First Snow For Many

197 Comments

3:37PM

Yes it’s upon many in southern New England rather quickly. Very dry air has allowed the early precipitation to drag cold air down and start many areas off as snow. This will add a little bit to the overall totals but warm ground and also warming at mid levels will keep this from being a significant snowfall. The rest of the storm should behave as previously advertised, and then get out of here by early Friday, with nice weather for the Veterans Day Weekend (the holiday being observed on Monday).

Full discussion later on another update. For now, updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THROUGH EVENING… Rain Cape Cod & Islands, rain and snow RI and southeastern MA, snow interior MA and southern NH. Temperatures ranging from the middle 30s to middle 40s NW to SE across the area. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH except 25-45 MPH with higher gusts in coastal areas especially Cape Cod & Islands.

OVERNIGHT: Rain coastal areas, mix/rain inland but some snow hanging on northwestern fringes of the forecast area before mixing. Snow accumulation through the event ranging from a slushy coating to around 1 inch on grassy surfaces except 1 to 3 inches in higher elevations. Main roads will remain just wet. Steady temperatures. Wind NE-N 15-35 MPH with higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of rain and drizzle. Highs in the 40s. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain or snow showers ending by late at night. Lows in the 30s. Wind N 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs around 50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 55.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 62.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY OBSERVED: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 66.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 40. High 52.

197 thoughts on “First Snow For Many”

      1. Thanks. I just stumbled across that capability, so I thought I would share it. It keeps updating. You can go back and look at it later and see where the rain/snow line has advanced.

        It is currently moving Eastward.

  6. Parts of western CT have now already registered 3 and 4″ snow totals. We’ve had a little over an inch in Manchester (just east of Hartford) but most of that came in the initial heavy band around lunchtime. It has been snowing lightly since but with not that much additional accumulation.

    1. that would have just enough to shovel whats on the driveway and make a small sleeding hill for tomorrow 😉

  7. Those winter weather advisories have been expanded across CT with the exception of the southeast corner. Clintonsville, CT just north of New Haven has the highest total so far in CT with 4.5 inches.

  8. Look how sensitive Logan’s temperature is to the wind direction:

    072054 39 31 0324G31
    071954 37 33 0123G31

    At 3PM temp 37, wind dir: 10 degrees
    At 4Pm temp 39, wind dir: 30 degrees.

  9. Some of you know who I’m talking about, but an independent forecaster has issued a map with 6+ in a wide swath from CT through MA, NH, and into ME. The same also told a Hyde Park landscape owner to sand due to 2 inches of snow coming to Boston tonight. It will be no surprise that I completely disagree with both of those forecasts.

    2. TK, portions of CT are already closing in on 5″ and it is snowing hard. I can easily see some places in the western part of the state exceeding 6″. Probably won’t happen in NH or ME – I agree -but this snowstorm has far and away exceeded what I thought would happen down here.

      1. I can see that, but much of that is due to the meso banding that already took place there.

  10. Well, spoke too soon. Snow and wind have really picked up here again. Co-worker who just left said the road conditions are rapidly deteorating and icing over now that it is starting to get dark.

  11. Woonsocket seems to be another hot spot along with central/western CT. Snow has accumulated an inch and another moderate to heavy band is about to move through. With sun setting, look for additional snow accumulations in northern RI. As OS stated, the rain/snow line appears to be moving east. The center of circulation all afternoon appears to have gone more east than northeast locking in the cold air. A widespread few inches of heavy wet snow may not be out of the question for interior SNE before rain finally wins out. I question how much precip. may be left over, however, by the time the transition from snow to rain. Hmmm?

  12. Rain/Snow line collapsing SEwrd. Almost to Easton. Just about to Logan as well.

    Looks pretty Wintry here. Car tops are begining to whiten.

    1. Hadi,

      According the guidance I have viewed, It “should” stay snow for
      quite a period tonight. Then the models differ. It is “supposed” to
      go over to rain overnight sometime, but who knows. This cold air
      just might win out and keep it snow???? Will be interesting to see and watch
      in any case.

  15. Hey Vicki I hope this isn’t too late- could you put me in for 43 inches at Logan for this year? Thanks!

    1. It’s definarely not too late. I shot myself an email reminder but please make sure I actually tell u I recorded it

      1. OS may I say that I am so very happy you are here. I do enjoy your links. Some I don’t understand but I am understanding more than I was. And many I totally get 🙂

  19. Just got home after a very hairy ride from Walpole to Easton. Even tho snow started later in Walpole I had almost a half inch on my car! The visibility was terrible and all secondary roads were snow covered. I drive down 27 thru Sharon then foxboro and it was still snow until I hit Mansfield, then boom, heavy rain and no evidence of snow on the ground. Temps in Easton are at 36 with a heavy rain, kinda sad to be home.

    1. That stinks. It’s a very fine line. But, even in Easton I wouldn’t be surprised if it went over to snow there too.

      1. I was driving to the south shore. Norwood, Canton, Stoughton, Avon to Holbrook. At the Norwood airport everything was snow covered and it was coming down hard. By the time it too me to drive to Canton (Randolph / Washington Street) it was all rain and bare ground.

    2. 4-6 inches will not occur in that widespread an area–perhaps confined to western CT and a few isolate interior areas of the highest elevations. If this were the middle of winter with a cold ground and different sun angle, perhaps that would have come into fruition

    3. Yea Scott, i dont think those areas to the north get those numbers. The precip has had a difficult time moving north and its a lot lighter up there. As alisonarod said, the areas in western CT will be the jackpot. This thing doesnt get more north than it is now, then moves east and weakens

      1. Let’s also look for southwest of the city down toward providence. It’s been snowing moderately down there for a while now. Almost appears a coastal front has set up. The eastern track of this storm has not been picked up well by the models. Hence, the cold air remained well established. Like I said, if this were the middle of winter, most of SNE would have picked up several inches of snow + from this system.

  28. Just came in from a drive from Hanover to Marshfield. Parts of Marshfield are without power and the rain is blinding and windswept. In the heavier bands of precip, could see the wet snow flakes on the windshield.

    This is almost, if not more intense than Irene and maybe a bit less than Sandy. Certainly mpre rain.

    1. I believe it. Tide guage at Boston Harbor shows 2 foot storm surge, resulting in an 11ft high tide in the Harbor. Problems usually start at around 12.5 ft, but this wind has been strong since morning, so the waves must be huge !

  32. Im just amazed. My mom is in Attleboro, literally 10 miles west of me, and its 33 deg and snowing hard there. Its 38 here and pouring rain.

    1. Away from the marine influence is key in November due to water temps in the 50s. A few miles inland makes a tremendous diff!

  33. In the literal sense, it is November 7th ( as opposed to being October)…..however, in the big picture, here we have another very early season cold storm. It will be interesting to see if snow and cold ever really show up again later in the month or during the winter. But, for the next few weeks, its here we go again. The cold air is really going to retreat to northern Canada and it looks like its mild times ahead.

    1. Snow in November doesn’t have the same correlation as it does in October so the upcoming winter could go either way.

  35. Latest radar trends demonstrate a weakening storm. Not very impressive as advertised. The only surprise was snow in a more widespread area than anticipated. It was still nice to see the snow however.

  36. On the radar, there’s a batch of heavy precip on the south shore. Though a good part of it is rain, I wonder if this precip area is being enhanced by ocean effect precip, with the cold, dry air from north central New England being driven southwestward into the south shore, while crossing the 52F ocean ???

    1. Is it cutting off from north to south? I am on route 295 S in Cumberland and it is snowing pretty well. On my way back to MetroWest.

      1. It is just dissolving. More and more communities are experiencing pockets of dry air. If you look at the radar, it is beginning to look like swiss cheese.

  38. Anyone see the end of the 18z gfs run? Interesting its saying a decent size storm off the east coast on thanksgiving?? A looonnggg way out but maybe something to watch.

    1. That would be great. But I never give credibility to storms advertised by the GFS this far out–especially an 18Z run.

  39. Definitely a night for kicking the car back into low gear… the driving conditions are horrendous out there! Please be careful, everyone. It took me an hour and forty-seven minutes to commute just twelve miles home. Cars are sliding all over the place!

  40. I agree with Tom. Very windy and rainy here. As I suspected the wind is the issue here.
    Same in Boston when I left around 4pm with the wind and sideways rain with a tad bit of snow shower activity. Very nice weekend on tap for all those services.

    1. John, just a few miles inland it has remained snow for most of the day. This was not advertised in as great an area as it continues to snow.

    2. An area with moderate to heavy snow, according to both the 7pm obs and radar is the NYC area into northern NJ.

  41. I’m interested in hearing TKs thoughts on the lack of changeover. I do not see a changeover to rain in many places until after most of the precip shuts off. Northern RI starting to experience moderate snows again.

    2. Extremely dry air in low levels allowed significant cooling…

      Once the precip lightens up that’s it.

  42. Still snowing here in JP. Been snowing since about 2:30PM or so.
    Cars, Grass and even my street is covered with snow. Looks like a real
    Wintry scene out there. And there is a heavy band approaching. Not sure it will
    make it, but if it does, we could get a quick burst of a few inches.

    BTW, the Euro Advertised this.

    1. I see that. Many areas are getting more snow than advertised. It was only supposed to be mixing in JP let alone snow covered. Even Pete Bouchard had “all rain” for your area on the evening show.

    3. Good. Let it pile up in the longwood medical area, I just need a trace for a call in. Got a couple jobs about to start here.

    1. Just went outside and sure enough, HUGE flakes of snow! Its like pancakes coming down from the sky 😀

  47. An hour ago we had some snow on the windshield as Tom mentioned. But now it’s mixing in a bit more.

    1. Hadi,

      Since I was at the office, I guestimated it started in JP around 2:30Pm.
      Happy to see I didn’t miss by too much.

      That means, it went to snow fairly quickly after it commenced.

      Still snowing….

      Don’t know IF that heavy stuff to the South will make it. It shows some
      signs, then backs off a bit. We’ll see.

    1. Thanks for posting. Snow totals where it was supposed to snow!
      And some pretty impressive wind as well.

  52. Watch for dry air invading from the south and southeast. Where is TK!?! His thoughts would be appreciated. Snowfall totals well over done for this storm. Models did not pick up storm track or cold air.

    1. I was out driving. Not that bad around Boston and NW suburbs, just a little snow on the roads in a few places.

    1. Yes, And the 12Z run this morning advertised snow, pretty much in the
      areas that are getting it. Check out the Wundermap that is still available
      for the 12Z run.

  60. Leave it to Mother Nature to prove me wrong. I said the the other day that we used to be able to count on at least some snow before Veterans Day but not so for a bit. It feels like times gone by. And it looks as feels wonderful.

    Moderate wind blown snow now. Just starting to coat the road and driveway.

    1. You gotta love her

      TK not weather related. We got some of the best chicken pot pies a while back. My husband thinks the place was in Woburn. Sound familiar?

      1. Funny u mention chicken pot pie Vicki. I made one for dinner tonight, was in need of some warm comfort food

  62. Not a trace of snow on the ground 495 @ rt. 2…dry slot ever going to erode to get some accumulation out here, seems its snowing everywhere else?

      1. I’m in Brighton by St. E’s and it’s snowing sideways! Have 2″+. Beginning to look like a winter wonderland 🙂

  68. My route home takes from Smithfield, RI via 295 South to 95 North to 495 North and then I take 16 or 126 towards Ashland/Sherborn. MassHighway was AWOL for most of my trip, highways were worst than DPW maintained roads.

    The snow was heaviest closer to the route 1/495 or 1A/495 interchanges in Foxboro/Wrentham. Looked like there was about 3″ to 4″ inches on the ground in that area around 7pm. By the the time I got to Sherborn, the snow was drier/lighter – maybe 1 1/2″ or so.

  70. snow really starting to pick up here everything is now coated with abouta half an inch of snow…. I tested my snow maker last night and it works but im not going to start using it yet i will wait until the weekend before or after thanksgiving. even though this Yesterday would have been a good day to do some snow making its going to get warm again

  71. Harvey just posted a new snow map. He shows 2 to 4 on the south shore but its still raining here. Is that even possible?

  72. With colleagues in Amherst MA-The dry air intrusion has prevented any snow from accumulating and it seems that way throughout the CT River Valley of MA.

  75. Still coming down at a really good clip.

    Hard to imagine that we are near a third way from our snow total from last winter. Lol.

  76. Interesting how much of the Cape with this typical nor’easter has many power outages and yet, had very few with Sandy.

  80. Biggest snowfall total I have seen so far with this storm Wallingford, CT north of New Haven with 10 inches. There are places having level 2 snow event 5-10 inches. This storm overacheived in places in terms of snowfall.

    1. Thats crazy to think about since the closest locale with a WWA as of this morning was northern worcester county i believe

  85. 9.3 inches last season was the total. I am going to go out on a limb and say were going to at the very least double that total this winter.

    1. I love sleeping when it’s windy. I have to add I also prefer watching snow totals tonight to election results last night. Sleep well everyone

  89. Crazy ride home tonight. Left Quincy and it was 37 with strong winds and heavy rain, took 24 instead of 95 and just encountered rain, headed up 495 from 24 and hit a wall of snow just as I got to Mansfield and the temp dropped to 32. From there to North Attleboro it took me another 20 minutes, double the normal time. Everything is covered here with around 4 inches of snow.

  90. Snow is letting up here. Got no accumulation in Easton, and I’m even on the Mansfield side of Easton. Oh well. At least my ride to work tomorrow will be through a winter wonderland!

    1. Is cool to see tonight. Should look even better in the morning, since it is stuck to all of the trees! Just took the puppy out for the first time in the snow. She didn’t want to come in. I on the other hand was ready to come in as soon as I went out. She loved to play in the snow, but she is only 11 pounds and it is up to the top of her legs. Guess I will be shoveling her a path this winter, each time it snows. Have a good night Ace.

  91. There’s still some heavy snow bands in SW CT that are nearly stationary. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone down there ends up with over a foot

  92. It will be interesting if Logan gets to its monthly average of 1.3″ tonight. Still snowing good and sticking here in Dorchester. I believe it has been awhile since it snowed during the month of November in much of SNE if memory serves correctly.

  94. I remember hearing a while back the date of the first snowfall will determine how many snow events we get during the winter. So I guess we should plan on seven snow events.

  96. Models look on decent agreement that the NAO may reach its most positive point in several months next week.

  97. hey guys, my name is kane, and i am new here, atleast to commenting, i have been following this blog since last year and read everyones comments and predictions and find them very joyful. anyways its interesting to see that this storm dropped most of its totals in ct. i have a brother from wallingford, ct and said its nuts there. and vicki please put me down for 38.5 for boston! thank you

    1. Just saw this now. Welcome! I’m going to repost it on the other blog so your snow guess is recorded.

  98. Ok I finally caught up to this one!! The blog has been updated yet again!

    Why do I have a feeling this may be one of the hardest storms to forecast of the entire cold season?

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