Snowvember

155 Comments

10:56PM

Nothing like coming out of the gate on the first “winter storm” of the season and stumbling. Not to be too harsh on myself, this was not an easy one to spot ahead of time. Even knowing it could snow in some places, the areas I’d have expected more got less, and some of the areas I expected less are getting the most. Other people are saying “snow? what snow?” because they haven’t seen any, just rain. Some areas that have been cold enough to snow throughout this have also seen very little, due to dry air holding strong. Heavier snow has largely been the result of meso-scale banding, or strips of heavier snow which can sit over one area for a while. As of late evening, some of the heaviest amounts of 4 or more inches have occurred southwest of Boston. The jackpot in New England has been in portions of western and southwestern CT, where 5 to 10 inches of snow have occurred thanks to intense banding much earlier in the day and continued banding into the evening. Some coastal areas are finally getting into snow after being stuck in a rain area due to warmer air from the ocean.

To note, the most important cause of the snow today was very dry air that was in place as the moisture from the storm started to fall into it. For a while most of the precipitation was evaporating, but as this happens, the air above is cooling and that cooling gets pulled earthward as precipitation falls. In this case, it cooled enough in many areas to support snow for much of the early to middle portion of this storm event. That, combined with banding, has resulted in a highly variable snowfall distribution.

Now that I have missed most of my forecast snow amounts, it’s time to reset, finish off the rest of this storm with updated info, then look ahead to the coming days.

During the next 24 hours, the low pressure area responsible for the snow as well as pounding surf along the coast and some strong to damaging wind in South Coastal New England will weaken and spin its way east of New England. Unsettled weather will continue but with milder air at all levels precipitation on Thursday will be mostly in the form of light rain and drizzle. Drier air finally works in as the low departs Thursday night. Friday through Monday (observed Veterans Day) will feature fair weather with a cool start then a warming trend. A warm front may push an area of clouds through the region Saturday night into Sunday. By Tuesday of next week, high pressure building to the north of the region will push cooler Atlantic air in along with clouds. A disturbance trying to move in from the west will bring a chance of showers at some point later Tuesday into Wednesday – too far away for precise timing of course.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Bands of snow except mix/rain over southeastern MA, Cape Cod, & Islands. Additional accumulation up to 1 or 2 inches in a few areas. Precipitation tending to become lighter and mixed with rain/drizzle toward dawn. Lows 32-38. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts except 25-35 MPH with higher gusts over coastal areas and some higher elevations.

THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of light rain and drizzle, but some mix may still occur inland areas early. Highs 41-46. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Starting cloudy with any light rain and snow showers ending. Gradual clearing overnight. Lows 30-35. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Low 33. High 55.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY OBSERVED: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 70.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. PM showers. Low 44. High 53.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 41. High 51.

155 thoughts on “Snowvember”

  2. Thanks for the update TK. Just got in from a quick (not very) run out for milk. Main roads are better since being treated, but side roads including my driveway are not. Hopefully, the shovel can go back down to the basement for at least a couple more weeks! Still working with the rakes.

  3. Odd storm with deep pockets of snow here and there, Sherborn never broke 2″, but there were spots within 5 or 10 miles that doubled or tripled what is on our front lawn.

    Took the dog for a final walk a moment ago, felt like sleet. It was a miserable wind driven stinging sleet. The old boy did not care for it much either. Short walk.

    70 sounds perfect!

  4. Thanks tk, a BIG suprise, ended up with 3.2 inches!! Now the next question is how long will it take to disappear with 65 degrees on Sat and 70 degrees Sunday nevermind Friday when it will be in the 50’s? Be safe and have a nice night sanders came through and r done to pavement 🙂

  5. I blew this one. nice little hit at work. Taking a quick break before we head back out. Still snowing but not really sticking now.

  7. My wife just called and no power. She said the wind is howling bigtime. Very cold here in Boston, I got a reading of 33 .degrees.

  8. Thanks TK !

    24 hrs of sustained winds 20 to 25 mph, gusting to 40 mph and it continues this morning. Per the radar, some convective bands of rain pushing onto the south shore.

    Wouldnt be surprised if some delays or cancellations due to power issues start showing up south of Boston.

    Looking forward to the warmer weekend weather !!!

  9. Very different conditions as I headed into work. Rainy and raw a home with a temp of 39 and a howling wind. When I got to Braintree I noticed some snow on the sides of the highway and the temp down to 34. Here in Norwood it is 34 and snow every where!

    While I was waiting for my coffee at a drive thru in Canton, all the sudden all of the snow slid off of the canopy and right onto my truck. Scared the day lights out of me.

    I hope you enjoyed the snow, drive carefully!

    1. We had our work cut out for us last night. I would like to know the last time we had snow like that in November.

      1. I remember several in November – as I had said before it was not unusual to have snow before Veteran’s day. The one that immediately comes to mind would have been just before or on Thanksgiving 1990 – I’m pretty sure it was 90 and not 89.

        1. I remember one in the late 80’s too. We got easy rain and then thunder and lightning and a switch to snow and got 10 inches.

            1. My ipad autocorrected my son’s girl friends name last night – the problem was it autocorrected it to an old girlfriends name.

              I wonder if we are talking about the same storm. We were having our last addition put on and it was still open so had to shovel the inside.

        2. I disagree Vicki c it doesn’t snow usually before Veterans Day hence why it’s unusual to snow before Veterans Day , lets be real it’s not normal to get 3 inches of snow in nov, the reason why I say this cause I just had breakfast with 25 people and the talk was how unusual it is to have 3 inches of snow before thanksgiving,, BIG conversation 😉

  10. I wonder if some of these heavier showers are helping to transport some more winds down to the surface because the wind in general and the wind gusts are fierce. A few of the wind gusts seem the strongest right now of the whole storm.

      1. coastal I also learned that the flashes and arcing can come from fuses – they make more noise than the transformers when they blow.

  13. The wind has been constant in Plymouth. I have to admit I was getting nervous at times thinking a tree would fall on the house. Bring on that 70 degree day!

  15. Thanks, TK.

    It isn’t snowing or raining in Sudbury right now. Very little wind. We got about 2-1/2 inches of heavy, wet snow. Around 2:00 or so in the morning it sleeted for awhile. The wind was really blowing – the sleet was hitting our house so loud it almost sounded like hail!

  16. Good Morning and thank you TK. I heard Pete apologizing for the forecast this morning – he is not alone and that to me is what weather is all about – being unpredictable. There is a reason she is called MOTHER nature.

    If we got 2 inches I’d be surprised. As is the case with rainshine, the sleet at 2:00 wakened me. I got up and plugged my phone, etc in for fear we would lose power.

    On the fanciful side, I am always amazed at the different sound wind has in summer and in winter. I knew just from the sound of the wind that it was snowing.

  17. Looks as if it was a coastal front that was responsible for the enhanced snowfall amounts just southwest of the city down toward northern RI. I have to give huge credit to Old Salty who saw this coming since very early yesterday morning even though the other METS did not. Good job OS!

    2. Harvey yesterday AM did offer this via a tweet:

      @HarveyWCVB: All trends are colder with this storm…expect rain & wet snow from Prov. to Boston along I 95….all snow N & W of 128

      1. Having Old Salty on the blog was a breath of fresh air! Thanks for your expertise OS and providing such great info. Can’t wait to ride out the winter storms with you and everyone else on the blog!

  18. TWC now named the storm coming into the west coast. At this rate they will be all the way through the names by the end of December.

  19. I got 5 inches of snow in Westwood. Huge surprise. If this nor’easter didn’t weaken, we would have measured this snow in terms of feet, not inches…

  20. Moderate sleet now falling in Woonsocket again. Looks like bands coming in from the east once again perhaps marginally warm enough for rain/sleet.

  21. You can see the center of circulation nicely on radar just east of cape cod. That eastern placement also kept the cold air locked in.

  23. Alisonarod,

    You are being so kind. I simply looked at the Euro and reported the results.
    The Euro clearly advertised the snow. I just don’t understand why Mets
    didn’t pick up on that. I think some Mets went with the Nam or Nam/Gfs blend.

    The Canadian and Ukmet also strongly hinted at the snow.

    When I headed out this AM, it was raining quite heavily with some sleet mixed in.
    Temp was about 35. I took a measurement of 3 inches. Not sure how much melted/compressed overnight, so we “may” have picked up closer to 4 inches.

    Hadi did you measure?

    Well, now we can relax until the next event.

    1. Hadi,

      We were snowing LONG, long before It changed over at Logan.
      Amazing what a few miles does.

      Logan sticks right out into the Harbor. All Boston records SHOULD
      be recorded at the Boston Common, NOT Logan airport. It is pure silliness!

      1. If records were kept at the Boston Common since records were kept, do u think Boston’s average seasonal snowfall would be a lot higher?

        1. Certainly higher. How much is hard to say.

          If the current ave is say 42 inches. I’d say it would
          be 44,45 or 46 inches at the common or something like that. Just a guess.

      1. My house is not in the photo. Mine is behind and to the left
        of the photographer. Mine is the oldest of the 8 houses on
        the dead end street, built in 1875.

  27. 60’s-70 this weekend, that’s gotta put a 🙂 on your face 😉 I can’t remember the last time it snowed enough in nov for plows, have a great day everyone, I feel like If it snowed on May people would say “well it’s not abnormal for it to snow in May” haha have a good day everyone

  28. I do not envy any Met, esp in New England. It was a damned if u do damned if u dont situation yesterday. All reliable guidance up until yesterday was in decent agreement on this storm. It wasnt until the first model runs came out yesterday morning that started showing more snow, and it was only a couple at that. The problem is, it was just one run. If the mets had jumped on one model run, and the models were wrong, they would be tarred and feathered for forecasting snow if it never came. They would be branded as “model watchers.” They did not have the luxury of even a couple more model runs to show some consistency to base a forecast. Most went with their gut, that conditions were not conducive for the amount of snow some ended up with. Its gotta be a tough job.

      1. True. Sometimes i feel some mets, esp TV mets for whatever reason are reluctant to weigh more heavily on the EURO. The NAM is usually the model of choice for short-term forecasting but it has been dreadful since last winter.

  29. You know,

    After reading Ace’s post, I thought back to the old days when Bob Copeland
    was forecasting. I remember one time that he went with his gut and forecasted
    a foot of snow while ALL other mets forecasted rains. Guess what? We got a foot of
    snow. There was another time when BoB Copeland nailed one. All other mets
    were calling for a system to go OTS. Mr. Copeland correctly predicted a HIT.
    It hit.

    Point being, sometimes you have to take a stand.

  31. Hate to bring this up, BUT…

    As nice as it is to have snow already, I wonder if it isnt a good sign for the rest of the winter. We know snow in Oct is usually a sign of less snow for that winter. I know its Nov, but really, its only been a week since the last day of Oct. I cant help but draw parallels to last years volitile weather pattern around this time of year to the current pattern.

  33. I would be shocked if there is a repeat of last winter. It has snowed in November and we ended up with above normal snowfall. 02-03 winter comes to mind when we had accumulating snow that November the day before Thanksgiving.
    Don’t have to worry about any snow for a while as a nice warming trend is coming.

    1. I have bee thinking since last spring our winter could resemble 02-03. It seems to me that our last winter,spring and summer have been very similar to 2002.

  34. From Elliot Abrams on the Accuweather blog:

    By the middle of next week, a cold front will advance into the Northeast and move off the coast. However, the air behind it does not look to be as cold as the air mass now in place. Beyond next week, numerical forecasting models become less and less accurate, but there are hints of another cold air mass and maybe snow in parts of the Northeast around Thanksgiving.

    1. Well now ………… everyone remember it is never too late to change the snow predictions and if you haven’t given yours just send them along !!!

  35. If you look at the NAO it peaks around plus 1 then it looks to start going down to neutral to slightly negative so that makes sense with colder air for Thanksgiving and the possiblity of wintry precipitation. I would not be surprised to see snow around Thanksgiving. Its happened three times in my life 1988, 2002, and 2005.
    I will give credit to The Almanac predicting a snow and rain between the 4th-7th of November. They got very lucky. Will see if there big storm predictions happen in mid December, mid February, and late March.

  36. Last night was one of the worst drives I have experienced in some time. I had a meeting to attend near Norwich, CT (about a 45 min drive normally from my office in Manchester). Took 2.5 hours after navigating around closed roads, having to turn around a few times to bypass steeper stretches of road that were strewn with cars and couldn’t get up the hills. When I was actually moving, traffic was crawling at 10-15 mph. Everyone was very much caught off guard by the amt of snow and the timing of the storm during the afternoon rush hour. There was a lot of black ice that began forming under the snow as it got dark/colder and plows were having trouble getting through since there were so many cars on the road. Plus, the first snow of the season always catches people by surprise. Quite a mess. Lots of school delays and cancellations this AM, though thankfully the roads are now in MUCH better shape!

    We had a widespread 4-10″ snowfall here. I had 5″ at my house, there is 8″ at my office in Manchester (east of Hartford). Northern New Haven County had the jackpot with most locations receiving 10-12″.

    One TV met here this AM admitted that he “totally blew the forecast” and was very apologetic that he “let a lot of people down”. I don’t envy the meterologists today!

    2. Clintsonville the winner with 13.5 inches of snow in CT. Areas in CT that typically get the most amount of snow had the least
      amount of snow along with southeastern CT. That heavy band setup shop central and southwestern CT.

      1. Indeed – by the time I got to Norwich, the roads were just wet and they only had an inch on the ground (the reason they didn’t cancel my mtg). Conditions were much better closer to the RI border.

        1. Where the records are kept for shoreline CT at Bridgeport came in with 8 inches. Typically the shore gets
          about two feet of snow on average. For inland CT records kept at Bradley International Airport only 3.4 inches.

          2. That’s what most surprised me about this storm – shoreline communities from New Haven to Stamford coming in with 5-8″ totals due to the dry air at the start of the storm and the more northerly wind component that developed. Even Central Park in NYC received 4″!

  37. Anyone know when the winds are supposed to subside down in the Plymouth area? It is still so blustery down here.

      1. Thanks Old Salty….have a friend who is in the Manomet section of Plymouth and she had a tree come through her window. She is a bit frightened now and is hoping it subsides soon.

        1. My wife works at the high school in Plymouth and was amazed by how bad the winds were this morning. She said a lot of her coworkers who live in Plymouth had their power go out for a period of time last night.

  38. If I am not mistaken all Boston climatology records were kept at the Common until 1936. I have no idea as to why they have been at Logan ever since.

    Who the heck lives at the airport other than a bunch of seagulls, snowy owls and overworked traffic controllers? lol. 😉

    1. I agree Philip and it really is not representative of Boston and the nearby communities because of its proximity to the ocean

  39. so, with the storm weakening, how will it affect the name? will it be winter depression Athena, Athena remnants, or supernatural Athena (substitute for “extra tropical”)

      1. Forget Athena, “Brutus” is now churning up in the Pacific. At this rate, we will be on Zeus by Christmas. Then what!??

        1. Its crazy. Those types of storms in the northern rockies happen almost on a weekly basis during the winter. I can almost hear the people of Montana laughing.

          1. Totally INSANE!!!

            Those folks at TWC need to get back on their
            meds! What kind of lunacy is this? I’ll bet anything it was some corporate big wig who forced it down the throats of the staff!

            I just don’t see it that it was the staff who came up with this.

  41. Cold Weather and Strong NE to N winds have dropped the ocean temps a bit.
    The latest for the 3 bouys near Boston:

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Last Updated: Nov 8 2012, 12:04 pm EST
    Water Temperature: 52.5 °F (11.4 °C)

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Nov 8 2012, 12:50 pm EST
    Water Temperature: 51.6 °F (10.9 °C)

    8443970 – Boston, MA
    (BHBM3) 42.355N 71.052W
    Last Updated: Nov 8 2012, 12:48 pm EST
    Water Temperature: 51.1 °F (10.6 °C)

      2. My guess:

        The waters certainly won’t cool more during the upcoming
        milder spell. With the Sun angle so low and the nights
        long and cooler, I suspect that they won’t go back up either.

        So probably they will pretty much maintain.

        Again, just my thoughts. Any others?

  42. I wish I had time this morning to blog…..

    The rain this morning was not the small drop, thick rain of last evening………it was tropical torrents with huge raindrops. During those showers, the winds were most intense. Except for the cold, it was tropical storm conditions and I am now certain that for Marshfield anyway, this 36 hr barrage of strong winds and impressive rain totals place the overall weather comditions of this northeaster ahead of both Irene and Sandy.

  43. Statistic from Tri-State Weather’s FB page: Most of the NYC Metro area saw more snow in the last 24 hours than the entirety of last winter.

      2. Charlie did you see my question re having two totals for you. I have 21.7 and 21.3 – no idea why. Which do you prefer?

  44. I am reposting this comment from a newcomer, Kane, posted last night.

    I apologize as I did not check the pending comments from last night until just now.

    Vicki, part of this is directed toward you. 🙂 Here it is…

    _________________________

    hey guys, my name is kane, and i am new here, atleast to commenting, i have been following this blog since last year and read everyones comments and predictions and find them very joyful. anyways its interesting to see that this storm dropped most of its totals in ct. i have a brother from wallingford, ct and said its nuts there. and vicki please put me down for 38.5 for boston! thank you

        1. I have it Hadi – I felt so badly about not seeing it the first time, I got out of my recliner by the fire (manhattan as ordered by Longshot on the table) and headed for my computer to make sure I got it !!!

  47. Charlie all sign point to average or below average temps. The snow on the other hand is just too tough to tell

  52. Welcome Citizen Kane, I mean Kane.

    You’ll find it pretty civil hear.

    Please have at it.

    Of course it will be fairly quiet for the next week or 2, then it should
    heat up pretty well.

      1. Wouldn’t it be something if the stars aligned again and produced
        another Sandy??? Yikes, there’s a scary thought!

        I think that whatever this turns out to be it will move NW, then N and then NE and good-bye long before it gets near the US coast.

          1. Almost looks like 2 tropical systems! One at about 156 hrs and another day before thanksgiving. Strange.

  55. Astronomical low tides saving the day along the immediate coastline.

    It was pretty cool though up in Brant Rock as sea foam flying through the air made it look like it was snowing. In a few spots, the ground is coated…..high tide in 2 hrs, with a little bit of water currently coming into the village courtesy of splashover from the seawall.

  56. As of yesterday, Logan for the first 7 days of November has a -4.4F temperture departure and that will probably drop under 5F when today’s negative anomoly is averaged in.

  57. Vicki, could you please post amounts in ascending/descending order. Upon drinking some excellent cabernet last night, and having some new visions I may have to reconsider.

  59. Here you are Longshot – shreedhar I just recorded yours. Hadi, did you respost – I looked quickly – so if I have Manhattan, Longshot,I should have some positive inspiration???

    MikeyMac 79.0
    Coastal 62.0
    Old Salty 60.0
    Nick 56.8
    Nick 56.8
    tjammer 54.0
    Haterain 52.3
    Mark 50.3
    Cat966g 50.0
    Retrac 46.0
    Scott 45.0
    Shreedhar 43.0
    Shotime 42.5
    DS 41.5
    Kane 38.5
    Philip 37.4
    Sue 36.2
    Captain 33.0
    Longshot 33.0
    Tom 31.0
    Scott77 29.0
    Joshua 27.0
    AceMaster 25.9
    Rainshine 24.0
    Charlie 21.3
    Vicki 18.3

    2. Vicki thanks — I’ll give it another thought. And yes a Manhattan will help. I was last year’s winner solely because of cabernet and a badly written weather article I read.

      Where is TK’s projection?

      (You have Nick twice)

  61. The snow melts just so fast, we were planning on going sledding after school tommorrow, I’m not sure any will be left, couldn’t do it today 🙂

    1. When I was a kid, I liked to pile up the snow from shoveling in one spot and see how long it could last into the spring. On a good season, usually could get some snow into late March or very early April.

  62. I have a suggestion…….

    Maybe next year, we should pick one other location in New England besides Logan that is away from the coastline and submit snow predictions for that location as well.

  63. I think u should do a spot like Boston and then do Worcester, I’ve got 21.3 at Logan and 70.8 at Worcester, the snow melted quick, I think the ground is still warm, 39 degrees as of now 😉

  65. Logan officially received 0.4″ but I suspect that the other sections of the city received a lot more.

  66. A band sneaked up on LSC this evening, dropping a half inch to an inch. Can’t wait to view it in the morning.

  67. It was good snowball making snow (while it lasted) 😀 My back still hurts from shoveling haha. And I am not a big fan of this wind lol…

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