The Divide

83 Comments

11:24AM

The next 7 days will feature 3 days of warming, a day of transition, and 3 days of chill. Today through Monday (long Veterans Day weekend for some) will feature fair weather and a warming trend, with sun much of today, clouds tonight as a warm front pushes through, a return to some sun Sunday, and even more sun with Indian Summer warmth for Monday. Tuesday will be the divide as a front moves across the region bringing a cloudy sky and a period of rain or showers at some point (working on the exact timing). Wednesday through Friday will be governed by high pressure and will be bright days with a typical November chill.

Forecast details for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Sunshine & a few clouds (more clouds showing up in the western sky late day). Highs 50-55. Wind up to 10 MPH mainly NW to N.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 40-45. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Clouds & sun mixed with clouds dominating the morning, more sun afternoon. Highs 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-55 except a few upper 40s in deep valleys/bogs. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (VETERANS DAY OBSERVED): Sunny. Highs 70-75 except 64-69 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain or showers. Temperature cooling through the 50s.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 31. High 44.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 24. High 45.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 26. High 48.

83 thoughts on “The Divide”

  1. Thanks TK for the update. It looks like more chill returns after Tuesday into the rest of next week…and thanks for your response in the previous blog. We will see what happens with that potential.

  2. As Philip stated, from the NWS:

    THERE ARE SOME LONG-TERM
    PREDICTIONS OF A SHIFTING NAO BACK TO A NEGATIVE PHASE…AND THERE
    ARE SUBTLE HINTS PER THE ECMWF OF A TROPICAL WAVE PSBLY INTERACTING
    WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
    BEAR WATCHING.

    Well, I didn’t see much on the 0Z Euro nor the 12Z GFS.
    Something interesting on the 0Z Canadian:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=TT850&hh=216&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=TT850&hh2=000&fixhh=1

    long long way off

    1. Given the recent pattern, I’d pay attention to this, at least put it on the back burner for now…

      1. In my oppinion we absolutely don’t even come close to a winter like like last year. I am anxiously awaiting your forcast. I believe also this will not be the last stretch of warm weather. I think we have some warmth into mid December. Of course warmth scattered in with some bearable cooler days.

  3. Thanks TK.
    Enjoying this nice stretch of weather! The snow is melting so I could finish bagging the remaining leaves . Thankfully all the trees are empty.
    Will see what happens next weekend and keep an eye on it but nothing right now that is of great concern.

        1. 18Z GFS has it as well:

          http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121110%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=228&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F10%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=18&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  8. Just met Barry Burbank at the ski show, I was all giddy and nervous, lol. The BZ booth has a snowfall prediction contest for snow at Logan. Broke the ice by asking him what his prediction was. Had a nice convo with him. Said if he’s not busy he may take a look at the blog and post once in a while. Keep an eye out for him TK 🙂

    1. Thats cool. If l met jc Monahan that would be me. I like her. I believe he knows about us here as him and Tk are pals.

      1. He asked for the address of the blog and said he’s been so busy hasn’t been on. He gave a TK answer about his snowfall prediction, greater than 9 less than 108, haha. Did say rest of Nov will be a good indication.

    4. I’ll be seeing Barry in early December. I’m sure he’ll stop by the blog if he has a chance. Probably not easy for them to do from the station since they have to deal with emails, FB, and phone calls as well as getting the weathercast ready.

  10. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How wide is the typical bolt of lightning?

    A) Pin
    B) Pencil
    C) Arm
    D) Small tree

    I got another one right! 🙂

  13. 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The blue in the sky is caused when sunlight is scattered primarily by?

    A) Dust
    B) Ozone
    C) Nitrogen & Oxygen
    D) Water vapor

      1. I think they win.Happy Veterans day to everybody. God bless America. Any on here Thank you. If you see a veteran or know a veteran please thank them for keeping us safe.

  18. I think TWC’s identification of the western US storm as Brutus…….is now just a pretty strong autumnal cold front. Yes, it did give Montana a lot of snow and there is a deep cold airmass in its wake….however, as of now, there’s not much more snow falling in the US and the majority of the weather remaining is the rains and convection associated with the cold front.

  19. From the NWS:

    BEYOND SATURDAY…
    THERE ARE STRONG INDICATIONS WITHIN THE LONGER-TERM GUIDANCE OF THE NAO REVERTING BACK TO A NEGATIVE PHASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST 11/0Z GFS HINT AT A POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER SETUP. CAN ONLY SPECULATE FOR NOW AS LIKELY THE ATTRIBUTABLE PACIFIC ENERGY HASN/T EVEN BEEN SAMPLED BY UPR AIR SOUNDINGS. BEST ADVICE IS TO BE ATTENTIVE AND AWARE OF AN UPCOMING CHANGE IN THE WX PATTERN.

  20. Hi everyone–I need some help. I might (underline and bold that) be running a science club this winter and I was thinking of incorporating a little bit on the weather as a regular routine. Anyway, I need a refresher in reading maps and models and I remember that some great websites were posted last year. Does anyone have them handy? Thanks

  21. For snowfall I am going with 37.4 inches of snow. I hope it way more than I am predicting. I am still maintaing the idea of snowfall below average and temps that will be above average but not as much as last year. I am think temps average about 1 degree above normal.
    2-3 widespread 6 plus inch snow events.

        1. You are very welcome 🙂 Spectacular day JJ. We lit a fire in the firepit after the game and all sat around it just enjoying New England. We just came in.

  22. 12Z GFS for Thanksgiving Morning:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121111%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_240_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=240&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F11%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=91&nextImage=yes

    Sure hinting at some prolonged stormy weather ahead……

    1. hmmmm – hoping it is wet and not white for all of those traveling. We have a tree lighting ceremony that is a tradition in our family to attend the Saturday after Thanksgiving. I’m not feeling good about the weather 🙁

  23. Hey Guys,

    Hope everyone is having a Great Sunday!!

    Did anyone notice that there seems to be a possible storm on or near thanksgiving and then another potential storm 5 days later around the 27th… I know this is the GFS and is a lonnggg way out but the end of the month looks to be pretty busy weather wise.

    Any thoughts? What is the EURO hinting at?

  24. The weather is so enjoyable right now I’m not even thinking snow. Very shocked that I was doing snow removal a few days ago. Enjoy this weather.

  25. Answers to today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizes

    1) How wide is the typical bolt of lightning?
    A) Pin
    B) Pencil
    C) Arm
    D) Small tree
    The correct answer is B, Pencil

    2) The blue in the sky is caused when sunlight is scattered primarily by?
    A) Dust
    B) Ozone
    C) Nitrogen & Oxygen
    D) Water vapor
    The correct answer is C, Nitrogen & Oxygen.

    I believe TK got both right.

  32. I highly suggest people go to the lowell parade saturday after thanksgiving, watch for the piccolo’s usually the 3 row from the front 🙂

    1. Awww. That’s cool. I’d go except our family tradition is to head to the Humarock Christmas festival. Enjoy Matt

  33. The amount of damage that i saw down in Ct was sad to see. I had a blast down there.
    They moved our performance time to 8 pm ,so we had 4 hours at the hotel to kill and just hang. go to the arcade etc and then we performed and then there was an all night party 🙂 It was fun and it was not cold out

  34. Many of you have probably already retired for the night but the blog is updated. Have a great week!

Comments are closed.