Transition Tuesday

72 Comments

7:27AM

A cold front will slice through the region today with showers, even a few thunderstorms, and cooling air. This will set the stage for a chilly and dry remainder of the week. Sunshine will dominate Wednesday, sun & clouds will share parts of Thursday & Friday as a weak disturbance drifts through the region, and sunshine is expected to again dominate at least the start of the weekend. More cloudiness may arrive later in the weekend as we watch an area of low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north setting up a battle zone.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, with a few downpours. Temperatures cooling through the 50s and into the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Slow clearing west to east. Lows 32-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 50.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 49.

72 thoughts on “Transition Tuesday”

  5. Temp dropped from 62 to 52 when that same wall of wind and water came through here just after 7:00 this morning. The house shook it was so strong.

    We are hovering at 51 now with a gusty wind from the WSW/SW

  6. For the next possible system on or about 11/20 or 11/21….

    Gfs has a weak mostly OTS system.
    Euro has a fairly strong system as does the Canadian.

    Canadian:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&hh=204&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1

    Euro:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&hh=216&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=192&fixhh=1

    The Euro is warm, while the Canadian show some marginally cold air at 850MB.

    Still a long, long ways off.

    And from the NWS:

    NEXT WEEK…LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
    MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A COASTAL STORM WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING/TRACK/AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE A WINDY EVENT ESP ACROSS THE COAST LINES. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING AS THIS EVENT LOOKS IT COULD OCCUR OVER SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES. AGAIN STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION.

      1. You mean the GFS? Sure. Agreed.

        Like you said yesterday, Too bad this set up wasn’t in January.

        Oh well. Surprises do happen.

        I wonder what the Canadian is seeing that the Euro isn’t??

        Still, I’d trust the Euro more, so this is destined to be a big
        rain and wind maker.

  7. I guess I’m just talking about the overall pattern O.S.

    I’m sticking by my guns that we won’t see a significant pick-up in snow until after the new year, then look out.

    The water will need to cool off quite a bit though or some of these big storms are going to be a disappointment for you guys near the coast. Could be one of those winter’s where it’s snowing in N.Y.C. and raining in Boston. Feel good about snow here in the interior regardless.

    EURO is king until it’s not

    1. Gotcha.

      We shall see.

      In colder Winters that I can recall, Ocean temp was down to 46 at
      Thanksgiving. No way that happens this year. However, given how warm
      the water was this summer, it is coming down nicely.

      If we get that COLD high to the North, we’ll be in business.

      I remember an early season storm, December 13th, I believe, where we
      had a nor’easter with the NE wind off of the relatively warm ocean. The air
      was so cold that is just didn’t matter.

      1. 1960 December 12 Pre-Winter Blizzard in Northeast
        20.4″ of snow at Newark, NJ; 17″ at New York City, NY; 13″ at Boston, MA: Nantucket, MA, had 15.7″ with wind averaging 36 to 51 mph

    1. It’s the air temp around 5000 ft. It’s one of the components needed to be cold enough to support snow.

      1. Yes. Some charts show just the temperature, while others show
        the temperature and the winds. Some charts depict the surface feature with 850mb isotherm lines (areas of equal temperature).

        The 2 commonly used features to predict snow vs rain are
        the 850MB temperature (should be -3C or less, although it
        sure can snow with 850mb temp just below freezing) and the
        1000-500MB thickness.

        from METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

        The 540 line is in reference to a 5,400 geopotential meter thickness between 1000 and 500 millibars.
        Thickness is a primary function of the temperature of the air and a secondary function of the moisture content of the air. Temperature and moisture are combined together to produce the virtual temperature. The average virtual temperature from 1000 to 500 millibars determines the thickness displayed on analysis and model progs. Warming the temperature or adding moisture to the air will increase the virtual temperature and will therefore increase the 1000 to 500 mb thickness. When the thickness becomes low enough, snow can reach the surface. Through researching the correlation between thickness and precipitation type, the 540 thickness is used “generally and loosely” as the non-snow / snow line. Thicknesses of 540 or lower indicate snow is most likely (50% of time a 540 thickness will produce snow at elevations below 1000 feet) and thickness values of greater than 540 most likely indicate non-snow precipitation. There are many circumstances in which a lower than 540 thickness can produce rain and a higher than 540 thickness can produce wintry precipitation

        1. OS – thank you – I just copied and printed and stapled to my pile of weather 101 sheets………now to remember I did that 🙂

  11. Assuming next week’s east coast storm materializes, it will be yet another in a series of storms that the residents of NYC and NJ don’t need. They just can’t seem to catch a break. If I am not mistaken, there are still many without power. 🙁

  12. 12Z GFS has this future system OTS as a tropical type:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121113%2F12%2Fgfs_atlantic_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=204&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&storm=&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F13%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=68&prevArea=ATLANTIC&prevImage=yes

  14. 12Z Euro in. Interesting, not for snow, but for serious storm of wind and rain.

    at 168 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2012111312&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=168

    at 192 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2012111312&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=192

    at 216 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2012111312&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=216

    at 240 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2012111312&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

    As you can see, this model run has this thing sticking around for a long time.
    Also, over time upper atmosphere is cooling. At 216 hours, 850MB temps
    below freezing in Western NE. At 240, below freezing everywhere.

    2. That run just seems odd. Its almost like a random area of convection southeast of FL spontaneously combusts into a storm and crawls up the coast.

    4. if you look at the 240 hour you can see another area of low pressure forming northwest of the center of the storm up in canada

  17. Could the Farmer’s Almanac be right again this month?? Has a storm on Thanksgiving with a cold rain from Virginia and Maryland to SNE, mixed with snow mountains.

  18. Hey AceMaster…. Prior to that is shows stormy weather between the 16-19 then turning colder. It will be interesting to see if any of the big events they predict happen this winter for Mid December, mid February, and late March. There is heavy snow threat of 6 plus inches for mid January. They were right with the snow and rain between the 4th-7th. You throw out as many guesses as they do your due to get something right eventually.

  20. Hi Everyone,

    Longtime lurker, former occasional participant of the WBZ weatherblog, and former member (only say that because I never get emails anymore) of the Todd Gross group (might have even met some of you at the party that was held many years ago in support of Todd). Just wanted to let everyone know of the strange sky over Chelmsford right now – cloudcover is BRIGHT ORANGE with rain coming down; more of an orange glow, I’m assuming because of the sunset, and over towards the northwest, I see clearing, blue/orange sky! Amazing how it’s lighting up my room right now – it’s very eerie.
    –Deb

  21. The CPC continues to show above normal temps for the next 2 weeks which doesn’t make sense at least to me given the upcoming -NAO. I see nothing higher than “normal” temps at least for the next 7-10 days and if anything slightly below normal temps at times.

    The CPC does has the above normal precip correct IMO.

    2. The CPC has been going with the above normal for precip yet we continue to average mostly below normal in the moisture department.

      I do agree cool temperatures overall for a while.

        1. Logan is reporting -7.12″ for the year so far and -1.57″ since September 1st. The latter is somewhat surprising to me considering Sandy, the recent nor’easter and a few episodes of downpours here and there since fall began. I would think that next week’s Thanksgiving rain should put a dent in that -1.57″ at least.

          1. It does seem surprising…however, there have been long dry stretches….

            sept 9-27 : 13 days, no precip…overall .93 inches

            Oct 1-27 : .95 inches overall…..14 days, no precip

            Nov 1-12 : .57 overall……9 days no precip

            I think it rained a lot more on the south shore from that Noreaster last week.

          2. Philip did you see what it said for metrowest. I’m sure we are below and am actually surprised the Sudbury is up as much as it is since I didn’t think we’d had that much rain

            That brings about a curious question. Because the rivers are up is that a true reflection of the ground water? Does anyone know?

  22. For folks along the coast, thank goodness the next big storm is a week away. The next 3 midday tides measure 12.2 ft, 12.4 ft Thursday and 12.2 ft Friday. Those are monsterous high tides that cause very minor flooding issues even without much wind at all. At least by next Tuesday and Wednesday, they fall down to 10ft, thus giving some room for a storm surge.

    1. I talked to the woman whose home we rented at Humarock last January, Tom. She has renters there now who weathered sandy. She said they never even lost power. The house sits on the breach. It must have been awesome.

      1. I’m sure it was awesome and yes, we seemed to be very fortunate with power during Sandy and the noreaster last week, which I thought when considering its duration of strong winds, was worse than Irene or Sandy.

  23. I heard this evening on WBZ radio’s Nightside w/Dan Rea that there are 160,000 customers still without power in NYC and NJ. It has been two weeks now. 🙁

    Maybe N-Star and National Grid aren’t so inept after all?? If I heard correctly, LI Power & Light provides electricity to those locations.

    1. Awful…….I wonder if those are areas/communities where all the power lines, etc were completely wiped out and the utility companies are having to start from scratch ????

      1. Hmmm…good point Tom but from what I have seen on the national TV newscasts there are also many whose homes are relatively intact but still without power as well.

        In some respects, could this be even worse than Katrina?

        1. I don’t think any are inept. They simply can’t staff for a disaster such as this. They do learn with each storm. I know some places have power restored but without an electrical inspector (code) can’t turn it on. It just isn’t safe. Sadly there are many homes that were also built where they should not have been. After Hugo SC said homes on Sullivan’s Island and Isle of Palms right on the coast couldn’t be rebuilt. They have all been rebuilt. Go figure.

          1. Good point Vicki…I agree. Years ago I took a course in New England Geography at Framingham State College (now University) and the professor always preached as to how insane it is for homes to be built right along the coast. At the time he was referring a lot to the Blizzard of ’78 which was the big storm at the time.

  24. Hey Vicki…you asked how Metrowest is doing in terms of precip so far and the best I could do is find stats for Worcester.

    -3.18″ for far this year and -0.44″ since September 1st…obviously so much better than Boston’s Logan. Was it last week’s snow that made the difference for Worcester??

      1. LOL yes but nothing higher than a 47 because tomorrow’s temperatures won’t let you get a passing grade hahaha

    1. One thing they forgot to mention was that storms extremely similar to Sandy have occurred and have taken that track, the difference being there was very little real estate to destroy when it happened. 🙂

      Storms are not getting stronger (in general), they are getting more thoroughly observed and analyzed than ever.

      Interesting article though.

      I remember when the Global Warming alarms went off in the 1970s. They said by the year 2000 cities like Boston would be underwater. Still waiting… I think they overestimated the sea level rise. Ocean Boulevard at Hampton Beach was supposed to be underwater now too. 🙂

      As I always say, regardless of my stance on how much we impact things, we should ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS act as if we do, and take great care of the world we live in. It certainly can’t hurt to do that. 🙂

  28. From the NWS:

    MONDAY AND TUESDAY… PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TO THE ECMWF MODEL AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF ITS CONSISTENCY AND ITS TRACK RECORD. A JET MAXIMUM OF 100 KTS NOW LOCATED 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOS ANGELES IS WHAT EVENTUALLY FEEDS INTO THE SYSTEM TO MAKE IT BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND VERY SLOW MOVING. A STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT WOULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…CAUSING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS…VERY
    SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION…HEAVY RAIN…AND EVENTUALLY POSSIBLY SOME SNOW IN NORTHWEST INTERIOR AREAS.

    Yikes. Pretty strong wording for something that far off.

    1. That is strong for this far out. I prefer the Euro’s timing of the event at this stage, but am actually leaning toward a blend of that with the GFS for my next update.

        1. It’s more out to brunch than lunch…

          It has some ideas ok, and others just not so good. The 18z was a tossaway. It still has trouble resolving the longer range. I think I am using the faster onset of the GFS but the longer linger of the Euro for the influence of the low pressure area. In other words, I’m leaning toward a cloudier Monday than the Euro would indicate, but I am keeping the storm around a bit longer (Wed/Thu possibly). If the Euro keeps relative consistency we’re very likely to see just what it is depicting now.

          Thanks again OS for your incredible contribution to this blog.

  29. Hello everyone, it appears we have a wet thanksgiving on the way, that stinks bc of thanksgiving football ugh, goodnight

    1. The Euro would have you believe that. But there is still some credibility to the solution shown by the GFS, at least to the point we may end up with a storm system far enough offshore to fan its cloud shield over the region but keep most of its precipitation offshore. So far away so it’s just not certain.

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