The Chill Is Back

82 Comments

12:18AM

The warmth is gone, as is the rain, the really picturesque sky at sunset Tuesday, and the super bright rainbows that some got to enjoy. That was all part of the transition between a very mild air mass and a return to a chilly stretch of weather, which is getting underway now and will last for several days. With high pressure centered mostly to the north of New England, a north to northeasterly flow will be dominant, keeping the weather mainly dry. Clouds from the departing cold front will linger over Cape Cod and the Islands today.  Also, an astronomically high tide combined with a north to northeast wind may allow for some minor coastal flooding in prone areas especially midday Wednesday and Thursday. Some low clouds from the ocean may occur over southeastern Massachusetts Thursday. Some high clouds may cross the southern New England sky from late Thursday into part of Friday as a weak disturbance at high levels of the atmosphere propagates through. Otherwise, sunshine will dominate most days through Saturday. Beyond this, the questions start. We do know there will be another storm developing south of New England, which will try to push northward, while high pressure holds strong to the north. This may eventually lead to increasing northeast to east winds, a sky turning cloudy, and a rain threat. The timing  suggest we make it through Sunday dry followed by a rain threat early next week. This is still far off with much uncertainty.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Lots of clouds from Plymouth County MA through Cape Cod & the Islands. Sunshine elsewhere. Highs 43-48. Wind N-NE 10-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds depart Cape Cod & the Islands. Clear elsewhere. Lows 25-30 inland valleys, 30-38 elsewhere, mildest near the coast and in urban centers. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Occasional low clouds from the ocean over far southeastern Massachusetts, the Cape and Islands. Mostly sunny elsewhere (some high clouds from the southwest later). Highs 42-47. Wind N-NE 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Occasional low clouds from the ocean over southeastern MA, Cape Cod, and the Islands. Variable high clouds elsewhere. Lows 25-30 inland, 31-36 coast. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 44-49. Wind NE-N 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 24. High 47.

SUNDAY: Brightest sun north, filtered sun south. Low 28. High 48.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain south. Low 35. High 45.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain south. Low 35. High 45.

82 thoughts on “The Chill Is Back”

  4. For the same logic that the negative NAO and the corresponding atmospheric setup drove Sandy to left hook directly into the east coast……….the forecast of the NAO eventually transitioning to only a slightly negative NAO in several days kind of gives me belief in the EURO’s solution that this next storm approaches, but then is allowed to move away. It does eventually get turned back into the Maritimes and if the EURO is correct, captures some Canadian cold and drives it into the northeast.

    1. I agree Tom. We will have to wait and see. I can’t see it hanging around that long with only slightly negative NAO.

  6. Regarding Next week’s system:

    GFS still OTS, but with a MUCH stronger system than depicted yesterday.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121114%2F06%2Fgfs_atlantic_189_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=189&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&storm=&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F14%2F2012+06UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=40&prevArea=ATLANTIC&prevImage=yes

    Euro fairly close to what was depicted yesterday:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&hh=192&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1

    Canadian depicts a big rain producer:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&hh=156&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=204&fixhh=1

    There are timing differences amongst the models as well.

    Snow, if any, would probably be confined to the back end and in more North Western
    areas.

    At this early stage, I am inclined to think it will be all rain most everywhere, even up North.

          2. North,

            You are welcome.

            I am pleased that you like those links.
            Sometimes I get carried away with them.
            Hope it is not a problem for anyone.

  8. WBZ forecasting a Tues night/Weds rain event. Not good for travel. I think the AAA is predicting 44 million travelers for T-giving weeknd with about 40 million of those being by car. Up a little less than 1% over last year.

    Would like to see the rain out of here for Thurs.

    1. Interesting. I guess they are discounting the Euro. I still am not buying it 100% since the NAO will only be slightly negative. The GFS could still come around to the Euro solution though.

  10. 12Z GFS still has an OTS solution. After it passes our latitude, it blows up
    into a bomb in the North Atlantic:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121114%2F12%2Fgfs_atlantic_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=168&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&storm=&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F14%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=31&prevArea=ATLANTIC&prevImage=yes

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121114%2F12%2Fgfs_atlantic_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=204&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&storm=&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F14%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=ATLANTIC&prevImage=yes

    1. From the NWS:

      OF COURSE…THESE
      TRENDS CAN CHANGE…ESPECIALLY AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE TODAY AND GETS BETTER SAMPLED.

      Does this show the short wave?

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F14%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=700_rh_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NPAC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=000&areaDesc=North+Pacific+-+Western+US+Alaska+Western+Canada+Hawaii+North+Pacific+Ocean&prevArea=NPAC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      Does this?

      And/OR this?

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F14%2F2012+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NPAC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=000&areaDesc=North+Pacific+-+Western+US+Alaska+Western+Canada+Hawaii+North+Pacific+Ocean&prevArea=NPAC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      Any thoughts?

  11. Hey everyone my name is kane and i am new here in terms of posting, i have been following you guys for about 2 years now when we use to post on the cbs4bostonwebsite. I really enjoy reading these blogs since i am a big weather freak and i am looking forward for the future . I am 21 years and i attend umass lowell, ( i saw their meteorology lab, pretty cool!) and Hey old salty, thanks for clearing out the other day for the 850 mb line. I have another question, i always like the links you post on the blog, for an instance this one right here http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121114%2F12%2Fgfs_atlantic_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=168&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&storm=&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F14%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=31&prevArea=ATLANTIC&prevImage=yes
    can you tell me where you can see the 850 mb on this map? and isn’t the 540 line means 32 degrees at surface? sorry i know i have a lot of questions, but i just wanted to clear these things up

    2. Kane, A couple of things:

      First of all, welcome again.

      On the map above, there is no 850MB line. It is a surface chart.
      It depicts the conditions at the surface, however, this particular chart
      has temperature isotherms (equal temperature lines) for the 850MB level.
      The first dark line to the North of our area is the 0 Degree Celsius line or 32 Degrees Fahrenheit. (freezing line)

      As you know, the air pressure lowers as one goes up in altitude. Sea level or surface usually averages around 1000MB or so. Well 850 MB represents approximately 5,000 feet.

      The 540 line represents the thickness of the 1000-500MB levels. (ie surface to roughly 18,000 feet) The lower the number, generally speaking, the colder
      the layer of air. Therefore, when we are within the 540 line, generally speaking there is more than a 50% chance the precipitation would fall as Snow.

      In general, we look at 850Mb temperature and the 540 line to forecast snow.
      We like to see 850 temps below -3C and of course be within the 540 line, however, it can still snow outside of these parameters. It is just a general guideline.

      Hope this helps.

    2. I did have a suspicion that the Euro was going too slow and over amplifying this and the GFS has had a bad few weeks, but I think that may be a good solution, if the NAO does not go more negative than forecast.

      It is only one run, so lets see if we now get consistency on a OTS solution for both now for a few runs.

      Thanks for posting the Euro link Old Salty, I didn’t have that one.

  15. From the NWS at Upton, NY:

    THIS LOW NOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS MON-WED…BUT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS AND RAIN ON THE NW FRINGE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA THIS FORECAST PACKAGE…BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS COULD EVEN IMPROVE MORE SO IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

    NWS at Taunton, MA still maintaining Nor’Easter. Someone is asleep at the wheel!
    😀

  16. The NWS out of Upton, NY in the past few discussions has been going with an offshore storm and no major impacts.

  17. Love the weather today: Chill (my absolute favorite is a 25-30 degree day, but I’m not complaining), bright sunlight revealing the last remaining red leaves. I don’t know which trees are the last to turn color and lose their leaves, but they sure are beautiful. I call these the November torches, perhaps the most spectacular foliage of all, especially given that they’re the last ones standing, with no competition to divert our attention.

    One minor beef I have with weather forecasters is something I heard on multiple forecasts yesterday evening: “Tomorrow sun will not be warm, as it is a November sun.” I think this is inaccurate and misleading. The temperature (and feel) today is determined not so much by the angle of the sun, but by wind direction and speed. A bright sunny day with a calm southwesterly would probably yield a 10-15 degree spike in our temperature (perhaps more). Certainly last year we had our share of those, right through December.

  18. Latest from the NWS at Taunton MA:
    (someone woke up, but they haven’t given up totally :D)

    MOST OF THE 14/12Z MODEL SUITE…INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES…TRACK
    A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FARTHER OFFSHORE FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. DECENT CLUSTERING AMONGST THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SUITE FOR A DAY 6/7 FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT THOUGH…THINK IT BEST TO TONE DOWN THE PROBABILITY OF A NOREASTER TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER…WILL NOT CLOSE THE DOOR ON IT HAPPENING AT ALL JUST YET.

  19. If this was January I would be really bumbed out by the latest guidance…too bad Sandy couldn’t do the same.

    Since it would be just yet another rainstorm battering our coastline and many will be traveling, let it be a fish storm. 🙂

  21. Starting to see signs of the winter pattern becoming established.

    Cold & dry, kiss ’em goodbye (not all of them, but many of them).

    5. Kind of like your front end dumping last season. Does the last two storms not make you think well maybe this is a sign. I think old fashioned winter on tap, cold and snowy. Toning my number down a bit because weak el Nino not looking too be a factor/ where is it. Lack of acorns And no winter Outlook yet from Mr Judah Cohen. So 76.5 is my official number. Had the weak el Nino formed 100 inches was my call. People will be talking after this winter. First widespread snowstorm mid December, let’s for giggles just say plowable snow for December.

      1. My lack of success last winter has no impact on my confidence for this winter.

        Believe me, I’m always thinking. I’m a scientist.

        I’m well aware that Cohen had last winter right when many didn’t. That was last winter.

        If I’m wrong again this winter, I’ll own up to it, as always.

      2. John: Sure, he didn’t nail last winter, but looking at how often he is right in comparison to other models shows that the odds of him being right about this are pretty high.

      1. This winter may be similar to 2009-10 when we missed a lot of good snows and the Mid-Atlantic got most of them. That winter Logan got 35.7″ which is close to my prediction (37.4″) which I believe you already have Vicki.

        1. Ill be checking everyone’s that are added tomorrow and then will post all I have to be sure I don’t miss any. I have a 2 hr dentist appt in morning – ugh – but will keep a close eye

  23. Dont worry everyone….if the coastal track is mostly out to sea….there’s always clippers…….you know….a dusting to 1 inch of snow from the warnm front, that melts in a half hour in the 45F warm sector, leaving bare ground and then a 24hr arctic blast that follows, as the clipper explodes over the Maritimes.

    1. Yep a lot of clippers will add up to say…….18.3 inches :). Not that anyone could have guessed that exact a amount of course

  24. All it takes is 1 or 2 of near miss storms to come up at us and boom you got 30-35 inches right there. The key to me is that cold will be present. Anything can happen with the cold in place. 3-4 clippers can easily dump 10-20 inches totals. Thats how you get to my number 🙂

    1. Those clippers have to form in the right spot to get really good snows for SNE…and most of them either fizzle or intensify to our north.

    2. The problem with persistent cold winters is they tend to be northern stream dominated and you have to rely on clippers for the majority of snows. While it’s true that a southern stream phasing will occur once in a while you still have to be lucky enough to be in the right spot for a heavy snow belt. You also run the risk of a “too phased” setup when the big storms go inside and the rest of the time it’s cold/dry. I can see that being a potential problem (analog 1978-1979).

  27. Looking at the records at Logan for later this month, it was as low as -2 on the 30th. I guess it can get cold in November.

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