Dry & Chilly. Will It Last?

104 Comments

10:49PM

No big changes from the previous discussion. Dry, chilly pattern continues through the weekend. Watching an ocean storm for early next week, battling with high pressure to the north. The indications are for the storm to evolve a little further to the south and east, lessening the chance of direct impact from stronger winds and heavier precipitation, but probably close enough to at least through clouds over the region. Again, still far away, with time to fine-tune. With a big travel week next week, this forecast is very important.

In the short term, there will still be some issues with minor coastal flooding through Thursday at high tide times.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy intervals southeastern MA. Clear elsewhere. Lows 25-30 inland valleys, 30-38 elsewhere, mildest near the coast and in urban centers. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Occasional low clouds from the ocean over southeastern Massachusetts, the Cape and Islands. Mostly sunny elsewhere (some high clouds from the southwest later). Highs 42-47. Wind N-NE 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Occasional low clouds from the ocean over southeastern MA, Cape Cod, and the Islands. Variable high clouds elsewhere. Lows 25-30 inland, 31-36 coast. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 44-49. Wind NE-N 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 24. High 47.

SUNDAY: Brightest sun north, filtered sun south. Low 28. High 48.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 45.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain south. Low 35. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain south and east. Low 35. High 45.

104 thoughts on “Dry & Chilly. Will It Last?”

  2. Thanks TK! Glad to see that Saturday is still looking good. Can’t wait to celebrate Thanksgiving in America’s Hometown!

    1. Saturday may be a day that features 100% sunshine. We should be free of low clouds thanks to high pressure building almost right overhead.

  3. TK, thanks for update. As I said in a post yesterday, there will be 44 million travelers over T-giving weekend and the majority, 40 million, will be in a car. I am hoping we don’t get much rain — my daughter is driving up from NYC on Weds.

    Sounds like the weekend is looking pretty good.

    1. I was just looking at this. The GFS seems a bit messy with it’s long range configuration, as the 00z run had most of the storms staying well to the south due to strong high pressure building in at the same time storms got to the east coast.
      The Euro still doesn’t really show much change to the pattern yet, still waiting on that to really start getting excited.
      Although I’m hopeful the pattern going forward will be a fun one.

  7. Below are the totals I have – I looked quickly to see if I missed any last night but didn’t see anyone’s but John’s. Today is the day – the Ides of November if you will!!

    MikeyMac 79.0
    John 76.5
    Coastal 62.0
    Old Salty 60.0
    Nick 56.8
    North 55.7
    tjammer 54.0
    Hadi 53.9
    Haterain 52.3
    Mark 50.3
    Cat966g 50.0
    Retrac 46.0
    Scott 45.0
    Shreedhar 43.0
    Shotime 42.5
    DS 41.5
    Kane 38.5
    Philip 37.4
    JimmyJames 37.4
    Sue 36.2
    Captain 33.0
    Longshot 33.0
    Tom 31.0
    Matt 30.0
    Scott77 29.0
    Joshua 27.0
    AceMaster 25.9
    Rainshine 24.0
    Charlie 21.3
    Vicki 18.3

      1. well I think the winner is the person who said 18 inches……I’ll have to go check to see who that is !!

    3. You are all very welcome. I can’t really contribute to this great blog with weather knowledge so like to try to contribute in other ways. And this is tons of fun for me to do.

      Retrac – I was also thinking how the group has grown – and what a great group of people it is!!!

      1. You have a ton of weather knowledge to contribute. Keep up the good work. Somthing just tells me you will enjoy this winter. Do uou know anything about an iPad.

        1. Tx John you r kind. I love my iPad. I use it for everything from work to Internet to reading. I only read digital books now. And it has great kids apps. Like the iPhone. I know others here have one too

        2. I forgot. We are renting same home in Humarock next march that we rented last January. So we will be back in your area.

      2. Hi Vicki,

        Not sure if I put my guess in earlier or not (will check on that as I can’t even remember what it was…LOL getting old). Will let you know after I get out of some meetings.

  12. Models do look pretty boring for the coming days/weeks O.S.

    The holidays will make the time pass quickly.

    Big snow after new year!

      1. IIRC, 2 years ago, we didnt have snow till the day after xmas. Id gladly take no snow till then if it means a winter like that

  13. It looks like very ho-hum weather at least through Thanksgiving. The good news is it should be great for travelers. Not sure if I am reading the charts correctly but it does look like it will be a fairly cold Thanksgiving day and weekend.

  14. According to Henry Margusity, the GFS has something big for us around the 28th. By then the NAO will be at its lowest at -1 or so.

          1. hahaha – so he is not to be trusted? I have to keep a scorecard here to know who to listen to and who not to!

            1. V,

              To Charlie’s point, he seems like a nice guy. I’ like to have a beer with him in fact. But when it comes to winter storms he seems to put too much emotion in and makes some “bad” forecasts. His blog should be taken for entertainment only.

              1. ahhhh – good to know. Thanks. I never listened to him before Sandy so have no baseline.

                How about Matt Noyes? I hear a lot of people say they like him but I had never listened to him before Sandy either.

  15. I just ran the whole loop of the 12Z GFS out to 384 hours and it shows
    NOTHING, save an inside runner type going upstate NY as a rainmaker towards
    the end of the run.

    Boring…..

    Of course, thing can change with subsequent runs and we’ll look at the Euro as it
    gets into range. But as of right now, nothing to get excited about…

  16. Busy day… My aim is to post twice this evening. 1) Winter 2012-2013 Outlook. 2) Discussion and forecast thru Thanksgiving including important travel weathee. Both posts should be out by 9PM including my Logan snow guess. Have a great day!

    2. Did you give your snow prediction? Or is that part of your post? I try to check back but they are easy to miss

    1. Well it’s happening now here, some patchy drizzle around these parts and even had a shower earlier this am, I don’t think there will be in any way a washout but a few showers from time to time cannot be ruled out, north and west of Boston will see more in the way of sun 🙂

  19. Can someone concur that Logan to date has 0.0 inches of snow, I thought they got a little snow but report 0.0, thank you

      1. Thanks for reminding me tho as I also wanted to confirm those numbers. Courtesy of Tom go to taunton NWS and scroll down on the left to Climate then chose local. Select preliminary monthly data and then archived and you can view totals for the month you want

  21. Hey, anyone building a yard hockey rink this year? I’m thinking of doing it again. Just want to see if the pattern is going to lock in some cold first.

      1. Haven’t done it since I threw my back out about five years ago. I’m basically bone on bone for two vertebrae so I’m really cautious now. Between putting it up, clearing it, smoothing it and of course skating, it’s quite a strain on the back. Now that my kids are finally old enough to help I’m thinking of it again. Damn plastic is so expensive though.

        30’x50′ for size.

        1. Wow – that’s huge. My SIL’s is just for a 5 year old so is probably half that size. And it seems he is always working at keeping it smooth, etc. Last year it had just about frozen and the neighbors yard service blew all the leaves into it. But then as I said -it never really froze so it ended up not making much difference.

  22. On a positive side at least people should be able to get to where they need to. After next Sunday when people return home lets get some storms around these parts!

  23. anyone know good sites to look up for models!? and this is a random thought but who remmeberes the december 09 2005 storm when it was like snowing 4 inches an hour and we had tbunderstorms in eastern massachusetts and hurricane force winds in the south coast!. that was the most heaviest snowfall i ever witness!. i sure hope we have a storm that bombs out like that again

    1. Also December 9 1978 – thundersnow for both – the 1978 I was watching from the honeymoon suite of the Hyatt on Memorial Drive overlooking the Charles – it was spectacular – and yes I remember it since it’s my wedding anniversary – great storm. I was on a phone conference. I looked out the window and we had maybe a few inches. I looked not more than 30 minutes later and we had about 10 inches and I literally could not see the houses right across the street.

    3. I should give you fair warning, Kane! Once anyone says something that triggers a special memory for me, I’m off and running with a story. Sorry – I just can’t seem to help myself 😉

    4. For that Dec. 2005 storm, I remember looking out our front door in amazement at how hard it was snowing and jumping back a few feet when a flash of lightning came about.

      Down on the Cape, with the explosive deepening of the low, the wind gusts were amazing. I want to say a few gusts to 100 mph occurred. A lot of tree damage pccured on the Cape, as I recall. Here in Marshfield, we received about 5 inches of snow in 2 hrs and lost the power for several hours.

      1. Im not using one. Surprise Xmas gift for my wife maybe. Like she does not need for phone. Like pictures and net type thing. I know a mini just came out but not sure on that one. I know nothing.

        1. Ohhhh nice surprise. I was thinking of the mini for Mac. I have to look at the size. Does your wife read? Mac read a few books a year – maybe not even that many. Since he go this nook he is constantly reading. I use the nook and kindle apps on my iPad. It’s why I post here a lot. I read and then my mind wanders so I check woodshill – I’m using my iPad now – or a few other blogs. I check emails and the apps are limitless. My 5 yr old grandson has somehow figured to find all of the nursery rhymes on YouTube. Email me with any questions. I’d be very happy to help

          1. Thanks. My good buddy is a gadget type of guy.he is looking into it and we will be discussing it tomorrow night when we see each other. The bog thing is pictures. When all said in done this will cost some dough, oh well. My friend said I have many options. Thanks vicki.

      2. Vicki hello this is on a side note and I’m going to ask you a quick question,, why is Massachusetts in a housing crisis? Why won’t the towns and cities get together like they need to to build more houses, I don’t understand why each town simply just builds idk 50 homes/apts to alleviate this problem, I feel like our kids will not be able to live here bc they will be to expensive, I’m hoping and no offense ( the greedy and selfish generation) goes to these meeting to push for some housing, I would like your info on this as I respect what you think 🙂

        1. Charlie we would go around and around on this. I think we are overbuilding. There are tons of homes for sale. You and I will not agree on this and with all due respect this just isn’t the forum IMHO. Sorry

          1. Charlie. I will add that no matter how many houses we build that they will always be expensive. You can email me at cablars@aol.com. I just don’t feel comfy taking over here. Thank you very much for asking too. Perhaps we can come to a middle ground.

              1. Great. Just put Charlie in the subject and ill know its from you. If I don’t answer it means I didn’t get it because I will def answer :). Whenever you have time.

                1. I def think its good. Just surprised its so many houses all at once. Theres always activity in building but its usually slow

  26. I think I am going to stop looking at the GFS beyond day 7….now, if I can just do that 🙂

    The EURO, as a trend, I feel more comfortable looking at what it thinks 9 to 10 days out….and with that, maybe there’s an opportunity at a little camping after Thanksgiving Day. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  28. Vicki, that’s fine haha, and well i wasn’t born either jimmy james in 1978 so i wouldn’t know too :p. And if i remember correctly only the GFS had that the storm bombs out like that and showed all these incredible damaging winds, yet funny all the meteorologist disregarded that model and it turned out to be true! but then again this happens often, this winter i have a feeling it would be a tricky and hard to forcast!

    1. Kane I do remember some warnings by mets in 2005. I was supposed to attend the meeting and in the end chose to be on the phone. The prediction was for a lot of snow. However it was not for the bomb we got. I had been emailing my husband all day telling him to head home but he waited until the company let hum go at about 2:00. It took him over 6 hours to get home. 15 miles

    1. I turned the heat on…..between 4:30 am and 5:30 am. I’m not sure I’ve gone this long before. I did do the same two nights earlier in the month but then turned it off again

        1. Hi Vicky,

          Couldn’t find my old post…so here goes…part of me want’s to go a little on the high side but I’m going to end saying 26.9 inches.

          Thank you!!

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