2012-2013 Winter Forecast

12 Comments

My outlook for this winter is pretty straightforward, and will presented just that way. I’m going to spare going into detail on the technical stuff and we can discuss that in the comment section below if you are interested.

What I will say is that all major factors influencing climate were taken into account (PDO, AO, NAO, QBO, solar cycle, ENSO, among other things). The major players in the pattern this winter will be an easterly QBO (winds predominantly from the east at high altitudes over the equatorial Pacific Ocean), neutral ENSO (neither La Nina nor El Nino), an often negative AO/NAO (blocking pattern in the northern hemisphere), and a weak solar maximum (higher sunspot activity but not out of control).

I think the most important thing these lead to is a tendency for drier than normal conditions (which may become a problem as 2013 goes on). This is a pattern of variable temperatures but frequent spells of cooler than normal weather, which we have not seen for the better part of a couple years. The general pattern under this setup features a mean ridge position in the middle of the US with troughs dominating both the East and West Coasts. This pattern also favors frequent cut-off low pressure areas near or off the East Coast. The blocking may be fairly strong on a frequent basis, and this is the reasoning for the drier forecast. Blocking too strong would force many  of the storms to be too far south and/or east to have major impact on New England. This type of a pattern may spell out bigger snow totals for the Middle Atlantic.

So, what are we gonna see? I will consider the 2012-2013 winter to be December 1 through March 31, even though we can and do see snow in April and even as late as May. The winter overall should feature near to below normal temperatures, below normal precipitation, and near to below normal snowfall. The month by month breakdown:

December… Temperature: near to below normal. Precipitation: below normal. Snow: near to below normal.

January… Temperature: below to much below normal. Precipitation: below normal. Snow: near to below normal.

Feburary… Temperature: near to below normal. Precipitation: near to below normal.  Snow: near to below normal.

March… Temperature: near normal. Precipitation: near to above normal. Snow: Near to above normal.

Any questions, please go to the comments section below!  If it is your first time commenting, be patient as I need to approve you the first comment for each email.

12 thoughts on “2012-2013 Winter Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK!!

    Really can’t find much to disagree with on that forecast. The only thing I see is us getting nailed by 1 or 2 big storms with well over a foot which will bring us above normal snow. I do think overall we will be below normal precipitation, but due to the cold we will achieve above average snow. High snow ratios will help achieve the above average snow.

    1. Thanks Hadi, I did not see it on the blog. I must have missed it in the previous post. Anything above 9″ and I’ll be happy. I have a feeling that the south shore will get nailed this winter.

  5. Thanks Tk. So if I’m reading right you expect march too be snowy, interesting because March has been mostly snow free, but than again so was November till this year. Time will tell. I agree with coastals theory mostly but would include a wider area including the Boston area. I strongly believe this will be a very tough winter. A financial burden for those who heat with oil like myself. Did you see my question on Judah. Does he teach at MIT, I am going too try and contact him. The information I came across states he teaches there. Your thoughts are much appreciated on your winter call.

    1. I’m not sure what Judah does right now actually.

      The snowy March may not be overly so, but a few inches above the climatological normal.

      It is true that March snows have been absent for a couple years. I expect that to change this year, not to excess but we’ll notice it.

      And yes in case anybody did miss it above and on the previous blog, my # for Logan Airport for winter snowfall is 39.3 inches.

  8. Thanks TK and perhaps before renting at the beach for the month of March I should have checked your outlook!! Just Kidding. As you know I would LOVE a storm while there. Also, it was the only month we had so we will take what we can get. I don’t expect several 60 and even more above 50 deg days like we had last January but ….

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