Weekend Update

97 Comments

9:02PM

No major changes to the discussion. Summarizing, high pressure centered north of New England will provide quiet and chilly weather this weekend. Only some low clouds will come off the ocean at times in southeastern MA, Cape Cod, and the Islands, due to a north northeast wind flow of chilly air over relatively warm water. Early next week, storminess will develop in the western Atlantic but stay far enough offshore to not have a direct impact. What may happen is that the flow between it and high pressure to the north may send low clouds in from the ocean by Tuesday/Wednesday, and even without that some of the higher and middle clouds around the storm’s circulation would possibly expand over the region. As for travel weather heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, expect mainly favorable conditions.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows middle 20s inland valleys to middle 30s urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Low clouds at times from Plymouth County MA southward. Sunny elsewhere. Highs around 50. Wind N-NNE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 20s inland valleys to middle 30s coast. Wind light N-NNE.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with some additional low clouds in far southeastern MA. Highs around 50. Wind NNE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 51.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 48.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 37. High 47.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 52.

97 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  1. TK, I like that Thurs temp for sure. What do think the Pats kick-off temp will be?Sunday’s game starts at 4:30 in Foxboro.

  2. Thanks TK! Tomorrow will be a great day for a parade. Went to a tree lighting tonight in Plymouth. Not sure it is right to be lighting the Christmas tree before we have the Thanksgiving parade but at least the weather is cooperating for both events.

    1. Sue hmmmmm I had that thought when you said lighting but then there is never a bad time to start Christmas :). Enjoy the parade!!

    2. Hadi i do not even know why they are called “america’s team” Were called the patriots(name given to the people that started this country) Think about it, they should not be called americas team.

      1. That goes back to the brief time they were really good, winning alot, and there was so many fair weather fans that automatically liked the team that was winning. 🙂

  4. Have no fear snow lovers the IWS Model is here! It was buried in the back of my garage. I have dusted and plugged it in and it’s working fine. I have input all the latest weather data and Tks Winter Outlook which it had a good laugh that! 🙂 Its predicting a snowy second half of December to the beginning on February. Then a nice 11″ on March 8th except for the towns of Marshfield and Woburn where it will remain cold and dry the majority of the winter. Pembroke will experience a lot of graupel but Framingham will be a winter wonderland.

  5. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    This week’s meteor shower is composed of debris from which comet?

    A) Haley
    B) Halle Bop
    C) Swift-Tuttle
    D) Temple-Tuttle

      1. As much as I’d hate to see rain on thanksgiving, I still think that storm needs to be watched. I know the models trended away from the idea during last week, but we’ll have to see if they trend back. 12z GFS has a strong storm making a close pass to near miss on t-day morning but looks to have trended closer. Still a fees days away so wouldn’t discount anything.

  10. Well, there goes the very cold air of late Nov and early Dec. Good old GFS…..

    I wish I could change my mind this often, then again, that might make me a politician.

    1. And there goes the walk in fridge (the porch) I was without exception able to count on for thanksgiving food that didn’t fit in my real fridge

  11. It looks like we might have a pattern change with the latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 outlooks with below normal temps in the east and above normal temps in the west.
    Will see how this plays out.
    Bring on the snow once Thanksgiving weekend is over!!!

  14. You want a prime example of a model that is O.T.L.? Compare the last few panels of the GFS’s 12z run to the last few panels of the GFS’s 18z run. Yup. THAT, ladies and gentlemen, is a computer model that is not performing well.

  15. Answer to AccuWeather Trivia Quiz which I posted yesterday.

    This week’s meteor shower is composed of debris from which comet?

    A) Haley
    B) Halle Bop
    C) Swift-Tuttle
    D) Tempel-Tuttle

    The answer is D, Tempel-Tuttle

  17. There’s quite a bit of frost on the lawn this morning. Brighton’s 7am temp is a chilly 29 degrees. Brrrr!

      1. Heaviest here so far too. We drove to Watertown early for breakfast and it was nice to see the white frosted roofs with smoke curling from the chimneys

  18. Looks like a pattern change may happen late in the week into the weekend as positive ao and nao transitions to negative nao according to the latest NWS discussion.

  20. 00z-http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121118%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_177_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=177&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F18%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=51&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. I thought the 6z & 18z had less info than the other 12z and oz runs? I think will just have to wait and see what happens but at least the gfs is showing something coming around the weekend. Looking forward to the 12z run.

      1. The 06z & 18z runs lack balloon sounding data, still the most important means by which we gather data about what is going on now in the atmosphere. Without “now”, the computers cannot forecast “later”.

  24. well it got cold enough to make snow. i sold one of the two snow makers to get money for college and the one that i kept did not work last night 🙁 well im going to sell the parts and get a new one 🙁

  25. I’m not sure if I told this story before, but it has to do with having a snowmaker in your back yard, as a friend of mine, who I shall not name, from a town in north central MA once did. My friend would begin his snowmaking adventure as soon as it got cold enough in the late Autumn every year, and, drawing water from a passing stream, would continue to make snow, whenever conditions favored it, creating a pile in his yard. He’d lose ground once in a while when mother nature disagreed with him, but much of the time, his ever-growing pile of snow would tower higher and higher in his back yard. I’m sure he took great pleasure in building it, and just as much pleasure monitoring its melt each Spring (and in some cases early Summer).

    However, one particularly windy night, as he was making snow, unaware that the wind had shifted and was blowing significantly enough to carry his wafting man made ice crystals street-ward, the snow started to collect on the street in front of his house. After a police car passing by nearly spun out on his very localized poor road conditions, a knock was heard at his door. Upon answering, the officer said “I’m not sure what you are doing back there, but you need to point that thing the other way…”

    🙂

    3. tell him it happened to me but it was my neibors little kids asking when they can sled on the hill. i said somtime in December because by then enough cold nights happen in a row and i can get a good 3 inches down.

  26. In my opinion, today’s 12z run up through 7 days (til 11/25) looks very believable. Particularly next weekend, when it brings through a non eventful cold front with some chilly air behind it.

    After 7 days, who knows, but if your looking for snow…..it projects inside runner after inside runner…. Actually, this is probably a great sign for snow !!! 🙂 🙂

      1. If the GFS is showing all inside runners, then we are definitely either all set for snow :-)…or fish storms 🙁 .

        Either way we will see I guess.

  27. From WeatherWizard on the BZ blog looks promising for us snowlovers.
    Last year we saw one of the warmest winters on record and of course that meant a lack of snow us. Will it turn around this winter ?

    Yes it will. We are seeing early signals of a much more active winter come December and beyond.

  28. Hey Vicki…I posted this in the previous blog but you probably didn’t see it. Can you post the final snow numbers at your convenience? Thanks again, in advance. 🙂

    1. You are right that i didnt see it. Sorry :(. I will Post. My computer won’t be on again until tomorrow and I will try to remember

  29. How can we trust a model that produces a different solution on every run for the same day for 2 or 3 days?

    GFS = trash.

    ECMWF is the way to go right now.

  30. To Old Salty…

    There are 2 messages pending that you sent but where you spelled your username “Olds Salty”. I’m not sure if you caught that and resent them under your preferred name. If not, I can still approve those 2 messages. They went to “pending” because of the different spelling. The program flags that and puts it in the pending bin.

    Let me know if you want them published. 🙂

    1. Tk,

      Thank you. I did finally catch that, and you know, I decided to let them
      RIP. Thanks anyway and besides, they are not relevant now.

      Go Pats!!

      Taking a break from chores that need to be done prior to kickoff.

      1. Ok sir!

        For a moment I thought it was a plug for Oldsmobile retro vehicles. 😉

        Go Pats! This could be a shoot-out today.

    1. Good question. I haven’t found the answer and I’ve been searching since I graduated college………….

      1. It could be worse. You could have been searching since I left college.

        Omg no flag. Interception and TD. Sorry I can’t focus. Clearly

      2. GFS had a pretty good run through the summer and early fall though. Maybe it is just out on break. It did call the OTS first this week and the Euro then followed it for once.

        1. That’s the thing. It has good runs, but you never know how long they will last and then how long the model will tank. it’s too inconsistent. The Euro has issues at times but much less frequently. Superior model.

  32. Well the weather certainly cooperated for the parade yesterday and yard clean up today. Looking forward to a little weather excitement though!

    1. I think the overall pattern of below normal precip and variable temperatures with frequent cool shots will be continuing. This is the predominant winter pattern I think, as long as ENSO/QBO/AO/NAO stay mostly stable.

      1. Thanks TK, sounds like a snoozefest, lol. I hope there’s at least a couple anomolies thrown in there that give us some major snow events

        1. Always possible. And it’s also possible that my forecast gets blown out of the water too. 😉

  34. Hmmm might be time to turn the heat on. Husband is concerned he will slip on the ice on the way to the shower in the morning 🙂

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