The Week Ahead

42 Comments

9:17PM

Are you looking for good news about traveling around the area this week, and decent weather for Thanksgiving football games? What about Black Friday shopping? And what’s next weekend going to be like? I think you’ll like the answers for the most part.

High pressure will dominate the region Monday into Tuesday with fair weather. As the center of this high shifts northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes later Tuesday and Wednesday, and low pressure forms well southeast of New England, an onshore flow will promote some low clouds from the ocean at least in southeastern and eastern sections. Also, a trough in upper levels approaching from the southwest will also add some cloudiness to the region by midweek. Based on current expected timing, rebuilding high pressure should push the clouds offshore on Thanksgiving, which should be a fair and seasonable day. This high will sit overhead and milder air will make for a perfect Black  Friday. Looking ahead to next weekend, a cold front and low pressure trough should bring slightly unsettled and eventually colder weather to the region.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-27 except 28-33 coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 30. Wind NNE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds roll into eastern areas, sunshine holding on over locations to the west. Highs around 50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 37. High 49.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Clearing. Low 34. High 52.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 56.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 42. High 50.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 28. High 42.

42 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. Thats awesome news Matt! I’ve never skied there but I’m planning on skiing there this winter, got a ski & stay package at the ski show. I usually get the trip to Killington but thought id try someplace different. Looks like a great place.

      1. its my favorite ski area. highly recomend it. trails are maintained really well and i find it much better than killington

  2. Thanks TK! By the way some terrible news: gronk broke his forearm at the end of the game so he’s out for 4-6 weeks.

    1. Yes….12-4 or even 13-3 just turned into a big struggle to be 10-6. If I’m an opposing defense, the 2 guys needed to cover Gronk….one guy just got shifted to double teaming Welker and the other can either blitz Brady or double another receiver. Not good !!!

      1. I got my post game lesson this morning. We need hernandez back – NOW – because (and I quote) “it could be argued he’s as good as Gronk”…………..remember don’t shoot the messenger 😯

        1. He can do more than gronk. he can be a running back a reciever ,kick returner and tight end gronk can be a tight end and a reciever

      1. He never should have been on the field that late in the game with such a huge lead. Seemed like they sat most of the other regulars at that point too. I know its all hindsight but still. Big UGGHH

        1. My SIL said the same thing – especially since the pats play again in four days. I know it’s easy to be a Monday morning quarterback but you are right – UGH

  3. Thanks TK !!

    Great weather for Friday shopping ! Well, not me, I prefer the stress of last minute shopping, wouldnt want it any other way. 🙂

  4. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uR8BI4rzz50&feature=related
    at 24 seconds that is what i usually do but times it by 10 you see the hill with the two little ones. i aim the snow guns down the area where i will be building the sleeding hill. When i had two i had one at the base and one on the top aiming towards each other. but i sold one of them last march and the one that i kept did not work when i tested it. hopefully i can get a knew one set up. usually start the same weekend that my family starts to put up the outdoor lights. we usually have the lights turned on the first weekend of December. I try to have the hill functual for at least that night so the youngsters could use it and my neibors and parents can talk and stuff. cider and cookies. 😀 but i do not think i will be able to do it this year unless i it set up this week. and hope that the following week will be cold enough for snow making

    1. Maybe we’ll even get some of the natural stuff 🙂 ‘BZ seems to think December is going to be an interesting month!

  7. Good morning all.

    BORING weather to say the least.

    Sad, sad news on Gronkowski! What a bummer.

    Not much to report today. How about 0Z Euro predicted NAO

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zecmwfnao.gif

    2012111900z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: 112.641121
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: 48.1281776
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: -0.591159821
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: 30.2603569
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: 77.2965775
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: 78.3240051
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: 29.8576813
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -36.7929459
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: -102.528656
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: -138.244415
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: -121.845589

    We’ll see if it ends up meaningful or not.

  8. Is it too early to tell the timeframe for the showers on Saturday? The tree lighting in Humarock and the caroling and other festivities run from about 3-5:15 Saturday afternoon. Thank you!

    1. Vicki, the GFS focuses the shower threat earlier in the day while the Euro has the threat in the evening (after 5). In both models though, any showers look to be light and scattered. It’s not out of the question the whole day could end up dry!

    1. This winter is all going to depend on the duration and strength of blocking that occurs. If it is too strong, the mid atlantic gets clobbered like 2010 and many of our storms go out to sea. If it’s a bit weaker, we get more benchmark storms similar to 2011. I personally don’t think the pattern locks up in either direction and we will end up somewhere in between with a near to above normal winter, hence my 50″ prediction for Boston. The Accuweather forecast may not be far from what happens!

  11. Will be interesting to see what happens late next week – indications (both GFS and Euro) are that we will have a surge of cold air diving into the center part of the country by midweek and then sliding east with a possible storm forming near the Gulf of Mexico along the base of the trough and then moving towards the northeast. Will it be an inside runner or will the cold air precede its arrival and give us a chance for a winter storm?

  12. I saw that Mark, this early it usually takes a while for the cold air to make it here. It always seems to get hung up.

  13. Not sure if this is what you meant, of course, it would be TOO WARM in this
    depiction and the GFS is totally useless this far out. It is pure fantasy.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F19%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  15. GFS is garbage and the Euro is near the end of its run – it will be a wait and see for now. Still a long ways out but the setup is interesting and something to watch.

  17. The 12z Euro and the GFS have the initial storm mid next week cutting way west over Chicago before the cold air gets ushered in.

  18. I am hoping AccuWeather is right with their above normal snowfall. Even snowfall close to normal after last year would make me happy!

  19. I do not agree with AccuWeather about Sandy being a major indicator of the winter to come. Sandy was a tropical system that interacted with an existing and evolving pattern at mid latitudes. People are reading way too much into it.

    Their forecast overall looks decent in my opinion. They may have the above normal snow area a little too far north. The bullseye should be a bit more in the Middle Atlantic as far as positive snowfall departures.

    1. We experienced a winter where major blocking took place that produced major snow in the mid Atlantic. It appears some are calling for the same thing this winter but not to the same extreme. Can the same pattern happen so close to each other? If so how often can that occur? For me I discount any long range outlooks for many reasons. Blocking could be a bit weaker or position a bit to the west and the east coast is on the warm side. The major and consistant shifts in the hour to hour gfs runs and other models do not make me feel confident in any forecast beyond 48 hours. Euro is a different animal but is the best by far. The models are only tools the mets us to guide them to produce a forecast. It is the mets interpretation of the models that I question at times. Media and hype driven? Yes some are guilty of that. Then there are some that simply want to be conservative so that they don’t have egg on their face. We have mets on this blog that would rather under shoot low than over shoot because the fallout is less painful. I lot easier to adjust up than down.

      1. It is possible to have a similar pattern that close together.

        Very well-written thoughts. Thanks!

  20. I think NWS may be giving a little too much weight to the GFS.

    Does the government put out memos to their forecasters telling them to use the American models or else? 😉

  21. GFS is just plain awful right now, every run is different. It’s a joke.

    TK I thought the same thing about sandy. Can’t see how it correlates to our winter.

    1. The media has a thing about jumping on certain storms either making them into things we never have seen which means the entire global climate is changing, or that a particular storm is shaping a pattern for the season ahead. Both of them are total B.S. These storms have been around since the beginning of weather. We just see every detail now thanks to technology. Apparently more eyes somehow mean that what we’re seeing with them never took place before. BZZT! Try again!

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