Thanksgiving Week Update (Monday)

113 Comments

5:21PM

No major discussion changes. Travel weather still looks great leading up to Thanksgiving. Black Friday shopping weather looks great. Transition from brief mild to cold this weekend. Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-35, coldest inland valleys. Wind N-NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 47-52. Wind NE around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-38. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 46-51. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Partly to mostly sunny. Low 34. High 54.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 55.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 49.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 27. High 39.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 21. High 41.

113 thoughts on “Thanksgiving Week Update (Monday)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Cloudy day in Marshfield, though on the western and northwestern horizon, there was a sharp line to clear skies. When the sun set, it allowed for a colorful sunset.

  2. brilliant point TK on last blog.

    not to mention, with the earth being what, 5 billion years old, you’d better give me an exponentially larger weather sample size than 50 to 100 years to point to an undeniable trend. (and some point to even smaller sample like five years or even last storm!)

    1. The danger is we wait too long before we see it may be more than a pattern. Ill give anyone a pattern but no one can convince me we have not added to the destruction of this planet. We are already considerably warmer in November than we were 10 years ago. And maybe longer than that. There was never a question we could keep food on our porch for thanksgiving that would normally go in the fridge. We haven’t been able to for most of this century. I’m not talking about occasional cold days. It takes consistent cold for days on end. to keep the porch at 40 or below (it has windows).

      Stepping down from the soapbox now.

      1. I should have added that we went to NH skiing every year for the week between Christmas and New Years starting from when I was 2. In all those years there was one – mid 60s – when we did not have considerable snow. And this was well before snowmaking. Now??

        Ok really stepping down now 😉

      2. The soapbox is ok Vicki! And yes, we have poisoned our planet to a certain degree. And yes, we need to lead by example. Remember though that the majority of the planet lives in poverty. What is more poisonous to our planet – the actions and resulting pollution of people in poverty or the expanded carbon footprint that will result from them having their industrial revolution to get out of poverty? I say let them have their factories like we did even if it means a degree or two warmer, assuming we can cause that. (yikes, did I just say that) Maybe the Canadian prairies will benefit from an extended growing season – a new wheat belt even.

        I’m 41 and can remember many winters rushing in right after Thanksgiving, and it lasted. Now it seems like it’s after Christmas .

        Thanks for the soapbox indulgence!

        p.s. I’ll have to think about the pollution caused by rising tidal floods huh? Maybe we shouldn’t build so close to the ocean going forward.

    2. I do wish accuweather had not picked Sandy to tie it to the possibilities for the upcoming winter. I understand the idea of potential east coast cyclogenesis this winter, but I do think Sandy was its own unique event, (in recent recorded) weather history……

      The problem is, I do think the climate is very, very slowly warming, but the argument gets lost for that when one attempts a correlation between Sandy and this coming winter’s weather pattern is discussed.

      1. I absolutely agree. I think when we get hype it diminishes what is really happening and people tend to think the entire scenario is hype.

        1. It is too bad Tom. Hopefully there’s enough people out there who recognize it for what it is–an ad selling campaign. Cynical, I know but I see enough of that kind of stuff coming out of that organization to feel that way.

          Our planet has been shaped over the eon’s by “extreme” weather events among other forces we can’t comprehend. To think that we can/should be immune or that we can somehow control it by “cooling” the earth is pure folly.

  3. We experienced a winter where major blocking took place that produced major snow in the mid Atlantic. It appears some are calling for the same thing this winter but not to the same extreme. Can the same pattern happen so close to each other? If so how often can that occur? For me I discount any long range outlooks for many reasons. Blocking could be a bit weaker or position a bit to the west and the east coast is on the warm side. The major and consistant shifts in the hour to hour gfs runs and other models do not make me feel confident in any forecast beyond 48 hours. Euro is a different animal but is the best by far. The models are only tools the mets us to guide them to produce a forecast. It is the mets interpretation of the models that I question at times. Media and hype driven? Yes some are guilty of that. Then there are some that simply want to be conservative so that they don’t have egg on their face. We have mets on this blog that would rather under shoot low than over shoot because the fallout is less painful. I lot easier to adjust up than down.

    1. Replied on the previous post. Thanks. Completely agree about the Euro and your remark about models being tools. My favorite saying is “guidance not gospel”.

    1. I agree with CPC’s 6-10/8-14 temp maps.
      I disagree with their precipitation forecast, however.
      They have been talking “above” for weeks and it’s been below for most of the time. I still don’t see that changing much.

          1. Do you know what span they use for yearly comparison Perhaps it’s a few big dips that skew it. I am not buying its consistent as it used to be.

            On another note the Sudbury river that had risen is back to being very low. I do hope we have an above normal – whatever normal is any more – precip this winter. It’s starting to be worrisome.

  7. It’s tough to say what the 2nd half of dec will be like but the rest of nov and into early Dec looks seasonably cool but still see no snow

    1. Yes hadi it usually doesn’t snow this time of yr but if you thought we were gonna settle into a more consistent winter pattern and i don’t see it yet, have a great day hadi 😉

  10. I’m not thinking we are seasonably cool. As stated above from my soapbox. We are certainly above what we had for as long as i remember and I don’t even have my heat on but for 30 minutes before my husband wakes up in the morning. Is this what they call the new normal. That term drives me nuts BTW 🙂

    2. Hi Vicki I’m sorry I haven’t gotten back to you, with football and kids very busy but I will email soon with detail 🙂

      1. I haven’t had time either Charlie. I’m polishing silver and setting the table and then cooking and shopping starts in Ernest tomorrow. I love this week!

  12. Seeing signs of a very powerful northern jet stream heading into December and not a whole lot of southern stream. That pattern in this setup lends to dry with variable temps averaging slightly below normal.

  13. Both the EURO and the GFS have a signal for Nov. 29th, a week from this Thursday………. I noticed the EURO’s forecast of the NAO has it go quite negative the last week of November.

    Here’s a non-meteorological tidbit that guarantees a storm that day, we have a field trip that day. 🙂

  14. I find it interesting that its been chilly to cold the last handful of days, but above us, its been fairly mild. Mt. Washington has been around 30F with very little wind and there’s no snow cover in the white mtns.

    I understand that the large high has created the cold nights, from which the low sun angle cant really modify during the day. Meanwhile, yesterday in International Falls, MN and Moosonee, Canada (southern edge of James Bay), it was well above normal tempwise.

    Anyhow, we’ve been cool without the traditional Canadian cold blast, but as pointed out above, maybe the traditional Montreal Express could be due for an arrival soon. 🙁

    Have a good day all.

  18. Well there goes another one! 🙁

    Henry Margusity ‏@Accu_Henry
    The storm around the 28th will be the one to watch for snow in the East and maybe big cities.

    1. Just saw that tweet too coastal. I couldn’t wait to get on the board and scream it out. You beat me to it! Man, he’s killing me with this stuff.

      I think he’s very good, on the day of the storm. Anything outside of that forget it. And I had Bastardi’s tweet’s going for a while but he doesn’t shut up. He’ll talk about everything but the weather.

  19. When I see below normal temps and above normal precip in the forecast I get excited at first, but then I wonder how much below normal. The temps have to be far below normal to support snow right now (unless the precip falls at night). Temps just below normal this time of year + above normal precip = rain 🙁

  20. Henry Margusity is due to get one of these right with all of the predictions he makes. He may not be right about next week but I believe he will get one storm right this upcoming winter.

  23. Euro Predicted NAO:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zecmwfnao.gif

    2012112000z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: 50.3765106
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: 0.775577545
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: 21.3525772
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: 58.0339165
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: 78.8419418
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: -10.1975994
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -133.603058
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -184.348572
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: -197.423462
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: -214.858063
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: -291.800232

  24. Take a look at Judah Cohen’s track record and you will see is very, very good. I kind of felt off when I posted my thoughts here since early fall with my prediction of a very cold and snowy winter and my call on 100 inches, I believe some here not all thought that was way too high. I have been following Mr Cohen for about a year now and some signs were there for this winter. The one thing I was banking on was a week el Nino, which wont happen but instead go into a neutral phasing, still though enough to convince me too go high with snow amounts but back off just a tad. Batting down the hatchets folks as this one winter in my prediction again will be very tough on people and our hurting economy. Have a great thanksgiving everyone.

    2. I love listening to him talk about the weather. He and Noyes are at the top of my list. They don’t speak over our heads nor do they speak to us like we’re in it for the cheesy soundbite either.

  30. **** ALERT *** INCREASING SIGN OF SOME SORT OF NE WINTER STORM NOV 29-30 ***
    by Wxrisk.com on Tuesday, November 20, 2012 at 10:22am ·

    SUMMARY FOR NON WEATHER GEEKS

    This post and forecast ONLY concerns the events for the end of November and NOT the thanksgiving or the long holiday weekend. Keep in mind that Saturday and Sunday November 24-25 over ALL of the northeast including VA WVA MD DE and points north are going to turn much colder and fairly wind at times. Richmond min temps may drop below 30° either Sunday or Monday morning and there could be snow showers on Saturday or Sunday over the Shenandoah Valley. Weather models are indicating a possible East Coast storm November 29.

    Right now looks to be mostly a interior event because conditions will be too warm for the coastal areas so areas from Richmond to New York City to southeast of England will see a lot a rain from the system assuming it develops. But inland that could be pretty good snow. There are indications from various weather models that the pattern is going to turn much colder. There is huge buildup of cold air developing in Canada which has ocurred because of a huge early season buildup of snow cover over Siberia . Research shows that when you have a lot of snow in Siberia in October you get a much colder winter and possibly a snowy winter for the eastern U.S.. Ruight now…this winter is looking a lot like what we saw three winters ago … the winter of 2009-10 and 2 winters ago … the winter of 2010-11.

    got it?

    ==========================================

    DETAILED DISCUSSION–

    The weather models continue to turn towards this scenario that I outlined or first talked about on November 18– the potential for early season significant winter storm for portions of the Northeast US. And more importantly is the pattern that develops after this event on November 28 – 29 as remove into the heart of the winter season.This first image of the operational European model from early Wednesday morning November 20. The map to the left hand side is valid for the November 27 and map on the right hand side is for November 28 . http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif

    The problem of course going into the POSSIBLE event NOV 29 is that there is NO cold air in place over the East Coast. Instead what happens is that as the LOW develops on the East Coast ….it pulls in the arctic air mass that all the Model insist that will be in place over the Great Lakes… and the rain changes over snow. Now keep in mind that it is still not December … and ocean water temperatures are still pretty warm …and the fact that the atmosphere according to the European model will be far too warm for snow even north of New York City into Coastal CT and over most the PA . So even if this event does develop as the European model is depicting this morning… this is mainly an INLAND Northeast snow event and one that would affect the portions of the Ohio Valley and the Northern Middle Atlantic interior sections and most of interior New England… and POSISBLY far western VA eastern WVA western and central MD.

    This is very similar to what I initially speculated all forecasted on back on November 18. This is telling me that my initial assessment a least SO FAR…appears to be correct. But it is not just the European model. The 0z TUES NOV 20 rin of the GFS also shows a significant wave of Low pressure developing on the cold front over the Tennessee Valley and riding g up the front and developing into a decent system off the NE US coast. This is a significant change from what the GFS are showing a back up early on Monday when the GFS showed the Low on the front tracking up into the western Great Lakes. The 6z GFS is even further S and E but this solution should be ignored. The pattern is not yet in place over North America which it support the low tracking through North Carolina and any solution which shows that should be disregarded.

    Here is the PSD GFS ensemble from the folks over at CPC. As a another version of the GFS which is designed to pick up significant patterns as opposed to specific details at its pretty good after day 7. I posted one of these maps over on the WXRISK facebook page on the 19th… http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/z500_jsw_anom_f240_usbg.gif

    But the 0z NOV 20 run of the PSD GFS ensemble shows a even stronger system on November 30 developing on the East Coast and a very pronounce strong Greenland block/ -NAO feature. But going beyond this particular threat for November 30 there other important features developing in the hemisphere with regard to the weather models which have to be talked about because they show some pretty ominous developments (assuming that these weather models are correct). Both the European and the GFS ENSEMBLE by day 10 are showing some major developments here. This map is a jet stream map from the European DAY 10 ENSEMBLE.

    http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/00zecmwfens500mbHGHTNH240.gif

    We can clearly see the OMEGA BLOCK ridge over the Bering sea between Alaska and Siberia. This feature is called omega block because it is shaped like the letter Omega in the Greek alphabet. (if you’re not familiar with that GOOGLE it). However which important here is that the European ensemble is pushing the Omega Ridge northward …past the arctic circle and towards the North Pole. At the same time the -NAO pushes towards eastern Greenland and Iceland. The dangerous signal or concern here would be a LINKAGE between these two features over the arctic region. This would force the polar vortex (PV) over north central Canada to plunges southward… and in doing so this would force the AO ( arctic oscillation) into dangerous negative territory.

    This next image shows us the same map but on a somewhat smaller scale encompassing most of North America. Again I have highlighted some features with the black arrows so you can follow along.

    http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif

    The Bering Sea ridge can be seen in the yellow and brown with the black arrow in the top left corner over Western Alaska… and the -NAO can be seen in the top right corner. I have also pointed out the north American version of the Polar vortex — there is a similar feature over in Siberia.

    This next map shows again the north American region but here we can see the 850 mb temperatures. The reason why we are looking at this map is that shows the huge pool of extremely cold air building up over much of central and Canada. We can see by day 10 the cold air becomes a very impressive looking feature … and it will come south at some point fairly soon http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPNA240.gif

    So IF…IF… we do see this linkage between these two features– the Bering Sea Omega ridge and the -NAO — then a forecast for extreme cold would be called for over some portion of the U.S. in December. If on the other hand the models are wrong and we do NOT see this ” linkage” between these two features the cold air buildup would still continue but instead of a massive arctic outbreak we would see a prolonged cold pattern .

    This last map brings us even closer on a smaller scale with a focus just on the CONUS an immediate South Canada. This is again the day 10 European ensemble SURFACE map. We can see the possible East Coast storm now up in southeastern Canada with a lot of very cold air coming southward out of the Canadian regions across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.

    http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS240.gif

    Note the compacted numerous Black Lines across the northeast from Virginia to Maine. Those lines (isobars) when theye are compacted like this mean a lot of N or NW winds. In addition this sort of setup would roduce widespread heavy lake affect snows as well for those folks in the central and eastern Great Lakes.

    Winter is coming. Y’all ready for this ???

  31. Matt Noyes to me is the best in the NE. He is young but knows NE weather. Harvey and Barry are great but Noyes is great about details without being over analytical.

    1. oh yeah, I agree with those guys too. Joe Joyce belongs on that list as well. I just kind of overlook the TV peeps because you don’t always get the inside baseball stuff. I will say though however it’s great that they’ve started to incorporate more model tracks into the broadcast. I think there’s a bigger audience out there for that kind of nuance than they might realize.

  32. This has absolutely nothing to do with weather, but this morning Melissa mentioned that today is the last day of school before Thanksgiving break, but back in my day we still had to go to school half days on Wednesday and I believe Boston PS will be in session tomorrow.

    Hey Tom…is there school in Marshfield tomorrow? I will say thoough that even back in my day there wasn’t really much “learning” on Thanksgiving Eve Wednesdays. 😉

    5. Framingham does not have school tomorrow. They always had half day when my kids were in school. Any teachers here please do not read further. I always let my kids stay home on Wednesday to help cook and prepare 🙂

  34. From the NWS:

    TUE AND MID NEXT WEEK… AS MENTIONED IN THE OVERALL DISCUSSION ABOVE. STILL MONITORING FOR A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE ZONAL FLOW. THE NEGATIVE AO COULD SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST LOW PRES AFFECTING THE REGION BUT ENSEMBLES/OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE VERY DIFFERENT ON HOW THIS
    OCCURS. WILL TRANSITION TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT CONFIDENCE IS
    LOW IN ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS.

  35. 12Z GFS has something, although it doesn’t look to be too strong:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F20%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=192&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    Waiting on the 12Z Euro to see IF it still has it and how strong it has it, if it does.

    1. Looking forward to your analysis of the 12 Euro. Eventually I will learn how to read these myself with the help of all of the experts on this blog!

  36. GFS is quite active indeed with a snow threat around 11/28, inside runner on 12/1, and another coastal storm on 12/5.

    Like the position of that high to the north for the storm next week. The 0z Euro has the storm as well (also cold enough for snow) but timing is a day later (11/29).

    Quite a far cry from what both models were showing yesterday – a Great Lakes cutter through Chicago.

    1. Of course it is early, but I’d certainly lean towards this solution or
      even farther West and North. Just the way it goes around here. 😀

      2. Not necessarily. The Euro is cold all of next week which is the big thing. Plenty of cold air nearby to work with. A shift in track 150 miles to the east is very attainable 8 days out. Heck, the track just shifted 150 miles west since the last run. It’s a watcher!

        1. Mark,

          Of course you could be 100% correct (and yes there is plenty of time for things to change), however, I just don’t feel it. I sense same ole same ole all over again. 😀 😀

  39. At this point in the season, id be happier with snow in ski country than around here. We’ll get our snow, I just want the ski areas to be able to get a great start this year. Hopefully the systems in our near future, even if we get rain here, they get snow up there.

  40. UGH meter with the latest 12z EURO run only at a 2 since it is still many days away. The storm that is missing us the GFS had the right idea with a fish storm so will see what happens.

  41. 12Z Canadian at 180 hours. This is far as it goes, or so it does at this site:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=216&map=na&stn2=PNM&runb=12&mod2=ecmwf&hh2=216&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    12Z UKMET at 144 hours. (Again, this is as far out as it goes).

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=180&map=na&stn2=PNM&runb=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    I can say this. Virtually all of the operational 12Z models have the system
    somewhere in the vicinity of Oklahoma or Kansas at 144 hours. NOT a very
    good position for Snow around these parts.

    UGH meter rising! 😀

    1. Oh well…it is early in the season so I am sure we will have lots of other chances. I just hope for a white Christmas.

  45. I love the EURO, especially the 12z run. 🙂

    My wish…no snow until December 21. Need to get 4 more weeks of school in without cancellation and for businesses, need to let everyone get out nd make this a great Holiday Season before the Country plunges off the fiscal cliff.

  46. Judah Cohen only forecasts temps anyway – not precip/snow. On temps, he and I are in agreement this season.

    I have my reasons for not pulling out all the stops on the precip/snow forecast and I’m holding to those. The good news is that I think a lot of what does fall this winter will be in the form of snow – there just may not be an abundance of melted precipitation.

    1. Well I know if he nails this winter that is three in a row that I know of, anybody who can be right three in a row has my attention. Tk would you mind if I invited him here to the blog. I’m hoping to be talking with him soon.

    2. Tk. There seems to be signs out there that in past winter’s with the same signals we had snowy winters. Why are you holding back. I really wish you could explain this in a scientific way. I have the utmost respect for you, I think you know that but would just like some more information on what your seeing. Thanks for giving us this great blog. I wish you and your family a very happy thanksgiving.

      1. I did explain. And my reason is simple. I think blocking may be too strong. When that happens, things go south. December will go a long way into telling if I have any kind of correct idea.

  47. There cerrtainly is plenty of early season very cold air up in western Canada and Alaska, where many current temps, in the middle of their day, are below zero (in the range of 5 to 15 below).

    1. The cold supply is not going to be an issue for sure. Siberian snowcover is miles ahead of where it was last year at this time. Tendency for -AO/-NAO is going to help with delivery. Our wildcard is going to be strength of blocking as to whether or not snow is impressive or just so-so/average.

  48. NWS Taunton non committal for next week….

    THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A STORM WILL BE TUESDAY OF
    NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. THE MODELS HAVE
    BEEN JUMPING AROUND ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS
    SO THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM AND
    WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW WITH IT.– End Changed Discussion —

  49. Burlington NWS discussion has a bit of humor…
    FOR TURKEY DAY — SEEING NO WEATHER ISSUES THAT WILL DISTRACT
    FOLKS FROM EATING TOO MUCH TURKEY AND STUFFING. HIGH PRESSURE AT
    ALL LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN LOTS OF SUN. SLIGHT MODERATION IN
    TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS (925MB TEMPERATURES RISE FROM
    ABOUT +2C TO +4C) SO CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA OF IT BEING A TICK OR
    TWO WARMER. PAINTED IN LOTS OF UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL
    REMAIN VERY LIGHT, SO BACKYARD QUARTERBACKS CAN`T USE THE WINDS AS
    AN EXCUSE.

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