Thanksgiving Week Update (Tuesday)

95 Comments

7:32PM

The quiet pattern continues and will last through Friday before some changes take place. High pressure northeast of New England and low pressure far to the southeast will combine to cause a weak to moderate east to northeast flow over southern New England through Wednesday as a weak upper trough moves in from the west. This will promote a variably cloudy sky through Wednesday night along with cool air, but with no precipitation, conditions will be excellent for traveling just before Thanksgiving Day. The holiday itself on Thursday will be a very nice one as a narrow high pressure area builds overhead, and this high will push offshore on Black Friday, resulting in a fair and milder day, conducive to heavy mall traffic and lots of money spending.

The remainder of Thanksgiving weekend will see some changes take place. A strong cold front will approach then cross the region Saturday and Saturday night. A band of rain showers will accompany the front as the air will still be mild ahead of it. But a sharp shot of cold air will come in as the front passes (exact timing remains to be seen but best guess is Saturday evening for the front to cross the region). Most of the moisture will be offshore rather quickly so the chance of snow showers on Sunday is remote, at best. But if any moisture is around it would be cold enough to support snow showers.

Looking into early next week, a fair and cold Monday should be followed by a threat of unsettled weather Tuesday (too early to be sure on rain vs. snow, or the significance of the event).

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 28-33. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 48-53. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-36. Wind NE-N 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Mostly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny.  Low 37. High 56.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 49.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 42.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny.  Low 22. High 44.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix.  Low 29. High 43.

95 thoughts on “Thanksgiving Week Update (Tuesday)”

  1. Thanks TK. Are you looking at a a good chance of showers sat? We will be at a Christmas event in scituate from 3-5?

    1. That front will probably push 1 band of showers across the region. The question is the timing. Can probably narrow it into a 12 hour window right now from noon to midnight. I know that’s not very helpful at this stage of the game.

  2. Thanks Tk. On your return post to me you said somthing like December will be telling on if your call is heading the right way. I suspect that means dry conditions, I believe that’s what you said with precipitation well below normal, again I think that’s what you said. So I am assuming your thinking not that much snow. On the blocking being strong enough to push storms south maybe, what about the blocking from 2010/2011 winter that pushed all the storms through. Many thanks.

    1. You’re welcome, John! The dry forecast is risky. Weaker blocking and a few cut offs close enough and there goes my drier forecast…

    1. Fantastic day. 50+. Glad it’s not 60+ though. That’s too warm for my Thanksgiving liking. 🙂

  4. Thanks TK. Agree with your comment on the last blog that if blocking is too strong things will stay south. We have seen that happen before.

  5. I’m experimenting. I have a thermometer on our porch. We always had one when we put food out there at thanksgiving time. It was typically about 36-39. So far the lowest it has been is 49.3. We did add a pocket door summer 2011 so I just dropped the glass to see how much difference if makes

    Also, does anyone know how average temp is measures. Is it day night combined or day and then night.

    1. Yes, it is High + Low Divided by 2.
      Low of 40, high of 60, 40+60=100/2=50.

      I do believe, however, that in some European countries they take
      24 hourly readings, add them up and divide by 24 which is a far more
      accurate average temperature.

  6. Not often does the mid Atlantic get more snow. I just favor 2 or 3 storms that are big. Historically the Mid Atlantic just doesn’t beat us in the snow department.

    I did notice that Siberia has way more snow than last year. That is telling sign for cold. There are not many years we are too dry in the winter, more of an issue is the lack of cold air. I guess we shall see what happens.

      1. TK, how confident are u this cold air will be able to get in here this winter? It can be as cold and snowy in Sibera as it wants but without a means to get here, it wont matter. The current pattern, at least the one we’ve been in this week, will keep it bottled up in the arctic.

    1. I’d be willing to bet that this will never catch on with the public and they will abandon the practice by next season.

      1. I agree too. The first two didn’t catch on, but it may take one big one and it will catch on. We will see.

  9. I love how heavy mall traffic is part of your forecast 😉 hahahaha!

    I don’t mind snow, HOWEVER, I really am not ready to shovel again.

    I need to get a helmet, shoulder pads, and…(well I might as well just get geared up for hockey)….to be prepared for when I slip on ice….

    1. Trying to cover everybody. 😉

      You already got some shoveling practice in, remember? Should I buy you a pair of spiked shoes for your birthday? Then you can walk on ice with ease.

      Happy Birthday!

  10. Boston (Logan) is currently -7.98″ below normal in precip so far and if TK’s thoughts about this upcoming winter is for cold/mostly dry verify then I have a feeling that there are going to be big moisture problems for next spring and summer.

    Come January 1st will those official precip stats above continue along or will there be a new slate? I don’t know how those particular climo stats work year-to-year.

    2. They will keep track of it relative to the year but that won’t erase the fact there is a major deficit going into it. 🙂

    3. Philip I’m really worried too. The rivers around here went up with the last few storms but they are way down again

  12. TK, could use a weather forecast for the Pats-Jets (Meadowlands) game Thurs night. I actually just got invited to the game. (Not sure I want to make the drive though.)

    1. Hi, Vicki – thanks for asking. A lot has been going on – my mother hasn’t been well along with family problems. And my husband has not been that well, either. He takes a lot of medications for his conditions and lately has trouble staying awake, so I have been driving and running around w/stuff. He had his blood tested last week and we’re still waiting for results. Prob’ly he needs a change in meds. I am still making Thanksgiving for all, just some extra work for me. I don’t mind. I think of the people out there who can’t afford turkey or a meal and I am grateful for what we have. I have been reading the posts here on occas. and will try to post more often soon.

      1. Hi rainshine – I am sorry to hear that your mom and husband are not doing well. I will keep both in my thoughts—and you too. Thanksgiving dinner on top of all else is a big undertaking. Please don’t worry about posting here. I had just been thinking about you and as you know I’m a worrier.

        Take care of you also and I hope your Thanksgiving brings better health to all!

  15. Hmmm, Next weeks system sure looks like a Lakes Cutter!

    oZ Euro at 168 hours:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ecmwf&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=168&map=na&stn2=PNM&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=168&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    0Z Canadian at 168 hours:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=168&map=na&stn2=PNM&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=168&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    06Z GFS at 174 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121121%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_171_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=171&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F21%2F2012+06UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

  16. Happy Birthday Emily! Have a wonderful time celebrating your birthday, and may all your birthday wishes come true!

  17. Happy Birthday, Emily! Enjoy your birthday!

    And Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Glad the weather is cooperating with the holidays. After the holidays, then it can storm! 🙂

  18. From the NWS out of Taunton.
    TUE NIGHT INTO MID WEEK…
    WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT MENTIONED EARLIER…GUIDANCE IS STILL
    FAVORING A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
    WEEK. HOWEVER…THEY ARE VERY DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY GET THERE AND
    WHAT THE IMPACTS MAY BE. THEREFORE…THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
    FORECAST. THE LATEST GFS HAS LOW PRES MOVING WELL W OF THE REGION
    WITH RAIN BEING THE DOMINANT POTENTIAL P-TYPE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
    MANY OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW AND SUGGEST
    SOME WRN INTERIOR LOCATIONS COULD BE SNOW. STILL A LOT TO IRON OUT
    OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS/ECMWF BLEND USED TAKES BOTH OF
    THESE POSSIBILITIES INTO ACCOUNT…BUT AT THE VERY LEAST SUGGESTS
    A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.

  19. Generally what does the NAO look like with inside runners vs. coastal/offshore storms? Am I correct that the NAO would be negative in both situations?

    1. Latest Euro Predicted NAO:

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zecmwfnao.gif

      NAO value for forecast hour 000: 5.18558884
      NAO value for forecast hour 024: 26.5186958
      NAO value for forecast hour 048: 53.1125298
      NAO value for forecast hour 072: 53.5186081
      NAO value for forecast hour 096: -24.4944649
      NAO value for forecast hour 120: -170.938934
      NAO value for forecast hour 144: -211.658478
      NAO value for forecast hour 168: -230.003998
      NAO value for forecast hour 192: -307.666931
      NAO value for forecast hour 216: -343.605377
      NAO value for forecast hour 240: -381.982269

      1. Sorry Philip,
        Don’t know how to answer your question.

        All I know is that we have a much better chance of Snow with a negative NAO, but there certainly are no guarantees.

        I’d guess we can still have inside runners with -NAO.

  20. I stand correct re school in Framingham being closed today. Apparently, I have to think beyond what I see in my own home 🙂 Just kindergarteners ended class yesterday. The rest of Framingham has a half day. And if it’s all right to ask a non-weather question, does everyone here know if his/her town has full or half day kindergarten? We went to full without a half-day option.

    1. Plymouth has both however the full day is tuition based and is chosen by lottery. I sure wish they would go to full day at no cost. It sure makes it hard for us working moms.

      1. I think that having a choice is the best solution but it should not be a cost either way. Full day was far too much for some but necessary for others as you have said, Sue.

        1. I totally agree Vicki. My boys were have been in full day care since they were very young so they are used to the long day. Other kids that have not been exposed to that type of environment could definitely benefit from starting out with a half day. It should definitely be a choose at no cost.

    1. Ok, 12Z GFS is in and shows a very interesting solution that
      varies greatly from the 0Z Euro Operational run! Here is the panel
      for 183 hours:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121121%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_180_850_temp_mslp_precip_l.gif&fcast=180&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F21%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=L&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=93&nextImage=yes

      Not that this depicts snow for our area, because it doesn’t, but it opens the
      door for something happening.

      So what gives with the model discrepancy????

      Now the 12Z Euro will be most intriguing! 😀 😀

      1. In later 12Z GFS panels, it shows the possibility of a little bit of
        back end snow. 12Z Euro, where are you?

  22. Old Salty I saw your comment earlier about the NWS discussion. I had to read it a couple of times to make sure I was reading it correctly. I would like to know what they are looking at because the model data is showing an inside runner.
    The NWS discussion out of Upton NY talks about a mix for northern interior zones going over to rain. I could see that happening.

  23. Hi all!

    Great travel weather!

    Speaking of traveling, I am taking a ride with my son to my old school, UMass Lowell. Walking the campus this afternoon including a stop in the weather lab if the door isn’t locked (it hasn’t been yet in all the years I have gone back, but you’d think they might lock it if they saw me coming). 😉

  25. Henry’s take on next week:

    1. The models have trended west with the storm overnight and to me that doesn’t really make much sense. The NAO is negative now and will go even more negative prior to Dec. 1. It makes more sense to me that somehow the storm manages to get to the coast and intensify. It may happen either by the storm going on the more southern track as shown on the map below or the storm stays on the track into the eastern Great Lakes and secondaries along the coast. For now I am sticking with the swath of snow potential with a storm going on the southern track.

    2. The pattern overall looks wild going into December. The cold is coming and the storms are certainly going to be around, so we could be dealing with a lot of winter weather heading through the first two weeks of December.

  26. Philip,
    In response to your question above, you can still get inside runners with a negative NAO. In the link below, scroll all the way down to the four maps below which depict the difference between an east and west based NAO. In the east based NAO, the cold air is focused further west over the western Great Lakes, northern plains and rockies while the northeast is average to above average in temps. This type of setup leads to more inland storm tracks and bigger snows in the western Great Lakes and northern plains. In the west based NAO, the cold air floods to the deep south and eastern seaboard, favoring coastal storm tracks and giving us the better snow chances.

    http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html

  27. I think Matt Noyes, HM, and the 12z GFS operational and ensemble runs may actually have a better handle on the storm next week with the cold pool of air in place and tanking NAO. I can see the storm tracking either over or SE of New England and bringing wintry precipitation to interior areas. Think either way though coastal areas and SE MA are mostly rain.

  28. The rest of the 12z GFS portrays a weather pattern that TK has been talking about. Cold and dry with troughs setting up in the west and east, and a ridge developing over the plans. Ocean storms forms on 12/1 and just sits in the Atlantic, becoming a cutoff low and too far out to affect us. Hopefully that does not become the predominant weather pattern this winter.

    That run is far from the wild pattern that HM talks about moving into December. It is also the long range GFS, so not putting too much stock in it.

  29. The thought that came to mind when seeing the latest 12z GFS is Groundhog Day…..its medium range prediction looks like a repeat of the last several days. A storm out in the ocean, a high to our north with dry, cool weather and light northerly flow over New England and a mild mid-section of the US.

    1. A minute apart. We were obviously preparing posts at the same time. 😀

      I see that 850MB temps are potentially cold enough for snow, however, in
      checking the Wundermap for the 12Z Euro it does NOT indicate any snow,
      save for a bit way up North towards the end of the event.

      Check it out. I’d post a link to the snow (or non-snow) map, if I could get
      it to work.

      If you don’t have a link to Wundermap, here is one:

      http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

      You will have to select ECMWF and which ever map you desire and
      get the hour you want as well.

    1. Wow. Ur right, that storm is past us once it really gets going. If that run verified, we’d be lucky to get any precip.

    2. We’re thinking alike today with our posts 🙂 Both models have been flip flopping majorly on this one but as I posted above, this solution makes a lot more sense to me than the inside runner solution. NAO is going negative around that time and the cold air is not going to be advancing south and east, not retreating.

  33. OS, I noticed that as well. I can see the lack of snow early on in the storm as the 540 line is well inland with the bulk of precip closer to the coast or over the ocean. But as the storm winds up, the 540 line collapses to the coast and we are getting quite a bit of back side precip. Not sure I understand why this wouldn’t be a rain to snow situation.

    1. I Hate to say this, but on the MSL Wundermap chart, that 5400 line
      is NOT the 540 line we monitor for rain/snow on the 1000-500MB thickness
      chart. On the Wundermap, those line are geopotential heights and NOT thickness. Geopotential height approximates the actual height of a pressure surface above mean sea-level and is represented by the solid yellow and dashed yellow contour lines on the Wundermap.

      A thickness line is the vertical distance in meters between two pressure levels. The models commonly use the 1000 to 500 millibar thickness. The thickness is the vertical distance in meters from the 1000 to the 500 millibar level. The 1000 to 500 mb thickness is a function of two properties, (1) the average temperature of the air between 1000 and 500 millibars and (2) the average moisture content of the air between 1000 and 500 millibars. These two properties are combined together to produce the virtual temperature. Therefore, thickness is a function of the average virtual temperature between 1000 and 500 millibars.

      I had an experienced met once tell me: “Heights are Heights and Thickness is Thickness” when I got confused over the 2.

    2. I Hate to say this, but on the MSL Wundermap chart, that 5400 line
      is NOT the 540 line we monitor for rain/snow on the 1000-500MB thickness
      chart. On the Wundermap, those line are geopotential heights and NOT thickness. Geopotential height approximates the actual height of a pressure surface above mean sea-level and is represented by the solid yellow and dashed yellow contour lines on the Wundermap.

      A thickness line is the vertical distance in meters between two pressure levels. The models commonly use the 1000 to 500 millibar thickness. The thickness is the vertical distance in meters from the 1000 to the 500 millibar level. The 1000 to 500 mb thickness is a function of two properties, (1) the average temperature of the air between 1000 and 500 millibars and (2) the average moisture content of the air between 1000 and 500 millibars. These two properties are combined together to produce the virtual temperature. Therefore, thickness is a function of the average virtual temperature between 1000 and 500 millibars.

      I had an experienced met once tell me: “Heights are Heights and Thickness is Thickness” when I got confused over the 2.

  35. Mark I have to agree. With the NAO tanking no way this storm cuts through the GL. I think we will be watching this storm closely for snow in a lot of our area.

  36. What do you know? We are being dismissed from work today at 3PM in
    honor of Thanksgiving. Nice place to work, eh?

    1. Wow – great place to work – how nice. Drive safely – it was nuts out there yesterday and I’m sure will be worse today.

    2. In a past lifetime, I remember those days in the corporate world, when you’d be waiting all day for “the email” from the CEO or a manager the day before a Holiday, giving an earlier departure time. I dont miss that. 🙂 🙂

      My favorite one was when there’d be four new inches of snow, snowing like crazy and then, you’d be allowed to leave early. I was always thinking, why leave now during the worst of the storm. I often stayed and waited out the heaviest snow.

  37. Hi everybody! Great stroll around the campus of UMass Lowell today. 🙂

    I am about to update the blog. The only change I am making is slowing the timing of the precipitation event next week from Tuesday to Wednesday. I favor a track close by with a try at redevelopment, but a fairly fast-moving open wave, not much time to ‘splode. The overall pattern (despite some mild weather through Friday and maybe briefly with the passage of the low next week depending on its track) remains chilly and mainly dry. See no change heading into December…

    1. The 18z GFS shows a rain to blizzard scenario at LSC for next week’s system, which I’d love to see happen, but it may be too slow and overdoing the QPF on the back side.

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