Thanksgiving Weekend Forecast

163 Comments

5:45PM

I hope anybody traveling today has made it safely to their destination! If you  have to travel on the holiday itself, no worries from the weather. Looks great as high pressure dominates. This high will hang around for “Black Friday” which will be a splendid day, with sunshine and mild air. It won’t last though. The chilly/dry pattern that we have been in will continue. We’ll snap right back to it with the passage of a strong cold front Saturday morning (a little earlier than I thought yesterday). This will bring a band of rain showers as the air will still be mild. But right behind it, in will flow the cold on a gusty wind later Saturday. This chilly air will stick around into early  next week. The next “event of note” will be the passage of a fairly weak storm system around the middle of next week. The timing is a little slower than on the previous forecast (Wednesday vs. Tuesday), and again it remains too early at 7 days distance to figure out the track and if any mix/snow will be involved, so a generic and low confidence forecast will be presented here regarding that event.

I would like to wish all of you a very Happy Thanksgiving! I hope you are all with people you love and can enjoy the day. Be safe this weekend! I will continue to update the blog throughout.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Areas of low clouds near the coast. A few high clouds otherwise. Patchy fog forming in valleys, swamps, and bogs. Areas of frost. Lows upper 20s to middle 30s, lowest in the valley areas. Wind NE under 10 MPH becoming calm.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Any low clouds and patches of fog dissipating in the morning as any frost melts, then sunny. Highs 48-53. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-38. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny until late in the day when the sun will set into a deck of clouds in the west. Highs 53-58. Wind S to SW around 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds move in west to east along with a threat of rain showers toward dawn. Lows 43-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with passing rain showers in the morning, then partly cloudy. Highs around 50 then falling through the 40s during the day and into the 30s by evening. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 42.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 47.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix AM. Variably cloudy PM. Low 33. High 43.

163 thoughts on “Thanksgiving Weekend Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I dont know if this is old news, but I saw a 2+ minute video on ch. 4 and as a team, they presented their winter outlook. Thought it was a nicely put together video with all 4 meteorologists.

    Anyhow, summary….45 to 60 inches in Boston to Providence corrider, 60 to 80 NW of 128, 80+ western and northern New England and 25 to 40 inches south shore and Cape.

  3. Sprinkling here in pembroke. Tk I have contacted Judah and waiting to here back from him. He is working in Lexington.

  4. Not sure I will have much time on the blog tomorrow. I want to wish my “weather family” a happy and safe Thanksgiving. Enjoy everyone!

      1. Nice John!!! My boys and I always ride around the Plymouth, Pembroke, Kingston area to look at lights so perhaps we may just drive by your house.

        1. Sure when I’m done. I only have 5 air blowns up, I think I have 5 more to put up.The wreaths will be up Friday and hope to finish the lights by Sunday. We have music ad well and can set to do a light show. I enjoy it and my son just loves it.

  5. I had a bio test from 830am -920am made my schedual for next semester from 930-945 then went to a band party first time i seen alot of those people and played football. my team won 🙂 that was from about 11-430 then i left and went and hung out with a college freind until 7 and got my year book and then i went back to the party until 10pm and played a game of man hunt. pretty solid day. 😀 . thanks giving tailgate tomorrow morning , alumni of the marching band does it. then watch the band play at half time then go out durring the game and have our own game of football some where else. then go home and have thanksgiving dinner and take a nap and then watch the pats game and then go to bed. Friday . getting new snow maker. saturday lowell parade. then family tradition my dad my brothers and my self put up the lights (start ) be done by december 1st but since there is a week inbetween it will be earlier. and when we put up the lights its of course going to get more wintery as it gets colder. it just so happens that when we put up the lights its a relatively cold weekend. this weekend seems like its going to turn a switch in terms of weather. YOU CAN NOT GET INTO THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT WITH THE WINTER WEATHER AND THAT INCLUDES COLD TEMPERATURES.
    *I HOPE EVERYONE HAS A GREAT START OF THE HOLIDAY SEASON AND GOOD LUCK WITH ALL THE FOOD 🙂

    1. it should say YOU CAN NOT GET INTO THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT WITH OUT THE WINTER WEATHER AND THAT INCLUDES COLD TEMPERATURES.
      *I HOPE EVERYONE HAS A GREAT START OF THE HOLIDAY SEASON

  6. Happy Thanksgiving to all !!

    Thankful for all the important things in life…………. if we could get a Pats win tonight, I’d add that to the bottom of the list 🙂

    If the 0z EURO’s correct, really downplaying next week’s storm while keeping it cold…..and thats a preview of things to come, then TK has absolutely nailed the winter outlook of cold and dry.

    1. Everybody is calling for a bad winter. As said before watch for the same kind of blocking pattern as seen in 2011. First plowable event in December/ mid. Enjoy the warmer tempatures today and tomorrorpnogjy w. Happy thanksgiving. Huge game tonight, go pats. Working tomorrow so only watching first half. Took the day after Xmas instead. Have a great day folks.

  7. Happy Thanksgiving to Everyone. I feel very thankful to TK for creating this space to share our love of weather and for the wonderful people I’ve met here and who have taken their time to share their friendship and knowledge. 😀

  9. Happy thanksgiving all!!

    Tom too early to say anyone nailed a forecast 🙂

    Go Skins!! We win and Giants lose and we are one game out of first. Kind of amazing. Also go Pats!!!

    2. Hadi I am thinking the same thing because as you know I am a Cowboys fan.
      Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.

  10. Happy TG to all and your families. Eat well!! (I won’t tell you today’s average calorie consumption per person.) And we have to have the Pats win. I am going to the game!

  14. Good morning all. Happy Thanksgiving to one and all!!!! 😀

    If the Euro is correct, virtually nothing happens with next week’s system.
    The weakest possible mostly OTS system.

    Canadian and GFS still have an inside runner.
    oZ GFS had a potent system, while the 06Z GFS had a much weaker system.
    Canadian has a pretty potent system.

    Which one to believe???

    Sounds like a complicated situation.

    1. From NWS, Upton NY:

      PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REMAIN ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL STORM…WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH REGARD TO LOW PRESSURE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH. OPERATIONAL GFS LOW PRESSURE TRACK DOES NOT SEEM TO MAKE MUCH SENSE. I WOULD EXPECT SOME LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC BASED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO TRACK A WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY…AND IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS RUN.

  15. With the NAO tanking to me low pressure on the coast seems the more likely outcome.
    Looking at the latest AO and NAO charts both are heading in the negative direction.

    1. Yup:

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zecmwfnao.gif

      2012112200z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
      NAO value for forecast hour 000: 32.8984756
      NAO value for forecast hour 024: 65.4328461
      NAO value for forecast hour 048: 61.6188431
      NAO value for forecast hour 072: -29.3106003
      NAO value for forecast hour 096: -146.436157
      NAO value for forecast hour 120: -150.014252
      NAO value for forecast hour 144: -100.755402
      NAO value for forecast hour 168: -47.2366409
      NAO value for forecast hour 192: -118.557564
      NAO value for forecast hour 216: -207.142426
      NAO value for forecast hour 240: -256.37207

      1. It might be worth noting that these negative values are NOT
        as negative as the run 24 hours prior. Not sure what it means, but perhaps something is up???

    1. Hi Old Salty,

      Can you tell me what would be a good number on the NAO for a coastal storm around here? I know if the NAO is to low it will stay south of here is there like a range that we should be looking at for a storm to hit us? Like the numbers that you posted is -256 a good NAO to have a storm here or no..

      1. Good Question. I don’t know the answer to that.

        All I know is that the more negative, the better the chance
        that a storm would be snow. No guarantees no matter what
        the index is.

    1. About the same to me. Still watching it.
      Need it to redevelop along the coast. Don’t like track so far.
      We’ll see

  18. http://boston.cbslocal.com/2012/11/21/researchers-say-new-england-winters-getting-shorter/

    Interesting article over on BZ the other day about New England winters being shorter. If this winter does indeed become dry and cold, the research done in this article might play out. They are studying the impact of lack of and/or limited snowpack on vegetation. Snow actually acts to warm the ground layer and insulate the roots of dormant vegetation to protect them from the cold temps of winter. Without a deep snowpack, its interesting to note what may happen to the vegetation over the years of similar winters.

    1. Good old Al. I used to work with him. 🙂

      In person, Al is very quiet and shy (yes it’s true). 🙂

    1. Unless the NAO wont be negative by then, or at least not a negative as was previously thought. May be a trend as I believe someone had pointed out earlier about the NAO values forecast backing off a bit

    2. Yes,

      But in addition to the GFS, the Canadian, UKMET and the Nogaps
      all depict a Lakes Cutter/Inside runner.

      They’re seeing something???????

      Let’s see what those 12Z runs look like.

      1. HPC discussion:

        EASTERN US…

        THE DISPARITY AMONG THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES MON-TUE/D4-5 WITH LOW
        PRESSURE EXITING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FROM THERE THE MODELS SPREAD
        OUT TO THE NORTHWEST /UKMET AND CANADIAN/ TOWARD MICHIGAN…
        THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THEN OUT TO SEA /ECMWF/… OR UP THE
        APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST COAST /00-06Z GFS/. THE TRACK IS
        DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CAN INTERACT WITH
        THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY… THE ORIGINS OF WHICH
        ARE CURRENTLY NW OF ALASKA. OPTED TO STAY NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
        GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH THE 06Z GFS/00Z GEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
        MEAN AS THE ENSEMBLES LIE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

  23. Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Hope you all have a great day and go Pats!

    Old Salty, now I am anxious to see the 12Z Euro. Wonder if it will still show the ots solution.

  24. I just got back from my traditional Woburn / Winchester football game.

    Last year, we (Woburn) trounced them on the road, 56-0.

    They were looking for revenge, and jumped on us 14-0 in the 1st quarter, but after that it was all Woburn for a 32-14 final. 🙂

    Almost dinner time with the family (we have about 11 people this time). 🙂

    Blog update this evening. Happy Thanksgiving!

      1. Checking the Wundermap, it keeps it totally off shore
        and then it intensifies well North and East of us.

        How could the models be soooo different???

        Obviously, something isn’t being handled correctly????

        2. Old Salty is the Euro the only one showing ots?

          I keep thinking today is Saturday and that the storm is only a few days away….I need to remember it is Thursday!

  28. What a great day. I was on the deck for over an hour and could smell the turkey cooking even out there. Yummmmm. I even dozed off a bit the sun was so warm.

  30. well im stuffed with food . i am one happy kid 😀 ,getting the snow maker parts tomorrow then putting it togeather 🙂 then decorations, then parade in LOwell saturday. then more decorating. and it seems the weather pattern is at least going to be cold which is a start. 🙂

  31. winter outlook there will be alot of cold shots through the winter. we will see normal to below normal temperatures. we will see below noramal for the coast, boston, south and east.near to slightly below normal snow fall. south of the pike and inside of 495. near normal for areas north of the pike. Most storms will be to our south and east(mid atlantic) or inside runners to lake cutters. I do think we will see some good nor easters and see at least one blizzard warning being posted some where in southern new england. Have a great rest of thanksgiving.

    1. i need one blizzard warning to be posted by the national weather service. I want 5 bucks that my freind bet me. he says we never had a blizzard in our life time and would give me 5 bucks if one happens this winter.

      1. Wow that caught my attention Matt. No blizzard. Amazing. Was dec 9 2005 a blizzard. None in 2010/11. Wow. Would would have thunk

        2. oh we did have a Blizzard in 2010/2011 its just that he thinks we did not have one but my area did have a blizzard warning posted before in our life time. lol

  32. Happy Thanksgiving Duluth, MN…….1/2 mile, moderate snow, 27F.

    Summit of Mt. Washington, 37F.

    Last couple minutes of Pats-Jets game, quite enjoyable !

    1. Ahhhhhhhhhh snow.

      Game interesting …….. Putting it mildly. You gotta love wilfork. The trick is to keep our guys from getting too pumped.

    2. Exactly……..I found that play with Wilfork pushing the Jets offensive lineman into their QB, who then fumbled, hilarious. Laughed pretty good, maybe that burned off a few calories 🙂

  33. CPC is starting to realize that their continuous forecasts for above normal precipitation are just not working out…

  34. 06z gfs is COLDER!! Has a weaker low pressure sliding under new england. Now the EURO is still OTS will the trend for the gfs continue to move farther east and ots?? Hopefully we get a little snow next week..I’m no pro when it comes to reading the models anyone else see some other details??

  35. I wonder what the Nov. records are for least amount of monthly precip. Logan is at .86 inches and Hartford is at an amazing .27 inches. I’m thinking next week’s midweek system is not cranking out much more than .1 or .2 QPF, if that….and a week from tomorrow is December 1st.

  36. Hi Tom… For Hartford the driest November on record was in 1976 with .53 inches. 2.5 inches of snow back on the 7th of November is part of the .27 icnhes for the month. The 2.5 was not a record for snowfall in November but the 8.3 recorded on the shoreline at Bridgeport makes it the snowiest November on record.
    I am going to say there is a POTENTIAL SYSTEM affecting us mid week next week. I don’t want to use the term storm since even if we do get anything its going to remain weak.

      1. Your welcome Tom. Here is another stat for you from Hartford, CT. This November COULD be the first month with
        below normal temps since March 2011.

        1. JJ what span do they use for normal? If its just this century ill buy it but if it spans my lifetime (100 or so years) I’m just not buying it. Even my kids when I say we are below normal question it. Perhaps we spent too many mornings/days in barns and this feels like spring 😉

          1. They use the past 30 years as the time span to figure out the averages for temps and precipitation/
            snowfall.
            Interesting note here with snowfall is that NYC and Philadelphia average snowfall has gone up a few
            inches. Philadelphia used to be around 19 inches now is just over 21 and NYC used to be 22 inches now
            there up to 25. By comparison Hartford, CT used to be about 47-48 inches of snow now they are down to around 40-41 inches.

  38. The 12Z GFS is in:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121123%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_111_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=111&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F23%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    Sure looks to get pretty chilly around these parts when this system, whatever it
    turns out to be, moves on out.

  39. Lots of fog here this morning too. Hopefully there were no problems on the roads with freezing fog for the early shoppers.

    12Z GFS is interesting for wed. Colder than previous runs. Gives central and western MA a few inches of snow.

    1. Actually, the storm total qpf is between .5 and .75 inches in the area, so
      could be more than a few inches, depending on temperature. Could also see some snow in Boston.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F23%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=132&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  40. As I said yesterday I am not buying the inside runner solution. Even if it does affect us it looks to be a weak system and not a big deal.

  41. Its nice to finally have something to track since its been very boring around these parts. The only good news about this boring pattern is people got to where needed to get for the holiday and return home with no weather issues.

    1. Agreed JJ.

      Your comment earlier about the annual snowfall averages in the middle atlantic rising and areas to the north getting lower is interesting. Makes sense though. Ive felt when big storms have hit the east coast even in the last 10 or so years, areas to our south have ended up with more snow.

        1. What the…i think someone is playing a joke on us. The mystery of the dissappearing storm, scene 1, aaanndd, action!

          1. Sometime in late February, nearly wrapped up in production…..

            Scene of the Disappearing Storm, scene 9, take 3.

            Atmospheric Director/Producer Speaking :
            That was perfect, great job !! Another nearly snowless winter. Next atmospheric cast party when we resume late next October.

        1. The continuing saga of the disappearing storm! 😀 😀

          http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121123%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_111_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=111&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F23%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=50&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

            1. That because storm is too progressive. A less amplified system = weaker and OTS. If the jet stream sharpens and becomes more amplified, that could steer a stronger system toward NE. However, with lack of H to the north, I don’t think there would be enough cold air to generate a snow storm in SNE.

        1. Ok. But take a look at temps for next week. Lowest temp all week is Sunday at 41 according too Pete. If those temps hold that means 0 here.

    1. Im not. Just happened to see him tonight because no other news was on because of football. I do though read there blog everyday.

      1. In his defense Pete is not that bad. I just have channel five in my blood. Harvey is the best in my oppinion. I am waiting for Judah Cohan to return my email, I suspect I may be talking with him on Monday. It would be great if I could get them both on here.

  48. From Joe Joyce:
    I think we are clear enough on the weekend that we can start to look forward a bit. We know it is going to get colder, with breezy winds and sunshine. Of course I will have plenty of updates during the weekend on our weather. But right now, I would like to focus a bit more on this enigma of weather heading our way for Tuesday & Wednesday.

    The models are gradually starting to get a better handle on the pattern, but there is still a long way to go and the forecast will continue to evolve in the coming days. Most models are showing a wave of low pressure coming out of the southern Gulf states and tracking south of New England now. This is one area where the forecast will be highly dependent upon how close to the coast will this track. Most of the models are now taking this low off the mid-Atlantic coast line, where it will strengthen and track well south of the bench mark. This is a definite trend in the models towards the Euro, which has had the flattest and weakest flow of the bunch. In essence, the Euro is showing a non-event, which would make this blog a whole lot of talk about nothing. That would be unfortunate 🙂

    Meanwhile, The 12 Z GFS had a more robust low tracking along our south coast Tuesday night. Now the latest run, the less trustworthy 18 Z, has a weaker wave, but still the potential for several inches of snow in SNE into Wednesday. The US GFS still has a few loyal allies like the UKMET, Canadian, Japanese with similar looks and potential with accumulating snow potential in central and southern New England with more of a wet mix right at the coast…especially in SE MA. It is way to early for any sort of accumulation projection, as changes will continue to come. Who knows, we may end up with the flat non event of the Euro model.

    At this point, it is hard deny the energy which will be pouring into the trough and riding along this air mass boundary through the mid-Atlantic and south of New England. Cold air will be in advance of the low and in place during the low’s passage thanks to high pressure to our north. The 850 Zero line will not able to push very far north. This should help to increase our snow chances if this low passes close enough to us. If it all comes together, there is the potential for accumulating snowfall, especially away from the coast where there will likely be more of a wet mix keeping accumulations down. But again…this can all change so easily.

    What to take away from this? Temperatures are cooling this weekend. We will be on the cooler side of a low which will likely track south of us. We will likely be clipped by it’s northern fringe. Heaviest precip will likely fall in SNE if it comes together. As this low pulls away, gusty NW winds will usher in the coldest air so far with highs in the mid 30′s to end the week. A definite wintry spell of weather this week, and a sign of what to come in the very near future!

  50. I still think if we do get something midweek next week it will be a weak system and no big deal.
    Latest CPC outlook to me is not good with below normal precipitation with below normal temps in the 6-10 day outlook and above normal temps and normal precipitation.

    1. See the thing that bothers me is that all the mets say somthing different. One met high 40s next 30s. I’m Acctually going with Pete on this one with a nonevent.

  51. Well got the piecies of the snow maker. now i have to put it togeather. We put up about 85% of our outdoor decorations( we did the amount we did today in 2 days last year.) and this possible mid week storm just makes this even better. Just a small amount of snow would make me happy but the Merrimack valley(northeast mass is do for a large snow storm 🙂 I did not measure a snow storm that had more than 5 inches last year. even that october storm we only got 2 inches here in Billerica

  52. My bet is we will have to wait until Sunday for more consistent model consensus. It will be interesting to see who ends up being correct…Pete (non event) or Joe (snow).

    Pete said on his newscast that the model he is relying on is the one that tracked Sandy perfectly.

  55. 00Z GFS very close to 12Z GFS. A little more QPF but depicts a brief period of snow for SE MA going over to rain. GFS starting to show some consistency. Still have a feeling the EURO will come out on top again in the end.

  56. From joe Joyce
    I think we are clear enough on the weekend that we can start to look forward a bit. We know it is going to get colder, with breezy winds and sunshine. Of course I will have plenty of updates during the weekend on our weather. But right now, I would like to focus a bit more on this enigma of weather heading our way for Tuesday & Wednesday.

    The models are gradually starting to get a better handle on the pattern, but there is still a long way to go and the forecast will continue to evolve in the coming days. Most models are showing a wave of low pressure coming out of the southern Gulf states and tracking south of New England now. This is one area where the forecast will be highly dependent upon how close to the coast will this track. Most of the models are now taking this low off the mid-Atlantic coast line, where it will strengthen and track well south of the bench mark. This is a definite trend in the models towards the Euro, which has had the flattest and weakest flow of the bunch. In essence, the Euro is showing a non-event, which would make this blog a whole lot of talk about nothing. That would be unfortunate 🙂

    Meanwhile, The 12 Z GFS had a more robust low tracking along our south coast Tuesday night. Now the latest run, the less trustworthy 18 Z, has a weaker wave, but still the potential for several inches of snow in SNE into Wednesday. The US GFS still has a few loyal allies like the UKMET, Canadian, Japanese with similar looks and potential with accumulating snow potential in central and southern New England with more of a wet mix right at the coast…especially in SE MA. It is way to early for any sort of accumulation projection, as changes will continue to come. Who knows, we may end up with the flat non event of the Euro model.

    At this point, it is hard deny the energy which will be pouring into the trough and riding along this air mass boundary through the mid-Atlantic and south of New England. Cold air will be in advance of the low and in place during the low’s passage thanks to high pressure to our north. The 850 Zero line will not able to push very far north. This should help to increase our snow chances if this low passes close enough to us. If it all comes together, there is the potential for accumulating snowfall, especially away from the coast where there will likely be more of a wet mix keeping accumulations down. But again…this can all change so easily.

    What to take away from this? Temperatures are cooling this weekend. We will be on the cooler side of a low which will likely track south of us. We will likely be clipped by it’s northern fringe. Heaviest precip will likely fall in SNE if it comes together. As this low pulls away, gusty NW winds will usher in the coldest air so far with highs in the mid 30′s to end the week. A definite wintry spell of weather this week, and a sign of what to come in the very near future!

  57. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    In which layer of the atmosphere is ozone most commonly found?

    A) Stratosphere
    B) Troposphere
    C) Mesosphere
    D) Ionosphere

  58. Some lake effect snow showers in western NY State and northern Michigan.

    My earned trust is with the EURO. At some point, the GFS is going to be correct and the EURO will be wrong and then, I’ll reevaluate. I do root for the GFS in that, the area needs some precip.

    Quiz above : C ?

  59. @JoeJoyceWBZ: Just took a look at the 06z GFS, although not a typically reliable run it does show some notable accumulating snow inland w/ strong low prsr

  60. just looked at 6z gas and it does show some decent snow here in Worcester area. Hard to ignore the Euro though since it is still king. I’ll still bet on the euro until it’s snowing in my yard.

    I’ll be rooting for crazy GFS though! 🙂

  61. Didn’t one of the models several years ago lose the storms days 3-6, and then they reappeared on day 2 and in some cases ended up pretty big storms?

  66. Dear Santa,

    I’m sitting here with my 4 year old, who is saying, “I want that !” during every commercial….by the way, sorry about that…..I hope she’s on the the nice list ?? anyhow, I digress…….

    I have a meterological Christmas wish. There’s this broken, nicely intentioned, but not very accurate weather model that continually breaks the heart of my friends down here, who are hoping for snow this winter. I know your very busy up there, so you might not know that heat miser ruled the whole US last winter. If you could send Mrs. Claus to talk with him again, that would be great.

    Anyhow, oh yes, the broken, nicely intentioned weather model thats causing heartache. Its doing it again…… Oh, its real easy to remember its name, goes by three letters, GFS. Well, its forecasting that jolly white stuff to fall in about 5 days and….I hope your not using it on Christmas Eve to determine your safest route and if you need to bring Rudolph along. I digress again….

    Anyhow, please Santa, if you want to help all the snow lovers and especially the nice people here on the blog and a forecaster who works at Accuweather, please, please, please, could you please……please consider sending us a new computer weather model that works a little better ? Maybe on the way home, you could take the old GFS with you, bring it back to the North Pole and dismantle it.

    Thanks Santa. Milk and cookies will be on the table.

  68. I am ready for the snow. The leaves have been raked and bagged.
    Speaking of snow the lake effect machine is starting up.

  69. Interesting to note the NWS saying that the euro is offshore, maybe I looked at the wrong thing but I swear it had a decent track. Hmmmm

    1. I was just thinking the same thing. I do believe that after last years winter in which nearly all potential events did not come to fruition, some local mets and larger weather outlets are hesitant to jump on the snow wagon again. I think it will take a few storms to get everyone believing in the snow santa.

Comments are closed.