November’s Home Stretch

59 Comments

9:15AM

This evening’s update will focus on the week ahead (Monday through Sunday).

This update will focus on the last 6 days of November (today through Friday).

It’s a chilly/dry pattern for November’s home stretch. A strong west northwest flow that was established with a cold front’s passage early Saturday will continue today before relaxing Monday. It will be strong enough today to pick up moisture from the Great Lakes (snow showers abundant around that area to the mountains of western New England) and drag it across New England. A few stray snow showers may try to reach southern New England (especially the interior and hills) before drying up during this afternoon/evening. So this means that the sun from the morning will share the sky with clouds this afternoon. Monday will be a sunnier day as dry air is dominant and the air flow relaxes somewhat. An open wave of low pressure will move rapidly east northeastward from the Mid Atlantic into the waters southeast of New England Tuesday and Wednesday. This storm will intensify over water but be moving so quickly and be far enough south to limit the precipitation threat for southern New England. It will be cold enough for snow in most areas, except some mix/rain immediate coastal areas and over Cape Cod & the Islands. Anyway, precipitation will be very light from this event over most areas and any snow accumulation is likely to be limited. High pressure returns with cold/dry weather to end the week.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny this morning. Sun mixed with clouds this afternoon with a slight chance of a stray snow shower reaching some areas mainly well north and west of Boston. Highs around 40. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated light snow showers early, followed by clearing. Lows in the 20s. Wind W diminishing to around 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. PM light snow inland, mix coast, mix/rain Cape Cod and the Islands. Low 22. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 27. High 38.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 36.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 40.

59 thoughts on “November’s Home Stretch”

  2. it will be cold enough to make snow. I might bring out my new snow maker and see how much snow i can make this week. 🙂

  3. Stick a fork it in, it’s done! 😀

    12Z NAM => MISS
    06Z GFS => MISS
    0Z runs => Puke!

    12Z GFS cranking now.

    2. 12Z GFS Wed Morning:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121125%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=075&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F25%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=13&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

      1. I think that’s the EURO from 3 or 4 days ago 😉

        Don’t worry, we’ll get ours soon enough. Long way to go before sticking a fork in this winter. Remember 2 years ago? We were all saying it wouldn’t snow and then the day after Xmas happened and it never stopped.

        1. Its not even winter till I believe December 20 officially, I believe. Folks will be crying uncle by march. The dryness will not hold all winter.

  5. Idk after this week, models r fairly confident on a mild early-mid Dec, is anyone else seeing the same? I’m seeing a lot of 40’s and 50’s 😉

  6. UGH meter now up to a 9. It will be a 10 tomorrow but I got to leave open the possiblity for a change within 24 hours of the storm. I enjoyed the 6 inches of snow I had back on the 7th of the month. Its look like its going to turn mild. I just hope we get one good storm about a week before Christmas so it will be a white one.

      1. Son works Christmas this year. Maybe Christmas Eve. That’s a 20 on my ugh meter. I hope u don’t have to John

  7. Does anyone know if this is the first day that’s stayed in the 30s? I finally turned the heat on so think it must be

    1. JJ’s snow frustration level.
      The higher the reading, the higher the frustration level, based on 0-10. 😀

  10. I really think Jan is going to be cold with between 8-15 inches for the month, but believe Dec will be mild 🙂

  12. When is a decent precip event coming ?? Thank goodness the sun angle is low. Except for Worcester and they are only at 1.03 inches, the other 3 major climo stations are under 1 inch for November.

  13. Tk,

    Our office Christmas Party is on the Odyssey on Friday Night, Dec 14.
    Any thoughts on the weather for then? Accuweather has Boston partly cloudy and
    39 for a high that day. To me, looking at the 384 hour on the GFS, looks like
    it “might” become stormy.

    Many thanks 😀

    1. We had one on the odyssey several years back and it was a blast. They are brave scheduling it for December.

      1. Yes, Indeed. I’m sure they got a good price.

        I’m not so worried about any cold, as it should be heated just fine.
        I am, however, worried about any storminess. If the boat starts
        rocking, I’ll get sick without medication. 😀

        1. Ill second Sue. My husband grew up sailing and spent the first 3 days seasick. We’ve been on several of the cruises in the harbor and he’s never had any trouble.

    3. OS…I went on the Spirit of Boston the night before Hurricane Irene hit and could barely tell we were on a boat. They go so slow and remain in the harbor so I am thinking you shouldn’t have a tough time. Those cruises are great so I hope you have a fantastic time.

      1. Sue did you get to Humarock. There were so many fewer people than normal. We enjoyed though and had a picnic in the car after 🙂

        1. We did not end up in Humarock. We were at the Marshfield playground for a bit and then the boys were cold so we went to an indoor play area. Glad you had fun.

  14. Hi All-I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!

    I have really enjoyed the weather this November. It has been a little colder on average than I thought it would be. This November has been a lot sunnier than average. 19-21 days have been sunny or partly sunny depending on where you live in Massachusetts.. November is usually the cloudiest month with only 14-15 days of sun during the month. It has been about 2 degrees cooler at Boston, Providence, and Hartford. To the north in Concord NH and Burlington VT average temperatures have been about normal. Another interesting note is the further inland you go away from the coast the high temps have been close to normal, while the low temps have been far below normal. The clear, calm nights and the abundance of sunshine has caused these these big temp swings.

    The Tuesday/Wednesday system looks like a non event at this point and truthfully it has looked like that for a few days. Not sure what some of the mets who were pushing this thing were thinking, but hey everyone interprets data differently, right?

  15. this storm is out to sea with nothing for us. maybe a few snow and rain showers south of the pike thats it 🙁

      1. im a greedy snow lover. dump as much as you can over the 128/495 belt i do not care about the other places. just dump it here. I do not want to hear cape or central mass give me some snow here before those areas 😀

  18. Scott,
    Are you still looking for a more active pattern after the first week of December? I just read a post from a local met down on the cape that thinks it will be more active after that time frame.

  20. Tonight was so clear you could easily see the conga line of jets with holiday travelers approaching Logan from MetroWest. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!

  22. Nothing surprising about BB winter look out. Pretty much what everyone has been saying.

    JMA any thoughts on your winter outlook?

  23. Interesting that BB’s forecast is not entirely consistent with the WBZ weather team forecast. BB calls for near to below average snowfall while the WBZ official team forecast is calling for above to well above normal snow for Boston with 45-60″.

    BB’s forecast and discussion of the pattern/setup this winter is nearly identical to TK’s. The analog to 2009-2010 was mentioned again – a year with a strong block where storms hit the mid atlantic and then passed to our south OTS.

    It appears Todd and Joe Joyce (and other winter forecasts I have seen) are banking on at least a few of these storms to make the turn up the coast and clock us, tipping the scales from a below to above normal winter.

    The exact strength and placement of the block is going to make all the difference this winter as to whether we see some big coastal storms here in SNE or we see them miss to our south or develop and sit just too far out to sea. It only takes a few storms where everything sets up right, along with a series of light to moderate events the rest of the winter, to yield an above to well above normal winter.

    One things for sure, with all the cold air we should have to work with this winter, and the more frequent blocking, we should have plenty of interesting weather to track.

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