The Week Ahead

94 Comments

2:44AM

Simple week as we end November and start December. High pressure slides in for a bright, chilly Monday even though a weak boundary will cross the region virtually unnoticed. Tuesday’s a cloudy day with a touch of light snow mainly near and south of the Mass Pike (mix Cape Cod & Islands). This will be a very low impact event as it is a flat open wave of low pressure moving very rapidly along to the east northeast with very little support. Upper level trough swings through Wednesday with lots of clouds and a few snow showers. High pressure will be in general control Thursday & Friday with chilly/dry weather, though a weak reinforcing cold front late Thursday will result in Friday being the colder of the 2 days. The weekend (December’s first two days) will likely present more clouds and moderating temperatures.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds south to north. Lows 23-28. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. A period of light snow mainly across the southern half of eastern MA and RI except mixed rain/snow in coastal RI across Cape Cod & the Islands. Snow accumulation less than 1 inch in areas that it falls. Highs 35-40. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds northwest to southeast. Lows 22-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy.  Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 43.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 23. High 37.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 39.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 32. High 49.

94 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. Thanks TK.
    Nusiance event coming up for some parts of SNE. Then late in the weekend early next week it looks like 50s will be returning just like they were for Thanksgiving. I don’t see any big snow events for the first week of December:(

    1. 50s on the weekend is good for leaf raking and other outdoor projects… we could use a few more kind days for these things.

      1. I agree, Amy – and it will be good for putting up Christmas lights if you didn’t have a chance this past weekend 🙂 The few flurries tomorrow will be a nice tease!!!

      2. I won’t complain about a milder opening weekend of December. Even though I plan on having any decorating outside completely finished off by Friday (it is 95% done other than a few light set replacements and other tweaks), this weekend I’ll do the final final yard cleanup because my city has one last yard waste pick up on the 1st week of December. It will also be nice for a couple walks through the woods (I have 3 places I really like to walk in Stoneham, Woburn, & Lexington and I think I’ll hit 2 of them this weekend).

  4. Hmm..

    This has changed some:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zecmwfnao.gif

    2012112600z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: -119.057961
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: -109.458038
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: -75.8460083
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: -25.7521706
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: -98.7593613
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: -101.675301
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -51.1847763
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -3.37357903
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: -13.3431244
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: -77.2633362
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: -82.0392075

    1. Hadi,

      I thought the last posting of the EURO nao showed some positive values? Am I wrong on this? Doesn’t this look better for a colder spell and less warming?

      1. It did. That is why I stated that it has changed.

        BUT, as JJ points out below, it is NOT that negative and
        is close to neutral on some days.

        Ho Hum

        1. Looking at the latest GFS it does not look promising for any meanigful snow all the way out to 384 hours.
          It looks like a trough develops at the end of the run here in the east.

  7. Just looking at the latest NAO chart its slightly negative now but then goes back to slightly negative only to dip to neutral.
    This is not the setup you want to see if your a fan of the cold and snow.

    1. your probably getting lift from the mountains. if their are mountains around you the mostiure was trapped and its now falling.

  9. Read Barry’s winter outlook and it should come as no surprise that I completely agree with him.

    We’re already IN the pattern, and yes it will break down and reconfigure at times but all the signs point to the pattern being dominant. No real way around it. And that’s ok with me because it’s my favorite winter pattern anyway. 🙂

  10. Interesting that BB’s forecast is not entirely consistent with the WBZ weather team forecast. BB calls for near to below average snowfall while the WBZ official team forecast is calling for above to well above normal snow for Boston with 45-60″.

    BB’s forecast and discussion of the pattern/setup this winter is nearly identical to TK’s. The analog to 2009-2010 was mentioned again – a year with a strong block where storms hit the mid atlantic and then passed to our south OTS.

    It appears Todd and Joe Joyce (and other winter forecasts I have seen) are banking on at least a few of these storms to make the turn up the coast and clock us, tipping the scales from a below to above normal winter.

    The exact strength and placement of the block is going to make all the difference this winter as to whether we see some big coastal storms here in SNE or we see them miss to our south or develop and sit just too far out to sea. It only takes a few storms where everything sets up right, along with a series of light to moderate events the rest of the winter, to yield an above to well above normal winter.

    One things for sure, with all the cold air we should have to work with this winter, and the more frequent blocking, we should have plenty of interesting weather to track.

  11. After a relatively mild first week of December, the GFS has a very cold pattern setting for the second week of December and heading into the middle of the month. Maybe something interesting to track around the 7th?

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F26%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  13. Whats with that streak of snow just south of Chicago? The nam had it in Iowa but then losses it. Its obviously there on the radar. Grabbing at straws I know.

  15. Hey Coastal,

    Euro looks to have a little more moisture further north nothing crazy but its something to watch.

  16. i know this is not weather related but I am wondering if there are any hunters on this page. Do to the fact that i have some questions. I have a cousin dating this guy. He says its legal to kill deer and MOOSE for thier antlers. is that true. Also what part of the deer is useful?Since he says alot of it is not useful and is thrown out!! Just the idea of eating a deer is disgusting. I understand the control and everything its just that i thought you had to make sure you use all the parts of the deer?

      1. I agree – can be a bit gamier but venison prepared properly is very good. I would be really upset if a deer were killed simply for the antlers and not used for any other purpose.

        1. seen this kid take the antlers and head thats it which really ticked me off was when he posted a pic of the head on the wall of his house.

  17. Nam has shifted more precip to the north. It has the .25 to .5 just north of Plymouth. Looked like SE Mass gets clipped when the storm start to develop.

  18. Im the far western Pacific (northern hemisphere, fairly low latitude) is a fairly healthy tropical system that looks to be developing.

    I have no idea its potential future, but I find it interesting because if it became a decent tropical cyclone and got steered northward and eventually northeastward, headed towards Alaska (in a week or two), and transitioned to a strong mid latitude storm, sometimes those can be game changers in terms of overall patterns.

  19. 18z Nam
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20121126%2F18%2Fnam_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=039&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F26%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

    12z Nam
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20121126%2F12%2Fnam_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=039&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F26%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

  20. I think that most of the snow falls during daylight hrs making me believe most of us will see very little if any accumulation, also most of the moisture will be outa here by 2 or 3 Tue afternoon, have a good day everyone 🙂

    1. The daylight rule won’t work that well: 1) Sun angle too low. 2) Cold ground from cold pattern.

  21. Lots of dry air in place…if this feature is capable of producing .1 QPF, nearly all of that might be used to just moisten the column.

  22. Beautiful weather continues, but there is cause for concern, namely, the drought conditions that appear to still be affecting most of our nation. Worst conditions since 1956: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-26/u-s-winter-wheat-crop-worsening-as-dry-weather-curtails-growth.html

    It certainly feels like this month has been especially dry.

    By the way, although I think the 2009-2010 winter may be an analog in terms of blocking, negative NAO and other meteorological factors, let’s not think that the winter of 2009-2010 will repeat itself. The mid-Atlantic got absolutely hammered in 2009-2010. Unprecedented storms. I recall a 35 incher in Baltimore. We will not see that again, at least I don’t think so. Similarly, the winters of 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 were anomalous to a degree where I doubt we’ll see those kinds of winters anytime soon.

    1. Joshua I agree re drought. And even the areas who saw precip in October have gone back to well below normal in water levels. Thanks for the link. I’m off to read it

  23. Tk I have received word from Judah today and he would like a link to the blog.this gentleman is a very well respected man in the weather field. I just want to make sure that you want him here. So will you guys know each other. If he knows you the transition migh be easier. I will await your instructions. It will be a real honor for this blog too have him posting here.

  24. I am in very close agreement with Barry and TK on the winter forecast. Certainly not my strength, but I see a similar forecast and I am sure that surprises no one here. I do foresee on average just slightly below normal temperatures instead of sharply below normal average temps. That comes from 2 reasons. I believe that like November, we will be in a drier and less cloud cover than on average in a slightly negative NAO/AO pattern and neutral ENSO and negative PNA. These clear and often calm winter nights will cause ideal cooling scenarios, creating some extremely cold low temperatures, but it will be averaged out by high temperatures rising to or slightly above climo during the daytime due to the abundant sunshine and yes, at times a lack of snow cover. Look for the GFS/NAM to struggle with high and low temps in this pattern. Highs will be forecasted to be too low and lows too high. The lack of snow cover and higher percentage of sunshine to climo will cause daytime highs to be forecasted too low and the lack of clouds and lighter winds that set up in this pattern will cause the night time time lows to drop below modeled output. The other reason is at times our flow will turn more zonal and a pacific NW flow will allow for a moderation in temperatures. This is very different the SW flow and SE Ridge that set up last year and allowed for soaring temperatures, but it does allow for a some moderation in daytime highs and in particular nighttime lows.

    As for winter storms, yes there will be some, but on average a below normal snowfall is anticipated, as depending on the climatic set up when storms form the Mid-Atlantic states could become the bullseye or during greater blocking periods, storms will shunted out to sea. More than likely look for more clipper type storms in a split flow whose redevelopment will take place closer to the predominant eastern trough that is too far offshore for a significant impact on SNE.

    As for the immediate future, some light snow is possible tomorrow south little or no accumulation expected. Then some cooler temps, but not as cool as could have been if tomorrow’s storm had turned out to be more vigorous. Then warm up for the weekend. Next significant precipitation event could be around ~the 8th. That should be wet instead of white if it does happen, then perhaps a brief shot of cold temps, followed by some moderation as we slip into that more zonal flow I talked about earlier.

  25. Thanks JMA!!

    For what it’s worth which is probably not much, the NAM is more robust for SE mass and the cape in terms of QPF.

  26. From NWS BOS a few hours ago – when will we have a bead on the 0Z runs?

    @NWSBoston: New fcst models show a swath of light snow across interior SNE along & S of the MA-pike @ midday Tuesday #MAwx #CTwx #RIwx

  27. For sure more QPF on that run, could be the energy is a little more robust. NY area should do well if the NAM verifies. SE mass could see some decent overunning precip. But also could be typical bias of the nam with precip. I will say precip in areas where the storm is coming from look higher than what was anticipated.

  30. I think the cape could make out the best on this storm. I think muh further up the dry air will eat away at most of the precip.

  31. The NAM I think is a little overdone with the QPF. This is going to be a MINOR event. The storm system develops too far out over the fish.

  34. Ironically, i think this type of storm will be the norm this winter. It would not surprise me if SE MA ends up with more snow than western MA for the season.

  38. I am still thinking a level 1 snow event (dusting to 4 inches) for the areas that get the snow. Looking at the latest model runs southeastern parts of SNE best shot of seeing the most from this system.

  39. I’ve seen 2 forecasts with 3-6″ swaths that extend into our area, one of those from WeatherWizard… I just don’t think the surface temps will allow for that. Will keep a close eye on the radars tomorrow.

  40. I’m not sure its all that dry out there right now. I’m reading 75% humidity with 24 deg dewpoint here in Easton. Column wouldn’t need to be moistened much more from here to get snow down to the surface once it starts.

  41. The 0z and 6z GFS shows .5 to .75 up to Boston while the same runs on the NAM show that reaching to Plymouth. A trend in the model starting with yesterday afternoon runs.

  42. Clearly the nam and GFS ate trying to form a norlon trough. That’s the only way to account for the precip amounts. That’s really hard to forecast so a blown forecast
    Can easily occur on either end.

  43. Let’s hope for a little excitement around here today. Anyone remember the storm in 2010/11 I think it was around this time when the cape got clobbered with about a foot of snow and they were calling for lighter amounts?? Then we got the big storm after christmas and it kept coming and coming. Maybe this year will be the same?

          1. I didn’t remember the cape getting a foot. We were at the beach – it was probably mid-January – and got about 4 inches. It disappeared as quickly as it arrived

  44. Was it last year? I thought it was the year before but anyways maybe today will get a couple more inches then expected.

  52. Expected snow by 9AM in my location. It started to very lightly flake about 8:01AM just as I started the trilogy of Trans-Siberian Orchestra Christmas CDs. 🙂

    Just updated blog but there are no changes to it, just a carry-forward update.

    See you there. 🙂

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