Tuesday Midday Update

140 Comments

8:09AM

12:43PM (edit for time period and to tweak snow amount through tonight – no major changes still)

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT: Overcast with periods of light snow northern MA/southern NH with little accumulation, periods of light to occasionally moderate snow elsewhere except sometimes mixed or rain in coastal areas with snow accumulations mostly a coating to around 1 inch except locally around 2 inches in some higher elevations south and southwest of Boston. Temperatures holding in the 30s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy.  Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 43.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 23. High 37.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 39.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 32. High 49.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 44.

140 thoughts on “Tuesday Midday Update”

  1. Tk, Thanks for the update.

    Hey what happened. I was busy yesterday and couldn’t monitor much. I checked
    briefly in the AM and it was still an OTS miss. I watch Todd last night and it was
    1-3 inches!

    Checking the 06Z NAm and 06Z GFS precip up to Boston is approaching .5 inches.
    Here is the 36 hour GFS totals:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121127%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_042_precip_p36.gif&fcast=042&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p36&cycle=11%2F27%2F2012+06UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=53&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

    The models certainly showing a slightly more potent system passing closer to shore
    than depicted yesterday. 😀

    1. Of course, those were the 06Z runs with limited data.

      We’ll see what the 12Z runs show and other than that, it is
      NOWcasting. 😀

  3. Agree with TK. No need to adjust forecast. NAM overdone. You could tell it is confused at 00/27 when you looked at its MOS data and lack of continuity between its precip amounts, its POPS, its accumulating precip, its temps and then its snow tool output.

    Best QPF south, NE flow off the water will push temps towards 40 there. Where temps better support snow too little QPF for anything significant.

  4. From my couch, I can see the Berkeley Building (the old Hancock Building) weather beacon. It’s one of my favorite things about where I live.

    The adage for the weather beacon goes “Solid blue, clear view. Flashing blue, clouds due. Solid red, rain ahead. Flashing red, snow instead.” It was great to see the flashing red for the first time this morning!

    Flashing red also indicates that the sox are rained out. 😀

    2. That light should have been flashing red all summer because the Sox were all washed up. 😉

      Ok that’s the last time I’ll joke about the 2012 Red Sox. 😛

      That building housed the oldest private weather company in the country starting in the 1940s which eventually became the company I worked with for many years (though located in towns NW of Boston at that point).

      1. LOVE that fact about you! And about the building!

        And I’m fairly certain folks will be joking about the ’12 Sox for years. And rightfully so.

    3. What an amazing view. As children we could see it from where we lived and counted on it to know what to expect. I’d forgotten about it

  5. Just to qualify the ‘tonight’ part of my forecast, unchanged from the previous update. It is worded as such because there should be a thrust of drier air that will probably break up the cloud cover for a time before a little wrap around energy throws clouds and maybe a few snow showers in for Wednesday. There is also a secondary boundary coming along right behind the departing flat wave that may add to the cloudiness on Wednesday as well.

    I’m not sure how fast we get into mostly cloudy conditions at the end of the week and this weekend so I just left things alone for now. Considering adding a chance of a touch of light rain somewhere over the weekend due to warm air advection, but low enough confidence to also just leave that alone for now since it’s several days away.

  6. I noticed on the radar some dark blue returns just west of us in New York State. The west to east line brings them to the Mass/NH Border.

  7. Thanks TK.
    Snowing lightly and not sticking to the roads which is good for people that have to get around today. Could be some slick spots tonight.

  9. flurries in Marshfield.

    I told my daughter it might snow a bit today/tonight. My wife standing nearby, tapped her on the head after seeing her excitement and told her that meant “Mostly Sunny”. 🙂

  13. Those solid green radar returns around NYC and northwest NJ are being confirmed with many reports 11am obs of moderate rain or snow in that region. Certainly more than I anticipated.

  14. Watching radar loop from 6:00 a.m. to current doesn’t show much movement of precip to the south, which is why I thought the forecast for north of the pike was coating at best. It looks like the heavier bands just north/west of the mix line in NY/NJ are on a track for 495/95…anybody think that the precip will accumulate later this evening/overnight inside 495?

  15. Like I’ve said bc the snow is falling during daylight it will limit snowfall accumulation to very little 🙂

    2. The temperatures are above freezing which makes it harder for the snow to accumulate. If the snow was coming down harder like back on the 7th of the month the snow would be able to accumulate a lot better.

  17. I think the bigger issue this evening and overnight is the slick spots that could develop. Be careful anyone working 2nd or 3rd shift. This system is a nusiance and only a level 1 snow event. (Dusting- 4 inches) The low pressure center moving off the coast near southeastern Virginia but instead of moving northeast and giving us bigger snow totals its going to continue to move east and stay south of us.

  19. Latest OBS from Boston (logan), Providence, Taunton
    all indicate RAIN! 😀

    It is NOT raining here and I am only maybe 2 miles from Logan.
    ALL snow, no rain mixed it at all.

      1. I’m sitting right next to a window and clearly it is snowing. 😀

        It must be all the hot air blowing around the hospital! 😀

  20. Newton: light snow, large flakes at the moment. No accumulation of course, just melting when it hits the ground.

  24. I just edited this entry and changed title and time periods to be more current. Only up-tweaked snow slightly in higher elevations south and southwest of Boston. Still a minor event. Watch for some slick roads tonight in areas where snow is steady for a while.

  25. Clearly NWS going with NAM

    MADE MAJOR EDITS TO ONGOING FORECAST AS PRECIP CONTINUES TO MVOE
    ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC HAS BEGUN TO
    DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CURRENT RADAR
    IMAGERY SHOWERS A WIDE SWATH OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO HAVE UP POPS CONSIDERABLY. TEMPS ARE
    SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE SO SNOW MAY SWITCH TO RAIN ESP ACROSS THE
    SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE TO MARINE
    INFLUENCES. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SW ACROSS THE
    AREA…AND WILL SWITCH TO MOVE NORTHERLY COMPONET BY THIS EVENING
    AS SURFACE LOW MOVES CLOSER. HAVE INCREASED QPF AS CURRENT OBS AND
    LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWERS A GOOD AMOUNT FALLING ACROSS THE
    SOUTH COAST. THIS WILL INCREASE SNOW TOTALS…WHICH ARE NOW A
    GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES. EXPECT HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR CT
    AND RI. BELIEVE SE MASS WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT AS WELL BUT THIS
    WONT HAPPEN TIL THIS EVENING WHEN TEMPS BEGIN TO PLUNGE. LIKE THE
    NAM QPF AS WELL AS THE RFC. HI RES MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB
    WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE/SURFACE TEMPS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
    AND MAKE UPDATES WHEN NEEDED.– End Changed Discussion —

  27. Just went home for lunch. Snow in JP, but here at the office now it is a very very wet
    snow with rain mixed in.

  28. I had been traveling for work in CT this morning and saw a variety of weather. Was snowing in Ansonia (interior SW part of state) with about an inch of snow on the ground. On the way back, turned to rain near New Haven, then had moderate snow with big flakes and very low visibility from Wallingford all the way up to Hartford. Really struggling to accumulate though in the lower elevations with temps above freezing. Roads are just wet. I would be surprised if anyone in the State reaches 2″, even in the higher elevations.

    The intensity of the snow was heavier than I expected, it’s just not translating to much in the way of accumulation. If this came through at night, it probably would have been a different story.

    1. Mark this is a nusiance event compared to November 7th when the shoreline recorded 8.3 at Sykorsky making it the biggest
      snowfall for the month of November. I think an 1-1.5 inches tops. Back edge of the precipitation approaching the Hudson
      River Valley.

  29. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…

    — Changed Discussion —
    130 PM UPDATE… CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO
    ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
    DEVELOPMENT OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND IS APPROACHING SNE. TEMPS
    CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND THE MID 30S WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ACROSS
    THE EAST COAST. WIDE SPREAD SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING SINCE EARLY THIS
    MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN
    IS BEING REPORTED CLOSER TO THE COAST LINES WHICH IS EXPECTED AS
    MARINE AIR WILL INFILTRATE THOSE LOCATIONS. CONTINUE TO INCREASE
    QPF AS IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS FOR GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW TO FALL
    WILL INCREASE DURING THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW
    PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. CURRENT SNOW FALL TOTAL LOOKS TO BE
    WIDELY AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA WITH 2-3 INCHES IN INTERIOR CT/RI
    AND IN SOUTHEAST MASS…NORTH OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. CONTEMPLATING
    THE IDEA OF A WINTER WX ADV FOR SAID LOCATIONS…WAITING TO SEE
    NEWEST EC AND 18Z NAM BEFORE DECIDING.
    — End Changed Discussion —

  31. Does anyone know a good place I can get a digital indoor/outdoor weather station? Nothing too fancy, just temp, humidity, dewpoint, barometric pressure.

  34. Wind is still calm, so its actually snowing lightly in far eastern Marshfield, very rare to snow on this side of town this time of year, at least in the 11 + years I’ve lived here.

      1. It stinks though that snizzle means you have to squint and pause to determine whether it’s snow or rain.

        2. It was even worse – I had to go outside to be sure 🙁

          I like the term too, Tom……I just don’t like it !

  38. Temps are starting to cool now. It should start sticking during the evening. It was snowing in Plymouth when my wife left work.

  39. Winter weather advisories now in effect for interior southern CT for 2-4″. Would be surprised if those totals materialize. The snow has really died down here and the highest totals I have seen reported in the State so far are 1″. We have 1″ at my house in Coventry (700′ elev) according the NWS statement so I guess I got the jackpot!!!!

    Highest totals I have seen outside NE so far are 3″ in Essex Count NJ and 4″ in Orange County, NY.

  41. Remember folks its only Nov 27th!! No reason to be disappointed with anything we get!!

    But Mark loving your 1 inch jackpot!!!!

  46. MikeyMac 79.0
    John 76.5
    Coastal 62.0
    Old Salty 60.0
    Nick 56.8
    North 55.7
    tjammer 54.0
    Hadi 53.9
    Haterain 52.3
    Mark 50.3
    Cat966g 50.0
    Kirbet 48.0
    Retrac 46.0
    Scott 45.0
    Shreedhar 43.0
    Shotime 42.5
    DS 41.5
    TK 39.3
    Kane 38.5
    Philip 37.4
    JimmyJames 37.4
    Sue 36.2
    Captain 33.0
    Longshot 33.0
    Tom 31.0
    Matt 30.0
    Scott77 29.0
    Joshua 27.0
    AceMaster 25.9
    Rainshine 24.0
    Charlie 21.3
    Vicki 18.3

  47. The intensity of the precip seems to have picked up a bit in Marshfield and there seems to be an enhanced band in east central CT, around Willimantic, CT.

  48. I’m wondering if the precipitation stops sooner rather than later. Raining here in Hanover. I’m hoping for just the smallest trace to cover walkways at work so we can head in.

    2. Snowing here in Hanover. Chairs, dirt and grass in my yard is getting covered. Temp is 33 and see is 31.

      First snow of the season for us.

      2. Narrow band of heavier precip setting up from eastern CT thru northern RI and into interior SE Mass. Mix rain and snow in eastern Marshfield, but Coastal, I think you are going to have a couple interesting hours coming up here.

          1. Well, I’d say about now thru the next hour based on the current radar. Seeing some of the best radar echos between eastern RI and interior south shore. Perhaps its where some big snow flakes are flying ??

          1. I dont think so….latest obs show surface winds from N/NE at coastline 3 to 5 mph and just that light breeze has locations like Marshfield at their “mildest” of the day. So, I dont think this area of steady precip makes it to Boston and it might be too mild along the coast the next few hours, so that it is rain showers.

              1. If the skies were to clear before sunrise and before the pavements can dry, there could be some icy spots around.

      3. Really. I just left karate by building 19, no white at all just wet. Same in pembroke with a tad I mean small trace on a rock or roof barley.

  49. Thanks again Vicki for posting those numbers. What is really ironic is that the average of our figures comes out to 43.1″ (rounded off)…which is pretty much Logan’s average snowfall for a typical winter (43.8″). 😀

    1. To me the radar looks to sit from just barely mass pike south. May I assume that’s when the accumulation for what it’s worth will come into play?

    2. Thanks for the link Scott. It was a great read. I won’t pretent I know a lot about the scientific aspects of the weather. Fascinating yes, but a lot of that article i was lost. I am however skeptical of complex analysis such as that. There are so many variables involved. Some which still cannot be explained or understood. For #100 to happen, #’s 1-99 have to occur, in order, and in the right way. One unpredicted event can throw the entire thing off. It is fun to speculate and analyze though, which is why we are all here 🙂

  52. On this date in 1898 Boston received exactly 12.0″ of snow! That winter of 1898-99 ended up with a whopping 70.9″ total. 🙂

    The storm was known as the “Portland Gale” if I am not mistaken.

    1. The Portland gale caused horrific damage. Much was in the area where tom and coastal and sue and John live. I have a book on it. It’s when Humarock where we vacation was separated from the scituate mainland. Many people ignored the warnings.

  54. Wow…we had an intense band set up for awhile over northern/northeast CT. Drove home in moderate to heavy snow with deteriorating road conditions. There was virtually nothing on the ground at the office in Manchester but we have 3″ at my house in Coventry! Very pretty scene. The change 500′ change in elevation had a huge impact on the snow accumulation as it often does.

    Placed my spotter report into the NWS – we’ll see if we end up with the jackpot!! Perhaps someone in SE MA may exceed that total ??

  55. Had a harrowing experience while picking up my daughter from daycare. Went inside the house to pick her up while my 5 year old son decided to stay by my car and play in the snow in the driveway. A minute later he comes in and says “Dad, the car just moved down the driveway”. Went outside and my SUV had slid 30 feet down the driveway. Car was off and in the Park position. Driveway has a very slight incline but had a good 2″ of wet pasty snow on it. Never again – will always use the e-brake!! Thanks God my son wasnt behind the car when it started sliding!!

    4. Wow. Gods blessing

      Mark the ebrake might not help. Our cars regularly slip into the road so we have to make sure the wheels are not on ice. We’ve tried everything else. And we barely have an incline. It’s momentum and ice combined and the wheels done even move. Just slide

      1. Thought about that after I posted the comment as well. You are right Vicki…the emergency brake likely would not have made a difference. The wheels were locked and didn’t roll to begin with – car just slid on the snow. Scary but fortunately all is well.

        1. Glad everything is ok. I always check to make sure I am in park, but our driveway is on an incline and I will think twice about it now when parking in the snow.

  57. Thanks Mark for your update on your location. It seems that eastern CT, RI and extreme SE MA ends up being the sweet spot for heavy snow bursts for some reason. IIRC the one “snowstorm” we had last year around mid-January, a solid foot accumulated in that same location which ended up being the jackpot for SNE while Boston N&W ended up with a measly 2-4″.

    I am wondering if coastal fronts tend to set up in these areas moreso when storms pass well to our south and therefore enhance the snowfall? ❓

    2. Don’t know what it is, but the last 3 or 4 years, we have taken the brunt of a lot of these storms in CT. We’ve had some good banding set up over us on many occasions that have inflated our snow totals. Traditionally it is the opposite – my location close to the CT River Valley often ends up in a “snow shadow” between the hills east and west of us, and we get dry slotted.

  58. even though we had snow falling basically all morning through the middle of the afternoon we had no snow accumulation. It melted on contact. swear to god visibilites were down to less than 2 miles and still no accumulation. the ground is just to warm.

  59. Looks like the original forecast is holding up well. The tweak wasn’t even needed for some areas.

    1. My bet is if this was mid-winter with the same setup there would have been widespread sticking snows albeit on the very light side of amounts. Ocean and ground temps still too warm in November.

      1. Exaclty. Its tough to get snow to accumulate with temps above freezing. To me this time of year it has to come down really hard during the daylight hours to stick to the roads like we saw back on the 7th of the month.

  60. We are up to 121 comments for this “so called” storm. I can’t wait until we have something to get really excited about 🙂

  61. Yes, TK forecast held up well. I am sure the NWS will find some spotter reports at elevations above 800 feet to say their 2-4″ forecast verified……But for where most people live in urban and suburban inland locations and coastal areas, yes the forecast did just fine.

    For a storm to work here at this time of year we need colder air in place. Marginal temps won’t do it. Sun angle is actually very low, so that is not the issue. Just need colder air at the surface. Widespread temps around 30 as opposed to 33-40 like we had today.

  62. Scott I thought of you when I read NE weather works comment on FB. It cracked me that it was geared towards Lydon State students. So sensitive their comment was.

    1. They were only 3-6″ off, could have been worse 🙂
      I wonder when their fan base will realize that New England Weather Works is a complete joke…

  63. If this had fallen in mid jan we would have received around 3 inches but with temps just to warm we received only coatings in colder and shadier areas, probably be gone by morning, good night 😉

    1. It never really accumulated on any roads around here,, which is good! Looks like temps around 50 next week for highs, again goodnight 🙂

  64. Wow – am I the first one here? Is everyone else out shoveling??? I guess I finished my shoveling early 😉

    1. Did you get that “3-6” out of the way? 😉

      Good morning Vicki. Head over to the new blog update. You can be the first one there too!

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