November To End Cold & Dry

137 Comments

8:42AM

It sounds like a rerun but the overall chilly/dry pattern of November will maintain itself right through the last few days of the month and into the first hours of December before moderation takes place for the early days of the new month.

The mostly non-storm (except some bands of moderate snow and accumulation in parts of far southern New England) is in a doddle just offshore but will pull away later today, allowing high pressure to build in for Thursday. A cold front will cross the region from northwest to southeast Thursday night, reinforcing the cold air for Friday.

As December starts, Saturday & Sunday will feature the approach and passage of a warm front which will bring clouds and eventually moderating temperatures. But with lots of dry air around and not a tremendous moisture punch with the front, precipitation will be scarce at best, and for now is being excluded from the forecast which follows this discussion.

Looking ahead into early next week, following the guidance of the European computer model which shows a bit more up and down temperature swings versus a mild spell. It still looks like a dry pattern even with the swings.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated light snow and rain showers. Highs 36-41. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of a snow shower reaching portions of southern NH and northeastern MA. Lows 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 33-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 22. High 39.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 36. High 49.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 44.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 50.

137 thoughts on “November To End Cold & Dry”

    1. For most areas this thing was doomed as a winter weather event before it ever had a chance. Clearly overdone precipitation on the models toward the end. Never bought into it.

      1. I didn’t either. Everything was not coming together for this one for a few days. It is chilly with the breeze this morning.

      2. TK, were the models overdone, or was it a function of warm surface/ground temps too warm and the time of year? I feel like if this were jan we would have have that 1-3″

        2. If this was January, temps probably would have been 5-10 degrees colder overall and mostly snow throughout SNE…albeit very light amounts.

  2. Thanks TK! Saw some flakes in Plymouth yesterday but was rain for the most part. Still hoping for a white Christmas though. 🙂

    1. In this type of pattern (even with the interruption in it next week) the frequency of light snow events goes up through December so there is hope. Barring a renegade storm of some kind, it would not be likely you’d have a deep snowcover by Christmas but it’s very possible that a series of light events will get the ground white. That’s actually my favorite type of pattern – lots of small and easy snowfalls, and a few squalls thrown in on reinforcing cold fronts. 🙂

      1. I’d be completely satisfied with a light coating. There is just something about Christmas lights combined with the snow that makes the holidays more joyful for me.

      3. The only problem is the light event needs to come through the day before or an inch or 2 on 23rd chances r it’s gone by 25th 🙂

  3. Aww darn work got in the way and I wasn’t first here, TK 🙁 Thanks for the update and the 6-9 in framingham (remember Coastal has wished for the lions share to fall in Framingham this winter) have been shoveled and we have built several forts at the end of the driveway 🙂

  4. Well it seems the snow just does not melt here at Lyndon, we’ve had an inch on the ground for the past 3 days. Expecting a burst of snow tomorrow evening for the north country, putting down a couple inches at best. May not make it to 20 for a high on Friday.
    Then the SW flow takes over, and all the snow will melt 🙁

    2. the mountains of vermont are known to have those light snow showers for days on out and then by the time it ends there are a few inches of snow on the ground it stays cold up there the snow stays and the light snow has an easier time to accumulate. Its why stowe vermont gets so much powder.

  6. been a constant flurry extremely light snow here. for most of the morning. and still going. just not accumulation since its so light and the ground is warm. same as yesterday constant light to moderate snow but no accumulation.

  7. My side street in Dorchester was salted overnight…was this necessary? I have no problem erring on the side of caution, but at the same time, I don’t like resources wasted. Winter hasn’t really got going yet.

    1. There was threat of black ice from wet ground and a temperature just below freezing. Some areas were indeed a bit slick.

    2. Philip being in that line of work somtimes you can’t win. I think airing on the side of caution is the best thing.

  9. Thanks, TK!
    We got some light-moderate snow showers this morning but now in Sudbury the skies are brightening. Did anybody watch WBZ at noon today showing the video of a waterspout in Italy that got onto land and turned into quite a tornado? They say it’s weird to have a tornado in Italy – but as we know, a tornado can occur anywhere – except the Antarctica, I think. Anyway, I am hoping for a white Christmas. Some fresh snow on the ground but not bad enough to affect traffic and stuff. We don’t do any decorating until Dec. 1st. We will be leaving soon for the Christmas Tree Shop and look around, ‘though I think we will stick w/what we already have.

    2. I didn’t see that – do you remember where in Italy? rainshine I hope everyone in your family is improving!!

      1. Vicki – see my post below re: the tornado in Italy. My mother is better and my husband got his results back. Everything is ok except the dr. wants to talk to him about his prolactin levels. Marc has had a pituatory tumor since 1984. Thanks for asking!

  10. Will be tied up at training sessions the next few days.
    Will probably be away from blog for a bit.

    Have a great Day all! 😀

    2. I am glad they coordinated your training during a lull in our weather. Not sure we could let you go if there was something brewin’! 🙂

  11. Thanks Old Salty. Back to the boring weather regime after the nusiance event yesterday. It looks like we got an inside runner in about a week giving us rain and not snow.

  12. That sure is some cold air on the 10th day of the 12z EURO run just north of the northern Plains, in southern Canada. Lets see if subsequent EURO runs show any consistency towards it.

  13. Looks like a cloudy streatch. for next week but first. 40s thursday then 30s on friday clipper system moves through friday night and saturday giving us some light snow or rain? then a 20 degree warm up for sunday which will be in the high 40s or low 50s and low 50s through all of next week. with clouds with a series of fronts? someone said this was one of the more sunniest novembers we had. good going look what you done 😛

      1. I think chilly is relative. I would have said a sunny comfy November 🙂

        Today was mid 30 but it was the first raw day we’ve had. I wore a jacket for the first time when I sat on the deck while Mac cooked on the grill

        1. Just speaking relative to climate normals. Boston is running nearly -2.5 deg F on the temp. 🙂

          1. If it goes on 30 yr Data I’d say the warmth of the past decade has skewed the average. I have yet to figure why it records below average but this is far from any November pre 21st century.

            1. I don’t mean to be a pain or stubborn but it just isn’t gelling with what I remember. Even both my girls who do not like winter look at me as if I’m nuts when I say nov has been below normal. Especially my oldest who spent every day for well over a decade in the barn with her horses

              1. Checking back on my obs taken from here since 1-1-78, this November is one of the chillier ones I’ve had.

                2. Hmmmm. Odd. As I said previously our porch until early 2000s was always at a consistent temp just below 40 so we could keep food out there. We haven’t been able to for about 6 or so years. That’s one of the things that confuses me. Also mac said he’s only scraped his windows 3 times so far. Oh well there has to b some explanation. Maybe a few cold with a stretch of warmer so temps are not consistent

                3. TK – thank you for checking back in your data 🙂 Pretty cool you have been that consistent keeping a personal file

  14. The “warm” days look like Sunday, Tuesday & Wednesday. There will be a chilly shot (minor) on Monday that most people will miss for a couple more days. A legit cold shot comes late next week. The overall pattern is still dry and I don’t see any change in that.

    1. Rainshine thank you very much. Mac was very interested. He could pick up a few words. He spoke fluent Italian when he lived in Rome but has lost almost all of it. What a fascinating video. It was huge.

  16. Dawson, Canada…just east of Alaska in far northwest Canada….an area where arctic airmasses tend to form the first half of winter….is currently…..

    -42F !!!!

  19. My husbands cousin is visiting from Seattle and said they have had more rain than normal this year. I was surprised. Does anyone know if that is the only area above normal

    1. Not sure but Northern California is getting 6-12 inches of rain in the next 5 days! Looking at the water vapor it was impressive to see 3 streams of moisture coming together! This one is not as impressive, but still looks pretty cool!

      http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/wv.jpg

      The two storms in the gulf of Alaska are rotating around each other (Fujiwhara effect).

      1. I saw those storms North – thanks for the link. My cousin-in-law said they had some serious erosion on their property and her brother-in-law had a lot of flooding. I haven’t checked the rest of the country but I think there are more dry spots than wet although may be very wrong.

    1. Yes, they have been getting these storms one after another. Glad is not us getting all that rain. If it was snow that would be acceptable :).

        1. I don’t think they named it, but it sounds like it fits their criteria since it will impact a large amount of people with high impacts.

  22. I hate to keep beating a dead horse but Logan is now at -8.91″. It won’t be long until we get to double digits below normal. 🙁

  23. I can only remember it snowing in greater Boston on Christmas day once in my lifetime once. It would have been 1973 or 1974? I think I’m remembering this correctly. I eas in early grade school. Natick got several inches of snow. More often than not its always seemed to me those middle weeks of December are mild rainy ones with the Christmas week often being quite mild. It has often seemed that “real snow” starts that week after the holidays…….

    1. We had snow in the air last Christmas morning. 🙂

      My brother tells me of a time in the early 1970s that he woke up on Christmas morning to Charles Laquidara on WBCN FM saying something like “If you haven’t been up yet, get up, walk over to your window, and look outside…” as several inches of fluff was in the process of piling up outside.

  24. 2 days to meteorological winter, 10 days to the earliest sunset, 3 weeks or so to the solstice to start getting some daylight back, ?????? to an appreciable, local snowfall…..

  25. To Vicki: I was thinking about what you said about your porch and I have a theory. Has there been a change in the tree line enough to impact the amount of time sunlight reaches your porch during the daylight hours? I’m wondering if a difference of just a portion of an hour of direct sun reaching near or to the porch may be having an impact. This may be more of an issue in the late Autumn due to the low sun angle (greater interaction with trees on the nearby land, even without leaves, would be enough to have some impact). Just a theory as I don’t know the exact set up of the area.

    1. Hey TK you are very kind to take the time to think about it. I am really scratching my head. Your data is obviously correct so it will bug me until I figure out the reason. I tend to obsess on stuff I can’t figure out 🙂 The porch has only two walls exposed. Basically it faces NE to SE but the trees are much taller and there is a new one that totally blocks the porch on the most southern side. For the most part it gets very little sun. I did try last week leaving the pocket window down on the door at night but that only lowered the temp t 46/47. Until last year we had a glass storm door so I never had the option.

      I’m obsessive enough that I just printed down all november temps back to 1960 and am going to try to figure out if just the years we could use the porch were colder. Thank you very much for your input TK 🙂

      1. Let me know what you find out. There are so many “local” (I mean within a few hundred yards) things that can impact other things. For example, when my neighbors got UV blocking windows on the south side of their house, the siding on the north side of my house started to bubble. When we got UV blocking windows on the west side of our house, a couple patches of grass in frequent line of the window’s reflection of the sun turned brown.

    1. At least the first part of it, but this is no big surprise given the indications of the pattern per observed/predicted climate indices.

  27. Some snow showers for parts of SNE Saturday as a warm air aloft is moving in. You could tell its a boring pattern when snow showers are being made a big deal. Looks mild till mid week before another shot of cold air moves in late next week.

    1. West Coast trough – right on track with the winter outlook. The pattern is established. 🙂

      My goodness though, that is impressive. Going to share that on FB.

  29. I’m not bought into this major cold coming for mid dec, after this brief chilly spell it warms back up to the mid 50’s and for some maybe 60, yes then some cold air comes back but I think this is brief with mild mixed with chilly weather leading into Christmas, can’t believe it Dec this weekend, 3 weeks and the days slowly get longer 🙂

    1. I’m not seeing prolonged cold from here Charlie. Still think the overall pattern is chilly and dry but not extreme in terms of negative departures. November is in the -2.0 to -2.5 range, certainly chilly but not outrageously colder than normal. Don’t see huge changes in December at this point.

      2. you will. the dryness does not stick around all winter. Mid december things go down hill with cold and snow. snow before christmas.

  31. I believe its 0.4 inches with that coming on the 7th of the month. Of course there were other places in SNE that saw a lot more than that from that storm particularly in CT where some areas had a foot of snow.

  33. The last time it snowed on Christmas Day in Boston was in 1974. Logan received 3.3″.
    I remember it well. I was in my first year of high school and my grandmother bought me my first weatheradio as a Christmas gift. 🙂 I bought many of them over the years and still have one but haven’t listened to it in awhile. I got tired when they went automated with their forecasts. The days of an actual human voice is long gone unfortunately. 🙁

    Also if my memory is correct, the snow that Christmas Day 1974 was somewhat on the wet side with the temps maybe in the 28-34 range?

    1. I also got my first calculator on that Christmas 1974 as well. It had addition, subtraction, multiplication and division…WOW! 😀

      Those electronic items seem like a Model-T Ford by today’s standards but back then, you thought you had it made if you owned one. 🙂

      1. Thats a special memory Philip. It gave me a big smile

        We had considerable snow sometime in early 2000s on Christmas Day in framingham. Ill be darned if I can remember the year but we had dinner at my daughters future inlaws and even two miles away driving home was difficult. It could easily have just rained in Boston. As I remember we had not expected the accululation but it was beautiful to watch

  34. TK, didn’t the NWS move their office from Logan to Taunton sometime in the 1990’s and went automated shortly thereafter? 🙁

  35. The last time I remember it snowing on Christmas Day was back in 2002. If could have started a day sooner it would have been a white Christmas since snow would have been on the ground Christmas morning. Then back in 2010 we missed a white Christmas with the blizzard happening a day after Christmas.

    1. i remember the last time it snowed on christmas it made the roads to my grandparents unpassible i was not a happy little camper .lol

    2. Guess I should read all posts before I comment. I can’t believe it was 10 yrs ago. Ugh. Makes me feel old

  36. The latest 6-10/8-14 day CPC continutes to show above normal temps, however late in the period “normal” temps show up in the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes. This should be a sign of cold temps returning around or just after mid-month…maybe snow along with it eventually for the northeast as well? 😉

  37. Henry Margusity was mentioning the pattern shifts to cold mid month. Will see. This was the same person who tweeted cold and snow will return with a vegance in the east after Thanksgiving.

  38. This is sounding like last year 🙂 we kept saying the pattern is changing and it never occurred. So let’s see what happens.

    1. If we all play the little engine that could and wish really hard we can bring on the snow…..but I was thinking this conversation sounds eerily familiar

  40. I also believe cold will come in shots from about dec 10th on and should take hold by 12/17 lasting through Jan.

    1. Starting at 2:20 pm on Friday, Dec. 21st and for the next 11 days, it can be ice cold and snow as much as it wants. 🙂

    1. Ok. I’ll be doing site admin after 11PM tonight. I’m doing a giant decorating project. We go nuts for Christmas and this is a week-long project, to be finished tomorrow afternoon. 🙂

        1. Me too. I have most of indoors done but haven’t begun outside. Am waiting for tree since it seems to have dried too much the last few years. TK what is your project and have fun!!

          1. I think there are a lot of folks on this blog who still hear the bell. Wonder how the magic of Christmas and all holidays connect to the magic of weather.

            1. I still hear it Vicki! My mom still puts a bell in a box under the tree way in the back every year. Shes been doing it ever since I first read that book 🙂

              1. I just got goosebumps. On Christmas Eve my kids (grown) still ask me to read Night Before Christmas and then the Polar Express. I think a good part of my reading the polar express is for them to see how far I get before starting to cry. I haven’t made it to the end yet 🙂

      2. Tk please tell me they approved the Dave an busters for that eye soar in Woburn?? Thank you in advance 🙂

  43. Apparently Stowe, VT has gotten 7-12” of snow in the past 7 days. That brings them up to 26″ for the season so far. Not too shabby.

  44. well the outdoor decorations are all set up. tested and will be lit friday night. Do to the cold nights lately been able to make snow for the sleeding hill opening that for the kids on my street and thier freinds at 3pm good solid 3 inch base made snow again tonight not sure how much but should be another Inch (I make sure that i have at least a 3 inch base for safty reasons.) going to do one more blast of it just before i leave for biology class tomorrow. Told my neibors 3pm is when the hill will be set for them to use it. I love my new snow maker 😀 lights are lit at 5pm to 9pm…. this time it goes with music 🙂 first time doing this hopefully it works

  46. I will always hear the bell…

    The project is big. I live in a 2 family house in which my mom & dad reside. My mom is 80 and in the shape of someone in their 60s. My dad is nearing 90 and his mind isn’t what it once was but he’s in good shape otherwise! Anyway, between the 2 apartments there are near 20 rooms, each get at least something in them (lights in the window at minimum) and many get the deluxe style decorations that have been acquired since the 1950s. The majority of the decorations are downstairs, but there are 3 full floors on this house so you can see how much work it turns out to be, and then also there is the issue of decorating outside, which is not overly-done as I am transition from when my dad used to do most of it to now it being left up to mainly me. I am in the process of replacing most if not all of the stuff (mostly mini lights for bushes and extension cords and accessories).

    About to get caught up on site admin and then I will update either overnight or first thing tomorrow morning.

    1. Sounds like you have your work cut out for you each year but nice for your whole family to enjoy when you are done!

      1. Everything is organized and labeled except some of the extra sets my dad worked on and used as spare parts (he is a retired electronics tech and repaired our Christmas lights for years which is why we infrequently bought anything new). I’m not gifted with such ability so I do it the easier way. 😉

        Matt, you’ll probably see a few pics posted on FB in the days ahead of some of the inside old classic decorations. 🙂

    3. Well apparently the Polar Express isn’t the only thing I can’t get through reading without tears. What a wonderful home you live in TK —- How special for you, your family and for your mom and dad!!! I could literally feel the love in your post 🙂

      1. I’m the luckiest person in the world Vicki. This place may be older and need some patching up now and again, but my father remodeled most of the house (inside and out) by himself during the years after my aunt/uncle and their family moved out of the upstairs apartment and we took it (a couple of my brothers lived up here before I did). I love the city I live in and being on the 2nd floor and mainly in this room with 5 windows that face 3 directions (north, west, and south) and a short walk to a big window that faces east, I am basically in an observation tower.

        Ok. I’ll quit babbling here and say the blog is updated! See you there!

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