Weekend Update

76 Comments

3:11AM

Warm front slowly pushing northeastward will finally win out and the mild air will continue to scour out the cold and melt the newly fallen light snow during the day today.

Very weak cold front crosses the region tonight with a band of rain showers, followed by fair weather but only a tiny cool-down Monday as a small bubble of high pressure visits.

A stronger cold front approaches from the west Tuesday with a very mild push of air ahead of it, then passes through Wednesday with rain showers possibly ending as snow showers.

High pressure brings fair and chilly weather for the end of the coming work week.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Early morning patches of fog, drizzle and pockets of freezing drizzle with a few icy spots remaining. Highs 52-57. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers crossing the region west to east. Lows 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy east coastal areas and Cape Cod early, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 49-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers AM. Partly cloudy with snow showers PM. Low 46. High 50 early then falling.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

76 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  1. Still not agreeing with CPC’s 6-10 & 8-14.

    6-10 should read near to below normal precip and near to above normal temps.
    8-14 should read below normal precip and near to below normal temps.

  2. Thanks TK. Sill only around 34 this morning. Can’t wait for the mid 50’s this afternoon. Go Pats and clinch the AFC east!

  3. TK not surprised to see the euro show an inland storm. I still think we get going around Christmas just like 2 years ago.

  4. Still 33 here. Everything looks very pretty. This is the kind of,snow that’s perfects for Christmas Day – minus the freeze at night of course. Snow all day, little accumulation and looks just lovely

  5. My friend/colleague from Bristol RI posted a few things via Twitter/FB that I wanted to share. It’s local climate info from the decade he has lived there, so granted it’s not Boston’s period of record but it is still interesting. (Tom you know who I am talking about). 🙂

    November 2011 (last year) was the warmest he’s recorded.
    November 2012 (this year) was the coldest at over 3F below normal.

    The year 2012 was his driest and he noted that in order to get back to normal precipitation for the year, he’d need to record over 10 inches of melted in December.

    He also noted to me that November ended up significant colder than normal despite a mild stretch mid month, and that looking down the road at what he expects heading through mid and late December, the mild stretch this week will probably not weigh that much. Both he and I expect December to average colder than normal but also dry.

    1. Yes….You are both inspiring me to start keeping weather records for Marshfield. Something to do once I’m retired. 🙂

      2. I agree Tom. I’ve been thinking the same. And have to cry uncle as reviewing nov back to 1960 this one was not as warm as my mind thought. I’m still trying to figure the porch temp but its moot at this point. I want to check nov 1992 and see if it was as cold as I remember. If not I may be ready for memory overhaul 🙂

        1. Hi Vicki. I think I know what u mean about not feeling like its been as cold as past novembers. While this nov finished below normal temps, there weren’t a lot of anomolous days that were well below normal. We were consistently at or just below. It feels like past novembers have had more days of well below normal with a larger snow event thrown in there, making it appear as though the month was colder and snowier as a whole even though the month was probably closer to normal.

          1. Thanks AceMaster. That’s exactly how it felt although the data def showed colder. I like your explanation.

  6. I am not discrediting anyone, just curious as to how much meteorology background everyone has. I took a couple college meteorology when studying for my turf degree, but the focus was more on weather’s impact on growing conditions and forecasting for them, not on general weather forecasting. Does anyone here have formal education in meteorology? It seems everybody on here has great knowledge of reading models, formulating predicitions and the like, just curious how it came to be.

    2. I’m a 1990 U Lowell (just before it became UMass Lowell) graduate with nearly 2 decades experience in the private sector where I became a senior meteorologist with an emphasis on agricultural weather. I was forecasting weather for agricultural areas and energy consumption in the USA, Canada, Mexico, Central America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, & Australia, as well as marine weather for shipping in all the major shipping areas for a client that saw over 250,000 views per day. Talk about an audience. I’m glad it wasn’t live TV or radio! Also tracked tropical cyclones in every basin in the world in both the N & S hemisphere.

      I did do radio in college for WLLH (AM station for Lowell Lawrence Haverhill) and I did a live feed for a national radio broadcast one late night during a lunar eclipse (to detail which areas would have the best view, etc.). That came about because I was working until 2AM one Monday night and nobody else in the place wanted to do it. 😉

    3. Nick good questions. I often wonder how everyone here has such extensive knowledge. It is literally awesome.

      TK I don’t think I knew all that. What a great and varied background.

      1. One of my brothers (the 2nd oldest of 5 boys) was the one who was going to be the “weatherman” but when I started looking at the books he’d get out of the library it was I who became hooked at age 5 or 6 and shortly after that was a complete weather nut. The rest, as they say, is history.

        And in case you were wondering I am the youngest after a 6 year break after boy #4. 😉 Better late than never!

        1. As a mom i have one thing to say…….God bless your mother. Five sons!!! Seriously, however, if you are an example of her sons, she did a great job 🙂

          Amazing how we get hooked on weather but I suspect most of us can trace it to its origin

    4. I’m now a math teacher….went to Lyndon State College….got some of the way thru the Met Program….took and passed met courses such as Thermodynamics and atmospheric motion…….and have always had a passion for the weather since being a kid.

    5. No Met degree. I have a degree in Math with a minor in Physics from
      Northeastern University. I did take a course in Climatology and another in thermodynamics. During my last few years at NU I had a COOP job with
      Air Force Cambridge Research Labs stationed at their Weather Radar Research site at the Natick Army Labs annex in Sudbury/Stowe/Maynard. I assisted and worked with research meteorologists specializing in thunderstorm wind damage. My name is attached to several research papers. That was the coolest job imaginable! Just coming in in the morning and turning on the radar equipment was priceless.

      Since then I have been a complete weather NUT! 😀

    6. Wow! That was great background info, I always wondered who everybody is behind their user names, that was awesome! As far as I go, I graduated from Penn State with a degree in Turf Management, concentration in Golf Course Management. Within the program, I took a couple 100 and 200 level classes in meteorology and forecasting, but nothing in depth like some on here. But a true weather junkie and must say a snow lover at heart, but enjoy watching weather unfold regardless of the precip type.

      1. One of my former coworkers used to joke but was also half serious about considering going into Turf Management.

        1. Tough industry to be in the last few years. Very cut throat, one day your in next your out. Like life, you have to love what you do in order to be the best.

          2. Tough people to deal with on occasion also. I know from Jason there are some serious politics especially at the private clubs.

  7. Its almost downright springlike outside. Temp approaching 50F, a bit of sun peaking out from time to time and the chill of the last many days is gone.

  9. 0Z Euro for 7Pm 12/9:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif

    0Z Euro NAO predictions:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zecmwfnao.gif

    2012120200z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: 43.2308578
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: 110.835571
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: 45.874279
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: 25.6823425
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: -1.03383863
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: -75.2893677
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -110.343124
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -82.0275269
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: -35.79459
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: 14.4487495
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: 16.6487789
    NAO value for Day 1-5: 21.2137966

    This simply, does not look good. So we have to wait now until at least after 12/12!

    Beginning to look like last year. The cold is coming, the cold is coming. NOT!
    😀 😀

      1. hahaha – never fear – we are home for the game. We went from Mt Auburn cemetery [where we couldn’t find my aunts/uncles/cousins grave to place their wreath because my husband took a “short cut” from my family gravesite (same cemetery) and then insisted they had moved and not left a forwarding address] to Formaggio Kitchen on Huron Ave Cambridge for gift certs son’s GF for Christmas (if anyone lives nearby and enjoys cheese I’d HIGHLY RECOMMEND) through Concord to Framingham and the cheese tray is all set for the game!!

  11. Hey everyone…I am actually going to run that science club and I was wondering if anyone had any weather-related ideas for kids to do; I have grades 3 and 4 so that’s ages 8-10 maybe; 13 kids (so I want one more….). I have my own ideas, but a lot of times with teaching, people have fond memories or something that they think is way-cool that I just haven’t thought about. It doesn’t have to be weather related, actually. I’ll be talking with the kids to get their ideas as well. I’m thinking of structuring it–a little weather chat, a project/problem for them to figure out using a particular concept and then a wee bit of indoor gardening. I thought that it would be very cool to look at the models and see if we can find something brewing. The club is going to run from now until Feb vacation, and maybe start up again, depending on how it goes. Thanks for your help–all suggestions will be appreciated.

    3. I have 3 great books. one is
      Discoveries Weather by David Ellyard ( weather consultant) can find it in Barnes and Noble
      HOW THE WEATHER WORKS by Micheael Allaby… get a hold of this your set for cheap but fun projects. as well as a cloudy atlas and ways to forcast just by looking at the sky
      then a Google book.
      e.guides Earth written by Matt Turner . This has alot of great information about weather patterns, biomes and natrual disasters http://www.earth.dke-guides.com

  12. Graduated from the school of hard knocks in 1994. I recieved my masters in education from the Massachusetts State Correctional Department in 2002, 5 year course with perfect attendance. I also have a certificate for photovoltaic system design and sustainable energy. I became interested in weather as a young child.

  13. I took a weather course during the summer when I was young. I became interested in weather right after the 93 Superstorm. I remember that day very well. It was a Saturday in March and the snow was up to my knee caps. I was 8 years old at the time. I have learned a lot about weather also from reading books and from the people on this blog. I love tracking snowstorms and thunderstorms.

  14. I have a degree in hospitality mgt from BU. I took some met classes at school in Denver which is where I started college but never finished. I am nothing more than an armchair meterologist. Though I have done a lot of research of mine own to educate myself about weather. I currently work in sales for a travel company and love it.

  15. I am currently a freshman at Lyndon State College, trying to attain a B.S. in meteorology. My giant passion of weather has helped me gain a lot of knowledge before even starting college.

    The snow is melting quickly up here, don’t think there will be much left by tomorrow morning.

  16. Hadi has it right – just an armchair weather geek here as well. I’m a business guy – 20 years. MBA in finance and marketing is my training – totally boring compared to observing weather, climate & geography.

    What’d I’d do to swap with Scott! (only if I could take my family with me!)

  17. I have absolutely no education in meteorology, Nick, but am fascinated. While retrac and Hadi,IMHO are being modest, I really am an armchair met……or maybe an armchair observer is better. I work with a financial consultant. Our expertise is working with banks/credit unions for strategic planning, business process design, technology selection, and association presentations

    How well do you know Jason V. Was going to have son – Scott – say hi

    1. I know Jason through sales reps and have talked a bit over the last couple of years. He would only know me as he super from quail, but definitely have him pass along a hello to him and his growing family.

  18. My degrees are in biochemistry but im a nut for all the physical sciences. Did take a met class in college but not much content as i think a 5th grader could have gotten an A, lol. Like JJ, i became interested in weather at a young age in the 90’s. Going on family trips skiing up north every year, i was always interested in why certain years more snow. Of course, the ’96/’96 winter is what did it for me. The snowbanks were all the way up to the roof of the condo. I have tried to educate myself on the technical aspects of weather but the things I’ve learned from others on this blog in the past year have been nothing short of exceptional. 🙂

    1. Is biochemistry a difficult field to break into? My nieces boyfriend has a degree in evolutionary bio, is very bright and dedicated and can’t find a job anywhere. Maybe it’s just the economy.??

  19. I remember that winter of 95-96 very well. There was still accumulating snow in April. Of course the big one was in January when a blizzard dumped a good amount of snow on the big cities of the Northeast. Philadelphia had close to 30 inches of snow with that storm system.

  20. 12Z Euro at 216 Hours:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif

    12Z Euro predicted NAO:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zecmwfnao.gif

    2012120212z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: 92.2642212
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: 91.868576
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: 25.9476814
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: 26.7501984
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: -22.7055244
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: -80.6189651
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -137.06723
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -141.57959
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: -140.172119
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: -118.713478
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: -175.558914

    What a difference 12 hours makes! 😀

  21. that april fools day storm was so great wasn’t it. how I wish for another. The most memorable part of that storm for me was the amount of thunder and lighting with the storm. I think I remember measuring like 33 inches or so. The car was just a white hump in the driveway.

    1. april fools storm sure was memorable. Im trying to think of the others that were most memorable for me. Maybe starting with the 1969 three day February storm if I have month/date correct, then feb 1978 of course, and dec 9 1978, 93 superstorm, April fools storm, and the dec 9 big storm maybe in 2005?, and late march 1984. Most of those we lost power which as you know is one of my criteria :). Oh our most recent Halloween storm.

    2. That storm was awesome!! 25 inches here.

      There were Mets that called that one, although perhaps not the
      total amounts. 😀

  22. I loved the April Fools Storm since I was able to stay up late and watch the men’s NCAA Championship game between Kentucky and Arizona since school was called off the next day. It was an excellent game with Arizona beating Kentucky in overtime. If it were not for Arizona winning Kentucky would have won 3 straight national championships.
    My most memorable ones are 93 Superstorm, 96 blizzard, 97 April Fools Storm, 2003 Presidents’ Day Storm, and the Prehalloween Noreaster of 2011.

  23. Hi, Nick – I have no meteorological training. I have been in the administrative field most of my life. After graduating high school I went to Chandler School (2 yr. secretarial school) and immediately after graduating, I got a job at Natick Laboratories in Natick and worked there for 10 yrs., then moving on to the private sector. I really can’t remember exactly when I fell in love with the weather – I think it was Hurricane Carol, Edna or Diane. I was only 5 yrs. old and we lived in Quincy and I remember getting up and seeing our whole yard flooded. But I have a passion for the weather, whether it be storm or fair weather.

    We just got back from a beautiful Christmas concert in Wellesley. Lots of moths out tonight.

    1. Rainshine we seem to have developed out love for weather about the same time. I can’t remember which of those hurricanes it was either but do remember the ocean on our kitchen floor and being fascinated. You’d think I’d be scared. I have to go back but didnt OS say he was at natick labs? And I can’t remember if we were in school same time. I graduated from Gibbs in 69

      1. Vicki, we lived in the Furnace Book area of Quincy and our yard was all flooded. They had to take some people out on boats. A year or two later we moved to Holbrook and one of our neighbors told me tornadoes come out a clear sky! I couldn’t believe that so I looked it up. So many ways I fell in love with the weather! I graduated Chandler School in 1971. Natick Labs had other labs and offices in other areas. I was at Kansas St. at Natick Labs from 1971 – 1979.

        OS – did you ever go to Natick Labs in Natick?

          1. Bill would have been there about the time you were rainshine. And the moths are gross. We can’t leave our front light on because they come in the house if we open the door.

            Wow you’d think people taken out on boats would scare you too. Or tornadoes dropping from the sky. Amazing what we find fascinating as kids

            1. Your husband’s cousin’s name sounds a bit familiar, but I’m not sure.

              I wasn’t scared about the weather either – like you, I was fascinated. In Jr. High School I did an extra-credit report in Earth Science on Tornadoes and got an A+. Too bad I never did good enough in math – then maybe I could have been a meteorologist!

    2. rainshine, i was just about to comment on the moths. I just came home and my front door is covered with them, gross!

      2. I was too. I sat outside while my husband grilled and all you could see were the moths flying around. It is a gorgeous night

      3. Up until a few yrs. ago, I don’t remember seeing moths at this time of year. I agree with you, AceMaster – too many moths and they are gross! 🙂

        1. The moths have been in North America since around 1950, but only in recent years has the wave of them moved northwestward from Cape Cod & SE MA through MetroWest.

          1. Thanks for the info., TK. I know other insects have done the same type of thing in other parts of the country. In any case, I will be glad when the moths are gone until the summer!

  24. Barry on his evening blog mentions that he is basing his long range forecast on the analog of 2003-04. Boston received 35.1″ for that winter season…cold and somewhat dry.

    1. One of my analogs too for my forecast. 2003-2004, 2009-2010 are the 2 that most fit the overall pattern. This is the reason for my 39.3 for Boston.

      I will be seeing Barry on Wednesday and I’m sure we’ll chat a bit about the long range. 🙂

  25. That winter had a big noreaster in the early part of December followed by a real cold January. Boston I believe got down -7 for a low temperature during that month.

  26. Nick…I’m in the Witness Protection Program…can’t say anymore

    😉

    Seriously…just a weather nut here and have been since I was about 10. Always used to draw weather maps etc. My love of the weather is only surpassed by my current hobby of Radio and TV long distance listening. I’m not a HAM operator but I dx (long distance reception) all bands–LW, AM, HF, FM, VHF, etc….I’ve been into that hobby for almost 20 years. I’ve logged over 900 AM stations from all over (North America, South America, Europe, Africa and the Middle East. I’ve also logged over 1800 FM Stations from North America. The DX hobby goes hand in hand with the weather as weather conditions can often dictate (but entirely) conditions on the different bands.

Comments are closed.