Quick Update – More Of The Same

115 Comments

4:45PM

Apologize for the lack of update since Sunday evening.

Other than a cloudier, cooler day today than I had forecast, there are no real surprises, and the pattern we are in now will continue through the forecast period in southern New England. This pattern was described in the previous post but is basically a milder pattern with a low pressure track north and west of New England and only brief shots of chilly air from time to time. One such chilly shot will occur Thursday. A more extended unsettled period will get underway this weekend into early next week but at this time I am still not expecting a tremendous amount of precipitation as the overall pattern remains a dry one.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers late. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers in the morning. Highs 50-55 in the morning then  falling through the 40s in the afternoon. Wind shifting to NW 10-15 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 46.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with episodes of rain showers. Possible break with partly sunny conditions Sunday. Overnight lows upper 30s to lower 40s. Daytime highs upper 40s to lower 50s. Sunday may be slightly cooler.

115 thoughts on “Quick Update – More Of The Same”

  1. TK, thanks for the update. Lot of rain your forecast. Could you possibly convert some of it to snow?

  5. It did coastal. I think we’re all waiting for the euro to show the same thing. Until then its just a potential dissappointment.

  6. From the NWS In Taunton
    DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL SET UP WILL
    EFFECT TEMPS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS…ENOUGH COOL AIR WILL
    GET INTO SOUTHERN NH AND EVEN WESTERN MASS FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
    ACCUMS TO OCCUR. HOWEVER THIS IS ALONG WAY OFF AND THERE ARE STILL
    A LOT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY THAT NEED TO BE WORKED OUT

  7. Temps going up this evening, even dewpoints in the low 50s……

    Brett Anderson, from Accuweather, on occasion mentions Mauna Loa, the volcanic mountain in Hawaii and its CO2 measurements. I was curious, so googled and found their site. Anyhow, here’s some info for CO2 (given in ppm…parts per million). Evidently, the measurements began in 1958

    1958 : around 315 ppm
    1978 : (picked this yr cause of blizzard) : around 335 ppm
    1995 : picked this yr, as midway btwn 1978 and 2012 : around 361 ppm
    2012 (October, specifically) : 391 ppm

    Read a few scientific papers I found online and it seemed the scientific community thinks that an acceptable level would be 350 ppm and that getting further from this number is less and less desirable.

    Anyhow, I fully admit to not having enough background to fully understand all of this, but found it interesting nonetheless.

    1. Ok tom you have macs and my attention. Are the readings limited to just around the volcano? I will have to look tomorrow to see the significance. Mac thought it had increased very little in that time period but his chemical background doesn’t extend to that area. Thank you for posting. I have a fun focus for tomorrow.

      1. I’m sure there must be other locations in the world where the CO2 in the atmosphere is measured……so, thanks for that….I’ll be googling that next !

      2. It seems there are at least 5 NOAA stations measuring….

        Mauna Loa ; Barrow, AK ; Trinidad Head, CA ; Tutuila American Samoa ; and the South Pole.

      3. The neatest thing I learned in all this, while the trend is upward, within a given year, the lowest readings are during the summer because all the vegetation is converting some of the CO2 in the atmosphere and obviously, during winter, when vegetation is least, the CO2 level is near a max.

    1. From a precip producing standpoint, its just difficult to believe…..of course, I suppose a fairly long, dry period of several months with below normal precip doesnt mean a big precip maker cant come along.

  9. It is temporary.

    There are lots of days with shower threats, but not alot of rain will fall.

    December will still likely end up near to below normal for temps when it’s all over.

    1. Back to November’s pattern. Chilly & dry.

      I’m going to be with Barry Burbank tomorrow afternoon so I’m sure we’ll have a chat about the current and upcoming pattern.

          1. What is considered chilly for november TK. There were 12 days in November at 50 or above. Three were over 60. That’s nearly 50%. To be fair I have a wayyyyy different definition of chilly than what my husband terms normal 😀

            1. Boston was 2.5F below normal. That is chilly. Most of the days during the month averaged below the daily normal.

              Of course that’s statistically.

              Everybody has their own guage on it depending on how it feels to you.

      2. Nice TK. I have always thought of Barry as one of the best. I used to hate that he was on weekends back in the late 80’s and loved it when he was on weekdays in the late 90’s/early 2000’s.

  11. Maybe it’s just me but it seemed when I was a kid (early 70’s) that it had been “winter” for a while by the time X-mas rolled around. We could ice skate outside, sledding etc
    Does anybody else remember this? or maybe just my own childhood weather memories……

    1. I have photos and slides going back into the late 1950s from this neighborhood and it hasn’t changed much at all. Our minds tend to pick out specific events from childhood and morph them into “it was almost always this way”. I ran into the same issue and was proven wrong when I saw all the pics.

    2. I do as well I’ve been saying that for a while. Driving everyone crazy I’m sure TK maybe here I remember differently however as I said we went skiing every year between Christmas and New Years and there was always snow. I have albums of pictures And there were no snow machines. Do you think there will be snow without snowmaking north of here by Christmas ?

      2. There will be some, but probably not prolific. Not because it will be warm, but because it will be dry.

          1. I was thinking. BTW those words from me drive mac into hiding. If its cold enough at least the ski areas can make snow. Good news either way!!

      3. Vicki, as a kid, my family and i used to go skiing every year between Xmas and New Years and then again for the week in feb. Even in the 90s I never remember much natural snow for the Xmas week but always tons for the week in feb. We were in southern VT so there may have been more further north though. I always remember my dad saying as we’re driving up how when he was a kid driving up to Cannon every weekend the snow was piled so high along the highway and he didn’t see that hardly anymore.

          1. Were u part of a ski club? My grandparents were part of the Attleboro ski club and took my dad and aunt up there every weekend. The place they stayed I think was in or near North Conway too.

            1. What years would that be Ace?? I wonder if my dad and your grandparents knew each other.

              My dad was (among other things) a ski instructor. He taught with Hans Schneider. He competed on Mt. Washington regularly including with Tony Matt. I’ve said this before but was one of my dad’s fondest memories. He was standing beside Matt when he caught an edge and went down Tuckerman straight. He denied catching an edge and said he did it on purpose but later admitted he did catch the edge 🙂

              1. Vicki, heres a link to the club http://www.attleboroskiclub.org/theclub.html

                I think this is the one but I would have to ask my aunt for sure. My dad was born in ’48 and i could swear he was part of the club as a very young kid and this one wasnt est. till ’59. Thats so cool that ur dad was an instructor. Catching an edge on Tuckerman’s must be freightening! Ive always wanted to ski it though ever since my dad told me stories of when he did. Such nice memories 🙂

  12. TK, u must be tired of having to keep saying its going to be dry. I think none of us, myself included, want to admit that until its all said and done. When winter is over with below normal snowfall and drought condition concerns going into the spring and summer. I really hope ur wrong, but so far, you’ve been spot on.

    2. Well the first crack in the armor came in this milder stretch that is a little more extensive than I expected at first. But there is a big difference between last year at this time and this year. Siberian snow cover & Canadian cold. Both of them are much more present this year. We are just in a situation right now where we can’t deliver the cold in more than short-lived bursts and the SE ridge is built enough to send lows NW of the area putting us into the warm sector with each passage. This is not the same pattern as last December.

      The dryness speaks for itself. Precip deficits run 6-8 inches in much of eastern MA.

      1. It has been different so far from last year. Didn’t feel cold by this point on too many days last year. I must admit I don’t mind the dry winter if it means less rain if it is not going to be cold enough for snow, but I do mind it if it means no snow!

  13. I also want to remind everyone that two years ago we were talking about how warm it was and then bam post Christmas blizzard an the rest of winter.

    1. True and then for 6 weeks it was 2-3 storms of varying intensity. I also remember the NAM being king in some of those storms in the short term forecasting. One storm I remember is the upper level low that came through WV and then through VA/MD and then blew up off the DE/NJ coast and dropped 10-15 inches in a short time in the overnight hours.

  15. Short notice, but if anybody would like to see Barry Burbank and you are around the area, he is speaking at Longwood Place in Reading MA tomorrow (Wed 12-5) at 4PM. I’ll be there. The public is invited.

    1. We were stuck in the chilly air much of the daytime as the front had a tough time pushing back through. Finally got it through this evening and it’s been warming up all night. About 10 degrees warmer at your place tonight than it was this afternoon.

  17. Its a stretch I know but the accuwether one month forecast looks a lot promising then it did yesterday. It actually shows snow on Christmas.

  18. The double high whammy returns…….

    In January, when we look back at December, Dec 4th, and now the 5th, will statistically show to have been very mild days because the warmest surge of air occurred literally in this case, around midnight of December 4th.

    1. I had yesterday off and was looking forward to a sunny, mild day to attack my last batch of leaves. Guess I will be on leaf duty sometime this weekend!

  19. 00z euro sure looks a little different. Has a Storm late in the run. Also has a low on the coast next week?

  20. UGH meter for the storm system early next week at a 5 since there is still sometime for things to change. I have a feeling that number maybe going up as we get closer to early next week.

    1. There was no hope for next weeks system anyways. I really wish we would throw the ugh meter in the trash. We sound like babies.

      1. I for one love the ugh meter – along with any new ones. It’s a concise way of say the system fell apart, etc.

  21. Thanks, TK.

    I don’t mind a cold winter – as it makes the warmth of spring nicer. But, this is my opinion, if we are going to have a cold winter, I’d like some snow. A light storm around Christmas and then at least one nor’easter in Feb. It would make the cold weather worthwhile. And although I prefer tracking thunderstorms, I still would like tracking a few winter storms. The mets. have put a little snow in the forecast for early nxt. wk. But I am going w/your forecast, TK with just showers.

  22. Jeremy Reiner ‏@jreineron7
    ..When the Greenland Block is West….cold/snow much more likely….still about 10-12 days away. PatienceGrasshopper
    Expand

    Jeremy Reiner Jeremy Reiner ‏@jreineron7
    Students of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)..your time is coming. Block starts E of Greenland (bad) then shifts W of Greenland (good)..

  23. 52 with a 45 dp here and gusty. Wind is around 6-9 mph. WE had a gust to 19.

    Between the time we started dinner last night (5ish) and finished (6ish) the front finally came through. It was noticeably warmer when we came out of the restaurant.

  26. It’s working OS. Looks negative again. Like I said yesterday the NAO flips flops more than a politician (Mitt R) 🙂

  28. Eric Fisher ‏@EricFisherTWC

    If I were to grade the snow outlook for the Northeast over the next 2 weeks, I would give it an F-. ADKS, highest elevations VT/NH/ME only.
    Retweeted by Todd Gutner

  29. I think we can clearly see a pattern change coming, just take a look at the 6z GFS ( i know) but it is for sure showing that change around mid month to Dec 2oth.

    1. Look at where the models have the cold air established. If you want some real cold, vote for the euro. If you want seasonable cold, vote for the GFS.

  31. Latest NAO forecast shows it really starting to tank as we head towards mid month. The AO is also negative the PNA remains in the negative territory.

  32. Hey AceMaster…. From what I understand the best setup for big east coast storms is a postive PNA which causes a ridge out in the west and a negative NAO which causes a trough in the east. There are other things that are needed one of which is a high to the north which funnels down the cold air, phasing of the northern and southern jet streams in time to develop a storm, and the track. Now if the low is strong enough it could manaufacture its own cold air like we saw with the pre halloween Noreaster in 2011.

    1. Gotcha, thanks JJ. Seems like a lot of factors have to come together just right to give us a big storm.

  33. 12Z GFS doesnt offer us much hope. Still keeps the storm next week well west of us. Far northern NE may get some snow out of that, but even that will be hard to come by with the warmth surging up the east coast. That secondary low the 00Z euro had shows up on this run too, but too far OTS to even give us a flurry.

  34. The PNA stands for Pacific North Atlantic Oscillation. This currently is in a negative phases which is causing all the stormy weather out in the west.
    Lets see what the 12Z EURO has to offer and if it develops a secondary low pressure to give a chance for wintry precipitation for parts of New England.

    1. Thank you JJ – I did some reading thanks to your post and now I am looking for a diagram of sorts so I could see what a negative phase means.

      1. A negative phase means of the PNA means stormy conditions out in the west which where all the weather action has been lately.

  35. Ace 12 Z doesn’t give us hope for next week, but plenty of hope in the long range..Take a look at 12/18 both the EURO and GFS show something even though timing is a little off.

    1. Ur right Hadi, i spoke before the run finished which i often do, lol. There is something showing up around that time frame. I looked back and u had posted an image of that same storm from yesterday’s 12Z GFS. That would be all snow 🙂

  37. Vicki, i posted some info about the ski club above in our convo from last night. Theres a good chance ur dad and my grandfather at least saw each other at some point 🙂

    1. I saw some and responded and just read your comment from this morning. I don’t think it was a huge group of regulars at that point in time and I’d be willing to bet they certainly saw each other – and maybe knew each other. My guess is as small a group as the regulars were, the number who regularly skied tuckerman was even smaller.

      1. If you are headed up the Mt Washington has a great deal through travelzoo – It’s either 129 or 169/night depending on what night you stay and it includes an all day ticket to Bretton Woods. My son has done this in the past and will again this year

  38. With respect to some of the comments above, it is good to have the -AO and -NAO because the cold supply is there, however when it is accompanied by a -PNA, my understanding is that it is harder to deliver the bulk of the cold air into the northeast. That is centered in the west.

    Also, Jeremy Reiner’s comment is a good one. Just having the -NAO isn’t always favorable for cold air and coastal storms in the Northeast. If the NAO is east based, the western 2/3 of the country is cold and it is milder on the eastern seaboard. Storms take an inland track to the west of us. If it is west based, it is cold right down the coast and we get coastal storm tracks that bring the snow. Hopefully he is right about the west based block coming into fruition after 12/15 – the longer range model forecasts do look somewhat more favorable by that time.

  39. Nothing to get excited about on the 12z Euro. Weak storm passes to our west Monday, cold shot in its wake, then temps moderating by the end of the period (12/15) but there is an area of arctic air building in the plains by that time.

    1. Mark, i noticed at the end of that run, at 240 hr, there is an area of low pressure developing not too far off the east coast. I wonder if this gets better organized as we get closer.

      1. Looked to me in the last two frames that it was heading out to sea. Temps were too warm across most of the eastern seaboard during that time period to support snow as well.

        Think we need to wait till after 12/15 before conditions are more favorable and we get some legitimate snow chances. My optimism meter is at a 6.3 that we get a couple snow events in the week preceding and during xmas. Maybe even a white xmas!

  40. While it is way too early to tell what this winter will bring, I respectfully disagree with TK and others on there being a difference between last December and this December. So far, the two have been remakarbly similar. Not just here in New England. Across the 48, it’s been well above normal, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest, where, you guessed it, it was also cold last year. And, as far as Canada is concerned, most of the temps in Canada are above normal, too. When we say the “cold air” resides in Canada we’re really only talking in relative terms. I just did a check of today’s temperatures in Regina, Calgary, Montreal, Halifax, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Toronto, and Labrador City, and all 8 report above normal temperatures. I am telling you, folks, that is not a good sign. It really isn’t cold in the habitable parts of Canada. Siberia is a different story. It’s quite cold there, and indeed colder than it was last December. However, in my view that has less impact on our weather than it does Europe’s (to illustrate, Western and Eastern Europe are mostly below normal temperatures right now).

    1. I think we need to wait till we are further into the month, but ur right, they are similar in the first 5 days and will probably be through the first half of the month. I think the overall global patterns and other variable are different this year than last, but the result has been the same. I have noticed, in eastern Canada at least, the temps and snowcover have been above normal and below normal respectively at this point. The real cold is still bottled up in AK and western Canada.

      1. You’re right about the snowcover in Eastern Canada. However, please note that Eastern Canada had a lot of snow last year, too. Quebec City had more or less a banner year, in fact. It wasn’t a cold year by any stretch (above normal temps), but it was a snowy winter; a lot of heavy, wet snow. The wetness of the snow is abnormal for QC (accustomed to dry, light snow – I travel there a lot and know it well). And, if we look at the jet stream all this makes sense. That part of Canada is a battleground between abnormal warmth south of the border and some cold enough air (to the north) to support snow. It’s snowing right now in Labrador City, but it’s a `balmy’ 24, with daytime highs around freezing and well above freezing in QC. In the end, TK will be correct and I’ll be wrong, because I’m just an observer, but I do think it’s worth mentioning that Canada really is not that cold (yet).

  41. Joshua I think the bigger difference from 2011 to this year really is November weather. I think this December has started off similar to last year but I will bet no way we end up like last year. I think Nov was a good indication of what might happen.

    1. You are 100% correct about November. This year was a completely different November from last year’s. I was hoping the trend would continue, and maybe later this month we’ll pick up where November left off.

  42. We have had very gusty winds int he last 2 hours and a 10 degree temperature drop to 41 in the last 90 minutes.

  43. I saw a report on the news and the U.S. current snowcover is at 7% compared to 32% at the same time last year.

      1. My best guesstimate would be large parts of Washington, Idaho, and Wyoming (all three experienced relatively cold early Decembers in 2011); parts of Montana, Utah, the Dakota’s, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin. I don’t think much in our parts, but probably some portion of Northern NY State, and also Aristook County in Maine, which tends to have snowcover year-round (kidding, of course).

      2. What’s really unusual right now – again, this could change literally with one clipper system moving through as may actually be the case late this upcoming weekend – is the lack of snow in the Upper Midwest and also northern tier of North Dakota. By now, snowcover is pretty much a lock in those parts.

  44. As far as the comparisons go regarding either viewpoint, we’re only 5 days into December. Anything beyond this is based on model forecasts, and we all know how risky that can be.

    1. You’re right, TK. We’re only 5 days in. I’m guilty of making the comparison based on a small sample size. Yet, I do think it’s important to keep a few things in perspective. For example, the notion that it’s really cold in Canada and it’s just poised to invade the lower 48 (this is not something you said, but I heard it a lot, especially late last week and into the weekend from various mets) is not accurate. It’s really not that cold in most of Canada. And, it’s really mild in most of the lower 48. To illustrate, it almost never rains in Minnesota (Central and Northern Minnesota, mind you) in December. Yet, that’s what they’re experiencing right now, after a week in which Minneapolis has hardly experienced frost (again very unusual for December). I hold out hope for the Upper Midwest, as the models appear to be trending towards normal values for this time of year, starting in a couple of days. Certainly not any below normal cold, but at least chances for snow and weather befitting of the holiday season. However, the cold there will hardly impact us in the short term. In fact, starting Friday we may go through another stretch of 4 or 5 days when the temperature at night barely goes below 40. That’s unusual in December. Not unheard of, but still.

  45. Thanks Mark for answering my questions! I have been working more lately and haven’t had as much opportunity to post here and read them as they are posted. By the time I read any posts, there are already a gazillion of them or TK has long since posted a new update. 🙂

      1. Loading the gun.

        Chatting with Barry today. We both agree on the longer range and that this pattern, despite being mild right now, is not a repeat of last year’s. There are far too many differences overcoming anything similar.

  48. good news and bad news i love how things cancel other things out like this. good I am still captain of my ski team. but they wont me race the first compitition saying i will be off do to my injury last year and they want to evaluate me still even though its been 11 months since i sprained my ankle. At least im going skiing with my dad in 2 weeks 😀 sorry for the rant :/

    Its going to be cold just to warm right back up. weekend on looks unsettled with rain showers :/ yet another disapointment

Comments are closed.