Brief Chill

77 Comments

11:46PM

The cold front went through, the cold air has come in and will be with us through Thursday night as high pressure moves across the region. A warm front will approach Friday, bringing clouds back. This front may produce some light rain late Friday before the warm sector visits for Saturday, along with a chance of rain showers. A little parcel of drier air will make Sunday the better of the 2 weekend days before another round of unsettled weather takes place early next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 25-30. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Thickening overcast. Chance of light rain late. Highs 45-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 53.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 48.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 42. High 61.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 36. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

77 thoughts on “Brief Chill”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Getting these days in without worry of cancellations or poor driving conditions ……. beautiful !

    The 0z GFS on 12/19 has cold and sn………. as President Bush the elder, used to say….not gonna do it !

    Have a good day all !!

  2. Boy the 00Z EURO really downplays that once strong midwest storm for early next week. Nothing more than a weak moisture starved low pressure going up through the GL and a cold front out ahead of it with a few showers and storms.

    2. About 2/3rds of the way down in the comments, there’s a gentleman who points out that it was a Cat 1 storm and that in the southeast, thats not a big deal…etc.

      He completely misses the point, by just focusing on the sustained winds. It had a central pressure of 940 mb, consistent with the energy of a Cat 3 or 4 storm spread out over an unthinkable amount of space. That low pressure also caused a 14 ft storm surge !

      1. Now see what you’ve done…… 😀

        I didn’t notice the comment section and I went and read it and am now totally amazed some of the foolish comments.

  4. Thanks TK! Still hoping for that white Christmas but was grateful to be able to take my photo for the Christmas cards at the beach yesterday. 🙂

    1. Now that is great news! I hope it’s true. Best news I’ve heard in a while! Love hockey and have missed the pro game this year. I have been to some college games.

      By the way, some people are enjoying colder than normal temps. A confluence of factors that normally don’t play out this way is setting up a winter storm for much of the Netherlands tonight and tomorrow. Very few winter storms in Holland, as I’ve reported before, so this will be a fairly unique event. Lows tend to move across the Atlantic in a northeasterly direction (from southwest to northeast). This time, however, a Low is running into a blocking high over Scandinavia and being shunted into a southeasterly direction, moving towards France and Central Europe from the British Isles. This unique combination of factors is a snowmaker for Holland. My guess is Amsterdam will see close to 5 inches, which is a lot for Amsterdam, and parts of the interior up to 10 inches, which is a tremendous amount for the interior. And yes, the snow will likely stick around a while as the blocking High is not going anywhere for quite some time, with more Lows being shunted southward and southeastward. The colder weather in parts of Europe that are normally moderated by their proximity to the sea is usually not a good sign for winter in New England. When it’s cold in Holland during the winter, it is almost never cold here in NE, and vice versa.

    2. John, where did you hear this? I just went to nhl.com and the headline is still “negotiations ongoing”

      2. I know. My coworkers told me they had a source at the td north. I was told deal done. I have been looking as well.

        1. I have a friend who actually works at the NHL in NYC. I have been bugging him for some inside information but he said he is not permitted to talk about it since he has actually been involved in some of the negotiations.

  6. Joshua, I was reading an article by a meteorologist last year (may have been Henry M) that said when Europe is very cold, it often translates into colder weather down the road in the eastern US. Indeed, if you look at this image of a Greenland Blocking pattern, you can see that both Europe and the US are often both cold at the same time when we are in this pattern:

    http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=greenland+block&view=detail&id=62D42E284F632936E6E0061AC4045A4405AFE115&first=1

    Thus, I would disagree that colder weather in Holland would necessarily signify milder weather here.

    1. Mark, thanks for sending. I’ve seen that figure before and I’m not sure I buy into it. If that were so, then during periods of Greenlandic blocking, which are quite frequent, Western Europe would be under an Arctic chill when there is blocking. It most assuredly is not generally Arctic at all! The prevailing southwesterly in Northwestern Europe (I mean really prevailing; like 80% of the time prevailing) is the culprit for the lack of winters that I generally experienced in Holland. Very little snow and not much cold either. A lot of gray skies, 40s, and light rain throughout most of every of the 16 winters I spent there. There were a few exceptions, and in each instance, New England experienced a relatively mild winter. My knowledge of weather in the Netherlands and England (Europe is really too big a continent to make general statements about) come from many years of living there, and knowing what was going on here while living there. Summers in Holland are generally rather wet and cool (60s and low 70s). This past summer was no exception. But, when Boston and most of NE experiences a relatively cool summer like it did a few years ago, Holland had a prolonged series of heatwaves and drought. For this unusual occurrence to happen, Holland has to have a blocking High to its Northeast. A stationary High that basically fends off all Lows that come at it. This is rare, but does happen. The High that is responsible for ushering in warmth (basically continental air from Russia) in the summer and an easterly flow is the same High that is responsible for ushering in cold in the winter. I do not know its relationship to our weather precisely, but believe me when I say that there is almost an inverse relationship to the type or pattern of weather we experience both during the summer and winter and what the Netherlands experiences. Another observation: Last winter’s only cold period in Western Europe, and it was a very cold period that lasted about 3 weeks, occurred when there was absolutely no Greenlandic blocking whatsoever. I think that you will see that once a firm Greenlandic block sets in our weather will revert to a more normal winter pattern, and Holland’s will revert to a more normal pattern. There’s some hope this may occur a few weeks down the road. Reading the Dutch weather website today (http://www.knmi.nl) forecasters cautioned against optimists (almost every Dutchman I know loves cold and snow, in part because they don’t get enough of it yet it was supposedly intrinsic to the nation in the 17th century) thinking this pattern would remain in place for a long period of time. One of the articles suggested that a more normal pattern of Atlantic Lows, light rain, 40s, etc … would probably happen by around the 18th of December.

      1. Very interesting observations Joshua and I would certainly defer to your knowledge of the area after living there for years. You are correct about the pattern last year – when it got really cold in Europe, it was still very mild here in the US. I believe that was around the time I read HM’s comment about the cold in Europe usually being a predecessor to cold in the eastern US. Not sure of the reasoning behind that (it certainly didn’t materialize last year), but it would validate what you are saying – one event preceding the other, rather than them occuring at the same time like the image I forwarded implies. I would be interested to hear TK’s take on the correlation between the temperatures here and there.

  7. As for the NHL Lockout I have a feeling a deal will get done soon. I never felt they were going to lockout for an entire season like they did back in 2004-05 season.

  8. 12Z EURO looks promising in the future. Something around 200 hrs and plenty of cold air to work with. I guess we can hope, right 🙂

  10. Hadi, not only that, 12z Euro now has the storm next Tuesday passing SOUTH and EAST of New England with some accumulating snow in northern MA and northern NE. GFS is still west with the low tracking over Buffalo.

    1. Instead of one strong storm going into the upper midwest and GL region, it shows a couple weaker systems riding along the front and up into our area.

  11. I will not get my hopes up until the PNA goes positive. Assuming the other teleconnections remain in a favorable phase.

  12. Apparently I was given wrong information today regarding the hockey lockout. Im sorry about that I should have researched right away. Apparently still not going good from what I heard on radio driving home. Again sorry.

    1. No problem John. I think they were getting same info on sports radio and figured it wasn’t accurate either. Easy to happen

    2. john, I heard a report a couple days ago from Steve Burton on BZ the lockout was coming to an end and an announcement would be made either yesterday or today. No one else in the media had that report. Late yesterday there were more reports coming out to confirm they were close. Now today, on the Sports Hub (not sure if thats the radio station u listen to) there was a report they requested mediators again and the negotioations were starting to break down again.

      1. I heard from trusted coworkers, I thought. Dont really listen to sports radio that Much, when I do It’s 98.5. What you just explained is exactly what I heard driving home. Running out of time. On a regular season the Bruins won the cup on June 15th.

  13. From Jeremy on 7:
    @jreineron7: Hmmm…I like what I see on the 18z..blocky blocky. #ColderPatternOnTheWay

    Tk, how was your meeting with BB?

  14. 18Z GFS…shows a great setup from 14th through christmas…multiple systems with more than ample cold…some with decent moisture…far off but getting closer.

  15. Theoretically, as a parent, is my job to pick my children up when they fall or is it to teach them how to get back up on their own? I look forward to your opinions.

    1. A little bit of both…and at least in my house, this is one thing I guess I never get right…. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      ” help her, she’s hurt!”

      or……

      “what are you doing, she’s fine !”

    2. I agree a little bit of both…pick ’em up, dust ’em off, let them know its not the end of the world…then encourage them to believe it.

    3. I think it depends on age. When they are really young picking them up shows them how to get up. As they get older a bit of both. If anyone thinks that you ever stop helping even just a bit I have a bridge for sale :))).

  16. I don’t put much stock in the 18z run of the GFS since it is usually garbage. Maybe this time its on to something.
    As far as the NHL lockout NJ Star Ledger reporting the NHL players association made another offer. The NHL responded in a voicemail the moves were unacceptable.

    1. Is that the offer made yesterday or a new one today. I heard tonight players asking for mediators to come back in too speed things up. Time will tell jj.

  17. The article from the NJ Star Ledger is about an hour old now. As I said earlier I still believe there will be a season. A deal needs to get done this month otherwise the season will be in serious jeopardy.

      1. NHL Network running on their ticker the NHLPA propsal rejected and no further talks planned. I thought this had the best
        chance for the lockout to end.

        1. This sport made a lot of money last year which to me is silly why this lockout happened. This is the third lockout
          in the past 18 years. Gary Bettman to me is going to go down as one of the worst commissioner’s in sports and he has
          got to come away with something here to show why this lockout was justified.

    1. Nice to see the NAO appearing to remain negative, although be it slightly, through that run…looked like it was headed more toward neutral/positive at the tail end of previous runs.

      1. The NAO can tank off the charts, but unless the PNA goes positive it means nothing in terms of snow. My bet is December ends up as “wasted cold”. Hope I’m wrong. 🙁

        1. I hear what you are saying…Is it true that without a positive PNA it is hard to generate large storms in the East, but still possible to have smaller systems. That’s been my understanding of it.

  19. Seeing some stories emerging, unfortunately, about lots of destruction and many fatalities in the southern Philippines from Hurricane Bopha………It still has a circulation and convection around its center, but because of prior land interaction and I believe a more hostile upper level environment, its much less intense than a couple days ago.

  23. For 4 consecutive runs the ECMWF 360 ENS has been consistent in keeping any potential accumulating snowfall north of a line from south central Vermont into central NH and Central Maine through 12/21. Overall precip amounts in that 2 plus week period is about ~1″ region wide in that time period, but mostly liquid except potential front end / back end frozen precip with no accumulation. For the most part cooler periods will be dominated by coldm sun filled high pressure, giving way to 2-3 day periods of warmth and the warmth will usually be accompanied by some precip arriving on a southwest to northeast path.

  24. Bottom line, I don’t see much help for our consistent precip deficit and I have above average confidence in the ECMWF ENS solution.

    One other note, I hate making seasonal forecasts because all forecasters have egos and I think at times they can make us to focused on trying to prove our hypothesis correct instead of accurately diagnosing the current atmospheric trends and combining it with reasonable solutions from the model data to make the most plausible forecast possible. Looking at one off 18z op run model data and basing potential forecasts off it is not a sound practice…

    1. I think you have some good points there. Speaking for myself, I enjoy watching each model run, 0z…6z..12z…18z…I am not biased, I like them all 🙂 But I have learned that some runs are more reliable than others and some models are more or less reliable in certain situations and timeframes.

      1. 90 percent of the 6z and 18z models are not worth the cost of electricity to turn on your computer to look at them. Exceptions to that re I do like them for trends 24 hours out from an approaching storm and there was an 18z gfs op about 10 days ago that nailed the pattern we are in. Of course it went haywire on the next run and never looked quite right since…..

        2. I know exactly which 18z run you are referring to. I even mentioned it on the blog – a rare time I liked an 18z run of the GFS.

  25. There is a correlation between temps in Europe and the eastern US, but it also is dependent on the overall pattern. I think you may see something happen when retrogression gets underway in the not-too-distant future.

    JMA’s description is one I agree with. Even with the mild interludes and periods of rain with air-mass changes, we are still in a drier than average pattern.

    Canada turns extremely cold in the days ahead. We won’t be able to keep all that air out of the US. We’ll see how much it actually gets across the border.

  27. TK ignore the one I have awaiting mod. I typed in the screen name but it is the same post as above.

    Agree with all you wrote.

    1. Will do!

      The spam bots have been killing me lately.

      I have to go through the messages slowly enough that I don’t miss anything.

  28. Its not just dry here, its dry over the majority of the US, of course with the exception of parts of the west coast hogging all the precip lately. The plains and midwest have worst deficits and even parts of Hawaii are suffering from abnormally dry conditions.

    1. If this trend continues, Summer 2013 is going to present some growing problems for crops in the Plains & probably the Midwest.

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