Mild Wave

117 Comments

2:18AM

Ok, we had our chilly day, and now it’s time for another wave of mildness. This will get underway today as a warm front moves in from the southwest, bringing clouds and eventually some light rain later today and tonight. Low pressure will travel northwest of New England by Saturday and we’ll spend a bit of time in the warm sector, but with a chance of rain showers as a cold front crosses the region. This will set up a nicer day on Sunday, though not perfect as many clouds will be around. Another low pressure area will travel up the St. Lawrence Valley just to the north of New England later Monday and early Tuesday with a similar wave of unsettled and mild weather. High pressure should deliver drier and chilly air to the region by the middle of next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 45-50. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A few periods of light rain. Lows 40-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers, mainly morning through midday. Highs 50-55. Wind SW to W 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 35-40. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 41. High 56.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers day and snow showers night. Low 36. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 23. High 41.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 42.

117 thoughts on “Mild Wave”

      1. South of the Southeast part of the China Mainland (I hope my geography is correct)…..moving north…. and, I think, destined to turn northeast, as I see a stream of high cloudiness whisking away northeastward into the Pacific Ocean. It looks like it has a chance to get caught into the Pacific pipeline of storms, I’d assume transitioning eventually to a strong mid latitude cyclone.

  2. I see TK has the terms light rain or showers, I recall JMA said precip totals ~1 inch region-wide the next several days and Philip wrote that Logan was -9.94 inches of precip for the year at Logan.

    So, lets hope these returning mild airmass precip episodes can overacheive, as the region clearly needs any kind of precip.

  3. models keep showing not much but occasional inside runners, innocuous cold fronts or way OTS. Pattern looks locked in at the moment. Would be shocked if it snowed hardly at all this month.

    1. Agree 100%. I’m no met but from what I am looking at it would take a turn of events to get anything significant this month. I see the possibility of some dustings but that’s it.

      Someone tell me I’m wrong!!!

  4. Tom-The ~1″ total is my thought for the next 2 weeks or so. I do see this upcoming 4-5 day period to deliver mostly light showers and approximately half of that inch or so. In general I do not expect any significant dent in our precip deficit or wintry precip through the 21st or so for most of SNE.

    1. Hi JMA.

      I apologize as I should have taken more effort to accurately write the time frame you gave in your post last night.

      Tom

  5. Just curious…was looking at the 0z GFS showed no precip on Wednesday of next week, look at the 0z ECMW and showed precip on Wednesday. What other info do you need to take into account to figure out which is most likely to verify? I see TK has no precip forecasted for Wed….how did you come to that conclusion?

      1. It’s king, but not perfect. Even in good guidance, adjustments are needed. My thinking at the time of that forecast was that its timing was a little off, though the pattern idea was superior to that of the GFS.

  6. I hold out hope for for 12/20 and beyond. I will go on the record and say that I think there will be snow on the ground for x-mas!!

    1. I’m hoping you’re right, Hadi.

      It will be snowing on and off in the Upper Midwest this weekend, so that’s good. They need all the precip they can get.

    2. I agree, the pattern becomes more favorable as we head into the week before Christmas. I think we get something in advance of Christmas and during the holiday week. Might not be huge events but with a colder pattern in place, low sun angle, and short daylight hours, even a light coating could stay on the ground for several days.

  7. Mark my thinking as well. Even though I will be up in Maine for X-Mass week, but I believe things get interesting around the 20th onwards.

  8. I will do more research on this later, but so far from what I have seen, Boston tends to have below normal snowfall winters when December snow totals are below normal and normal to above normal winters when December snow totals are similar.

    When I am not so busy, I will look more closely to see if this correlation is absolute.

    I believe normal snowfall for Boston in December is between 6.5″ – 7.5″.

    1. Interesting, Philip….I didn’t realize average for Dec was that high in Boston. Can’t wait to see what your research shows.

  13. It seems to me that we always seem to get a storm around the 19 of Dec. Date jumps out at me for past dates.

    1. 12Z GFS has this same thing same timeframe but far inland. Given the current stubborn pattern, i cant help but think the GFS will end up having this one right 🙁

  15. Thanks, TK.

    Seems rather chilly out. Feels more like snow than rain coming – wonder if there will be any ice inland.

  18. We go below normal in temps by December 15 along with a series of snow events (probably mostly light). I read that Euro as slightly overdone and bank on the outcome a bit further south than that but still the idea is, colder and starting to whiten the ground at mid month.

      1. Temp-wise, yes. I’m not so sure we jump into a wet pattern. I think the overall pattern is still dry. It’s just that once we go more persistently cold, what does fall is more snow than anything. So even with a below normal precip pattern you can start adding snow up a bit.

          1. Yes I did, but a series of snow events does not necessarily mean above normal precipitation for a given period.

            It can snow 5 times in a week and you can end up with less than 3 inches of snow and less than 0.25 melted under the right pattern. That’s still a dry pattern in terms of total precip.

            1. Ok. But any snow or rain would break that dry cycle on that given day,correct. Like now its raining outside. I had said one plowable event before christmas. Add new years as well.

  20. Interesting write up from the HPC….seeing something

    WHILE THE ACTION FOCUSES ON THE WESTERN STATES, THE EAST WILL NOT
    BE WITHOUT INCIDENT. A WAVE ALONG THE POLAR FRONT DAYS 3 AND 4 IS
    EXPECTED TO BE VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO PAINT A STRIPE OF PRECIPITATION
    ASTRIDE THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW A GOOD BET
    FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM PENNSYLVANIA NORTHWARD. IT IS POSSIBLE
    THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE WILL RECEIVE SNOW,
    WITH AREAS FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NEW
    ENGLAND VULNERABLE.

  21. This should answer the mess the GFS is these days..

    MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL
    ISSUANCE. AS A WHOLE, THE 12Z/07 GUIDANCE OFFERED A DIZZYING ARRAY
    OF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PERIOD, WITH THE 20 GEFS MEMBERS SO
    DISPARATE AS TO ELUDE ARITHMETIC CLUSTERING TOOLS. MUCH OF THE
    SPREAD WAS OVER THE EAST, WHERE THE POLAR FRONT IS SUBJECT TO
    PULLING AND TUGGING FROM VARIOUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES. THE 12Z/07
    DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WAS COMFORTINGLY SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z/07 RUN-
    UPON WHICH THE UPDATE PACKAGE WAS LARGELY BASED

  22. EURO ensemble NAO index

    2012120612z ECMWF Ensemble RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: -43.7439041
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: -121.905449
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: -132.096115
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: -156.630844
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: -148.631226
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: -155.832642
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -136.943237
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -120.981956
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: -126.072952
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: -121.157173
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: -134.673874
    NAO value for Day 1-5: -143.019257
    NAO value for Day 6-10: -127.965836

  23. Looking a bit more hopeful, maybe ? 🙂

    Now, for those near the coast and south of Boston, time to dump ice into the 49F ocean.

  26. Not that there’ll be a noticeable difference for a while, however tomorrow (Saturday) is the earliest sunset and then the sunsets lengthen until around next June 25th/26th.

    2. Yes…….speaking of tomorrow, I wonder if there’ll be consistency in the models towards mid-late month cold and potential light precip events or….if the models will flip flop on their NAO projections (as the EURO has been doing around days 8-10) and show a different mid to late month scenario.

  27. A gentle, very light rain falling in Marshfield. It would be nice if some of that rain in southern NJ and the Delmarva Peninsula could work its way up into the region.

    1. It would be nice Tom. It looks on radar like that area will slide south of us and the larger chunk of rain out in PA will go north of us. MA gets the dry slot in between which has happened more times that I can remember dating all the back to late summer/early fall. Its almost like any precip is being eroded away by some strange force, lol

  29. Logan’s climate avgs for 12/8 and 12/15 (courtesy of Taunton climate data)

    12/8 : 44F / 30F

    12/15 : 42F / 28F

  30. I see reading the NWS discussion out of Taunton the EURO is the only model showing a system Tuesday moving inside the benchmark while both the NAM and GFS show no system. Looking long range on the GFS and I know its the GFS but one word to say UGH when it comes to two systems the week before Christmas.

  31. You are looking at the 6 z GFS , can’t say ugh with that. What is important is that it shows a storm, details will be ironed out later.

  32. I was refering to two systems that are showing up on the latest GFS run the week before Christmas.
    Hadi makes a good point it is the 6z GFS run which like the 18z GFS run is not that great. Will see what the 12z run has to say.
    What I find interesting is the EURO for Tuesday is only model that shows a storm inside the benchmark while the other two models the GFS and NAM showing nothing according to the NWS out of Taunton. Is the EURO out to lunch here or is it seeing something the other two models aren’t???

  34. Some forecasts have this rain all day. I’m sticking with TK. We were going to get our tree and do outside decorations. We’ve never done either this late but something keeps getting in the way.

  36. Its still early, but prospects for snow do not look promising for Dec. Brett Anderson’s long range Euro map does not look favorable.

  37. so who else is seeing a pattern change from calm to active. after this week starting next weekend :D. Even thought it is the gfs some of the euro are also with it with a few storms. as of this morning. and the NWS issued a Blizzard warning for parts of the Dakotas

    1. Too late. I got into cooking anything that can be frozen for our Santa Lucia celebration next weekend so tree tomorrow. If I keep saying that we won’t have a tree at all :(.

  40. Nice to see some snow in the lower 48 – mostly confined to the Upper Midwest. I am really concerned now, however, about how this winter is progressing. I’ve noticed that the models keep delaying the arrival of cold air. This happened last year as well. The really cold air is trapped, mostly in uninhabitable parts of Alaska and Canada. Even when it dips into the lower 48 on occasion, it’s oh so muted. I mean we’re calling a 38 degree day cold. That’s telling. I see mostly 40s and 50s for the next 10 days, and that’s not getting me into the holiday spirit. I got my Mom’s tree today, in the rain (ugh!). Love the tree, the season, but absolutely hate this kind of weather.

  41. Have to get the PNA to go postive along with the NAO and AO being negative for winter to get going in the east.

  45. My thinking hasn’t changed for not much snow if any in the next 10+ days, I believe the last chance for a white Christmas will be between the 19th-21st and at this early time I think it’s a rainstorm for Boston and Providence points south and east, enjoy 🙂

    1. Charlie, i agree with ur thinking of not much if anything until that timeframe. And for that timeframe, given the current pattern, anything we get will most likely be in the form of rain with a storm system cutting to our west. Seems like a great pattern to pack up the snow in the great lakes and upper midwest.

  48. Hi All,

    Sorry to be awol for a bit. Extremely busy this past week, plus had 2 more
    says of training Thursday and Friday.

    Well, December is fast looking like a total BUSTORAMA 😀

    Here’s the 12Z Euro NAO forecast. YUCK!

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zecmwfnao.gif

    I suppose there is hope, but I’m not liking what I see.

    Oh well, GO PATS!! At least we have Monday Night. Should be an awesome game.

  49. Typhoon Bopha is set to hit the Philippines again. This time along the northwest coast. With so many resources being sent to the area already devastated, they dont have enough to help the people soon to be affected. Awful situation there.

  50. “Maybe”, “Perhaps”, “Slim Chance” of something Christmas Eve/Christmas Day.

    long, long, long ways off! 😀 😀 😀

      1. Heh just mumbling some thoughts and observations, but they are good signs. The 12z EURO long range is just downright depressing with a Polar Vortex sitting over Alaska, preventing the PNA from going positive, although it is only one model run.

  52. Helping mom at her house decorate the Christmas tree with cloudy skies and drizzle.
    Lets get some snow to make it feel like the holidays.

    1. Put on music. I was in the livingroom listening and when I just walked thru the house discovered others were playing Christmas music in four other rooms. Ver festive but it’d be even better if we synchronized

    2. I always get it to feel like the holidays regardless of the weather. Lots of music and movies today. 🙂

    3. Same here. Took the kids out for ice cream and seeing everyone’s lights, some houses are unbelievable…..and with Christmas music on the radio, the spirit was there….in spite of the springlike 45F drizzle. 🙂

  54. At all 4 reporting stations, today is avging 7 to 10 degrees above normal. Fairly cool and raw, but its last night, which was generally 35F to 43F, some 10 to 15F above normal for Dec. 7-8. I wonder if the cold front makes it in before midnight to give temps a chance to fall a bit ?

    1. We are coming home from dinner in newton and it seems really dark tonight despite the great Christmas lights

    2. If we are going to have wet I do wish it would actually be enough to make a dent in the deficit and not just drizzle

      1. I see a lot of things that no one else sees…….just kidding …..i think 😉

        Seriously though. Nothing has been accurate two weeks out (maybe one) so I figure its a 50/50 guess but not sure it means a thing

        How was the grinch, John.

  57. A record number of sea turtles are stranding on the cape. The water temps are staying higher longer again. I believe someone said its 49 now – maybe Tom?? On New Year’s day last year it was 46. Hmmmm

    1. I suspect as we head into a colder patern coming soon, that should hopefully drop that water temp right down.

  59. I think Charlie has done well, but he always throws out ideas that have no data to be backed by. I guess people can always be lucky in long range forecasts. Not 1 met has called for a January forecast yet let alone above average temps.

    But what the heck do I know, he clearly has been getting it right

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