Mid Weekend Update

139 Comments

8:49PM

Just an update to the eastern MA, southern NH, and RI forecast. Full discussion Sunday!

OVERNIGHT: Breaking clouds above patchy fog. Lows 34-39. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine in some clouds into afternoon then clouds increase by late in the day. Highs 43-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken and rain moves in. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Any rain ends in the morning, maybe a shower in the afternoon. Highs 60-65 occurring late in the day. Wind SE shifting to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds linger, maybe a period of light rain day and a few snow showers night. Low 40. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 43.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 43.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 44.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 47.

139 thoughts on “Mid Weekend Update”

  2. Thanks TK.

    I guess all winter is warm and winter is over. Clearly that’s what some are thinking. It’s also funny to realize that some people say they love snow and cold but clearly wish against it.

    1. I was thinking that when I said no snow for Christmas Day. I never wish against snow but – and there is always a but isn’t there – even more than wishing for snow I wish for families to be together.

    2. Its not snowing most anywhere. I recall reading a few days ago that midwestern locations have gone something like 240 days without more than .1 inch of snowfall on a given day. It was something like that, I think one of the cities was Chicago …….

  3. It was a foggy and damp evening at the Holidays in Halifax. Fireworks were going off at about 8:30 but we left before those started. Not sure how much could be seen considering the conditions.

  4. i do not like the knew weather underground wondermap set up. I can not get to anything but the map they already have up grrrrrrrr

  5. CPC shows above average temps as well.

    TK you still thinking colder and a little snow after the 15th? Everything seems to be pointing to above average temps through Xmas.

    1. Somewhere in there, yes. A return to a pattern more like November. Colder (but not as cold relative to normal as November was) and continued drier than normal. This idea of stormy continues to puzzle me. If CPC hasn’t learned by now that it’s a dry pattern, they may never.

  8. Thanks tk,, ponds that are usually frozen by now are just water, I don’t think that changes as we go towards mid-late Dec, I’m thinking my 21.3 will be right on but 3 quarters of it will fall in Jan to early Feb, have a good night 🙂

    1. I don’t know of too many ponds that are usually frozen over after the first week of December. Ice on them, yes, but completely frozen, not too many except maybe northern New England and some typical cold spots in southern areas.

      In a cold pattern you’ll get some of the smaller to medium ponds frozen over by mid to late December. November’s chill was not cold enough from a climatological standpoint to freeze much of anything over. And we’re 8 days into December that has been mild so far.

  9. I’m not really sure what everybody is thinking.

    There is nothing unusual going on.

    November was chilly. -2.5.

    December so far (8 days in) is mild – though a few days have come in cooler than normal the ones that have been above have been moreso. It looks mild for another week or so. Guidance points to an overall milder pattern for 10+ days with brief cold shots. This is not that far from the given long range forecast (just a little milder than what mine said).

    Winter over before it’s started? You may want to let January through March happen first. 🙂

    I have seen nothing yet that has surprised me about the pattern except maybe just a little bit of the persistence of the SE ridge during the last week. That’s about it. 🙂

    On other sites I have read posts about how bad this winter has been? Oh it’s winter? I didn’t know that! Last time I checked, winter started about December 21 or 22. Did the government make a change that I missed? 😉 And even if you are counting meteorological winter .. it’s only ONE WEEK OLD!

    As one of my colleagues says (and he’s completely right), you’re seeing the results of the instant gratification age. Just like it’s Christmas in the stores in September and October, and about this week all the Spring stuff will be out. Next week the Summer stuff will be out, and then right after the New Year it’ll be time for the Back to School sales!

    Ok. I’m done with my mostly tongue-in-cheek rant. 🙂

    Back to your regularly scheduled blogging… 😉

    1. All great points TK !! I’d like to throw out another angle on this…..

      I keep asking myself (based on what I perceive was happening during my younger years….. 70s into the 80s 🙁 yikes ! )

      Where have the mini southeast Canada arctic airmasses gone ? The one’s where Caribou, ME have nights approach -25F. The corresponding high that sits there and feeds very cold air into a coastal storm that produces inland powdery snows and even keeps snow at the coastline. Seems a more common comment of how winter storms are going to have to produce their own cold air. I did peek at Caribou, ME’s temps the last 3 winters and the anomolies are mostly through the roof, even during the winter of 2010 when the mid-atlantic got clobbered. But even in that winter, I remember it would be 28F in Orlando south of the storms, but it would be 22F in International Falls, MN.

      What has happened to the Bermuda high ?

      Hasnt it seemed that the central USA ridge has been dominant more and more lately ? Though uncomfortable, I miss the 3 or 4 day heatwave where its 90F or 91F, but the dewpoints are in the low 70s that come from an east coast centered ridge. Instead, it seems we see our area sitting at the far eastern edge of a huge central USA ridge that keeps our area very warm and instead of an approaching mid west trof with an associated trof moving eastward to cool us off, it seems like its a retrograding ridge that allows the cooler air to settle in more from our north. Fewer and fewer times in summer does it seem where Minneapolis is 68F one day, then Detroit the next is 74F, then 2 days later its 80F in Boston.

      Anyhow, I just get myself talked into thinking that there are subtle little pattern changes, as noted above, that I feel as though dont mesh with what I recall from my younger years. (of course, this in of itself is scary as I proclaim to be one of those types that cant remember what I ate for breakfest yesterday 🙂 ).

      Wow….its bright out, I guess I was composing my thoughts on this for a bit 🙂

      2. The eastern Canada arctic air and Bermuda High set ups are probably more related to a couple decadal oscillations in some combination. They will both be back.

  10. Winter is over before it even started, I’m thinking a mild December leading into a colder jan leading into a springlike feb and mar 🙂

  11. The sunset went from setting at 4:11 to 4:12pm so we gained a min in the evening, In 1 month daylight will be 45 min longer 🙂

  12. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz. (An easier one. And I actually got one right.)

    What wind pattern has the most influence over the movements of fronts across America?
    A. Northeast Trades
    B. Sub-polar Easterlies
    C. Labrador Currents
    D. Prevailing Westerlies

  13. I am going to go with D.
    Still looking for winter and I’m not seeing it. UGH!!! Rainorama on tap tonight into tomorrow and then it looks like more rain as some point next weekend as once again will be on the warm side with a storm cutting to the west. Farmers’ Almanac and their 85% accuracy they claim is not doing good so far this month since the rain next weekend was suppose to be a significant snowstorm. I am not nervous about the 37.4 inches I predicted yet. If snowfall is around 15 inches by the end of January then I will start to get nervous.

  14. Take a deep breath everyone. Winter has not started, but it will.

    Charlie winter over before it began? You are full of excitement for us who like winter 🙂

  15. Charlie I beg you to not tell us how winter is over on every post. If you believe it just keep to to yourself. I hope that doesn’t offend you.

    1. Well, I dont buy that the arctic will be ice free in summer anytime soon or that cold and snow are about to dramatically disappear…..

      but, I do wonder if the smaller details of the larger scale patterns are subtly different……Superstorm Sandy actually doesnt factor into this at all for me….the examples above, also for example, the amount of the US thats been dry or is currently dry….maybe its short term anomolies, maybe not……

  17. My first Accuweather Trivia Quiz was posted at 6:56 am. Here is the 2nd one.

    Which state sees the most sunshine per year?

    A. Florida
    B. Arizona
    C. Texas
    D. California

      1. B for me. And I love contrarians. My family tells me I am one. Charlie might agree :). I think it’s a compliment

  19. Tk great point above. I have been laughing so loud regarding the above posts. Hadi winter like tk and myself have been saying is not even here yet. The snow is coming. How do I know, Because I know no two winters are alike. I personally think this dry pattern will disappear. Patience is key. Winter will be here in 13 more days. Maybe before than or after that date she will most definitely let you know she has arrived, and here for awhile.

    1. I guessing you mean you are laughing at everyone. 😀 We all are guessing same as Hadi and you too I know there are factors that hint but too often the things that come into play are not what are expected especially so far out

      1. Im laughing at everyone who thinks winter is over and also compareing too last winter. Of course in a respectful way. Any met will tell you no back to back winters are the same. And answering your question last night the grinch was excellent, very good show. Glad we went.

        1. Fair enough ! 🙂

          If on Dec. 21, the EURO’s 10 day outlook looks like today’s, then we’ll need some new reasons for winter’s anticipated arrival…. Maybe it can be like Letterman’s top 10 or something…..

  22. I got a good chuckle reading the above posts.

    As far as I am concerned, I can’t say as of yet that Winter is over.
    I can say that I DON’T like what I see so far. The Euro out to 10 days
    and the GFS out to 16 days don’t hold much promise at all. So it now looks like
    we’ll be out to Christmas before any hope at all. Sound familiar????

    Regarding subtle changes and looking back at the past. Well I go back much
    farther than most here. 😀 During my high school years (Millis), we were almost
    always able to play ice hockey on the local ponds by this time in December.
    (I probably fell through the thin ice more than anyone else. 😀 :D)
    Sure, there were exception years, but generally this is what I remember.

    On the plus side, I am not opposed to saving money of my heating bill. 😀 😀

    1. OS it’s the same I’ve been saying about November. I had the porch temp down to high 30s for a few days but its back up to mid 40s. The nov avg was below normal but I also remember ice skating before Christmas. There has to be a reason avg is down but things are not freezing.

  23. I, too, remember the winters of my youth. They seemed colder and snowier than they do now. But, then, the summers then seemed sunnier. Maybe the climate is changing, but I kind of think it’s all perspective. I was certainly aware of storms when I was younger and my fascination w/the weather hasn’t changed – it’s actually gotten stronger. Yes, it has definitely been dry everywhere the past year. And I like to guess on what the summer/winter will be like. Frankly, this year I don’t want to try and guess. I am leaving that up to all the professionals on here! The one thing I do believe is that this winter will not be a repeat of last winter.

    1. If on the outside chance this winter is like last winter, I think we are in a lot of trouble. Normally, doesn’t life and nature balance itself out at some point?

      1. if it does what it did last winter. i be really mad with mother nature. and yes usually nature balances itself out. so maybe it will surprise us in january 😉

      2. I hope it does even out Rainshine. We just don’t seem to want to break from the drought stretch. And I’d say a resounding yes that nature balances. I guess the wildcard is how much man had tipped the scales. I’m not saying last winter or drought are man made We won’t know that until its too late I’m afraid.

  24. well, 12z GFS is looking a little different. Let’s see if we can start a trend or not. We’ll see what king euro has to say.

  25. Totally agree with TK, Hadi, and John’s post above. Cannot believe the pessimism about the lack of a winter so far when meterological winter is only a week old and the official start of winter is still a week and a half away! The pattern we are in now is nothing like the pattern last year at this time. Most indications point to a colder pattern setting up beyond 10 days out and with it will come snow chances. Indeed, the 12z GFS now has a snow event for next Sunday and Monday and again just before Christmas. Can’t hinge on every model run – they are going to waiver back and forth a bit but the general trend is there! Patience folks!!!

    1. Really rooting for the Redskins today along with the rest of New England, as Baltimore has the tie breaker with the Pats head to head for the 2 seed. Of course, that assumes the Pats can win out, not an easy task with the next 2 games against Houston and San Francisco.

  27. They look like they are getting clobbered in Minneapolis and sure enough, here is the latest ob……

    Heavy Snow, 1/4 mile, 31F….

  29. Nastiest year for Christmas trees I can remember. I admit to being majorly picky but we finally settled and I’ve never had to do that. My kids said the same and once inside poof. I can only think it has to so with the drought. A few years ago they all totally dried up once inside too but then the growers thought it was due to an unusually warm stretch in November bringing them out of their dormancy.

  30. Winter is over! No snow for you! We will be complaining about HHH weather before we complain about a major snowfall for eastern mass. Wrap your head around it and accept it. Winter is ovah!

      1. Well it’s snowing at wayside inn Sudbury. They closed early cause they couldn’t keep up. Ask Rainshine. Except I suspect she’s outside shoveling 😉

        3. How did you know! 🙂 Just got in from shoveling – it’s like a beautiful winter wonderland w/all the Christmas lights – oh, gosh. Now I feel depressed! Maybe if there’s a little thunder or lightning w/the rain in the nxt. few days it might make up for no snow? 🙂

        1. Wish other guidance agreed. Other models take
          it Clearly OTS. Perhaps something to cling onto?
          😀

  33. I try to qualify my comments on the winter we’ve been having thus far by saying it’s far too early to call it a dud. No-one can say winter is over before it got a chance to get started. This said, I am concerned and have been for close to two weeks. I see some striking similarities to last December, across much of the nation in fact. While two winters back-to-back are not going to be the same, last December and this sure do feel alike. And yes, it’s not folklore or being old-fashioned to say that winters (and Decembers in particular) were colder in, say, the 1960s and 1970s. They were generally colder. I lived in Needham from 1970 to 1974 and skated every December on natural ice (local pond). We had some mild patches and our fair share of rain and ice during the winter months. It wasn’t all snow or all cold. But, we were consistently cold by December and it stayed that way for a prolonged period of time, with brief thaws usually followed by sharp (I mean really sharp) cold snaps (which we’ve now not had in close to two years). Days in the 40s and 50s did happen, but not 3 or 4 in a row or a long period period (like we’re now experiencing) during which frost at night is hardly happening.

    1. Bingo. I have been thinking consistency is the missing piece of the puzzle. And you are right it’s too early to tell. It isn’t even officially winter yet. It simply seems this dry pattern doesn’t want to let go

    2. Too me it is more January and Febuary that you want to wory about, that is usually the worst two months if it snows, in which case it will. Thats when you want everything too come togeather. December In my view is just the warm up month. December only has like what nine days of winter.

  34. 12z Euro NAO forecast is negative throughout the entirety of its run.

    2012120912z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: -147.042953
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: -124.579453
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: -97.6769333
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: -80.1235962
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: -93.0858307
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: -86.2677155
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -80.9122162
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -95.3428116
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: -134.275284
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: -142.310059
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: -96.3561478
    NAO value for Day 1-5: -96.3467026
    NAO value for Day 6-10: -109.839302

  36. CPC 10 to 14 day outlook for week of 12/17 to 12/24 indicating above normal precip and near normal temps for SNE.

      1. Retrac and Souza’s snow guns. And maybe throw Charlie’s house in to boot (after he vacates it for Texas).

        3. that’s right peeps. my gun is ready to go. can’t wait to take it out for a test drive once it’s cold enough!

          I’ll post another video again once we get a nice wet bulb day and I get her going.

          Souza’s got one huh. How’d you build it Matt should you see this?

    3. I hope not on christmas day at all or eve. That would take me away from my family because I would be doing snow removal. Lots of folks out and about those two days getting to see family and friends. And for myself it would only take a suger coating too get the crew in.

    4. By white xmas, I mean there will be snow on the ground on 12/25, not necessarily that it will be snowing on xmas day. My feeling is that we get one snow event within the week preceding xmas and without a significant warmup following it. Not necessarily saying we will have a major event, but a storm (or maybe 2) that produce at least few inches and is enough to coat the ground.

      1. I’m good with that. But this warm is also good for me as its keeping the overtime coming. So warm is good for me and snow is good for the pocket.

  39. Answers to today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes

    1) What wind pattern has the most influence over the movements of fronts across America?
    A. Northeast Trades
    B. Sub-polar Easterlies
    C. Labrador Currents
    D. Prevailing Westerlies
    Answer: D

    2) Which state sees the most sunshine per year?

    A. Florida
    B. Arizona
    C. Texas
    D. California
    Answer: B

  41. My daughter is reporting about 8 inches of snow in St. Paul, Minnesota, with another storm possible late this week. Tomorrow’s high there will be 15, with a low near zero. Now, that’s the weather I’m hoping for. I remember with fondness and longing the frigidness in January 2003 and 2004 in Boston. There’s nothing more invigorating than an Esplanade run along the frozen Charles with temps in the teens. The cold has a way of making the pollutants go away (at least it seems the pollutants disappear), killing off all unwanted insects, and cleansing our souls.

  43. Last 5 December’s at Logan :

    2007 : 26.9 inches of snow, temp -2.4F below normal. Boy, I dont remember this.

    2008 : 25.3 inches of snow, temp +0.9F, I do remember the 6.6 inch snow on New Year’s Eve Day

    2009 : 15.2 inches of snow, temp -1.6F

    2010 : 22.0 inches of snow, temp : -2.1F

    2011 : Trace of snow, temp : + 5.3F

    All data from Taunton NWS climate section.

    1. Wow. Thanks. I remember 2007 well. It’s the year my FIL passed away in October. My MIL was staying with us. She was not a fan of cold and snow and we were trying to convince her to move here from charleston SC to be close to us I am convinced if snowed repeatedly just to challenge us.

      1. I think you are right. I remember significant damage on the south shore and then a very warm New Year’s Day

      2. Yes, it was 12/26 and 12/27 storm, 9.9 inches prior to midnight, 8.3 inches after midnight…..

        Your right Vicki, lots of coastal flooding on south shore….we had a bit if snow, then mostly rain in eastern parts of Marshfield. But, that year, we had a white Christmas as I recall, because of an event a few days before 12/25.

  45. Thanks for the info Tom. I was gonna dig that up after I decorated my tree. And last December was exceptional. This December isn’t much like it, nor will it go that direction.

  48. It’s nice to see snow flying somewhere in the US below 5000ft, lol. I guess a good thing is we’ll some much needed measurable rainfall for the next 24 hrs or so.

  49. 0z NAM continues to show a deepening coastal storm clipping SE MA with a quick hitting snow storm Thursday. If it were to verify, up to 5″ on the immediate south coast and up to 10″ on Nantucket. Of course it has no other model support so not likely to happen.

  50. 0z GFS still looking favorable and depicting a snow event for Sunday 12/16, a close shave with a large ocean storm on 12/19, and another storm threat 0n 12/23-24.

  52. It sure looks like its going to pour in the southeast 1/3 part of New England the next few hours.

    Ok….I can see the EURO starting to trend towards yesterday’s ensemble as that 12/19 storm looks a bit further south on today’s run. My only thought though is that the EURO has been consistent the last couple days on making all the cold air leave the entire country prior to its arrival.

    By the way, the George’s Bank water temp is 66F. I guess they must be close to the influence of the Gulf Stream.

    1. The gulf stream is pretty amazing. There are fan palm trees that exist on the western shores of Scotland because of its warming influence. And your talking nearly the same latitude as Labrador!

  54. check out Brett Anderson’s blog this morning. I-95 not looking good for snow if that turns out to be true. Not much cold air anywhere. hmmmmmm…

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