Colder Midweek…

170 Comments

12:56AM

The unseasonably mild air mass that flooded the region and produce downpours and even some thunder for parts of the region Monday is on the way out as high pressure pushes in and brings colder and drier weather through the middle of the week. Moderating air returns Friday but another cold air mass will be lurking just to the north of New England and may play a part by later in the coming weekend in bringing some rain/snow to the region as low pressure comes along.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Any lingering rain showers eastern areas especially Cape Cod ending by mid morning, otherwise clearing with increasing sun NW to SE. Highs 45-50. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-27. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 20. High 41.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 24. High 46.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 43.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. PM snow/rain. Low 28. High 40.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain/snow showers. Low 32. High 38.

170 thoughts on “Colder Midweek…”

  1. In case the replies on the previous blog were missed:

    Once again this is not a repeat of last December. It’s a different pattern. There are more than a few patterns that result in mild stretches of weather.

    I’m still puzzled by a fairly wide view (not necessarily here but in other areas online) that winter is being judged prior to its first day. It’s autumn, astronomically.

    It can’t be any more clear that we have been and remain in a dry pattern. 3 out of 4 days with rain in them do not make a wet pattern. Boston’s 3 “wet days” saw rain of 0.03, 0.08, and 0.56. Hardly excessive. Boston’s precipitation deficit as of today for 2012 is nearly 9.5 inches. That is significantly dry. Indications for the Sunday-Monday event are for moderate precipitation amounts at best.

    Beyond this, there are increasing signals for a return to the pattern of November. Models will show larger, closer storm events only to likely have the results somewhat different.

    That said, be careful not to judge our weather pattern on computer forecasts. Judging the pattern on observed results is without a doubt a more accurate way to assess the situation. 🙂

    1. Jeremy Reiner ‏@jreineron7

      Snow lovers..here’s our pattern heading for the Holidays. Blocking west of Greenland..chance of east coast snow goes up

  4. Thanks TK.
    Interesting little discussion from NWS out of Upton NY that 0z EURO and GFS have backed off on deep cyclogenis with the next storm threat but still too early to discount that. A number of the GFS ensemble members place mid to upper 980 lows near the benchmark in the Sunday Monday time frame while one places a 979 low over Boston for Monday.
    Sounds like we got a watcher here.

  5. Thanks TK. Good comments. To me we simply have to break out of the dry pattern for reasons having nothing to do with wanting snow although its a lovely bonus. I sure hope we go back to the tease of more precip we had in nov. jR said snow Sunday turning to rain. I’m hoping it is actual rain and not the drizzle we’ve had the past two systems that have not reduced the deficit. Better yet, let it be all snow!!

  6. Thanks TK !

    Back to work…..least common multiple today…

    Wow Pats !!

    Looking forward to sun for the rest of the workweek.

  7. 0Z Euro at 168 hours (Monday 7PM):

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif

    0Z Euro at 216 & 240 hoursHours (next Wed & Thurs evening)

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif
    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

    We got a couple of watchers here for sure. Going to look at some other models.

    What an awesome Pats game! Superior on all fronts! Interesting how the announcers kept saying Schaub was not on his game! Like the Patriots had nothing to do with that! 😀

    1. 0Z Euro predicted NAO indices:

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zecmwfnao.gif

      2012121100z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
      NAO value for forecast hour 000: -97.6800537
      NAO value for forecast hour 024: -71.6520004
      NAO value for forecast hour 048: -47.2865295
      NAO value for forecast hour 072: -75.7244415
      NAO value for forecast hour 096: -76.2768631
      NAO value for forecast hour 120: -84.8342743
      NAO value for forecast hour 144: -100.006821
      NAO value for forecast hour 168: -93.4822922
      NAO value for forecast hour 192: -125.829819
      NAO value for forecast hour 216: -148.698639
      NAO value for forecast hour 240: -172.328369
      NAO value for Day 1-5: -71.1548233
      NAO value for Day 6-10: -128.069183

    2. 06Z GFS at 144 Hours (1AM Monday):

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F11%2F2012+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=144&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      06Z GFS at 204 Hours (1AM Wednesday):

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F11%2F2012+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=204&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    3. Thanks for the links as always, OS

      I started talking back to the TV after they said Schaub was off his game way too many times. Exceptional game and there were times Brady and Welker didn’t hook up but they got it done anyway!

    1. I’d Be happy to IF I knew where to get it. Wundermap goes only to 180
      and we are having troubles copying links.

      😀

      1. OK, if you have time check out New England Weather Works on facebook. They have that posted and it looks very nice for our area. I know I know it probably won’t happen but its something.

  11. TK – I think the weather sentiments you comment on are very sumilar to our sports sentiments. After the Pats loss to Cardinals people were saying their season was “over.” Weren’t folks saying Wes Welker was “overrated” in september….? the Red Sox lose a couple in the spring, “forget this season.” a warm day in April ? “were gonna have a long hot summer.” Usually by July 4 somebody is saying that summer is “over.” I think it’s just part of being a New Englander? I own a retail food establishment and no snow is great for my business but I feel for those who plow and ski. Just a few
    Things your comments made me think of.

    1. Funny – I was thinking last night of the same comparison – winter over, brady needs replacing. I remember believing they would trade Welker and seem to recall TK did as well. Although I’ve never thought he was overrated as he is one of my favorites. I am very happy he was not traded. Perhaps it is human nature or a way to “protect” from disappointment.

        1. Hey Guys, it was Coastal with that Map not I.
          He mentioned NewEngland Weather Works.
          I simply went to FB and looked up NewEngland Weather Works and copied the link to the Map image. 😀

  13. I will be happy if just one of the three storm threats deliver snow.
    Thanks for the link Old Salty and some pretty impressive numbers that 0Z EURO has on it.

  14. There are several chances which is nice to know. Whether they materialize or not is to be seen. But at least we have some things to track.

  16. I bought the biggest, baddest Ariens snowblower they make for homeowners this fall. All I’ve done is kick the tires! Bring king Euro in!

    1. My brother bought a big bad Ariens in the mid 1960s with the money he made shoveling. We retired it in 2007. Don’t know if they make them like they used to but I’d say 40 years is one heck of a life.

  17. There are a lot of people I know that get a snowblower and the winter ends up with not much in the way of snow.
    Hopefully this won’t be the case with you Retrac.

  18. Here is the NWS thoughts on the storm for Sunday.

    OBVIOUSLY…THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK/
    STRENGTH/TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPES THIS FAR OUT. MODELS SHOW
    A DECENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA…WHICH WILL
    LIKELY SEND ENOUGH COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR SOME
    WINTER WEATHER. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL MAKE
    IT INTO OUR REGION…BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME
    SNOW/ICE WOULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES.
    CURRENT MODELS WOULD INDICATE THAT IT MAY BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH
    SNOW ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN…ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY WOULD NOT RULE
    IT OUT AT THIS POINT. KEEP IN MIND…PLENTY OF THINGS CAN AND
    OFTEN DO CHANGE WITH A FORECAST 5+ DAYS INTO THE FUTURE.

    1. Portland, ME harbor water temp : 48F

      Boston Harbor water temp : 49F

      ocean east of us running 2 to 3 Celcius above normal…

      we’re going to need a very, very cold…well placed high to the north to avoid unusual boundary layer issues, even inland.

  19. I was thinking almost the same thing last night with this 1st storm potential. I think this ends up as mostly rain with a mix to rain for the far interior. I hope I am wrong.

    1. TK, even a novice from this blog would be able to tell that they are hype specialists and not to be taken seriously. I was referring to the Euro snow output for 240 hours. that they posted and not some made of snow graph that they publish.

  21. Based on Brett Anderson’s latest blog, I would say that any snow would occur just after Christmas hopefully by or on New Years. In the short term, the pattern looks mild & wet with the very cold still holding in Alaska and western Canada.

    Unfortunately, a brown Christmas still looks the most likely scenario at this time. 🙁

    1. I would also like to add that Brett Anderson doesn’t feel that any arctic airmass will have any real staying power for the northeast during this upcoming winter…more bad news for snowlovers. 🙁

      In other words, very brief visits if any. I am beginning to get a bad feeling that snow totals while may be more than last year, will not by by much. We will see.

  23. Weather forecasts still have me concerned as I’m not finding the consistency I’d like to see. Nevertheless, I accept TK’s analysis, as he’s great at what he does. Now, briefly on the subject of football:

    I’m convinced the nation’s sports commentators don’t like an `intellectual’ football team. A few exceptions here and there – Phil Simms being notable among them. Everyone bets against the Patriots, or hopes they’ll lose. And yet, despite 12 years of never-ending churning of players (Brady is the only one left from the 2002 Superbowl champs), all they generally do is win. Most importantly, they do it with truly remarkable football acumen. This is not about talent, or lack of injuries. The Patriots have more key injuries than most teams, and their talent level – though good – is not exceptional across the board. For all of Belichick’s foibles, he is a brilliant coach. Best I’ve ever seen. He’s like a Russian chess master, constantly baffling the opposition with moves they seemingly didn’t anticipate and can’t react to. I only watched the first half of the game yesterday. It was a beat-down. The vaunted Houston Texans had no chance. On defense, they were left scratching their heads, as Brady literally picked them apart. His insight (`reading’ the defense prior to the snap) and decision-making as quarterback are second to none. The Houston defensive coordinator – Wade Phillips (it should be added, maybe the stupidest man to ever coach a football team; he coached Dallas miserably for about 4 years) – looked dumbfounded on the sidelines. On offense, Houston appeared hapless as well. Matt Schaub was helplessly bad. I mean downright awful. Not all due to nerves. He could not do the `reading’ that Brady can, not able to pick up surprise blitzes and unable to elevate the football (I think I saw 3 blocked passes in the spate of 3 minutes).

    1. I mostly agree and might add that the Patriots have been the most watched nfl team in last 5 in a half yrs spiking bandwagoners and haters across the country, there r haters and that’s great bc they have an opinion and on the flip side there r kids that watch the patriots 1 bc there always on and 2 they win, in a sense was the perfect storm esp if they ever went on to there 8th Super Bowl in franchise history and won a 4th championship 🙂

  24. Lets see where we are at the end of January beginning of February before judging the winter. You could still get a snowstorm in an overall mild pattern as was the case last year with the Pre Halloween Noreaster.

  27. Henry’s forecast similar to the Farmers’ Almanac. Maybe this one time they will both be right about something.
    Henry was way off when he tweeted prior to Thanksgiving that winter in the east comes in with a vegance after Thanksgiving with cold and snow.

  28. Joshua as on outsider of the Patriots, I love Brady and the team and what they have done. I find BB to be arrogant, condescending to fans etc.. I remember a game against my Skins in 2007 that was 45-7 with 5 minutes left in the game and on 4th down they are throwing in the end zone. This was Joe Gibbs as head coach ( I might add a class act) and his media session afterwards was very unhappy with BB. Yes I know as a defense you need to stop someone argument but BB embarrassed himself in my mind that day. This type of behavior is what upsets fans accross the country and why they wish the Patriots lose. Just my 2cents

    1. Hadi, that’s what happens to bad teams. They get the bleep kicked out of them and then they complain that we scored to much. Probably should have relocated the Skin’s to the Canada. Let me ask you, should children in youth sports all get a trophy?

      1. Nope but there is a professional way to conduct yourself which I believe BB does not believe in.

        What upsets people is the arrogance that fans show when they are successful. People forget how bad the Pats were and thus this type of attitude 🙂

        1. In situations like the 4th down play you described it is customary for the offense to go for it because the defense has a better chance at stopping a play from scrimmage than blocking a field goal attempt. Play the game at half speed and someone will get hurt. He should professional courtesy by going for it.

          Joe Gibbs disrespected himself and the organization by laying down like a dog and taking that kind of beating.

          BB is a great man of character who has a fascination with history. He came from a very structured up bringing and is the main reason we he is the best couch to ever manage a NFL Team.

  31. 12Z GFS OTS to sea and socks the Mid Atlantic just like TK has been predicting for the big storms this winter 🙂

    1. Nah, not going OTS:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121211%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=216&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F11%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=80&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

      Even though depicted here, it’s coming up the coast! 😀

    1. This argument has some big holes I can drive a truck through. Explain Matt Cassels performance the year Brady was out compared to how he looks today in KC?

    2. I asked my SIL about this because it is something that I hear and that confuses me. SIL said in 2007 all the teams – including the Redskins – were saying the Pats won because of spygate. BB and the entire team made a point to show that wasn’t the case and proved their point. What bothers me is that if a team isn’t scoring why that team expects its opponent to stop scoring too. The Patriots play to win and asking a team to change its “game plan” because another team isn’t playing as well just doesn’t make sense to me.

      1. If they won bc of spygate then why r they still winning? The Patriots have been to more superbowls than any other team and have won more games than any other team and it’s not even close, I’d be more than happy to discuss why spygate had less than 1% to do with winning, football and football coaching is deep in my family Go Patriots!!

      2. There r a lot of jealous people out there but I read an article from USA saying spygate today couldn’t have worked out any better, since 2007 they have been the most watched football team in America, they got the new saying up at Gillette u can’t be American without being a Patriot 🙂

  35. You are missing the point, no team throws on 4th down up by 40 points with 4 minutes left. Show me a team that does that.

    We will never agree on this subject so better to drop it and move on and agree about the weather 🙂

    1. Agreed but shhhhhh don’t tell anyone – pats didn’t have a running game then 😉

      And on to the weather – what a difference a day makes – glorious late fall day – sunny, blue sky, 42 with a 27 dp

      1. Agreed Vicki, was out walking on my lunch break and it was beautiful. Even though the sun angle is low, with very little wind, that sun warmed me up nice 8)

    2. Drew Bree’s did last yr trying to break his record but it was 3rd down but with less than 2 min to play and made it 44-10

    1. Waaaaay OTS. Figures. We’re like the pins at the end of a bowling alley and all the bowling balls are being thrown into the left and right gutters…

    1. Wxrisk.com
      8 minutes ago
      NO …I do not accept the 12z dec 11 run of the ecmwf. It represents a wild radical shift and does NOT agree at all with the last several runs or the euro ensemble or the overall pattern.

  40. I’m not sure the redskins ever said that but it doesn’t matter both bellicheck and Brady will be 1st ballot hall of famers and as felger on the sportshub would say that’s fact not opinion,, haha have a good day everyone 🙂

      1. Hadi you may well be right and since you are a Redskins fan will assume you are. My point was not well stated, but it was that the league in general was saying the pats victories were due to spygate and the pats set out to make certain everyone knew the victories were won with talent. They proved their point. All that being said, asking a team to stop scoring because you are not scoring to me seems a bit odd. And you are right, we will not agree but it’s a fun discussion and as always I’ve learned a lot.

  41. These models will go back and forth with these potential systems. I’m not terribly discouraged.
    The UGH meter very low at a 2 for now.

  42. I have nothing but love for the Patriots as an organization. I love the team and the players but just can’t stand BB. Shoot me for that if you choose but if you were not such ardent fans you would see that he is total jerk, but you can’t see that because you are too biased. Fact not fiction. And I don’t come from a point of jealousy.

    1. hmmmm……..not so much. I have this nasty, nasty habit of looking at things from two…….or a dozen………sides. Drive people nuts. I am the most critical when it comes to my own. So it may be fact………but only fact according to Hadi …… and that is how it should be. We all see things from our own perspective and appreciate that others do as well 😕

    3. I’m a huge Patriots fan hadi and I agree he is arrogant but his smartness is way beyond anything I’ve seen in my lifetime of football, when all said and done he will be arguably the best coach ever, it will depend on region, I still have friends from dallas that can’t get out of the past and I mean 20yrs ago past, no offense to jj but most dallas fans r stuck in the early 90’s, I think it’s a Texas thing haha

      1. A touch of arrogance – and I’m not sure that is the correct word – goes with exceptionally talented/successful individuals. Tiger Woods and Ted Williams would be examples. It doesn’t take from greatness and we all have faults

  43. 12z Euro = decent and showing a return to a chilly/dry pattern (November’s pattern). No surprise here.

    1. That said, I do think we start seeing some light snow events in that pattern. Still need some luck for a white Christmas over the entire region, but I’m banking that some areas are going to have snow on the ground for Christmas this year (maybe not much).

        1. Yeah it sits around 30% normally and I think with the upcoming pattern I’ll put it at 40% for now for any given location in the WHW forecast area.

  45. I thought of you TK as soon as I saw the 12Z EURO run based on your winter forecast.

    I do think the models overall are having a hard time with anything set because we are transitioning from maybe 1 pattern to another. I just think when I see such fluctuations from the models from run to run (including the EURO) I assume its having a hard time catching on to a solution.

  46. Let the fun begin 🙂

    BY SAT DRY WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
    ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH A COOLING
    TREND SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEAST. BY SUN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
    THAT THIS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE EVOLVES IN A CLOSED LOW NEAR
    NEWFOUNDLAND WITH CORRESPONDING COLD ANTICYCLONE OF 1036 MB OVER
    QUEBEC…LOCKING IN A COLD AIRMASS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

    MEANWHILE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOISTURE EXITS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY
    AND TAKES AIM AT NEW ENGLAND. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD
    AGREEMENT THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
    SUN/MON…LIKELY SUPPORTING SECONDARY LOW PRES TO DEVELOP JUST OFSHR
    AS PARENT LOW FADES IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD LIKELY
    KEEP COLD AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME. COLD
    AIR MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOWS OVER A PORTION
    OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A WINTRY MIX FARTHER SOUTH.

    AT THIS TIME RANGE IT/S WAY TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT PTYPES AND
    AMOUNTS. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT FOR US TO
    COMMUNICATE A MODERATE RISK FOR APPRECIABLE SNOW/ICE ACROSS INTERIOR
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN/MON. THUS FORECAST THEME FOR THIS TIME
    PERIOD REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT. IN ADDITION…
    ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGH SUN AND MON
    /BOSTON 11.2-11.7 FT MLLW/ SO THERE COULD BE A RISK OF MINOR COASTAL
    FLOODING EASTERN MA DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE.

  47. Tweets are rolling in from Todd at BZ and Pete B are talking about the storm trending much colder. It all depends on how far south that baby re-develops. need that high to stay in place and not drift away. I know Tom will remind us about the temps.

  48. The EURO in 2 or 3 days has gone from several hundred miles west of New England to just south of New England for next weekend. Hard to imagine that suddenly the trend is going to stop and hold for 6 days. So, I figure by Thursday, the forecast for the weekend will be mostly sunny and chilly, with precip down around Virginia or NC.

        1. Oh fun. A watcher. And I love that word “indeed”. I heard someone use it this morning and thought there is a lot packed into just one word. The problem is I can’t seem to limit my words. Once I start they just keep forming…….

          See what I mean

  49. “Hazardous Weather Outlook
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    425 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2012

    CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-122130-
    HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
    EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
    WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
    WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
    SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
    SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
    WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
    SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
    NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
    WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
    SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
    WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
    425 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2012

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
    CONNECTICUT…CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS…EASTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS…NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…SOUTHEASTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS…WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS…SOUTHERN NEW
    HAMPSHIRE…NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

    .DAY ONE…TONIGHT.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

    A PERIOD OF SNOW AND/OR ICE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
    BEST CHANCE OF THIS WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
    NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ON DURATION
    OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AND POTENTIAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN
    THE TIME RANGE HERE.

    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.”

    NWS is saying a mix for my area but I feel like nothing is really supporting the idea of snow any where inside of 495 that accumulates.. so lets just get this out of the way… its going to be quick mix to rain. for southern new england. higher elevations having the best luck of seeing accumulations … who wants to bet….

  50. I’d bet on that verifying matt. Anything else would be too radical of a change from what we have been seeing.

    2. yes guys they are already issuing hazardous weather for this. maybe it will vertify. just being pestimistic. because nothing has been going right this week for me so why start durring the weekend. expecially since i probably will not be able to track it even if it does happen do to college finals on monday through thursday …. I have one each of those days . it stinks.

  52. Euro shows promise but don’t bite yet, I think when it’s all settled it may end up slightly west of where it projected today but will c

  53. I would not be surprised if wintry precipitation happens in the far interior with potential system number one. Number two to me looks like the more interesting one at the moment.

  54. I think we should add BB to the list of topics we should not discuss in a public forum. Followed by politics, religion and global warming. 🙂

    1. Haha arguably the best, everyone across the country has an opinion about the Patriots and that’s great 🙂

    2. Can u imagine being a panthers fan where as a nation people could care less but Patriots are always a story and people r always talking about them and always have an opinion 🙂

      2. Maybe u took it wrong, I said haha to coastal saying bb should not be a topic and then I proceeded to say bb is arguably the best, sometimes these can come off wrong ha

        1. I just said it was respectful. That’s all folks. I enjoy that we do have respectful discussions here. And breathe 😉

  55. People are always talking about the Patroits since year in year out their a winning team who has the potential to go to a Super Bowl and win. I hope I could have that feeling again as a Cowboys fan like I had in the early to mid 90s.

    1. JJ I know that feeling. It goes way back to watching Williams play for the sox. I wonder if you ever get to have that exact feeling again or if it simply stands alone. Sort of like the one or two (or few) blizzards that you keep trying to recapture but they are never quite the same.

      1. I should add that no matter what the pats do I am not sure ill ever have that same feeling as the snow game against Oakland and then their Super Bowl win.

    2. Most cowboy fans are generally older, my friend from dallas that’s a dallas fan says its not like it used to be

  56. Vicki at least I saw them when the Super Bowl three times in my life. Some fans can’t say that and Chicago Cubs fans come to mind.

  57. So, looking at the CPC NAO outlook, it mostly looks to me as though its a sharp forecasted transition from negative NAO to neutral NAO from now to the 16th.

    However, the EURO NAO forecast has a dip to a slightly more negative NAO around the 16th. The 16th is next Saturday.

    I’d think the differences in NAO are important to producing a model’s solution. I wonder which NAO prediction is going to be more accurate ?

  58. I’m sorry to have gotten people started on the Patriots. This will be my last post on football. I don’t love BB as a person. In fact, in some ways the man strikes me as immoral. He’s certainly an odd duck. This said, I admire his brilliance. I like to see a thinker in charge. He lives and breathes football strategy. Most importantly, he’s like a field commander with 101 contingency plans. He’s the total opposite of so many coaches in the NFL. There are some half-wits out there (including Gainey in Buffalo, Turner in SD, Schwartz in Detroit, sadly you’d have to include Andy Reid as well even though I feel very sorry for him and his family) and several ex-coaches who are now commentators on TV (Herb Edwards being perhaps the poster child of a complete ignoramus). I really feel for teams that don’t have a leader, or someone who is on top of the game, rather than reacting to it.

    By the way, I’m hoping the models continue their colder trend. We shall see. We’ve seen this before. While I love HM’s enthusiasm, take everything he says with a grain of salt.

    1. For one I enjoyed the conversation. Thanks Joshua. And Hadi you didn’t fuel anything just gave a different perspective. It’s what makes the world go round

  60. Got to keep that high in a reasonable area to keep the storm south and feed in cold air. To me that is the key to what plays out, moreso than other factors. Still a week away from winter.

    2. Well I have to say as much as I like BB in the earlier discussion he doesn’t hold a candle or snow shovel to the real and original Boston BB. Welcome 🙂

    1. I think so just not sure if its the same set up. It just sounds eerily similar, high to the north, euro loses storm 5 days and within 48 bam!!

  68. Was a very busy day at work so I didn’t have much time to check in on my favorite blog. Still rooting for a white Christmas but won’t get my hopes up. Happy we have something to watch though and look forward to gaining more weather wisdom from all of you as we track this potential storm. Go Pats and welcome BB!

  71. Speaking of, I know I stated this before but Barry & I continue in agreement about a switch to a colder pattern at mid month. I believe the 8-14 should read below normal temps & precip as we get into a cold/dry pattern once again. Dry, meaning below normal precip, but containing a chance of some snow at times. Starting to see signs that the Sunday system will come in colder and be some kind of light snow event for parts of the region.

  72. Wow, the 0z GFS has a 965 mb bomb tracking near the benchmark for the storm about one week from now! All out blizzard for interior areas. As much as I’d love to see this, I think it’s safe to say this run is complete garbage. Very little run to run consistency right now with the GFS long range.

    One thing we can take from this and the model runs of late, we are going into a much more interesting weather pattern as we head into the second half of December. There will be several chances at snow and a white xmas is still very much on the table…

Comments are closed.