Shooting Stars, Bright Days

221 Comments

9:39PM

The headline deals with tonight through Saturday, in which high pressure will dominate (other than a quiet cold frontal passage Friday night). The mostly clear sky tonight allows a good view of the peak night of the Geminid Meteor Shower.

Beyond Saturday, things get more complicated, as we will find ourselves near a boundary of mild air to the south and a feed of cold air trying to press down from Canada. A series of storms will fire up along this boundary and bring some chances of precipitation from later in the weekend into the middle of next week. The details of these events remain elusive mainly due to the fact they are far enough out in time to not be able to tell the details, and also because computer guidance has been flip-floppy about the events. Given this, I’ll spare details in the forecast and stay generalized for now, fine tuning as they draw closer.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 44-49. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-32. Wind W 10-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH, shifting to N late.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 22-27. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Light snow by afternoon except rain or snow RI and southern MA. Light snow accumulation possible. Highs 32-37. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Low 32. High 42.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 35.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 18. High 33.

221 thoughts on “Shooting Stars, Bright Days”

  2. Thanks TK. We will see how things play out in the next few days. Can’t believe the month is half over already!

  3. CMC has the two storms cold with snow and then a clipper comes through at the end of the run
    gfs warm..
    euro to warm as well. but another system at the end that looks cooler at the end of the run
    i bet most in eastern mass will see rain after sundays extremely minor precipitation starved event. looking really light.

  4. Cool headline TK!

    I had extensive travel this past week and was able to experience an array of weather. For those who know their airport codes: circuit 1: BOS > MCO > TPA > ATL > RDU > BOS & circuit 2 BOS > MSP > SAN > LAX > PHX > DFW > MSP > BOS.

    Highlight: MSP had blowing snow and the temperature was 8°F on Monday AM on the heels of a major winter storm. Very pretty. Would love some of that in MetroWest.

    1. That’s interesting. I went out for 5 minutes and saw a few. 🙂

      Make sure you are looking high in the eastern sky for meteors that either streak overhead from east to west or drop toward the eastern horizon.

      1. Oh wow! I’m baking cookies and my deck is just outside my kitchen – think I’ll sneak some looks after the news 🙂 Thanks everyone, glad to be here – long time reader, former occasional poster to WBZ’s board. Probably met a few of you in person a few years ago at a party. I have the Chaston book but it’s more advanced than this armchair met can handle 😉

          1. Oh no, Vicki!! I went out just after I posted after 11pm and saw 4 in about 10-15 minutes, and then I went out again after 1am and saw 2. I was happy 🙂 Now, on to our next event – the upcoming storms!

  7. Thanks TK!!

    Lets see what tomorrow has in store. My gut tells md the 00z will be a big hit and then it will flip flopp again. And don’t get me started on the GFS.

  8. 0z NAM is extremely juicy for the Sunday-Monday storm. I realize its the NAM and probably overdone but its pumping out 1.25-1.5″ of precip for all of southern NE during this time period and the storm isn’t even done by the end of the run at hour 84. 850mb 0C line is close by near the VT/NH border as well. Southern VT/NH/ME would do well with 6″+ of snow with that run.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F14%2F2012+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_ptot&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    Looks like it is showing some secondary redevelopment near Nantucket on Monday. Probably out to lunch but something to keep an eye on.

  9. Thanks TK for the update. Even though you are forecasting the late period in general terms, the fact that you have snow “showers” for midweek, are you leaning toward more offshore if not OTS?

  11. Hadi-Answer to your earlier question 12z ECMWF ENS pushes 2m temps 35+ to Vermont / Canadian border at 6z Wednesday 12/19. Not sure what you saw. Over cooked low comes up over NW CT and RI. Not ideal for snow in SNE….

    NAM=Not Applicable Model. It shows front end snow followed by an inch of rain in SNE.

    All I can say folks is forecasting and meteorology is not about model runs. It is about interpreting the model output and applying it sensibly to current atmospheric conditions, climate trends and remembering that no two storms, seasons, or years are alike.

    1. Feel like I’ve read your definition of forecasting a bunch throughout the past few weeks, I think it’s starting to sink in 🙂

  12. Hadi when I say low comes up over CT and RI that is ECMWF forecast, not what I think will happen.

    My forecast right now for the Sunday-Wednesday time frame is light snow transitioning to light rain and then scattered rain showers transition to isolated snow showers Wednesday. Temps rising from mid 30’s to mid 40’s before falling back to the mid 30’s during that time period. Generally cloudy skies giving way to a more clouds then sun sky by mid-week. Sharply cooler late in the week. No significant snow accumulation in coastal, urban, and suburban areas of SNE.

      1. I’m thinking Framingham is too lit up even though I’m well away from the Route 9 area and closer to the Sudbury/Wayland line. Glad you both had a good show!

    2. they lit up my sky around 11-2. 3 time i saw meteors last time was up in Maine the other was when i went skiing at killingtion.

      also these storms for next week look like they are not goin to give us anything 🙁

  14. 0Z GFS is fairly juicy for SNE Sunday and Monday as well with 0.5-1″ of precip and secondary redevelopment south of LI. Too warm for snow but perhaps this becomes a little more than just a light precip event.

    Midweek storm is OTS but bombs out over the ocean, trough becomes negatively tilted, and the storm retrogrades back west, clobbering eastern Maine with a snowstorm. We’ll see what happens with the Euro and Canadian but I would not write the second storm off yet – still a long ways to go.

  16. 00z Euro has gone off its rocker. I hate when this happens because when you lose your most reliable model you have to watch it like a hawk to see when it gets back on track, and choose the right time to start believing it again.

    GFS from 00z is favored this time around.

  18. Premise :

    You are the TV Met this morning on one of the major Boston stations …….You will have same responsibilities to give a 7 day forecast while having to explain its reasoning some, you must maintain credibility with your viewers and in the back of your mind, maybe you are trying to have a presentation thats got more edge than your colleagues on the other stations (at least thats what they keep saying in production mtgs)

    Question :

    Given the excellent posts above, what would you tell your viewers this morning about this coming Sunday through next Thursday ?

    1. As a listener (I know it’s the opposite of what you asked) I like what JR said this morning. Maybe a dusting, turning to rain, might end with a dusting and north of Route 2 will see the snow. He said not enough cold air but it’s early yet so stay tuned. It keeps me coming back but doesn’t come across as hype— just honest discussion.

    1. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

      ECMWF forecasted solution for later next week would be monster storm for New england into pa and NJ. Would lock up white Christmas there

  20. Thanks JMA. I totally agree about the models and I have significantly improved over the years. I have gone from really paying attention to the models to more evaluating what else is going on around us. I swear when I looked at the ensembles it had it in a different location but clearly not 🙂

  21. I think the pattern is so zonal and no ridging out west. Nearly impossible to get anything major snow on the east coast with that set up.

  22. The NWS is not sure for next weeks storm.

    TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY… THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR A STRONG
    COASTAL STORM. MODEL SPREAD IS HUGE ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
    SYSTEM…BUT LEANING TO A TRACK CLOSE TO THE COAST AT THIS POINT.
    THE OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TOO FAR EAST WHEN COMPARED TO ITS
    ENSEMBLES AND OTHER GUIDANCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
    FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW…BUT PRECIP TYPES ARE
    VERY UNCERTAIN AT

  23. The flow really should change as we get into late month. I think that is when things get going in full force. I think the cold from Alaska will release and blocking will establish itself.

  24. these storms are going to be rain in my area probably even the sunday storm looks to start later and thus making most of the precipitation fall as rain over most of eastern mass

  25. Thanks, TK!

    And welcome Flowergirl75!

    I read most of the posts from yesterday and today and I am not going to make a guess on what will happen – I usually do, and usually from “gut feelings” but this time I just can’t tell and will leave it up to all the pros here. Everyone have a great wknd. – I prob’ly will post at some point, not sure.

    1. Hi rainshine. I am also having trouble with those “gut feelings” with this storm. Maybe our “guts” are as confused as the models 😉

      Have a wonderful weekend and hope to see you here !!

  26. Yes I think it impacts the ridging out west and without that ridge storms just flow accross the country with pacific mild air.

  27. 0Z Euro:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif

    06Z GFS

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F14%2F2012+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=117&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    Other than intensity, they are not that far off. Sure the GFS is more West and less
    intense, but they generally have the same idea.

    These models have been all over the map (sorry).

    Inside runner, OTS, inside runner, Coastal hugger. Make up your mind already.

    Still not handling everything just yet.

    One thing, however, appears fairly clear at this point. Sure doesn’t look like we’ll get any snow. 😀

        1. LOL…it is definitely true. You know you are addicted to the blog when you have to leave your Kindle next to your bed so you can check the minute your eyes open in the morning. 🙂

          1. I have decided eReaders are the best idea ever — because I can easily flip to this blog to see what’s happening.

            1. Agreed. I have this blog bookmarked on my iPhone browser. One of three sites I check each morning without fail – must read.

  29. Wxrisk.com
    BRIEF COMMENT ON 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE..

    1 it still shows major east coast low dec 18-19 and it has this Low closer to the coast than the regular Euro

    2 it still has the arctic cold front… and it still develops a new Low on the front that brings SNOW to all of New England — even into NYC NJ and PHL.

    3 winds behind the front get strong … heavy lake effect snows

    4 A major piece of energy in the southern Jet stream moves into southern CALIF and the sw states DEC 22-23. This feature moves east across the Lower Plains into the TN valley and the SE/ Middle Atlantic. With the BLOCK still in place this overall pattern screams for significant eastern US snowstorm– for Lower Midwest and from western NC most of VA to New England DEC 26-27

    5 still a long way out but so far I Like what I see. Over the next 7 days models will “play games ” with the Block in the Jet stream over eastern and central Canada. When the Block is weaker… the eastern US will turn milder … when it is stringer the eastern us stays colder and any system over TX and OK will stay sout

  31. there are a possibility of a total of three storms. storm one sunday late afternoon-monday snow to rain . think areas south of the pike and inside of 495 will see mainly rain with both systems. with areas north of the pike and outside of 495 and south of rt 2 will see snow to an icy mix for the first storm. and will see a mix of rain and snow the second storm.. areas north of rt 2 will see mainly snow the first event. the second storm will see a wintery mix north of rt 2
    second storm tuesday and wednesday more rain but changing to snow/mix at the end
    third storm friday and saturday as a mix.
    for me i am thinking all of this is going to be more of a series of rain storms for areas inside of 495 and south of the pike but its to early to say exactly and the models are all over the place. I beleive that only a few models are actually saying that the third storm will actually hit us. One thing for sure its getting colder… stay warm 🙂

  32. I think we can pretty much forget about much next week here in coastal areas, but as always on to the next chance which is late next weekend 🙂 per the EURO.

  33. I tried to post this last night. Came home yesterday for lunch and while eating
    noticed movement in the hemlock tree outside of our kitchen window. At first I thought it was a squirrel, then I thought a raccoon. I walked over to the window and saw a hugh bird. Now I was thinking hawk or eagle. Then it turned it’s head to reveal this:

    http://home.comcast.net/~dhinchli/pwpimages/OWL.JPG

          2. i live inside of 495 in billerica Huge marshland and woods behind my house, see deer, hawks,bats, river otters beavers, turtles ,frogs snakes and several other animials.

    3. How incredible. I thought a boreel (sp) owl but they are pretty small. I’ve only ever seen owls twice in the wild.

      1. We adopt one at a Virginia wildlife facility every year in the name of our grandkids. I just showed my grandson who is very excited but thinks you should give him a name

        1. I’ve been hearing what I believe are Great Horned Owls for about a year here in Chelmsford at night. I just went to http://www.allaboutbirds.org, which is the Cornell Lab of Ornithology to hear the sound in confirmation. Although your Barred Owl is beautiful, their hoots are scary sounding to me 🙂 So cool to have these majestic birds in our neighborhoods!

    4. What a beautiful bird! We live in the woods too – I have never seen an owl around here before. But I have heard them at night, usually during the summer.

    2. My heart is so heavy right now as I think of my little boys sitting in their schools this morning. You think you send your kids off to school and they will be safe. My thoughts and prayers are with all of the victims of this senseless act of violence.

      1. Sue I too thought of my grandson. I heard the news on my way home and haven’t been able to stop the tears. They are little more than babies. My heart aches for their families.

    1. OMG, i had no idea what everyone was talking about till now. And all I had to comment on was the 12Z EURO. I feel like a dope now 🙁 What a senseless act of violence

  38. I know this isn’t weather related but weather to me should take a back seat. My thoughts and prayers are with the families in Newton, CT. 18 of the 27 people killed were children. I could just imgaine what those parents are going through putting their kids on the bus or dropping them off at school for what would be the last time. I don’t have kids but I don’t know how you recover for something like this and holiday season is going to be very very sad for these families.

    1. I don’t think you do recover. As a mom of two boys, ages 4 and 6, I feel sorrow, anger, fear, and genuine heartache right now. Words cannot describe how much I can not wait to hug those two little cherubs tonight. Rest in peace little ones. Heaven has received some amazing angels today.

  41. Hey Everyone,

    What a terrible day. So sad to see such a senseless shooting. I feel for those parents and children. I’ve been watching the news it’s a crazy time.

    2. Same here Coastal I need a distraction from all this. I’m no expert but it looked a little colder for sunday into monday but with less precip. The storm for mid week looked weaker and just sat and spun right over MA. Any other thoughts??

  43. I feel sick and so sad – both my husband and me couldn’t help it, we cried. We never had children – but we feel for these people. My thoughts and prayers are with all affected.

    What is wrong with society today??

  44. got home today and saw some really sad news which angered me. and so close to christmas 🙁
    My sincere condolences to the children and parents effected by this inhuman act
    the days of seeing kids playing in the front yards, woods, streets are probably gone.
    There are some really sick inhumane people now a days. 🙁

  46. Sitting in my office this morning in Framingham when a close colleague walked in and said his wife just called and their two kids in elementary school were in lockdown because of a shooting in their school, no word on their status. My heart stopped, I’m still shaking. He headed home to CT, luckily his two were ok and home safe by late morning, but I can’t imagine the trauma and long term impact. They have been preparing to relocate, I don’t see how they could ever go back.
    Our thoughts with all the families.
    Tom

    1. I tried to read your post to my daughter and couldn’t even get the first few words out. I cannot begin to imagine the horror he felt.

  47. I will make sure I hug my two little guys that much more tonight!!

    On a lighter side, the NWS is also very confused about the mid week storm. I think the Sunday-Monday event here in the coastal plain is pretty much a done deal.

  48. My mom always called the crescent moon God’s fingernail. Hence the picture beside my name. Tonight we have a spectacular crescent moon. I think Sue is right that Heaven received some amazing littlest angels today.

    1. So true !! You know, between being a teacher of many years of amazing students and having two young ones of my own, this has been one tough afternoon !!!!!

      I think I need to babble about the weather.

        1. Its hard……….Of course the #1 priority is trying to further the academics in your core subject.

          But, if your a teacher that loves your job, you care about kids !!!! I have balled my eyes out a few times since learning about this. I just cant comprehend any human being that would want to do any harm, whatsoever, to kids.

      2. Yes please let’s do that. No disrespect but this one is tough to swallow. Having a son in second grade it disturbs me greatly, an elementary school is so damn innocent, of all places. So the Sunday event what’s the scoop for Boston. Some minor accumulation or all rain.

    2. What a crescent moon. And as I was looking at it, I had to stop and flash at two deer from crossing the street.

      1. Husband said as he drove home on the pike there were two contrails forming a crooked cross right next to the moon. The sun had turned them pink

  49. I see others are thinking like me….. I almost need a distraction, so here goes…..

    I think there’s a chance Logan comes close or beats Dec. 2011 temp anomaly. Why ?….

    1) its already sitting around 4.5F above normal.

    2) think about the next 5 days starting Sunday, when the avg low is 29F, probably falling to 28F. Well, most of the night’s lows could be near 38F or 39F at Logan and thus even if the high is right at normal, thats a daily avg that will be +5F above average.

    1. Yes, truly unbelievable. For those who say this December is different in NE, I beg to differ. It’s not looking good for winter people like myself.

      But, weather is the last thing on my mind at this point. The awful shooting is just making me sick. I could not eat today. That’s how sick and mad I was and am. I’ve eaten a little take-out, but I feel so badly.

  50. Is that 50’s I’m seeing on the models for Mon and Tue with rain 🙁 And that 2nd storm is a pretender, have a good night everyone

  51. What a day today. I gave my daughter a hug tonight as soon as i walked in the door. I feel for all of those parents tonight who are going through a living hell of losing their child from this senseless act.

    1. Truly one of the most sickening days, especially when you consider the children were all 5-10 years old..

    2. My daughter and SIL and 5 yr old grandson just pulled their mattress into their family room. They are sleeping out there next to their tree. They didnt want to let their little guy go. It’s a good night to hug your kids and all of your loves ones

      1. Yes it is Vicki. We all worry about and spend so much time in our lives on some things that don’t really matter in the end. People need to relax and take time out to be with their family and friends too. It just goes to show that you never know what each day will bring.

  52. I just can’t believe as a human race we can’t figure this stuff out. It makes me sick to think about all those families. This time of year should be a joyous time for everyone. I gave both my boys extra hugs tonight.

    1. One of the worst afternoons I’ve ever had. No, it did not affect me personally. But, I felt saddened (in tears) and angry. Can one imagine the hell the parents now must endure.

      We will always have deranged people, but why are they resorting to such acts of senseless violence? I don’t have an answer. But, I am appalled at some of the symptoms of a society hung up on guns and weaponry. Why are our TV shows constantly showing death and mayhem? Even during prime time when kids are watching. I’ve lived in other countries and watched TV there. No other country I’ve lived in glorifies violence on TV, enjoys it, almost relishes it, as much as we do. We censor bad words and bare breasts (and I guess there’s good reason for that), but we’ve done nothing to reduce the levels of violence in many of our shows. This enhances an already gun-crazed society. I think the first order of business is an executive decree to ban all assault rifles and machine guns, along with magazine clips containing more than, say, 6 or 12 bullets. No debate is needed on this issue. In fact, to debate it is immoral, in my view. The second amendment is about gun ownership, yes. This can be protected. It is not about effectively having a military arsenal at home, and being able to buy these kinds of weapons as easily in many cases as a six-pack.

      1. Joshua…my parents grew up in the 1930’s and 40’s and just about every Saturday afternoon as kids they would go to the matinees and see mostly Westerns. They would call them “shoot’em ups”. I guess that was the lingo back then.

        Amazing how there was nowhere near the level of violence like today, so I can’t blame today’s TV shows and movies but so much.

      2. Joshua as I’ve said my husband like you lived outside of this country a good portion of his life. Your comments mirror his. And I agree with the ban on all assault rifles and then much more

  54. The only chance of 50’s is when the low moves through and drags warm air for a very short time. If that happens it will not be long lives so I don’t consider it 50’s for Monday and Tuesday.

  55. I remember back in the day even in high school, the worst type of violence was a fistfight outside in the school yard or just off school property usually over absolutely nothing serious. I wish I knew what went wrong with society during the last few decades. 🙁

    We have now hit a new low when even our elementary schools are no longer safe. 🙁

    1. I just can’t understand how anyone can kill a child. You really have to have something wrong with you to do something like that.

  56. Joshua I can’t agree with you more. Add video games to the list as to me they are the most violent. I have lived all over the world and in no country that I know do they encounter these types of event on a regular basis. The 2nd ammendmant was in place when we were living in a time of militia. It’s a very different time and as a nation we must examine our society and what causes us to behave this way.

  57. Violent video games is a factor. The reality tv, material on the Internet and tv programming. I also think parenting skills is a all time low and in addition our instant gratification that most of us expect.

    1. Additional factors:
      Moral relativism
      Broken families
      Poverty
      Secularism
      The welfare state and our sense of purpose

      Blaming it solely on guns doesn’t solve anything

      Imho

  58. I don’t play video games but I see people playing them and they are so violent. They glorify violence like nothing I have seen.

  60. I have no problem whatsoever continuing the discussion over today’s shooting through tomorrow. Unless TK says otherwise, from my point of view, there are no real snow threats in the foreseeable future through Christmas. There is still too much warmth within the CONUS…Alaska will not release its cold to us anytime soon.

    Today is my mother’s birthday…she is 83 years young! 🙂

    1. Happy birthday to your Mom.

      Looking at Brett Anderson’s post of the long range Euro for the next few weeks. Not too many,aces colder than normal.

    1. I saw no weather today. So will all three system’s be snowfree for Boston,south. Seems people thinking snow for Sunday.

  62. I guess I will be fortunate up on Maine as expect snow to be note ground up there. I would not count out snow before Xmas yet. I gtd cold air will be on the move soon.

  63. Late into December and into January the cold will here and the blocking will be conducive for storm development.

  64. Is current thinking that there will be rain and not snow for inside 495 on Sunday. And does anyone have an approximate time frame? We are supposed to head to Brookline for lunch and I prefer not to drive if there is a snow threat. Thank you.

    Before heading to sleep I’d like to say that I am very grateful for the friends I have made here. I know many of us have not met but we share a common love and through that are learning about each other. Thank you all and a special thanks to TK for bringing us all together.

  65. Thank you Vicki and North for your kind comments of my mother’s birthday. 🙂 I was outside finishing up the last leaf raking and when I came in she was crying and told me about the shooting of those little kids. I hate seeing her cry as it is, but of all days…her birthday will now be remembered for such senseless violence. 🙁

    1. I learned of the tragedy from my mother too. She called me at work to tell me. She was sad as well. This hit a lot of people very hard and I think the ages of the children even made it harder to hear.

    2. Happy Birthday to your mom Philip.
      Today your heart goes out to the families who lost someone today. I don’t know if you are parent how you recover from
      something like this putting your kids on the bus or dropping them off at school for what would be the last time. This is a quiet
      town in CT with a population of about 27,000 people in northern fairfield county where this happened.

  66. Channel 7 calling for an inch in Boston before changeover. Oldsalty you there, we need too take a look at this. I think the cold air hangs around and may surprise us. Anybody there.

    1. i do not think anyone inside of 495 will get much maybe coatings the first storm. and the other storms look either wet or not even effecting us.

    1. Barry has all snow (albeit snow showers) for Wednesday. The other mets have warm solutions for the entire week with mostly rain.

      Even Barry has rain for Friday’s storm.

  68. Hi all. I’ve been under the weather for a few days with a cold virus that I could no longer escape. Get it out of the way now, be well for Christmas. Still lots to do.

    I have no issue whatsoever with any of you discussing the tragic events here. It may be a weather blog but it also serves as a common “meeting place” to exchange chat on anything. It just happens to be 99% weather given the purpose of its creation. That doesn’t and shouldn’t prevent discussions of daily events that impact us one way or another. Though we may not be directly impacted as the families that have lost children (and adults) have been, we are still impacted by such events, significantly. Talking about it is a way to heal. I realize some of you may need to depart from the subject and just focus on weather. Do that too. None of us should judge how any one else chooses to handle it. Talking about weather does not make you cold and unfeeling toward the events. Deal with it in whatever way you need. That’s all that matters here. In time, we all heal and move forward and get back to the “daily routine” but we don’t forget. The weather will go on, day after day, and we’ll continue to chat about it. WHW is not going anywhere.

    After a bit of rest, I will be back in the morning to update the blog with the latest thoughts on the weather for the coming week.

    Thank you all for being here, and this goes not only for all of you that regularly participate in chatting here, but also to all of you that just read the blog entries and comments.

    Peace 🙂

    2. Yes thank you for giving us this forum. I hope you feel better soon. Not fun to be sick before or during the holidays!

      1. Not fun, but I’m thankful that it isn’t worse than it is. I’ll be 100% days before Christmas. 🙂

      1. I am alternating rest with a few needed activities this weekend, nothing too rigorous, though I am taking a walk through the woods of the Middlesex Fells Reservation this afternoon with my son (the trails with the observation tower just off Route 93 in Stoneham MA – a favorite spot of mine). We covered Willards Woods in Lexington last weekend and the back trails behind Horn Pond (Lake Innatou) in Woburn on the day of the light snow (December 1). In all the hustle of this season I so love getting out for an hour or 2 and just walking in these places.

  69. (to Linda from previous blog entry in case you missed my reply there: thank you and hope you continue to enjoy the blog! comment any time!)

  70. Good Morning,

    Another sleepless night ahhh….

    I think the NAM might be handling things better compared to gfs and euro. Its been trending a bit colder for sunday night and monday storm and has the low for tuesday into wednesday moving just off the coast of new england for ooz and o6z runs. Still looks like a mostly rain event on the coast but looks like its being more consistent. Anyone else see the same thing?

    1. We need to be cautious of the NAM outside 48 hours. Generally very good model once you get 48 and inside (though it can run wet). Even with some cold air at the surface we may scour out any chill just above.

  71. Continuing my thinking, temp doesn’t ever get below freezing in and around boston during the entire event, as we might see a few wet snowflakes there will be no accumulation bye bye 🙂

  72. The 6z gas just looks awful for snow chances for the whole run. Just one inside running and generally disorganized storm after another. The overall pattern just looks crappy. At best, the interior might pick up an inch or so from overrunning with each one of these. I should just self impose a gag order on model watching until Jan. sometime. (yeah right!)

  73. Joe Joyce at 6:30 am.
    Sun: Snow early am, mixes to sleet, freezing rain and rain. No accumulation in Boston Metro. Some accumulation outside 495. Rain at Foxboro for the game.

    Showery early Mon am. Rest of week kind of messy/wet. Joe did mention that possible Sat storm could go from rain to snow but waaaaaaaaaaaay to early to say anything substantive.

  75. December 2012 temp anomolies thru 12/14 from around the Continental US ……

    Caribou, ME : + 3.2F, Albany, NY : + 4.6F, Pittsburgh, PA : + 8.1F,

    St. Louis, MO : + 11.0F, Orlando, FL : +5.9F, Raleigh Durham, NC : +8.2 F,

    Oklahoma City, OK : + 6.4F, Minneapolis, MN : +7.4F, Idaho Falls, ID : +12.6 F,

    Tuscon, AZ : + 5.0F, Reno, NV : +5.4F, Seattle, WA : +2.8 F

    All data courtesy of Taunton NWS climate section.

  77. Retrac you know better than to look at a 6 z GFS for long range forecast :). 00z GFS is much nicer looking.

    If anyone is looking for a white Xmas I am thinking Saturdays storm will pack a punch from SNH into Maine.

    2. Honest to goodness, I cant find one. Sometimes, the Gulf Coast area can have the negative anomaly, but not this time.

      1. HM had an interesting stat on one of his blogs this past week that the only areas in the CONUS that are running below normal in Dec were combined smaller than the state of RI

  80. To the comment about the NAM just reading the NWS discussion out of Upton and they feel it is a good model when it comes to cold air damming situations.

  81. Hey al,

    I’ve been sick and traveling…missed this blog for all these months! Looking forward to jumping back into it! Not seeing much out of these events…not even sure the Tue/Wed storm will be anything substantive in terms of rain.

  82. So, from everything I am hearing, nxt. wk. is going to be a messy week weatherwise but nothing of any major significance? Some forecasts are going for just rain – don’t remember who right now but maybe that is for SNE.

  83. Mostly wet or not too much white for next week. Of course that could change but I would not have high hopes for a white Christams this year. Hopefully winter will show up after Christmas and to kick of 2013.

  84. I’d rather it pour rain than freezing rain and sleet. It’s like, if it’s not going to snow don’t give us the “junk” storms.

  85. We start going the other way soon on length of day. Granted, in small amounts at first but I like the thought of it coming back in our favor for the next six months.

    1. Sun angle changes direction. Longer days make it more challenging for snow beyond february. Hopefully snow chances increase soon. I do feel, however, that next weekend’s storm could end up more white than wet. That’s likely our chance for a white xmas. We will see.

      1. Usually after mid Feb the snow disappears quickly if it snows and at that time we are gaining 3-4 min a day of daylight

  89. How telling is it to the warmth in the US that even to the north and northwest of a low’s track in the central part of the Country….and we’re talking about Minneapolis, MN…not Oklahoma City……. that in mid-December……its RAINING !!

Comments are closed.