Saturday Update

187 Comments

12:17PM

Short discussion now, full discussion next update…

The next several days will be a transition period between the mild pattern and the return to the pattern of November. It will feature the passage of 3 low pressure systems during the transition. None of these at the moment look like they have a great chance of putting down snow that will hang around for Christmas, but since that day itself is still 10 days away, we absolutely cannot discount the possibility of a White Christmas in southern New England, though I would say the percentage chance lies around that of climatology, at best.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind N around 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing cloudiness. Lows in the 20s. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY:  Cloudy. Snow and sleet developing except some rain near the South Coast. Precipitation changing to rain from south to north late in the day and at night. Minor accumulation of up to 1 or 2 inches may occur especially higher elevations north of the Mass Pike. Highs 35-40. Wind NE to E 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Drizzle and patchy fog. Chance of light rain. Low 35. High 45.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. AM rain. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 49.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 43.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain AM. Variably cloudy with snow showers PM. Temperatures falling from the 40s through the 30s.

187 thoughts on “Saturday Update”

  1. Thanks TK – but please take time to rest….if that’s possible this time of year.

    I know no two seasons are alike and that no two storms are alike but I was curious to see if two discussion patterns were alike so went back to last December’s blogs. I admit to checking very quickly. I had to check a few times to make sure I was actually in 2011 and not 2012 as it sounded very familiar. On December 8 you said the Halycon days were a bit early, TK. On December 22 your blog title was Thundery Solstice. And a second post on Dec 22 was entitled “Trying So Hard” and the first paragraph read……”It’s like the atmosphere is trying to snow, but just can’t seem to do so in a meaningful way. We’ll likely have a few more so-close-yet-so-far episodes over the next few days…”

    No correlation as I am more than hopeful that things will change but interesting nonetheless……..well at least to me 😉

    1. Even patterns that are not the same can yield the same result. It becomes easy at that point to say this is the same pattern as the other one. 🙂

      Trust me, it’s not the same pattern is last year.

      1. Got that TK. All I meant was the discussion was nearly identical but certainly is no indication of what will happen in coming months or that the same causes existed.

  3. Thanks, TK, for all the good work you put in. Keeping us informed and maintaining this blog. I appreciate it, as I’m sure all of us do.

    Tom, I’m posting a reply on this update rather than TK’s previous post. Your anomaly data are very interesting. My daughter is in Minneapolis/St. Paul, and has experienced 3 rain events (and 1 snow event) this month. Rain in Minneapolis in December is practically unheard of, let alone 3 rain events. It’s unbelievable, really, how warm this winter is turning out. It could all change, but I’m very skeptical about that. I do feel that December patterns are usually telling, both in good old-fashioned winters like 95/96, and bad nothing winters like 2011/2012.

    1. December patterns can be telling, but November ones are almost always moreso. November was cold/dry and even tho so far December is milder than I expected I still did not expect much snow this month and I also had forecast a cold/dry January. We will see how that turns out.

  4. Thanks tk. I know how you feel, woke up Monday same thing, slowly feeling better. Huge Xmas party tonight, 100 people at my buddy’s home. So no accumulation in Boston at all or can I count on a little. I have a contractor here on Monday laying hardwood flooring. Could use the dough.

  5. Didn’t have a chance to say anything about yesterday’s events. So, so sad.
    I just can’t believe that a human being could perpetrate such a crime.
    I can’t imagine what those parents are going through.

    Our daughter is a school teacher and actually goes through lock down training
    for just this type of situation. Pretty scary.

    Although the battle to BAN all guns will never happen (as much as I personally wish it would!), I at least hope that this could lead to the total and complete ban of assault rifles and weapons. No one needs these killing machines!

    1. Agree. I know people have different opinions about firearms, but there is no need for assault rifles.

      1. Son as I’ve said is in law enforcement and he doesn’t even have his LTC. There is definitely no need for assault rifles.

  6. On the weather front, my UGH meter just went off scale and exploded into
    a zillion pieces. What good is the negative NAO doing us? No cold air to speak of?
    Even today is WARMER than forecast. It’s like a Spring day out there and I just came in from being out. All of these inside runners & Lakes cutters coming at us. Pathetic!

    I want a White Christmas. I don’t see it happening.

    GFS shows some promise around the 27th (too late of course!), but we know what that means. GFS = Good for S**** And that isn’t S for snow! 😀

    1. The afternoons have been nice lately O.S.

      The overall dryness has helped get temps pretty nice during the day.

    2. I hear where you’re coming from. I just don’t see much cold air anywhere in the lower 48 except in isolated pockets and bubbles.

  7. 12Z Precip at 156 Hours, Canadian:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=156

    12Z 850Mb Temperature at 156 Hours, Canadian:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=TT850&hh=156&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=156&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    This spells YUCK! What a RAINORAMA!

    Well, perhaps the pattern isn’t the same as last December and NAO isn’t the same either, but sure as bleepedy, bleep, bleep!!! The results are the same, at least so far. 😀 😀 😀

    1. You’re not realistic enough! My Ugh Meter on a scale of 1 to 10, is at 15. 😀

      Last year was bad enough. We don’t need this continuing into this Winter as well. Euro shows some serious cold spilling in here in about 10 days. We’ll see.

        1. Exactly. And no storm to go with it. “Perhaps” something
          late the day after Christmas or next day, which of course it too late. But should it happen, we’ll take it.

  9. I am hoping for a Christmas miracle and the 3rd storm trends colder which is why the UGH meter is not at 10.

  10. We’re just locked in an unfavorable pattern gang. That’s the crude reality. If and when it breaks….who knows. Just have to hang in there for now. Fortunately it’s not the end of February yet.

  11. Lets see where we are at the end of January beginning of February before we start labeling the winter of 12-13.

  12. went to get our christmas tree. last year we had trouble putting it all on one tree in the living room. alot of ornaments were nautical. so we got a second tree for the dining room. theme for the tree is going to be nautical with blue and white lights

      1. i have given my dad these light houses for 13 years. one every christmas. then last year they stopped the series. now there is a new series out so i got the first light house of the series.

        1. Matt you gave me happy tears. What a wonderful collection for your dad, for you to know you have made it possible for him and to now have a special tree for display. I read your post to my daughter. Very special indeed

          1. we also have made a village .. adding things every year for 6 years.. Now takes up the other side of the same room.

  13. Just got back from a 5 on 5 of flag football, it was a nice day, hope everyone enjoyed it!! Go Patriots!!

    1. The air feels great. I was thinking of a fire in the fore pit but no one wanted to join me. Go figure. I used to love flag football. Except I’m competitive and tended to forget not to tackle. 🙂

  16. Just watching the Weather Channel and now they have Storm Con – rating things like when to put up winter storm warnings – different parts of the country have different criteria for a warning to be put up, which makes sense. So, not only do we have names for winter storms we have Storm Con 1, 2, etc. Like the Tor Con for tornadoes. (sigh). Hey, I s’pose if it helps, it’s a good thing. But re: names for winter storms – I don’t even want to talk about it.

    2. I can see it now….
      The sirens going off at TWC and a loudspeaker announcement:
      “STORM CON 4”, “STORM CON 4″, STORM CON 4” 😀 😀 😀
      Scramble all METS!

  17. Even my UGH! meter is getting to dangerous levels at Lyndon as the ground is bare. Not expecting a whole lot of snow during the next few days.

        1. thats not even funny … thats my favorite mountain of all of the ski areas. and thats what i see and its almost CHRISTMAS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! not good

  18. This TWC Con stuff is laughable. I don’t know what they are thinking.

    Torcon, now Stormcon??? huh? Why don’t they just go all out!
    How about:

    Snow Storm = SNOCON
    Ice Storm = ICECON
    Thunderstorm = TCON or THUNCON
    Hurricane = HURCON or HURRICON
    Earth Quake = QUAKECON
    Sun Spots = SUNCON
    WaterSpout = SPOUTCON or WATERCON
    Tsunami = WAVECON
    Drought = DROUGHTCON
    Dust Storm = DUSTCON
    Traffic Jam = GRIDCON or STUCKCON
    Wild Fire = FIRECON or SMOKEYTHEBEARCON
    Fog = FOGCON
    Frost = FROSTCON or SCRAPECON
    WindChille = SHIVERCON
    Flood = FLOODCON or WETCON

    AH, that’s enough. It’s pure silliness!
    😀

    2. I like TSUNAMICON instead of WAVECON.

      How about HYPECON?

      And for a snack they can serve POPCON (bad Boston accent joke). 😛

  19. Nothing this week, but I really believe cold is coming and will stick around. Whether we get a storm will be a big question but the cold will be here.

    My in laws expecting 5-10 inches by Tuesday.

  20. Here is the 18z GFS, granted its an 18z GFS but I believe this is a good opportunity.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121215%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=288&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F15%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=52&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  21. That looks awesome but I think there is a better chance of seeing rain next week than the solution the 18z GFS has.

  22. That 18z GFS is for later in the month. Also the NAO looks to be a west based NAO and ridging out west looks better in the long range.

  23. Logan has now hit double digit rainfall deficit = -10.07″

    However, with all the rain events coming up next week this should be knocked down considerably. Of course snow events would be just as good but, unfortunately…oh well.

  24. Frosty night out in Marshfield. Had a chance to stand around a nice outdoor fire for a bit…gazing up, some low clouds are beginning to move in from the ocean.

    What a beautiful early winter day today was weatherwise.

    1. Awwww I’m envious. I wanted to have an outdoor fire last night but couldn’t convince anyone to join me. Sure sounds fun Tom

  25. Has Logan’s temp already bottomed event for event #1 ? A few hours at 34F, it has risen to 35F at 10pm and the wind is lightly out of the east.

    1. Yeah it is… 00z gfs looks for tues & wed like the low is moving a bit east although still rain on the coast and inland but not as warm and maybe a sign of a trend??

    2. That would be over a foot at Lyndon if the 00z NAM verified down to the penny. I’m just going to cross my fingers .

    2. Interesting the temp contrasts this morning, even along the coast.

      Portland, ME and Portsmouth, NH : 20F/5F and 24F/11F … North Wind

      Logan : 36F/25F … East Wind.

  28. Is it still supposed to be storming tonight? There is a candlelight vigil I’d like to attend but there are some windy, back roads between here and there

    1. I think you can count on some chilly dampness ….. Think it would be too mild aloft for snow and a decent chance it will be a bit above freezing by evening at the surface.

  29. Logan avgs :

    Today 41/28 ….. Thursday ….. 40/26

    We’ll guess some hi/lo temps for this period ….

    Today : 41/34. Monday : 44/40. Tuesday 48/41. Wednesday 45/36. Thurs 43/33

    Projected
    Departures + 3. +9 +11 +7. +5

    I dont believe any long range model that delivers cold air as it goes out beyond say, day 8. Didnt happen all of last winter and since late November, it hasnt happen this year…in the northeast or anywhere in the lower 48. I cant believe it, but there is a chance of finishing Dec. 12 with a bigger temp departure than Dec. 11 (+5.3 F).

    1. I agree, Tom. I’m going out on a limb and will say the real cold ain’t coming this year. Sadly, like last year, the long-range forecasts keep delaying any real cold (I completely discount nights in the mid to upper 20s – that is not cold!), and the temps just keep climbing. So, for instance, if you looked at yesterday’s forecast on a typical weather website for Christmas day, it said 34 during the day, now it says 38. This has happened consistently since late November. My guess is it will be around 40 on Christmas, which isn’t abnormally warm at all. But, given the abnormally warm December it’s not exactly going to put a dent into the temperature anomaly.

  31. Ugh Meter still broken………

    A parade of huggers and cutters! That’s all I see.

    Even that juicy GFS one for after Christmas, now looks to be a cutter.

    Where’s the Beef? err….. Cold?

    While I’m complaining, where’s the radar echos for today’s event?
    They’re practically non-existent.

    Nice period of Negative NAO. What good is it? Last year it was the Positive NAO.
    Either way, the results are the same.

    On the bright side, should be a great Patriot’s game tonight!! 😀

  32. god darnit for once can the gfs be correct about the long range 😀 chrismas day it self… snow showers? its a long shot but hay anything is possible 😀

  34. Packers vs Bears in Chicago, close to 50 deg, no snow on the ground, mid dec…there’s something seriously wrong with that!

  35. We got a zonal flow across the country with Pacific air instead of the jet stream taking a big dip allowing for the cold air to come down from Canada.
    I am hoping winter shows up in January.

  37. Some of my forecast thinking of snow just after Christmas is in doubt, good grief looks like we’re heading into Jan virtually snowless.

  38. One of my neighbors says all we have to get to is mid Feb and then winter is in back 9, it’s kinda like aug15th when u know summers just about over, then I got to thinking mid feb is only 6-8 weeks away, it doesn’t look good oceans r mild air is mild and that prolonged cold air I saw looks less potent

    1. Don’t worry dude. Still going with above for snow. As I said everybody will be shocked with how winter ends. Slow start and massive ending. Take that and run with it.

      1. I respectfully disagree it goes out with a bang 🙂 I do agree we see snow in Jan but ends mild, hope all is well

  39. Here’s the 12Z GFS system for after Christmas: BOO!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121216%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=288&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F16%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=85&nextImage=yes

  41. There is plenty of time for that to change. I give that storm threat a better chance of doing that than the one late in the week.

  43. Has Boston been in the teens yet this month? I don’t think so. I don’t even think Boston’s been below 25. And, it doesn’t look like that will happen the rest of this year. That is really rare. The new normal may indeed be that Boston’s weather is that of Richmond, Virginia, and Richmond’s weather is what Atlanta’s is supposed to be. Weird and a little unsettling, actually. I’m not an alarmist, but the temps across the lower 48 do have me wondering, especially because of the trend over the last 15 years or so.

      1. That’s really unheard of. I think in 1998 it was a December like this one, but other than that I’m not recalling anything like this year’s December. Not even last December was this mild, at least not in Boston.

        The last cold day was November 30th. It was a beautiful day – about 33 during the day for a high and it felt right and I was optimistic about the winter ahead. That seems like an eternity ago.

        Minneapolis’s nighttime temps have been running 15-24 degrees above normal all month.

        By the way, the cold was short-lived in Northwestern Europe. Indeed, virtually all of Europe is back to normal or well above normal temps, and that is projected to stay that way for the long range as well.

  44. Alert: we have a snowcon of -2 here in MetroWest, mild temps and trees budding… seriously, the flakes have started to fly, 3 or 4 by my count – I will take it this winter!

    1. That second band coming out of RI has potential, hopefully we have enough equipment on the road to keep up with it.

    2. Reminds me of the Dunkin Donuts and a flake or two starts to fly and the plow guy takes off in his truck….. I havent seen it in a while, but I think thats the gist of it.

  46. For the long range don’t look at the models, look at what the atmosphere is trying to do. I think if the NAO continues to be negative and west based the models will catch up to that.

  48. Does someone here have access to Accuweather Premium? That has weather records going back 19 years, and you could easily see what the temps at Logan have been this year as well as compare with analog years.

    I gave up my subscription, otherwise I’d look myself.

  50. just sleet here in billerica with snow mixing in at times with the sleet. nothin more than a think dusting less than a thenth of an inch

    1. I still think I get called into work in Boston for atleast some salting. I just see a surprise here. Its not that warm out. I see a surprise here, anybody want too comment. Snowing good here in Pembroke.

      1. It was accumulating here OS and is snow grains. Or sgrains. Welllll it isn’t snizzle and I like that term so thought I’d use sgrains

        NWS just issued an advisory for freezing precip through midnight

        Is it too warm to freeze on roads and sidewalks there? John do you get called for walking surfaces too?

  51. A nice band set up on the South Shore, but it is moving off to be replaced by
    virtually nothing.

    Just in from A brief trip to W. Roxbury. Vicki called it snizzle. It looked
    like snow grains to me? Probably same thing! 😀

    Auto thermometer was reading 36 when I arrived at home.

  54. 12Z Euro….Look at how this next storm sticks around for 3-4 days while
    the column cools down. Sure looks like some backside Snows here.
    Going to look at the Wundermap snow totals. Will report, if I have time.
    Heading out to a party shortly.

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif
    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif
    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif
    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif

    1. NWS:

      .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
      — Changed Discussion —
      PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS STILL SCATTERED AT MOST ACROSS SOUTHERN
      NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A COASTAL FRONT HAS DEVELOPED…AND
      EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM BETWEEN KLWM AND KBVY…KBED AND KBOS…TO
      JUST SOUTH OF KORH…THEN WASHED OUT A BIT JUST NORTH OF THE CT
      BORDER. MOST REPORTS THUS FAR A FOR A SNOW/SLEET MIX TO THE NORTH
      OF THIS BOUNDARY…WITH MAINLY RAIN TO THE SOUTH.

  56. Look at this latest OBS from LOGAN. I am amazed that the temp is
    holding at 36 with an East wind at 17 mph! That water out there is
    at about 47.

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

    2 Day History

    Light Snow
    36.0 °F
    Last Updated: Dec 16 2012, 1:54 pm EST
    Sun, 16 Dec 2012 13:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Light Snow
    Temperature: 36.0 °F (2.2 °C)
    Dewpoint: 28.9 °F (-1.7 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 76 %
    Wind: East at 17.3 MPH (15 KT)
    Wind Chill: 26 F (-3 C)
    Visibility: 4.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1022.6 mb
    Altimeter: 30.20 in Hg

    1. I think this was a pretty decent cold high, unfortunately in retreat. However, Caribou was below zero this morning and is still short of 20F (I think).

      The pressures are falling, the cold airmass moving away, I think it will be 40F to 42F by midnight along the coastline and climbing above freezing most areas inland.

  57. Warm air seems to be filtering in already in Sterling as it is now sleeting. Just a very light dusting of snow from earlier.

  61. Temps is 35.6 degrees with rain, I don’t think salting would be necessary as temps will be above freezing through the event

  62. Meso band along a boundary. Snowing in a narrow band north of Boston for several hours now, ground covered. Only a little mixing on the southern edge of the band. I was out and drove across it. Temps as of 5PM from 26 at LWM to 36 BOS. Nice contrast.

    Working on The Week Ahead…

    Seeing a damp Monday, wet Monday night into Tuesday which may end white (probably not much), colder shot Wednesday and one more milder/wet event Thursday night before cold air floods in Friday through the weekend.

    GFS is not too bad today. Euro is decent but is missing out on a few details and I believe may also be too slow with its timing (we have seen this problem before).

    Details soon (around Pats game time)…

  63. Time to get out and buy a Ford Pickup with the plow package! Just heard on the radio, one of the areas Ford dealers is offering a Jordan’s furnature type deal where if u buy any pickup F-150 or larger with the plow package before jan 1, and it snows less than 18″ for the season in Boston, u get the plow package free ($5000 value) 🙂

        1. There is a great duck pond nearby. Often the ducks heads Are underwater with their butts in the air. That’s pretty much what I’m picturing. :)))

          1. I’m thinking its a bad bet. I have the lowest prediction for this blog and its 18.3. Hmmmmm do you think they were peeking.

  64. In Foxboro, bombing rain for about an hour straight… Debating on whether to let it pass and go in or suck it up and go in. What’s the really short term forecast?

      1. Thx – just noticed a dry slot on the radar moving N from PVD, once the rain lightens up, we are heading in. GO PATS!

  66. For anyone watching game it will switch to CNBC during the presidents address at newtown if you want to keep watching game.

    Lovely tribute with 26 flares at start of game.

    1. I switched to the service for a while……

      Since back, 49ers successfully faked a punt and got a first down….

      How the Pats arent down more is fortunate.

      1. Still freezing rain here. I know it’s over-used but I could really skate on my driveway. I’m afraid to go back out for firewood for fear of taking out my hip or something.

        1. Retrac I forget where you are. I haven’t been out. And I will tell husband to be careful taking dog out. Thank you

          1. Holden…it’s 27 out right now. Maybe 3/16″ ice accretion. I’m not going back out. Way too slippery.

            1. You are up there where I’m not surprised there is icing. I am a bit surprised here and glad we opted not to go to the vigil as much as I wanted to

              It’s 29 here.

    1. I was thinking of you. Trucks have been by here again and I can see them going up and down the Main Street.

    1. I have never heard my SIL say anything really negative about Pats. I can’t even repeat what he said. Suffice to say he agrees with you Matt

      1. forget the #1 seed.

        #2 seed if Houston loses and we win out because Denver isn’t going to lose another. Plan on #3 seed now and #2 if we get a break. Clear as mud right.

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