The Week Ahead

266 Comments

10:44PM

A week of transition is underway from the mild pattern of December so far to a colder/dry pattern coming in the days ahead. This will take place with the passage of low pressure systems late Tuesday and late Thursday to early Friday. Both of these systems should be largely mild systems with rain for the forecast area. Looking ahead to the end of the week, it looks like it will be colder & mostly dry, but we may have to watch for a couple disturbances that may produce some snow showers.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain and drizzle except some freezing rain and sleet in the 495 belt north of the Mass Pike up through southern NH. Lows 30-40 from north to south. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain and drizzle. Highs 40-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Lows 35-40. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with periods of rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with lingering rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 45-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH in the morning shifting to W in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. Isolated rain and snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 42.

FRIDAY: AM cloudy with rain. PM variably cloudy with rain or snow showers. Low 35. High 43.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 20. High 36.

266 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Anybody read Pete b blog tonight. He wrote that with all this mild weather he is almost ready to throw in the towel for snow this winter

  3. Thanks TK. I’m impressed you can concentrate with the game and not feeling well. Hope you are feeling better!

  4. Thanks TK.
    I don’t know how anyone can throw in the towel on snow this winter. As I have been saying for a while lets see where we are at the end of January beginning of February before we label this winter.

  6. While i dont think anyone should throw in the towel for this winter yet, i cant help but wonder at what point we start to worry. What point during the winter if we stay in this pattern do we start to say maybe it just wasnt meant to be…

    2. Ugh!! But hey u got to believe, it’s gonna be Patriots at Broncos in divisional playoff round and then go from there, Go Patriots!! Temp is 37.9 and drizzly 🙂

  9. I wonder if the 0z EURO’s temps for days 9 and 10 are reasonable or out-to-lunch, because it shows true winter cold (it will be officially winter then 🙂 ), way and I mean way up in northern Canada and thats about it.

  10. May be hearing about Hurricane Evan in the news the next day or two. I dont know much about the population of the 2 islands it looks like it pounded, but with Bopha’s death toll in the hundreds in the Phillipines a week or two ago, I fear a similar story may emerge due to this very intense hurricane.

    1. I think thats whats been more alarming to me so far is the departures from normal of the low temps. We have had very few cold nights.

  12. Thanks, TK.

    Looks like Sudbury is right on the line. It’s 32 degrees and it is light rain/freezing rain. Around 6:30 a.m. or so, my husband went out and said we had about 1/4 inch of ice. Doppler radar shows the rain slowly moving northward.

      1. Actually, temp. is 28 degrees. I think I was looking at Framingham’s temp. Time for another cup of coffee! 🙂

  13. Bad out there this morning. Glad this is moving out. Too much more and we’d be looking at ice storm redux.

  14. Plenty of Ice in Lexington Bedford area. Plowing and salting up& down Hartwell Ave. So much for warm air off the ocean .

  15. Nasty ice on everything on our street, driveway, cars, blades of grass are coated and tree limbs are coated. Temp 31.7 and rain but freezing on all.

    Christmas lights on bushes in front look very pretty coated in ice!

  16. Same situation here in Westboro. No snow on the ground, but a nice coating of ice on everything. It got me a much needed 2 hour delay for school after last night’s late Pats game haha.

    1. I was surprised Framingham didn’t delay too. Sanders just went down our street and there are a lot of very narrow, windy streets just north of us that buses have to travel toward Southboro/Marlboro.

  17. Oh well….No snow for now. No prospects through 10 days anyway. Actually, beyond that as well.

    As far as the Pats go. Tough conditions, but Both teams had to play in it.
    Too Many turnovers!
    Brady forced a couple of throws into coverage and paid dearly for it.
    Ridley was useless. I’ll bet he rides the bench the rest of the year and I even
    wonder if he will be back next year. Belichick loathes fumbles and when a player
    has fumbleitis….good bye! Great comeback!! Truly awesome. Just too bad
    special teams couldn’t pin them back on the kickoff and the defense just couldn’t
    make a stop when needed.

    As someone stated above, the bye is gone for sure. I don’t see this team making it
    to the super bowl. Still too many deficiencies that show up against the superior teams.

    1. I think they make it to the super bowl as i think the are the best team in the AFC. Winning the super bowl is a totally different animal. The NFC is far superior this year as the Pats have had a tough time with those teams all year.

        1. It will be a great game for sure and it worries me it will prob be in Denver. They’re much better than the last time they played them but I still think Belichick has Peyton’s #

      2. Just rain Vicki here, no call.its coming. When winter starts thing’s will come together. I’m not backing off at all.

        1. I am sure it’s coming – but was just wondering if there was enough or any ice in Brookline to get you the OT you were hoping for. I have a son in law who has always had a funny gut instinct about storms. I spoke to him last night and he said he’s had the feeling for a while we are going to have a big storm in 2013. I told him you are also convinced 🙂

    2. I do see, that INDEED, that is the ensemble mean.
      Don’t know what to make of the HUGE difference there! 😀

  21. Talk about a Lakes Cutter!!!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20121217%2F12%2Fnam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=081&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F17%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=104&nextImage=yes

  22. That look ugly OS, but I like the cold the 12z GFS is showing for after x-mas into January. It looks really cold in the long range.

    1. Like I said hadi patience is key. I have no doubts that my cold and snowy forecast will hold. What your seeing this week with the storm after storm will be the way things are heading except with snow. I put alot into my forecast for a reason. Buckle up because the winter will be knocking real soon.

  23. Maybe hope for all in SNE for a white x-mas? Sounds very tricky though.

    SATURDAY AND SUNDAY…

    MODELS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTING UP
    ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING COLDER WEATHER TO THE REGION.
    FOR NOW WE JUST WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS…AS UPPER TROUGH
    OVERHEAD MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE
    ONE THING WILL HAVE TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH
    TO SETUP. THE 00Z ECMWF HINTS AT THAT FEATURE…WHICH IF HAPPENED
    COULD RESULT IN MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. THOSE FEATURES
    ARE ALWAYS TRICKY TO FORECAST EVEN IN THE VERY NEAR TERM…SO NO
    POINT TALKING MORE ABOUT IT AT THIS POINT BUT ITS SOMETHING TO KEEP
    AN EYE ON.

    1. Keeping up in the football spirit…a “Hail Mary” at best. However, if I am reading the graph correctly the NAO should be in its most negative phase at that time before climbing to neutral.

      Otherwise, I see no snow for SNE at least through the start of January. 🙁

  24. Still lots of ice here. I’m hearing large branches cracking and falling. Powers been out about 30 minutes. Hmmmm. When is that warmup?

  26. Here is the update:

    PM UPDATE…

    EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR INTERIOR MA UNTIL 4 PM.
    TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER DUE TO LIGHT N FLOW…AND
    IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR READINGS TO RISE ABOVE
    FREEZING. ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR SW NH UNTIL 8 PM WHERE
    TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB ABOVE 32F UNTIL THIS EVENING.
    ADDITIONAL ICING WILL BE 1/10 INCH OR LESS.

    OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
    AREAS OF FOG AND PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.

    FORECAST HIGHS IN 30S N/40S S ARE ON TRACK.– End Changed Discussion —

  29. Pattern is just not conducive for snow in our area right now. Flat jet storm, Pacific air within the storms etc….. bad news for the near future

    1. It’s even worse than that. When we do get a storm, aside from lack of arctic air, the storm tracks through the Great Lakes! 😀 😀

  31. Until we get the air coming from Canada instead of the Pacific don’t see much in the way of snow.
    Hopefully winter shows up in January.

    1. I hope so, but at this point I wouldn’t bet on it.

      There are some indications with both the Euro and the GFS of
      at least some colder air. How long it sticks around is another issue.

      Looking more and more interesting for 10 days out.

  32. Last winter was like the last years Red Sox team. I hope this winter will not be like this years redsox team. ( just another funny way to look at things)

  33. around 1 inch of snow with .2 to .3 of ice. all over the power lines, houses. and my sleeding hill is extremely fast 😉

      1. neibor’s are already on it. 2 kids are out there right now. I make man made snow … which has been a really wet snow. today its compact and fast.

  34. I am beginning to wonder if we actually may have somewhat of a repeat of last year. I know they say that no two winters are alike but isn’t there always a first for something???

    1. TK has been inisisting that we are not in the same pattern as last winter, but I am beginning to wonder if even though we are in a “different” pattern, we will still have the same “result”.

  35. It has been snowing all day in most of Maine so I guess a white Christmas up there is now assured. Henry this morning showed a projected snow map of 50% of the CONUS covered but SNE is not included…completely bare. 🙁

  36. The 12z EURO, if that ever came true, at 240 hrs, would put everyone over the top…..

    Snow potential in the deep south, while its cool to mild and eventually rainy in New England.

  37. I find it interesting that Springfield was never included in the Winter Weather Advisory during this storm. If it was in fact included yesterday, then I will stand corrected.

  38. I believe Hadi had previously posted the whole write up from the NWS, however,
    I post one sentence as follows:

    THE ONE THING WILL HAVE TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH TO SETUP

    The above was for Sat-Sun.

    When they say inverted trough, are they talking about at 500MB or 700MB?
    OR something else? I presume it means one or both of the above.

    Thanks

  39. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    If you want to take away a positive,a lot of precip forecast, so if storm track is wrong, lots of white instead of wet

  42. Reading on the weather channel that Cyclone Evan, I was posting satellite pictures of it yesterday, was one of the strongest cyclones to hit Fiji (population 890,000)………Two weeks ago, Bopha was one of the strongest cyclones to hit the southern Phillipines……… There’s excessive cold going on in Siberia and North Asia, even by their standards….meanwhile, the lower 48 cant seem to get cold…..I mean…it really starts to make one wonder…..as I’ve said before, I dont think cold and snow are disappearing anytime soon, however, there sure are multiple anomolies (according to recorded averages) that seem to be becoming more and more frequent.

  43. The coastal front is literally on top of Logan :

    2:54 pm : 44F wind 040 degrees

    3:13 pm : 39F wind 330 degrees

    3:54 pm : 38F wind 350 degrees

    4:47 pm 45F wind 070 degrees

    1. Interesting that these coastal fronts almost always come right to a halt at route 128 as if the road itself is a “frontal barrier”. Also I don’t believe the front has pushed through much of Cape Ann.

  44. Our temp is dropping a bit. Just went down four tenths. And everything is still frozen. I’m thinking this is a problem everywhere west of us too???

    1. Wow Vicki !! I should have known better without a deep low pressure going to our west to really surge the mild air inland that the cold air was going to hold strong. This has turned into a significant icing event for inland areas.

      1. I’ve been hearing branches crack and thud all day but it seems to be confined to the woods behind the house and there are no wires there. No idea why we lost power earlier but it was only for about an hour. I have my police scanner on and there are lots of reports of minor accidents in parking lots and many wires down but more cable than power.

  46. The icing in MetroWest made for a very pretty day. I was in Wellesley around noon (34°) and it was minimal there, but driving through Natick/Framingham (32°), things were quite frozen.

    1. My business associate is in wellesley and was surprised when I said we have icing as was my husband in Watertown. We’ve had the outside Christmas lights on all day. They are lovely with the ice.

  47. they expanded it again URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    542 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012

    …SLIPPERY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY…

    MAZ002>010-012-026-180700-
    /O.EXT.KBOX.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-121218T0700Z/
    WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
    CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
    WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
    SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…CHARLEMONT…GREENFIELD…ORANGE…
    BARRE…FITCHBURG…FRAMINGHAM…LOWELL…LAWRENCE…GLOUCESTER…
    CHESTERFIELD…BLANDFORD…AMHERST…NORTHAMPTON…MILFORD…
    WORCESTER…AYER
    542 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY…

    * LOCATIONS…INTERIOR SECTIONS OF WESTERN…CENTRAL…AND
    NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

    * HAZARD TYPES…FREEZING RAIN.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

    * TIMING…UNTIL 2 AM TUESDAY.

    * IMPACTS…UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BE SLIPPERY.

    * TEMPERATURES…IN THE LOWER 30S.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    DRIVERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR ICY SPOTS ON ROADWAYS…ESPECIALLY ON
    BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

  48. NWS has arctic air arriving late in the weekend into early next week just in time for Christmas…but with little or no moisture.

  49. To get the cold and snow is a waste of cold air to me. At least you could make snow with those temps for homes that have a snowgun and have your own white Christmas.

  50. This is the kind of weather I just hate with a passion. Cold, damp, rainy. YUCK. And all right before Christmas. This is Grinch weather!

            1. Ok. If that is what you would rather have :). Goodnight! Have to be in early tomorrow for a client meeting.

    2. Haha only at Vicki’s house,, I’m kidding 🙂 I actually didn’t even know anyone was receiving icing, where is this Vicki Framingham?

      1. Yep It really isn’t bad enough to loose power. We just got lucky. Every blade of grass on lawn is an icicle. Trees and bushes still frozen. Roads are salted/sanded so fine. Just walking areas and parking lots.

  52. Wxrisk.com on Facebook have a interesting read on possible scenario for next week. A lot of insight you don’t get here or anywhere else for that matter.

    1. He’s gotta try hard this year. Last season they couldn’t get anything to verify.

      Smart guy. Bad year last year.

    1. Here it is beautiful. Although despite what the thermometer says either temps up or heat is rising because there was a huge crash on our roof. Other option is Santa and reindeer were doing a test run and slipped.

      1. Good grief I haven’t heard anything at all about any icing problems or power outages from here to Boston this is the 1st

        1. Did you read captains post earlier. Also lots of icing in the boroughs. We’ve had power off and on again all day and are still hearing branches falling occasionally.

      2. I wouldn’t be to concerned, it’s gonna be over 40 by 5-6am and it’s gone from 32.5 degrees at 745pm to 34.7 degrees at 9:12, u should be fine, I’ll check back tommorrow sometime goodnight 🙂

        2. I’m not concerned its beautiful to look at. Only problem is when the power goes out it comes back on too soon

      3. I just told my wife and she’s like what the hek r u talking about, and I said yeah they got a little ice up 495 and she said good keep it up there haha 🙂 I’m going to bed goodnight

  56. I was hoping some ski areas in NNE would get some much needed snow from this next system, but it looks like rain all the way to the Canadian border. Only places to see snow is in far NW Maine.

  57. Great read on wxrisk facebook page. Thanks coastal! Hes been talking about that storm after xmas for a while now. I really hope hes right 🙂

    1. It’s interesting.

      Maybe over-analysis, but then again who decides how much is too much.

      This was done very often last winter with most of the anticipated events turning out very differently than advertised. The majority of people look so far ahead that they don’t actually check to see if predicted events verify. We live beyond day 7 while weather actually happens on the current day we’re in. 🙂

      As for the actual prediction, I do not agree with it. The SE ridge will not be completely gone and will prevent the scenario.

  59. It appears the freezing rain/freezing drizzle line has pushed a few miles north and west and it runs from northwest RI continue north to Milford Ma through Framingham and north eastward to Methuen, if your north and west of those areas ur experience minor icing, if your south and east of those areas like most of us are u are experiencing just wet conditions, looking at obs, Worcester has light snow and about a half inch of snow/sleet and light freezing drizzle accumulation. Hope all is well everyone, I think it get to the lower 50’s for most of eastern Mass tommorrow 🙂

    1. My friend in Milford said there was no ice there but a trace of ice just north in Upton but had melted in the last few hours,

      1. None in Uxbridge either which surprised me, Charlie. A friend in Southbridge had icing in the morning but only a trace left by afternoon. It was odd to say the least. I didn’t measure the accumulated ice on the branches, etc. I guess I’d say maybe 2/8 to 1/4 but that’s a wild guess and may be low. It was still coating everything when we went to sleep (10:30) but of course is only in patched of accumulated ice on the lawns now.

        I think Coastal’s wish for Framingham is working 😉

  61. At least many parts of the country have a winter feel and look. Major storms out west and upcoming in the plains.

    The cold air is coming, now the question is any storminess. End of dec into 1/2 January will be below average.

  62. No snow from this storm unless you get way north into Maine. The Maine mountains will do well but the rest of NE will end up plain rain. Just shocking for Dec 18th. But again winter hasn’t even started 🙂

  66. My husband has a great idea! He says we should grade the storms – you know, like give this one an A+; that one a B-. 🙂

    1. I would give this storm a F- on the snow fun factor, but gave bonus points for a mild ice event, so maybe a D-

    2. rainshine – did you have icing there or any power problems in Sudbury? I was surprised when we lost power again last night but it was only for about 10-15 minutes.

      1. We had plenty of ice in Sudbury, Vicki. About 1/4 of an inch or so. We never lost any power – I can’t speak for other parts of Sudbury, ‘though. The ice was very pretty on the bushes and trees, but we saw some fallen branches. Walking and driving was treacherous yesterday. Right now we have some patches of snow/ice still on the ground but all seems to be melting fast.

        1. So I did underestimate. I was going to say 1/4 but wasn’t sure. It was beautiful, wasn’t it. I didn’t go out. I’m at the age where I figure if I slip and fall it’s going to do more damage than it’s worth.

          1. I heard transformer noises and saw blue flashes in the sky around 4:30am in Chelmsford. Went onto the National Grid website and saw that a chunk of North Chelmsford and Lowell had lost power. I’m not in that grid – lights only flashed a little.

  67. Brett Anderson’s long range update completely different than last week’s.

    Colder…..(maybe resulting drier?)

    TK……

    In Brett’s words…..”I do feel that both the shorter range and long range modeling has been having a hard time sorting out the overall pattern across the northern Hemisphere as there has been a greater than normal amount of flipping and flopping.”

    I trust Brett more than anyone at Accuweather. He seems to be the most level headed. What are your thoughts on his comment I quoted in here. Do you have any ideas on why Brett might be thinking on why the models are having a “hard time” – assuming you agree that they are which you certainly might not.

    Or…is this the birth of the colder and dry forecast you originally put out there?

    1. I went into that a bit in my update. And yes I do think we are in a very, very slow transition to cold/dry. Much slower than I originally anticipated.

    1. I forget which winter it was O.S. but it was maybe fifteen years ago or so, maybe longer where it was one cutter after another and it lasted that way for most of the winter with light overrunning front end snows and lots of sleet and freezing rain. Someone here might have the year.

      I remember Mark Rosenthal remarking about it at the time.

      1. It’s a blank to me.

        I do remember the Winter of 1968-1969.

        Cutter, after cutter after cutter, THEN the whole main trough
        moved Eastward in February and we had 2 Monster snows.
        Where I lived (Millis) it was two (2) 2 foot plus storms.

        It is still early yet, even if we don’t like what we see so far.

        😀

        1. I remember that year well also. As far as the other year, I remember that as well but will have to think some on what year it was. We have a 3.5 foot stone wall in the back yard and I remember we could not see it. Also, I remember talking to my MIL on the phone while Mac was shoveling the roof and watching him slide off (not hurt). I am trying to remember if it’s the 80s or 90s.

      1. This may be the first model to be figuring out that a Great Lakes cutter isnt possible given the setup in that timeframe…lets see if King EURO catches on, although lately its been a series of “checks” for the EURO as its had its accuracy questioned esp for calling for a major snow storm this week along the coast, doh!

  69. Had to drive to natick just now, I’ve heard reports of a little ice out here but I can’t find any ice anywhere, maybe it’s gone already , have a good day everyone, same weather today as the last 2 ugh

    1. There was really no ice on the roads yesterday either other than very early commute. All traffic reports I heard this morning said sloppy unlike yesterday. All ice on non-road surfaces, grass and trees was long gone in the wee hours of the morning.

  71. OS take a look at wrisk talk about a Rex block, I have no idea whether he is wishful or that is something that might really happen.

    1. Hadi,

      I did look at that. I “think” the Canadian is going along with that idea, but
      the Euro is not. So we shall see.

      1. However,
        For once, the GFS is in line with the Euro:

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121218%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=228&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F18%2F2012+06UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=77&nextImage=yes

  72. Anyone notice how the nam is much colder for Friday storm? I know the nam usually is biased with cold but something to keep an eye on it.

        2. Agreed. Nam always overcooks the precip, and most
          especially backend precip. But, still something to watch just the same.

    1. Not dry at all. I guess one good thing is we’re making a dent in the rainfall deficit. I still think we finish the year with double digit deficits though 🙁

    2. I had replied that to someone – thought it was you, John – yesterday. It is a good sign that it is not dry. Except the precip events are minimal. To date for the month of December, we (Framingham) has received 1.89 inch of snow. .59 was overnight. Most events are in the .02/.04 range. But it is a start!

  74. 12 Z GFS pull the precip out much faster, but snow showers are possible over the weekend. Also take a look at the low position after the front comes through. Maybe it could enhance things just enough to provide a white x-mas? Anything that does fall will stick for sure. Doubt its much but maybe something vs. nothing.

    1. Still don’t like the way that is setting up, however, it holds promise for
      things to perhaps change some. Just maybe, the block and that big high
      up there will force a coastal redevelopment sooner than currently
      depicted??? Who knows, but with our luck, it will still be a Lakes Cutter.

  75. At least on a personal side it looks like a decent snow event in Maine so I will enjoy it for x-mas with the kids 🙂

  77. 12 Z gfs for the post x-mas storm is very interesting and transfers the low form the GLC to a coastal storm…..hmmmmm

        1. Indeed he did – In fact I should say I know his husband personally (he served on a board where I served as a staff member.)

          They’re both wonderful. He’ll be great at his next gig!

  79. OS with that block it has to xfer to the coast, I think its promising, but too much time before now and then 🙂

  80. Wxrisk.com
    COMMENT ON 12Z GFS …

    IGNORE IT. Here is why.

    FIRST at day 7 DEC 25 the Model OVER develops the system
    ( the Low) coming into southern CALIF and the sw states. for you weather geeks this means the Model is closing off the 500 mb low waaaaaaaaay too fast.

    SECOND ….The is ANOTHER big system in the east pacific coming into the west coast…..Fast. This SHOULD keep the Low over calif / AZ moving East and NOT allow it to slow down

    (one of the reasons WHY it has been so damn warm is Because of the Pac Jet… now suddenly the pac jet is going to slow down?…. pluzzzzze…).

    THIRD the Model takes the southern Low over TX (204 hrs) and moves it NE… into the Great lakes … and INTO the REX BLOCK!!! by DAY 9.5 This is absurd and again a meteorological impossibility.

  81. GFS fantasy land in the long range, but things are active and cold

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121218%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_372_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=372&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F18%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

    2. maybe if we do not talk about it it will happen … such as this storm. the models were saying cold wintery mix. until i looked at the models. then ….rain. so maybe if we do not look at the models we could get it. 😛

  82. Storm out in the Midwest for this week looks like powerhouse!! Blizzard watches and warning will be up for many areas. WSW and Blizzard Watches are already posted for many locations. Chicago looks to get some snow as well for the first time in over 280 days.

    Our time will come!!!!!

    1. Obviously some of the esembles favor redevelopment and some favor
      a lakes cutter. The mean of them all looks more reasonable.
      Which will win out?

  84. Also for the post x-mas storm just take a look at the high in Canada pegged at 1040, no way a storm goes right through that. GFS will correct if the 1040 high maintains itself. A hurricane would not barrel through a high like that.

    1. 12Z Euro out to 168 hours, still cranking what looks to be a Lakes Cutter.
      Still room for redevelopment thought. Waiting for hours 192 and 204.
      We shall see!

    1. I saw that Hadi and yes, it’s better news for snow. The only thing that concerns me about that map is that it looks like a map whereby clippers come zipping downstream and OTS in a straight line off Mid-Atlantic. One little caveat there would be if we could get the jet to buckle and some of clippers could really blow up.

      I’ll take my chances with this scenario versus cutters with redevelopment as cutters tend to flood the mid-levels with warm air as we know that even coastal redevelopment might have a hard time reversing.

      1. I will always take the cold and then see what happens. Chances are much better we get something. When temps are above average the chance is near zero.

  88. Wxrisk.com
    COMMENTS on 12z EUROPEAN. MODEL .. wow what a shift…

    the early morning tuesday run of the euporean … that comes out at 1am has the Big Piece of energy in the jet stream moving into s calif this weekend.. then moving to central TX/ s OK by DEC 25.

    fair enough…

    the new Tuesday afternoon euro — just coming out … has TOTALLY different track… the Low comes into the US … not over southern CALIF but … get this.. over southern OREGON???

    what??? and instead of being over TX on DEC 25 the Upper Low is over get this … Northern ILL..

    The European Model shifted the Upper Low 600-900 miles NORTH over the last 2 hrs

    NO I dont think so…

  89. My apologies for basically taking yesterday off from the blog.

    Still recovering from the virus which I actually think was a double hit (2 bugs one after the other). I am feeling better but it’s going to take the balance of the week to get back to 100% – at least it will be before Christmas! 🙂

    Running around a bit this afternoon but looking over the data when I have a chance and a full update will show up this evening. 🙂

    1. Thanks TK for checking in with us, but take your time and get better soon. We can continue posting among ourselves. AFAIC you can post a new blog anytime tomorrow! 🙂

    2. TK – if it’s a double hit and with Christmas one week away please PLEASE just take care of you. We can take care of us. Feel better soon!

        1. Hi Sue – nonweather talk – did you ever get to check out the reindeer feeding with your kids and do you have the link to the portable north pole where you can personalize a video for your children??

          Anyone with youngsters might really like this. Adults too

          http://www.portablenorthpole.com/home

          1. Vicki….we did not make it to the reindeer..it has been crazy here! Thank you so much for the link for the video we will definitely check it out. So nice of you to share. I feel like there just isn’t enough time to do everything we want at the holidays. However at least the weather hasn’t prohibitted any events!

  90. Hi Retrac,

    The 1994-95 winter season comes to mind. There was very little snow (14.9″) but lots of mixed events that even produced ice for Boston one day in early February which is somewhat rare unless there is flash freezing after a rainstorm.

    I hope this helps! 🙂

    1. Thanks Philip. That might be the one now that I think about it. The timeline I’m thinking is about right.

      I remember being really frustrated and even Rosenthal had disappointment in his cadence.

      Thanks! 🙂

  92. I guess I’m going to dissent on cold coming in the longterm …..

    NAO doesnt seem to be changing much, PNA pretty much staying the same……

    The upcoming lake cutters would probably put down a swath of snowcover that would encourage temp contrasts and storm tracks to form west of the East Coast….

    The southeast ridge seems to be showing signs of appearing lately….

    Give another 5 to 7 days to go by and my guess is that the cold will NOT be shown to be coming to the east coast and there’ll be more and more inside runners into early Jan. 2013.

    Its been since after Thanksgiving that we’ve been saying the cold is coming. Its now Dec. 18th.

    1. Party pooper. 😉

      I see what you mean though Tom…neutral NAO + negative PNA for the foreseeable future.

    2. Ur spot on about the cold was supposed to come at or shortly after thanksgiving, and yet here we are, one month later, still waiting…

  93. Brett has been pretty accurate with thoughts about the cold, he has not been calling for cold for a while and now he is. I do think the cold comes, so let’s see what happens.

    1. Brett Anderson also mentioned that the core of the arctic air is still in the Yukon (NW Canada). IMHO until we get “the good stuff” we might just end up with snow to rain events as opposed to all snow ones. We will see.

  94. TK, feel better soon. And please take it easy! Rest up so you can enjoy the holidays. As Vicki says, we can take care of us.

  96. TK – hope you feel better soon. What you had sounds so similar to what I had and my son, too. I got sick with a fever and head cold that lasted a couple of days, then I seemingly got better only to get sicker again. It lasted a long time. I’m over it now.

    On to weather: What a dismal stretch this has been: 3 days of gloom. We need the rain. I’m happy about that. But, goodness this has not been the December I had hoped for. Luckily there are many other things in life to be grateful for, and weather is just that, weather. Nothing one can do about it.

  97. Hello, rain Friday and the day after Christmas is a snow inland rain near the coast, I wonder if the ponds will ever freeze this year, will c 🙂

    1. We’ll see, indeed. Looking ahead I only see a brief, 4-day dip in temperatures starting this weekend (certainly not enough to freeze lakes and ponds), followed by more of what we’ve been seeing this month. Could close out the month with rain, wind, and 50 degree temps. Craziness.

  98. With that said I do believe we will go into a very cold with some snow period in late Dec into early Jan, we will see how how long it stays though

    1. And what I mean by very cold is temps in the high teens and low 20’s for lows and mid 30’s for highs 🙂

  99. Harvey just hinted at possible storminess the day after Christmas!

    Even though Christmas Eve (day) and Day will be cold in the mid-30’s I worry about warming up before a storm arrives which seems to be the trend.

  100. Fwiw, the latest 6-10/8-14 day CPC outlook has the cold west of the Mississippi and normal to slightly above normal temps to the east with above normal precip almost coast-to-coast.

    Assuming this verifies, my bet is still no “all-snow” events but I guess we have to start somewhere. We need to get rid of that SE ridge once and for all.

    1. That’s precisely what I’m seeing: persistent SE ridge and a prevailing southwesterly. I don’t trust any of the projections that suggest a cold outbreak, as I don’t see a pattern shift. I even discount Brett Anderson’s remarks, and I like his no nonsense approach to weather. We’re likely to be in this pattern for the long-term. I also don’t see the mid Atlantic snow storms that some were predicting before. In fact, I see the possibility of record warmth happening in January in the mid Atlantic states.

      My concern is not just a personal one. The ski resorts in NE are hurting and will continue to hurt if this continues. They had a banner season in 2010/2011, but that was an anomaly in recent years.

      2. Don’t get me wrong, I love skiing in the east and grew up skiing here, but i took a trip to CO a couple years ago and skied a few places. It’s not even close to how much better it is out there. Even in a dry year there and great year here, it’s still so much better there.

        1. Of course there is no comparison between the mountains here and the mountains there, our mountains are 2,000-6,000 ft, out west they range from 2,000-18,000 ft 🙂

        2. There are alot more people from around the country that go out west for sking, and there stuff is updated too

          1. I know theres a huge elevation difference, but i also feel the areas out there know what to do with the snow they do get. They use it to their advantage and hold onto it. So many times out here I see them just grooming the natural snow into the woods.

  103. Eventually people r getting used to these winters, so when we get a 1-3 or 2-4 inch snow event, it will be a huge event haha 🙂

    1. I agree. It’s why we don’t see that things are changing. Americans have notoriously short memories IMHO

  104. It appears there are more optimism about next weeks storm on other sites. This place it down right depressing. Hints of the storm trending colder (pushing east) on the ensembles.

  105. I think it’s just from getting let down time and time again. Chance of storm…ohhh wait, nm. Next!

    I do think if it comes together right, the storm after Xmas has a lot of potential and have been checking wxrisk’s FB page after every run to see what he has to say.

    2. I said it a thousand times, no repeat of last winter period. The cold and snow is coming. The dry cycle has I believe ended.

  108. My nephew that’s 3 yrs old hasn’t gone sledding just yet, last year we were trying but there was never enough snow 🙁

  109. I’m positive, nearly 98% positive that the storm right after Christmas is a mild storm and well…you get the idea. 🙂

    3. Even if the storm transfers its energy to the coast, i fear by then too much warmer air will have made it in here by the time that happens

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