Looking To Christmas

160 Comments

10:34PM

The transitional pattern will continue for the next 7 days, through Christmas Day. Computer model solutions will likely be somewhat unstable during this time. My best guess at the pattern is that we will see drier and cooler air move in through early Thursday. Another low pressure area will traverse the region Thursday night and Friday. Some of the chilly air may be hard to scour out and make precipitation type issues for the forecast. Right now the thinking is that we may see some areas, especially north and west of Boston, start out as some snow late Thursday night into Friday before the warm sector blasts into the region and everyone ends up mild and wet. But as the low pressure area passes, colder air will wrap back in from the north and west. A race between the cold and the end of the precipitation makes it uncertain as to whether or not a period of snow will occur Friday night. Either way, we may see additional periods of snow on Saturday as an upper low pressure area comes across the region in a newly arrived cold air mass, with a surface low sitting just offshore. This should clear out on Sunday, and early next week (Christmas Eve & Christmas Day) should also be cold and mainly dry, though we will need to watch the orientation of the wind field as an ocean wind may set up and bring in ocean effect snow showers. There are many days to fine tune this.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers except rain or snow showers in areas well north and west of Boston. Lows 33-38. Wind W increasing to 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Isolated rain or snow showers. Highs 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with gusts around 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the upper 10s inland valleys to middle 20s coast. Wind NW to N decreasing to around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs around 40. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with mix to rain morning. Mostly cloudy with rain showers afternoon. Variably cloudy with rain showers changing to snow showers at night. Low 32. High 50.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow. Low 24. High 33.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of light snow showers. Low 22. High 35.

MONDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly cloudy. Low 18. High 37.

TUESDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Partly sunny. Low 17. High 33.

160 thoughts on “Looking To Christmas”

    1. Yes. We may. I think we at least coat the ground in many areas Saturday based on how I’ve worked out this prognostication.

  2. Thanks TK! Hope you’re feeling all better! Will have to keep an eye on the weekend snow. Plan to do some traveling to visit family.
    Looks like my son “Got out of Dodge” in time to dodge Chicago’s snow event this week. He driving home with his girl, but at least they’re doing it in two days. No wonder I have so many grays 🙂

  4. I have come to the conclusion that there are too many runs of too many models.

    It’s taking the science out of forecasting. And that’s a shame.

    There’s a reason I don’t acknowledge every run of every model every 6 hours. It’s just too much information, and it doesn’t really aid in making a forecast. It only adds more doubt, question, and uncertainty. We’re trying to forecast too far into the future while forgetting the current weather and nearer future. Why does it matter more what it may do on December 27 than this Friday? I’m just not getting it.

    I’m not talking about the readers here, speculating and chatting. That’s fine. I encourage it. I’m talking about forecast centers that are supposedly “official” and there to give information to the public. Instead they are being run like a political party, their views highly skewed to one side or another instead of just giving information for the sake of just needing to know what to expect in a given area at a given time of day on a given day.

    And multiply that silliness by the 10,001 online forecasting centers (most of which are run by non-meteorologists) and now we have an online version of what the real storm chasers went through after “Twister” started the storm chasing fad. It’s a big mess. Nobody knows who to believe anymore…

  5. Thanks TK !

    Looks like northern Maine is sitting under moderate to heavy wet snow since last evening. Will be interested to see the snow totals, once they update.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Of course I am going to bring up models and anyone notice about a 400 mile shift east on the GFS for post Xmas storm.

    1. West unless the Bermuda high relents enough then we have a storm. Either way, it’s not going to travel the Appalachian Trail.

  8. Thanks TK – I hope you are feeling better and resting and that everyone in your family stays healthy as well!

  11. Thanks TK…it sure was raw waiting for the bell to ring this morning at my son’s school. But I’d endure that anyday knowing that at least I am fortunate enough to be bringing my son to school today.

  13. When these patterns lock in they are very tough to break. I don’t think winter shows up until sometime in January.

    1. probably later J.J.

      I thought Jan. back in the Fall but I’m thinking maybe February currently. Should I stick to my original call? I’m feeling like a chicken now. 🙂

  16. From Matt Noyes:
    8_TO_14_DAY_TEMPS
    The awaited transition to colder weather continues – and the United States will plunge deeper into winter air in the time period between Christmas and the New Year (as always, click on images to enlarge). I continue to see this as a plunge to colder weather that – for the Northeastern United States – will last into the New Year. As the jet stream winds aloft sag southward in this period, the door will open for cold Canadian air to dive across the Plains and through the nation’s mid-section, making a deep intrusion to the Southeastern United States in the first half of the period, then relaxing in the second half. In the Northeast, there will be some temperature fluctuations associated with an active storm track, but many of the days in this period should actually feature near-normal temperatures, and that is the forecast for the Northeast averaged over the period.

    8_TO_14_DAY_PRECIP
    I have fairly high confidence that this pattern will result in at least one sizeable storm for the Northeast, responsible for heavy snow in at least Northern and…this time…Central New England. Southern New England is likely to at least see a wintry mix but certainly may be in the game for snow – at least for some in Southern New England – as the storm track nudges south of where it’s been through mid-December. Of course, this slight southward suppression of the storm track is logical not only because of the evolving jet stream pattern and establishing cold air, but also because of the developing snowpack in the North Country of New England. A snowpack helps to hold cold air in place, or more accurately, resists incoming surges of warmth. That said, the lack of below normal cold in the Northeast is the reason I can’t promise snow for all of Southern New England, at least not with the storm slated for December 26/27. I do expect above normal precipitation, regardless, owing to the continued active flow of disturbances from the Pacific Ocean, interacting with baroclinicity resulting from the southward surges of cold air.

    1. What an optimist! 😀

      We shall see. I’ll believe when I see it. It was continually promised
      last year until there was no more Winter left! LOL

      😀 😀 😀

    2. Even that scenario would represent rain on the coastal plain for sure and
      probably a fair amount inland as well. Unless, as Retrac says, the coastal
      intensifies rapidly and also doesn’t hug the coast. That set up looks to me
      that the coastal would be TOO close to shore regardless of intensification.

        1. not to mention, how often to we see legit coastal redevelopment jump to the coast with a low track that far west?

  18. Watching a chance of a sneaky event on x-mas day, doubt it happens but I think it has major imoplications on our weather, ie bringing in cold air. Something is telling me that the 27-29 will be a big storm for central and northern NE and really something to watch for us in SNE. For some reason I am just thinking something will happen.

    I was in Burma last year and they are the most Buddist country in the world and they really believe in the power of positive mind set so let’s all do that 🙂

    1. I saw that on the GFS run this morning and thought the same thing. It’ll probably be the first time ever I’m not rooting for snow since my wife is begging me to break out the snow gun for Christmas. It’s really cool to watch and not as much fun with snow already on the ground!

  19. Elliot Abrhams on his morning video was mentioning about that sneaky event you are referring to Hadi.
    I’ll believe the pattern change when I see it.

  23. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB

    Cold & dry weekend. Possible revision for Christmas Eve or Christmas Day…I’m not sure yet. I ‘ll know more later.
    Expand

  24. That storm for the 27-29th has been consistently shown by the models for some time now and it looks sizable. Confidence in an event for this time period is well above where it would normally be over a week out. Where it tracks is the question but I think Matt Noyes hit it on the head. We are trending colder starting this weekend and cold air will be diving farther south and east than we have seen it do in some time. With this pattern, the storm track is going to start to shift east but the shift is going to be more gradual. I agree this one hugs the coast and creates a significant snowstorm for PA, Upstate NY, and Central/Northern NE. Mixed bag and/or rain for SNE. This one could really give the ski areas in northern NE a well needed dump as we head into peak season. I’ll be keeping my eyes on this one as I will be in Upstate NY during the holiday week!

    SNE should start getting into some better snow chances after the first of the year. As Hadi said, it’s just a matter of getting some more sustained cold air in here and then we are in business. It doesn’t need to be arctic cold, just cold enough!

  25. We keep saying that the pattern is changing. Pattern does not appear to be changing dramatically. I hate to say it. This reminds me a lot of last year when we kept saying that the pattern is changing and it never did. Hopefully that doesn’t keep happening.

    2. As I said in an earlier post I’ll believe the pattern change when I see it. It was suppose to be after Thanksgiving that did not
      happen as well as mid December.

    3. That’s what I was reading when I went back to the posts on this blog this time last year. Remember, everyone got so frustrated that we had everyone predict when the pattern would actually change. I think we were into February and had said several times it had changed only to realize it hadn’t when everyone gave up.

      PS – not saying this is the same as last year – just that the discussion is identical

  26. Hmmm…..

    The sneaky system Hadi describes looks to be featured with the 12Z GFS for
    Christmas morning:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121219%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_138_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=138&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F19%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=69&nextImage=yes

    1. There’s certainly some possibility with this. Looks like a quick burst of an inch or two to me. Lets see if it holds.

      The one after Christmas is back where it makes more sense as a big lakes cutter.

      1. Where did this come from? Out of the Blue. 😀

        I’m thinking future runs increase qpf for this.

        Later….

  29. Bring out the tug boats if the 12z GFS is right, bc that’s a lot of rain!!! Rain all the way up to northern Maine….

  30. One system that looks good at the moment for a little snow and another one is a big UGH from the latest run of the GFS. Will see what the EURO has to say.
    Looks like the NAO is going negative, the AO is negative, and the PNA looks to be heading towards neutral.

  31. im not buying that small chance of snow on christmas morning…. i think it will slide way to far south for one thing. two i think we are going to be in a cold and dry patter
    I also think the precipitation for the friday event will start and end as a wintry mix but will mainly be rain. with areas outside of 495 possibly getting some accumulations before it ends on saturday early morning. i think it we will have Areas not even reach 32 degrees the first part of next week.

  32. That’s the only model depicting that christmas morning disturbance. I’ll be happier when other models begin to show it. Not to keen on 12z gfs.

  34. NWS at Taunton is clued in!

    MON INTO TUE…
    HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUE.
    TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL…BUT WILL ADJUST
    WARMER CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE E.

    OR perhaps they know more than we do? 😀

  37. I think the after Christmas storm will be a rain for I95 areas and snow further inland, it’s a little early so will c

  38. The 12z GFS is garbage.

    It would be beautiful for xmas day with a quick inch or two, not only on the ground but also falling from the sky. But I don’t buy it unless we start to see some more model support.

    I also don’t buy how it is handling the 12/27 storm. Does anyone really think this storm is going to track from Louisiana due north to Michigan and then transfer energy to a second storm over NJ? Heavy snow in Atlanta while it is raining in Toronto? I guess anything is possible but this does not seem plausible. Keep in mind the 0z run had the parent storm form over Florida and track north up the coast with no energy transfer. This model is shifting hundreds of miles with every run. Far too early to zero in on exact track but no way this is a Lakes Cutter. There will be coastal storm development somewhere and someone in the interior NE will get a lot of snow out of this.

  39. I agree Mark!! I will be up in Maine so I will see what happens up there.

    and yes I agree with Charlie for once 🙂

    1. Wundermap 12/19 12Z Map not available at this time.
      In anycase, 850 temps plenty cold enough. Looks like something
      in the order of 1-3 or 2-4 inches.

      1. Wundermap drives me nuts sometimes. Its always full of bugs. I did notice they changed the scale on the snowfall function though. What used to show up in blue and greens for anything over 6 in’, theres very suttle differences in pinks that go all the way up to 6”, very tough to tell

    1. Now you may be on to something. But let’s see if it’s in the picture tomorrow. This is 6 days away:(

    2. Confusion……doesnt the date on the bottom of the run give the date that it says its valid for. The date I’m reading is 12/17 which is this past Monday ????

      1. Tom, are u using a phone to view it? That happens to me every time I use my phone to look at links, it gives me the wrong one. On my PC, its the right one. Its weird.

    1. There’s always hope but not buying into it yet. I feel the storm will be too weak and suppressed too far south to give us measurable snowfall. Waiting for future runs.

  43. EURO still showing post xmas storm as a huge GLC, moving even more west on that run. Curious to see if the ensembles agree. I feel like it would have caught on to this “Rex Block” by now. Not even showing coastal development. It sure does usher in the cold though.

  44. Wxrisk.com · 29,241 like this
    23 minutes ago ·

    MIDDAY UPDATE — THE 12Z WEATHER MODELS — the GFS and the European — and DEC 26 – 27

    Clearly the 12Z model runs have shifted the track of the Big Low back to the west. Course that is not to say that the shift back to the west is correct BUT it clearly is what the 12Z GFS and the ECMWF models are depicting. For those of you who are not weather geeks… to get a big / East Coast snowstorm you want the SURFACE Low to track just offshore in a NE or NNE direction…. say for example from Eastern North Carolina to Cape Cod Mass. Clearly that is not what the GFS Model or its ensembles are showing.

    There are several important features in the Upper levels of the atmosphere (500 mb ) which do support a more east track of the system so I have not yet given up… decided that this is going to be truly a Midwest track. It’s still 6 or 7 days
    away.

    KEY POINT…. I believe that the current winter storm about to go of the Midwest and the Great Lakes will be the key feature for the DEC 26 27 event . By December 22 this Low will be over southeastern Canada where it will stall and interact with the “Bubbe of High pressure ” that is trapped over Hudson’s bay area.

    My primary concern now for the northeast areas **** between the mountains and the coast… for DEC 26-27 is ICE.

    IF …IF … the Low comes from the Delta into say KY or OH …. the Atmosphere will be too warm above 3,000 feet for any snow to fall over the Middle Atlantic states (if you do not know which states are in the Middle Atlantic region PLEASE go back to high school — and stop voting ) .

    BUT … cold HIGH pressure North west of the Great Lakes… North of the Great lakes and Northeast of the Great Lakes … will still be in position sending down low level cold air on north winds. This would set up a ICE situation DEC 26-27 and possibly a significant ice storm for the INLAND areas between the mountains and the I-95 big cities.

    Some areas that MIGHT be affected by this POSSIBLE scenario would be the entire Shenandoah Valley from Roanoke to Winchester … All of Central Maryland including places such as Frederick and Hagerstown… Harrisburg Reading Gettysburg Lancaster your Allentown… The northwest third of New Jersey and the lower half of the Hudson Valley in Southern New York and interior portions of Connecticut and Rhode Island.

    In addition… If we ASSUME that the GFS and European ensembles are correct.. the Low WILL jump over the mountains once it reaches OH and redevelop along the northeast coast. This would still cause a significant snowfall for much of the interior portions of the PA NY state and much of New England.

    (just because YOU dint happen to have 3 feet or snow on your back porch doesnt mean nothing is happening …)

    Now for those of you and the Midwest… The current model data this afternoon from both the GFS and the European clearly show another major snowstorm this one colder and further south than the one the hitting the Midwest and the next 36 hours.
    The model data clearly shows a major snowstorm possibly a historic one for Kansas City to St. Louis to Chicago. I don’t happen to think that scenario is correct but they cannot be ruled out

    1. I was in his camp for a while when u turned me on to his FB page, but I think he’s reaching now. Very intelligent analysis though. I’ve decided to not even look at the models solutions for that storm till the weekend at the earliest. It’s too far away and too many variables. Focusing on the near term and possible touch of snow on Xmas day 🙂

  48. The only thing with a pattern like this, for every 1 person that wants the snow u have 5 people that don’t want to see any snow

  49. Maybe someone smarter than yours truly can explain this to me…Basic science tell us that a high pressure of 1037 anchored over Canada should not allow the low to track the way the EURO tracks it. This is what I am not getting, makes no sense to me how that happens. This is what is making me hesitant about the post x-mas storm.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=192

    1. Hadi,

      I’m betting you’re way smarter than me but to weigh in on your question, the Low is going to the west or weakest part of that ridge to the north.

    2. Correct Hadi. BEFORE the storm is the key, but just prior to the storm arriving, the High retreats thus allowing the storm to cut. This happens all the time in New England where we get a couple of really cold days followed by a snow to rainstorm the very next day.

    1. I wish we had upper air charts from the Euro for this time Frame.

      In looking at the Canadian for example, the upper winds are blasting
      South to North, taking this thing right up into Canada, way West of us.

      1. Think of the atmosphere as always having a gutter depression in it like in a bowling lane. The gutter now just happens to be through the lakes. It’ll take some major remodeling to move the gutter our way.

  52. It seems if we don’t get that touch of snow for Christmas were going to wait a while for another shot at snow.
    The NAO is forecasted to be negative around the time of the bigger storm threat but I am guessing its that the negative NAO is east based and why the models show an inside runner.

  53. JB Tweet

    204 hr ECMWF has storm north of Lake Huron. Ensembles near cape Cod. O well whats 800 miles among friends

    1. Who is JB? Joe Bastardi?

      If there is that much discrepancy between the operational run
      and the ensembles, then something Major is going on here. 😀

    2. Hadi,

      I’ll take a guess to your question above, but will defer to others for the official answer.

      So, with a deep trof in the central USA and a ridge to its east, at the northeastern part of that ridge, there may be confluent flow aloft, where air is coming together between the ridge to the southwest and an upper low to the northeast. So, the air comes together and and has to sink creating high pressure at the surface. However, as the overall upper flow is progressive, everything is allowed to progress eastward, as opposed to the high being able to be bridged back from the Maritimes to north of the great lakes.

      Maybe ?? I’m probably a million miles off !! 🙂 🙂

  54. Joe Bastardi… Yes OS that’s why i am so skeptical. But I am not nearly knowledgeable enough to figure out the differences.

    1. OS, why is the strength of the low presure system so much weaker on the ensemble mean run? I have noticed this with each ensemble run i view.

      1. Good question. Not sure.

        Perhaps some of the ensembles have the system fighting
        the big High to the North. Plus it is in the process of
        redeveloping, but doesn’t really get going much.

        Very interesting situation.

        I am not skilled enough in this area to give a real answer.
        The above are just some thoughts.

  57. Thanks Tom. I am just not skilled enough to understand the subtle difference. But I do see what you are saying.

    OS I think op runs seem to over amplify storms more than the ensemble runs, but again I am not skilled enough on these differences. This is where we need TK or JMA to jump in and educate us 🙂

      1. All I know is that for each ensemble run a or some parameter(s) is/are changed slightly to see how it affects the run. Presumably
        to have a hedge in case the operational initialization was off?

        In the past, reviewing technical discussions, the more ensembles
        that were on track for an event, the better chance the event had
        to materialize. In other words, the ingredients were such, that
        even slight changes, still produced the event, increasing confidence.

        Therefore, with this event, I would say it is jut the opposite,
        confidence in the Operational run must therefore be LOW!
        😀

    2. Hadi,

      I don’t think it is that. As you say, the algorithms produce different results,
      depending on the exact input parameters.

    1. It was lovely, wasn’t it and what a blustery day. We may not have snow but it felt like winter with the wind whipping around!!

  60. I don’t spend as much time looking at models as I once did. So today I looked. What I see post Xmas, at best for snow lovers, is an inside runner and even that might not come true. For this thing to come up the coast and pick up moisture, the Atlantic ridge has to give way somewhat and we need the high in Canada to reposition itself slightly. At this point, fun to watch BUT no way can any one of these models be correct. They’re all over the place and though I haven’t looked, they’re probably showing and will show shifts every 24 hours. (I don’t how much value to attribute to 6 & 12 hour chnages.) Anyway I always like winters with a few 6-10 inchers and one gigantic snow bomb. So I’m a prayin’.

      1. As much as I love a good snowstorm, it might not be the worst thing for a Christmas Day/post-Christmas day storm to fizzle out allowing everyone safe travel to and from their holiday destinations.

        1. A couple of inches Christmas eve/day would be nice. Doesn’t take much to make it look like a winter wonderland.

        2. I agree shotime. There are so many families trying to connect and then people like our John who would be called to work. I realized today as I was out and about in the wind and chill that I am not sure I have measured a New England Christmas by the amount of snow as much as the winter feel. The only times I’ve felt it wasn’t a New England Christmas were the few unusually warm ones

    1. Lol. Hadi. You’re like Charlie but with a bias for snow;) Keep wishing. I’m with you and hope we get snow as well but let’s be serious.

  65. There is a red flag flying here and it is jammed into the GFS. This model is so inconsistent in the longer range it’s scary to even watch.

    Another red flag is that some weather outlets seem to be siding with whichever model shows the greatest risk of a big snowstorm.

    We’re heading back to the pattern we were in during November. But it may happen with some fanfare on Friday. Update soon…

      1. That thing Friday is gonna crank up west of us and we will warm-sector. In fact I’m putting high winds and possible t-storms in the forecast. We do flip quickly the other way Friday night & Saturday when the cold air pours in. I had forecast “periods of snow” for Saturday thinking the surface low may end up just east of us but it looks like maybe it ends up just too far north for more than just snow showers Saturday.

        The wave for Monday night/Tuesday may be under-forecast by the models, but there is a whole lot of time to figure that out. I’m not even touching the “after Christmas storm” other than just saying there is potential storminess in the December 26-28 period and it’s just too early to tell anything about a track/precip.

        1. Under forecast meaning measurable snow. Man that would ruin Christmas here bigtime. It would take not much at all for a snow call, I mean sugercoat.

        2. We had thunder last December 22. Maybe we will have thunder on the 21st this year to celebrate the non end of the world 😉

      2. Harvey said on Fridays rain storm the wind will be the factor and that watches will probably be posted. I know people want snow for Xmas but for people like me who havto remove it, it would suck to be removed from the family on that day.

  66. Woods Hill Weather blog field trip to northern Maine to get a fill of snow. 🙂 looking at the totals, they got clobbered !

    Unbelieveable that there’s a decent NW wind flow in New England and its in the 30s and low 40s, even to the Canadian Border. Dec. 19th, unreal !

    2. Tom u read my mind about the temps today and even now. Storm/front goes by and brings down NW winds, we should be COLD. It is amazing

  67. Alisonarod I am just giving the model output. I have no faith in the GFS. I will also be in Maine so impact is very different.

  68. I’ve got the 18Z blues. D:

    Hadi beat me to it by a long shot. It is the 18Z GFS afterall, but it offers
    something for the post-Christmas storm. But it swapped one thing for another,
    as it eliminated the short-lived Christmas morning event. 😀

    1. Being selfish I’ll take that. I took a vacation day but would take snow that day. Pete is saying no snow for either event. Harvey was leaning towards no big deal at all for Christmas day if even anything he said. Second storm he said is eight days away and was not going there.

  70. Did anyone else see a very bright shooting star around 7:30 tonight? Saw it in Sharon driving home. It looked bigger and brighter than any one ive ever seen, and had a distinct tail traveling quickly across the sky. It was def not a plane as it dissappeared shortly after. Went on a meteor report website when i got home and saw a report at that same time from Brockton. Someone else saw something too, i thought i was going crazy.

    2. I remember hearing that ‘GW’ would result in more snow in the Northeast.

      The theory behind this is stated in the article.

      The actual cause would be an induced -AO as it warmed in the Arctic (regardless of cause), forcing colder air and storms southward.

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