Rolling Through Changes

233 Comments

8:37PM

The transitional pattern continues…

Short term: Low pressure offshore to the east of southern New England has taken its time getting out of here, and one lobe of moisture may bring some rain showers to the South Shore of MA and parts of Cape Cod tonight.

Thursday & Friday split pair: Narrow high pressure will bring a slice of nice weather Thursday, though a bit cool. Low pressure will track northeastward from the Midwest into NY then down the St. Lawrence Valley Friday, redeveloping Friday night just east of New England. Ahead of the initial storm will come a period of rain which may be mixed with snow in some interior areas as cold air hangs on in the early stages of the storm Friday morning. By Friday noontime the warm sector will have enveloped all of southern New England. During this time a period of strong southeast to south winds will take place with the potential for some wind damage. As a cold front charges eastward across southern New England on Friday afternoon, a band of heavier rain and possible thunderstorms will take place, and may result in some additional wind damage and local flooding. Once this is by, a rush of drier and colder air will come in from the west Friday night.

Weekend: This colder air will make it possible for some wrap around moisture to produce snow showers Saturday. Weak high pressure should bring dry conditions and chilly air to the region on Sunday.

Christmas Eve & Christmas Day: It is far away, but the previous dry/cold outlook has to be replaced with a threat of a period of snow as a wave of low pressure passing just to the south of the region may be enough to throw some moisture into some cold air in place for a period of snow in some areas. Will this be enough for a white Christmas (defined as 1 inch or more of snow on the ground)? We’ll see.

In the mean time, the updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A few rain showers along the South Shore of MA and over Cape Cod early. Lows 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Light rain and snow possible before dawn. Lows 30-35. Wind light variable to E.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of light rain/snow early, a few rain showers later morning-midday, then a band of rain and possible thunderstorms pushing west to east through the region in the afternoon. Highs from the middle 40s well to the northwest to the middle 50s over Cape Cod. Wind E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to south and increasing to 15-35 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH especially late morning through early afternoon, then shifting to SW 10-20 MPH in the afternoon, then W 15-25 MPH by sunset.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain and snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 36.

MONDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly sunny. Chance of snow at night. Low 18. High 34.

TUESDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow in the morning. Low 20. High 33.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow or rain. Low 27. High 37.

233 thoughts on “Rolling Through Changes”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Friday’s weather sounds like fun !! And the idea of a little snow on Christmas morning would be perfect !! I cant recall the last time snow fell on Christmas.

    1. Wow so much for the blow up decorations. Our neighbor has a cute Santa in a hot air balloon I thought was going to take off tonight.

  3. Could you define some areas for the snow. Sweating bullets bigtime here. Although I called for snow before Xmas, did not want it those two days.

    1. 6 days away, it’s a bit early for areas, but I could see MA/CT/RI getting minor accumulation out of it, based on guidance that I believe has a decent idea.

    1. i have to take the second Bio then chem 1+2 then physics… also math is not my strongest subject. expecially if i am hoping to pull off a C or b- in math. :/

    1. I have mixed rest with stuff to do. I take my mom shopping alot as my dad can’t drive any longer. This is my favorite time of year and I go out alot to various favorite places, but also spend a lot of time watching my favorite Christmas specials and movies and listening to my favorite holiday music.

      I am feeling better. The sinus part of this goes on and on and the cough lingers, but the worst is done. 🙂

      1. Ugh. I hope it goes away. But time with your mom and special activites and christmas specials and music are what it’s all about !!

    1. This is awfully close on the 0Z NAM:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20121220%2F00%2Fnam_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=048&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F20%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=39&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

    1. Well said Ace! Something is certainly up.

      Let’s see what the 0Z Operational run has to say along with the 0z GFS
      and Canadian. Perhaps a consensus will develop? 😀

  10. Thanks TK for the update. I am keeping my fingers crossed for that Christmas Eve night/Day snow. Too many times in the past something always goes wrong as we get closer. Of course when warm rains are predicted, THAT never fails. 😉

    So far Pete has full confidence that the next Wednesday-Thursday storm will be a rainy one. 🙁

    TK, what are your thoughts about the dreaded SE ridge ever breaking down and if/when it does, will it be just temporary?

    Continue to get better soon for Christmas & New Year’s TK! 🙂

    1. We may never completely lose that ridge, but I think with time it’s less of a factor. Not saying we open the door to lots and lots of snow. We have to wait a year for that I think. 😉

    1. I am assuming you are talking about the blue/green meteor at 8:21PM last Saturday evening. Saw that from the Burlington/Woburn line in the northwest sky, appearing to drop Earth-ward. It was spectacular.

    2. I asked my kids if they’d seen it. But they were in Millis looking at the Christmas lights and didn’t. How great that you got to.

  13. Nam and GFS not too far off from each other Fri night at 48 and 45 hours respectively. A switch to a brief period of snow?

  15. Hmmm on the 00Z GFS for the post Xmas storm, that’s all I gotta say! I know I said I wasn’t gonna look at any guidance on that till the weekend, but I can’t help it when the carrot is there begging me to take it!

    1. One run of a very unstable model.

      It’s pretty to look at, but that won’t happen. At least it’s trending in the right direction…

      1. Unstable? Just 12 hours ago it had the low tracking from Louisiana to Michigan. That’s only a mere 800 mile shift in track…

        At least it is getting the right picture now and shifting the track farther east, though probably too far south and east. Wasn’t buying the big lakes cutter solution. I think the models were over-amplifying that Christmas storm which then tracked past the maritimes and stalled out due to the block – this was in turn blocking the eastern movement of the post Christmas storm and contributing to the lakes cutter solution. If this latest run is correct and that Christmas storm is a non-event, I believe it favors a more easterly track for the second storm, closer to the coast.

  16. I know yesterday fealt chilly because of the breeze, however, it was another day of +7 to +11F temp anomolies for the 4 reporting southern New England climo stations.

    Today, already above normal because this morning’s lows are a good +5 to 7F above average. The day’s highest temps might be around midnight tonight and thn tomorrow, with the mild to warm sector, its probably a +10F to +15F day.

    The Dec 2011 anomoly was +5.3F. Its going to be close.

    1. I might add that TK beat many of the TV stations to the punch on Saturday’s high temps. He has 40F and as of this morning, many of the stations now are around or a little above 40F. I think that a few days ago, I thought I saw the TV stations showing Saturday to be in the mid 30s………..As seems to be the new norm, as you get closer to the cold’s arrival, we’re always backing off on the depth of the chill.

  18. The Euro NAO outlook is unstable too, yesterday very negative for the second half of the period. Today neutral!

  19. Nothing is stable about any of these runs. Once again I am thinking that high in Canada is going to push this storm south and further east. You already see the trend on the Euro as it has shifted. And clearly the GFS has as well. I also believe the GGEM is also showing a similar solution.

  20. Curious – two (potentially) thundery winter solstices in a row. I wonder, if we do have thunder and lightning, how it will affect the Myan believers.

    Sue am I remembering incorrectly? I think you have a special day tomorrow??

    1. Not me Vicki….must be someone else on the blog. What was that you were saying about your short term memory? 🙂

      1. Hmmm in this case it’d be my calendar that has a problem…..nothing to do with the person who feeds it information of course.

  21. Incredible blizzard conditions in a good part of the country with the potential for very severe weather in a good portion to our south. Shotime I do hope your son and his girl have arrived safely.

  22. Thanks, TK.

    And congrats Matt!

    Tomorrow looks to be interesting and ‘though a white Christmas would be nice, I am hoping that the weather stays good for John and all those that have to travel around and on Christmas.

    Winter will soon be official – still plenty of time for snow. Who knows – maybe the models will all come together and accurately predict a nice snowstorm ( or a few) in Feb. and March!

  24. Model Dyslexia!!

    Just goes to show you how complicated our atmosphere is.
    As sophisticated as these models are, they still can’t handle certain
    situations and this post-Christmas storm I guess is one.

    Model divergence galore.

    Canadian depicts a direct hit.
    Euro calling for a HUGE inside runner/almost cutter.
    GFS is OTS

    Pretty pathetic.

    I guess we just wait and see. 😀

    OH, btw, the GFS has the little Christmas affair back again.

    1. 0z GFS was a direct hit as well with a general 5-10″ snowfall across SNE. Can’t take any stock in the 6z run this far out. The 0z and 12z runs are bad enough!

        1. If you took the 00z GFS verbatim then yes it would paint 5-10 inches. Not likely but if you are go by what it’s saying then Mark was correct.

  25. one thing that i would watch for for the possible light snow event on christmas. cold air =dry air. very cold air will be in place thus making the air dry. Dry air= long time before precipiation can fall as it dries up in the atmosphere. also all togeather this thing could just go to our south as well and just give the cape and islands some clouds 😉

    2. Does your best guess tell you snow or no snow for Christmas. Anything over a flurry would be bad for me. Not being selfish but my son is only eight, and still a believer in Santa. Would be tough to not be there.

      1. Tough call John.

        There is a chance for sure. But there is a chance that
        nothing will happen. Still 5 days out. We’ll keep watching.

        1. John,

          Let’s have a look at all of the 12Z Guidance.
          If the Euro, Canadian and GFS all have something
          for Christmas Day, then the chances go up. If there
          is still divergence, then we still won’t know anything.

          1. From NWS earlier this morning:

            TUE…
            SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS WEAK LOW TRACKS TO
            THE SOUTH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE
            GRIDS. GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGRESSIVE AND LOW AMPLITUDE
            ONLY LIGHT QPF EVENT EXPECTED IF IT MATERIALIZES.

      2. watch the dewpoint john. the lower, the better if you don’t want anything more than a flurry with this potential non-event.

  27. Current Northeast US Snow Depth Map:
    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/nerfc/graphics/snowmaps/sd1_today.jpg

    Starting to build a nice snowpack in western/northern Maine but VT and especially Upstate NY (including the Adirondacks) are basically devoid of snow. I will be in Rome, NY for the first half of the holiday week, then Amsterdam (just NW of Albany) for the second half. I’m pretty hopefully for a white xmas up there after some lake effect gets going this weekend.

  28. We need some of this!!

    MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-SAUK-COLUMBIA-IOWA-DANE-LAFAYETTE-GREEN-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MONTELLO…BERLIN…BARABOO…PORTAGE…
    WISCONSIN DELLS…DODGEVILLE…MADISON…DARLINGTON…MONROE
    502 AM CST THU DEC 20 2012

    …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY…
    …BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
    CST TONIGHT…

    A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY. A
    BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
    CST TONIGHT.

    * TIMING…THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BEGIN BY MIDNIGHT AND
    DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW
    EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO ABOUT NOON THURSDAY.

    * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…12 TO 18 INCHES MOST AREAS. LOWER AMOUNTS IN
    GREEN COUNTY…WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. THUNDERSNOW WITH
    RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR.

    * WINDS…NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH
    ON THIS AFTERNOON…WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

  29. When you said “slice of nice weather” it made me picture the atmosphere as a pizza. LOL

    I hope there is some snow on Christmas 🙂 If not, we should get a snow maker machine 😉

  32. Some HPC info about the overall pattern next week

    UPSTREAM…AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY DIGS FROM THE WEST
    COAST CHRISTMAS EVE TO THE S-CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS
    WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND PCPN UNDERNEATH AND OVER SWD
    SURGED PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM REALLY IS EXPECTED TO
    DEEPEN MID-LATE WEEK OVER THE E-CENTRAL THE ERN US INTO A MAJOR
    WINTER STORM WITH AN EXPANDING HEAVIER PCPN SHIELD. THERE IS
    AMPLE ROOM FOR COLD AIR TO SETTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW AND
    DAMMED DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM

  34. This whole thing smells very fishy to me, I look back at past years and see a similar trend in what is being said prior to a storm. Now no two years are the same etc….but this screams a decent chance of snowstorm for the NE.

      1. For the post x-mas storm..

        12z GFS John brings no precip past the south coast. If this is what the final solution is you look good for x-mas day.

  35. Interesting morning of weather in Marshfield……

    waves of dark stratus or low top cumulus moving through depositing some decent intensity showers. When its light, its been rain, when the intensity picks up, its been very wet snow. A lot of the time, there’s a break near the sun and the light has been illuminating the precip. Kinda neat looking.

        1. A bad car accident as well. Also another humarock fire as well last night. The one in humarock last thursday was ruled arson.

          1. Didn’t see the car accident – bad time of year. There was another fire in humarock last week?? And wow that’s getting a bit scary.

  39. Looks like we get caught with a bit of a dry slot during the transfer, a lot of the juiciness is offshore but the low center hugs the coast

  40. Ok, ill shut up now and let the run finish, lol. I have this week off from work and im going crazy over here. I know i should be out xmas shopping but i cant bring myself to venture out yet.

    1. Isn’t it funny how you think you’ll get so much accomplished when you have time off and then before you know it the time is gone and not as much as you thought was accomplished?

  41. Yeah, Sure! I don’t believe you 12Z GFS!!!! 1-1.5 melted.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121220%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_216_precip_p48.gif&fcast=216&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&cycle=12%2F20%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=72&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

    2. Why don’t I believe it? Well, because it’s the GFS (Good For S**t). 😀

      Now, if the 12Z Euro and Canadian are on board, then I’ll get more excited.

      We Shall see.

    1. Hmmmmmm. There may be different definitions for nice. However, it isn’t winter yet. Today, however is a glorious late fall day 😀

        1. See the problem here is you can’t believe everything you see and should believe a lot you don’t see 🙂 🙂 😉

      1. I honestly don’t think anyone knows, John. Can you take a vacation day or is it too late? My best advice – don’t spend the lead up worrying because it won’t change a thing and the fun of anticipation is gone. I know that’s easy to say. If it snows Christmas we will not see our son on Christmas either.

        1. Any weather related event is mandatory. I’m off the day after Xmas maybe. It’s in my blood to worry. I really have a problem with this, but its my makeup. I’ll hope for the best and see how it plays out. It is what it is. Too boot though were hosting. Vicki I hope you have a wonderful Christmas with your family. I also hope that your will be with you and not working. Merry Christmas.

          1. I’ll hope for the same, John. Believe it or not, I am a horrible worrier. I think I got better at not worrying so much as I got older. Or my short term memory problem just makes me forget what I’m worrying about. Keeping my fingers crossed. Same for my son, BTW, as far as mandatory so I hear you.

  46. EURO ensembles are also more in line with the GFS, not perfect but getting much better.

    the GFS Ensembles look great as well.

  49. So all three major computer models have a different outcome…

    I think what happens with the clipper on Monday-Tuesday is key to the final outcome of the post x-mas storm. Way too much variance to make any assumptions.

    1. The EURO was wrong for the weather this week. A week ago it had a major east coast snow storm for a few runs i believe for this past tues’ rainstorm…

      1. It may have AceMaster, but I’m struggling to recall that. I just dont remember once looking at a EURO run this cold season and saying……….. wow, even the EURO thinks snow.

    2. To be honest the GFS had this storm nailed much sooner than the EURO did, but yes I need to see the EURO on board. Let’s see what the HPC has to say.

  51. IF the euro ensembles DON’T agree with this op run as in the last few runs, do u think for early forecast from the NWS they will weight the euro less in its forecast?

  55. The NAO is forecasted to be neutral next week. I think if we get a post Christmas storm it will be a mix to rain situation.

    1. Why?

      With a Negative NAO, we’ve been getting rain event after rain event after rain event. Maybe with it neutral to positive, we’ll get a snow event! 😀 😀

  56. IS Armageddon tomorrow?

    The 2012 phenomenon comprises a range of eschatological beliefs according to which cataclysmic or transformative events will occur on 21 December 2012.[1][2][3][4][5][6] This date is regarded as the end-date of a 5125-year-long cycle in the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar.[7] Various astronomical alignments and numerological formulae have been proposed as pertaining to this date, though none has been accepted by mainstream scholarship.
    A New Age interpretation of this transition is that the date marks the start of time in which Earth and its inhabitants may undergo a positive physical or spiritual transformation, and that 21 December 2012 may mark the beginning of a new era.[8] Others suggest that the date marks the end of the world or a similar catastrophe. Scenarios suggested for the end of the world include the arrival of the next solar maximum, an interaction between Earth and the black hole at the center of the galaxy,[9] or Earth’s collision with a planet called Nibiru

    If this forecast is anything like a typical GFS forecast, then FOGETTABOUTIT!

    😀

    2. There is a minor glitch. I don’t believe any of the stuff about tomorrow although I really like the beginning of a new era – I think we’ve pretty much mangled this one. I checked today to see what time this “event” is supposed to occur. It was moved from 6:00 pm to 11:11 pm. I am not an unusually superstitious person. I say knock on wood or something along those lines but no more.

      From the time I can remember I have had a phobia about 11:11 pm. To the point I won’t even look at the clock when it’s near. I’ve never understood why but got goosebumps when I saw the time 🙂

      1. hahaha, funny about the 11:11. I always thought of that time as lucky 🙂 My high school sweetheart used to say, “its 11:11, make a wish!”

  57. 12Z euro ensembles out, here is the mean at 168hrs. More east then the op run (western NY as opposed to over Long Island) but not in an ideal spot for snow around these parts. EURO ensembles have not agreed with op runs for a while now on this

    1. I thought yesterday the euro was saying a 970mb low coming through. Now it’s a 1002mb low. Has the intensity been changing? Am I way off on this?

      1. TK, I think that’s from the ensemble mean. I was mentioning this yesterday about why the low on the ensemble mean was weaker than on the op run. The only thing I can think of is that it’s the mean of all the ensembles, and that means (no pun intended) not only do they take the mean track of the low given all possibilities, but also the mean pressure of the low from all the ensembles.

  62. Ya know whats funny about the past few winters, even 2 years ago when we got all that snow? It was never easy. There was never a slam dunk, an extra point, an intentional walk, a penalty shot, a tap in birdie from 1 ft….there was always some ultra complicated set-up, rain/snow questions, dry slots, to phase or not to phase. For once i want a classic setup old fashioned NE snowstorm!

    1. hang on. Sooner or later it will come. If not this year, then next.

      btw, for me a 1 foot putt is NOT a tap in gimmie! 😀

      1. LOL, ive been known to miss a few of those too. Most of them though involved a number of adult beverages 😉

    2. Agree. I feel as if we could just look forward to the storm, anticipate its arrival and it would pretty much do as predicted. Short/long term memory problem again??

  63. Moline, IL : Heavy snow …. Visibility 1/4 mile ….. 30F …… NW Wind at 30 gusting to 47

    The NW flank of this low does have snow, but its in the upper 20s to low 30s, not exactly cold for the western Great Lakes region in mid December.

  64. …POTENTIAL STRONG WINDS AND POWER OUTAGES FRIDAY MORNING AND
    AFTERNOON…

    .AN OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
    TONIGHT INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY GENERATE STRONG
    WINDS AND ASSOCIATED POWER OUTAGES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
    AREA…WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AREA ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
    MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

    MAZ007-014>016-210430-
    /O.EXA.KBOX.HW.A.0006.121221T1000Z-121221T2100Z/
    EASTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
    EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…GLOUCESTER…CAMBRIDGE…BOSTON…
    QUINCY
    328 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012

    …HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
    AFTERNOON…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
    WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
    AFTERNOON.

    * WINDS…SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

    * TIMING…STRONGEST WINDS FRIDAY 11 AM TO 3 PM.

    * IMPACTS…WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD DOWN TREES AND
    POWERLINES…LEADING TO POWER OUTAGES. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO
    CAPABLE OF CAUSING SOME PROPERTY DAMAGE.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING
    WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MENTIONED AREAS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
    CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSING
    PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED…STAY INSIDE
    AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
    along with the cape and islands. southeast mass… and high wind warning up in northwest massachussetts

  65. This is a pretty potent storm system and I would not be surprised if there are scattered power outages across SNE especially if those heavier showers could bring down those winds to the surface.

        1. It’s an adventure. I haven’t figured out yet why my family doesn’t agree. Very odd. Well except for my grandson who insists on turning lights off when the power returns.

          2. Vicki, I’m the same way – a power outage is an adventure! I bought several bags of charcoal just before Sandy (which I didn’t use), we heat our home with wood via a fireplace insert, so that’s taken care of, and we have gas for hot water. Sometimes it’s nice to “unplug,” even if it’s out of our control!

      1. Could be some snow flakes in the air. Worst case scenario a dusting at this point. If we do get snow on Christmas
        it will be more picturesque than anything else.

        1. Really. That could work. Snow flying in the air with no accumulation would be awesome, I would not miss Christmas.

  67. So far the pattern looks like it’s transitioning as expected.

    The differences between Euro & GFS are not bothering me at this stage of the game. There’s a storm threat next week. We’ll work out the details within a reasonable amount of time.

    Hope everybody had a great day. 🙂

    Blog update in a while!

    1. Ok, with that statement TK, I hadnt given much thought to the Mayan prediction for tomorrow….but………..not a bad run…..GFS……and 18z run……..all in the same sentence, now I’m worried.

  69. Pretty decent analysis on the post xmas storm on wxrisk’s page. Simplified so all can understand. In summary, EURO is phasing 2 pieces of energy and doing it quickly pulling the energy more north. GFS no phase but that allows the southern piece of energy to deepen into a coastal storm up the coast.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-dXTLL_ezM

  70. There will be a nationwide moment of silence at 9:30 tomorrow morning. I know my grandsons school is participating and suspect most will. Many websites will also go black.

  71. Chicago is getting screwed with this winter storm. Its like pulling teeth trying to get snow in there! (like here). Its been raining the whole time, with 1-2 feet just 50 or so miles to their northwest. Just now changing over to snow but the heaviest precip is coming to an end. Its like when Boston gets all rain and the NW subs get all snow, and at the end of the storm by the time its cold enough to snow, we get the leftovers. I feel their pain.

    1. And I feel and have been saying that that’s the kind of winter I thought we were gonna get, it’s still early though

  72. Boy the 00z GFS looks nice and total opposite from the euro.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121221%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_159_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=159&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F21%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=485&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. Battle of the models continue! This run has the little xmas event too, a bit more moisture to work with but i still think just flakes to whiten the ground. My guess is the 00z euro wont show anything different than it has.

  73. Noticing 2 to 4 ft storm surge along the New Jersey shore this early morning. Not good with many areas not having natural sand barriers, etc to hold back some of the ocean.

  80. Joe Joyce mentioned this morning that the cold is looking to release in January. Wasn’t he saying in late October we were in for a snowy November?

  81. Harvey Tweet

    “@HarveyWCVB: There is the potential of a significant winter storm in the Wed. Nt./Thu. time frame of next week”

  83. As for the cold we were hearing the cold was coming last winter and it never happened. So far this year the same thing. The cold is there up in Alaska and western parts of Canada. We just need the jetstream to take the dip to send that cold into the U.S.

  84. I’m always amazed with the elevation nuances and snow.

    Inch at home at 900′. Nothing at work about four miles away at 600.

    I pinched myself this morning to see if we were still grounded on earth. Are all accounted for here this morning? Anyone hear from Vicki yet….who’s missing…

  86. Good Morning,

    Hope everyone made it through the end of the world okay…

    Anyone see the ensembles yet for euro or gfs? Old man winter definitely looks like he is going to make a run at us after Christmas. This setup reminds me of 2010 when everyone said winter was over pack it in and then Boom we got a huge blizzard day after Christmas and then storm after storm for 6 weeks. I have noticed on the gfs which we all know tends to be all over the place but again has been showing storm after storm for a while now. Also its been showing a pretty strong storm for the 1/2-1/3 dates.. I’m sure it will be a very snowy and active januaray and february.

    Have a great day!

    1. I totally agree. I have been saying that all along. When this winter is over people will be saying how bad it was. Storm after storm I agree. This winter will not be dry.

  87. It looks like a stormy day ahead. I know most of us want snow – but I am not sure I would want what they are having in the Midwest. Although, we’ve had many winter storms like that before – and we are likely to have more. And for the sake of “normalcy” if you can use that term in the world of weather, I do hope we get at least one big snowstorm this season. In any case, doppler radar looks impressive at this time with a band of heavy rain in CT moving to the northeast.

    I know it’s a bit far off in the future, but w/the possible storm nxt. wk., could that bring a lot of snow in the Boston area?

    1. It never ceases to amaze me that some media will make snowfall predictions more than 2 or 3 days in advance on a snow threat.

      1. I sure hope 5 is right tk. My wife and I are really nervous if it snows. When will you be updating to let us know.hope your feeling better.

    2. JR said there might be flurries in the air on Christmas morning with the possibility of a dusting. I listened to him at 6:00/6:30 and then when they break in during the today show.

  89. Its a weak system for Christmas. Interesting note from the NWS out of Upton NY saying that system came in a little stronger on the latest model runs.

    1. The fact that some of the precip. on the NAM’s radar simulation map for the end of the run looks almost cellular over the OH/TN Valley area indicates some “juice” available for the system to draw off of.

  90. In case you missed it above, the blog has been updated. See you there!

    I am at the start of a 5-day Christmas Weekend so I’ll be commenting and updating more frequently. 🙂

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