Springy Wind Welcomes Winter

372 Comments

8:37AM

A bit more spring-feeling today, even though the Winter Solstice occurred at 6:12AM. This will be due to a strong low pressure area winding up and passing well northwest of our region into Canada. A swath of rain, some heavy, will cross southern New England today. The heaviest band of rain is expected to move southwest to northeast across the forecast area between noon and 3PM. Winds will be the bigger story as gusts of 45 to 55 MPH may occur with winds shifting from E and SE to S and SW during the day. A slot of drier and behind it may result in a few breaks of sunshine before it sets. Tonight, colder air will really start to flow in around the back side of the low pressure system, and the coming weekend will be a chilly one. A few snow and rain showers may occur Saturday as an upper level low pressure area is still spinning around the region. Sunday will be a brighter day.

The Christmas Eve & Christmas Day period will be on the cold side and dry at least to start. The weather for later at night on Christmas Eve and for Christmas Day hinges on the track of a wave of low pressure passing south of New England.  It may be close enough to throw a swath of snow at least in to RI and parts of eastern MA. Would that be enough for a “white Christmas” for some areas? Time will tell.

Looking ahead, another storm threat exists for the middle of next week, but computer models have been all over the place with the track, as is not only normal for something that far out in time, but also normal for a pattern that is transitioning, as this one is (from mild and slightly wetter to colder and somewhat drier).

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Cloudy with rain through early afternoon including a band or 2 of heavier rain and possible thunder. Breaks in clouds mid to late afternoon may yield a bit of sun before sunset in some areas. Highs around 50. Winds E to SE 15-25 MPH shifting to S and SW, gusting as high as 45-55 MPH, relaxing a bit later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers early changing to snow showers late. Lows around 30. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to WNW.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow or rain showers. Highs 40-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Mostly sunny day. Clouds move in with a chance of light snow late at night. Low 18. High 34.

TUESDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow in the morning. Low 21. High 35.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine then clouds. Low 17. High 35.

THURSDAY: Chance of snow or rain. Low 30. High 40.

372 thoughts on “Springy Wind Welcomes Winter”

      1. Confidence is growing for a white Xmas for southern new england. Let’s see what the next couple of runs show. I feel that the weak disturbance comes just close enough and gathers just enough moisture to throw an inch or two of snow our way eve into day.

    1. We observed it at my work. I work in the technology center for a bank and I have never experienced this building being so quiet. It was very moving.

      1. My husband said it was the same at his office. My daughter and grandson are here. We also observed the moment of silence.

          1. We partner with MB (now of course a D+H Co) and do all of their case studies along with helping banks to better utilize the technology. My business partner presents during most of their webinars as well. I have never been impressed with a company as much as I have been with MB and with its founder Scott Happ.

  7. My eyes are turned to the post x-mas storm because it’s juicy and it’s close. No matter what happens here in SNE I am certain up in Maine it will be all snow.

    I guess its GFS vs. EURO and to be honest GFS has been handling the systems better the last week or so, but that doesn’t mean a thing for the next storm.

    1. No doubt that the Christmas day disturbance is nothing to dance about. However, it still may be a player since many are hoping for a white xmas around these parts. It doesn’t take much more than a trace to declare a white xmas for southern NE.

      The next storm looks juicy but still appears too warm. I’d like to continue to see a colder trend in the days to come. We are still 7 days away from that storm.

    2. Hadi, thats a huge shift for the EURO op run. It’s the first run the storm center has been east of say, Rochester NY. AND its the first run to transfer energy from a main low to one to the east. It just does the transfer too late as warm air has already flooded the region. Give it time but i think we’ve seen the last time the storm tracks through upstate NY.

  10. We got a rain storm coming for the day after Christmas for Boston and Providence areas, also I don’t consider a trace a white Christmas, there’s gotta be at least an inch, hope all is well everyone 😉

    2. All it takes is a little bit Charlie. Chicago ended its snowless streak last night with just a few tenths of an inch officially at O’Hare. That just sucks. You would have hoped they would end their drought with a blizzard.

  12. Hello all…I read this blog, but never posted before. I was amazed to see that the pansies I left in the container on my deck have bloomed! Anybody else have a similar experience? Again, thanks for the awesome blog.

  15. 12z NAM looks to keep us dry for Christmas.
    I would not be surprised if the 12z GFS keeps us dry as the high forces this weak system south.

  16. Those model run links you posted earlier Old Salty have a couple of low pressure centers that real deepen but over the fish.

    2. If that GFS verified, there would be considerable rain and/or sleet for a good chunk
      of SE MA and RI for the middle portion of the event.

  17. 12z GFS looks pretty good for at least a moderate snow. (this is usually when it all goes wrong right)

    At least we’re in the ballgame I think.

  20. Tis the season for Miracles to happen so maybe the latest run of the GFS is on to something here and will nail this one.

    1. good solid moderate event for at least the interior…possibly to Boston too. Will have to peek at column temps. Let’s freeze frame this.

  22. At least the GFS has been consistent showing something for the past several runs. and at least it hasn’t varied by 1000 miles per run. We seem to be between NYC and the benchmark now.

  24. Central NE will do well as I will be up there and counting on it 🙂

    retrac I think that’s a solid 3-6 for Boston and more inland. Track is far enough east to keep mostly snow.

    1. But, it also has the 2nd post-Christmas storm:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121221%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=264&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F21%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=1&nextImage=yes

      😀 😀 😀

    2. I’ll trade the Christmas Flurries for something bigger afterwards if that’s what it takes. (plus John wouldn’t have to go out)

        1. I’d like snow on Christmas too but before and not on. Too many families would be affected and I figure that is far more important than my desire for a white Christmas. That being said – wishing isn’t going to make one ounce of difference !

          1. At least if I get called in on xmas I would make a ton of money for a days pay. Everything would be doubled. But I’ll take my day with the family over the money, it is what it is.

          2. 1 to 3″ would have more of a positive effect for many more people than it would negatively impact. I have never heard of anyone route for it not to snow on Christmas (other than people that have to work).

    1. I’d keep that ughh meter handy J.J.–I’m pretty jaded now after last winter and what we’ve had so far this season.

      1. LOL. The event is almost two weeks away. I wouldn’t focus too hard on the 01/02 event let alone the 12/28 event.

  31. Harvey tweet

    @HarveyWCVB: A much stronger chance of a significant winter storm late Wed. into early Thu. of next week

  33. Don’t let the GFS fool you. It may have stopped moving that storm 400 miles either way with each run, but it’s overall depiction of the large scale pattern is still highly inconsistent run to run. How can you put any real stock in a model with that much difficulty just getting the general pattern right?

    Granted, the Euro has had a few issues itself but the pattern is transitional. This is when its better to rely less on guidance and even more than ever on meteorology.

    1. TK, i know theres a wide range of knowledge on here, but i think we could try and understand. Could u give some specifics on how the GFS isnt getting the general pattern correct? Is it placement of features? Temps? etc?

      1. I am not entirely sure why it does that. It has these runs when it is ok for a stretch of time, then the rest of the time it’s just all over the map (no pun intended).

        I could blame initialization but then you’d wonder why they didn’t catch/correct that issue. Perhaps it has something to do with the model resolution. I’ve gone looking for the answer but can never seem to find one that’s 100% solid.

  34. TK or anyone else that can answer:

    Could the Christmas Day system determine the track of the Wednesday-Thursday storm? I have heard in the past that sometimes one storm (no matter the size) can greatly affect the track and even intensity of other storms that follow.

    1. It can, but probably not greatly, as it will be a very low amplitude, progressive system.

      That said, it would not surprise me if it was laying pavement for the storm after it to follow. The models are still all over the place and to be honest I’m not comfortable getting into any particular camp with that storm track yet.

  36. Way too soon to allow the GFS to fool you almost 7 days out. I’m not jumping on the bandwagon just yet;) More interested in the mini xmas day storm which shows potential of dropping an inch or two.

    1. The potential for 1+ is pretty low. This is before I’d put amounts on it, but just basing it on speed and the moisture available I would not expect too much.

  38. a steady wind around 30 mph wind with gusts up to 40 with heivy rain. most of this will be done around 5pm i think.

      1. You guys are going to drive yourself nuts if you rely on every model run between now and then next seven days, lol.

        2. Not so. I just like watching a situation evolve and how
          the various models handle that evolving situation.

          When it is 7-10 days out, I know all too well how things can and do change.

          Still fun.

          1. I know you enjoy watching the models run to run and picking out trends. I love the discussions here about that. When I get ruffled is when the TV ppl stick info out about snow amounts days in advance based on a model run. Different story. Keep doing what you’re doing. 🙂

  41. Regarding any possible coastal snows, this reminder:

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Last Updated: Dec 21 2012, 10:04 am EST
    Fri, 21 Dec 2012 10:04:00 -0500
    Temperature: 47.7 °F (8.7 °C)
    Wind: East at 33.6 MPH (29.16 KT)
    Wind Chill: 38 F (3 C)
    Visibility: 1.10 miles
    MSL Pressure: 998.8 mb
    Water Temperature: 48.2 °F (9.0 °C)

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Dec 21 2012, 11:50 am EST
    Fri, 21 Dec 2012 11:50:00 -0500
    Temperature: 50.4 °F (10.2 °C)
    Dewpoint: 47.3 °F (8.5 °C)
    Wind: Southeast at 35.8 MPH (31.1 KT)
    Wind Chill: 42 F (6 C)
    MSL Pressure: 992.0 mb
    Water Temperature: 47.5 °F (8.6 °C)
    Wave Height: 4 m (13.12 ft)
    Dominant Period: 8 sec
    Average Period: 7.0 sec
    Mean Wave Direction: East (102 °)

  42. Well I can assume snow in Maine from either the GFS or EURO, but I think it brings in more precip probably based on that track.

  43. Plenty of time to watch these potential storm threats. This will change many times. Were probably not going to have a good idea what is going to happen until 24-36 hours prior to the event or non event.

    1. I remember 2 years ago i stayed up late on xmas eve to see the 00z runs come out for the potential post Xmas storm which 48 hours before the event models were still all over the place as far as track goes and rain/snow questions, etc. Wasn’t till those runs was it apparent we would get slammed. And even then we got more than expected. This seems like a similar situation, hoping for the same result 😀

  46. Wxrisk.com
    ‎** ALERT ** 12Z FRIDAY EURO COMING COLDER.. A TAD FURTHER E AST… AT 120 HRS DEC 26 the MODEL shows more cold air over VA and alot more cold air damming signatures

    EURO GOES WOOF

    1. Wxrisk.com at 120 hrs to 132 the 500 NB Low– the UPPER LOW — comes MUCH FURTHER E AST and cuts right across VA … reaching the chessay bay BY 7PM DEC 25 ( 132HRS) .

      ** THIS IS MAJOR SHIFT IN THE EURO MOEL as it is NO Longer taking the Low due North up to ALB or Syracuse which is what the last several runs were doing …

    2. Wxrisk.com in fact the 12z GFS and EURO models for 7PM DEC 26 132 looks darn close to identical. all OF northwest VA would stay SNOW and there would be more ICE over far nw NC and all of sw …west central and N VA on this run of the euro.
      ALL of VA EAST of I-81 goes over to rain..

      DCA BWI PHl central and southern NJ would see snow to ice / rain then snow at the end… Interior se PA and central MD would stay all SNOW… Hagerstown Reading Allentown and all of nw NJ.

      se NEW ENGLAND see a change over to rain but inland all of central and southern new England and most of central and eastern 2/3 of NY state get crushed …so does northern WVA and central and eastern OH and eastern KY

    3. Wxrisk.com by the way can all the damn idiot TV weather folks and mets out there on the east coast stop telling folks its 7 days away ?
      7 days from now the event will be ending !! what a re you Morons gonna do … look at the window and see 6″ of snow and say 4-8″ pf snow thats my forecast ?

    4. Wxrisk.com DEC 26 is big travel day …The purpose of issuing a weather forecast is to communicate weather information to people and businesses and organizations so they can make adjustments accordingly… Not to blow smoke up your own butt

      1. LOL. We were just talking about that at work. One of my employees kept her little ones home from school in fear the world was coming to an end.

  49. Hey, while we’re griping…..Where is all this Big Wind?????

    I’ve been sitting by the window watching all morning. Nothing.

    1. It’s gone again here. We went from totally blue sky and no wind to darker clouds moving in and the wind has returned. Darn – I was envisioning a fire outside tonight 🙁

      1. Yeah the NCEP version has an even uglier NAO outlook. But the AO should remain negative. Remember the GFS is having a tough time right now, so I would take caution with those teleconnection outlooks.

    2. Yeah it figures, and now the NAO goes neutral!! Don’t think it will stay that way for long though. January is going to be an interesting ride.

  53. HM has posted his snow map for the 12/27 storm and I actually think he’s got the right idea. Axis of heaviest snow across upstate NY, VT, NH, and ME. I was never on board with the Lake Cutter solutions the models had a few days ago. We knew this thing was going to shift east but the question now is how far? Whether this rides right up the coast or starts with a more westerly track over the Appalachains and then transfers to a coastal storm – in either solution, there is going to be cold air locked in the interior Northeast and someone is going to get a LOT of snow.

    I think this storm will track too close to the coast and wind up too much to bring heavy snow to SE NE but central and northern NE and Upstate NY could be talking a 1-2 feet deal. I believe the models are underdoing the precip and will trend juicier with this storm as we draw closer.

    It’s nice to see the PNA finally going positive but with a neutral NAO and lack of strong blocking towards the end of next week, I think we are favoring more of a coastal hugger than a benchmark storm at this point.

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/at-least-two-snow-events-next-week-one-could-be-big/2998681

  56. Way to go TK as always! You forecasted sunshine just prior to sunset and as always you were correct. The other mets and NWS never mentioned so much as a glimpse and here in Boston nice blue skies as if it was like that all day.

    Thank you! 🙂

  57. Ah, vacation ! 🙂

    Ok, it can snow 1,000 inches through Jan. 1st …. and then, beginning Jan 2nd must stop again, so as to not add days in mid June.

    1. Tom, aren’t schools allowed a few snow days? If I am not mistaken Boston schools have about 5 before any additional days have to be made up.

      I am just guessing on that number.

      Enjoy your vacation! 🙂

    2. Thanks Philip.

      Yes, schools plan those days in, for example……without any days cancelled, Marshfield would have finished June 12th, 2013. Then, most systems will plan out and assume 5 days lost and make sure there is ample time to fit those days in. Then, usually after 5 days, you can start looking at shortening a vacation, etc. With Hurricane Sandy having cancelled 2 days, we are now in school to Friday, June 14th.

  59. Re: Christmas Eve/Day from NWS Upton, NY:

    GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
    MON NIGHT…THAT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MON NIGHT INTO
    EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. AMTS COULD BE ADVY-WORTHY ESPECIALLY
    NORTH/WEST OF NYC. NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW
    MIX LATE IN THE EVENT WHICH COULD KEEP AMTS DOWN THERE.

    1. As I said this morning, I’m growing with confidence that we will see a white xmas here in Boston as that disturbance gathers just enough moisture to throw back 1+ inches of snow for southern new england. Future runs will demonstrate this. Not to mention 1+ may be a bit on the conservative side. I’m more excited about the Xmas storm than I am the post Xmas storm. I’m focusing on this event first.

      1. Hmm…this looks more interesting, even if qpf fot this run is very low 18Z GFS:

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121221%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&fcast=084&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&cycle=12%2F21%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=74&nextImage=yes

        1. We are on to something. Models are underplaying this event. If only the storm was slightly more amplified and moved a tad slower. Nevertheless, a white xmas is looking more likely. These storms can be sneaky.

          1. We shall see. It certainly looks way more interesting than previously. Yes, it was the 18Z.
            We’ll see if that feature is still there with the 0Z run. 😀

  60. Today’s 6-10/8-14 day CPC outlook has northern Maine with above normal temps but the rest of the CONUS including SNE with normal to below normal temps.

    Do the above normal temps in Maine mean no cold high for storms that arrive??

        1. I think it’s really funny that people are dismissing the Christmas Eve event and are all excited about a post Christmas event that is one week away. I think these boards will light up shortly once it is realized that the Christmas event is going to provide is with a white Xmas.

  62. I have more confidence in seeing snow on the Christmas Day event (assuming precip gets far enough north), but very little confidence in next week’s system.

    I’m actually going to stay away from model solutions and talk other factors….

    I think any fairly wound up system nearly guarantees a majority of the storm being rain in SE New England, at Logan and even the north shore of Massachusetts. A deeper low is going to have more wind and the bottom line is that the ocean is 47F. Even a benchmark storm gives most of the coastline several hours of wind that is 030 to 060 degrees.

    The lack of snowcover and true arctic air. Yes, it will be cold. In the 30s. But, I’d like to see it in the mid to upper 20s in southern New England and even chillier to our north. Thats just not the case…..with regards to snowcover, it is sparse and the snow there was in northern Maine is taking a beating tonight with the rainy, mild surge of air.

    I am intrigued by Christmas Day because maybe its a chance to get some precip into a marginally cold airmass without too much wind off of the ocean. Here’s hoping !!

    1. The marginally cold airmass for Christmas day holds on this time to allow for snow for the majority of the viewing area, the exceptions being mix/rain from plymouth south and east. A solid 1+ swath of snow with locally 3 inches seems reasonable to me at this time for most of southern most new england. There will be sharp cut off to the north. This storm remains to our south keeping the “cold” air in place.

      1. I agree Alisonarod. It snowed in Marshfield right by the ocean earlier this month with a marginal cold airmass that did the trick when some precip fell without any wind.

    2. Those mid to upper 20s in southern NE and chillier to the north, I mean a day before the storm arrives, where the cold is entrentched and there’s a nice cold high bridged to the north.

      1. In addition to your concerns Tom, the latest CPC has above normal temps for northern Maine. This to me means no cold high to the north…as I mentioned earlier above.

        1. Yes…….the recent storm that gave freezing rain to inland locations….it was -2F in Caribou for a low and the next day, it struggled to get to 15F the day prior to the precip arriving. That was a decent, very cold high, even in retreat. I just dont know if Canada has a similarly cold high for the upcoming week.

  63. FROM NWS TAUNTON

    MON NIGHT INTO TUE…
    THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
    TIMEFRAME…MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRAZING OR MOVING
    THROUGH OUR AREA BUT THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE LOW TRACK AND
    TIMING. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON EXACT TRACK AND
    TIMING OF LOW BUT DO GENERALLY KEEP LOW CENTER WEAK AND ALONG OR
    OFFSHORE…WHICH COULD MEAN LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS FOR OUR AREA.
    OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY
    SOUTH OF THE PIKE…WHILE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO ALL
    BUT SOUTH COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH ADDL POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
    RAIN SOUTH COAST. THINK IT IS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ACROSS
    OUR ZONES…WITH HIGHEST PROB SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

  64. Todd Tweet

    @ToddWBZ: 18Z GFS has classic Nor’easter snow look for the middle of next week…wonder if it’s showing it’s face too early.

  65. Look what lurking in the future.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121221%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=300&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F21%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=52&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. You crack me up. Dude, that’s two weeks away and is just a fantasy map. I’d LOVE for that to happen. Yet again, I’d be happy with a couple of inches of xmas snow.

    3. That May be a fantasy map, but what it shows me is some consistency.
      The 12Z had it as well, a very good sign. Could it disappear or end up in
      a different position? Of course. Look how far out it is.

      I still like seeing it. 😀

    4. New England Weather Works
      Lots of talk about concerning the Christmas Eve and Christmas Day storm, we have been watching the guidance most all day and find a few things of interest, Number one at this time we don’t buy the solution from the GFS sliding this south of New England, now you ask why.

      If you look at how the GFS has performed with the larger after Christmas storm you will notice at this time last evening it tried to shove that storm out south also before correcting,we think this is due to the GFS handling the Rex Block poorly.

      Now if you look at the 12z run it has the x mass day storm south, but looking at the 18z run the low is trending back to the north as did the larger storm after Christmas on the 0z run.

      We believe the GFS has not been handling the upcoming blocking pattern that well and may be over doing it, we don’t know what big change the GFS is seeing sending a small storm out to sea and than walloping the same area with a storm the very next day , less than 24 / 48 Hrs, makes no sense.

      Looking at the other images of guidance they seem to show a better solution, we think since the GFS has trended further North from the 12z to the 18z tells us a trend may be coming with the 0z.

      1. Wasn’t he the best Sue? I like it when someone is brave enough to make a bold prediction. And he always had so much intellect to back up his thinking. He was a lot of fun and often very right. I don’t know if you recall the person on the wbz blog who called himself “I am Always Right.” But, that may have been BM:)

        2. I do remember “I am Always Right”. I often wondered if it might be him. I definitely wish he would post here.

  67. Is everyone still here. We have 14 minutes to go. So do all weather lovers end up in the same place ?? 😉

      1. I hear different times. One was at the solstice. Another was 7:11 pm. Allowing for the time it takes for the sun to not reach us I think we are in the clear 😆

  68. Wxrisk.com
    ‎***12z EURO ENSEMBLE MODEL… Strongly supports 12Z regular euro and 12z GFS ENSEMBLE… Takes PRIMARY low very strong into eastern TN bringing heavy snow to IND much of KY OH western PA northern WVA….

    2ndry LOW devevlops over RDU in NC into chessy bay then off nj coast. This MEANS….. Most of shenandoah valley stays ICE and/or snow… As does central MD… Piedmont of va could see ice and north of I-64 could see heavy ice into DCA BWI areas. These areas could see some rain overnight on the 26th into the 27th then end as snow

    MOST of PA…northwest NJ see… Most of NYstate and all of NEW ENGLAND see good size snowstorm… NESIS cat 2 or lower end 3.

      1. John,

        With what happened last year, for me, it’s pretty exciting seeing
        a possible parade of storms lined up and they “could” be snow.
        So, I’m afraid I won’t be looking at one at a time, I’ll be looking
        at all of em. 😀 😀 😀

        If I had a map for Valentine’s Day, I’d post it! 😀

        1. Yes, it is “potentially” for real as it is a Computer Model
          depiction for the future. But yes, the models are showing
          that.

        1. Got it. Thanks. My sister in law is flying here from Atlanta on the 30th and returning on 1st so it caught my attention

  70. Curious on something. Accuweather has warmer temps this weekend than I thought. 47 tomorrow and mid 40s on Sunday. High 30s for Xmas eve day and Xmas day 38. 20s at night. Just thinking if that storm comes on Christmas how well would it accumulate. The ground is not that cold.

    1. If it get into the 20s Sunday night then again Monday night before any
      snow, it will have no trouble accumulating, assuming it ever arrives.

      1. i would still be worried about the cold air being dry and taking it a while to even come down. and probably will be really light

  71. I agree that Xmas storm should trend north, just keep an eye on that high and if gets any stronger thus shunting the storm south. I also am sort proud of myself in regards to the post Xmas storm bc I knew it would not be a GLC 🙂

    Alisonarod I totally agree one storm at a time but its just nice to look at the possibilities out there after last year when there were no real possibilities.

    1. I like knowing the potential for the future. I may not know how to interpret a lot of the maps but I do know that anything far off is only a possibility and its fun to watch the models to see how they change – at least for me.

  75. We got some watchers next week and hopefully one will give us some snow. I want to put the UGH meter away for a while and bring out the YEAH meter.

  76. Would it be fair to say that ….. If we’re going to get a colder version of the 12/27 – 28 storm, then you probably dont want to see snow on Christmas Day ?

    Why do I say this ? Because the colder scenario of the GFS requires colder high pressure to begin setting up shop by this weekend and being there mid next week for the juicier southern stream system. But in setting up the cold by late weekend, it supresses this weak Christmas Day wave. Conversely, the EURO, which has the cold further north, allows the weak wave on Christmas to track further north, with a better chance of precip Christmas Day…… Continuing along that idea, the storm track on the EURO continues further north and west with next week’s system.

  77. The sunshine part of the forecast panned out well. Not sure why the other met’s didn’t mention it. I thought that part was a given when I looked things over guidance-wise, and then radar/satellite during the day today. Basic meteorology at work.

    Have a great night everyone! I’ll post some fresh thoughts in a new blog tomorrow morning. 🙂 Right now I’m off to take a small tour of Christmas lights in the northern suburbs of Boston. Nice night for it. 🙂

  78. Tom based on the GFS track for the storm I think if it stays south that should lock in the cold air for the next storm. It all depends on how strong that low becomes. I also think how far east develops will be key in the post Xmas storm.

    I can’t just say that if the euro is correct for Xmas than GFS can’t be correct. I think you can see how much the euro has shifted n the last 48 hrs. I guess for me personally I like the euro track bc of being in Maine and no question it’s snow either way.

    1. Wouldn’t it be a good thing if it snowed on christmas? Don’t storms like to follow along a path between where there is snow cover and no snow cover I think its called some kind of zone… I don’t know maybe I’m way off.

      1. Snowcover always is a good thing for building and maintaining cold and in theory that can only help shift the temp contrast south along with the storm track.

        As the 2 models stand right now though, precip further north on Christmas Day might portend to a low track further NW like the EURO and if the snow skirts the south coast on Christmas Day, then there’ll be a colder, snowier scenario inland from the immediate coastline that the GFS depicts.

  79. My latest thinking is a coating to an inch of snow Christmas morning esp south of Boston, some places in the Taunton area could get the inch 🙂

  80. There are 20,000 power outages in Vermont due to winds more damaging than Sandy.

    Vicki…wish you were there? 😉

  81. The last time it snowed on Christmas Day in Boston was in 1974 with a total of 3.3″ which is if I am not mistaken, a record for that day.

    If I am correct, it is somewhat surprising that it never snowed more on that day in years past.

    2. I know it has snowed in the early 2000s. Was it 2003 or around there. That was in framingham but it was at least 4-5 inches by the time we got home Christmas night. Maybe it was rain in Boston ??

      1. 2002 I think and it was cold rain/sleet in Marshfield and when my parents returned to the Merrimack Valley (Tewksbury) on 12/26, they found they had gotten about 12 to 15 inches.

  82. Todd tweeted a picture of snow depth over the US and southern Canada and what a huge difference from 2011 and 2012. Clearly this is not the same winter as last year.

    1. I told you all back in the fall that this was going to be a very bad winter. The signs were there. Also cold. This winter Will not be dry, trust me.

    2. I could say that if snowcover were the only correlation. But it’s one of many. 2010’s snowcover doesn’t mean that this winter will be snowy. 🙂 Yes it will snow here, but as for above normal snow? We’ll need luck to get that.

  87. Hadi,

    Awesome! Hopefully we are going to get alot of snow in the coming weeks. However, I should be the last one looking forward to snow I’m in the process of building a house and if we get alot of snow and cold its going to slow down everything.. Building a house is definitely a learning experience and frustrating at the same time. But trying to make it as fun as possible. Can’t wait to move in hopefully end of march.

  89. That’s so exciting TJ.

    No question this year will be better. Lets say we even miss 1 or 2 storms its still fine bc we clearly have a pipeline of storm potential.

  91. I think a lot of this winter depends on the next two storms if they hit then we have a roadmap to future storms. If they miss then maybe we have a trend. I think the next 10 days are critical to what happens the rest of winter. Cold looks to get locked in place starting tomorrow through the first half of January.

  92. Just to play the devil’s advocate, we could get 1/2 inch of snow Christmas Day and for 12/27-28 …. say SE of 495 ….. receive 1-3 inches of snow that turns to chilly rain, that maybe ends as snow. While the EURO has undoubtedly trended east significantly the last 3 days, the EURO’s most recent run, its 12z run, shows southern New England with enough mild air at 850 mb during the majority of the storm.

    1. I like it when people play devils advocate. That way they r seeing every angle. Interesting discussion here. Thanks all

  94. To play double devils advocate the trend has been east so what’s not to say we don’t trend further east. That high I spoke about the other day is really helping.

  97. Whatever happen next week I really like the overall pattern and set up for Januray. Good night and see where we are tomorrow

  98. Interesting back and forth between Todd G and Kevin l on twitter, Todd g asked Kevin if he really posted a snow map. So they went back and forth a little. I guess Todd intended to ask the question privately.

  100. i hope you guys are all right. im just being pestimistic. i seen way to many winter storms go poof. lately to trust or give any one model trust.

    2. Highly doubt the post xmas storm goes poof. It will do something, question remains what. 00z GFS not giving coastal areas up to 495 much of a shot of snow as temps look too warm. The GFS runs have been spot on consistent, but that r/s line will be tough to pinpoint even during the event.

      1. Definitely don’t think post xmas storm goes OTS but it will be interesting to see if the xmas snowfall helps influence the storm on dec 27th. Gfs is pumping out more moisture for xmas storm. Rain/snow line will be all over the place especially 6 days out

  101. Harvey said looking like northward trend for Xmas. 1-3 Boston is a safe bet, maybe less down here. I’m going with that. He is rarely wrong. I will get paid very well for this.

      1. Thanks ace. It is what it is. If it stops early enough I can get home faster. I have a full house of guests coming over. The one thing that bothers me the most is I wont see my son come down to Santas gifts. He is eight and this may or may not be his last Xmas where he believes in santa. Best bet for me is let the storm start at midnight.

  102. The GFS has both the xmas and 12/27 storms following a very similar SW to NE track with the lows tracking NE off the Delmarva. This seems logical to me that the tracks would be similar, given the storms are fairly progressive and only two days apart. Key difference is the 12/27 storm is a bit closer to the coast (inside the benchmark) and obviously stronger, bringing warm air in to areas SE of I-84 and inside 495. I think it has the right idea.

  103. That xmas storm on the GFS would surely give most of SNE a white xmas with 2-3″ across most of CT, RI, and SE MA, and a coating to 2″ across the rest of MA!

    Sounds like harvey is buying it.

    1. I wonder when most of it falls, or will it be a gradual all day kind of snowfall. If its light, i wonder if the roads will be ok and it wont accumulate on the roadways due to warm ground?

  106. Its starting to look like a level 1 snow event for Christmas. Its a weak system if it does effect us.
    Storm potential number two does not look good for snow with areas near and at the coast.

  108. Wow, at 962 mb that 1/3 storm would be an all out blizzard! The GFS has been very consistent for over a week now showing a significant storm on 12/27 affecting us and it appears at this point to in the bag. Sure it’s had wild swings in the track but that’s not too uncommon that far out. It’s doing the same now with the 1/3 storm – been eerily consistent. Definitely got plenty to watch over the next few weeks and beyond.

  109. Ace, to answer your question above (if we believe the GFS), looks like light snow starts in Boston between midnight and 3AM, comes down heaviest between 3 and 9AM and then tapers off and is out of there by noon. With that timing and temps in the low 20’s overnight, the ground will be plenty cold enough and the snow will accumulate and stick to roads.

      1. Thanks! We’ll actually be here in CT till xmas morning, then driving up there in the afternoon in time for dinner. In-laws who live north of Rome (southern fringe of the Tug Hill) have called already today and said it’s been snowing since the afternoon and the ground is covered. Think we are a lock for a white xmas in both places!

        1. My kids believed until about 10. Maybe later. It’s hard to remember because they still feel the magic and are in awe Christmas morning As for me, what is not to believe 😉

  110. The Euro is half right. The GFS is half right. They both have half the right idea with the general pattern.

    Christmas snow? Yes. Alot? No.

    Midweek bomb? Watch for this to trend southeast with time on model runs.

    Intense cold? Shots coming, not sustained right away. Bump in the road between initial shots and a more sustained cold/dry pattern in January. Don’t be surprised if the very cold air is preceded by a cutter storm of some sort that brings a mild rain. This may occur around January 1 as a system depicted in error on both models (as a weekend event December 29-30 on the Euro & as a January 2-3 event on the GFS). It will be interesting to see if these models converge on a solution before the event is a week away. Place on back burner for now.

    Been watching models for a long time. If you like snow, it’s generally bad news to see a “perfect snowstorm” 5 or more days in advance as the GFS has done during the last several runs. Almost ALWAYS changes.

  111. Kind of surprised. I suspected it to be colder this morning. In Halifax now and we sit at 37 degrees. Was colder last night.

    1. I thought so to John. I have 36 here in North Attleboro. Looks like we are off to another warmer tan normal start. 🙁 if you have to work Tuesday. I wish my daughter still believed. She know snoops and probably already knows half of what we got for her :).

  112. 00 GFS for Xmas. About 1-3 Boston and maybe a tad more south.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121222%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_087_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=087&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F22%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=42&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  113. Yesterday’s warmth has brought Logan to +5.1F temp anomaly for the month.

    Given the coming 30s, I’m thinking last years +5.3F wont be matched, perhaps ending up more in the +3.5F range by month’s end.

  114. 00z GFS for post Xmas storm, warmer for most SNE in the height of storm. Beautiful for anyone outside of coastal area and up north

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121222%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_123_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=123&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F22%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=52&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. Yes ….. I think next winter in addition to Logan, we should add an interior location for snowfall prediction.

  115. 6z GFS pretty much the same , more QPF for Xmas storm but not by much. And post Xmas storm is colder but a little more disorganized.

  117. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=current%20us%20temperatures&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CEcQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fweather.unisys.com%2Fsurface%2Fsfc_con.php%3Fimage%3Dte%26inv%3D0%26t%3Dcur&ei=R6TVUOXHL6jf0gGEm4GYDQ&usg=AFQjCNHgQ_Is6kGD-0US248G0VBVSqdZWA&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.dmQ

    Here’s the current US temps.

    One thing I notice, the continental polar air is in the upper midwest. From Detroit, eastbound, its chilly…one will want a coat when outside today, but its not cold. Eastern Canada, the Maritimes, Newfoundland, Labrador……their temp anomolies the last several months have been through the roof.

    The one part of the EURO I stubbornly will support is that I think it has the right idea of not having a lot of continental polar air in place the next 6 to 8 days.

    So long as the wind is calm or very light Christmas Eve night/ Christmas Day morning, I’m cautiously optimistic about a bit of wet snow, even in Marshfield. Middle of next week, I’d assume Marshfield will be 40F during the heart of that storm, assuming the current track forecast, though I do take notice that TK thinks a further SE trend is possible.

      1. John, how close is the hospital you work at to the coastline ? Is it more like 1 mile inland or more than 5 miles inland and I am asking this question pertaining to the Christmas morning event.

          1. Fairly close to the ocean’s edge…….

            Well, if precip gets far enough north, I’d think it will be wet snow, snowing with the temp btwn 32F and 34F.

            2. Not sure because at some point to the north, there probably will be a sharp cut off to the precip.

              Most snow maps tend to have snow accumulation lines horizontal….but with the ocean temp being in the mid 40s, they need a few vertical ones that show a tight snowfall gradient within a few miles to the coastline.

        2. If son were to be here Christmas morning, he’d have to drive from framongham to Boston (museum of science area) leaving framingham by 6:00 am. He absolutely cannot be late. Any guesses on accumulations that early from metrowest into Boston? Thanks Tom.

  118. NWS going mostly with a GFS blend for post Xmas storm and incorporating euro a little. Still a lot to work out.

    NWS expecting a decent potentially advisory level event on Xmas eve and day.

  119. Right now level 1 snow event for Christmas. The mid week storm still the more important POTENTIAL storm. I think mix and rain areas near and at the coast as it looks like that mild ocean air will becoming ashore. Areas further inland COULD be looking at POSSIBLY a level 2 snow event.
    Reading the discussion from Gray, ME could be another coastal storm next weekend.

  120. Would someone be able to post the EURO 120 hr 850 mb temps from the 0z run ?

    Then, compare the setup of the 850 mb temps to the current surface temps map I posted above and notice the similarities of the location of the cold air. I know I’m comparing 850 mb temps to surface temps, but, it is interesting how they are similar in overall tendencies.

  121. Joe Joyce, WBZ, at 7:30 am.

    Xmas day: Broad brush of 2-4 ” across the state.
    Midweek storm: Too early to call because of changes in the track, BUT snow inland & mix near coast as of this moment in time.

  123. I expect euro to trend colder as the week goes on for anyone in SNE. For once I am not worried about in central Maine 🙂

  124. As I stated yesterday, the xmas day storm looks to be coming into fruition with 1-3+ widespread totals. Boston will likely see more snow from this storm then they will see during the post Xmas storm. I’m glad southern new england sees a white xmas.

    1. Ya know, I was thinking the same thing. Wouldn’t it be ironic to get more snow on Xmas than from post Xmas storm? If ur in the jackpot for Xmas, I think that has a good chance of verifying. Ill be miffed if it does though. I think this will be a front end/back end loaded storm with a few inches to start followed by rain then back to snow.

  125. just getting up after a Christmas party with free-flowing beer. My ughh meter is a 10 right now.

    Little surprise dusting overnight. Looks like we’re in for snow on Christmas after all. Can’t remember the last time that’s happened.

    Ok, time to search the medicine cabinet for a remedy and bring down the ughh factor!

  126. Correct me if i am wrong guys but the 1024 line on tbe map that haid posted thats the the freezing line right?

    1. Hi Kane.

      I’m not sure, but when I see 1024, it makes me think it may have been a pressure measurement in millibars.

  127. Alisonarod I think you are giving up too soon on the post Xmas storm. I think we need to see how much cold gets entrenched after the Xmas storm. I am betting it will be colder than modeled for SNE.

    Tweet from the NWS

    @NWSBoston: A White Christmas? It’s certainly psbl to see @ 2-4″ across SNE with a storm system Christmas Eve – Christmas Day. #CTwx #RIwx #MAwx #NHwx

    1. Hadi. Not giving up at all. I just take one storm at a time. Focusing my attention on Xmas day storm. Now that it appears that event is going to occur, I will then turn my eyes toward the post Xmas event. I’m not giving up. I’m just looking at the overall weather features and while models have been trending colder, I’m still concerned that coastal areas will be see a lot of rain out of this. However, things can change which is my point. In a couple of days, things will become more clear. I’m not even paying attention to the models. As TK stated, it’s about using meteorology vs the models to predict that post xmas event.

    1. Look at that arctic cold towards the arctic circle. Most of Siberia and north Asia are extremely frigid, even moreso than usual. Imagine a pattern that lets some of that cold cross the pole, get captured and sent down into the US.

  131. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=current%20us%20temperatures&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CEcQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fweather.unisys.com%2Fsurface%2Fsfc_con.php%3Fimage%3Dte%26inv%3D0%26t%3Dcur&ei=R6TVUOXHL6jf0gGEm4GYDQ&usg=AFQjCNHgQ_Is6kGD-0US248G0VBVSqdZWA&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.dmQ

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif

    Check out the overall placement of the surface cold this morning and then compare that to the projected 850 mb temps at 120 hrs………. I believe its significant because time and again this late autumn and early winter, cold air has had a tough time establishing east of the Great Lakes and that sort of idea presents itself on the EURO 850 mb temps for mid next week. The core of the cold air, like this morning, is well west and north of the low. New England’s 850 mb temps at 120 hrs are around -2C and ther’s very little indication of a cold high to our north or northeast.

  132. Fulton, NY (I’m guessing out in central or western NY State) …..

    Moderate Snow, visibility 1/4 mile, 26F, Wind west at 23, gusting to 37.

    That sounds like fun !! Well, as long as you dont have to drive in it.

  135. Would I be correct in saying the 12z NAM is further north, with measurable precip into southern VT, NH and ME and a low tracking parallel, but right along the south coast…ie, passing north of the benchmark as it moves eastward……

    If that Christmas event is further north, than my confidence absolutely grows that the 12/27 storm is milder and rainier with wintry precip further north and west. Great for the Berkshires and the mountains.

    1. Tom. You have to take the NAM with a grain of salt. It just has no credibility this far out. The NAM is better utilized within 24-48 hours from storm onset. Beginning tomorrow, the NAM can be used for the xmas day storm.

  137. Back to preparing for Christmas Day, we’re hosting 🙂 . Have had to rehide a few presents fom my youngest, as she has gotten close to a few hiding spots….

    Pos NAO, the trend in the NAM, the cold mostly entrenched in the central USA…..

    I’ll predict the EURO’s eastward trend stops today and that some milder solutions begin to show up. We’ll see. My accuracy rate in weather forecasting is 28.47 %, so…….. 🙂 🙂

  138. I am taking it one storm at a time. As I said yesterday if one of those two storm threats delivers snow I will be happy.

    1. JJ. You’re going to see at least a couple of inches on Xmas day. It may be more wet than white post xmas in eastern new england.

  139. Looks like the 12z GFS takes the low west of New England UGH!
    Good news the 12z GFS looks to give a good chunk of SNE 2-4 for Christmas.

  140. Am I reading it wrong or was last nights euro a lot colder than the GFS? Almost same exact track but much colder.

  141. Its over….. here goes the 12z GFS towards the west….. The EURO will have gotten this correct (12/27 storm) once again !!

    On Monday………Christmas Eve, the Christmas event by then will probably be forecasted to track across southern New England, like the Mass/CT and Mass/RI border with snow to rain……….and the 12/27 storm will be up and over Albany, NY with 40s and rain.

      1. Not much more, other than a hunch that because most everything is trending to the north, I’m guessing that by tomorrow or Monday, we could be looking at a system that tracks north enough to introduce rain into parts of the area that right now look like all snow.

  144. Right now the YEAH meter is out for Christmas.
    The UGH meter for post Christmas storm very low at a 2 since the models will go back and forth.

    2. My father would tell you as a kid, if it snowed 10 inches, I wanted 15 inches. And eventually, when it snows in southern New England, I will be as happy as anyone else, reporting what I’m seeing in Marshfield.

      Its really that its just hard to believe the colder scenarios when the following is happening….

      1) NAO headed for positive
      2) no cold air entrenched in eastern Canada
      3) Atlantic ocean east of us 1 to 2 celcius above average

      These 3 factors to me say that atmospherically, there’s nothing there to create a storm track favorable for central and southern New England snow. In fact, those 3 things say to me an atmospheric weakness if you will, where lows are going to face no resistance at all to track further NW than shown many days in advance. So, really, deep down, snowwise, I’m disappointed, but as an arm chair weather person, I have to think milder scenarios.

  146. Again folks. You’re going to drive yourselves crazy with these models going all over the place for later next week. I don’t trust ANY of the model solutions.

    1. Ur absolutely right. We won’t know for sure till 48 and hopefully by 24 hrs out. And even then, if its close, it may be a nowcasting situation. One thing I will note, the 12Z run of the GFS the past couple days has been slightly different than the others. It has had a bias for warmer and the transfer of energy is sooner this tracking the low a bit further to the coast.

    2. We’re not driving ourselves nuts. It is something we enjoy. I for one, love
      to view the various changes these models go through. Most times they
      don’t get it correct until a day or 2 before the event. But sometimes they
      nail it a week out.

  147. I agree and why the UGH meter is very low at 2 at this time. We won’t have a good idea on what is going to happen until 24-36 hours prior in my opinion.

    1. As I have been saying all along, the xmas event is more significant at this point in time. Yesterday the METS were calling for flurries. My confidence had been and continues to grow for measurable snow on Xmas;)

        1. No. Snow for everyone on Xmas except “perhaps” far southeast MA, cape and islands. Post Xmas storm looks more wet than white, however, I’m not buying the far western track depicted by the latest GFS. Initialization issues there…storm should be closer to the benchmark making the rain/snow line situation between 128 and 495. It’s going to be close. That’s why I’m not buying that latest run. The models are all over the place now. We need to the storm to get onto land so the models can capture it better.

      4. If this storm were tomorrow, grand !! But with the trend…….. Nashua, NH……..Brattleboro, VT……may be the places to be.

  149. NWS Uption:

    WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY…AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
    AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT PRECIP
    DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
    MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED ON THE POSITION/TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
    THE UPPER TROUGH/SFC LOW. HOWEVER…IT IS LOOKING LIKE A QUICK SHOT
    OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
    SYSTEM. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
    MORNING IS EXPECTED. AMOUNTS COULD BE ADVY-WORTHY…ESPECIALLY
    NORTH/WEST OF NYC. NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW
    MIX LATE IN THE EVENT WHICH COULD KEEP AMTS DOWN THERE.

  150. I don’t believe the models I think the NAO prediction has been all over the place so lets see what it says later today and tomorrow. Also the 12z gfs runs right into a High in Canada that’s not going to happen the Low will transfer to the coast and pass along or just south of the benchmark.

        1. AceMaster. This is clearly showing a rain to snow situation. With lack of strong cold H to the north, the marine layer becomes established first due to initial east south easterly winds. Once storm moves further northeast, wind direction changes to more of a northeasterly component thereby funneling cold air and changing rain over to heavy snow. This is not how I feel this will play out but this is what this map is demonstrating.

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