Windy Weekend / White Christmas?

326 Comments

1:01PM

A big storm pulling away but large in size will be responsible for a variably cloudy & windy Saturday and as high pressure tries to build in Sunday there will be more sunshine, but wind will still be a factor due to the contrast between the departing low and the arriving high. This weekend will also be on the chilly side, feeling more like December. This chilly air will set the stage for what may be a white Christmas for southern New England. Cold high pressure will hold on Monday, Christmas Eve Day, with plenty of sun and cold air. Low pressure moving out of the Ohio Valley is expected to take a track just south of New England Tuesday, Christmas Day, producing a swath of snow across southern New England. There may be some rain involved along the South Coast and Cape Cod due to mild ocean temperatures. This will not be a big storm but does have the potential to put down up to a few inches of snow in some locations. Looking ahead a little, there is still the potential for a larger storm of some sort at midweek next week. The track is still uncertain, so details will be left out for now.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain and snow showers. Highs around 40. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows from the middle 10s inland valleys to middle 20s coastal and urban areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Increasing clouds. Snow developing. Lows 22-27. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY:  Cloudy. Snow, except rain or snow South Coast & Cape Cod, ending in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to a few inches possible. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM snow or rain. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow or rain. Low 32. High 40.

FRIDAY: Clearing and windy. Low 28. High 38.

326 thoughts on “Windy Weekend / White Christmas?”

  1. Thanks TK. Looks like you increased the chances for 1+ snows in southern NE. I bet some places see 4 inches from this Xmas day storm:)

    1. i would say 1-3 besides for coastal southeast mass, cape and islands. where up to 1 inch will be possible.

  2. Thanks TK.
    Looks like were still on track for a level 1 snow event for Christmas. I hope this holds.
    The post Christmas storm track is going to change so many times so I am not worried what the 12z GFS run solution.

      1. Ugh meter doesn’t rise until models converge on a common solution all the way up to the day of the event. Still a good 144 hours from onset of storm

            1. Although I will give you this…My thinking has always been more wet than white for the post xmas storm but not because of what the models are saying.

  4. Interesting both the 12z EURO and GFS have trended west which is a warm solution. Now will there be consistency with future model runs. Its still early and this is not etched in stone. Christmas is looking more promsing for wintry weather at the moment.

  5. Oh my ….. According to the king……Snow to rain all the way west of Albany, NY and up to Portland, ME ……

    I dont think this is a blip. I think the models are figuring out that the continental, polar air’s thrust is not into eastern Canada ahead of these 2 systems, but rather hanging back in the northern Plains. There’s just no atmospheric resistance to our north to force storms out underneath us right now.

    I expect both systems to trend further north and northwestward. By tomorrow, they will be expecting snow in places like Burlington, VT for the and the rain/snow line in southern New England will be in play further north as well for the Christmas Day event. Sorry…….

    1. Tom. While I respect your theory. The Christmas day event will be all snow with the exception of the cape and islands:)

      2. Alisonarod 4 inches is kind of pushing it. I would be surprised. I’m guessing 1-3 and the 3 would be closer too the city and less for south shore.

        1. Actually more around the southshore. Mixing stays south and east of the south shore. Boston is further away from the storm. 2″ for the city and closer to 3-4 south (except cape/islands and far southeast ma where mixing gets involved). But John. I’ll take an inch at this point;)

          1. I hear ya. Any chance Boston could not get any , fat chance I know. But more here and less in Boston would work. I need a quick hit for Boston so we can get home. It can snow all it wants down here.

  7. Based on the GFS and EURO for Boxing Day storm I am glad I am up in Maine unless it shifts even further north. Right now it would be all snow there.

    I agree about Xmas storm, that storm can’t move much further north. SNE just gets into precip do snow should be the main player.

    1. Not to mention, dew points are quite low in southern new england. Lots of dry air to overcome thus not allowing much in the way of northern progress for the Christmas Day storm. Look for a couple to as much as several inches in spots:)

    2. If the latest GFS/EURO were to pan out (which they won’t) then even up in Maine you’d be looking at a decent amount of snow to start with a transition to mix/rain.

  8. Redevelopment on 12z GFS for post Christmas not in right place IMHO. Will it really jump from central Ohio to redevelopment over Richmond? Don’t think so. Should be at least as far east as delmarva unless it just cuts through eastern lakes.

    Christmas storm looks to be 1-3 or 3-5. To alisonarod’s point, depoints make keep it at 1-3. I’ll take it.

  9. As I have been saying around Christmas and beyond was the time, I’m not gonna pack myself on the back but ok I’m gonna haha,, anyways I’m confident snow is coming for Christmas Day, alot of us will see 2-3 inches with slightly less along the coast, I think west northwest and even southwest suburbs will be in the 2-3 inch range, now the only question is from Downtown Boston down the immediate coast to Plymouth and down to New Bedford area could be much less, have a good day everyone! And it’s gonna snow Christmas morning ish 🙂

      1. I never said it would actually snow on Christmas Day but anytime around Christmas and beyond was when winter will come, it’s ok no problems 🙂

        1. Weren’t you the one who said the other day that if it snows in oct or nov that it means we will have a nice winter 😉

          To be fair I do remember you saying winter will start after Christmas

      2. He did not. I’m the only One who called for a plowable event before Christmas, not that it matters. I don’t think Boston escapes Charles.

  10. The storm after Christmas will be rain I think for Boston and Providence, maybe a little premix but it’s a rain event

  11. A lot of blue covering the lower 48 in the latest CPC 6-10 day outlook. This is most blue I having seeing covering the lower 48 in quite sometime.
    Christmas storm I am think a 1-4 inch snowfall.

  12. I was listening to NWS on weather radio and forecast for Central Middlesex County for nxt. wk. says a white Christmas w/a weak low-pressure area and a more significant storm Weds. night into Thurs. w/wintry precip. I shut it off before they actually gave the day to day forecast. This was on 162.555. Let’s see – today is Sat. I think we will all have a better picture for the middle of nxt. wk. by Mon.

  13. From Wxrisk.com re: Post-Christmas Storm. Stick a fork in it, we’re cooked! 😀

    HERE IS THE KEY POINT … Assuming that this run of the European model as well as the GFS ENSEMBLE is correct …ASSUMING THAT…. it really does not make a difference how cold the air mass is … if the surface LOW is that far inland you ARE e going to go over to rain in all of the I-95 95 cities— the even into Boston.

    What is happening with the models is that the primary LOW is pretty strong as a moves into Tennessee and Kentucky. THIS IS VERY BAD SIGN FOR THOSE WANTING AN I-95 SNOWSTORM .

    In the typical winter storm scenario where one LOW pressure area drives up into Kentucky or Ohio… which then dies and a new LOW rapidly forms off of Virginia or Maryland and becomes a much stronger LOW (this is refer to as a a MILLER B East Coast winter storm in the weather business)…. the initial or primary Low is quite weak. Often the pressure is above 1012 mb.

    In this case with this upcoming event the primary or first low reaches 996 or 992 MB. The result of this a stronger primaryLlow tracking up into Tennessee and Eastern Kentucky is that the stronger Low ‘s larger and more and well developed circulation drives much mIlder air into the Northeast US .

    The only way to counter this would be to have a enormous arctic HIGH centered over Quebec Canada and we don’t have that. The core of the arctic air mass is centered over Manitoba Canada and the upper Plains which is not adequate enough to counter the warming along the Northeast U.S. Coast .

    This is why all the models including the Canadian model this afternoon have turn warmer and show the system tracking a little further inland. This is not the final solution but we are beginning to run out of time here given that the that will be underway over the lower Middle Atlantic states by the predawn hours of December 26 which is less than four days away

  14. NWS going for 1-3 in there afternoon discussion. They said it could be an inch or less if stays more to the south like the Euro or could be higher than 1-3 if the GFS trend of stronger and banding take place.

    1. True, But the models have ENDED their Eastward trend and are now
      trending Westward towards what they originally had.

      So, to be plain and simple, it doesn’t look good. There is still “some” time,
      but it is beginning to play out and not to our liking.

  17. Waiting on the 18Z 😀

    But I am not holding out much hope for post-Christmas despite what the JMA
    says. That model Isn’t all that reliable anyway.

  18. I know it’s the 18Z, but now we’re basically back to a cutter, albeit it a more
    Eastern Cutter. The primary storm stays so strong and so far west that it doesn’t pop a coastal secondary. Where’s JJ – a RAINORAMA!!!!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121222%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_105_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=105&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F22%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=66&nextImage=yes

  19. im sticking with my gut feeling and saying the christmas day storm will be there but there will be alot of cold dry air to go through. this making the gfs over fone cut it in half and that will probably be what you get.
    second storm is trending warmer and further west. north of rt 2 will likly do really well. but for the rest of southern new england we could loose everything we get on christmas
    this is one of the many models going warmer 🙁
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gfs&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNM&hh2=240&fixhh=1&hh=120

      2. I think it was a couple of days ago, either the NWS or the CPC in their extended discussion called a 0z run of the EURO an outlier, because it was literally the only model with a mild scenario for 12/27 …………… It befuddles me after Isaac and Sandy, which required very good modeling of the atmosphere at mid and high latitudes to project their tracks, how any weather office, service, etc could possibly put more stock in the GFS over the EURO.

        1. Don’t the euro and gfs have strengths and weaknesses?? I thought TK said that the Euro doesn’t do well with transitional patterns. The gfs has called a couple of storms recently better than the euro and has been pretty consisent with lake cutters.

            1. I am the opposite, I put more stock in the GFS sometimes, but each model has good and bad streaks. It could still go back to what it was yesterday.

  20. New England Weather Works
    Post Christmas Storm taking a nose dive with the GFS, Warm and rain is what the GFS is saying. Thank god we are stationed in Northern Maine and don’t have to put uP with what most along the coast have to.

    Not ready to pull the plug just yet, it’s early, but I must admit it don’t look like it did the last few day’s.

  21. Everyone take a big deep breath!!! The gfs is all over the place just as we are closing in on 4 to 5 days out. We still have time and it will move again south and east of new england remember we are in a transitional period and models will have a tough time.

  22. Channel 7 is predicting less than an inch from Boston to metro west and rain on most of the south shore and south coast for Xmas day.

  23. The trend back west is not a surprise to me. I have made a few posts in the last couple days similar to what Tom said above – there is nothing in the atmosphere to our north to block the progression of the storm right up the coast. That being said, this is not going to be a Lake’s cutter and there will still be coastal redevelopment, but with the parent storm too strong, the redevelopment happening too late, and the coastal low hugging the coast, warm air is going to penetrate inland. Still believe this is a decent storm well inland with the axis of heaviest snow from Upstate NY to northern NE.

  24. Got a call from my in-laws who live just north of Rome, NY in the southern tug hill. They have received 10″ of lake effect snow since last night and it is still snowing. Kids are gonna have a blast when we get there xmas day!

  25. This is why I like to keep my wording general and simple, even with the Christmas event where there is still a degree of uncertainty of not only the amount of precip but the temps to support snow.

    To TJ: yes I did mention the Euro has trouble with transitional patterns but it does figure it out after a while, and it’s starting to very clearly show a trend to cold/dry beyond this. I’m not sure it has the details right yet, but it’s getting closer.

  27. I didn’t put it on my blog forecast above but my #’s I am thinking of is 1-3 where it stays all snow, leaning toward the lower end of that. I think at least mix and possibly rain is involved over CC/Islands, southern RI, and southeastern MA. It will be a short-duration event too. Sun should shine before it sets on Christmas Day.

    The midweek storm is probably going to end up fast, mild, and not too much QP. Right after that, cold/dry preview that will be the pattern for January once we complete the transition.

    1. So less than an inch of liquid? What do you think of a Rome threat for next weekend? Going to NYC. Need dry weather!

    2. What would you guess for Boston. I’m hearing less than an inch. Would that be on grass. I’m not tossing this storm away yet. I would appreciate your thoughts.

      2. I’d give them around 1 or 1.5. Pavements will melt a little of it early but it’s coming overnight. If there is any steady light/moderate snow it will stick unless the surface is heavily treated.

  28. I think it will snow a little but if your looking to go sledding u will have to go north, the post Christmas will be all rain and looking out to the new year no snow but chilly with highs around 40, will c it’s early 🙂

  31. On unrelated note has anyone been on the wbz website lately? Could they get anymore ads on there? Its a terrible website I’m happy we got our own blog now.

  34. I like all weather, though winter/snow is my favorite. One upside on a mild winter is it makes it easier for my ~15 year old dog Skipper to makes his rounds. A light snowfall on XMAS would make us both happy.

  35. I was looking at the NAO values on the models and it looks like the East NAO is going positive but the western NAO is staying slightly negative on both the gfs and euro. Isn’t it the West NAO we need to be concerned about? I would like to see more of a negative NAO for the upcoming post xmas storm.

  36. Which gfs is better
    The gfs 00z: gives us snow.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122200&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=159
    the gfs 06z gives us snow
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122200&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=159
    the gfs 12z gives us minor snow then rain
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122212&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=159
    then my least favorite the gfs 18z gives southern new england absoulutly nothin
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122218&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=159
    The euro is not looking that great either. at least we have some snow on christmas day and we see some snow on the ground before its washed away 🙁

    1. Two would be absolutely tops. It all depends on the arrival time. As tk said it looks to exit quick. Temps tomorrow and Monday key for this.

  38. So looking at Boxing Day storm I still feel it will be further south and colder. Rather than look at the models look at what should happen, a coastal transfer should occur like the Ukie/CMC are showing. I just don’t think if you are looking at the euro and GFS that they know what to think bc of the Xmas storm. Boxing Day storm just can’t take the path the GFS or euro are showing. The biggest concern to me is the lack of serious cold. I am up in Maine so I expect temps in the upper 20’s so hard to imagine Boston being cold enough to support all snow but we shall see.

    1. Hadi,

      Remember in 2010 we were always concerned about the lack of cold in the northeast but we had snow storm after storm. Its a wait and see and I think the storms are way to far to the west they will begin to move further east again. Its the NAO I’m watching.

  39. TJ, regarding your post on the NAO above, it can be either positive, nuetral, or negative and at the same time is either east-based or west-based. We want a negative NAO to send the cold air down into the eastern US and favor a storm track up the coast. Negative NAO though does not always guarantee snowstorms for us. If the NAO is too negative (block is too strong), storms get shunted to our south. And if the NAO is east based, the bulk of the cold air gets sent south into the Great lakes, midwest, and Rockies while the east coast can actually experience above normal temps and mix/rain storms as the storm track favors inside runners. What we want to see for an ideal set-up for winter storms in New England is a west based, negative NAO.

  41. 0z GFS has a non-event for this xmas storm with less than an inch throughout SNE. The 12/27 storm is still an inside runner and rain event. 12/29-30 storm is out to sea and the 1/3 storm is out to sea. If this verifies, perhaps a good reason to break out the ugh meter.

    0z NAM is slightly more robust for xmas with a general 1-2″ snowfall and at hour 84, the mid-week storm is slightly east of the GFS at the same time but in general, looks pretty similar.

    1. That’s assuming the GFS is correct and you know what assuming does…
      The models will continue to do their thing and wobble back and forth. Still too early to know for sure. At 4 days out, the track is far from set, and it’s very unlikely it’s going to trend any further west.

      Still feel coastal redevelopment will occur and somewhere south of NYC. Track will end up further east and colder giving the mountains a good storm. But even in that scenario, most of SNE goes over to rain after snow/mix to start.

  44. I believe most of our snow accumulation comes early Christmas morning, I think most of us get a general 1-2 inches, but if u are south and east of say Taunton expect an inch or less, and southeast of Plymouth and the canal expect rain, Boston will get about an inch but alot of it will be on car tops and grassy surfaces, temps Christmas Day afternoon temps will rise close to 40 degrees so I don’t expect any travel problems, I think it will be more pretty than hazardous, happy holidays everyone goodnight 🙂

  45. TWC issued their three month outlook for Jan-March. Northeast is colder than normal in both Jan and Feb and warmer than normal in March. In February, they expect a big blast of Arctic air across much of the country with more Greenland Blocking and an active jetstream along the east coast.

        2. Check out BB on ch 4 (in addition to TK here) and I think you’ll feel better about your Christmas Day travel.

  48. I am going to enjoy the touch of snow for Christmas because after that UGH!!!!!!!
    Rainorama for mid week storm.

  49. Yesterday actually came in above normal tempwise (+1 to +4F) at the 4 southern New
    England climo stations, mainly due to the overnight low departures.

    Here’s what the overnight lows have to be to meet normal for this date ……

    Logan : 26F
    Hartford, CT : 21F
    Providence, RI : 24F
    Worcester : 20F

  50. Reading a story off of a CNN link ….

    83 people have died during the past week from extreme cold in the Ukraine. More than 500+ people have sought treatment for hypothermia………..

    1. That is where the cold from the Siberian snowcover is. Feel bad for the people there. Still many poor areas that don’t provide adequate shelter.

      The cold air is in the N Hemisphere. It just hasn’t been in the Lower 48 during December.

    1. I can’t tell you how much I dislike the fact they name these things. Stick to warm-core storms.

  53. Good Morning Everyone-

    I think a region wide coating to 2″ for Christmas. Almost the perfect Christmas day snowfall if you ask me! Yes, I saw the NWS with a lot of 2-4 Worcester area, but even going with the most robust NAM and a generous 13:1 ration I only get to a max of 2″…So I feel good about a region wide Coating to 2″ From Hartford extend north into the CT Rvr Valley Eastward to Worcester and North to Lawrence and East into the Boston metro area where anything more than a coating to 1″ would be a surprise.

    I see a more wet than white scenario for Wednesday night into Thursday Morning, but areas west of 495 into Worcester and Springfield north should get some accumulating front end snow. I actually don’t like the ECMWF’s handling of this storm and I like its Ensemble Mean even less. It does too many funny things with the 2m temps compared to its low position and its associated 540 line. I think I would trend it warmer and thus slightly west due to the lack of a high to the north and the well mentioned positive NAO values. Inside 495 this will be mostly rain, with some front end snow even there, but not much.

    Weird for me to not like the ECMWF. Its 360 and 762 ENS guided me through my forecast of no accumulating snow and no notably significant cold from Thanskgiving through 12/21 in SNE, but I have had issues with its low placements, intensity, temp profiles during disturbed weather, and event duration at points since August.

    Another event later 12/29 or 12/30 looks warm throughout.

  54. TK-I find it almost unprofessional and a disservice that they name the winter storms. But we are in age where everything has to be bolder, more intense, worse than ever before. Extreme Team!

    1. I share your opinion and unfortunately you are correct about the “Extreme Team” comment. I wish it hadn’t come to this.

      Thanks for your analysis above. Was looking forward to seeing your comments here and I have to say I agree. This is a good example that when it comes to guidance, it’s just as much about knowing what not to believe.

      It would be rare for me but I actually think the 06z GFS has a decent handle on not only the track but the timing of that midweek storm.

  55. Quick comment: This has been a very disappointing December in terms of providing any kind of winter feel whatsoever. Today it’s supposed to be cold. It’s not cold, folks. I ran early this morning and broke out a sweat after about 5 minutes. Let’s not kid ourselves. In fact, it feels like it could easily get into the 40s today. SW wind is the culprit. I’m not seeing much snow overnight on the 24th. Whatever does fall will melt away quickly. Unbelievable, but our last cold day (one in which the temp barely got above freezing) was November 30th and we will likely not have a day like that until January. Moreover, we will not have any nights that dip below 20. Please mets, do not tell us it’s cold when it’s not. I feel duped when the mets do that.

    3. Have you ever noticed that I almost never use a descriptive term for temperature on my forecast (cold, mild, hot, etc)? I just put low and high temps there. Besides, those definitions vary from person to person based on tolerance, preference, etc. … My references tend to be more in relation to climate normals.

      1. TK – I’m not referring to you when I say “mets.” I like your forecasts which tend to verify more often than not. You’re honest about your forecasts, too. You also put things into perspective. I was just referring to mets on TV, but also forecasts I see in the paper.

  56. I do like the ECMWF and its ENS for pattern trend and definition. However if you to look no further than 24 hours ago when it was producing up to 6″ of snow in part of SNE on Christmas day! That illustrates some of the problems I have had with it this year. Based on the reliable ECMWF you started to see 3-6″ snowfall predictions showing up. This morning the ECMWF is struggling to produce more than a few hundredths of measurable precip from that same system. Some “consistently” from the most reliable model….

  58. I’m not sure the Christmas storm will be much more than a coating, I think we’re fighting over flurries and snowshowers, and as for naming winter storms the people wanted this not the forecasters, I think it’s just another get the attention of the person, I’m lucky I haven’t watched the weather channel since they started going downhill years ago with there stupid 3 hr episodes of storm stories, it reassures me the weather channel is no good, I don’t know why when I come on here everyone wants snow and everywhere else I go no one wants snow, I’m telling ya to alot of people the snow word is sinful, be happy and think spring 🙂

    1. Be happy and think white Christmas.

      I don’t know too many “weather fans” that don’t like snow. Especially in New England.

      1. Weather fans r snow lovers but the majority of new englanders when they think of snow they think of work, I’ve seen a percentage around 3 yrs ago on wbz and it was around 70% of new englanders would rather have no snow than having snow, when it snows I get numerous calls saying get rid of this crap, haven’t got that kind of call in years

        1. I’m not sure the WBZ blog is the best data sample to draw conclusions from….

          Have a nice day, Charlie. 🙂

          Enjoy the seasonably cold weather today. Glad your phone isn’t ringing off the hook with snow haters!

        2. 1) Any media blog is not going to be a great sample representation.

          2) If they had rather have no snow, I invite them to move to a snowless climate. We are not in one of those here. It snows. Maybe not always that much (like last winter), but it can snow like crazy (like 2 years ago).

          Have a great day! 🙂

    2. It’s winter in New England Charlie. Why wish it away. I’d rather enjoy the present. The future comes fast enough as is.

    2. Agree with ur thinking Longshot. That new years storm looks like a close call. After a lot of model agreement on something around that timeframe, its been back and forth with the storm track being pushed south. If we are to take the GFS for overall pattern, looks like after a brief period of neutral to pos NAO (right when we get our best shot of snow, blah) it goes very neg and some serious blocking sets up, and not the good kind, the kind that doesnt allow storms to make it across the US.

  64. Christmas picturesque snow
    Post Christmas UGH 12z GFS track low right through New England. I don’t think it goes further east than that.

  65. Good morning everyone. Enjoy the Xmas snow! A general 1-3 inch swath for most of southern new england still is likely except for southeast ma, cape and islands.

    Too bad the next storm looks wet for eastern sections and unfortunately, so does the storm after that. With a lack of cold H to our north, look for the pattern to repeat itself with these events.

    Merry Christmas everyone!

    1. From what I’m hearing from multiple mets Boston would be lucky ro even get an inch, calling for a coating in the city. Once you hit my way Pembroke area could be rain. I find its just who you believe. The temps to me are not as cold as predicted. I think Friday night was the coldest. Worcester And points north to the city look to receive the higher snow amounts. Is anybody else seeing it that way.

      1. Yes john, in regards to the xmas snow. Just read BB’s blog on BZ and i was surprised, he was actually calling for more snow north of rt 2 for xmas day, 2 to as much as 4.” Boston and points south, lucky to get a coating, inch at most. What a difference a couple days make, although, the xmas snow was never a certainty, track and intensity was always fluctuating with each model run.

        1. What you just said is exactly what I’m hearing. What’s the chances of that holding. Merry Christmas. Working tomorrow than hopefully off till Thursday.

          1. Merry Christmas to u too john. I think there a pretty good chance of that holding given its less than 48 hrs away now. I think u will be able to spend all of xmas day with your family 🙂

  66. It’s in the 30s. Wind chills in the 20s. It’s pretty chilly. If you are working in the sun and working up a sweat, sure you won’t feel it. But yes, it is pretty chilly out there today. 🙂

    This is rather typical. I don’t see anything wrong here.

    1. Its 40 where i am in Easton with a wind chill of 34. It does feel chilly dont get me wrong, but not biting cold. It doesnt “feel” like winter if that makes any sense 🙂 TK, the daily low temps u have to admit have been running above to well above normal for our area climo locations. Another thing ive noticed, even on seasonable days, the sun, despite its low angle, has been strong. I feel the warmth despite the air temp. Feels like an early spring/fall sun.

      1. Well I did acknowledge that the pattern in December has been milder than my long range forecast said, and the mild overnight temps go along with that.

        I’m not sure about the sun. It feels the same as it always has to me. I remember a few mild Decembers when I was a kid (1970s) in which at least a couple of our flowering bushes bloomed.

        Things are reactive to current conditions. For example, our dry weather and chilly Autumn (especially November) caused the leaves to turn and drop a couple weeks earlier than they did last year.

  68. I am going by the dog walking forecast. It is below freezing with frozen puddles after the sun goes down, at midnight and at 6AM in the morning. I suppose during the day we are in the mid to high 30’s in MetroWest, but if the this snow kicks off overnight and is going to end before lunch, I think we will be fine on XMAS for light snowfall in most of eastern MA.

  69. Took a peek at the blog archives from last xmas. So eerily similar its scary. Snow flakes in the air xmas morning, warm rain storm 2 days later, chance of more storminess around and after new years, pattern change coming for jan which never came…

    1. But the difference is the pattern leading to this was completely different last year from this.

      1. Very true. I guess i just cant get over the fact that even with a different pattern, we end up with the same result

    2. That’s what I was saying the other day. The discussion leading up to Christmas was nearly identical also. TK,leaves didnt fall earlier here. If anything they were later but certainly the same. I’m not sure if that is a determining factor though form anything because they fell late in 2010 also When we went to south shore the weekend after thanksgiving we were also amazed at the about of trees there with leaves. I do know areas up your way as you said seemed to be a bit earlier.

    1. Hadi, if thats where u will be for the storm ur gonna be flirting with that rain/snow line if it ends up being close to current guidance

    3. You’re in Gardiner? My family lives across the river in Pittston. Enjoy the snow, if you get it! 🙂

      (Me, I’m just hoping for windows of good weather for NH>MA travel in the morning of 12/26 and MA>QC travel on 12/28. Around that, it can do whatever it likes.:)

        1. “Pittston, but since you don’t know where that is, Gardiner, but since you don’t know where that is, 20 minutes south of Augusta” is my stock answer to “Where in Maine did you grow up?” 🙂

    1. Ace my SIL laughed when I saw the jaguars record and said so we lose today. We seem to have trouble with teams when it should be a given. I sure would love to say I’m wrong by the end of the game.

      1. I’d like to go on record as saying that when I predicted we would lose it was part tongue in cheek and never did I think we’d look like a high school team.

  73. Is it possible for the Patriots to end up on the road instead for the first round or is that part clinched? UGH! 🙁

    I do NOT feel good for next week’s finale at home vs. Miami regardless of what happens today.

        1. Clinched division title,I believe they would host even with a worst record than the 2 wild card teams, worst case #4 seed.

            1. This lays it out better than I did:

              The NFL Playoffs. Each of the 4 division winners is seeded 1–4 based on their overall records. The two wild card teams (labeled Wild Card 1 and 2) are seeded fifth and sixth (with the better of the two having seed 5) regardless of their records compared to the 4 division winners.

              1. Interesting …. Houston losing to Minnesota and are at Indy next weekend. Maybe Pats get the 2 seed after all, with Houston falling all the way to 3.

  76. 12Z EURO is not good news for snowlovers in MA 🙁 pre new years storm looks like an exact copy of the post xmas storm

    2. Until we get the frigid air from NW Canada these rainstorms will continue to impact us. This marginally cold “junk” from SE Canada is still slightly above normal.

    1. We lost 3 days of school to Sandy, so I am taking a moderate view with this winter, would love snow as long as the kids are not in school during July.

    2. What is even more scary is that Logan is behind snowfall at this time compared to last year. 😉

      Total as of Dec. 23, 2011 = 1.0″
      Total as of Dec. 23, 2012 = 0.9″

      1. Got a long way to go before getting close to my prediction of 37.4 for the winter. Hopefully will get two 10 inch storms and two six inch storms in January, February, and March to come close to that total.

          2. I was very scientific when choosing the total. I didn’t think it would be a big winter although I hoped to be wrong. So I chose my birthday day and the number of grandchildren. But don’t tell anyone 🙂

  78. Hang in there everyone.. Things always change I’m sure we will have some surprises when it comes to the Christmas Day snow and the post Christmas Day storm.

  79. 13-13 at half, with the ball back at start of 3rd qtr……. We’re good !!

    12z EURO ….. Decent storm pressure wise mid next week, but look at the 982 mb storm in about a week.

    And the day after New Year’s day would be icy cold !!!, with bare ground.

    I wonder if last Dec’s +5.3F is back on the table as being beatable because with the next 2 storms, Logan probably gets into the low-mid 40s for a time, with nighttime lows in the mid 30s, so of the remaining 8 days, there’s probably at least 2 more coming with daily anomolies of around +8F. Right now, I think Logan is sitting at +4.9F.

  80. It pains me to say this, but I think i would be OK with getting very little snow this year in my backyard, IF and only if the ski areas in NE get at least an average year in terms of snowfall. Last year was an awful year for most areas. This year, most areas are mostly machine made with 25% or less of total terrain open. My fav ski area growing up had to shut down for good in the late 90’s early 2000’s due to a lack of snow year after year.

    1. Reminds me of a trip in college during the mid-90’s when I convinced a group of friends to drive a few hours to a mountain where I had gone night skiing growing up… during a snowstorm. We get there and drive in circles for an hour in sideways snow looking for the base lodge and only finding a rehab hospital. Turns out he ski area had closed (ouch) 5 or so years earlier and sure enough I was buying rounds for the rest of the night. Good news is they re-opened about 10 years ago – Crotched Mountain.

      1. Too funny Captain! Did u end up skiing somewhere else that day? The place I grew up skiing was Haystack. It was a little mountain owned by Mt. Snow. Loved that place.

        1. Haystack is not familiar. We skied cranmore when I was younger but a smaller mtn opened just above Jackson nh when I was in my early teens. Tyrol. I really enjoyed that too. It’s long out of buisiness.

            1. Really. I’ve never heard of anyone who knew Tyrol. It would have been in area your dad skied my guess is we crossed paths.

        2. It was a total bust Ace. We were all rigged out for a night on the slopes thinking we were going to have fresh tracks on each run the way the snow was falling.

      2. I remember crotchet mtn. I’m laughing at your story. Not funny at the time I know but a great story to be left with to tell

  81. and another disapointment. christmas storm lookes extremely weak with less than 2 inches any where in southern new england.
    post christmas storm looks to be all rain. with onset of precipitation being an icy mix.

    1. As I have been saying…we need the arctic air currently in NW Canada. It is just sitting there not coming down anytime soon if ever. Brett Anderson mentioned this in one of his blogs awhile back and I agree.

  82. It will be interesting to see what the latest CPC outlook shows. In yesterdays 6-10 day outlook it has most of the lower 48 with below normal temps

  83. Beautiful sky today. But breeze made it feel very chilly. I have been reading most of the posts and listening to the weather – looks like a tease with snow for Christmas and then a series of rain events. 🙁 However, you never know – come Feb. or even March, we could get some good snowstorms. I think that has happened in the past – not sure when, ‘though. We finished up any Christmas shopping – some toys for our cat. I made Thanksgiving and I am making Christmas dinner. Turkey, stuffing, gravy, etc. One of my comfort foods!

        1. Oh and if we don’t have a few decent storms I will be more than surprised. I think you are right that it will happen.

  85. Snow in the back yard here from a snow squall yesterday. Not much though 🙂 Hoping SNE gets into some action on Xmas!

  88. Watching Brady live and he just called the effort on the Pats’ part just plain poor all around. It wasn’t good but it was a win.

  89. As things get a little more in focus for the Christmas event, it looks like a 12-hour event, snow except mix/rain parts of South Coast, Cape Cod, Islands, and possibly some mixing immediate East Coast of MA, otherwise largely a light snow event. I like a thick coating to 2 inches in most areas, outside risk of a 3 inch amount in a few inland areas.

    Euro is starting to settle down a bit and get a better handle on things. It may be moving the midweek storm a touch too slow but we’ll see. I’m thinking right now we start as mix/rain coast and snow inland Wed evening then transition to mostly rain all areas, bring a heavy band of rain through overnight for eastern MA, southern NH, RI. Things wind down Thursday as rain to snow showers. Cold air pours in behind system for a cold/windy/dry Friday, and a lighter snow event possible sometime over the weekend. Jury’s out on how it gets introduced but some big time cold may be heading out of Canada and into the Northeast around or just after the New Year. Still think cold/dry for January is a fair bet, despite being in some error on the December forecast.

    1. Im hearing less than an inch in Boston and mostly on grass. Would you agree. I get frustrated because all the mets saying different things, more on timing now. I think if it were now it would be snow. I’m curious to see the temperature at 5am tomorrow leaving for work. Boston and south shore showing 40 for xmas day.

        1. John. It can snow at 40 degrees. Besides, the high temperature for Christmas may touch 40 but that is after the snow falls. Remember, the sun is supposed to come out that day. The high may reach 40 but it has all day to do so. It will likely be in the upper 20’s to as high as the mid 30’s during the duration of the light snow event.

  90. Took a walk at Castle Island today and it was downright chilly! We couldn’t wait to get back to the car.

    Hey John…..I am heading to Oliveira’s in a bit for some yummy pizza. 🙂

    1. That’s first on our list of places to eat when we are on south shore for march. We never got there in August. Enjoy. And I can imagine it was cold on castle island.

  94. From boston down 24 to Taunton and eastward is mainly a rain event, anybody north and west of i95 1-2 inches expected

      1. With all respect you may be asking to much from this storm. Unless there is a big surprise here all mets saying most snow West of the city. If Boston gets more than an inch I would be shocked.

  95. More fantasy stuff from the GFS but fun though.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121223%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_162_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=162&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F23%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=232&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    2. That could even be snow for Marshfield !!

      Hadi, I hope the after Christmas storm works out and delivers a nice front end dump up there in Maine !

  97. I see from Taunton that some drizzle or freezing drizzle may hold on in southeastern Mass during Christmas Day after the early morning snow/rain.

    1. How about Boston tom. channel four had them right on that rain line. So curious too see temp tomorrow leaving for work.

      1. The thing John is the temps gonna be above freezing for 100% of the event and there will be no accumulation on pavement if I was director of sanding I’d probably be smart enough to say don’t waste the money stay home enjoy Christmas bc it will not be hazardous, hope all is well 🙂

        1. That would be great if that happened. You tell it like it is Charlie, you have a very good record here on your forecasting. Have a great Christmas and I hope Santa is good. Time for bed as we work tomorrow.

      2. Even if its snowing John it will look like its raining cause it will be just wet with temps in the city in the mid 30’s 🙂

        1. The crews would want to be safe on this one. Not treating and having 1 accident would make any crew look really bad. And the ground will be cold enough for at least a slick coating of snow on untreated surfaces. December may have been mild to this point, but the sun angle is very low and the pavements do not take long at all to cool right down. Any steady snow even for an hour and it’ll cover right over.

          1. I understand the safety side but sometimes I see some really pushing the envelope if u know what I mean tk 😉

    2. Hi John.

      Not much precip……. Snow in the air to start, maybe mixing with and ending as drizzle, cant imagine more than a half inch or inch, with less on the pavement. Temp at initial start of precip between 30F to 32F, probably climbing towards 33F or 34F around dusk Christmas morning, holding in the mid to upper 30s Christmas Day. Thats my guess. 🙂

  98. Once again, Logan at +2F for today, because the low so far today has been 29F, 3F above the avg of 26F. Considering a bit of a sw breeze and with Buffalo, NY being 33F, it looks like it wont cool off by midnight and the day will be above normal avg wise. I think its something like the 14th day in a row for above avg temps.

  99. Good news is that is the Sudbury river is an indication the water levels have risen. Now if they can just hold it

    1. With heavy rainfall come midweek and then more next weekend, those levels should continue to rise. Logan in fact is back down to single digits in precip deficit fwiw.

  101. all i can say is that im really disapointed and saden that none of the earlier runs vertified and even the christmas day storm looks to become rain in my area. 🙁

    1. most are saying thats out to sea. my gut is saying were not getting much until maybe middle of january.

      1. I’m not going that far. I believe this pattern of storm after storm to continue with plenty of snow and rain.I never bought the dry theory.

        1. The precip deficit says otherwise.

          The pattern has been dry in the longer term. Temporary periods of wetter weather does not mean the overall pattern is wet.

          Boston’s deficit may be back to single #’s, but it’s still significant, and will probably grow again in January.

          It’s not a dry theory, it’s a dry fact.

  104. I do think alot of us do see a 1-2 inch snowfall but like tk said along the east coast and extreme southeast mass cape islands will be mainly rain, I think the jackpot will be somewhere southwest of Boston with a 3 inch amount, I’m gonna try to go sledding before it melts bc I think it melts quick not bc it will be warm but that little usually melts quick

    1. I always try to get a sledding run in when we have a quick snowcover. I was lucky enough to nail it last year about the only time the ground was covered. I don’t ski, so my son and I go sledding.

        1. With the new plastic sleds i could see. But with the old school tobogan or metal rail sled u would need a ton more snow

          1. I have a plastic sled from the 1980s that is still the fastest sled I have ever seen. It just goes on and on. I outspeed any kid on the hill. And it makes it further across the flats at the bottom than any other sled or tube for that matter. I have no idea why it is as good as it is, but I must say it’s quite fun out-distancing and out-speeding everyone. 🙂

  105. Our friends at NEWW posted a map at one point with a 3-5 inch forecast of snow for the Christmas storm. 😉

  106. The Week Ahead is going to be delayed a bit tonight. I want to digest the GFS before I write it. Hopefully the GFS won’t cause me heartburn…………………

      1. Not sure yet. But at the moment I don’t think I’m seeing anything different than the posted forecast above.

    1. It is looking that way. 12Z EURO trended this way as well. Interested to see the 00Z EURO. BTW, storm on the 30th the 18z GFS showed is now OTS. EURO had this as a warm rainstorm.

      1. Hopefully we get some snow out of the post xmas storm. The Christmas storm looks like less precip and possible mix now ugh..I rather at this point have cold/dry then rain after rain storm. Also the West based NAO on the models is pretty negative where the east based NAO is going positive. I think the models are starting to pick up on this.

        1. I agree about rather having cold/dry than rain. Winter rain is just plain gross. Is a west based NAO what we want? I think it is but I wasn’t sure. Does a west based NAO cause storms to go more south and along the coast?

          1. Acemaster,

            I always thought a negative NAO was best but this year I guess we need a West based NAO rather than an east based NAO. It’s a little complicated and I’m no expert so I guess its a better question for TK. But the gfs, euro, and the ensembles have been showing a strong west based NAO.

    1. For the 3rd event, next Sunday …… BB (not Bill Belichek Charlie 🙂 ) seemed to hint this am on ch 4 that the snow would be closer to Boston on that one.

    1. LOL …. I am up early because I know my daughters might wake us up at 3am, which happened last year and so, I want to fall asleep early tonight in case that happens again.

    1. Yes …. and cold to follow !!

      See ch’s 6 and 8 out of Maine (Portland) have introduced ice pellets and/or coastal rain into their Thursday forecast and Gray, ME discussion also seemed to have more sleet/rain for southern and coastal areas in their forecast discussion this am vs. yesterday afternoon.

      Hopefully being further north and a bit more inland than Portland, the area you are in will get several inches before a possible brief transition to some other type of precip.

    1. I’ll be the grinch ….. The midweek storm, once all is said and done (even after a potential start as wintry precip close to or including Boston), I think the heart of it is a 34F to 37F rain event all the way to Lowell, MA ….. Worcester, MA …. And Hartford, CT ……. Logan gets to 41F and south shore and Cape get to 43F to 47F.

      Also, have to wonder how fast the dry slot may cut the precip off from the southwest ?

  115. Coastal rain from the NWS in grey, but here away from coast still expecting all snow. Both euro and GFS support all snow.

  117. Morning_ 32 when I left Pembroke at5am. 34 degrees in Boston. Yes there is a chill in the air, but still not as cold as they were forecasting. I would not say this past weekend was really cold, chilly yes but not super cold. Snow tonight and am tomorrow, oh well. Merry Christmas to all.

    1. Merry Christmas, John! Tonight/tomorrow’s snow event looks to be just enough to add to the Christmas spirit, but not too much to cause travel headaches. All be safe and have a wonderful holiday!!!

  118. Tweet from BB

    “@BarryWBZ: 2 much stronger storms on the way with heavy precipitation and gusty winds. Wed. night/Thur then again Sat. night into Sunday. #wbz”

    Notice heavy precipitation not just plain rain. Maybe I am reading too much into things.

    1. He said rain for the post Xmas storm and that snow would be “closer” to Boston for the pre-New Year’s Eve storm.

    1. 3-6 in Boston for Wed. Night into Thursday ?????

      Bahahahhahahhahahahaha….his prediction loses all credibility right there.

    1. To defend them both (I’m serious), from an office hundreds of miles away, its difficult to account for /or undstand a local region’s microhappenings during storms. Because we live locally, we probably understand better that a storm with Wednesday’s track is going to flood eastern New England quickly with enough mild air to not allow a measurable snowfall in Boston.

      Or another example might be this……I’d never put out a snowfall map for say Michigan. I’m sure those Great Lakes cause snowfall contours that I’d never be able to guess, because I just dont have any experience of living there locally and understanding those effects.

  124. Picturesque snow on the way for overnight into Christmas morning
    The next storm system it could briefly start wintry for areas near and at the coast before plain rain. Now way do I see 3-6 inches for those areas. Areas further inland are the ones that could get a couple inches before the switch to sleet and then plain rain. The 3-6 should be for the far interior not near the coast and I think it will be closer to the 3 inch mark.

  125. Buoy 44098, several miles offshore, ever so slightly north of due east of Gloucester, NH…..

    Water temp : 49.6 F. Wow !!!

    Cant see a strong enough high to our north to bring into play ageostrophic wind. Have a feeling Logan will see wind direction of 060 to 080 during heart of storm and probably 025 to 040 inland that will take the maritime air above these anomolously mild ocean temps and send the mix/rain line well, well inland.

  126. Its amazing the water temps are warmer up there compared to Long Island Sound with a temperature of 44 degrees.

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