Christmas Day Update

143 Comments

12:05PM

The small snow (mix/rain for some) event is about over. A touch less snow fell than expected as the energy split in 2 and one area went rapidly eastward across far southern New England overnight and a second area went north of southern New England during the morning. But some snow did fall, and much of central and northern MA, some areas to the south, and also southern NH did see at least a heavy dusting of snow.

Looking ahead, still seeing 2 storms coming along during the remainder of this week. Wednesday/Thursday: Track of low should be near Cape Cod with snow/mix to start in most areas, some accumulation, then warm air taking over with a switch to rain in the Route 95 belt with a mix further west and north. Saturday/Sunday: Jury’s out still but colder air in place should support snow. Track of low is a question. It may be a little further south and east which would mean lighter snow but at least some chance this one tracks close enough to drop significant snow on parts of southern New England. Stay tuned…

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy but a few breaks of sun possible. Highs 35-40. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow possible by late afternoon south and west of Boston except mix  South Coast. Highs 33-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow developing all areas except mix to rain south of Boston eventually working north and northwest into the 95 belt. Up to a few inches of snow possible before the change over, especially north and west of Boston. Several inches of snow may accumulate in the 495 belt north of the Mass Pike. Lows 28-33 early then rising slowly. Wind NE-E 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH in some eastern coastal areas.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain except some mix still possible in interior southern NH and north central MA, tapering off later in the day. Highs 35-45 from northwest to southeast. Wind E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM snow. Low 22. High 31.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM snow. Low 25. High 30.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 30.

143 thoughts on “Christmas Day Update”

  3. Thanks TK.

    Tom so what is your forecast for Augusta ? You seem to be thinking a mix and I looked over everything and I do not see it.

    1. Hmmmm …. Remember my overall accuracy is 27.48% 🙂

      2 to 4 inches, then a period of sleet or cold rain, ending as an inch of snow as the storm drags in a bit colder air before the precip shuts off.

      1. Really 2-4? Local news has over 10 inches and no rain mixing in….hmmmm I guess I just don’t see what you are thinking. I see 540 line below Augusta, 850 temps are in good shape as well.

      1. Even if that were to verify, there would definitely be precip type issues to say the least practically clinging to Buzzard’s Bay if I am reading it correctly. Anyway, it is expected to be dry and cold for awhile after New Year’s.

  5. TK, what does “NEWW” stand for? You mentioned in the previous blog that they forecasted plowable snow for Boston today which obviously didn’t pan out anywhere in SNE…or NNE for that matter, as far as I know.

    2. On one of their recent posts, referring to the fact this coming weekend is going to be a major snowstorm for all including Cape Cod, they gave themselves a pat on the back, verbally.

      Rule #1 in weather communication: Don’t pat yourself on the back too hard. You’ll end up coughing.

    2. I love how you post pictures here. Let’s snap a photo of ourselves here,lol. What’s it doing in the city today.

      2. John,

        I do one of 2 things:

        1. I load my photos onto a personal website I have with Comcast. I don’t have anything on there, except the few photos that I post. Then I simply post the image link to it.

        2. I copy an image location from Facebook. Either a photo I posted there or a friend posted there.

    1. With this set up, IF we had a “true” Arctic High banked to our North,
      We would get clobbered by this!

      1. 12Z Canadian:

        42 Hours:
        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=045&fixhh=1&hh=042

        45 Hours:
        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=042&fixhh=1&hh=045

        48 hours:
        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=045

        54 HOURS:
        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=045&fixhh=1&hh=054

        As JJ says, this storm “May” have some tricks up its sleeve!
        😀 😀 😀

        1. BTW, for ALL of those panels above the 850MB 0C
          line remains well South of Boston to Nearly Boston at
          48 hours, then south again after that.

          This could get really interesting, especially “Just” N&W
          of Boston. 😀 😀 😀

  16. This storm system could have some tricks up it sleeves. I am not saying this will be the case here but I have seen it before. These low pressure systems have minds of their own.

  19. Its not just today for severe weather. The threat moves into the Carolina’s tomorrow with once again some areas under a moderate risk for severe weather.
    This is all part of the same storm system that will give us a wintry mess up here.

      1. From wxrisk.com

        Brett Nelson DT the pattern now showing up on the day 8-10 EURO & GFS has mega cold and a masterful split flow, +PNA, colossal setup.

  23. TK, I got a real kick out that “Rule #1 in weather communication” comment you made. It really cracked me up to say the least. Truer words were never spoken. 😀

    I don’t even remotely recognize the names of the mets there listed at NEWW…TK, do you happen to know any of them personally or by reputation? Just curious.

  25. Old Salty,

    Totally agree. But I think will get a couple of inchs up front. Maybe a little more easterly move south and east. Definitely having Alot of fun watching and reading all the comments.

    I hope everyone’s having a Great Day! God Bless

    2. TJ,

      I was reading the NWS write up on this system. And that coupled with
      the precip maps for the Canadian, it sure looks like the bulk of the precip
      for this event is front loaded!!! At the front end the mid-levels are cold
      enough to support snow. If we can keep away from boundary layer issues,
      we may get more snow that currently forecasted. Something to watch for sure!

      Have a great day! Heading out soon.

  27. Old Salty,

    You look at the Euro yet? Its a little colder and the next storm on sunday looks a little closer. Got alot of things to watch.

    1. TJ, I’ve been looking at everything I can get my hands on.

      Was just looking at 12Z Euro with Wundermap. IT tracks the low
      To just SE of Nantucket and then into the Gulf of Maine. This is more
      East and South than previous runs.

      This run has a couple of inches of snow for Boston and about 4-6 around
      Worcester or so.

      I still think that a snowier scenario will play out, of course boundary layer
      issues not withstanding.

      Btw, the weekend storm looks to be a glancing blow only as it goes
      mostly OTS. Still early.

      1. HAHA…I know its a good time. Thank you for posting all the links for canadian, ukmet, no gaps, and all the rest. Let me know if you seeing anything further. I just have a little understanding of the models so that’s what I depend on. I know the water temp is going to have a big influence on the coast but there’s always a chance the cold air holds on longer and the high to the north is stronger than what the models are predicting.

        1. The Key is having a more Northerly component to the
          wind and less of an Easterly component. Also precip intensity is also key. The more intense the better.

          I’d like to see winds no more Easterly than 030 degrees.
          045 degrees is marginal, but with this water, probably no good. 060, Fugettaboutit! 090, HAHAHAHA

  28. Oh boy, hey Hadi…. Can I change my to 2-4 inches ?? Saw the EURO, ok, I am going to be way too low. Thats ok 🙂 .

    Drizzle/light rain has transitioned to some kind of snow flurries/drizzly ice pellets. I dont know, but its definitely frozen, whatever it is. Very light, but nice.

  30. My friends in dallas tell me they had there 2nd white Christmas outa the last 3 yrs, there telling me big snowflakes the size of half dollars

    1. Too bad we here in SNE can’t say the same. It seems when we do get snow lately, it ends up just after Christmas Day like back in 2010 or not for some time thereafter like last winter. IIRC our last true White Christmas was in 2008.

      1. If locals along the I-95 corridor just south of us have colder solutions such as Philly, Balt, DC etc. then maybe we get more excited about snow for Boston. 😉

    1. No snow in Brighton at this time. Keeping my fingers crossed with all the favorable updates regarding the next storm.

  34. Ch. 7….snow map posted at 3:54 p.m….
    1-3″ 128-495
    3-6″ along and west of 495 to Townsend/Worcester
    6-12″ there west

    Any thoughts?

  35. @NWSBoston: Latest model guidance suggest a tad colder solution for Wed ngt into Thurs storm system. #MAwx #NHwx #CTwx #RIwx

    From the NWS.

  36. Very interesting from NWS in grey

    COMPLEX STM SYS MOVG OUT OF THE GULF STATE THIS AFTN. THIS SYS
    WILL REFORM OFF THE MID ATLC CST WED…BFR MOVG NE. GFS…AND THE
    EURO ARE IN AGREEING CAMPS IN TERMS OF TRACK AND COOLER THERMAL
    PROFILE. THE NAM IS VERY WARM…WITH THE GGEM VERY COLD. HAVE
    FOLLOWED THE THE GFS/EURO SOLN. HAVING SAID THAT…TREMENDOUS
    AMNTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STATES MAY PLAY HAVOC WITH THE
    TRACK OF THIS LOW…AND WITH OUR CURRENT…NEWLY FORMED SNOWPACK
    IN PLACE…HAVE NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNTED THE POSSIBLY OF THE COOLER
    GGEM SOLN. THEREFORE…HAVE LEFT WINTER STORM WATCHES UP ALONG THE
    COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE EVENT THIS COOLER SCENARIO
    COMES TO FRUITION. IN ANY CASE…THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT

  39. 18z gfs looks further to the west only slightly. No real change that I can see. I’m sure with the intense convection and strength of storm things may change quickly around here and maybe alot of nowcasting.

  43. Here is some Christmas Day snow stats for Boston:

    Today Logan received 0.2″ of snow which brings the year to date total of 1.1″ which is 0.1″ ahead of last year LOL. 😀

    The record for snowfall for 12/25 is 3.3″ set in 1974 and 2002.

    I have absolutely no memory of the 2002 snowfall and yet I remember well just about every detail on Christmas Day 1974…go figure. 😉

    I have no idea why but it is actually uncommon for Boston to snow on Christmas Day itself. According to JR that is a fact. Don’t ask me about the suburbs and distant interior…I don’t know if it applies but I suspect it does to some extent at least. ❓

    1. Philip it was the 2002 storm I was referring to on here the other day. I couldn’t remember if it was 02 or 03. It was about 6-8 here.

    1. No…just got wsw ping on my phone. I’ll have to check after people leave my house. Maybe i’ll sneak out somewhere!

  46. BaileyMan, or at least someone using that name, posted a few hours ago on the WBZ site. It is a comment on Barry’s blog from this morning.

  48. Hey TK,

    I use to post on wbztv with you all…glad I found you all! I am more a reader than poster and have too much to learn to really provide any analysis, but would love the chance to join and post. Let me know if I can! Thanks.

    – John

    1. Sorry for the delay in approving your post.

      Welcome to the blog!

      You are free to post any comments/questions you want to.

      The only thing I ask is for people to be civil to each other and keep it clean as I do have several children that read the blog, and I generally like to keep a clean and friendly atmosphere here.

      Of course not everybody will become best friends or get along perfectly and differences often come up during discussions, but as long as civility rules, it’s all good.

      I hope you enjoy the blog!

  49. Happy Christmas night. I talked to my sister in law in Atlanta earlier and she said they are expecting some sever weather there

    I also talked to my older half brother who has lived in the concord NH area all of his life. He said there is absolutely no doubt that November and December of late has been warmer. He’s been on ether the ski team or ski patrol most of his 70 years. A good portion at sunapee. He skis every day. He also water skis competitively. He said December 5 a few years ago they were water skiing on lake sunapee. And there has always been skating in the lake by thanksgiving.

    Hate to belabor the point but the stats may show a colder November but something different is keeping the lakes from icing over and natural snow from the mountains. I believe most of us old timers remember skating by this time

    I am back on my mission to find out. Perhaps it is inconsistent cold. That’s all I can think of

      1. Vicki…we have yet to tap into the real arctic air and that is why nothing has really frozen and the reason we have yet to have any significant snow. It has been stuck in NW Canada. There are signs that will change come New Year’s…the cold that is. It remains to be seen regarding the weekend storm though.

        I hope everyone had a nice Christmas today! 🙂

        1. Philip sorry i didnt explain well. I didnt mean just for this year. It has been a far different scenario for much of this century as far as november and even december are concerned. My brother was saying that if they didnt have the snow making machines they do now, for too many years the ski areas that always had snow in December wouldn’t have had a thing.

      1. Been a lot longer than that Charlie As I said he was water skiing on dec 5 in lake sunapee not many years back. And it’s been the rare exception that they can skate on the lake on this century rather than the norm

        1. I’m thinking that it is pretty much the same that TK said about not putting all bets on the models and using weather knowledge along side those models. You can look at stats all you want but when you look out the window reality doesn’t lie.

        2. Ummm Vicki now I’m the one that usually says no snow or ice but I was ice skating with 7 guys on the back pong jan 2010, maybe there’s a shooting laser coming up from the earth in Framingham 🙂

            1. And I’m talking about new Hampshire and November/December. Not January. I think you are as tired as I am tonight 😉

    3. That’s the problem we won’t find out, there’s not an answer to everything, but it’s been getting warmer for 100’s of yrs now, give it time in 1,000 yrs we will have winters closer to Virginia on a consistent basis, the problem is u have the global warming haters that say its weather cycles which we can never prove wrong and the global warming believers (science) cannot be proven wrong either so we continue to do nothing and wait, it’s gonna be fun around these parts when the sea level rises another 2 ft, good luck to the grand kids kids,

  50. Quite the severe weather outbreak for December going on in parts of the south. Last check 15 tornadoes which I believe is the most ever for Christmas Day. This is all part of the same storm system that will bring a popurri of precipitation to the area tomorrow night and into Thursday.
    Got to be on the lookout for the possiblity of some surprises. I am not saying it will happen but you never know.
    Snow Index 1 to the west of the I-95 corridor and a 2 for areas in and around the Worcester area.

  51. Hi Philip…. I am leaving Boston out because I think the transition to plain rain will be quick compared to the other areas. Will see how this plays out and if the 1 area needs to be extended further east.
    Hope you had a nice Christmas!

  55. I hope everyone is having a nice Christmas, the latest nam shows rain for Boston and Providence, no change in my thinking, have a good night everyone 🙂

  56. NAM has been showing warm solutions for a number of runs now. Dropping a ton of precip 2.5-3inchs. Its trended a little further south than 18z but still wet in Boston.

  58. Interesting write up from NWS Taunton Ma.

    They believe models are trending a little to warm….

    .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/…
    WEDNESDAY…
    BULK OF THE FORECAST WAS FOCUSED ON THIS DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS
    TO BE QUITE POTENT TO IMPACT THE REGION. MODELS INDICATING A
    STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE APPALACHIA REGION. OUT AHEAD
    OF THIS SYSTEM IS A GOOD RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVING INTO
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

    EXPECT THE BEGINNING OF TOMORROW TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS POOLING IN
    DURING THE DAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPS TO
    REMAIN QUIET COOL. THEREFORE BELIEVE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A TAD TO WARM
    WITH TEMPS…SO HAVE DROPPED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OVERALL TEMPS WILL
    NOT GET OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 30S. LEANED TO A MORE EC AND GFS
    SOLUTION FOR WED AS THE NAM AND SREF WHERE TO SLOW COMPARED TO THE
    REMAINDER OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE. EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
    FROM SSW TO THE NE AFTER 18Z. THEREFORE AM CONCERNED FOR THE
    EVENING COMMUTE ON WED AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE QUITE TRICKY…ESP
    ALONG THE 95 CORRIDOR.

    THERMAL PROFILERS ARE QUIET COLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION…EXPECT
    FOR NEAR THE SOUTH COASTLINE. BELIEVE ONCE WHEN EVAPORATION COOLING
    WILL TAKE PLACE…THE ONSET OF PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. CLOSER TO
    THE SOUTH COAST WILL BE A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ACROSS THE
    MASS PIKE AND 95 CORRIDOR…SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW…BUT SNOW
    MIGHT START TO ACCUMULATE ESP ON UNTREATED SURFACES. ALTHOUGH THIS
    EVENT IS STILL 24 HOURS AWAY…THERE MAY STILL BE SUBTLE CHANGES
    TO THE THERMAL PROFILE THEY MAY CHANGE THE STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP
    TYPE.

    &&

    .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/…

    WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY…
    SHORTWAVE WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION RACES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
    APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
    NIGHT…CROSSING NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET
    OF 60-70 KNOTS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT…GENERATING
    STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN EXCESS OF 30 MB/HOUR. THIS AND DEEP
    MOISTURE WILL CREATE BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA WITH GENEROUS
    PRECIPITATION. THE LIFT MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY
    AFTERNOON…SO THE STORM SHOULD WIND DOWN AT THAT TIME.

    ALL MODELS SHOW A STRONG NORTH AGEOSTOPHIC FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
    WHICH SHOULD DRAW PLENTY OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION. THIS IN TURN
    SHOULD SUPPORT A COASTAL TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW AND COLDER
    TEMPS THAN MOST OF THE MODELS/MOS ARE INDICATING. WE TOOK THE
    COLDER SOLUTIONS AND SUBTRACTED A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE GRIDS
    DREW UPON THESE TEMPS AS WELL AS THE GFS AND ECMWF TIMING OF PCPN.

    WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MASS
    AND NORTHERN CT. AS GYX IS ISSUING A WS WARNING FOR THE BULK OF
    NEW HAMPSHIRE…WE WILL CONVERT CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH TO A
    WARNING. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO REMAIN SNOW LONGEST…AND
    BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMS OVER 6 INCHES.

    THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY…
    BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF TIMING…CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFF
    DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
    SURFACE AND ALOFT ON FRIDAY WITH CLEARING OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
    WE STAYED CLOSE TO MOS/HPC VALUES.

    1. Not a good night for that. Was your son excited with santas gifts, John?? im so glad you were able to stay home. I had accepted the fact and totally understood that my son would be at work all day and then head to his girls in RI but at 10:00 am he pulled into the driveway. They’d overstaffed and let him go for the day. Was a very special surprise.

      1. Yes he was. We had an awesome Christmas, It sounds like you did ad well. Off tomorrow if not called in tonight, I don’t care now. Merry Christmas Vicki.

  61. Does anyone else notice that the Low seems to be further west over New Orleans than what is being shown on the gfs? I could be reading it completely wrong but I think the model is off…

  63. 00z gfs is a bit further south…Storm is taking a track just south of long island and over the islands. Rain/Snow line goes up to NH rain on the coast. It will be fun to see how it plays out tomorrow night and thursday.

  65. Yes its going to be rain tomorrow night/thursday but I hoping for a surprise. We never have any good surprises anymore can’t the models be a little off…

  66. Yuck! The weekend storm is pretty much OTS. Well we got plenty of time to watch this storm. I’m heading to bed its been a Great Day! Have a Great Night Everyone!

    PS Give me some good news when I check the blog tomorrow morning..Such as storm is further south and Boston getting 14inchs of snow, weekend storm is full blown and looking at 2ft plus!!!

    Thanks

    1. Well, not that much time. Getting into crunch time with that one. Need to start nailing that down as it would start sometime sat eve/night. That’s only 4 days away. My gut tells me that thing stays south but my desperation for snow tells me we get slammed. We’ll see!

  68. Interesting comments from Weather Wisdom at 10PM:

    From the Route 2 area west of Route 495 and points north, a foot of snow is likely. In Boston, a slushy accumulation could occur early in the storm before much of it washes away. From Haverhill to Wilmington to Wayland south to Framingham and Milford the amounts could vary few miles of that line by 6 inches. Putting this another way, between Route 128 and Route 495, I wouldn’t be surprise to see a slushy inch on the ground in at the close of the storm or as much as a foot. I know this doesn’t help you to make a forecast with such a wide range and I will fine tune this later Wednesday.

  69. Alright sorry I’m addicted to this stuff. Matt Noyes says that gfs trend is colder. I think we get a good surprise.

  70. Hope everyone had a great Christmas. We arrived here in central NY late this afternoon. There is 8″ of snow on the ground, most of which fell from the lake effect event this past Friday/ Saturday. We have a WSW here for 10-16″ of snow tomorrow night and Thursday. We are expecting 2″ per hour snow rates tomorrow night for 4 or 5 hours. Very excited, haven’t been in a storm like this since January 2011! Will check in again tomorrow.

  71. and this storm is a dud. its just more disapointment for me as i want a good snow storm but i want it here in billerica. precipitation from snow to rain but that rain line will have a real easy time getting up to 128 and 495 by around 3am. not much snow accumulation inside of 495. 🙁 it changed from last night

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