Strong Storm Coming

412 Comments

2:02AM

A strong storm will track up the East Coast today through Thursday with the center likely passing close to Cape Cod MA early Thursday. This storm will be progressive and move away quickly later Thursday, but during its passage it will produce a variety of precipitation along with some strong wind. Cold air in place to start with will allow for snow to occur in much of the region at the onset (though milder ocean area will have already made it warm enough for mix/rain along the South Coast and Cape Cod). How quickly the snow comes in will determine how fast it can accumulate before milder air from the ocean changes it to mix and then rain along the East Coast then pushing inland possibly as far as the 495 belt, even north of the Mass Pike. There will likely be a very sharp gradient in this region from very little snow to a rapid buildup to significant accumulation. It all winds down Thursday, though some of the heaviest precipitation may be around during the morning commute (rain coast and some distance inland, mix/snow far inland). Strongest winds from the east may also occur early Thursday morning with some coastal flooding and minor wind damage possible. Everything winds down later Thursday. Friday is a quieter and colder day behind the storm, setting the stage for a weekend snow threat as another low pressure area moves up and off the East Coast. Early indications are that this low will be further south and east and may take its heavier precipitation offshore with it, but it’s far enough way that confidence is low and this system needs to be watched.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Sunshine gives way to clouds. Snow possible by late afternoon south and west of Boston except mix South Coast. Highs 33-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow developing all areas except mix to rain south of Boston eventually working north and northwest into the 95 belt. Up to a few inches of snow possible before the change over, especially north and west of Boston. Several inches of snow may accumulate in the 495 belt north of the Mass Pike. Lows 28-33 early then rising slowly. Wind NE-E 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH in some eastern coastal areas.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain except some mix still possible in interior southern NH and north central MA, tapering off later in the day. Highs 35-45 from northwest to southeast. Wind E 20-30 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM snow. Low 22. High 31.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM snow. Low 25. High 30.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 30.

412 thoughts on “Strong Storm Coming”

  1. Thank you TK.

    Watched BB on BZ this am. His snow map showed D-2″, 2-4″ 4-8″ and a foot plus the further NNW you go from Boston. Then a conversion to rain for most MA areas and then showers on the back end. For the Boston area, some front and accumulation, but the story is about “messiness” more than snow. Also mentioned high winds.

    Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of MA.

    Barry also forecasting the weekend storm as OTS.

  2. Thanks TK.
    A wintry mess on the way with the track coming to close to us to keep it from a snowier solution. The weekend storm POTENTIAL I think stays over the fish. I hope that changes since that would be a snow track for us.

  3. Wish I saw something that would provide white vs. wet for eastern areas but I just don’t see it with that low track.

    WSW posted for 12-16 inches and locally higher amounts. Just like Mark I have not been this excited in a long time. Just wish you all were as well in SNE.

  4. Thanks TK !!

    23F at Logan, I believe by far the coldest so far this cold season. However, Caribou, ME is 15F and the pressures are slowly falling already, indicating high pressure in retreat.

    Taunton has slightly blinked once already, lowering the snow totals. The high wind watch is now up to the north shore and I dont think thats for a northerly surface wind.

    I had momentary weakness towards a colder solution yesterday afternoon, but after fallling asleep at 7pm yesterday, my senses are back 🙂 🙂

    I think the Taunton NWS snow totals will need one more adjustment to the Northwest about 50 miles and then they’ll be good.

  5. Nice graphic Tom!! I am about 10 miles south of Augusta so hoping close to the 16 :). Not be greedy or anything.

    Out of curiosity what triggered you to say 2-4 inches yesterday?

    1. Hi Hadi.

      Well, if I look at the 36 hr panel on the 12/26 0z GFS, the 1,000-500 mb 540 thickness is forecast to be over Albany, NY then goes northeastward thru the central White Mtns and heads east-northeastward to just inland along the Maine coastline. If we went by that, wow, these snow forecasts are going to bust even worst than I think, because isnt the 540 thickness an important tool on where to expect rain vs. snow ?

      So, I do believe in trying to post all info to give all views of an upcoming storm and I only thought it right to post a Maine channel’s snowfall map.

      I just hope the area you are in is far enough away from the coastline, thats all !! Believe me, I hope the ch 6 forecast verifies, especially after how long its been without a good snowstorm. I wrote 2 to 4, so, once its in writing, I cant take it back.

  6. We shall see , the 540 line stays south and east of our area but its close. I am confident in nearly all snow with maybe a touch of sleet at the end of the storm. Alcoa more important to look at short range models vs. global models.

  7. NEEW on FB calling local mets stupid and they will have an accumulation map for Boston by 12 noon…… Hmmmmm

    1. Well that would be an unexpected treat, for sure! Enjoy the snow in ME, Hadi! My son’s now in Tiffin, OH which are under Blizzard Warnings.

  8. I would like to see what data they are looking at.
    I have not given Boston a number for the on the 1-4 Snow Index since I think whatever wintry precipitation they get goes quickly over to rain. Areas west of the I-95 corridor are at a 1 since there will be some accumulation. Farther west I have at 2 since those areas could exceed 4 inches of snowfall.

  9. 15 degrees with freezing fog this morning here in northern Oneida county in central NY. We have about 8″ of snow on the ground right now. NWS Binghamton calling for 10-16 inches for our area with most occurring in a four hour period of 2-3″ per hour snows between 9pm and 1am tonight. The local mets even here are concerned that some mixing could impact these totals in eastern areas. However, The NWS did mention that the 0z runs of both the GFS and NAM initialized too warm and that the euro and cmc were colder.

  10. If your in Boston or close to it look at whats happening in D.C. in Baltimore with the very quick burst of snow and notice how just as fast the rain is moving in there. Thats what I think plays out here. I would be surprised if Boston records an inch from this.
    If NEEW ends up correct with an accumulation for Boston I will give them praise on this blog.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    If I had a choice we’d get either all snow or all rain. I would rather have all snow then have any ice. But at this point, I don’t think anyone is absolutely sure where the snow/ice/rain line will be or when or where the precip. will turn to all rain, except the Cape and South coast area. I am guessing that MetroWest area of MA will receive some ice and sleet at some point. I just hope it doesn’t last that long.

  12. Indianapolis area getting dumped on significantly right now with heavy snow !!!

    Georgia’s Bank ocean buoy (about 180 miles east of Hyannis)

    Air temp : 66F, Water Temp : 67F. Why dont they do the polar plunge activities out there ? I might even put a toe in from the boat.

    1. Tom, I thought you were joking, but here it is.
      Clearly this is in Error or is an old reading or the instruments
      are stuck or some other malfunction! 😀

      GEORGES BANK 170 NM East of Hyannis, MA
      (44011) 41.1333N 65.0948W
      Last Updated: Dec 26 2012, 8:50 am AST
      Wed, 26 Dec 2012 08:50:00 -0400
      Temperature: 66.2 °F (19.0 °C)
      MSL Pressure: 1017.0 mb
      Water Temperature: 66.9 °F (19.4 °C)
      Wave Height: 2.4 m (7.87 ft)
      Dominant Period: 11 sec
      Average Period: 7.6 sec

      1. Not sure. I seem to recall in reading Sebastian Junger’s book The Perfect Storm, that out by George’s Bank, you encounter the northern edge of the gulf stream and suddenly, the air can go from being very cold to quite mild.

    1. Well, I thought for sure you were going to say SE to NW!!!
      NE to SW is a GOOD sign for at least the front end snow before
      the mid-level warms. Had it been the other way, the boundary layer
      would warm too much prior to precipitation onset.

  15. UGH!!! My Meter is rising. Oh wait a minute, it broke previously! 😀

    Perhaps some front end snow, then down the tubes from there.
    And to add insult to injury, sure looks like weekend storm is OTS!
    Time for that to change, but doesn’t look so hot right now.

    What is all this talk about from NEWW?

    I wouldn’t believe a word they say. I think everyone on this blog could make
    a better forecast than they. 😀

      1. The 12z NAM’s 540 thickness is soooooooo far northwest, again if I am reading correctly, its up by Burlington, VT, NH/Canada border and into central Maine. Its low is across eastern Long Island and over the south shore of Boston.

        The good news…..at its initialized point, the 546 thickness is over Washington, DC, which would mean rain right now and DC is reporting 34F with light snow, so clearly it is initialized to mild.

          1. This is what TOM meant and he is correct:

            http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20121226%2F12%2Fnam_namer_030_1000_500_thick.gif&fcast=030&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&cycle=12%2F26%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=87&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

            This is nuts.

  19. From NEWW 9 minutes ago:

    Looking at the latest shows that the biggest Pressure falls have now shifted to North Carolina, indication that the transfer or secondary new low is just where we had it a week ago. It’s not over the Delmarva Peninsula as the GFS had it. Going to be fun Bean Town.

    New England Weather Works
    about an hour ago
    Where do these TV Meteorologists get their forecasts, was Just watching one out of Boston, No names please, but all I can say is WOOOOOW, He tracks the Low center right across Massachusetts exiting this baby into the Boston Harbor. Going to be a lot of surprised Boston residents come tomorrow Morning.

  20. Look at this from grey nws office, something to keep an eye in SNE. Granted no snow pack but stil…..

    —1330Z UPDATE—
    TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING 5-9F DEGREES COLDER
    THAN FORECASTED…PRESUMABLY DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
    ABOVE NEW SNOWPACK. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
    THIS MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW PRECIPITATION STARTS
    TONIGHT.

  21. I am not a big fan of the NAM at all. It over does the precipitation.
    Another thing to remember with this storm system are the winds and they could be gusting. I would not be surprised if there are some power outages across SNE.

  22. Here you go Tom, pretty much throw out the NAM for temps.

    STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST
    ======================================
    PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE

    INITIALLY, THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE 2-3C TOO WARM WITH ITS 850
    HPA FREEZING LINE ACROSS VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND THE UPPER OHIO
    VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS PROBLEMS ARE CONSTRAINED TO A 2-3C ERROR IN
    THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THESE 850 HPA TEMPERATURE ERRORS HAVE
    POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR THEIR FORECAST WINTER WEATHER
    PRECIPITATION TYPES EARLY ON. SEE WINTER WEATHER
    GRAPHICS/PRODUCTS FROM HPC AND LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON
    SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EXPECTATIONS WITH THIS CYCLONE.

    DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, THE 00Z NAM BECOMES A SLOWER THAN
    THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
    NORTHEAST FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARD, AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
    CORNER OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
    SURFACE LOW POSITION FRIDAY MORNING. TREND-WISE, THE GUIDANCE HAS
    STRENGTHENED THIS SYSTEM OVER THEIR PAST DAY OF RUNS, BUT THE NAM
    HAS STOPPED TRENDING QUICKER/NORTHEAST. WITH THE 21Z SREF/00Z
    GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORTING THE QUICKER NON-NAM
    CONSENSUS, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-NAM COMPROMISE HERE WITH
    AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE.

  23. Look at this VA radar. Notice the clear indication of cold air damming.
    AND the slugs of precipitation in Eastern NC. Hmmm???????
    Nowcasting is commencing. 😀

      1. Captain,

        Clearly there could be. It “could” mean a more prolonged
        period of snow at the front end. I emphasize “could”. We’ll just have to watch and see. If that wind has too much of an Easterly component, it will rain on the coast no matter what the mid-level temps are.

    4. On the plus side, the strong vertical upward motion and heavy precip should help to cool the column …..

      On the negative side, remember that icing event just away from the coastline a week or so ago. About 6 to 10 hrs prior to the event, the sfc pressures were around 30.60 inches and it was -2F in Caribou, ME. Today the sfc pressures are around 30.30 inches and its 14F in Caribou, so I do think the resistance is going to be as strong this time. Weaker high pressure to start and a much stronger ocean breeze.

  24. Cape Cod already in the rain column (no surprises there) ……

    9am temps …..

    Hyannis, 38F ……. Chatham, 36F …… Nantucket, 39F with dewpoints of 25 to 30F.

    1. Is today the day for SURPRISES? probably not. We’re just reaching I’m sure.
      But we’ll be watching just the same.

    1. Mark : 9.7 inches of snow, Hadi : 3.6 inches then a 4 to 5 hr period of sleet to cold rain, followed by a transition back to snow that accumulates 1.5 inches.

    1. DUH! Sorry all. The above is for the weekend storm. My Bad.
      I got all excited for nothing_!(@*(#&*(!@&#&!@*&#!*(

      2. Guess what, Even though I clicked on the Euro ensemble,
        I actually got the GFS. So the above IS the GFS ensemble mean.

        There are some glitches on that website.

  29. oh good that its goin to snow up north of rt 2 and every where buy where i live. precipitation from snow to rain but that rain line will have a real easy time getting up to 128 and 495 by around 3am. not much snow accumulation inside of 495. it changed from last night much warmer solutions that last night. 🙁

  30. Tom, I’m with you with about 10″ for my location near Rome, NY. I’m more concerned with getting dry slotted here than mixing but either way, I think it will be tough to achieve 16″. Further west near Rochester, I could see someone hitting that with lake enhancement.

      1. Hadi, I’m going with a foot for your area. You’ll get most of the precip falling in the form of heavy snow before any changeover, if there even is one. If not, I could see you getting 14 or 15″!

    1. Position of coastal low, deeper low pressure area so the resistance near and within a good 50 to 100 miles of the coastline, I think, is going to be weak, weaker high pressure ahead of the storm ( only 30.30 inches vs last week’s icing system of 30.60 inches ), above normal ocean temps of 1 to 2 celcius. All it takes is to get a sliver of mildness in the overall column, combined with enough mildness at the boundary layer 33F or 34F for a few hrs during a storm and poof, that can change a big, big snowfall into more of an advisory level snowfall.

      1. Yeah I guess but as temps are running 10 below guidance can’t bite on that. You are basing these chances on the nam temps which is tricky to do. It’s funny climate wise here, it can be 35 degrees on I-95 and 5 degrees colder at my in laws. Local climatology as a role.

    1. If I am not mistaken, that shows some 3 inch hourly rates in SW CT.
      Impressive! I wonder which models it uses. It says it is experimental.

    1. New England Weather Works
      Pressure falling rapidly now in southeast VA, a lot of Boston wx forecasts are going to go down in flames, we are readying an important map for all of southern New England, get the shovels and snow blowers fired up.

      1. I’m not ready to bite on that. Let’s just watch that rain/snow line today to our south.

        I do like the last few frames in Northern Va. showing the line having pressed a little S/SE.

        It’s time to watch the weather now.

  36. I don’t know what to think at the moment other than that’s a lot of juice to our south.

    I’m happy to see temps here at 26 with 12 dew point though.

    hoping for a little more southern tug obviously…. 50 miles would get me in the 12″ zone and put some of you guys in the coastal plain in play.

  38. Marshfield’s in the rain column, again no surprise….boy, those low clouds were a sign of ocean mildness….. The temp has zoomed up to 37F…..

  41. Despite the early pressure falls over VA, parent storm is so strong that it is sending a surge of warmth northeastward ahead of it. That coupled with A very strong easterly wind component ahead of the developing coastal storm is going to quickly overwhelm the cold air damming in SNE. I think Taunton’s totals are overdone. When there is concern for significant mixing as far west as Albany and Utica, it usually doesn’t bear very well for snow in SNE. There’s too much energy with the parent low which is too far west

    1. If the coastal gets going in the right position, it will cut off that
      warm surge. Question is, when and where does it get going.
      Btw, I do believe that it will.

  43. Since 70% of the mass population lives in eastern mass, most of us see lots of rain esp if you live in the Boston to Providence corridor, I do not see this being a big deal for eastern and southeastern mass 🙂

  44. All of the fb post I’m seeing all say lots of rain except for 1 person that’s in Nashua, but Nashua far from me, good luck 🙂

  45. New England Weather Works
    Looking at the latest Observations we are noticing that pressure is falling rapidly in southeast Virginia, this is an indication that the primary storm is now transferring it’s energy to the coast, this is also further south than the GFS and NAM were forecasting it. Both the GFS and NAM were forecasting 2-3 c 850 freezing line incorrectly, this has a major impact on snow fall in Southern New England and on the NH and Maine coast.

    We think the track is likely to be where we had it last week, south of Nantucket, this will be a significant coastal storm, will have to implant high wind warnings for coastal New England and a possible mariner storm warning later, expect Blizzard conditions in parts of New England on Thursday, not very confident in a change to rain along the Maine NH coast so will up the accumulations there later this afternoon.

  46. 12Z GFS has primary storm transfer energy to a coastal that sets up
    in Eastern VA, but inland just a bit, not on or off the coast. Then it tracks
    NE passing right over Cape Cod, but throwing the 850mb 0C lines to MA/NH border.

    As Hadi said, time to Nowcast.

  47. been watching wind direction from places like Trenton on wunder. for a bit. Winds there are more northery than easterly.

    2. Coastal, The northern edge of those radar echos are aloft. The precip is not
      reaching the ground as it evaporates (sublimates) in the dry air before reaching the ground.

    3. You can clearly see the r/s line on that radar. Draw that line up to us in NE and all of eastern MA and coastal ME gets rain.

      1. And if its already raining in coastal NJ, theres no way it snows here in eastern MA. I would love to jump on the “surprise” possibility with this storm, but even more, I hate getting my hopes up and then being dissappointed in the end 🙁

      2. Re: Precip ahead of the storm and rain/snow line – has the coastal low/storm formed sufficiently to draw any inferences from any precipitation shield encroachig NYC associated with the land low and/or drawing any meaningful conclusions on an existing r/s line projecting linearly into New England overnight? This is way beyond my weather capacity, asking for thoughts, not challenging anyone’s post/opinion.

      3. Just not necessarily so.

        For one thing it is colder up here, not only at the surface,
        but at mid-levels as well.

        For another, the storm will track NE, not due North.

        I’m not saying we don’t get rain, just that you can’t use
        that logic. 😀

  49. Henry Margusity Fan Club
    Odd Observation of the day. Mount Airy, NC wind gust to 57 mph followed by a change over to snow.

  51. GFS has that weekend storm ever so close, but i dont see that thing getting any closer than that. Running out of time for that to change

    1. Notice the HUGE sry slot. The energy is clearly transferring to the coast.
      The primary is about to die off. And as someone above stated, look at the convection and all of the radar echos. This is going to become a monster.

  53. Harvey tweeted this 5 minutes ago regarding R/S line tomorrow:

    @HarveyWCVB: By Thu. A.M. commute, most of Boston area raining..rain/snow line should be roughly from Berkshires to MA/NH border

    1. Yes, this would be consistent with this AM’s Model runs.
      We’re still watching to see if anything changes.

  54. If thermal profiles are already too warm, is it plausible for them to cool again once precip gets going? Some reports of mid to upper 30’s in the area already with winds now switching over to NNE after a period of northerly. Even if thing thing moves more south and east, if there is any easterly component to the winds at all, given the ocean temps, we will be rain very quickly and stay that way.

    1. First of all, as long as mid-levels are cold enough, mid-upper 30s
      does not preclude snow. And yes, if cold mid-levels and those surface temps,
      the lower levels would cool down to 32 almost immediately.

      NNE wind would be OK to keep snow. IF they go to NE, it gets questionable.
      IF it goes ENE, we’re DONE.

      Just my thoughts.

      Cheers

      1. Thanks for the insight OS. I want snow believe me, but i also dont want to be dissappointed. IF this thing ends up further S and E and colder, does that mean locations in northern NE and maine get less? It would make sense to me, further away from the heaviest precip, dry slotting? no?

        1. Yes, that would be correct. If the models are correct,
          we get rain, up North gets a dumping. If the system
          moved farther South and East, then up North would get less and we could potentially end up with more snow.

          We’re nowcasting. Just watching for changes from the
          model predictions to see if we can salvage anything at all.

          We’re pointing out anything we see that could possibly
          indicate a change. NONE of it means that it will just yet.

          Keep watching and hoping.

  56. Noontime Temp @ Nantucket 40
    11 am CST Temp @ Brownsville TX (southern tip of TX) 49
    11 am CST Temp @ Galveston TX 43
    11 am CST Temp @ Houston TX 40
    11 am CST Temp @ Dallas TX 26

  58. Pressures dropping rapidly along the east coast. If I’m not mistaken, looks as if energy is being transferred to the coast prematurely. The parent low is dying. Accumulations should end up closer to the coast. Too early to say what I’m thinking but changes could be coming

  59. This storm has snow inland rain for the coastal plain and coast, no matter how much we hope and pray for snow in the metro areas it’s not gonna happen with this event, I used to be like that but found out being disappointed afterwards was far more painful for me, possibilitys dont roll with me reality is the way to go but it is a weather blog so lets continue with every possibility to end up with rain,, anyways have a great day everyone,

    1. I will say alot of wasted cold air is coming after the storm, maybe the ponds will start freezing with any luck

    2. I was the same way, I would be disappointed when it did not snow. I do not believe there will be much snow from Worcester east.

      1. I’m with you TJ. I used to love Mark Rosenthal for this reason. He used to jack up the snowstorms and I loved his enthusiasm:)

        2. Alisonarod,

          Mark was great! He wasn’t the best meteorologist but always made storms bigger and better than they were and also would mention storms a couple days out that always made me get excited.

    2. Honestly, I hope they’re wrong with higher amounts in Boston if it’s eventually going over to all rain. A real pain in the back to clear away water-logged snow 🙁

      1. Very true but it would be fun to watch all the front end snow. I’m watching this energy on the coast being transferred. Will it happen fast enough? That’s the question. And then where does this energy go? It only takes a 75 mile shift to make a tremendous difference.

  62. Hi Charlie,

    Its not so much that we are hoping and praying that it stays all snow I think everyone’s accepted the fact its going to rain here but I think we just want to watch how things evolve and see if the models are off. I’m not speaking for anyone else here but I think its interesting and fun to watch the models and know that they could be forecasting a storm that has a good amount of surprises to it. The models may say its going to hit 50s on the coast and its going to rain but maybe the storm will snow longer on the front end temps will only get to 40s on thursday and the storm will track further south. Who knows.. I like to see how things plan out. Don’t get disappointed go with the flow.

    1. It sure does here as well. It’s the bone chilling cold that precedes snow. And the crystal type haze is staring to form over the snow. What fun to have this to track after Christmas.

  64. To:alisonarod,

    You are officially in charge of moving the storm further S & E and I will work on temperature drops. 🙂

    1. Sounds good to me Longshot. You can be Jackfrost. I already have something up my sleeve with the energy transfer that is occurring along the virginia coast line;)

    1. I’m with you. Energy transfer to the coast was much faster than expected.
      Also more East than originally forecast.

      Not to mention that the wind in our area is holding from the North to NE pretty much.

      Here is latest Blue Hill Obs:

      Last Updated: Dec 26 2012, 12:54 pm EST
      Wed, 26 Dec 2012 12:54:00 -0500
      Temperature: 32.0 °F (0.0 °C)
      Dewpoint: 23.0 °F (-5.0 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 69 %
      Wind: Northeast at 10.4 MPH (9 KT)

      Boston:

      Last Updated: Dec 26 2012, 12:54 pm EST
      Wed, 26 Dec 2012 12:54:00 -0500
      Weather: Overcast
      Temperature: 35.0 °F (1.7 °C)
      Dewpoint: 24.1 °F (-4.4 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 64 %
      Wind: Northeast at 10.4 MPH (9 KT)

      Norwood:

      Last Updated: Dec 26 2012, 12:53 pm EST
      Wed, 26 Dec 2012 12:53:00 -0500
      Weather: Overcast
      Temperature: 35.0 °F (1.7 °C)
      Dewpoint: 24.1 °F (-4.4 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 64 %
      Wind: Northeast at 5.8 MPH (5 KT)

      Plymouth:

      Last Updated: Dec 26 2012, 12:52 pm EST
      Wed, 26 Dec 2012 12:52:00 -0500
      Weather: Overcast
      Temperature: 37.0 °F (2.8 °C)
      Dewpoint: 26.1 °F (-3.3 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 65 %
      Wind: Northeast at 6.9 MPH (6 KT)

      AND a very, very BAD sign, Worcester:

      Last Updated: Dec 26 2012, 12:54 pm EST
      Wed, 26 Dec 2012 12:54:00 -0500
      Weather: Fair
      Temperature: 30.0 °F (-1.1 °C)
      Dewpoint: 19.0 °F (-7.2 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 64 %
      Wind: East at 10.4 MPH (9 KT)

      Please note the EAST wind at the Worcester Airport, 1000 feet in altitude, suggesting that just above the surface, the winds are EAST. If there is a low
      level Easterly Jet, we can forget about it.

    1. Nice. Thanks Coastal. pretty much confirms what Hadi had been saying all
      along for this event.

      Let’s see how it translates up here.

  67. Well, the 12Z Euro is in. Still tracks this thing over the Cape with a couple inches
    of front end in Boston then changeover to rain. Same with Canadian.
    The UKMET keeps the snow around until about 7AM on Thursday.

    Could be a Wild night, even with a changeover.

    This storm is energized.

    OH and while we are at it, this weekends storm looks to be a BIGGIE, although
    12Z Euro has it grazing us with low qpfs with the big qpfs just off shore.
    Wouldn’t take much to get that in here.

    1. One thing i worry is if this current storm intensifies too much and is stronger than depicted on the models, hits the block over eastern canada and stalls out, that will force the weekend storm further OTS. But i agree, that storm really blows up and if we can get into its heavy precip, watch out. GFS ensemble mean gives eastern MA, Cape and Islands 2 to as much as 6″ with generous ratios

  68. This is what I LOVE!!! Lets get some excitement around here and come on cold air hang tight… No icing though BAD!

  71. Major cities south of here; DC, Baltimore, Philly – very brief snow/mix then quickly to rain and will stay that way. One of the things we were nowcasting was watching what happened in those cities, if transfer of energy was to be further east those cities would have had more snow…

    1. The energy was transferring as the storm approached those areas. Being that we are further north, it stays snow here much longer. It’s not only important when energy transfers. It’s where this new energy “tracks” that is vital. I don’t like how the 12z euro still tracks this over the cape. Not a good track for snow east of 495. That link sent by Coastal is very encouraging however.

      1. Thanks alisonarod. I like your contribution to the blog 🙂 I wonder if the 12 EURO was initialized with the changes we are seeing in this system or if the initalization was done before things started getting interesting. That may explain very little change in its output from the last few runs

  73. We have a clear definition in the clouds here, as u look south u can see a clear definition in cloud structure

  74. I think precip gets here sooner than forecasted and changes over to rain later than forecasted. That could tack on a couple of inches of unanticipated snows.

  75. Call me wacked, but I see a lot of Eastward movement on this animated
    Nexrad Radar loop. Need to keep watching this as it approaches our area:

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    1. That’s the precip shield. But it’s the direction that the center of circulation is going that is important.

  76. At 2pm, eastern parts of NC, as well as Norfolk, VA are reporting SE or S winds, so that tells me that the new low is just west of those locations.

    1. I think that matches up well with the 12z GFS and its 12 hr panel, which has the new low just north and west of Norfolk, VA. I would say the new low is forming in about the concensus spots the models have been projecting.

  78. Latest Boston Obs. temp down a degree!

    34.0 °F
    Last Updated: Dec 26 2012, 1:54 pm EST
    Wed, 26 Dec 2012 13:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Overcast
    Temperature: 34.0 °F (1.1 °C)
    Dewpoint: 24.1 °F (-4.4 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 67 %
    Wind: Northeast at 12.7 MPH (11 KT)
    Wind Chill: 25 F (-4 C)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1023.8 mb
    Altimeter: 30.24 in Hg
    btw, that NE wind is at 030 Degrees!!! 😀 😀 😀

    AND GOOD NEWS:

    Worcester. (I wonder IF the previous OBS was in error???)

    Last Updated: Dec 26 2012, 1:54 pm EST
    Wed, 26 Dec 2012 13:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Fair
    Temperature: 30.0 °F (-1.1 °C)
    Dewpoint: 19.0 °F (-7.2 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 64 %
    Wind: Northeast at 10.4 MPH (9 KT)
    Wind Chill: 21 F (-6 C)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1022.8 mb
    Altimeter: 30.16 in Hg

    Hartford, CT 30F, wind at 010 Degrees.
    Westerly, RI 36F, Wind at 060 Degrees.
    Nantucket, MA, 39F, Wind at 060 Degrees.

    Hmmm

    Is this suggestive of a coastal front setting somewhere between Boston and South Shore????

  79. Now with the energy transfer have to look which way the low pressure center tracks. Does it hug the coast or does it move a little further over the water. 25-50 miles in either direction will make a difference.

    1. I think now it depends on the models accurately forecasting the strength and placement of the high pressure to the north. I think i read this high is stronger than depicted? Might make it harder for storm to move more northerly as the models have been showing.

  80. Don’t know if this means anything up here but NYC now under a winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches of snow.

  83. Regarding a certain FB weather site mentioned above…

    Confidence? Not really. More like arrogance. If you have any ounce of professionalism you don’t trash your fellow forecasters quite like that.

    There is also a difference between forecasting what you want to happen and what decent meteorological analysis would indicate will happen.

    I am a snow lover, but if I don’t see a big storm for my area in the cards I’m not going to try to make it happen by forecasting it.

    That said, there are no changes to my forecast posted above.

    Accumulations I expect now range from a slushy coating at Logan to a slushy inch immediate suburbs to 3-6 inches Merrimack Valley and 6-10 inches with locally heavier in higher elevations from north central MA into southwestern NH. Ski areas make out great. 🙂

    1. You beat me to it. I was just going to post a loop.

      Btw, isn’t it cool the way this depicts the low stratus clouds
      moving in from the NE off of the ocean as the higher level clouds
      move in from the SW.

      Don’t see this too often.

      1. Yes, I noticed that. I didn’t realize that it was that uncommon. I like looking at the satellite loops – sometimes when they are without the infrared and colors I can get a better idea of what’s going on. That’s just my opinion.

  87. Just got an email from a dxer friend of mine in central NJ (about 10 miles south of Neshanic Station) and he said it’s snowing heavily there right now with a temp right around 32.

            1. You’re looking at the highest level stuff, which is fanning more to the east in the upper winds, set up a bit like the outflow above a tropical, due to the strong parent low in the Ohio Valley.

              1. Understood. So we’re seeing Eastward movement, but the whole package is moving northward. The end result is that
                the changeover will move from Southeast to Northwest.

                Many thanks

  90. By early this evening NYC should be in the rain.
    Watch out for some gusty winds also with this storm system. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are some power outages across SNE.

    1. Irene, Sandy and the Nor’easter has taken down the weak tree’s and limbs. I would be surprise if there were more than 50 power outages.

  91. Just drove to wellesley and back and saw three fairly large groups of what appeared to be Canadian geese heading N/NE. Away from storm? An unusual direction for this time of year

    1. Geese will fly any direction when they are in an organizing pattern. I see a lot of small flocks heading north and northeast over my area during this time of year. Once they are oriented they will turn southward.

  92. TK, any thoughts on the weekend storm? I know models have been pretty consistent keeping it offshore but man is it close. Looks like it will be a powerful storm. Time is running out for things to change.

    1. I’m leaning OTS with a graze. Still have to watch it. Looks like the SE ridge tries to come back, flattens the flow up just enough to propel that system more to the east.

      Euro dumps a pure arctic airmass into New England on New Years Day.

      2. TK how will the wind be? Sister in law is going to try to fly in on Sunday from Atlanta. She postponed because of sandy

  93. Doppler radar already picking up snow in westsouthwestern CT and SE MA which looks like it is turning to mix or ice in SE MA.

    1. You can see the northeastern edge of that fighting the dry air. The darker colors are where it’s reaching the ground and for us that represents our best shot of accumulation around Boston later this evening before it’s just too warm to sustain it.

      1. Right. I think the problem we will be seeing here in eastern mass is that the snow will be falling at such a intense rate it will cause friction between the snow flakes, thus elevating the temp in lower atmosphere.

  95. Stratus layer coming in from the due east. Step one in warming the boundary layer and air near the surface to prevent big snow anywhere near the coast in this one.

    1. I don’t think anyone on the coast is wishing for big snow but more like a snow. Anything more than 3.5″

  96. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
    TRENDS. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE GFS AS THE NAM SEEMS TO INITIALIZEPOORLY.
    WITH THE COLDER SOLUTION IN PLACE SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED
    SOMEWHAT AND LOOKING AT EXPANDING HEADLINES.

  97. This is a question for TK or anyone who knows the answer. What do you use as a benchmark to determine wether or not a forecast “verifies.” With forecasts seem to change moment to moment almost ending up as “now casting” how does this work? Just curious. Thanks

    1. This will vary from person to person. For me, I try to verify anything I can put solid #’s on, usually 48 hours or sooner from the event. If I hit a high temp 5 days in advance it really doesn’t do much to know how many times I do that. I’d rather be getting it more accurate when I can actually spell out details and be confident. When using forecasting games in colleges, verifications tend to go out only to about 3 days, though some schools play “extended forecast games”. I guess there really is no solid defined answer for this question.

      1. There’s no doubt a trough in there but as for a defined closed-off low which would be a secondary with ZERO enhanced clouds over it? I think somebody skipped out on SAT&RAD class in college. 🙂

    3. Of course its right. They have a tv station that is strictly for the weather. They are The Weather Channel.

        1. The pressure would be falling there anyway because of the strong parent low in the Ohio Valley moving east northeastward. You want to see a rapid pressure fall with a rise at stations just to the west of there (for a feature with an eastward component to its forward motion) to indicate a newly developing surface low.

      1. Slightly amusing that where they had their new storm centered the sky was partly sunny with a south southwest wind. 🙂

    1. That precip gets Heavy in a hurry. How long does it stay snow is the big question. Sure didn’t stay snow for very long in NYC.

      Unless something very weird happens, the forecast “looks” to verify.

  103. They said 12 euro came in much colder for Maine keeping all Maine snow. Point click forecast has us at 2-4 tonight 8-12 tomorrow and 1-3 tomorrow night. Lets Hope Tom is not right with his 3.6 otherwise I going to come down there and you know what 🙂

  104. Some 4PM Obs:
    T D Wind
    Worcester: 29 14 060
    Boston: 35 26 060
    Blue Hill: 33 24 070
    N. Smithfield RI 34 25 070
    Nantucket 38 30 070
    Hartford 31 17 360
    Block IS 39 28 080
    Lawrence 33 24 030

    Now the winds are getting in line. Sure does NOT look like the snow will last
    too long in the coastal regions. Although I’m somewhat surprised that Logan
    is holding in at 35F with the wind at 060 degrees which is exactly at ENE.
    I would have expected the temp to be at least 40F. With intense snow coming down,
    it shouldn’t go up much. So it looks like it will still be the mid-level warming that
    will force the changeover?

    We’ll see how it plays out.

    1. 4PM obs from NYC:

      REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
      400 PM EST WED DEC 26 2012

      NOTE: “FAIR” INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
      SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

      NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-262200-
      NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA

      CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
      CENTRAL PARK SNOW 32 31 96 E22G35 29.99F VSB 1/2 WCI 19
      LAGUARDIA APRT LGT SNOW 34 31 88 NE31G38 29.98F FOG WCI 20
      KENNEDY INTL SLEET 36 32 85 NE22G29 29.97F WCI 25
      NEWARK/LIBERTY LGTSLEET 33 32 96 NE18G28 29.96F VSB 1/2 WCI 22
      TETERBORO SLEET 32 30 93 NE15G22 29.96F VSB 1/2 WCI 22
      WHITE PLAINS LGT SNOW 30 26 85 NE14G23 30.01F VSB 1 WCI 19

  107. If your a snow lover this is just aggravating, I don’t think the i95 corridor Gets more than a strong coating and it falls overnight so when we wake up its gone 🙁

  108. Westborough, where I live, is now forecasted to get 6-8 instead of 4-6 and we’ve been upgraded from a WWA to a WSW.

    1. Oh wow. Ill have to Check framingham. I was thinking not much problem for my husband to get to work in the morning. But he is heading east so that’s good

          1. No way it maintains that rate for that long. I’m not convinced it stays all snow there either. Maybe a foot in northern portions of the county at best.

  110. I have no doubts seeing the inland dewpoints, that when the precip starts, it’s going to be heavy snow for a few hrs and its going to look like a blizzard. Quick 1-2 inches around 495, 2-3 around Worcester, but then………

    Look at DC and Philly, 39F and 37F respectively. Watch those 2 obs the next few hrs, think they’ll get into the low40s. Getting that idea of relative north even NW of the low track, I’d expect Worcester by sunrise will be 36F with rain and the rain/snow line will have retreated halfway between Manchester and Concord, NH. Further east, Portland, ME around sunrise will be 34F or 35F with rain after a few inches of snow.

    Aright, at my I laws 🙂 Will check in later tonight. Enjoy the now casting !!

  114. ECMWF/GGEM/GFS all take the weekend storm outside the 40/70 benchmark. Updated Taunton discussion calling for up to 2″ of snow accumulation south of the Pike Sat night based on current model QPF forecasts.

    2. I’ll be ripped if we dont get anything from that one either. I’m really counting on that storm to deliver southern and eastern portions its first real snowfall of the season. 12Z EURO and GFS ensembles showed up to 4″ on the Cape. Want to see what the models do once the energy from that system arrive on the west coast.

  115. Dry slot is going to temper our totals here in CNY. I think we’ll get a quick hard hitting 8-10″ between now and 2AM and then get cut off with spotty lighter snows through tomorrow and a few additional inches. Snow has just started.

    NWS Albany now calling for up to 20″ in the southern Adirondacks and Green mountains of VT.

    Hadi, you are going to get crushed. I’m now thinking closer to 18″ for your area with the colder solution and higher snow ratios. Lots of QPF and no changeover!!

  117. i do not understand the winter storm warning for my area. im in a winter storm warning but the highest amount of snow that i see is 3 inches being possible.

    1. They are not helping their cause by extending that thing to the southeast.

      The dry slot is also going to be a player earlier than many expect.

  118. Looks like inside and along rt. 128 down to rt. 24 south and east will be the r/s line as precip breaks out.

  119. Mark getting ready for it!!! No changeover and tons of QPF and high ratios. I am banking on about 15-20. We shall see.

  121. BZ’s #’s look good for eastern MA but i think they are a bit high for worcester. I cant believe im saying this, but i think Ch 7 #’s are spot on. We shall see!

  125. Super crazy day today. Can someone please get me up to date on two things. How many inches for Boston before the rain, and than down on the south shore same thing.

      1. Not Boston right. 1_3 tonight before the rain. Where in Quincy do you live. My dad lives at the falls. Still raining in Quincy. Boston is getting snow right. I’m gathering my things now. Thanks.

        2. Boston probably gets a quick burst and then to rain. I don’t think you will have to worry about being called in. Less than an 1inch. Trust me I wish it was alot more.

  126. Most of the weather stations around here are reporting ENE winds occasionally out of the North.

    Very light snow now. Expect that wall to come in about an hour or so.

  127. NEWW continues to say plowable for Boston. Not bashing, just not agreeing. The western side of the city may see a burst heavy enough to cover the ground and require some treatment for a short while, but later tonight it’s just too warm and wet and it’s all gone.

    1. TK I think it must have been slippery last night or we treat roads in this area in an abundance of caution. There was tons of sand in Sudbury and framingham roads were literally white from salt. Not sure why they needed so much but there should be enough left over for tonight 😀

  129. I don’t think Boston itself or Logan will get much if any, in my humble opinion would be a waste of time, I really think this is going to be very disappointing for boston, good luck

          1. Yea its very light snizzle. I have a feeling when the heavy stuff comes in soon the intensity of the precip will cause it to fall as snow for a short time, then over to rain for the duration.

      2. Must be a line in there somewhere north to south. Not at all wet here. And has been snowing at least 45 minutes. Probably more since all surfaces had a dusting when my grandson made the announcement about 45 minutes ago. A junior met in training 🙂

  131. some light snow falling here in billerica temperatue is right around 32 degrees. also from salem mass to plymouth ocean effect snow and rain showers are currently west to the 495 belt . this is probably what many across the are inside of 495 is seeing currently. the main precipitation is still about an hour away

    1. should have said half hour to 1 hour it should change to all rain inside of 495 by 3 am and all of eastern mass and areas south of the pike by day break.

  133. Most of what is reaching the ground in Boston proper is ocean-effect. You can see the tiny cellular echoes moving west northwestward off the ocean. This motion is also indicative of ocean warming coming in sooner at the shore. The wind just off the ground is not northeast.

  140. We had light snow for 30 or 40 minutes in Sherborn, now we have nothing. I think the ocean effect was Act I, the snow wall will be Act II and the wind/rain will be the 3rd and final act. Perhaps we get some backside flurries for an encore.

  142. More wet here now eliminating much of the snow dusting. Temp up to 33.5 from 31.2. And wind from calm to a few mph with a gust to 12 and direction is all over the compass.

  143. Logan Airport wind east 23 gust to 30, temp 38. That is not what you want to see if you want snow anywhere near the coast with this storm track.

  144. It’s raining here again, I think that’s pretty much sums up this storm, never got accumulation, lookout that line is moving north and west from here 🙂

  145. This was not a good track for areas at or near the coast. A track like this brings in milder air from off the ocean. The interior areas of SNE could get a nice snowfall before the change to rain.

  148. I guess I can only hope that the weekend storm comes a little closer to give us south shore folks a little snow. Winds seem to be picking up here in Plymouth and it was a chilly rain when I ran out to the store about an hour ago.

    1. Sue, I think areas that got the least snow out of this one, or no snow, will get the most from the weekend storm. Right now it doesnt look like a lot, but maybe a couple inches. Keeping my fingers crossed

      1. Track for the weekend storm looks to take it just outside of the benchmark. If could trend back towards the west
        a little bit things could get very interesting around here this weekend.

  149. Rain area looks to becoming onshore at the coasts of CT, RI, and MA. The storm to me is behaving itself so far.

    1. That coastal front I think is just to your west. Westborough is 30 and reporting light snow at the moment.

      1. the heavy precip. is trying to beat back that marine air with that snow mixing in. Too bad the ocean is so warm.

  155. Shave a few inches of the NAM and then that will be the total.
    Watching TWC and I see up in Maine where you are Hadi they have at action level on their threat level index

  156. 37F departing Boston on car truck, dropped to 35F when we hit the heavy precip going south on Rte. 3. Moderate rain mixed with some wet snow flakes. Wind very strong in Marshfield.

    1. Charlie, was just gonna ask u what it was doing by u. Radar shows all snow west of me into the attleboros and north through plainville and wrentham. Was curious if it was actually snowing there.

  160. Not much too add to TK’s excellent forecast and analysis. His quicker onset of dry slot issues was an awesome pick up!

    Strong easterly low level flow and its associated downsloping is going to conspire to create a shadowing effect which will dial back the intensity and subsequent accumulations in valley locations such as the Merrimack valley and Connecticut river valley.

    In general until you get north and west of RT 2, accumulations will not start to come close to NWS forecasted amounts. In those areas 8 plus inches is possible. Otherwise much lighter amounts. Nothing in the immediate Boston area and nearby coastal locations. Less than 2″ 128-495. 2-3″ 128-495 metro west area that is north of the MA Pike. No accumulation south and east of the I-95 /495 interchange. 3-5″ I-495 west & Merrimack Valley. Locally higher amounts in favored high grounds.

  161. It has been raining here in Dorchester since the beginning…nothing frozen has fallen. Wind is howling…CURSE YOU EAST WIND!!! 🙁

    TK, will Boston see ANY significant snow between now and March? Yes, I am already starting to wonder especially with the OTS scenario for this weekend becoming commonplace around here for the rest of the winter.

    1. Hang in there Philip ! Dont get discouraged based off of this event. It never had a chance in the Boston area.

  164. a mix of snow,sleet and rain here in my area of town while the other side of town including the center has coatings to one inch of snow. usually its the other way around with my side getting mroe wintry precipitation as we are shielded from an east wind. by billerica being a hill. Billerica is a perfect example how a few miles can change what precipitation you have and how a few feet can change what you get. 🙁

  165. Atop the hill here in Woburn we are mostly rain, mixed with wet snow at times. No accumulation, ground wet. Temp 37, wind east 10-15 MPH.

  167. Based on the latest radar, it is all rain inside 495 and yet the entire state of RI is blanketed with snow. Framingham rain and Providence snow?…never seen anything like it that I can recall.

  168. Peaking at the 10 pm obs ……

    Even Worcester, which by obs and looking at a webcam is getting a good shot of snow, is up to 31F. Hartford, CT is up to 34F and while the echos look good on radar, its visibility has jumped to 2.5 miles, which makes me think a change to rain is in progress.

    Looking to see Atlantic City’s ob at 10 pm, as it was in the low to mid 50s last hour. NYC was nearing 40F. I think some southern New England inland residents are going to be surprised by the mild temps and how the snow disappeared overnight when they wake up in the morning.

      1. Nice! Temp looks like it came down some? If Charlie is in Wrentham, which if im not mistaken, is usually a bit colder than NA in these storms. Nothing normal about storms lately though so nothing would surprise me.

  173. Snowing at the rate of 2 inches per hour in central ny. We have 4 inches so far but a narrow north/south oriented dry slot is heading due north right at us and is going to really kill any big snow totals here I’m afraid. Areas just to our east and west should see a foot plus.

    Just heard from friends back in northern CT. We got a quick 3-4″ in Coventry but have now gone over to heavy rain.

  175. UGH, 00Z GFS, weekend storm still offshore. For once the models are consistent on something…why now?? One that note, those who have snow, enjoy! Who knows, maybe we’ll wake up to a surprise

    1. Harvey just said some signs of frigid air Tues and Wed next week. He had a high of 19 on Tuesday and 24 on Wednesday.

  176. Well, the dog walk was pretty if you like mush, gush and slush. About an inch of wet cement out there, rain would be better for the limbs at this point. Nice to walk around without a flashlight, the snow reflects light very well.

    1. Gotta love those last of the night dog walks. Hoping mine waits until the heavy rain is gone tomorrow morning for her first walk of the am!

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