Transition Complete

129 Comments

2:33AM

The series of storms that came through this week has, as expected, completed the transition from the mild pattern of December to what will be a colder, fairly dry pattern heading into the first month of 2013.

Quick review of the storm that just ended: A few surprises, especially the rain hanging tough at the coast and even getting inland a bit first over southeastern MA then even along the North Shore of MA for a while. Cold air made it back to Cape Cod before the North Shore, due to the orientation of the rapidly deepening low pressure area just off Cape Cod. Ocean water temperatures running 4 to 5 degrees above normal was the main reason for the rain/snow line being stubborn, but also the low pressure center itself was a touch further north than expected and this changed the positioning just enough to throw the forecast off in a very small area, but this had significant impact since the coast is a high population area. In most areas, amounts were generally what was expected. I am glad I did up the totals from my original estimates. Those were underdone in most locations. A bit of last minute forecasting is sometimes very necessary, especially with quickly changing conditions, i.e., a rapidly deepening storm.

Now, onto looking at the next several days. This update will go through Saturday. This evening a new blog will be posted that will look through next Sunday. It looks like a largely cold/dry pattern this week. Though the timing may change, look for weak systems to produce minor snow shower threats about Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Blowing snow at times.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-15 inland cold spots to lower 20s across coastal areas. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly cloudy. Lows 23-28. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-38. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 14. High 27.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 16. High 30.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 26.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 10. High 30.

129 thoughts on “Transition Complete”

  1. Thanks TK. This storm was special, not quite Celtics world title in 2008, but the drought of winter snow storms since 2011 made this one extra sweet – especially with the upward revions as she was bearing down on us.

    I spent a good part of yesterday in the hospital after hurting my back and this storm/blog kept my sanity. A great way to follow a storm real-time.

    I hope everyone enjoys the winter wonderland today!

    5. Sorry to hear, we really find out how much we use our back when its injured. Hope the discomfort subsides soon !

    6. Thanks for the well wishes everyone, I am not feeling any pain today (or the tip of my nose) – the meds block pain better than an entrenched coastal front on snow. The upside is I got out of clean-up, unfortunately I can’t sled with the kids. Good day to watch the wind blow snow off the trees and watch the Pats!
      With a little ‘Luck’ we will clinch a bye.

  2. TK, thank you. What a welcome yet strange event. Sometimes even nowcasting isn’t so easy.

    As I mentioned at the end of the last, I took a 2 am walk and it’s beautiful out there! Nice to look at before the snow gets dirty.

  3. I really discussing this storm with everyone. The comments are so knowledgeable and interesting to read. Thanks again everyone!

  5. Wind Advisory up until 4 am tomorrow. Foxboro forecast to start at 28 degrees and drop to 24 by end of game, but wind chill make it feel between 5-10 degrees.

    1. Could happen. I’m a bit above that for now. Low temps for a large area with snowcover is always tricky.

  9. OK, a timely AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Boston’s greatest snow depth on record occurred on:

    A. February 27, 1969
    B. February 7, 1978
    C. January 10, 1996
    D. April 1, 1997

    Answer later today.

      1. The snow was really deep in 3 of those. It is clearly NOT D.

        IF I remember correctly, I was surprised when it was C.

        So C. is my vote.

    1. I haven’t been out yet. Will do some shoveling right after lunch.
      That could be correct. But my eye from inside says about 3 1/2.
      I’ll measure when I go out.

      Btw, we only lost an inch to perhaps no more than 2 inches while it
      was raining. Looks like we just we not destined to get that much.
      Never came down all that hard here for any period of time. Just briefly.

  13. Thanks TK !! Great job as always !!!!!

    About 2 inches of snow, of which the bottom 1 and 1/2 inches is waterlogged cement and the top half inch is a more powdery snow. Trees, sides of houses etc are pasted white. Looks great with the brightening dawn.

  14. Thanks TK.

    Ended at 8.5″ here. Should be easier to move than earlier in the week. Good luck with that concrete Tom.

    GFS is flat-lined.

    Enjoy this cause looks like we’re going to be waiting a while.

  18. Hopefully this cold get the ocean cool enough not to negatively influence our weather. Get us ready for late Jan and Feb.

  19. It really is very pretty out. And it’s good that the cold temps. will be around to keep the snow around. I just hope the cold temps. hang around for the next storm so that those who didn’t get any or enough snow will be able to enjoy the next storm. And, as always, apologies to those who don’t like the snow. I always figure – let the winter be cold and snowy so when Spring begins and everything turns green and it gets warm out, we will be able to enjoy it that much more! 🙂

  21. Thank you TK and the rest of the crew for your input during the storm. I feel like it is the day after Christmas…..all the excitement leading up to the event and now it is over. Hurry up Vicki, aka Mother Nature, get those snow socks working their magic!

  23. Thank you to everyone here. It was tons of fun being here both leading up to the storm and during the storm

  24. Officially 2.6 at Logan. We had Matt at 2, Acemaster at 2.1, Tom at 3.2 Vicki at 2.9! Looks like you are the closest Vicki!

    For Worcester looks like 9.3 may be the final total. No one had Worcester getting that much. Retrac had 8 and Tjammer was closest with 8.1!

    Sill waiting for the final total from Providence.

    1. It was my scientific method of taking grands birthday and sticking a decimal in the middle Heheh. That coupled (sort of) with my feeling the ocean temp would play a factor.

  25. Thank you, TK, as always, for your forecasts.

    It does look pretty out there! Yes, it’s time to clean up, but that’s OK. I enjoy winter cleanups, actually.

    This was a bizarre storm for late December. I’ve seen a few of these wet, gloppy nor’easters in late December in my 48 years but not many. Walking with a friend in Cambridge last night we both said `doesn’t it feel like a March storm.’ Some of the wettest snow and largest flakes I’ve ever seen in a December snow event. I do think the anomalous ocean temperature had something to do with it. The temperature outside hovered around freezing, but was above it along the coastline for much of the storm.

  28. can not really tell how much because of the wind last night. some areas measuring any where from 6 to 8 inches. by weather platform says 7.5. and with the cold going to be hanging around for a bit. it will probably stay for a while even if you only have 3 inches..
    have fun. im going to be shoveling the driveway and then makeing the sleeding hill.:D
    watching the pats game with my aunt Linda and she is bringing the little guy so i want my hill to be made by the time she gets here 😀

    1. Just not for jan 12and13. We are spending a night in Harvard square and I’m hoping we can spend the weekend waking around. Hmmmmm or maybe a snowstorm would make it fun.

  30. Its like a winter wonderland with 6 inches of powdry snow which was a lot easier to move than the 4 inches of cement snow on Thursday morning. With the temps this week this snow won’t be going anywhere.
    I will give The Almanac credit for predicting this storm. Lets see if the heavy precipitation between the 8th-11th of January happens as well as their 6 plus inches prediction between the 20th-23rd of January.

  31. It’s so weird that my sil has lived in sne since Feb 2011 and hasn’t experienced a New England snowstorm yet, the family always asked her how do you like the winters there and she has to say she hasn’t seen a snow event any bigger than what she would experience in tx, and now she is down here visiting and it snows there, so weird, for her she always says when they ask winters really arnt that bad, anyways hope everyone’s enjoying the snow

  32. Shoveling out is done. Luckily we share a large driveway with my next door neighbor as the house they live in used to be the barn for this one way back in the old days. He has a snowblower and did the main part, leaving just one section and a couple walks and stairways.

    Sledding excursion was fun but ground blizzard a couple times as the wind came across the field at the top of the hill. One thing it does do is blow fresh powder across the hill so there is always a new supply there. This can go on for days at a time.

    On the field at the bottom of the hill (it’s a combo soccer/football field) a fairly large snow devil formed and moved across it from NW to SE, until it reached the woods when it broke up in the trees. Fascinating to watch. Wish I had it on video. It was about 25 feet wide at the base and about 50 feet tall!

    1. I would have loved to see the snow devil. I haven’t seen one one since my youth

      TK I sighed when you said the house beside yours used to be the barn to your home. My dream has always been to live in an antique home – one where you can feel the history in the walls. And a barn converted to a home is awesome

      1. They’ve since added a section to the house so it’s pretty much full sized now. My house is a 2 family, but was actually built as a single family home originally. Many modifications were made. The mayor of the city once lived in this house. My parents bought it in 1954. It was constructed about 1881. My father remodeled it pretty much by himself over a decade or so in the late 1970s to late 1980s, inside and out. This house has been through several hurricanes, and also survived a fairly close pass from an F1 tornado on 10-25-1925, which passed just north of here.

  33. We lost power here for 12 hours. From 1am to 1pm. We got 2.5″ last night. No plows. We lost all our food in the fridge. No serious snow insight so I think we will make it to 24 months without a 3.5″ or greater snowfall.

    1. Ugh. You didn’t put the food outside in a cooler? I also make sure I have bags of ice made up in the freezer. 12 hours your freezer should be fine though

      1. If we had we wouldn’t of lost it. We had to leave the house at 7am this morning and had no time. I did not think it was going to be out this long. Only 15 house were out.

  34. Just in from Shoveling. Measured 5.0 Inches here in JP, a bit more than it appeared
    from inside. Car still had an inch+ of Crust on the roof and hood. It can stay there!

    Not what I wanted or expected, but it sure looks nice out there and I think there is
    a definite sense that it is truly Winter. 😀

  37. With the water temps so warm these days, is it going to take a storm to pass well east of Georges Bank for Boston to get all snow? SHEESH! At least last winter, the one “snowstorm” Boston did get, such as it was, there were no coastal front issues. A nice “workmans” snow I might add IIRC.

    I just hope that yesterday’s storm (2.6″) isn’t going to be Boston’s highlight of the 2012-2013 winter…water temps +5 above. 🙁

    Also to add insult to injury, even parts of the Cape got more than Logan…UGH! 🙁

        1. They give it away a couple of ways. If I get detailed here, they may catch on and shift tactics. 😉

    4. Good for you. The idiots were truly out on BZ. On person was ticked at BZ because she or he hadnt had snow in too long.

      1. There is a person who I have “talked” to on Keller a few times. Seems very nice and levelheaded. She was on BZ yesterday and seemed interested in weather. She has a name in Japanese. Just in case she shows up. The name means Michiru (mee-chee-ru), which is Japanese for “sea ruler”. I was tempted to ask of she was interested in here but wouldn’t without asking and also don’t know how to ask

        1. I have a feeling she may know about it already. But if you want to that is fine. I’d wait until a quiet period of weather (coming up) so it’s less likely that it spurs the 2 main trolls that are out there.

  39. TK, given yesterday’s bust (snow-rain-snow) along the immediate shoreline, will you have to account more for coastal fronts in future forecasts regardless of storm track and climatology, at least for this winter?

    If we could only get those water temps to really chill down….

    1. I think as we move forward the ocean temps should start to cool off. I think if we can have a couple of weeks of some good cold this will for sure change.

    2. It was only a partial bust. I had the rain/snow line right in terms of it being on the South Shore and over the Cape (maybe just a TOUCH further west than I envisioned). What I missed was how long it stayed in place and also its appearance on the North Shore.

      I really think the position of the low center at the start of bomb-out had alot to do with it. Need to watch for that and obviously pay closer attention to ocean temps. 🙂

  40. I think I had something like 9.4 for Providence, that might be pretty close as well… I measured about 7 here in Andover this morning, not official but not far off from my 6″ prediction. If not for the more prominent rain on the coast, would have been some good guesses!

    Just got back from the sledding hill in North Reading with the boys, a little gusty and chilly but better than anything we had last year. Didn’t sled myself as I tweaked my back a bit on Friday down in Rockport. We were doing some Geocaches, and one was was way out on the end of the breakwater at the end of Bearskin Neck. Tripped on the way back in over the rocks. At least I was able to get the boys to do most of the shoveling!

  42. 2 ret tailed hawks and a marsh hawk. huge bird. got a few pics of them in the snow and i post them on facebook. 🙂

        2. You can post it on facbook and then on facebook view the image and copy the link and past it here. No problem.
          Works like a champ.

  43. In spite of not getting much snow as the surrounding areas, looking into my backyard and others beyond everything looks very serene and peaceful with the fresh new snow cover clinging to trees looking much deeper than it really is. If it wasn’t for the ice underneath, it would have been even easier to shovel. Some snow is better than none, I guess. 🙂

    I hope Boston can get a fluffy snow at some point. I suspect though that even the places that got all snow, it was wet and heavy.

  44. Here is an interesting comment from Harvey Leonard.

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB

    I do believe that the ocean water temps. being so far above average, is due, at least in part, to climate change

        1. Btw, I have NEVER seen the Ocean this Warm at this
          time of year, Never. Not saying it hasn’t been, just that I haven’t seen it OR don’t recall seeing it.

          1. Well that Georges Bank Buoy is reporting around 65F and I think that its indicative of some warm eddys from the Gulf Stream being further north than normal.

            If there could be a cold arctic high sitting north of Maine, I’d like to see what the interaction in a benchmark low track might be between the marine layer that would be milder than normal and very cold air from the arctic high.

            1. It’s warmer now than last year at this time. It has to do with ocean currents. This is something often not taken into account.

      2. No I do not. We’ve had warm ocean temps before. We had a very nice presentation one time at one of the weather conferences about the fact everybody forgets that ocean currents, which are also cyclical, impact water temperatures throughout the ocean but also climate. Sorry Harvey, you’re incorrect on this one. … Maybe I’d buy it if the water temps were 4-5 above normal on a regular basis, but they are not. Simple fact.

  45. Going to be Very Chilly in Foxboro. About 29 there now and going down.

    TEXANS LOSE!!! 😀 😀 😀 😀

    Beat Miami and we get a bye! GO PATS!!! Keep Gronk OUT of this game, please.

      1. I watched just part of it. Btw, I just read that Gronk is ACTIVE
        for today’s game. I hope they keep him out, unless they desperately need him to win for the bye.

        1. Yes, another 2 weeks would be great, but BB will likely have in him. I missed their first series, so do not know if he was in or not.

  46. Speaking of global warming 🙂 , I know it will change but the 240 hr 12z EURO’s 850 mb temps are bewildering. 8c over New England, 10 to 14C across the south. That would be unbelievable.

    1. I am not surprised…the latest CPC is calling for well above normal temps through mid-January…and wetter too.

  48. Just curious…what would a #2 seed do for the Pats? Is there really that much of a difference between a #2 and #3?

    I still would have rather BB just try for the field goal…in spite of the wind. Points are points IMO. We will see.

    1. Huge difference ….

      # 2 seed = no game next weekend, home game the following weekend and only need 2 wins to go to Super Bowl.

      # 3 seed = home game next weekend, road game most likely the next weekend and need 3 wins, probably 2 of them on the road to go to the Super Bowl.

  51. I asked a question last night but didnt see an answer and apologize of I miss it. I was not surprised with the rain as far inland as it was since I knew it was far inland – roughly 15 min in from shore – on SW RI coast. If there were other factors at play here other than high ocean temps, would those same factors have created the same effect on SW RI coast?

    Also water temp in scituate last New Year’s Day was 46. Tom do you know what scituate is now. I can’t find the site on my iPad that shows bouy temps

    2. I found the water temps. Atlantic is a touch colder this year than last I don’t know scituate. Am assuming if Boston is the same scituate is also

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