Benign To Begin

178 Comments

9:49AM

Happy New Year to all!

The opening stretch of days of 2013 will be fairly quiet with shots of chilly air dominating, but no all-out Arctic outbreaks. The northern jet stream will be in control, responsible for the dry weather, with only weak disturbances coming along it and reinforcing the chill from time to time, but this jet stream will remain fairy flat west-to-east overall, keeping the coldest air in Canada.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-15. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-32. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 6-11. Wind WNW 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 16. High 30.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.

178 thoughts on “Benign To Begin”

  1. Since the weather is quiet and since I find some of your answers interesting and at times knowledgable, now the question is and I have the exact numbers but about 1.55 million people move to the dallas Fort Worth area per decade and it shows no signs of slowing down for the next decade or 2, now if I were to send my kids to private schools in Texas, they r telling me private schools r better than most public schools in the country? And from what I can tell they r very nice schools from the outside( most are brand new or built in last 20 yrs, any constructive input is wanted, happy new year!!

    1. Charlie do some research on rick perry and the cuts he’s made. If he’s cutting services in the name of balancing a budget and millions are moving there……..well its common sense but you know this and will have to do what you want to do. I wish you happiness wherever you go and the good part is you can still be here. Happy New Year 🙂

  4. Thanks TK and Happy New Year to you and everyone on the blog. I look forward to another great year blogging with all of you.
    Since its the 1st of the year its once again time for bold weather predictions for 2013.
    At least 1 double digit snowfall for Boston
    7 out of 12 months with above normal temps
    below normal precipitation for the year
    15-20 90 degree days
    1-2 tornado watches posted including 2-3 big thunderstorm days.
    What are your bold weather predictions for 2013??? I would love to hear them.

    1. My only partially scientific 2013 predictions…

      Still maintain near to below normal snow for the winter overall but 1 or 2 significant snow events probably February and/or March. It will snow in March this year.

      2013 drought intensifies through mid summer and is broken by a series of tropical rain events August / early September.

      Less than normal amount of t-storms but one severe weather outbreak in June or early July that will include a few “low precipitation” super cell thunderstorms much like what you see in West Texas.

      Quick description of the 12 months (not an official forecast):
      JAN: dry, chilly start, mild middle, cold finish
      FEB: cold & snowy (but not too much above normal)
      MAR: milder, some snow but drying trend
      APR: cool & dry but a couple brief warm spells
      MAY: mild & dry but a couple brief hot spells
      JUN: hot & dry, drought worsens
      JUL: hot & dry, drought peaks
      AUG: warm with tropical rains breaking the drought
      SEP: wet & muggy start .. chilly & dry finish
      OCT: dry & cool transitioning to wet & cold
      NOV: cold & wet start with early snow then dry & cold
      DEC: brief thaws otherwise cold with frequent fast-moving snow events

      That was fun. 🙂 Now let’s see how wrong I am.

      1. Do you think in addition to snow in march which would be great that you could order s warm spell. Thank you 😉

        1. I love when we get a significant snow in March followed by a warm-up. I like watching snow melt as much as I like watching it fall. I know that sounds weird but I’ve always been fascinated by that process.

          2. i do not like seeing the snow melt. i hate the brown mud yuck. if its going to melt make it quick and i mean real quick and have trees becoming green within a week. i know that does not happen in new england but seriously hate that period

    2. I remember doing this last yr. and I was so wrong! And I’m sure I will be very wrong again this year, but here goes:

      Winter : I still believe we will be getting at least 2 more big snowstorms this season – probably in late Feb./March. At least one of them will be of blizzard proportions. Temps. for the rest of the winter will be up and down, resulting in an average winter. temp. wise.

      Spring: spring will start out wet and cold, early part will be some snow. By May we will dry out and warm up – but no real heat yet.

      Summer: kind of agreeing w/TK a bit, here. First part of summer will heat up and be dry, up until mid-late Aug. when some strong systems will give us a lot of rain. I will go for 3 tornado watches and a few severe thunderstorm watches. Some storms will be really severe, possibly a tornado or 2, late June or July. And I have to add that I believe in Sept. or Oct. New England gets a big hurricane. We get brushed by at least one tropical system during the summer.

      Fall: a wetter scenerio ends the summer and temps. cool down leading to a cool and wet fall.

      Winter: can’t see that far – will take a guess to an unusually snowy winter.

      Thanks, JJ! That was fun! 🙂

  5. Thank you, TK. Happy New Year! I do not mind the quiet, relatively cold stretch. I think there will be some skating on shallow ponds by the weekend.

  6. I keep reading the title of this blog as Begin the Beguine – the old Cole Porter song that maybe – just maybe – a few here remember. As I recall it recalls the memory of green……a hidden message TK 😉

    1. The song title was the inspiration for the title, so I took a variation on it and applied it to this week’s expected weather.

        1. Completely true. I thought of the song title as soon as I tried to think of something about the start of the year.

  7. I can’t believe that we are in a new year already.

    I wish I had some bold predictions like others, but frankly I don’t.
    The weather will be what it will be whether we like it or not.

    I’m not getting a good feeling about the remainder of this Winter. Hope I am
    wrong. Today’s charts look brutal! 😀

    I do, however, feel that this Summer will be HOT. Other than that, nothing
    to say.

    Have a great Year all.

    1. January1st and the Ocean is still 46F. Truly astonishing!!

      BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
      (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
      Last Updated: Jan 1 2013, 8:50 am EST
      Tue, 01 Jan 2013 08:50:00 -0500
      Temperature: 38.1 °F (3.4 °C)
      Dewpoint: 27.1 °F (-2.7 °C)
      Wind: West at 24.6 MPH (21.38 KT)
      Wind Chill: 27 F (-3 C)
      MSL Pressure: 1007.0 mb
      Water Temperature: 46.0 °F (7.8 °C)

      Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
      (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
      Last Updated: Jan 1 2013, 8:04 am EST
      Tue, 01 Jan 2013 08:04:00 -0500
      Temperature: 38.7 °F (3.7 °C)
      Wind: West at 26.8 MPH (23.33 KT)
      Wind Chill: 27 F (-3 C)
      Visibility: 1.60 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1005.8 mb
      Water Temperature: 46.0 °F (7.8 °C)

  8. 2013 Weather Predictions

    10 out of 12 months above normal temps, 8 out of 12 months below normal precip.

    February 2 to 14 time frame : a close to 20 inch snowfall at Logan.

    April 17 to 25 time frame : first 90F day

    Mid June to early August : New England will once again sit at the eastern edge of a huge central US ridge. It will be in the mid 80s to low 90s consistently without a lot of high humidity. On occasion, a bit of the extreme heat will break off from the ridge and Logan will have 2 days of temps 98F to 102F, with a total of 12 to 15 90F plus days.

    August-September : as the anomolously mild Atlantic ocean temps continue with no big La Nina or El Nino in place, New England for the 3rd year in a row will be impacted by a tropical system.

    October-December : autumn will continue to a bit milder than normal and the first snow at Logan will fall between Dec. 9th thru the 16th.

    1. We need to remember we did this today, because in about 2 days, I’ll already have forgotten half of them 🙂

        2. Haha …. Nope, I was the designated driver last night. I’d probably do a little better on the predictions if I was a bit more woozy this morning.

          Getting old …… Gotten old ! 🙂

  11. JAN: dry with near normal temperatures.
    FEB: snowy and cold
    MAR: near mormal to slightly below normal temperatures with some snow first half of the month.
    APR: dry and cool to start then wet and mild later half of the month
    MAY: dry and warm
    JUN: mild and dry
    JUL: Extreme heat most of the month seeing 90+ with little precipitation besides for a few cold fronts moving though which in general will be thunderstormed starved.
    AUG: warm with a tropical air mass
    SEP: near normal precipitation and near normal temperatures
    OCT: wet and cold
    NOV: cool and wet with are first snowfall sometime around or after thanksgiving
    DEC: cold and dry some light snow events from alberta clippers

      2. no not yet. I have not loaded the pics to the computer yet. i probably get them one with the ski video’s that i got yesterday.

  12. Here is some more very interesting reading on Global Warming. Please also notice
    some of the intriguing links as well.

    http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/globalwarming/index.html

    I fully realize that there have been climate cycles throughout history, no denying that.
    But since the beginning of the industrial revolution there has never been a period in History where the emissions have been constantly on the increase like now. Sure there have been meteor strike and big volcano eruptions, but they are one time events and not the constant flow of emissions like now.

    I know many of you are not on board, most especially TK. Tk will be on board at some point, just like he finally was on board with the higher snow amounts for Saturday’s Snow event. 😀 His conservative nature does not allow him to get on board early on, that is all. 😀 That’s OK, some of us will do it for him. 😀

    Thank you for allowing me my New Year’s Rant.

      1. Wow. Should have kept inlaws home in charleston. It’ll be ocean front.

        Amazing graphics OS. Thank you

      2. Well this one was extreme. Didn’t realize that one could chose the level of sea level rise and it defaulted to 25 feet. Sorry about that.
        5 feet would have been more realistic.

        1. How many feet have we lost already? I’ve seen enormous changes in just the beach we go to in 60 years…..actually most have been in the past 3 decades and more noticeably in the past two years

    2. Thank you for your “rant” although to me its just common sense. Interesting that the numbers are going down in the United States. So we have it in our power to make a difference. My question is since we do not know what we are doing to our earth isn’t making a difference – and no one can say positively it isn’t or is – what is the harm in attempting to reverse the trend? IMHO its a win/win.

      Climbing off my soapbox now………I think

  13. Here are my 2013 predictions:

    1. Game time temps for the Pats playoff game on 1/13/13 will be at least 45-50+. I have no idea if rain will fall or just fair skies.

    2. Boston will get ONE and only ONE significant snowfall with no mix or change. All other storms will see change to rain or rain from beginning to end. Water temps will remain above 40 degrees. Suburbs will get more snow aplenty which will make Logan’s final total for the winter very deceiving compared to the rest of SNE.

    3. The SB will feature Pats vs. Redskins…Brady vs. RG III.

    4. Drought #s for Logan will reach double digits again, but for a much longer period of time. IIRC it was only for a couple of days or so just last month.

    5. Ch. 7 will get a gorgeous babe for mornings to fill in Dylan’s slot by spring. 😉

        1. Seriously…I hope Ch. 7 does make the move so they can compete with Ch.s 4, 5 and 25. I would be curious as to the morning ratings since Dylan left, especially for the wx segments. 😉

          1. Give me someone like Barry Burbank anytime
            over one of those babes. Most of them don’t know anything! JC Monahan on Ch 5 excluded. 😀

              1. Just to clarify – does that presume a non babe would be highly intelligent ? It would help to explain why I’m so smart 😀

              2. Not at all. I am simply saying that the ones I have seen on TV in the mornings are not very good.

                The best Woman Met I have seen is JC Monahan on Ch 5. She is excellent.

                I am judging just on meteorological content only.

                Btw, If Hilary Clinton runs next time, she has my vote!

                1. I guess what I am also saying is that station managers sometimes hire based on looks and not talent! 😀 😀

          2. Hey Adam Williams is on mornings. I think he does just fine ……… My guess is more women watching than men but just a guess

    2. Game time temp for next Pats Game on 1/13: upper 20s to Low 30s
      There, I made a prediction. 😀

  15. My weather prediction for 2013. We will have snow, rain with some sunny and cloudy days. Temperature will be hot, cold warm,mild and cool.

  17. My weather prediction for 2013:

    January: Drier and seasonably cold with a moderate snowstorm during the last week of the month.
    February: article cold start with a very stormy mid-late month with a sizable snowfall in there (15 inches).
    March: stormy first few days with some snow, drier and mild after that.
    April and May: Dry and seasonable after a cool start to April.
    June and July: Dry and hot with moderate humidity courtesy of a west to Northwest flow around the central ridge.
    August and September: Dry and hot first half of August, increasing tropical rains in the second half into the beginning of September, drier and mild after that.
    October: Dry and seasonable temps.
    November: Dry and cool to start. Cold and stormy to finish with 2 storms featuring snow just away from the coast.
    December: very cold with frequent snow events!

  19. Surprisingly Henry Margusity posted a blog this morning and he says no snowstorms in sight for the next 2 weeks until late Jan/early Feb. After this week, nothing but mild temps for the forseeable future for now (unfortunately).

    1. Thanks OS…Wow!

      Too bad that much of that will be gone in the next week or two…especially on the southern fringes.

  21. My call for 2013.
    1. The warmth coming in is overdone and will return to cold air by the time the pats play in a very cold game.
    2. Next snowstorm MLK weekend.
    3. Still going with a cold and snowy winter finishing with above for snow. Two very big snow event to boost the numbers, than some clippers. South shore community right down to the cape major snow event with double digits.
    3. Cold march with one storm probably a mix event Boston/south.
    4. Nice spring with warm weather again in April.
    5. Hot/ dry summer.
    6. Storm again for labor day weekend for like the third year. This Time a hurricane that will rival Bob and Gloria.
    7. Very nice warm fall.

    1. i like your forcast being a little optimistic for january and i hope your wrong about the labor day storm.

    1. Amazing video! Thank you for sharing.

      I wonder what the annual snowfall is in that region?
      Those snow banks were 20 feet high!!!!

  23. From what I have read, Hakkoda gets about 14-20 meters of snow per season…thats in the ramge of 46 to 66 feet of snow. Holy snowblowers!

  24. Snowcover, which we have in abundance now, modifies things. It won’t get as warm as the Euro has advertised.

    The all-time warmest for 2012 may be true but was heavily skewed that way by the first few months of the year. The rest of it was not that exceedingly warm, relative to normal.

    1. i made one of several different things including some attachments to my computer. thanks to my uncle and parents 😀

  26. This is not arguing the #’s for the New England cities, which are fine.

    But it reminds me of a few stories I saw recently about 2012 being in the Top 10 warmest years on record. The articles then go on to state that records for this list began in 1979, based on satellite tracking.

    Here’s my issue. 1979? Really? With just over 30 years for your data samples, there’s a PRETTY decent chance that 1 out of 3 years is going to land in the top 10.

    Satellite tracking? Already proven not to be all that accurate anyway. Let’s stick to observations, and I mean real observations used with calibrated instruments, if we want to track temperatures. And let’s stick to a data set that actually has enough years in it to mean something in terms of long term trends.

    This is the type of B.S. that the public is fed and believes because they don’t know any better.

    1. Hmmmm so how does the data explain lakes being consistently frozen by november in previous decades and not in this decade? TK with all due respect something is not right. It may be that as you advise we move from models and use knowledge that we also move from data that may not give the entire picture and use our common sense/ knowledge

      1. I’m not arguing that point. My argument had to do with labeling a year in the top 10 warmest (making it appear that it is of all time) when it is of the last 33 years). Just a bad way of representing the data.

        Those lakes were not consistently frozen over in previous decades by November. The average ice coverage on the lakes as of 1980 on November 30 was approximately 4%. If that average had been above 75% before that and suddenly fell to 4% by 1980 that would have been a much more scary scenario than the lower coverage trend since 1980. I won’t argue that the ice coverage has dropped. It has. But I’m also not convinced we have caused it. There are still too many variables to be sure one way or another.

        1. I should append to this to say that I do know that many of the shallow lakes in the north had ice on them earlier previously than now, on average, but I looked at NOAA data on coverage averages for lakes through the Northeast.

        2. Point taken TK. The difference is that it was the norm and now is becoming the exception. I get what you are saying with regard to being the warmest of all time.

          Per lakes – My brother competes competitively in downhill skiing, skating and water skiing in New Hampshire. He has for 60 of his 70 years. As I’m sure you know conditions are key and a good competitor – which he is – knows timing year in and year out of those conditions.

          As I said earlier by the time we figure out if we are a factor, it’ll be too late. I don’t see a downside of taking steps now but I see a huge risk if we are wrong and don’t start

          1. I think we should take steps. It can’t hurt, regardless of cause. I’m completely with you on that.

            I should talk to my brother’s friend. He has a house way up in NH at Twin Mountain and has gone snowmobiling across frozen lakes for decades himself (he’s about 60 now). I will ask my brother to ask him if he has noticed any significant trends with lake ice, etc.

            1. I’d be interested. My brother has a place on winnepesauke. I will be curious to know if there has been a difference that far north. Twin mountain is not far above where I skied. I can say for a fact and have said as much on here that there was never a Christmas vacation week that we couldn’t ski with one exception which must have been in mid60s I’d have to do some research to see if that has changed.

  27. Todd on BZ has a low of 10 for tomorrow and a low of 5 for Thursday.

    He did however mention the “possibility” of hitting 50 next week.

  28. Enjoyed reading everyone’s predictions for 2013. Will see how 2013 plays out.
    Its looks like winter will be taking a hiatus for a good chunk of January.

  29. I put a reminder on my calendar for nov 13 that everyone predicted on today’s date. I will create a quick word doc tomorrow and keep it until late in the year. As always ill let you know I saw your prediction.

  30. So according to some news stories regarding the l street dip in southy today the water temperature was 37 degree. If not mistaken wasn’t it in the 40s for this last storm. I thought like 45/46 degrees. If all those numbers are correct the tempature of the water is drastically dropping, in which case would be good for coastal areas for the next storm.

        2. Ocean currents. They take temperatures up and down a lot faster than the weather does. I’d mentioned the thing about the ocean currents and mild water temperatures impacting rain/snow lines during the last storm.

          1. So with it down now is that a good sign moving forward or like I think your saying it will go back and forth. Weather wise the temp sure is dropping tonight, its cold out there now.

    1. Thanks Vicki. I’ll take a look at it myself as well, and I’m going to text my brother to have him ask his friend about the lakes up around Twin Mtn. 🙂

      1. I have emailed a childhood friend. Her dad and mine worked together and skied together. He had a home on about 20 acres on Lovewell pond in fryeburg ME since at least the 50s. It’s along the Saco river. I’m curious to know what she has noticed for ice.

      1. i still have a good amount of snow in my back yard … i think maybe 1 or 2 inch snow melt.

        sledding hill is at 6 inches. and i have a huge snow pile at the end of my driveway. for when needed i can shovel it on

  33. Well, if these temps dont chill off the ocean, nothing will. I notice the buoy 16 nautical miles east of Boston is at 45F this morning.

  34. Charlie I got about 4-5 inches here in JP and apart from my driveway that I shoveled 99.9 % is still here.

  37. I noticed Adam Williams (Ch 7) was flanked by two women this morning on the new show. JR is still doing the weather. Perhaps instead of adding a lady met, Ch 7 has decided to add a lady anchor?? And I am not sure what happened to Chris Lambert (met)

  40. 15 degrees here – wind chill 7 and dp 5

    John JR said that water was 42 when L Street Brownies went in yesterday.

    1. Remember,

      That is close to shore where it is shallower and less water to cool down.
      Generally, it be cooler than the buoys in Winter and warmer is summer.

      For storms, it only makes sense to look at those off-shore buoy temperatures.
      😀

      1. That’s what I was thinking yesterday, OS. I figure also right at the shore the snow itself might make a difference in cooling. Last year I was going by bouy temps. I’m not sure what JR used but it would seem more in line with bouy also.

    2. Also, As far back as I can remember, they always reported the water
      temperature in the 30s for those New Year’s Day plunges. So it is clearly
      warmer. (Or less cold. I wouldn’t want to take a dip into 42 degree water) 😀

  41. For 2013 predictions I have – JJ, TK, rainshine, Tom, Philip, Matt, North and John

    Anyone else want to play?

    1. Vicki,

      As I posted yesterday, my only prediction for 2013 is for a HOT Summer.

      I’m just not as smart as the rest and am unable to make a month by month
      predication. 😀

      1. Sorry OS and I have recorded that you have predicted a hot summer. Laughing about the not as smart comment 🙂

  42. This isn’t as easy as it looks – but quickly ….

    January – Average temps and dry
    February – One larger storm (8+) and two smaller events (2-4) temps a little above average
    March – early storm (6-10) then above avg temps
    April – June below normal precip and above avg temps
    July – August – above avg temps, below avg precip and possible TS or Hurricane late August
    Sept – October – above avg temps, avg precip
    Nov – above to avg temps, perhaps one low-mod snow event
    Dec – above to avg temps and a few small snow events

  44. Hadi just a quick question. Where is the best place to stay at Disney that would cater the entire family, would like inside the park. Have an agent but just thought I would ask.

    1. I’m not Hadi (although I suspect you notice) and Hadi would certainly be a better source but it depends on what you want to spend, John. I would never stay outside the park but that’s me. We have driven down in a camper and stayed at Fort Wilderness. We have rented a cabin at fort wilderness. And we stayed at the sports hotel last time. There are all sorts of price ranges. Disney collects you at the airport and returns you. You do not need a car at any point. and I AM INCREDIBLY JEALOUS. I so want to go back.

      There is a book that I consider a must – I can’t remember the exact name but maybe The Unofficial Guide to Disneyworld with the year at the end.

      When are you going?

      1. Thanks. Staying in park is what I’m looking for. All inclusive package if one exists. I’m looking for somthing nice for the resort, something that would work for all of us. Shooting for this year as he Will be nine in April. Probably seven night stay. Im going to put in a call to the agent who has handled previous trips. I think they may have a specialist just for that trip.

          1. We went when he was really young for a day trip, daytrip disaster. We were on vacation staying at a clubmed in port st.Lucia. that was during the month of May. I have never felt it that hot as it was there that day. It was my first time to Florida so this will be second.

            1. John, we have stayed at the Wildnerness Lodge – cool place and nice pool area. It is close to Magic Kingdom but not directly on the monorail. You have to take a short bus ride for the transfer. Have also stayed at Yacht and Beach Club, Polynesian, and Grand Floridian which are considered their upscale resorts. All are great and the latter two are directly on the monorail, but they are pricey.

      1. Sure would. However, it does look to change thereafter,
        but I’ll believe it when I see it. We shall see. In any case, it
        sure looks like a substantial warm up. Just a question of how
        long it lasts. 😀

              1. I’m the only crazy one here! 😀 😀

                I’ve been a weather NUT since I was a kid, so that makes it a very very long time now.

                Funny story: In high school with my first job, I purchased some wind equipment and installed it on top of the TV antenna that was attached to the chimney. I wasn’t getting good readings when the wind was W or NW. Problem was 3 large Pine trees next to the house. Solution: I grabbed a saw and climbed up each tree and cut OFF the top 15 or 20 feet of each tree and dragged them out into a field behind the house. All this without permission from my parents, I just did it! It worked!!
                Got good wind readings after that! 😀 😀 😀

  48. I think 2012-2013 is shaping up to be below normal in snowfall. It would obviously be back to back winters of below snowfall. This does happen. If my memory is correct this has happened many times. A few years of below snowfall then a year with above to much above snowfall.

  49. Heart of lowest average temps are supposed to be over the next few weeks. Looks like we’re going to escape it again.

  50. As HM mentioned in his blog, the SE ridge is alive and well and the real arctic air refuses to come down into the eastern CONUS.

    That SE ridge has been around for almost two years now…why can’t/won’t it leave?? 🙁

          2. Unbelievable! January is supposed to be cold. We’re supposed to have teens at night on a regular basis, even in the city. From the 30-day forecast, which I do take with a grain of salt, it looks like we may not have another night in the teens after this week. That is brutal for a winter guy like myself. I have been battling another cold – this year’s cold season has been really bad for me, already 3 colds in 3 months! – so I cannot do my morning run. I so much look forward to running in the morning on days like today.

  51. I’m back, we have decided texas is not for us, so it’s down to here or Cali, got about 4 inches that’s compacted here in north attleboro

    1. Welcome back, Charlie. If you decide on CA do you know what part? My husband’s brother lives in Santa Maria, CA, which is in the central valley area of CA. We’ve never been to CA – yet – would love to visit, for sure.

    2. Welcome back also and I’ll echo rainshine in asking what area of CA? I love CA to visit. My husband’s brother also lives there just outside of San Francisco in Moraga.

  52. Looking at the latest models, I do not see any major, prolonged warmup as is being advertised by many. After a cold stretch this week, things moderate a bit early next week but cooler, near to slightly above normal temps look to remain entrenched until the middle of next week. As TK mentioned in a previous post, the snowpack across much of NE should temper the warmup as well.

    The real warm surge looks like it is going to be confined to a two day period next Thursday and Friday (1/10 and 1/11) as a storm tracks well to our west and brings rain showers. Cold air floods in behind that for the third week of January and the GFS continues to advertise a coastal storm threat for around 1/16. Long way off I know but the GFS hasn’t been half bad lately in predicting general storm threats and time periods.

    Patience is key here. A few quiet weeks to enjoy the snow we have and then we get some snow chances again for the second half of the month.

    1. Noticed some of the TV mets are beginning to back off from next week’s high temps they forecasted earlier in the week.

  54. 12z Euro does erode the colder air sooner than its previous two runs and brings the milder air further north into NE next Wednesday. It is also warmer for both Thurs 1/10 and Fri 1/11 with 850 mb temps above 10C! Even so, the warm surge is still short lived. Once the storm passes on 1/11, the northern half of the country is back in the freezer on 1/12….not bitter cold, but at least, seasonable cold.

Comments are closed.