Short Cold Shot

193 Comments

3:18PM

Not a direct shot of Arctic air, but more of a glancing blow, will come across the region during the next 36 hours. This is being lead in by some clouds and even a few very light snow showers this afternoon (one is occurring here NW of Boston at the time of this writing, around 3PM). The overall pattern is dry and rather chilly, with the coldest day of the next several to be tomorrow. A moderating trend may occur sometime next week but at this time there are no major storms in sight, just minor disturbances marking air mass changes. The best chance of seeing any snow showers will be with a disturbance passing through on Friday morning.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows from 0 inland valleys to 10-15 urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting up to 20 MPH. Wind chill -5 to +5.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase west to east. Lows 15-20. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with scattered snow showers in the morning. Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 21. High 36.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 23. High 38.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 24. High 37.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 19. High 39.

193 thoughts on “Short Cold Shot”

  1. Loving the snow flurries/snowshowers! So pretty, and I’m really glad we’re actually seeing flakes (other than from my head, ha ha) in the air this winter! YAY!

    1. Snow showers/squalls are my favorite weather occurrence besides thunderstorms. I even like the way they make the sky look when they are not overhead. We had a light snow showers at Woburn for about 1/2 hour which has now shifted just to the south, but the sun is dropping just below the undefined cloud base and it looks really cool.

      1. I also like it because I’m one of those people who hate it when it LOOKS like it wants to snow but doesn’t – the wasted cold air thing. But yes, it was really great to see the snow! Hoping we’ll get more flurries and snowshowers in the next few days!

  2. The Euro’s prediction of a warm-up will be correct, but it will not be to great magnitude nor will it last long. Already signs of more cold shots of air from Canada behind that brief moderating spell. Still, as mentioned above, no major storms in sight. But the snow pack in place will only erode slightly and crystallize in the days ahead.

    1. I saw signs. Not sure if I believe the signs. Time will tell.

      So far the immediate future looks pretty dull weatherwise.

            1. I was just trying to see which ones worked.
              I found pretty much all I need.

              Btw, I posted something on the previous blog that you might chuckle over. It was a ways up from the end.

              🙂

                1. My Siblings knew and laughed their heads off.
                  I don’t think my parents knew OR if they did NOTHING was ever said or done! In short, I got away with a doosey! 😀 😀 😀

                  When we moved from that residence, it appears the next owner’s had the trees removed. 😀 😀

                2. hysterical and I can’t imagine they didn’t notice – good for them to recognize determination!

                3. Yes, I really did a number on those trees. I made those trees look pretty sick, let me tell you.

  5. Hey all,

    Haven’t checked in for some time (since the Spring I think!). Hope everyoe is well. I see the warm up but I don’t think it gets as “warm” as they are touting..certainly not close to 50 degrees.

  6. Also…reading the last blog…Vicki, is it too late to submit the weather pattern guesses for 2013?

    1. Yes…I froze my arse off washing my truck after the snowstorm…just hate seeing my toys dirty 🙂

  8. Mark/ tj both you guys said you stayed at the Polynesian do you mind me asking when. I was looking at that today. The reviews were mixed, some saying it was outdated. How was that beach there and how is it for a nine year old. Being close to transportation is key. I would like a resort that would work for all of us.

    1. John whe our kids were younger fort wilderness was as good as it got. They had the campfires at night and tons of other stuff to do for the kids. That was years ago so don’t know now. I just did a really quick google and it showed villas at fort wilderness as great for kids. The one thing I found was doing my own research before talking to an agent was key. I’m a control freak however so need to know for myself

    2. John,

      I was young when I stayed there so its been awhile…However I went last year and stayed at the contempary and its nice but the food is not good there. The polynesian overall just has a great feel its a little older the pool is great for kids its got a great setup. The kids will love it!!

      1. Thanks. Looking it over goes for about $500 a night. Not quite my budget. I should have more information by Friday when my agent contacts us. Thanks everyone.

  9. The latest CPC has some major warmth for us next week and beyond. From the way it looks if it verifies, it would put last winter’s warmth to shame. The tv mets have backed off the warmth considerably and bringing it here ever so slowly. With those deep colors by the CPC I would say 60’s easily for high temps. Also at least above normal precip as well but I have yet to see so much as a sprinkle from the tv mets in the long range.

    My bet is that the CPC is very much overdoing the warmth and precip…correct?

    1. Also, I still maintain my prediction that the Pats playoff game will be played under mild conditions. I will be somewhat shocked if there will be any frigid or even normal cold temps for the game.

      Isn’t it a bit early for the January thaw?

    2. Harvey said Sunday morning maybe flurry or very, very light snow, light being key word. I think he had a 50 degree day end of next week. I also think the warmth is way overdone.

  10. John sorry I did not get back to you, but if you google Disney they some properties online that are very good in the park. Take a look at trip advisor but be careful judging all hotels on there bc someone just can’t be pleased :). I stay at timeshares when I go.

    1. Thanks. I have been looking all day, very expensive. I have dealt with youngs travel out of auburn the last two trips and have been happy. Talked to them today and should hear back with some options/prices by friday.

      1. Again the lower priced hotels are incredible. As I said we stayed at the sports one last time because it was a reunion and there were too many of us to pay more. There is no bad place in Disney.

      2. Don’t go through a travel agent IMHO if you can. They charge more bc they earn a commission. In this day and age you can do yourself for a better price.

          1. John the Disney world website is set up where you can input all of your options and they’ll spit out price. You can save each variation. And once you figure what you want call Disney. in addition to being helpful, they may have some extra special prices.

            My daughter and her husband went in 2007 for their honeymoon and had the meal plan and loved it.

              1. Hi John, are you flying down. Both times I went recently, we drove down and stayed at a timeshare 5 minutes away. Timeshare was worth it cost wise in the end, but I understand you wanting to stay inside the park.

    1. I laughed when I read it too. However I’m a bit confused why you’d be happy when the pats bet the redskins. 😉

  13. Ok – can’t believe I’m going to say this but that storm on/about the 13th will end up as a coastal.

    Odds are that I’ll be wrong but I don’t think I’m known as a wishcaster.

    Just calling the potential as I see it.

  14. Warm-up = short lived.
    Adjusting January snow forecast from below normal to much below normal.
    Keeping January temperature forecast at below normal but maybe just a TAD less cold than previously thought. Thanks PNA. 😛

    I think at the end of the warm up we have one rain event that brings us back to the chill again.

        1. LOL 🙂 I know what your mean North, but IIRC the CPC actually got their outlooks correct with the last 2 previous storms.

  17. 5 here in JP!! Thus is what winter is about.

    Will the real TK please stand up 🙂 posting a run of the GFS tells me to keep an eye on that date.

  19. 8 where I live. Love this weather. Wish it would stay this cold all January. When it’s 90 in the summer, I dream of 8 in January. When I was a little kid playing for hours in the snow, or skating for hours on our local pond in Needham (many, many moons ago) my mother said that I would have been perfectly content as an eskimo.

    1. Joshua – I completely understand what you are saying. I also love this weather. My son in law and grandson were out playing for a very long time last night and I sat outside to watch. The air is so clean and fresh and everything looks just sharp and bright.

  21. At 7 AM I had 6F. By the time I arrived at the office it was 10.

    haven’t looked at anything yet. I have a conference call in a minute and will
    be tied up for a little bit.

    Later.

    😀

  23. The map TK posted was from the 0Z GFS. Here is the same time period
    from the 06Z GFS:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013010306&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=240

    OTS. Of course it is the 06Z run. 😀

    Here is the 0Z Euro:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

    Hmmm….Is the atmosphere confused? Are the models confused?
    Am I confused?

    Sure doesn’t look like anything is going to happen in that time frame. OF course
    it is a long ways off and anything can happen. 😀

  25. OS I think you need to look past the actual runs and see that the indices’s are going to change after the warm stretch and a warm storm. Look for the change somewhere around the 15th-16th of the month.

    1. That may be. I wasn’t going past those dates. I was simply pointing out
      that after this brief cold spell it looks to be mild at least through the 15th or 16th. After that, I don’t know. Who knows, the cold air could move in sooner as well.
      Then again, perhaps Winter is over after this cold spell. 😀

      I’m not liking what I see that is all. As I said before, the weather will be what it will be, whether we like it or not. 😀

  26. Btw,

    Although I love the snow and snow storms most especially, I loath the cold.
    I HATE the cold with a passion!!

    My most favorite Winter weather is high temperature about 35 or 36 and low
    temperature about 23 or 24. That’s about it. Any colder than that and I can’t
    stand it.

    1. I don’t mind 1 or 2 – no more – days like this, just to remind us it’s winter. If I had a choice of several 90 degree days or days like this – hmm, not sure. It is easier to get warm than cool, I guess. But if this is the only real cold day this yr., fine with me. Give me a few more snowstorms w/a blizzard thrown in this season and then I am all set for Spring and Summer! 🙂

      1. I’ll take the heat any day over the cold.

        My office isn’t even warm. I’m freezing in here. The heating
        system in this building is NOT good at all. I can’t stand being cold.

        OK, cold rant is over. Let’s see what happens. 😀

        1. Ahh, yes! When I was working (still looking – no luck) I remember cold offices! Wearing sweaters in the middle of July! I think it’s to keep all the computers and equipment running good! Anyway, try to keep warm and think summery thoughts! 🙂

      2. cold and or snowy or hot and sunny with some thunderstorm possibilities . nothing in the between.

  27. It was zero in Pelham, NH this morning. Does anyone see a possible disturbance coming out of the southwest for Sunday morning? Not a lot but there could be some snow in the air.

  28. From Matt Noyes:

    So…what does January hold? The absence of cold in northwest Canada and Alaska is a big factor that favors a mid-month warming, while tremendously cold air continues unabated in Siberia, with some noteable southward intrusions into Asia over the month. That said, our side of the hemisphere will have to wait for a combination of rebuilding cold (which can take weeks) and a shift of air across the northern latitudes. This all will likely spell a shot of cold air somewhere toward the end of January, and more certainly February. This time around, I’m hoping not to bite a few days too early on a southward surge of cold at the end of the month, which I expect to successfully penetrate into the Northern Tier of the nation, probably including Northern New England for the second half of the month, which is why I’ve indicated near-normal temperatures for the North Country overall in the month, offsetting mid-month warming there.

    1. Yes I mentioned this last night. It would be early Sunday morning. Some extremely light, I mean light snow could overspread much of the area. I am leaning more towards a flurry event.

  30. Just curious…did any kids start school yesterday or is today the official start statewide? Back in my day, it was always January 2nd unless it fell on a weekend.

    Tom, you could probably answer this best. 🙂

          1. From our “friends” at NEWW:

            New England Weather Works
            Winter relaxing for a Big reload, we get some moderating temps next week before the other shoe falls, cold and stormy weather will be back in full bloom by the end of next week.

            Really? We’ll see.

    2. Framingham started yesterday but I noticed when I went to the fish market in Wellesley there were a lot of kids out in Wayland so I wondered if they had an early release

    3. I think most school systems started back Wednesday, the 2nd. I think school systems have their choice on crafting a schedule that gets 180 days in by June 30th. So, I’m glad Marshfield started back yesterday because I’d rather get those 3 days in now, instead of in June.

      Interestingly enough, next year Christmas and New Year’s fall on a Wednesday, so because we start the last week of August and get 3 days in then, the school district has a 2 full week vacation next year, with the 180th day scheduled for June 13th, assuming no snow days.

  31. I’m looking forward to end the weekend in the 40’s, get rid of this white salt and dirty snow 🙂

  32. Sl still has not needed the snowblower as they got back yesterday too but they only got around 3 inches in attleboro and when they got back has very little in driveway due to the sun shining on it a good part of each day, they asked me if I could buy it from them haha kidding, when we arrived in boston there was very little snow in shady spots, have a good day everyone 🙂 looks like a snow drought through next week at least 🙂

    1. Idk there was about 4 inches on ground when I got home yesterday and further southeast in attleboro at sil had about an inch less, this is when we got back yesterday, just telling ya what’s on the ground here yesterday, I guess some compacted or melted, maybe u can tell me 🙂

    2. I’m towards the rehoboth attleboro line at sil and as we speak walking through about 3 inches across the entire backyard

      1. Charlie – there has been a tremendous amount of compacting. Hadi is absolutely right about the amounts. It doesn’t make sense to me that you base what they got on what is left. If you’d been here when we had the storm you would have used the snowblower. We used ours. Every person I know who has one used theirs.

        1. We r we going with this I never said anything about not getting the amounts, I’m just reporting what the hek is on the ground here and that’s 3 inches in attleboro and 4 inches in n attleboro period, please everyone look at the comments 1st 🙂

          1. Maybe if I repeat it again maybe we won’t get confused,,, right now, today, Jan 3rd 2013, attleboro mass, again today there is 3 inches, any questions please go above

          2. I did read and it said………”Sl still has not needed the snowblower as they got back yesterday too but they only got around 3 inches in attleboro …” which implies got and not had. Now if you had said “only had 3 inches remaining….” I’d be right there with you!

            Have a good day, Charlie 🙂

            1. I’m sorry Ik we got around 8-10 inches but now theres only 3, and I know about compaction and some light melting, but that’s what’s left here 5 days after storm, 🙂

          1. Je suis Ik désolé que nous avons obtenu environ 8-10 pouces mais maintenant il y a seulement de 3, et je sais le tassement et la fonte légère, mais c’est ce qui est laissé ici 5 jours après tempête,

            1. In Pembroke maybe 1- 1.5. We only got around 3inches. Did not turn to snow till after 10pm. We were in the heavy rain zone.

  36. Think at the height of the storm there could have been a measurement of ~10″ in Attleboro, but the snow clearly compacted quickly into a dense visible 3-5.” So I can see where Charlie is coming from. My mom lives in Attleboro and I was there 2 days after the storm and i saw maybe 4″ at the most. I have driven from place to place since then, from Brockton, to Easton, to Attleboro, to West Roxbury, and in all those places very diff totals but yet with the compaction of the snow from being so wet, it looks like all those mentioned places have the same amount of snow on the ground.

    1. Very nice. I had a espresso figuring it’d keep me up until midnight and it worked great – I couldn’t fall asleep till 2:30 🙁

  41. Pretty good Charlie – Took everything had to stay up until 12:01.

    Watched sweet reruns of the Twilight Zone as the networks were unbearable to watch.

  42. Hazy, warm and humid …..

    Ok, just needed to dust that off for about a week from today ……. 850 temps of 12C … in January ….

  43. Here’s the reason I posted the GFS. I think it is a decent run (00z) with the overall pattern. I think the Euro may be slightly over-amplified. Kind of the JMA philosophy. We’ve agreed on that quite often of late as it has been an issue with that model from time to time since last year.

    It is becoming increasingly clear, however, that even though it is cold/dry now, it won’t persist right through. There will in fact be a thaw. We’ll just see how long-lived it is. I still don’t think it’s going to last that long.

    1. The NWS in their discussion this PM is discounting the GFS in the long term because they feel it is too progressive (it brings the low out of the SW very quickly, giving us rain as early as Wednesday) while the Euro moves the low out more slowly, sending it well to our west on Saturday. They state that these cut off systems in the SW are typically slower to move east as the split flow pattern develops. TK, do you agree with them?

      If the Euro solution is correct, the coastal storm threat the GFS is advertising on 1/13 wouldn’t happen, or perhaps it would be delayed to sometime the following week.

      1. I only partially agree. I think the truth lies in between and we’ll be seeing a wet day on Friday January 11.

    2. I should add that Brett Anderson posted yesterday that the Euro has been all over the place from run to run indicating that the model is still having a difficult time resolving the overall pattern over the next several weeks. Perhaps its solution through next week is plausible but after that it is out to lunch? Not sure what to believe but it seems most other indicators tend to favor a return to a more winterlike pattern for the second half of Jan. and into Feb.

  45. From Brett Anderson:

    We still see indications of some significant stratospheric warming in the high latitudes over the next week, and if that does happen and translates lower in the atmosphere, it can signal a turn to much more widespread cold across southern Canada and the U.S. about 15-20 days after the initial warming. Just another piece of this complex puzzle that we have to closely monitor.

  46. I have a question since the weather continues to be quiet, why does massachusetts keep shrinking our military bases or shutting them down but are building up and building new bases in the south and west,, What’s the reason for this? Thanks 🙂

    1. 50 may be tough to attain over a frozen snowcover except well, where there isn’t much snowcover. 😉

        1. It usually does shrink even in very cold weather due to sublimation as well as the melt/freeze process. The vast majority of the snowcover will stay, provided it does not get to warm and/or rainy.

  48. My goal in this comment is not to get into politics …….

    I understand the NY / NJ area, as well as other Sandy affected areas were hoping to see a 60 billion dollar relief package and 2+ months after the storm, it hasn’t been approved through the legislative process.

    Again, trying to avoid the politics of it ….. I just hope that our region is not the next majorly affected area from a weather related disaster because I get the idea that federal assistance in terms of monetary aide are going to be more difficult to come by.

    1. Makes me mad to think that the house didn’t vote on that Tuesday before they left. Most people in NY and NJ that were impacted aren’t in a position to wait.

      1. I won’t get into politics either. Tom very wise comment. North I’ve been fuming for a while. Politics aside it is terrifying that it takes this long and with politicians in the affected states who are proactive

  49. It’s all about politics Tom, most in NJ and NY pay some of the highest taxes and usually vote blue so a red congress isn’t going to be as quick bc they could care less. IMHO

    1. Unfortunately, I do understand the politics involved ….. I guess what I’m saying is……. are people across our great land taking notice of this, so that next summer, if for example, the next Katrina like storm is headed for the US Coastline, are people not only evacuating, but evacuating with as much as humanly possible because their worried their damages may not be as quickly dealt with, if at all.

      1. Id have to answer with a resounding no – people are not only not listening, they are making excuses for why the house didn’t vote for the relief. I hadn’t thought as far ahead as you have. It’s a terrifying thought but i think we are in our own.

        1. Well, it has me thinking. I suppose a tornado threat is…..get your family to safety and hope for the best on material things………. But other weather threats like hurricanes, etc have plan time and I think watching this has me thinking what else I might do pre-storm, in addition to getting my family out of the worst of the weather.

          1. It’s make a really good discussion here Tom. We do a lot year round to make sure we have basics and there are things we do once it appears a storm is imminent.

    2. And they are ticked at Christie for praising Obama. So where does that leave our blue state. Tom has a great point.

  50. I just reread your comment Tom and think I didn’t understand it completely. You are asking if people understand going forward if people are in a state impacted as severely as those devastates by Sandy they understand they are on their own and need to do all humanly possible to protect and save what they hold dear? Badly worded I know. I don’t think so. I think too many are either ignoring because it simply doesn’t affect them or they can’t see past the politics. I need to ask some about this. It’s an excellent question if I understand correctly

    1. I suppose thats it Vicki. I havent too often, if ever thankfully, had to get out of the way of an impending weather disaster that has some pre-planning time. i think tornadoes are the exception, get the loved ones to safety, period. But, in a hurricane, I suppose my thought up to know woukd have been, take off to relatives in Lowell area if its going to be real bad in Marshield. But now, its like, I think I’ll now be looking and thinking about my household and wonder what else I should take along ? Maybe, I dont know, whole issue just got me thinking I guess. 🙂 I should take my insurance policy out and relearn what is in it.

  51. Charlie, what you think of my boys!! You think we beat Seattle? I am jacked up and it’s only Thursday!!!

  52. North totally correct about the Ohio comment. I hope people finally realize that most politicians care about themselves.

  53. Tom to repeat I love your thought process. Where better to brainstorm about preparations for a weather event than on a weather blog?

      1. I just read your comment. Someone told me earthquake damage is not covered in a normal policy. I thought I heard hurricane isn’t either but may be very wrong. I need to contact my agent. But I am now thinking I need a list of things to take in the event of evac. However you are far, far more likely to have to evacuate. There are important papers and medications to mention a few.

        1. Yes, it seems the insurance companies find ways (loopholes) where they’ll say the policy does not cover such and such. In Sandy, I think when the National Hurricane Center did not issue Hurricane Warnings because Sandy was transitioning to a hybrid storm and the NHC instead let the weather offices issue high wind watches/warnings, that had implications on insurance not covering damages because of the type of warnings issue. I think I have that correct and if so, its ridiculous !

          2. Hi Tom,

            From an insurance point of view you need to read your policy. Insurance companies in MA have begun to issue policies with wind deductibles for Named storms which is for hurricanes. Typically these deductibles are 1-2% of your Dwelling coverage. So if your home is worth 500k and have a 2% wind deductible your deductible is 10k. Commerce, Travelers have begun doing this within 2miles of the shoreline.

            On the political front everyone needs to know that government is the least efficient in doing anything including restoration and repairs in major disasters. People have to depend on there communities and charities to help during such disasters. The fact that the house didn’t vote on the Sandy relief has more to do with 60 billion in pet projects and not just repairing the damage that occurred. NY & NJ needs relief and I understand that but people have to realize we don’t have any money left and we need to figure out what is needed and what has to be postponed.

            On another note just look at the fiscal cliff they raised taxes on everyone with the payroll tax, estate tax, income tax, and capital gains but also gave away tax breaks to alternative energy, nascar and others up to 74 billion in loopholes and added with Tax increases 4 Trillion dollars to the debt over 10 years. We need to figure out what to do next and where to start cutting our costs.

            1. Thanks for the insurance info. I have to look into this and youve given me a good start. My opinion is If the house didnt like what was in the bill it was its responsibility to stay and work on it

            2. TJ, this year my homeowner’s policy included Hurricane Coverage. I live in Brighton, so I thought it was odd coverage???

            3. Thanks for the insurance info TJ !!

              After posting here last evening, I did read that the Senate added a lot of non-Sandy earmarks to the package. Not good at all, one would think they could in their right mind that they could just pass a simple piece of legislation 100% directly related to the storm damage.

  55. Long range GFS looks plenty active after next weeks warm spell. Strap on your seatbelt bc we are going for a wild ride IMHO.

  58. I’m on board with the return to colder weather after the brief warmup next week. However, not sure I believe we slide right into a train of snowstorms. GFS continues to signal something though in that 1/13-1/17 time frame for the last several runs so certainly something to watch. Let’s see what the 0z run has to say.

      1. Pretty much! Still has something cooking on 1/15 but more of a glancing blow.

        Not liking the heavy rains and spike of very mild air Wed night/Thurs AM. That would pretty much eliminate any snow cover we have and hurt some of the ski areas.

  60. 106F in Melbourne, Australia ….. I believe this is the city where they have the Australian Open Tennis Major tournament later this month.

    Certainly, heat is expected in Australia during their summer.

    In Melbourne, its a little less frequent, given that its on the SE Part of Australia. I believe its latitude is somewhere around 38S latitude, about the southern tip of NJ for comparison.

    Avg daily high in Melbourne for January 3rd ………. 76F. Actual high …….. 106F.

  61. Looking at the 7 day from BZ and I see they are advertising the following temps:

    Jan 8: 45
    Jan 9: 50
    Jan 10: 48

Comments are closed.