The Week Ahead

172 Comments

8:41PM

The battle continues between the cold air that has been dominating Siberia and Asia, finally getting into Canada and coming down this way in small bits, and the stubborn ridge of high pressure that wants to rebuild itself off the East Coast of the US again this week. Though it will struggle a couple times, eventually it looks like the ridge wins the week, putting the brakes on an advertised switch back to more persistent below normal temperatures as we saw back in November. It’s almost likely waiting for gas prices to fall. When is it gonna happen? Is it EVER gonna happen? Well basic meteorology says that a switch to cold is not all that far off, but a little further investigation indicates we may have to wait until later in the month to see it start to consistently feel like January. We’ll wait and watch as the atmosphere tries to figure itself out over the next few weeks. In the mean time, read below for an updated discussion of weather systems and a forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

A cold front dropping down from the north is causing a few snow showers around the region this evening and these will continue into the early morning hours of Monday. Brief coatings of new snow may occur, especially in southeastern NH and northeastern MA. Any of this hanging near the shoreline of eastern MA and NH Monday morning will depart and the day will be ruled by fair and chilly weather along with a gusty breeze. Moderating temperatures will get underway Tuesday and last through Wednesday as a low pressure area passes well north of New England. Another cold front will drop through later Wednesday without much fanfare, and only return slightly cooler air to the region on Thursday. A disturbance and warm front will pass through on Friday when there may be some patchy light rain, but this will set us up for a warmer southerly flow over the weekend with lots of clouds but temperatures climbing to much above normal levels.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers, especially southeastern NH and northeastern MA where brief coatings of snow may occur. Lows 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy near the eastern coastal areas in the morning otherwise becoming mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-25, some upper 10s inland valleys. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 45.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Low 35. High 45.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 48.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 56.

172 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I’ll admit, the 63F prediction from BB for next Sunday sent me to the Mauna Loa CO2 website. And now TK is predicting a very mild 56F………

    CO2 Data in ppm courtesy of Mauna Loa Website :

    When Pudge Fisk hit his gm 6 extra inning 75 World Series hr : 328.36 ppm

    Blizzard of 78 : 335.26

    When the ball went thru Buckner’s legs 10/86 : 344.47

    Height of 95-96 winter (February) : 363.17

    Y2K concern 1/00 : 369.25

    Keith Foulke closes Sox World Series win vs Cardinals (10/04) : 374.44

    Papelbon closes out Sox World Series win vs. Rockies (10/07) : 381.14

    Current most reading (Nov 2012) : 392.81

    1. I assure you there is no connection between that volcano and my forecast for next Sunday. 🙂

    2. BTW are you thinking that the increased CO2 may have something to do with increasing temperatures globally?

      1. LOL ……. If I understand what I’m reading, then yes. I guess the overall idea as described by most is that, its a natural process for earth to send (radiated) heat back towards space. We actually need some of that radiated heat reflected back towards earth, otherwise it would be too cold for life. Those that think CO2 causes global warming believe that the CO2 absorbs too much of the heat from being radiated back into space and thus, warming.

        I did see plenty of articles online that believe this idea is completely wrong………….. I do find the increase in CO2 ppm over the last 100 years fascinating.

      1. Sorry Charlie. When it crosses 400ppm and I do another one, it’ll feature the snow field goal vs Miami, Parcells, Vinatieri kicks and much more, all Pats ! 🙂

  4. Thanks North!! RGIII was just not healthy if he was I wonder what would happened. I wonder how much heat Shanhan is going to take for letting him play. I guess it all depends on how bad the knee is.

    1. I was hoping for them to go far this year! Yes we will see what kind of heat he takes and how bad the knee is. Hopefully the knee will not need a LT recovery.

    1. i have a snow depth of like 0-4. bare spots to snow probably going to be all gone by the end of next week. Lets see how long i can keep my sledding hill going.

  7. Thanks TK.
    That snow depth may you posted North is going to be quite different by the end of the week. If you are winter hater this is going to be a great week to possibly two weeks for you. If you love winter like me one word UGH!!!

  10. For the Patriots game this Sunday temps look like there gonna be in the 50’s for the game which is perfect football weather,, Go Patriots!!!

  11. Looks like the Euro NAO forecast is back from being out to lunch yesterday and is now showing positive values at the end of the period.

  13. Officially throwing in the towel on this `winter.’ Winter 2012-2013, what a dud! The coming `January thaw’ is a misnomer. January thaws do not last 10 days!

        1. Yes, INDEED!

          I noticed that with the Car thermometer on the way to work. When I arrived at the office, it was reading 36F!

    2. When is it not an anomaly that it’s been mild winter after mild winter, do we need like ten straight less than 15 inch winters for this, cause I’m going with that these r normal winters

  14. Thanks, TK.

    I am still holding onto the belief that after the coming warm-up we will get some more very cold days. I also believe that we will be getting at least 1 or 2 big snowstorms – even maybe a blizzard. The storms will come towards the end of the winter, ‘though. Late Feb. into March. Just my opinion – can’t see the rest of the winter being mild! Would be really weird if it did stay mild.

  15. 0Z Euro predicated NAO:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zecmwfnao.gif

    As was pointed out above, Unbelievable about face from those extreme negatives
    previously forecasted. What is going on here?????

    )Z Euro for 7Pm Sunday Night:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif

    That is 12C at 850MB !!!!!

    AVERAGE ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE.—The average lapse rate lies between the dry adiabatic and the moist adiabatic at about 3.3°F per 1,000 feet.

    If we use the average rate, then descending air warms at that rate.
    850MB is roughly 5,000 feet. 5 x 3.3 = 16.5
    12C = 53.6F
    53.6+16.5= 70.1

    So if the atmosphere get mixed enough, and the wind is more SW than S, then
    potentially it would be “possible” to reach 70F. The wind will probably have more
    of a Southerly component to it, keeping the temperature in the 50s to perhaps
    low 60s.

    We shall see. In any event, it is going to be MILD for that PATS game.

    2. The actual NAO has been positive for almost two weeks now. Haven’t seen that in a very long time.

  16. btw, still having trouble with the links. On that NAO, when it is opened, if you
    “refresh” your browser, it will display the correct Image. Sorry about that.

    The Sunday night image is correct.

  17. Btw,
    On that 0Z Euro run, it shows some really cold air in Canada, but it just
    doesn’t get in here. In fact by hour 240 (0z 1/17), it shows 850MB temps over us
    back up to 8C!

    Sounding eerily like last year, different pattern or not. 😀

    1. Sounds very familiar, OS – thanks for the link. I’m at the point where I will believe it when I see it and in the meantime I will simply enjoy what we have!! It is just beautiful looking out the window today. Birds are chirping away so seem to also be enjoying the nice weather!

      1. I used to get very upset when the weather didn’t cooperate
        and go the way I wanted. It has taken me a LONG time, but
        I am finally able to sit back and deal with whatever comes our way. Right now, I am rather looking forward to a very mild day
        for the big Pats game. I do hope we break an all time high temperature record. Anyone know what the records are for 1/13?

        There will be weather, whether we want it or not. 😀 😀

          1. Should have added that is one of many reasons I love this blog. Even if we don’t get the weather we want, we all have fun tracking it together (or in my case enjoying the links you all post and learning) and that alone is darn near as exciting as the event itself!

        2. Boston Temperature records for 1/13:

          63 1932 -9 1914

          I DO believe we have a reasonable shot of toppling
          that high temperature record. We Shall see.

        3. Well said Old Salty. I think it’s human nature to want to control things, and certainly to a point we can. Weather, though…not so much… Maybe the HAARP conspiracy will change that. 🙂

      2. Good point, Vicki. You always see the bright side, and I appreciate it. We all appreciate it. Those birds you saw will truly begin wondering next Sunday if it is time to log on to birdmatch.com.

        For birders among you, one thing to keep in mind is that even in the coldest of winters, you will begin hearing owl mating calls by late January. My mother loved spring. I was the only avid bird watcher in the household, and would tell her when I heard the owls calling that spring was around the corner.

        1. Joshua I am not sure I have heard the owl mating calls but am going to look up the sounds for them online. I love “my birds”. I tend to be a multitasker so don’t sit in one place for long. Two exceptions are when I am by the ocean and sitting outside watching the birds play at our feeders.

          As I was typing the comment above, I had a lovely male cardinal sitting in the forsythia bushes outside my window. He stops by most every morning to say hi 🙂

          I always think spring when I hear the peepers so am not excited to have a new sound to listen for!

        2. I found this. I have heard the barn owl and am darn near positive I’ve heard the trilling sound of the screech owl. But not the others. I bookmarked the page because I am always aware of different sounds I hear and it’s a great resource. Thanks Joshua!!!!

            1. Been a member of Mass Audubon for as long as I can remember. Thanks for sharing.

              The cardinal is a true gem. I’m sure your husband would agree that it is just so incredible to have a common, tropical-looking bird in these climes. Visitors from Europe are so taken by the cardinal and some of our other beautiful, common birds (Blue Jays, etc …). Birds in Holland are rather boring in color. Most interesting bird to me in Holland was the Magpie, only because we don’t have them on the East Coast.

              1. He was eight when they moved from Sweden but I am not sure he noticed birds. I used to love listening to the birds when we visited his parents in SC. There was a whip-poor-will that used to sit outside our window. And when the Ospry’s finally returned after Hugo it was amazingly exciting!

            2. my neibor and i go out durring the spring and summer looking for different birds and animials. we use to have an owl but for the past 2 years have not seen it.

    2. That’s my point, OS, and yours, too (and Tom’s) for the past few weeks. I wasn’t on board until: a. the models kept flip-flopping and mostly postponing any semblance of winter; b. seeing the imminent pattern change in the Netherlands and other parts of Western Europe, which forecasters there are now 90% confident will occur – this is a bad sign for winter around here; c. feeling how warm it was yesterday and especially today. Supposed to be a cold day for goodness sake.

      Luckily, there are far more important things to worry about and care about. Nevertheless, I am disappointed. I very much look forward to winter, and having two duds in a row is a downer.

  20. From NWS:

    7 AM UPDATE…THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED ACROSS
    NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.

    I thought it was supposed to move through SNE overnight. So that means
    it got hung up. That SE ridge is persistent, isn’t it? 😀

    1. 9AM Logan OBS:

      Last Updated: Jan 7 2013, 8:54 am EST
      Mon, 07 Jan 2013 08:54:00 -0500
      Weather: A Few Clouds
      Temperature: 37.0 °F (2.8 °C)
      Dewpoint: 27.0 °F (-2.8 °C)

      Can we make 40F again today????

      The battle is on! 😀

  21. How many people think boston will have less than 15″ of snow this year. I am going to go with 14″

  22. That reminds me. I was going back in posts and noticed that WeatherWiz asked if it is too late to post predictions for the 2013 seasons. It is not too late at all. My suggestion would be to post them at the end of the benign to begin blog so they are all in one place when we go back to look at the end of the year. But comment to me on the latest blog that you have given your predictions and I’ll go back and capture them.

    Please always be sure I acknowledge that I’ve seen them. The only reason I would not respond to a post to me is if I do not see it 🙂

      1. perfect – I was hoping you were reading and felt badly when I noticed I had missed your comment. Never hesitate to remind me please!!!!

        1. No problem. I’ve been off the blog for a while and just getting back. Nice to see so many comments and when there isn’t a whole lot going on weather-wise.

    1. Ace this is what I have – will someone please make sure it is correct – I didn’t think we had that much

      11/7/12 0.1
      11/8/12 0.3
      12/1/13 0.5
      12/25/13 0.2
      12/27/13 0.1
      12/29/13 2.2
      12/30/13 0.4
      total 3.80

    1. Here you go Matt

      MikeyMac 79.0
      John 76.5
      Coastal 62.0
      Old Salty 60.0
      Nick 56.8
      North 55.7
      tjammer 54.0
      Hadi 53.9
      Haterain 52.3
      Mark 50.3
      Cat966g 50.0
      Kirbet 48.0
      Retrac 46.0
      Scott 45.0
      Shreedhar 43.0
      Shotime 42.5
      DS 41.5
      TK 39.3
      Kane 38.5
      Philip 37.4
      JimmyJames 37.4
      Sue 36.2
      Captain 33.0
      Longshot 33.0
      Tom 31.0
      Matt 30.0
      Scott77 29.0
      Joshua 27.0
      AceMaster 25.9
      Rainshine 24.0
      Charlie 21.3
      Vicki 18.3

    1. I would like to agree hadi but I think spring comes early, just got letters from Lawncare companies stating they will be out applying lime apps in 5-6weeks in late feb? These guys don’t get much time off either, I saw these guys out 6 weeks ago around thanksgiving, anyways can’t complain 🙂

  26. Again when does it not become an anamonly example this could be the 3rd or 4th March when we get little or no snow so if we get 6 inches would that be an anamoly? Cause in my book I think it does

    1. or how many winters do the lakes up north not freeze in November. I did hear from my friend whose family has had the home on Lovewell Pond, Fryeburg, ME and she said winters in 2000 are far and away different from those in the earlier decades – both snow and freezing of lake

    1. just hit 40 here – —- and I don’t think your chuckling is as light as you believe….. I can hear you way over here 😎

    2. Yes, school 🙂

      Our lunch is 11:05 to 11:30, so just had to see the Logan temp before heading off to lunch.

        1. Yes,

          I just checked the 12Z GFS for hour 8750. Sure shows snow and lots of it, however the rain/snow line looks
          to set up right through Pembroke. 😀 😀 😀

  31. The bare ground line is basically Boston to Brockton to Taunton to Providence south and east is bare and this line is rapidly moving north and west

    1. Was just out at lunch. Drove through the Charlie line between the office
      and home. It is moving slowly North and West. Snow still covering ground in JP.
      At the office in Roxbury, Tons of bare ground showing. In the sunny areas
      ZERO snow cover. 😀

      btw, temperature has cruised down from 40 to 39. 😀 🙂 😀

      1. Yes it’s becoming very patchy inside 128 though there’s still snow on ground with this weeks temps coming I think everyone inside 495 will be bare unfortunately ;(

        1. I’m not sure you can say inside 128 Charlie – at least not metrowest. It’s still solid all through the towns we were in yesterday. Husband works in Watertown and it’s solid there.

          1. my yard the shaded areas and high traffic areas have bare spots actually with the open areas 2-4 inches still. it was 7 inches. so a mix of melting and compressing has occured

    1. btw, I think I mis-read the chart. That should read 10-12C. Sorry about that.
      In any case, still very impressive!

  33. Must say I’m very impressed with this blog and how everyone can openly discuss issues(both sides) whether it be the weather, global warming, etc. I don’t always agree with opinions on here, but it doesn’t mean I don’t respect others opinions and I think everyone on this blog displays a level of respect for all. I think our politicians good take some lessons from this blog. So I send my props to TK once again for creating such a healthy forum for us all!

  35. As I do think we will get snow again this winter but I gotta tell ya, the next 2 weeks are going to awaken the questions etc etc etc on why we don’t get snow and cold with some consistency, personal I don’t notice really overall less snow but something that has caught my attention for a time now is how long or short snow last on ground, it always seems to melt much faster, again I understand we r a spec in time but just saying 🙂

    1. We r going to be in the 40’s and 50’s and might I dare say 60 degrees, what’s ice now will be water in a week, don’t go on any ice!!!!

    2. Interesting point, Charlie. I’ve never noticed how long it stays on the ground. But your theory would go along with whatever it is that keeps the ice from freezing in November even though according to then numbers (and I think we put too much emphasis on numbers alone) November was colder than average. Good point. We may all figure it out eventually!

  37. John did they open the ice rink in your town? If I’m not mistaken it never opened last year or if it did it had to have been short lived. They put one up in Cochituate (Wayland) last year but never added the water. It is frozen now and they were skating yesterday. I had to wonder if they have some sort of freezer they use.

    1. There supposedly building the winter outdoor rink up the ballfields this year opposed to down the center.

      1. One day more than the two they put up in Cochituate – it was the first year there. Will have to ask Mac to check each day on his way home to see if they can still skate on it.

        1. Totally outdoor rinks are very susceptible to Mild weather, especially Sunny mild weather. In this area, NOT a good idea, IMHO.

          If one is going to build a rink, spend the extra money
          and enclose it.

            1. Before I moved a neighbor a street over had an outdoor rink. Last year it got no use at all. I would guess this year has been equally dissappointing for him.

              1. same thing here WeatherWiz. Everyone also used to skate on the swampy areas by the barn where my daughter kept her horse. It was nearly always frozen in the early 90s by Thanksgiving and stayed frozen all year. I’d guess that might be the same as a manmade outdoor rink

          2. they do one somtimes up at the high school soccer field sometimes. and they did it this year . its still open and been open since late december. if they can not use that they use the hockey rink inside

  38. North, theres an outdoor rink in North Attleboro up on High Street. At least there used to be when I was growing up (through the 80’s and 90’s). Every winter the fire dept would come and flood the area with water and it would freeze and stay frozen all winter, until around the early to mid 2000’s, i would go by there on occasion, and it would never be frozen.

    1. I used to skate there as a kid and they haven’t kept up with it, I used to ride the black tracks through there too haha 🙂

      1. 1st there’s not much flow of water to it so they need to fill it with water and then wait for it to freeze, some spots of that pond r 2 ft so it usually doesn’t freeze unless we get a cold winter but they’ve gotten smart they now build a skating rink to 4 inches so all u need is 2 nights in the 20’s its at mason field, I know the global warming no believers say where crazy but the back pond that I used to skate on every yr as a kid has been frozen 5 times since 1996, what’s up I’m not sure but something’s up 🙂

        1. Charlie I know so many who are saying the same thing -including me – that it would be difficult not to believe it. It’s just what you attribute it to I guess.

    2. Yes Ace. I was there a couple of years ago with my daughter. They didn’t do it last year and I haven’t been by this year. They did do an outdoor rink at Mason field though.

  39. Son is at mt Washington hotel bretton woods NH. He said it snowed under a blue sky today and he had no idea why. Anyone?? Pic he sent shows not one cloud

      1. Thank you. I had never heard of that. I sent him the link. Very cool that they got to experience it

  41. The bare ground line by this time tommorrow places like n attleboro, foxboro, Norwood,Dedham,Brookline to Medford south and eastward will be bare, and then yes just 48 hrs from now bare ground will go beyond 128 working into metro west 495 belt 🙁

  42. The snow at Mount Washington under a blue sky has nothing to do with climate change, btw. 😉 LOL!!!

    Actually it did that here around Boston in February 1985 – for the entire day.

  43. Dan shaunasy is a bafoon excuse my French, he hates that the Patriots have been good for so long and the redsox are not, he’s so jealous and mad, he’s trying to ginx the patriots by putting in the papers about this being a easy win, it’s so obvious, I could knock that guy out, Go Patriots!!

    1. Thanks Philip. I was thinking about you this morning and thinking I hadn’t seen you here but may have just missed you

      1. Thanks for thinking of me Vicki. I have been busy with work the past few days. Given the fact that there won’t be much wintry wx for awhile, I probably won’t be posting as much as usual. 🙂

  45. I love channel 5 as I grew up watching them. I trust the experience of Harvey leanord and jc Monahan. But one thing that the weather team is doing that I think is just so goofy is the five day plus two forcast. If you want to change from a five day forecast to seven, well that’s great, but why not just call it the seven day forecast. I guess I just don’t like it. No I don’t like it. Just say let’s check out the seven day forecast instead of the five plus two.

    1. TK mentioned here that Harvey doesn’t like 7-day forecasts. My speculation is that the Ch. 5 bosses may have put pressure on Harvey for 7-day forecasts and the compromise was the 5 day + 2.

      For me as a viewer, I much prefer the 7-days. 🙂

      1. I also prefer 7. The networks do weird things. Todd gross always have the names of their weather spotters when they called in a report. When he left 7 wouldn’t allow Pete to continue. Now I notice JR gives names in the morning from FB reports. Odd

        1. I am going to refrain from commentary on former members of the 7 team. 🙂

          The reason for 5+2 is only because they are Ch 5 and they wanted to use that #. The sound-effects have to go though. 🙂

          1. You’re not kidding about the sound effects – that musical interlude they use when they bring up the +2 always makes me jump a mile in my seat – it’s also the noise the Channel 5 iPhone app makes when there’s breaking news, and my brain makes that connection and thinks I have to check the phone! Plus, I’ve noticed when there’s a front or something else, there’s a whoosh noise.

  46. US weather sites have finally altered their forecasts for Western Europe. They kept the warmth and prevailing westerly on the 10-day forecasts for way too long. The change in weather pattern, which begins Wednesday, will last a while and dooms our winter here in SNE (at least the remainder of January). Cold weather in Holland always means relatively warm weather here. And, when we have a Greenlandic block in the winter, it is always relatively warm in Holland. For those who believe the graphic that Accuweather and others put out on the Greenlandic block making it cold in Western Europe, do not believe it. It is 100% incorrect.

      1. It’s always intrigued me. The closest weather to Holland’s in the US is Seattle. Seattle does not get as cold as Holland, but the climate is very similar. Very little sun in the winter. I mean almost none. My son was just there visiting his Mom. He was there for 3 weeks and had zero sunny days. Yes, zero. And, the temperature did not get below 40, even at night. But, when it is sunny in Holland for 3 week stretches, and this is coming starting later this week, it means the good ole’ East wind (they call it the Siberian express) has come to town. It can then get very cold, and the weather is much more constant than here. So once it gets cold it stays cold for 2-3 week periods, with very little variation. My explanation is that the Highs are relatively stationary compared to ours. But then when it warms up it is not a temporary warm-up, it stays mild and rainy for very long periods of time. Much easier to forecast weather there. It is also a much more boring climate, generally, than here.

        1. Fascinating I would probably find it boring too I know its silly but I find it hohum when I talk to family in CA and they say another sunny day in a long stretch of the same.

          1. Spring is beautiful in Holland. The most tranquil period. Not much wind. Not much rain. The most number of sunny days, especially in April and May. Very different from New England. But, NE has much better falls, winters, and summers, generally. Fall and winter are especially brutal in Holland terms of having almost no sunlight, except for those 3 week periods in winter. Plus, you are way up there in latitude, so the sun does not rise until 8:45am, and sets at about 4:00pm. You often wind up with gray days in which you basically have lights on all the time and hardly notice the daylight.

            1. Mac said same about long days during summer and then long nights during winter. We celebrated a belated Santa Lucia this past weekend – the Swedish festival of light. I have the sense I’d like the long days and then long nights

  47. It will get cold at the end of the month and into Feb. It is way too soon to give up on winter. Hang in there my peeps.

    1. Hahahaha. I love the “my peeps”. My grandson says he’s going to school to play with “his kids”.

    2. It still remains to be seen if the cold is so intense that it keeps any potential storms away, then if it doesn’t snow winter might as well be over…like Jimmy always says “wasted cold”. Hopefully some storms will be able to arrive with the arctic cold.

  48. 17 years ago it was the blizzard of 96. What a storm that was. Boston had 19 inches and Philadelphia had its biggest snowfall on record. This was all part of the same winter that gave Boston its snowiest winter on record.

    1. Remember those times well Jimmy…those winters may never return again in our lifetimes with all this climate change. 🙁

        1. Let me guess Vicki…the power went out for several days and you enjoyed every minute of it LOL. 😉

  49. Sorry if my mood is off, just devastated by the potential news on RGIII. Really frustrated with the whole situation and not sure who to blame if anyone. Just frustrated. 🙁

    1. I didnt hear the news and I didn’t dare ask my SIL. It isn’t even his team and he’s been furious. He said he has the potential to be one of the greats and I will say he is not a fan of shanahan and does blame him esp after RG3 was injured in first quarter and still wasn’t taken out

      1. No final answer yet but I fear an ACL tear but he is 22 years old so chances are good he makes a full recovery.

    2. Even though I have no love for the Redskins necessarily I was rooting for RG III just the fact it is his rookie year. It would have been interesting if he had matched up with the Patriots in the SB vs. Brady. Hopefully he will be healthy next season.

  50. Matt Noyes tweet…. Hang in there.

    @MattNoyesNECN: Just aired my weekly 8-14 Day Forecast on @NECN – already signs of hope for winter lovers after these next 7 days

  52. From Todd on his evening blog….

    it isn’t all bad news for snow lovers, skiers and snowboarders…the pattern will flip 180 degrees next week and deep cold will invade the lower 48…we will undoubtedly get much colder but depending on where the core of the cold sets up we may just avoid the really intense cold. Regardless, the second half of the month promises to feature “real” Winter conditions.

  53. Sunrise 7:12am Sunset 4:33pm declination of sun is at 22/21, gaining roughly a min of daylight per day for the next 2 weeks

  54. The concensus today seems to be 44F to 45F at Logan. 3 straight days the high temps have outpreformed expectations.

    In looking at the infrared satellite, with the exception of a few high clouds, sun’s going to be out and though some inland spots radiated out, the area is surrounded by mild to the west, south (coast) and its moderating aloft.

    I’ve got to think Logan will be headed towards 48F, with a shot at 50F.

  55. (In my opinion), very cold air for sustained periods is not returning in the long term period.

    (In my opinion 🙂 ), the models tend to get the long-term teleconnection forecasts wrong that favor cold air returning. Then, as time passes and the shorter-term teleconnection and oscillation forecasts improve, they usually favor less cold air scenarios.

    I do think if there’s a cold air surge at some point into the US, its headed towards the Plains or even a bit further west than that. Why ? First, based on persistence, thats where its been happening this particular cold season and …. with the NAO not very negative, the southeast ridge has been showing signs of being a feature for the coming weeks. So, I’d favor the cold in the central or western US, with the returning mildness to warmth flowing up the east coast, something the long term models havent shown me they can figure out.

    (In my opinion ….. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 )

    2. Generally agree with his maps, although his stormier scenario in the NE Corridor for week 3 may be wishful thinking.

  57. The blog has been updated!

    Off to the hospital for a stress test (don’t worry, it’s just a long overdue routine part of a complete cardiac evaluation that was never finished in the early 2000s). 🙂 I’ll check in later!

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