Winter’s Vacation

186 Comments

7:16AM

A mainly dry and mild stretch of weather is underway and will be interrupted only a brief spell of wet weather later this week. A mild west to southwest flow will dominate through Wednesday ahead of a weak cold front that will shift winds and bring slightly cooler air in for Thursday. A weakening area of low pressure will pass through on Friday with some rain. As some very cold air that will finally be building in Canada starts to make an attempt to move southward into the north central USA, a push of even warmer air will ride up the East Coast and arrive in New England during the weekend. Here, it will probably be accompanied by a lot of cloudiness.

Detailed forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-46. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-27 except 28-33  coast and urban centers. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 42-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-44. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 32. High 43.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 47.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 37. High 53.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 50.

186 thoughts on “Winter’s Vacation”

      1. JR said on 7 this morning that temp at kickoff could be 50 – don’t think it’s impressive to him either

        1. oops – that being said – because we don’t hit 63 doesn’t mean it isn’t impressive to have mid 40s near 50 for as many days as forecast

  5. The entire coastal plain from Boston to Prividence has bare ground, if you live in and around or inside the 495 belt get out and play in the snow cause its gonna disappear quickly today and tommorrow

    1. Charlie,

      I took inventory this morning. At home in JP, still a solid snow cover, however, it transitions to bare ground within the 3 mile trip to the office in Roxbury. 😀

      So, it won’t take too much warmth to extend that line Westward and Northward.
      😀

      It may, however, take until the end of day tomorrow.

    2. Charlie – I checked this morning. We still have 2 inches on our glass table on the deck which gets sun until at least noon – I was surprised by that since it always melts first. The ground is about 3 inches -more in some spots. Watertown has a solid cover and it’s a few miles outside of Boston.

      1. Non weather related – Keller has a topic on BZ today about leaving Shaughnessy alone – it appears the posters all agree with your comments last night

        1. I happen to like Shaughnessy.
          I don’t understand all of the fuss.

          You may not like what he says, but he calls em like he sees em. 😀

          1. I will have to agree with Charlie. I don’t like trash talk and the pats have always been above it. Sadly it won’t reflect on shaughnessy but will reflect on patriots nation. I’m a bit sensitive because I saw too many Boston sports reporters try to destroy Williams with lies.

  6. TK, thank you for the forecast, and good luck with your stress test. Take good care of yourself.

    I am not seeing a return to typical mid January conditions anytime soon, by the way. In fact, we will likely be above normal for the foreseeable future. While it will cool down after the balmy 50s on Sunday, 40 degrees on Tuesday, January 15th is above normal, and lows in the mid to upper 20s are above normal, too. The coldest period of the year (statistical averages) is upon us, right now, and throughout the next 10-14 days we will likely not see a single day with below normal temperatures. For winterlovers that is a dismal forecast, notwithstanding tweets from some of the mets that “winter will return.”

  7. Hmm…. Well others may not be impressed, but I sure AM!!!

    Here is the 0Z euro for 0Z on the 14th or 7PM Sunday evening:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS144.gif

    That is 850mb temperature of 12C!!! For this time of year, that is downright Toasty!!

    If we take the average adiabatic lapse rate of 3.3F per 1000 feet, then at the surface
    there is the “potential” of it being 70F !!!! Of course that depends on mixing, sunshine, wind direction etc.

    The temperature will approach or exceed 60. 😀 😀 😀

    Here is the 0Z Euro for 0Z on the 18th or 7PM 1/17:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

    That’s some might COLD air ready to build in here!!!!

      1. Well the potential is there. Of course, it doesn’t mean it will actually happen. I have a pretty strong gut feeling that it will.

        And A really decent shot at breaking the all-time high temperature record at Logan of 63F on the 13th. 😀

  8. Tk, have fun with that stress test. Had one several years ago.
    Running up hill on a rapidly moving treadmill while you are huffing and puffing
    is no fun! Best of luck.

  12. From TWC:

    Heating bill relief for many
    Kevin Roth, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
    Jan .8, 2013 5:20 am ET
    Northeast | View Regional Video
    – The January Thaw begins today with temperatures expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average across the region.
    – This is only the beginning as even warmer temperatures build into the region during the second half of the week.
    – By the weekend highs could be 10 to 25 degrees above average.
    – High temperatures today will be in the 30s and 40s from northern Pennsylvania to Maine and in the 50s from southern Pennsylvania to Virginia and in western West Virginia.
    – It should be dry across most of the region through Thursday.
    – A weak disturbance brings some light rain and snow showers across northern New York and far northern New England Wednesday.

  13. Best of luck with the stress test TK. Just ordered an oil delivery and based on the cost I would welcome any warm-up right now!

    1. Interesting. Thanks Coastal.

      We’ll see. This kind of stuff was advertised all last winter and we know
      what happened. 😀

      1. Its not the only outlet advertising a major storm in that timeframe, albeit questionable outlets 🙂

    1. Great read – and I’m going to watch for the book. Thanks OS. It’s interesting isn’t it that a topic that has absolutely no political bearing is divided by political parties. I’m not sure I get why. Also interesting that he moved from republican to independent. I could add more about the shift in the GOP but will just stop now 😉

  18. Went home for lunch.

    Temp there 48. Car temp on way back to office 48.
    Logan 1PM obs: 45

    Pretty mild.

    Still solid snow cover in JP.

  20. I wish I could remember the year but there was a day in February years back that was in the 70’s. I took a photo of my outdoor thermometer to remember it by, but no date. I am sure someone on here knows…thinking ~6-8 years ago?

    1. Hey WW, here is the record for Boston’s Logan for the 24th of February:

      24 70 1985 -7 1894

      Shows a record high of 70 in 1985.

      You were right on the money!

    2. WeatherWiz – my kids February vacation in 1990 was one week of very warm weather. ONly reason I remember it is we were having an addition put on and we could leave the front door propped open and the kids could play outside instead of being underfoot for the workers. I wonder if that’s the year you are talking about

      1. oops never mind – I just saw OS’s post. I’ll have to check what week that was in 1990 — or could it have been 89. The builder went bankrupt partway through so it took forever to complete

          1. Thanks, OS – I remember it fondly – school vacation and kids were not stuck in the house…..amazing what sticks in our minds and why 😉

            1. I remember that school vacation very well too. I was skiing at Mount Snow, VT in a t-shirt. I remember seeing girls skiing in bikini tops and guys shirtless. I remember saying to myself, i hope they dont fall!

      2. Thanks OS and Vicki…this day happened between 2001-2005 or so…wish I could recall! I know as I was in what was my new house at the time. Maybe it was January. Oh wel…all I know is that it hit 78 degrees!

          1. Maybe that was it…I was 12-15 miles north of Boston. It was definitely in the 70’s…thanks OS!

        3. i forget exactly but a few times my family and I went to the beach to play some ball. not thinking it would be that crowded… but of course everyone had the same idea. i saw some crazy people in the water. then i said wait water temperature is probably still reasonalble i put my feet in. it was just as cold as june.

  21. Here is something interesting from the 12Z Euro for 240 hours, or 10 days out:
    (I know a long way out, but let’s look anyway)

    Here is the surface chart with 850MB temperatures:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

    Notice the little surface low in Louisiana.

    Here is the 500MB chart:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013010812&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=240

    Notice the cyclonic flow to this 500MB pattern.
    Notice the closed 500MB low NW of the surface low.

    As this all progresses, the ingredients are there for a sizeable storm with a reasonable
    chance that it turns up the coast.

    Perhaps, just perhaps, something to watch!! This would be for the
    19th or 20th time frame or there about.

    Maybe some of these outlets were/are onto something????????? 😀 😀 😀

    2. Even the EURO has lost it. In 12 hrs it has gone from slightly above neutral NAO around that time frame to off the charts negative NAO.

  22. Hello, the bare ground line runs from just north of Providence north through Attleboro northeast through Taunton north to Brocton north to Boston, if your east or south your ground is bare, here in n attleboro it’s patchy alota grass and 1-2 inches in shady areas so it’s not far away, 🙂

              1. A few yes but there are alot of grass showing, maybe north or ace master can confirm maybe an inch in shady,, and grass anywhere the sun shines longer than a few hrs, borderline bare ground and snow cover, there’s seems to be a light snowcover across eastern mass but it’s diss appearing 🙁

                1. Just talked to my SIL in Uxbridge and he said about 95% of their neighborhood lawn area is covered with about 3 inches. Many of our roofs are still covered.

    1. Thanks…I was going to ask about where you were getting your information. 🙂 Either that or you were getting all Good Will Hunting on me.

          1. OS, something that jumps out at me about those records…more of the record highs have been recent than record lows being recent, if that makes any sense.

            1. Very interesting indeed.

              One note: That link says that they have data ONLY up through 2002, so there are a good 10 years missing.

              Aside from that, I see what you see.

              I wish I could find a better site with
              up-to-date records. 😀

  25. HM hasnt tweeted since that last storm (which is totally botched btw). I wonder if they took away his tweeting priviledges 😮

  26. OS one thing I noticed from that sight and it truly is amazing. The last time Boston set a record low was Dec. 12,1988 (2 degrees); since that time we have set 27 record highs. If 10 years are missing that is even more amazing and probably even more highs have been set. This is coming from someone who is a believer in global warming but not because of the human element. I believe it is from normal causes.

    1. Agreed. Greenland was once green! If it ever “melted” again there would be no end to laws, regs, and money to stop it. It’s just the cycle…

  27. One thing I forgot to mention the records I looked up where only for the 3 meteorlogical winter months…

  28. Reading on Accuweather from Jim Andrews that Australia is baking hot and likely recorded their hottest day (based on avging high temps across the continent) since records began being kept.

      1. Indeed ! They are experiencing what the US is …. Drier than normal ( and most of Australia isnt that wet to begin with ) and thus more of the sun’s energy goes into heating.

  29. The EURO needs to run at least 2 or 3 consecutive runs where the forecasted NAO does not wildly swing from one run to another, before I buy into anything about temps in 10 days to 2 weeks.

  30. There are growing signs that things could get extremely cold around here in a couple of weeks. Look for a “potential” blockbuster lurking off our coastal waters during the early part of the last week of January. I typically only read the blog and write if I see interesting things ahead;)

  32. Good evening all!

    Stress test went great! My heart and blood pressure are good. I do get occasional atrial flutter because it’s a condition that runs in the family and that I will have for life. It’s always interesting watching those extra atrial beats show up on the monitor.

    I made it to stage 4 of the treadmill test and went almost 4 minutes longer than the low side of the average. 😀

    I saw earlier some talking about memorable mild stretches of weather in the winter. I remember mid February 1983 having a very warm stretch with a few days over 60.

    I predict we’ll see Charlie in a helicopter mapping out the receding snowcover sometime this week. 😛

  33. The cold weather’s coming sometime next week. Sound familiar ? Its what was being said in general in the weather community at the end of November (just after Thanksgiving). Its what the weather community is starting to say now about later next week. In the late November example, here’s how that worked out….

    Since Meteorological winter began Dec. 1st at Logan…..

    29 out of 38 days have seen above normal temperatures.

    1. and with Wed thru next Mon pretty much in the above normal column, that will be 35 out of 44 above normal, halfway thru Meteorological winter.

  34. Bare ground from Boston to Brockton to Bridgwater to Attleboro to Providence south and east is bare,, north and west there’s snowcover but it’s a light snowcover and in spots it’s patchy, I think it’s obvious to say anyone inside 495 will see there lawns by Wed or Thu depending on sun or shade, I see alot of cold in about 7 days but will c 🙂

    1. Once u get into Worcester cty the snow cover gets thicker hence it may make it till next week if the cold arrives in time

  35. Charlie,
    I live in Westwood, a few miles west of the city, and still have a solid 4 inches left on the ground. I suspect within a weeks time that most of what is left will melt.

    1. You have a bit more than we do. I’m thinking a week for here. Husband guessing about 3-4 days for Watertown. And that just about borders Boston

        1. My front lawn has southern exposure. Even our south exposed roof has some snow. Not as much as the back of the house. It’s kind of fun to watch the melting. Thanks Charlie. A weather related focus when there is no weather so to speak

        2. There is a small area that has a little more snow on ground and it’s the Norwood to Wellesley to Westwood area

          1. Duh. My buisiness associate lives in wellesley. I didnt think to have him checking snow cover. I will

      2. Just guessing with some rain forecasted for Friday and getting warmer each day this week and even warmer this weekend, I suspect there may be very little by Sunday night.

  36. I’m even wondering if we may have some fog to contend with come Friday evening, if that happens the snow will really vanish.

      1. Absolutely correct. Your choice of words brilliant, as that’s what it does just totally eats away. I think this could come into play Friday evening. If so kiss it all goodbye.

        1. Personally I think even without the fog most of us will have no snow left by later this week, I’m a believer some hit 50 degrees tommorrow but will c, have a good night everyone 🙂

    1. I believe that a Met or 2 discussed this with me in the past and made it a point for me to understand that the fog has nothing to do with melting the snow, but it is rather the conditions causing the fog that does the melting. 😀

  38. No way any of the remaining snow cover lasts a week. Just no way.
    Most will be gone by Tomorrow night, the rest by the end of the weekend. 😀

    1. A week might be pushing it. I expect bedroom communities gone by Thursday. I’d say end of weekend here maybe even sat. Snifffff

      1. Yes. I was in Framingham last evening. Not impressed by
        the snow cover. Certainly gone by this weekend, if not sooner.
        😀

        1. Depends on what part of framingham. Remember coastal arranged for more here :). And where is coastal. Actually I’m serious. It’s amazing how one side of framingham can be different from the other. My SIL and grandson were out sledding in our yard again today.

          1. Well it is a big town and it sounds like you are closer to Sudbury like in the Edgehill Rd. area.

            I was on the Eastern end where the old Shopper’s World was.

            1. You are right about my location. I was at shoppers world today and not impressed but think there’s a lot of other factors in that area. Sniff. You didn’t stop to say hi 🙁

  39. From NEWW:

    We will be looking at a warm up coming North this week, this will be much more noticeable by the weekend as a ridge of high pressure noses in to the south east, the return flow will bring in warmer conditions to the east coast, in this pattern there will be some stormy weather, at this point it looks like rain in the south and a mixed bag in the North changing to rain, this will occur on Friday.

    The pattern is about to take on a new look come Monday, we have been watching some impressive Stratospheric Warming taking place, this is a strong signal that winter is about to crash the door open, some of the coldest temperatures we have seen in quite a while will be moving in to the East Coast.

    Other signals to watch is the NAO, this should go into a negative stage, this will keep the cold air locked in place unlike the transient shots of cold we have been seeing. We posted a long range forecast last evening showing the potential for something along the coast in the coming week.

    Some indication that a rather hefty storm will be off the NC coast, this may indeed get some help from Tropical Moisture that will be moving through the Bahamas, we will be watching for a phase between the two waves, should this verify we could be talking about a true Blizzard along the eastern seaboard, again this is in the long range and is subject to change. 😀 😀 😀

    Yeah, sure! We shall see. Probably will be a monster shore exiting the mid-Altlanitc
    and OTS! LOL 😀 😀 😀

    But it is early. Something may be up. Bears watching!

    1. Well if nothing else we can dream. Did anyone else get goosebumps at the words true Blizzard. Sad I know :(. But I did

  40. Did I read this correctly: Someone on this blog said that Greenland was green at one time. That is false. Greenland was not green at all. It is getting greener around the edges with warming temperatures. But, it was never a green place. It was misnamed Greenland by Danish/Norse settlers who hoped that by naming it Greenland it would attract more settlers. Needless to say, it never attracted many, and the few it did attract were slaughtered at one time by the indigenous people in one of the few instances of world history in which indigenous tribal people drove out white invaders/settlers. The official name of the country or autonomous region (it still has formal ties with Denmark) is land of the Kalallit or people indigenous to the island (I guess technically it is an island).

    On to the weather in this part of the world. I tend to agree with Tom on the almost silly prognostications regarding imminent waves of cold (and possibly snow) about to impact us. This has been going on for quite some time. You would think that the mets would stop feeding us this stuff, but perhaps they have nothing better to do. In any case, we are not going to have a real winter. It has been lackluster at best thus far, and if during the supposedly coldest part of winter we experience 4 days of 50+ weather (which I think is very much a possibility, folks), you can officially write this winter off. Of course, it could get cold again, but by the time that happens (February? March?), the cold will likely be short-lived, and without a snow cover around will likely be mitigated in strength anyway. It is a disappointment. But, as I said before, there are far more important things in life.

    By the way, there will be rather lengthy cold period in Western Europe that coincides with our mild wave. But, forecasters there say it will be muted as the positioning of the High is not conducive to dragging in Siberian air. The stationary High will be positioned too far south for that.

    1. I expect and appreciate your throughs. But if I may offer this winter is not even a month old yet. If I’m reading your post correctly your pretty much saying winter is over. I respectfully disagree. This warm front is, well a front. The storms will be coming and I believe most not all in the form of snow. I can’t think winter is over when it just started. What about February? Known as the month that could be brutal, blizzards, 1978, april fools 12′ digging out. As we may not be happy with how thingsseem now, let’s not get caught in a trap and think winter is over.I still in my honest belief think people will be caught off guard. Look back at my posts from this past fall. In one particular post I recall stating that people will be caught off guard with the slow start/ warmth. But people will be talking at the.. end with the cold/ snowy conditions that we were being dealt . Hang on winter is very young and will not disappear again this year.

          1. I was doing that the other night. But you know what I think we all do it so know what the person means. Now get some sleep. Sweet dreams 🙂

      2. I get what you are saying but if we have to wait for February and march for winter to start Joshua is right. It’s not a normal winter. And what we have so far is not. Even if we end with a couple of months of winter. I will have to recheck but thought you also said it would,start at or right after Christmas. And that would be normal.

    1. funny that the areas where the sun hits all the time still have snow and the areas under the trees have nothing 😉

  42. I was thinking about the blog title. I wonder if its a paid vacation because if it is I’m applying for the job. 2 years is nice vacation time

  43. NEWW sounds like The Farmers’ Almanac which also predicts heavy snow between the 20th-23rd of the month with 6 plus inches for New England.

    1. They may be interpreting things incorrectly, but they are looking at all of the
      data. A far cry from the Farmer’s Almanac. 😀

  44. Didn’t get to post earlier because work blocks the site in the office and on my Blackberry. In response to Charlie’s question, I have no snow in the areas the sun hits and about an inch or so in the shade in North Attleboro. Have to watch out for the ice at night though when the water from the melting re-freezes. Mi have had two friends take falls in the past two weeks. Both broke bones in their legs.

    1. Oh wow. Ch 7 was warning about re freezing. I’m sorry about your friends.

      I’m still unclear To me no snow is no snow. Yet you still have some. I’m going to be very surprised if ALL my snow is gone by EOW

      1. Piles don’t count. It is gone when there is none in your front yard
        and none in the back yard. 😀 Officially, need 1 inch on ground to be snow covered. (I believe this to be correct)

          1. There is snow covering every inch of my yard, front, back and side. But I expect it to be gone tomorrow. 😀

  45. re: snow cover
    Here in JP, the snow barely survived today. Will be gone tomorrow.
    Barely an inch left, perhaps less. Grass peeking through with small bare spots.

        1. Could be. When I ask too many questions via txt I get quick answers. I’m still confused how there is a no snow line where there is still snow

          1. There is no magic line like you describe. It is
            gradual. IT starts with NO snow at all, then
            there are patches. Snow in the shade, then patchy in the sun, then all snow. The line can actually be
            25 miles wide or so. 😀

              1. It is like when the cold air sticks around from the retreating article high. Te Charlie line is sticking around in some communities!

    1. Negative AO, Negative NAO, Stratospheric Warming!
      Boulderdash! 😀 😀 😀 How can the above happen then?

      Wait, it’s the 18Z GFS. AHH that’s the reason. Never mind.
      Maybe the cold will last? LOL 😀

                1. I would maybe say that it will end up being something in between the two solutions. I do think we get some blocking and an artic release later next week.

  47. i have about 4 inches still on the ground but in shaded area and high trafic areas up to 2 inches. this is all gonna melt by the end of the week.

    1. yup. Kiss it good-bye. 😀

      Keep watching the set up after this coming Monday.
      We’ll see. I wouldn’t hold my breath though. 😀

  48. A+ for your stress test and A+ for your forecast. Oh and here is a gold sticker for being awesome. 😀

  49. There really isn’t a define line, right now the only place with no snow at all is capecod to about the canal, then it gets patchy up to I95 corridor and immediate suburbs of boston, these areas will become bare ground tommorrow, Vicki your area will be bare by Thu 🙂

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