Mild For A While

317 Comments

12:48AM

You may be hearing about a record blast of Arctic air on the way for early next week from some outlets, but this simply will not be the case for southern New England. The pattern we are in is mild, and although there is some very cold air coming over the pole from Siberia into Canada, there will be no way to deliver it in force into this region for at least 9 days. The infamous “Southeast Ridge” is the main foe of this, putting up a road block to the cold air. This will continue to be the case probably into if not through the middle of next week. There are some signs that true cold finally arrives late next week, but that being so far out in time, we’ll just leave it at that for now and continue to monitor. So, for the more immediate future, i.e., the next several days, we’ll remain in a fairly mild pattern, along with continue below normal precipitation. Minor bouts of mainly rain are possible later Friday to early Saturday and again early next week as disturbances track west and north of New England. In the even shorter term, one such disturbance will move rapidly eastward, passing north of the area later today and tonight, but this system will only serve to increase the wind, bring a few clouds, and slightly cooler weather for Thursday.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 44-49. Wind WSW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 29-34. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-44. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain late day and night. Low 33. High 44.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 34. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 53.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 50.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 44.

317 thoughts on “Mild For A While”

  1. TK, thanks for update. Have to drive to Philly on Fri and looks like I could be in for a little bit of wet weather.

  2. Thanks TK !

    Well, the EURO is back to something more reasonable looking for the NAO and in accordance, its significantly backed off on yesterday’s 12z coming of the next ice age.

    Mt. Washington, Worcester and Blue Hill are all milder than most lower elevation spots this morning. Once the sun comes out and the air mixes, its off to the races for high temps.

    1. I just don’t think it is able to get a good grasp on things yet with the cold coming back, it has been back and forth a few times over the past several days. Hopefully it will iron things out soon.

    1. Just in time for my MLK snow predicting. I believe it was said yesterday here that there is already a watcher.

  6. Thanks, TK.

    I am glad that your stress test came out ok! Was very busy yesterday w/family stuff so this morning turned on computer. I only have a desktop computer – nothing mobile. Maybe someday.

    Snow has melted in our yard, but we still have a lot – even on roof. Probably due to all the trees.

  7. Good morning all.

    Well, the latest runs sure have backed off the invasion of Arctic air.

    Deja Vu all over again?

    Different pattern or not, doesn’t it sound exactly like last year when the well advertised cold just never materialized??? 😀 😀 😀

    2. I submit yesterday’s 12Z Euro at 240 Hours:

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

      0Z Euro at 240 hours: ( I realize there is a 12 hour difference here)

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

      The more recent run represents a Glancing blow of arctic air, while the
      previous run represented a full-blown assault of arctic air.

      In my opinion, the Euro has back off from the Arctic invasion. 😀 😀 😀

  9. From Accu Weather:

    In New England, it will take longer for the cold air to take root. However, once it does arrive, it could be difficult to get rid of. There is some indication that steering-level winds, known as the jet stream, could dip southward over the region for an extended period aside from a few wobbles.

    In New York City, the latest trends are that the coldest weather may not arrive until late next week into the weekend of Jan. 19 and 20 and the cold may be somewhat abbreviated. This is due to a persistent area of high pressure near the southern Atlantic Coast.

    According to Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, “Long-range temperature forecasts have a strong root to climatology, or normal/average, so that arctic outbreaks and their low-level cold air may be washed out by this basis.”

    The core of the cold air and the center of high pressure does not appear to be aiming for the Deep South, due to the persistent high offshore in the Atlantic.

    Full story: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/timing-the-arctic-cold/3777976

  10. Indeed there is something to watch in terms of a strong cold coastal storm in the early portion of the fourth week of January

    1. Actually,

      I am seeing signs of a Lakes Cutter in that time frame. 😀 😀 😀

      I hope you are correct. 😀

    1. Nah. Look for re-development off the coast or the invasion of colder air to push that low way further east. I’m not buying the GFS 2 weeks out. We’ll see.

      1. It should also be noted that I’m not buying into the “artic” air as advertised for that time period. Nevertheless, look for colder and more seasonal temps during the latter portion of the month.

        1. Understood.

          But also, I am not just looking at the GFS. I am looking
          at the Euro.

          Look at this 500MB 0Z Euro chart at 240 hours:

          This would suggest a storm cutting through the Lakes
          as well.

          But, this is a long way out, so anything can happen.

          We shall see.

  12. Models are in need of a tune-up, not just a tweak. They are clearly not handling things well. In any case, the cold air will not invade us, at least not anything remotely close to a real winter. It is indeed deja vu.

    I will say that today’s run at 5:30am felt colder than I expected. I enjoyed that. Patchy ice here in Boston on the esplanade walkways. I think it got to the mid to upper 20s here. If I have to wake up at 5am or earlier to feel some cold, I will do so. Unfortunately do not have the money or time to head to Quebec City. Wish I could.

    1. I was surprise to look at my thermometer at 7AM to see it reading 28F.
      Honestly didn’t expect it to drop that low.

      Sure will rebound quickly today. 😀

    1. 😀 😀 😀

      Yes, This is the same one I posted above.
      It is cold, BUT not as dramatically cold as previously advertised by the 12Z.

      What the 0Z depicts is a glancing blow. Yes colder to be sure, but it doesn’t
      look to last long and it is not all that cold. 😀

    2. i think the cold will be pushed away from us. looking at that it looks like the bulk of the cold remains to the north northeast of us.

  15. Charlie – Wellesley Hills (one of the exception areas you mentioned) snow report as of 10:15 this morning is 90% coverage from 1-3 inches depending on sun exposure in my business associates yard. 100% coverage in his neighbors yards.

    1. Thank you, it’s getting very patchy across eastern mass and from Boston to Providence south and east is bare

      1. Very eastern MA. I consider here eastern MA and just drove through Framingham up Route 20 through Sudbury and marlboro and it is more snow than patch

  16. about 90 to 95% coverage of about 2 to 4 inches of snow. bare spots forming now…… First time in a while that i have seen bare spots on my sledding hill. going to shovel some snow in the areas that are bare on the hill before the school busses come down my street.

    1. It’s cooler today all over.

      Noon Time Logan Obs: 38F
      Norwood, also 38F

      Yesterday at Noon it was 45 or 46.

      Hey, Here’s one for you. Logan is reporting a SEA BREEZE! 😀 😀

        1. That snow pack and low sun angle will diminish those forecasted high temps as TK has suggested.

  23. just looking at more models and they do not looks so good. some are showing cold shots and some storms but none are saying pure winter storms. they are all rain to snow or snow to rain. cold air does not stay as we have a series of weak lake cutters.
    this weekend will be warm but unsettled next week will be cooler but still above normal in the low to mid 40s. with a few systems moving to our west

    1. Have u lost the snow cover? We r down to 20-30% coverage, Boston to Providence south and east are all bare

      1. Hmmmm. My clinical colleague is sitting next to me and lives in north providence and claims she still has several inches of snow on the ground. I also work in Rhode Island. Believe me, it’s not bare in Providence.

        1. Boston, along the immediate coast line, south and east are bare. Just a couple of miles inland is hanging on to some snow although the snowpack is shrinking each day.

      2. Charlie do you mind defining what you are using as parameters? To me, if there is snow remaining, there is snow cover. I am not hearing anyone except along the immediate coast saying they do not have snow cover. For instance, if Wrentham has 40-50% are you considering that to be inside or outside your snow line? Thank you!!

      3. up to 3 inches the shaded areas and high traffic areas have no snow and there were bare spots on my sledding hill. i went out earlier to shovel snow on the bare spots on the hill the area to the right of it has no snow. I say about 80 to 90 % full of snow but it has melted

  24. Even more guidance this afternoon has suggested the presence of either a primary or secondary cold coastal low for southern new england in about 10-12 days. Could be quite snowy despite all the warmth we will see over the next week or so.

      1. I hope so as well. I typically do not pay attention to models outside of 120 hours. However, there are tell tale signs of the correct ingredients coming together in 24o hours. A dramatic pattern shift can result in such blockbusters coastal storms. We shall see.

          1. On the contrary John. The 12z GFS at 240 actually hints at this. I often do not write on this blog unless I see a weather pattern change favorable for snow. And I certainly don’t substantiate predictions based upon a “guess” like someone on this blog I know John;) LOL.

              1. Yes, I posted this exact same link earlier.

                However, the 12Z Euro does NOT support this.

                So we’ll just have to wait and see.

                😀

                1. You asked where the guidance was and that’s just one piece of evidence that is hinting at this event.

    3. line of showers moving through just outside of 495 right now. im not sure how much of it is falling

  25. GFS at 240 Hours. 😀

    Well, I suppose it could pass as guidance. I’d prefer to call it wishful thinking. 😀

    1. Anything that suggests snow in these parts would be considered wishful thinking OS;) You asked where the guidance was and you said you didn’t see it.

      1. 😀

        Sorry for any confusion. I clearly saw the GFS, but somehow
        I thought you were looking at something else. I just don’t trust the GFS that far out.

        Usually something happens when the arctic air is introduced,
        So there yet may be a storm, but in general the Euro is so much better that far out than the GFS.

        12Z GFS has a system, 12Z Euro has no sign of it whatsoever.

        So, if I had to chose, I’d certainly favor the Euro. Time will tell.
        😀

        1. You’re absolutely right. I’d favor the EURO as well. And I’m not saying that a coastal storm WILL happen and if it does happen, who says it will happen exactly at 240. It could be within a few days on either side. However, there will be a battle between the cold air intrustion and the warm air that is in place which “could” spawn coastal development. Obviously a lot has to happen in order for a major snow storm to impact our area. I’m just seeing growing signs of this event and unfortunately, the GFS hints at this as well. We shall see.

          1. 😀

            Oh, you certainly are correct. That is why I
            said there yet may be a storm.

            I’d just feel more confident if the Euro even
            hinted at it. It did yesterday for sure, but
            not today. AH perhaps the 0Z run tonight
            will bring it back on board?

            TK did mention that the models were going to have a tough time handling this transition to colder.

            Clearly with 10 or so days to go, Anything can still happen. Bleep loads of warm Gulf and Atlantic air and moisture out there. Hook that up with the intrusion of pure Arctic air as you suggest, are essential ingredients to a big storm. We just need the upper levels to cooperate to get this thing going.

            I look at the 500MB level (other levels as well, but primarily this level) for signs. The 500Mb chart for the Euro was very flat. Hope it is wrong.

            Let’s wait and see. 😀

            1. I certainly do not rely on models this far out. One model will be on board and then on the very next run, it will be lost. I look at the overall upcoming pattern and see an intrusion of cold air colliding with plentiful gulf and atlantic moisture as you stated. I think things become fun and active in a couple of weeks time.

              1. Hope you are correct. It may just get very interesting. We just need
                to get through this warm spell first.

                2. I’m not sure how you mean predictable. I know January thaw is typical but the warm temps preceding it are where I think the difference is.

                3. Vicki,
                  These temps aren’t even that warm. Some January thaws see temps in the 50’s/60’s and last much longer than what we will experience. We just forget.

                4. That wasn’t what I meant. Sorry. A thaw lasts maybe a week. What we have are weeks of temps jumping up above normal. I’m not sure this weather is really any different from what we are having all along. We are just giving it a name. Nothing is even frozen yet and we are nearing mid jan

              2. I agree. I remember in the late 60’s and early 70’s some winters with Jan. in the 60 degree mark. Today felt raw and chilly.

                1. I thought it felt chilly too even though we hit 44 – same as last several days. Maybe we are just used to the warmth 😉

                2. Temps may have been above normal. That’s just the pattern we are locked into. It by no means has been a thaw. We may get into the thaw for a few days before a colder and possibly snowier pattern takes over later in the month.

  27. I totally agree about pattern changes spawing potential storms. Can’t trust any models 240 hrs but rather look at the potential which I think we all see.

    1. Agree.

      Let’s sit back and watch. One of these days, perhaps one of the models
      will depict a blockbuster! 😀

    1. LOL. So I’m not crazy. That dark blue speck is right over where I live in Westwood where several inches of snow still remains but shrinking.

    1. Can you say PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST RIDGE?
      😀 😀 😀

      We’ll see if the cold air can push it aside.

    1. I own a couple of urgent care facilities in MA and in RI. I can tell you that influenza is extremely virulent this year. Many people who have had the flu shot are still being affected by the influenza virus due to vaccine resistant strains. All I can say is that it’s never too late to receive a flu shot. Many of my patients say that they don’t believe in the flu shot because it makes them sick. Only 10% of patients end up with “flu-like” illness as a result of the vaccination but it’s not nearly as potent as getting the actual influenza virus.

      1. I believe Boston declared a flu emergency. I think I read that the number of “identified” flu cases in Boston is up 10-fold over last year.

      2. Are you seeing people break thru the vaccine? My daughter is concerned because she is pregnant and as you know the flu is very serious for both mother and baby. We have all had shots – back in sept. my son doesn’t get it. He had a horrible reaction a few years ago and his dr advises him not to.

        1. I think I saw (on BZ) that about 10% or less of people who actually get the vaccine have come down with flu.

            1. P.S. Vicki. Many people believe that they will get the actual flu virus from the flu shot. This is incorrect. The virus received from a flu shot is dead and therefore people who become ill after receiving the vaccination do not actually have the flu. What they have is “flu-like” illness which will NOT be harmful to mom or baby should mom experience such affects from the shot. If mom does not receive the flu shot, she is at much greater risk from flu complications than she would be from vaccine complications.

              1. I tell that to people all the time who refuse to get their shots. I know its just my opinion but if you don’t have a legit reason I just don’t understand not getting the shot. I had the flu when I wasn’t getting the shots. It ain’t fun

                1. needle phobia. expecially if when you were younger someone dagged 3 needles in your armed and missed every time. then an other time as well. 4 times missed 😉

                2. i guess its time to get the flue vaccine 🙁 hate needles im getting better though im not making them have to hold me down. ;)… I hate the doctors 😉 expecially the ones that do not know what they are doin

          2. Correct Longshot. And those people do NOT come down with flu. They ail from “flu-like” illness which is far less virulent than if they got the influenza virus. Many of my patients this year who claimed they didn’t believe in the flu shot became believers–the hard way unfortunately.

        2. Everyone over the age of 6 months of age and especially the very young, the elderly and those who are immunocompromised should receive the flu vaccination. Mommy should receive the vaccination even though it’s a category C immunization during the third trimester. However, in her case, the pros far outweigh the cons. Those with egg allergies or severe prior reactions, as in the case with your son, should avoid the vaccination.

          The number of “confirmed” cases last year in the city of Boston alone was 70. This year, so far? 700 cases!

          1. Are u saying she should get the shot again? She’s due in April. Had the shot sept. odd but son doesn’t have an egg allergy. He’s not allergic to anything that we know of and eats everything.

            My grandson had the nasal vaccine two years ago and got the flu. My daughter now insists on vaccine.

            Thank you

            Are u seeing a lot of people who had the shot with the flu???

            1. Just saw your comment above. My grandson did test positive for flu 2 yrs ago when he had the nasal vaccine.

              1. Vicki. That is because the nasal spray flu vaccine contains the attenuated “live” virus. This method of vaccination works faster but also can come with a price–the flu! This is why, even in children who don’t like needles, I advise against the nasal spray and recommend the flu shot. Mommy does not need another flu shot if she received one in September. The antibodies against flu are circulating in the blood stream for 6 months.

                1. And yes, we are still seeing many patients this year who have had the flu shot still contract the influenza virus. The flu shot protects against many but not ALL influenza viruses as there are many subtypes of the virus.

              1. Matt. This according to the Center for Disease Control (CDC):

                In one large study among children aged 15-85 months, the seasonal nasal-spray flu vaccine LAIV (FluMist®) reduced the chance of influenza illness by 92% compared with placebo. In a study among adults, the participants were not specifically tested for influenza. However, the study found 19% fewer severe febrile respiratory tract illnesses, 24% fewer respiratory tract illnesses with fever, 23-27% fewer days of illness, 13-28% fewer lost work days, 15-41% fewer health care provider visits, and 43-47% less use of antibiotics compared with placebo.

                1. According to the CDC, FluMist nasal spray offers better protection against the flu than the traditional flu shot.

  34. I think any snow cover is going to make the air feel cooler, no matter what the temp. is. Wherever there is enough snow cover during the wknd., 60 degrees may not feel like 60 degrees. However, enough melting w/the 60 degrees and bare ground will make the air feel warmer, albeit will be a damp warmth.

    1. There’s not a thick snowcover across eastern mass and it’s gonna be gone or is already gone depending on where u live so I think we can’t rule it out

        1. Yes I did Vicki I’m sorry,, The definition of bare ground would be less than 30%, it’s tough as its patchy across your area but as u go east if will become very patchy and then as you come into Boston it’s bare and it’s bare across most of southeastern mass now, sorry about the mess I just wrote,, long day 🙂

          1. Why is 1/3 bare ground. Bare ground is bare ground. No wonder im confused. We are not patchy here unless someone has disturbed the snow cover such as kids playing. The lawns anywhere around here that have not been disturbed are 100% covered. Similar to those in wellesley I told you about earlier.

      2. Here in Sudbury, at least in our yard, there’s still a lot of snow. Well, I guess more snow than south of here! Kind of looking forward to a day or 2 of 60 degrees – would be nice for a change.

  35. Where I go alot from foxboro to wrentham to north attleboro I’d say between 25-30% snowcover, as u go north it becomes less patchy but south and east of me has alot of bare ground, even up in Marlboro I’m getting reports of about 2 inches left but natick is very very patchy, anyways we will all have bare ground soon enough 🙁

    1. Perhaps I am going by just my yard. Being out today, in the Natick area, I guess there wasn’t that much snow. Our house has a lot of trees. That could be why there is more snow here.

      2. Rainshine I drove down Rt 20 today. There was considerable snow all along in Sudbury and Marlboro. We don’t have trees in the front yards and they are all covered. Same in wellesley.

  36. I’ve been out most of the day but I just wanted to check in to say:

    MY FORECAST SUCKED today.

    Mostly sunny to partly cloudy?

    How about mostly cloudy with a period of rain in the afternoon? Sure thing TK! Better luck next time. 😉

  37. Mild evening with dewpoints in 30s …. It may be dark, but watch more snow melt in the next several hours than has the last couple days. In the last few hours, some snow on our front lawn literally vanished.

  38. Well, just another average January, heart of winter day. Cloud cover, little wind, some snowcover (see Charlie) and the temps managed to still get to the upper 30s to low 40s and based on obs, its almost getting a bit milder this evening.

    After the weekend warmth, the EURO’s 850mb temps dont get much colder than 0C through next Thursday. I see the arctic blast has returned on its 12z run leading into jext weekend. Ah…… I love the EURO, but, we’ll see.

    1. And that cold air next weekend will set the stage for a coastal storm around 1/19-1/21 period, give or take.

      2. I’m not sure why it is but it seems like every MLK weekend there is a snow threat. Last year we had a very cold weekend and snow on MLK evening. Weird.

  40. I’m officially calling my area snowless ik some have more than others but in general eastern mass or inside 495 is patchy and not far way from being bare ground, temp is 40 degrees!!

    1. Charlie I have to seriously disagree about inside 495. Your area can be what you want but I think it pulls back to inside 128. Husband drives down rt 30 two times a day and its about 75% minimum

      1. Really I was told north attleboro has bare ground, wrentham is also bare ground, goodnight all 🙂

        1. At 11:00 this morning you said Wrentham was 50% covered. I just don’t get that it is bare in a few hours. Have a good night also

    2. I have to disagree and aim close by. One side of my yard is completely snow covered still and one part of my roof is too.

    3. There are a whole lot of areas around Woburn with the ground still covered, and we’re inside 128. Exposed south-facing hillsides are bare. My friend on the western side of the city has 5 inches in her back yard on a slightly north-facing slope.

  41. Alisonarod. Thank you so much for your information. I know its not weather related but its really important. My daughter asked me to thank you as well

  42. Its not going to cool off much tonight ….

    8pm obs…..

    Burlington, VT : 43F ……..Watertown, NY : 40F ……Buffalo, NY : 39F

  44. Anybody read Pete B’s blogg pretty interesting. I would say he is a believer in man made global warming. He pretty much says the climate will never be the same as the past, and cold weather will eventually be a thing of the past. At least that’s how I took it

    2. I’ll disagree with him strongly.

      The climate may be milder than it has been in the past but there are still large year-to-year differences. These are what make up long-term averages.

      I think if we went to visit Asia right now and asked them about their snowcover and temperatures this winter, there would be a different tune playing. It’s a weather pattern that is causing our weather this year. The same weather pattern that is causing their harsh winter. As far as long-term trends, that’s still open to debate and impossible to prove on either side as most of us agree.

      But he is reacting to the fact we had “no winter” last year and have had it relatively easy so far this winter. I worked with the State Climatologist for 15 years and I can assure you, making assumptions about long term climate based on a few winters (not even taking into account all 4 seasons) is a big mistake. 🙂

      That would be like me saying that horrendously chilly/wet June/July a few years ago is a sure sign the climate will never be the same and all summers will now be largely cool and wet.

        1. The problem is that I don’t think it’s based on a few winters. It’s been different now for years. I think its so gradual that people don’t notice. And I think there is so much attention paid to numbers that we don’t focus on why the numbers don’t add up.

          I may not agree with Charlie on the “line” but I sure do when he says we cannot do all we have to our planet and not affect it. An opinion ……. Maybe im right. Maybe im not. But and its a big but…..And as I’ve said repeatedly it is a given that it won’t hurt to take steps. But it may if we don’t.

          1. Pete is a FB friend. I may ask him about what he bases that blog off of. See if I can get it right from the source. 🙂

              1. He may be. I have great respect for Pete, and all those media guys. Not an easy position to be in.

  45. Anybody read Pete B’s blogg pretty interesting. I would say he is a believer in man made global warming. He pretty much says the climate will never be the same as the past, and cold weather will eventually be a thing of the past. At least that’s how I took it

  46. January 9 2012: 14.7% of the USA with 1 or more inch of snow on the ground.

    January 9 2013: 46.6% of the USA with 1 or more inch of snow on the ground.

    This is not the same winter as last winter.

    1. Agreed. But it’s not the same one where ponds were frozen in November with exceptions. It’s the one where they are now unfrozen with exceptions.

      Are you tossing me off the blog :). If so, I promise to behave. Although Mac would warn you I can typically only behave for short periods 🙂 🙂

      1. I wouldn’t dream of tossing you.

        I’m a big fan and I love the contributions you make here.

        We don’t have to see eye to eye on everything to have a great time chatting about weather. 🙂

  47. Off to sleep now and TK I totally respect everyone’s opinion. Always have and always will. And you know I have the utmost respect for you period. I also know I could be very very wrong and hope I am

    I do promise to behave tomorrow though. Really :D.

  48. The 67% percent snowcover over the US on January 1 2013 was the most snow on the ground on for the date in the last decade.

    Of the last 10 years on January 1, the top 3 most extensive snowcovers were during the last 4 years (2010, 2011, and 2013).

    Also, as the atmosphere goes through cycles (QBO, PDO, AO, etc), so does the ocean. The North Atlantic waters have been in a warm phase for the past decade, which goes a long way into explaining the warmth in the water available for the medium scale circulation changes to bring warmer water toward the coast.

    1. I agree, and even if man is having an influence, it’s far overshadowed by the influence of that middle sized nuclear furnace sitting in the middle of the solar system.

      How do you suppose the known polar ice-free periods before we were around took place? And the ice ages? The sun goes through giant swings in intensity over long periods of time – much longer than we could measure in thousands of generations. It is the cause of all of our climate indices. It drives them all, directly or indirectly. The sun gave this planet its birth and will also be the cause of its death. It’s got far more say in what goes on with this place’s weather than we’ll ever have.

      1. I am with you on this one TK…totally agree. I might be of the minority opinion here, but I think it’s a bit “pompous” of us (humans) to think we could have such an influence. We live in a very rapid, fast-food mentality…these cycles take hundred – thousands – of years to develop and run their course. Two mild winters doesn’t mean we’ll never have “old school” winters again. A few years ago we were buried in snow!

        What I don’t get is…when the whole man-made global warming thing started, we were being told winters as we know them will be gone. Then when we have abnormally heavy winters, they say that’s also because of global warming. Well…which one is it? 🙂

  50. The coldest part of winter occurs between Jan. 10 – Feb. 10…starting tomorrow as of this posting. 🙂

  51. This is definitely a different winter, this one is worst than last year for snow lovers especially on the coast. By the end of January last year, Boston recorded 7.8″ of snow. Currently they have received 3.8″ to date. Do you see 4″ or more by the end of the month.

    Also, it’s funny to see Charlie spinning everyone with his “Snow will be gone by tomorrow” act.

    1. I guess a watcher for MLK weekend, and it will be cold enough as next thursday looks to be very cold. Time will tell.

  52. I wonder how everyone’s snowcover fared overnight …curious to see some results…..

    This past summer, we were camping out in Ithica, NY. It was mid July, during one of the hottest stretches of the summer.

    Most campgrounds are located in areas centered in or surrounded by miles of forest. This campground was the first one I’ve stayed in that, in one or two miles, went from forest to city (downtown Ithica).

    So, it was a blazing hot day. I think Boston hit 96F and Syracuse was over 100F. At 4pm, we were riding around, and in Ithica, it was 100F …. and by the time we drove 2 miles to the campground, it was 91F. You could feel a difference.

    It struck me then how much the normal, expected, reasonable development by human beings could affect temperatures. Pavement, heat absorbing buildings, etc have to be having some small effect on absorbing more of old Sols energy than if the ground was its natural green color. Combine that with the undeniable slow increasing of CO2 in the atmosphere and that self sense of very subtle changes in the weather I see now and I’ll admit that in the last several months, my belief in global warming has strengthened significantly.

    Have a good day all !

    1. Took three measurements Tom and average depth is 8″. (and that’s on the south side too)

      I’ll post it again by Sunday afternoon. Our snowcover here tends to take a while to melt away without mild rain or humid days with a nice southerly wind.

      2. Wow all bare ground here, it’s like springtime out here, and I just got back from Dedham and they have more lawns than snow so less than 50% , it’s completely bare here in foxboro too, maybe 10-20% coverage

    2. Agreed Tom. I have only looked out the back but we definitely had melting during the night. I see the first signs on our side north facing and our neighbors yard that is untouched by playing kids.

  53. Question for Alisonarod…

    There’s a flu-like virus going around my office, and about a third of the staff (at least 15 people) are sick or recovering. This seems like the flu, minus a fever. Is there something going around now- a rhinovirus or adenovirus or ? that is severe like the flu? People are spending 2-3 days in bed. These are all folks 30-60 years old who say they did have the flu shot.

    Just wondering. I have not been sick (yet).

    Thanks!

    1. Amy my husband has the same thing going around his office. Some did have the flu shot but others didn’t. And the age range is the same also.

      1. Vicki – I got the flu shot some years ago, and after a few hours I developed a fever of 99.8 and I felt lousy all night. The next day I was fine. What symptoms did your son have from his flu shot?

          1. He and my youngest daughter had similar reactions but his was far more severe. He had a very high fever for about 4-5 days, horrible sores in his mouth and on his throat. Nasty aches. It was a very years ago so I don’t remember all of the symptoms but those were the worst. My daughter’s were similar and the mouth and throat sores lasted a long while but her fever wasn’t as high or as prolonged. Daughter has not had any problems with the shot since.

            1. Thanks, Vicki. My husband always gets the shot ’cause he has a lot of medical problems. I haven’t got a shot yet – am considering it. Yesterday at the market someone was coughing all over the store – wasn’t really near the person but germs can travel. Wish people would cover their mouths!

                2. hahaha – rainshine – I hold my breath and wave my arms 🙂 So now who is silly? I also carry sanitizer and use it in public places. I am a self admitted germ-a-phobe!

              2. That is the most common way to transmit the virus thru coughing or sneezing. A single cough or sneeze can fill an entire room with respiratory droplets. Each droplet contains the virus which then spreads to all of the people in that room. You may not see the respiratory droplets from such a single sneeze or cough but it is microscopically present in order of hundreds of thousands in which people then inhale.

                1. The most common flu vaccine out there is Fluzone. We actually over ordered here at the clinic this year and still ran out back in November or early Decemeber. We’ve now gone with another vaccine and are ordering at the rate of 500 doses every week. The problem with this other vaccine is that they have nothing for patients under 4 and it is not Thimerosal free. It’s still going to be a rocky ride for the next 6-8 weeks.

    2. Yeah I got the flu toward the end of November. I had all the symptoms..Fever(104 temp), chills, sore throat, aches, etc and I had the flu shot go figure…

    3. Amy,

      The flu shot helps to immunize against the influenza virus. However, because there are so many subtypes of the virus, it is impossible to formulate a vaccine to prevent ALL subtypes of the virus. This is why some people are still getting the flu despite receiving the flu vaccine.

      If there is no fever, they do not have the influenza virus. Fever is the hallmark of the virus. With that said, there are many other types of “flu-like” illnesses out there that can make people very sick. There are hundreds of thousands of viruses and subtypes of such viruses out there. There is no cure for a virus. Unfortunately it needs to run its course. Tamiflu is prescribed for the influenza virus but not other viruses such as the ones you named (adeno, rhino, noro, etc). All one can do is practice universal precautions and wash hands, keep hands away from one’s face, and remain isolated, if possible, from those who are ill.

      This year is particularly bad not just with influenza, but other flu-like viruses as well. Good luck. I hope you dodge the bullet.

      1. This flu outbreak is a real concern for me. My mom was just diagnosed with MDS and started Chemo last Monday. She is having the chemo shot for 7 days straight and then off for 3 weeks until May. She will not have a immune system during her treatment and it would be disastrous if she caught the flu.

        1. coastal – hope your mother stays flu-free. Also, not sure what MDS is but my prayers and thoughts are with her.

        2. Coastal I wish the very best for your mom and will keep her in my thoughts and prayers. I send big hugs to you and your family as well.

  54. Good morning all.

    Wow, what a mild night. Lost a good deal of snow cover just overnight.

    In my area of JP, about 50% snow coverage as of 8AM this morning.
    As I drove to work, Eastern areas of JP we almost totally bare. Amazing
    what a difference in a mile or 2. Office in Roxbury, bare ground.

    I have a couple of goodies to post following….

    1. OMG – phenomenal and terrifying. You can hear the breathing of the photographer increase as the person begins to step onto the rope.

  56. The Charlie line swept through Easton overnight as it took no prisoners and left behind a desolate dull landscape of dormant vegetation and white capped sides of driveways and roads 😉

    1. Seems as if they agree with me that a battle between the cold and warm airmasses could created a nice event sometime around the 20th or shortly thereafter.

  58. I looked over all of the models.

    First of all, the Euro and GFS look to support a mostly RAIN event for the
    15th/16th time frame. Canadian depicts a snowier scenario. I’d lean towards
    RAIN at this point, but we’ll watch.

    Seconddly, both the Euro and GFS have nothing for the 19th-21st time frame, while
    the Canadian “hints” at perhaps something substantial around the 21st or so.

    Oh well, more waiting.

    1. Hints are all that is necessary this far out. Something is a brewing and like I said. It may not occur during the 19-21st. It could occur within a day or two outside of that window.

  59. Looks like I sparked quite a discussion about the Flu. Hope folks didn’t/don’t mind.

    I have never received a Flu shot, never.

    I rarely come down with the Flu. The last full blown, definite serious Flu I had
    was in 1980. Sure I have had several bouts with colds and other flu-like illnesses, but
    NOT the full-blown all-out Flu.

    Knock, knock, knock on Wood.

    My immune system is very good and I have been extremely lucky.

    I hope it STAYS that way.

    May NONE of you get ill.

    Have a great day. 😀

    1. Thanks, OS – and I’m glad you started the discussion It’s definitely worthwhile! And I sure appreciate alisonarod’s input.

    3. I’ll never get a flu shot. Every year we have a “flu season” and every year like clockwork (1) it’s like people never heard of the flu before and panic ensues and (2) there is always some big scare/hype about it. I believe the body has all it needs to fight that off, it just takes time. Personally I have issues with what they put in the shots, and also how they don’t cover all strain and often are behind the new ones anyway. My two cents.

      1. Many of my patients have said the same thing in the past until they learn the hard way and actually get the influenza virus. Your fortunate you haven’t had it. Believe me, if you ever get it, you’ll change your mind real quick about the flu shot. Not to mention, I would hardly call 18 deaths from the flu so far this season in the city of Boston alone “hype.”. It’s real, it’s out there and hopefully it won’t affect you or your loved ones. Just my two cents;)

        1. I never said it wasn’t real. I’m saying it’s not some “man made” thing we NEED a shot for. We evolved to fight it…I’ve had it before and certainly don’t want it again nor do I want any one else to have it. Some people might need a shot for sure. I am a bit of an independent health researcher…love this stuff and love learning more about it. It doesn’t take long to see that we really DON’T know a lot about these things (not just this but all facets of health).

          I also have an issue with what’s in it…namely mercury. In the past, they’ve also contained detergents and formaldehyde. My wife and I battle this every year as we have two kids..whether or not to give them the shot. I have found that limiting exposure to sick people and keeping your hands clean, etc., is very effective against many things.

          “[The CDC] only choose three to five strains of influenza A out of 250-plus strains, and they take only two or three influenza B strains out of 75-100 that are out there at any one time. If they don’t guess the right one, you’re going to get sick. You’re putting your faith in the CDC’s ability to guess the one that might be a pandemic.”

          1. Immunocompromised patients, the elderly, infants and pregnant people do not “evolve” to fight it. These people are at great risk of developing life threatening complications. Not everyone “fights off” the flu. Believe me, I’ve a provider in an emergency department for over 11 years. Unfortunately, I’ve cared for people who have died from influenza. How many people have you cared for that died from influenza? I will agree with you on one point. People do NOT need to panic. They just need to be aware. It’s all about health awareness and education to help prevent the spread of disease. I will also repeat myself, if you ever get the influenza virus or if a loved one suffers from life threatening complications from the virus, you will feel quite differently about vaccination. The literature clearly suggest that the benefit of immunization far outweighs the risk. We can agree to disagree;)

            1. Indeed. 🙂 I appreciate your opinion…you are on the front lines. I love to look at accepted/mainstream ideas…rip them apart…and see if the pieces fit together again.

          2. The mercury based ingredient in the flu vaccine is called thimerosal. I’m quite familiar with it. It is used to prevent the growth of germs, bacteria and fungi, that can contaminate the vials which would lead to harmful and life threatening effects. There is a large body of scientific evidence on the safety of thimerosal. Data from several studies show that low doses of thimerosal in vaccines do not cause harm, and are only associated with minor local injection site reactions like redness and swelling at the injection site. The likelihood of harmful effects from this preservative are superceded many-fold by the harmful effects of not receiving the shot. Again, my two cents.

        2. And I’ve heard from various sources in the industry and other health care facilities (I purchase for a large clinic south of the city) is that the normal coverage (in terms of what strains they hope to stop with this year’s vaccine) was off from previous years. This flies in the face of the “official” take on it that I’ve been reading about in the papers. I trust my sources but who knows.

          1. Keith – common sense (if it can be used in this case) dictates that the vaccine didn’t hit the mark. Not with this many cases. But it may still protect So if you tell a person who thinks he/she doesn’t need the shot that the shot isn’t working quite as expected, he/she won’t get the shot. Even if it will help somewhat. That’s why I am guessing health officials are not being 100% above board.

            1. Let’s put it this way. If no one were to get the flu shot this past season, then the flu epidemic would have been much greater resulting in more cases of influenza and more unfortunate deaths. It’s not a perfect vaccine but it’s better than receiving nothing at all.

          2. I believe it. I was reading today that many of the people who are getting sick have already had the shot for the season.

  60. Alisonarod – my husband has been getting a flu shot regularly for 30 yrs. He has a very impaired immune system (pituitary tumor; crohn’s disease, etc.). He wants me to ask if he is more at risk or less at risk for getting a flu because of all the shots?

    1. You could have had a flu shot each year for 100 years. The risk does not change. The flu shot only works for 6 months because circulating antibodies against the influenza virus are only present in one’s body for 6 months. After 6 months, immunity against flu diminishes rapidly. Each year, new strains of the flu appear due to mutations in the virus. Hence, a new flu vaccine concoction to cover such strains is made annually by manufacturers. The vaccination cannot prevent ALL flu subtypes but does fight off many of them wish is why some people still get influenza despite receiving the shot or spray. You do not build up an immunity to the influenza virus for much more than 6 months at a time. Therefore, it is recommended to receive the vaccine each year.

      2. Thanks alisonarod – I had noticed you said 6 months yesterday. I always preferred to wait until October and even early Nov but my doctor told me a year ago I should have it in September. She said the H1N1 tended to show up earlier in the season which is why she was recommending an earlier shot. I ended up having mine later into Oct this year b/c I couldn’t get to the dr but my daughters OB/GYN had her have the shot in Sept. I guess I don’t understand why that early. When the baby is due she’ll be past the six month.

        1. September is way too early since immunity only lasts 6 months. Receiving a flu shot in September will only last until March and often times, influenza is just winding down in March. In New England, typically flu season begins in earnest in December. This is why I recommend to my patients to receive the vaccine no early than November 1st. Once receiving the shot, however, it does take 2 weeks to fully become immunized. Therefore, I wouldn’t recommend receiving the vaccine much past mid November. Of course, in some cases where some folks have really compromised immune systems, September would be acceptable as long as he/she receives a second shot 6 months later to cover them during the latter portion of the season. As for H1N1, typically that is a warm weather influenza subtype and often can be present as early as spring. However, fortunately for us, H1N1 has diminished considerably.

  61. I was in bed with 100-102 temp for five full days along with a litany of other miserable and quite painful symptoms with that flu. I’m back at work not but still not at full charge.

    I had the flu shot back in October too. first one I’ve ever had. Lotta good it did.

    Good luck to any of you who get the full brunt of this. It really sucked.

  62. Did anyone hear the wind during the middle of the night? It was really roaring around 3 or 4 in the morning. More snow has melted in our yard but there are still snowbanks. Rumors are for possibility of more cold weather end of nxt. wk.

      1. Well that was for retrac but I was going to answer you about the wind.

        I was awake for a while around 2:30 or so listening to it. It was roaring as you said. I do love the wind. I ended up getting up to plug in my iPad so it would be fully charged just in case we lost power. JR said it would continue to be windy this morning and breezy this afternoon but I’d say it’s just breezy now with a few stronger gusts…..at least here.

  63. Can someone post the map where it shows snow on ground?? I’m got no snow in na foxboro or wrentham, I was just in these towns so ik there bare

  64. I’m thinking the Charlie line goes from 128 to Norwood to northwest ri, if your not bare already u folks out by 495 belt will be bare ground also

      1. Still two inches on the ground. A few bare spots showing but still plenty of snow cover in Westwood. Definitely lots of melting occurred over the past 24 hours but still aways to go till completely bare.

  65. Every year since 2001 I have gotten my flu shot. I used to think it was just for seniors but every person from 6 months of age and up should get theirs. If you get sick soon after the shot…you were probably already sick or on the way when you received it. This is why everyone should get the shot no later than October before cold temps set in. I am wondering if it may be too late by now although I have heard doctors on TV say it is never too late. I used to hear that those who get the shot but still get sick usually end up with just a nasty cold at worst as opposed to the full blown flu.

  66. More bare ground this morning so there was definitely overnight snowmelt here in Dorchester. However, there is still snowcover left in sheltered locations such as it is.

    It is amazing how low the sun angle is still this time of year. Sunrise is only 1 minute earlier at 7:12 am.

    1. I agree. I noticed a huge difference this morning.
      At 11:30 PM it was still 45 last night and at 7AM it was 41.
      Snow melted all night.

  67. I would like to make a suggestion for those here who make wx observations:

    Please give your specific location (city, town, etc.). I do know where many of you live by now but there are still some who post here that I don’t. Just a precious few miles can make all the difference in terms of temps, sky cover and precip on any given day.

    Thanks! 🙂

  69. Here in billerica i have to say there is up to 5 inches through out the town. I asked 4 different people. one by the train station 2-4 inches one in western Billerica 3 to 5 inches, one in nuttings lake 3 inches One in east Billerica up to 2 inches and here in my back yard it ranges from bare ground to 2 to 3 inches…. snow is melting from left to right in my back yard. But i think by the end of this weekend only some spotty area will see snow cover in my area but it will be patchy.

  70. I guess the Charlie line is different, the line separates solid snowcover and then patchy and bare ground, that line runs from between the 128/495 belt southward, to be detailed wrentham has alot of bare areas, it does have some patchy snows in the shady areas and of course, this i consider bare,, I’m not talking about snow banks that r piled up in parking lots, north attleboro is bare in most sunny and shady areas, have a good day everyone 🙂

  72. awwwwww Rex Trailer passed away. I think there are several of us here who remember sitting in front of the TV every Saturday and Sunday to watch his show!

    1. Made me think of the movie, Big Miracle. It was a great movie although I believe took some liberties with the story.

  74. could we make the charlie line a little easier
    1 . bare ground no snow
    2 bare with patches of snow up to 2 inches ( charlie line) less than 50%
    3 bare spots with 50-70% snow cover
    4 mainly snow covered with maybe some bare spots in the woods 70-90%
    5 snow covered 90% to 100%

    tell me what you think 🙂 did i nail what the charlie line stands for

      1. I didn’t know it could happen but I saw it happen —- or did I — on the charts………………POOF

        1. Is that dip off of NC coast where it should be? Trying to see if I can read this more than if I understand it.

          1. Yes, pretty much I guess. I just don’t understand it. I’m hoping TK can chime in and educate us.

            I wonder if there was some sort of glitch OR the atmosphere is really predicted to make that much of a change in 24 hours???

            😀

              1. It’s that trough that seems to disappear that threatens NE. That is what I’ve been seeing. It doesn’t just vanish so not sure why the EURO depicts that 24 hours later.

                1. I agree. It would have been that trough, in conjunction with the Arctic Air meeting with warm/moist Gulf then Atlantic air that would have ignited the storm we’ve been discussing. What happened?

            2. I would have guessed blip/glitch but as you know I can just barely (and that’s stretching it) read the charts. I love trying though and really enjoy when you post three links in a row so I can see how something progresses.

              1. It appears the EURO takes it out to sea but there is no way that storm makes up that much ground in just 24 hours for it to just disappear off the map. Clearly there are signals of a potential storm.

                1. The EURO depicts a northwest flow allowing for the intrustion of artic air. This “could” steer the southern jet out to sea. We need the southern jet to buckle to allow storms to crawl up the coast.

    1. I would certainly appear that way. Pretty much what TK was saying all along.
      Any storm development would be shunted out WELL south of here.

      Didn’t he say something like Kiss Em Good-bye? 😀

      That 500MB chart was a dramatic demonstration of just that.

      I think my Ugh meter just broke again. 😀

      1. That’s almost 2 weeks away. And again, that is only if the cold air intrustion is as strong as only some models suggest.

            1. There is clearly a storm out there 10 days out. Will it move up the coast or OTS? That’s still in question.

  80. I would not hold your breath on winter storms coming, or even truly Arctic air. I have seen this play out way too often in recent times. A predicted Arctic invasion turns out to be nothing more than seasonable weather at best. This is what I think will happen by the end of next week.

    By the way, the cold air (unseasonably so) has invaded Western Europe or is in the process of doing so (literally as we speak as the wind direction is changing from W/SW to N/NE and will further shift to E/SE and stay that way for the foreseeable future. The latest from the Dutch weather service (knmi.nl) suggests a relatively prolonged period of sustained cold, but not brutal cold. Nevertheless, as I have said on this blog before, any time it is unseasonably cold in Holland it is almost always unseasonably mild here. That inverted pattern shows up every winter. It even shows up during the spring and summer months. When we have cut-off Lows in the spring bringing rain and cool temperatures, for instance, it is usually beautiful in Holland (no rain, warmer than usual). When we have our prevailing southwesterly in summer and it is hot and sunny, it is usually rainy and cool in Holland. There is a weaker statistical correlation between the weather in Holland and the Pacific Northwest. For example, if it is nice and sunny in Seattle (which does not happen that often) it is usually nice in Amsterdam at the same time.

      1. Josh,
        Let’s hope you’re right about the lack of true artic air. A true artic outbreak will shunt storms out to sea. A looser artic airmass could allow for storms to steer up the coast;)

        1. Agreed that too much cold would not be good for storm development as it would shunt storms out to sea. If I remember correctly in February of 1979 we had a serious Arctic outbreak that froze rivers, ponds, and parts of the harbor. Yet, we had no storms, and this lasted several weeks. If someone remembers that February and thinks I have the wrong year in mind, please let me know. It may be one of the few prolonged periods of Arctic cold I have experienced in February in SNE. As I recall, March of 1979 was unseasonably mild and had lots of rain events and no snow at all.

          1. Yes, I DO remember that period. I remember driving down t0 Hull, specifically Nantasket Beach and it was the ONLY time in my entire life that I witnessed the Ocean Frozen to at least 1/2 mile out from shore. Truly an amazing site.

            I believe that year they had to use Ice Breakers to open up Nantucket sound for ships to deliver supplies to Nantucket Island.

            😀

  81. Of all the days above normal since Dec. 1st, today has to take the case.

    A fairly strong northwest wind flow and its 47F in Boston on Jan. 10th……. 47F, not because of a warm sector, not because of a storm to our west, 47F with a wind out of southeast Canada behind a departing, intensifying storm.

    I think Joshua is correct above. I can see things ending up where one day spends its highs in the low to mid 20s, a day on each side of that very cold day that are around 32F and then the cold will retreat once again.

  82. I was reading several blog posts from yesterday or the day before and noticed Old Salty corrected me on something I had said about Greenland. OS is right that there is evidence that Greenland was green at one time, probably at least 125,000 years ago. I stated – and was wrong in doing so – that Greenland was never green. My point was that when the Norse and Danish settlers first came upon Greenland they did not encounter a green place, with the exception of the southern coastal areas. So, their naming of the island – Greenland – was not related to the island’s hue at the time or its greenness.

    1. Yes, I agree with you 100% about the naming. Frankly, I didn’t know the correct answer until I researched it and just reported the research.
      😀

  84. I think the cold is coming and will stick around for a while with maybe a day here or there a little warmer. But I think its gets cold enough to shunt most everything south. We shall see I guess.

      3. I’m going to try this – please bear with me 🙂 The top red line (10) is the 10 degree C (50F) line. The blue line above which as you said runs right through Boston is the freezing line at 5000 feet. The blue line above that is -10C

        Sorry if I got that all messed up but curious to know how messed up it was ??

        1. Vicki,

          On that particular chart, the temperatures with
          the blue and red lines are 10M temperature or temperature at about 37 feet above the ground.
          One has to read the title of the chart and the key to know what the lines mean.

          So on that chart the blue line through Boston represents
          the freezing line (0C or 32F) at 10 meters above the ground. Most times, we’ll take that as the surface temperature. In radiational cooling situations, the ground temperature may be somewhat lower, but in
          most cases, it is essentially the same.

          The next blue line above is -10C, the next -20C and the next -30. The first red line is +10 C and the next +20C.

          Hope this helps. 😀

          1. OS,

            Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure that the winds are at 10m above the surface on this particular map and that temps are reflected at 2m above the surface.

            1. In other words, that is a surface map that demonstrates winds in knots at 10m above the surface, precip. in inches and temps in celcius at 2m above the surface.

            2. Yes, you are correct! If I took the time
              to look at the legend before I responded,
              I would have gotten correct.

              Winds at 10M, Temperature at 2M.

              Sorry about that.

          2. Ahh so I had the temps correct and the freezing line but not above ground. Thanks. I’m going back to look.

            1. I got it. At the bottom it says 10m wind and 2m temp. Thanks. Ill get there. ………slowly and with a lot of help from all of you which I really appreciate

Comments are closed.