Sun Loss, Temp Gain

174 Comments

10:55PM

And so begins a week-long pattern transition, much of it without a whole lot of sunshine.  The mild stretch of weather will be coming to an end but that will take time. We’ll go through some unsettled weather to get from it to the onset of another stretch of cold weather.

A low pressure area will pass west of New England late Friday with a warm front moving into the region. This front will slow down and briefly stall for a while on Saturday with a little wave of low pressure along it. Some wet weather will move in late Friday and linger to early Saturday. The clouds will dominate the weekend, even when the warm air finally moves in full force on Sunday.

A transition to colder weather will take place during the Monday-Wednesday period, which will be unsettled, as a series of cold fronts moves through the region slowly, along with waves of low pressure moving up along it. Most of the precipitation will likely fall is rain but some mix/snow may also occur, depending on the regional temperature profile.

By late in the week, mainly dry and much colder weather will be in control as the jet stream finally shifts enough to let some very cold air out of Canada and into New England.

Detailed forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the lower 20s inland valleys to lower 30s coast. Wind W shifting to N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 38-43. Wind NE up to 10 MPH shifting to SE late.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain, but freezing rain pockets are possible over portions of northwestern Middlesex County MA and south central NH early. Areas of fog developing. Lows 32-37. Wind SE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog  and a chance of drizzle especially in the morning. Highs from near 40 Merrimack Valley near the MA/NH border to near 50 in southern MA and RI. Wind up to 10 MPH from the E in southern NH and northeastern MA and from the SE to S elsewhere.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-55. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 50.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or mix. Low 33. High 43.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 20. High 33.

174 thoughts on “Sun Loss, Temp Gain”

  3. Thanks TK !

    Mt. Washington, from 6pm last night to 5am this morning, has seen its temp rise from 10F to 27F.

    Because the EURO’s NAO predicted values are more consistent for the 3rd or 4th straight run and look believable, I think its giving a more reasonable version of the coming cold.

    Some thoughts…..

    Next Wednesday is now looking like a high of 40F.

    Ahead of the main surge of the cold, the winds will turn W-SW briefly, so maybe 40F again next Friday ?

    Two very cold days to follow before the winds turn southerly during later Sunday, early Monday ahead of a low approaching from the Great Lakes. Maybe a little warm advection snow ?

    So, slowly, I think the models are saying less intense on the depth of the extreme cold and are eating away at its edges.

  5. Today marks 3 weeks past the Winter Solstice. In 3 weeks, the sun has climbed little, just 1.8 degrees.

    However, in the next week alone, it will climb 1.3 degrees and the azimuth rise and daily light gain will continue to increase more quickly throughout the latter half of January and into February.

    Data from Taunton NWS sun and moon page.

    Happy Friday all !

      1. There was a little bit of sunset color near the horizon when I walked out of work at 5 last night. There’s hope for that increasing daylight!

  7. Wow!!! That cold is not as persistent as 1st was a wk ago on models , happy Friday!!! 48hrs till kickoff!!

    1. Now that’s Friday morning humor. Now I see where you got your 48 hours until snow is gone 😉 It wasn’t the line, it was the clock 😆

  8. Thanks, TK.

    I am kind of glad to see the days starting to get longer. I am starting to notice it especially towards sunset.

    1. In the first days of February, sunrise starts to be before 7 with sunset after 5, and the world begins to feel less dark. January is not my favorite month… too much cold and dark.

      2. I agree – however, I like the change of seasons. Yes, I prefer the longer days of summer to the dark days of winter. But, around Christmas time I love the lights at night. Also, by the time spring comes around, we appreciate the warmth and the length of daytime. If it stayed the same yr. round, it would be boring, to me, anyway – no matter how sometimes I like to fantasize about moving to some place where it’s summer all the time! 🙂

        1. I love the changes too. In spring, when the New England is waking up, I love the anticipation of the longer days. Someone one without the other would seem to me as if something is missing. I can say the reverse for fall when the New England goes to sleep and we move to longer nights.

          1. Good grief – I should have read before I posted…. for a start – someone is supposed to be somehow…..

          2. Tried to put a smiley face on your comment, too, Vicki but system wouldn’t let me – said I already said that! So, here’s a smiley face for you, too! 🙂

          3. I like it but I don’t think it as New England falling a sleep or waking up but I like it, new England’s always up and awake 🙂

        2. Part of me likes the darkness and cold of winter. I look at it as the earth regenerating and re-energizing itself. Just like we all need sleep to stay fresh and keep our bodies and minds healthy. I feel like it gives spring more meaning too. Everything is new in the spring, the flowers grow up from the ground, buds then leaves grow on the trees. Everything is fresh and gives the feeling of a new beginning every spring.

  11. I found this funny comment on AccuWeather on their artic air coming…HAHA…

    “Are they going to start naming cold snaps now? Is this Artic Air Andrew?”

    1. 😀

      Well it seems Accu Weather thinks that TWC is off their rocker! 😀

      The naming of Winter storms is INSANE!!!

      Hey the next East Wind we can Name CHARLIE. 😀

      1. This was a user comment in the Comments section but it was funny. I wouldn’t be surprised! Maybe they will name Heat Waves this summer…Heat Wave Marvin or something.

  12. Although this Winter is clearly different than last, it’s still the same as far as I am concerned. A total BUST! 😀

    Bring on SPRING. I’m ready.

    1. Funny it smelled like Spring in the afternoon yesterday when I took a quick walk outside. The exposed dirt had that fresh smell.

  13. What bothers me – I have said this before – is to even call next week’s forecasted two-day `cold snap’ an Arctic invasion. Come on. It may be slightly below normal (finally!) for a couple of days next week, followed by the same old pattern of above normal temperatures. In fact, I think we’ll see 40s by late January/early February once again on a very regular basis. In my humble view, winter is done, unfortunately. It never really got started and now it is really running out of time and gas. My prediction of the Charles freezing over did not happen. I think my prediction of 27 inches of snow (was that my prediction) will not happen. The ice that did form on the Charles is already broken up. And even if it gets cold in February, with the sun angle, it will be hard for ice to re-form. Sad. But, I could move north. For the past couple of years I have been applying for jobs up in Maine, as far north as Presque Isle, and also in Quebec City. I feel I need to have cold and snow, and lots of it.

    1. I agree with you. We are getting so accustomed to the warmer snaps throughout the winter that it seems any temps close to what would have been typical years ago are arctic cold. Years ago they would have been winter weather.

  14. We are roughly half way through meteorological winter and Boston has received 3.8″ of snow. They received .4″ before December 1st and a mere 3.4″ since. We have roughly 45 to 50 days to go before meteorological spring. I know some people say they it can snow until the end of April or could argue spring does not start until the third week of March. But it does not look good for snow. I am almost at that point where I will start routing to break the record for least snowiest winter. Almost.

    1. I’m with you Coastal. Stick a Fork in it. It’s done! 😀

      Record least snowy Winter! Yeah, that’s the ticket! 😀

      1. Me too and then that person who listed 18.3 inches would get the prize. What is the prize by the way??? An all expense paid trip to……………….. 😉

    2. There is a correlation between the amount of snow Logan gets in December and the final snow total for the winter season. Below normal snow in December almost always translates into below normal for the season and vice versa. I looked up the stats going back to the 1890-1891 winter which is 121 years. I would say that Logan is pretty much assured of a below normal winter snowfall for the 2012-13 season but it is now just a matter of “how much” below?… 🙁

      Boston snow for December 2012 = 3.8″
      Normal for December = 7.0″

      Btw, the correlation works 75% of the time…91 of the past 121 years.

        1. Thanks. I didn’t mind that winter actually. Not a snow nut, but don’t hate it either. After the winter prior I took that as a gift. I remember fueling up the snow thrower in late October and never using it until I ran the gas out in March.

  19. The Charlie line is just south and east of wachusett mountain, the completely bare line is continuing to stay between 128 and 495, have friends visiting from St. Louis ugh!! They keep asking any snow here or gonna be here and I have to keep repeating myself no, they get in at 5:15 woohoo not 🙂 have a good day everyone

    2. That would be a nice little surprise! Just wish it wasnt so far away. There has been consistency in the GFS though with at least something in the 1/20 timeframe, give or take a day or 2.

      2. Yes, the Middle East did get snow. It has been quite cold in that part of the world. But, I must say I was a little irritated at the New York Times reporting of the snow in Jerusalem. They reported it as an extreme anomaly, which it really is not! It definitely happens from time to time. Unusual, yes. Extreme, no! And, in the caption to a picture of snow in the holy city they almost seemed to suggest the snow in Jerusalem was connected to global warming. I am sorry, but for someone like myself who believes in global warming, such a spurious claim is shameful. Report climate data, which is showing global warming, yes. NY Times did a great piece the other day showing how warm 2012 was. But, don’t mislead the reader by claiming that every unusual storm or weather event is somehow related to climate change. It most definitely is not!

  22. charlie line is between 2 and 3
    1 . bare ground no snow
    2 bare with patches of snow up to 2 inches ( charlie line) less than 50%
    3 bare spots with 50-70% snow cover
    4 mainly snow covered with maybe some bare spots in the woods 70-90%
    5 snow covered 90% to 100%

      1. My Matt line in Framingham and up 20 into Sudbury and Marlboro is also between 2 and 3 with conservative average 50% as is the case with you, Matt

    3. Yes great system Matt with the Matt and Charlie lines, the Matt line is solid cover, and the Charlie line is more piles of snow from plows and some patchy shady areas, more or less the hatlie line is useless snow, hope all is well

      2. Charlie not sure anyone here would even think to post a measurement based on piles from plows. I’ve been very careful all week to say that the measurements and amounts I’ve observed are from snow totally undisturbed by any human.

        In all fairness it never seemed clear to me what you were basing your line on. Which is why I kept asking what you were basing it on.

        Matt broke it down in a way that was really clear – at least for me. I think there are towns around us that are at a 1-2 and even down to bare ground, but it is not what I am seeing here. Across my street, five of the six houses have 100% snow cover on front lawns – grass just barely poking through as of this morning. The sixth house has had kids playing in yard. Same in Wellesley and where I just drove thru Sudbury/Marboro

        Husband says more ground than snow in Watertown as of yesterday which I posted last night.

        So it isn’t that the Charlie line was useless at all and it was fun to watch and try and help with but it began to seem as if the line was moving over places that still had solid snow making it confusing to me. Pretty much it’s what I said here on Tuesday. Bedroom communities bare by Thursday and where I am by end of weekend – maybe Saturday – dependent on rain/fog.

        Hope that helps

    2. Accuracy? It puts the areas you have had bare all week into the 1-2 depth with a pocket of 2-4? It’s got me in what I see at 1-2 but it has Watertown in 1-2 also and I know that is for the most part bare.

      1. Hmm no it has u in 0-1? I thought u were in middlesex cty where most of that county is 0-1 excluding the NW tip, it also shows Nantucket 0-1 but it’s bare there too, ik u got snow on ground I’m not arguing that I’m just simply stating its patchy and bare across alot of eastern mass unlike 10 days ago which I’m not happy about cause I missed the storm, have a good day Vicki 🙂

        1. You are absolutely right. I took the map and overlayed it on a google map. Yes, I know I am pathetic. It also has Attleboro and N. Attleboro in 1-2 and Foxboro and Wrentham in 2-4 and those are the areas you have had bare all week. And those are your areas so I would never question your amounts. Which would indicate the map ain’t so accurate…….no?

          I’d say observations – and we have a fair amount – are the most accurate.

  27. Now to see how many outlets take the worse-looking computer model and go with it, absent of any scientific analysis. 🙂

    BTW, average of 1 inch of snowcover in Woburn (bare ground on south sides of buildings and about 2 inches on north sides).

    And yes, snowcover is undisturbed snow on the ground. For purposes of measuring snowcover, it is done in whole inches, rounded (not tenths as we use with measuring new snow). Example, 1/2 inch of snow rounds up to 1 inch. Anything under 1/2 inch is called a trace in terms of snowcover.

    1. TK, what do you think of the cold coming. I see it as us not getting the full blast that we could. NAO is not that negative for that time period and if we get anything, I think it will be quick shots as opposed to long lasting for the remainder of the month.

      1. Both the PNA and NAO are not optimal. We get colder, but not to full potential. AO is in the right phase but the special teams are lacking a bit. I’m not sure we ever get it all to line up just perfectly, at least in the shorter term (say, the next 2 weeks).

        I already busted my temperature forecast for the first 10 days of January but I do have the remainder of the month to recover to the forecast of below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation as well. Those look like they try to line up in the next couple weeks – let’s see how persistent they turn out.

  28. I think the snow map that Charlie sent out was right on in my area. I live in Pelham, NH and it has us in the 2-4 inch range and that is correct. I work in Manchester, NH and that has us in the 6-8 range and that is correct. We need some fresh stuff…

    1. It looks to be correct in TK’s area also. Not in uxbridge and definitely not in Southbridge which the map has in 4-6. I can’t help but wonder how they get the measurements.

  29. When those dewpoints get above 32F later tonight and eventually get into the 40s later in the weekdown, the snowmelt in earnest will begin.

    1. I am ready for it to go. Too many icy spots now. I have almost slipped and fallen several times at night taking the dog out on the ice that is on top of it now. As I mentioned before, two of my friends have slipped on the black ice and they both broke bones in their leg.

    1. The link didn’t work for me, but their have been several nice looking ones in the southern hemisphere this winter.

  31. Looking at radar it appears we have a short period maybe an hr of appreciable precip between 4-5pm , some in eastern mass may receive close to a quarter inch 🙂

    2. I think that’s good for traces, at most. These 1st two batches are fighting air that’s too dry at mid levels.

  32. 12Z Canadian, 7PM 1/16:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=132

    12Z Canadian, 12AM 1/17:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

    What’s up with that?

    the 12Z Euro has some sort of clipper type system passing through, then Northeast
    of the Lakes???

    1. It’s just having trouble resolving the shortwaves in the jet stream over that particular boundary. Not entirely unusual for any model, and even less unusual for the Canadian. Even if this verified, it’s a haul-ass system with marginal temps, here and gone…

      1. I understand. Interesting how each model handles something
        so very differently.

        If this were to verify, still a reasonable amount of precip.
        If all snow a few inches at least.

        Won’t happen, I’m sure. 😀

  33. Been light rain here on and off since about 5:00. A bit heavier now. 34.8. Sighhhh so close and yet so far 🙁

  34. I was out about an hr. ago and it felt like it was freezing rain or sleeting lightly. Now, I am not sure if it is doing anything – prob’ly just raining lightly.

    1. We want to dinner at bistro 20 in Sudbury rainshine. I had a groupon. We got there at 5:00 and left about 6:20. We could tell when we left it had done something but were not sure if it was sleet or rain. I’m glad since it was sleet it had ended when we left.

  35. The light rain has transitioned to a steadier rain,, temp has dropped to 37.4 degrees so pretty confident on no icing issues inside 495, I wish it was snow but I think we will see most if our winter snows from late Jan to about the 2nd week of Feb, we’ve gotten .03 so far, hope all is well 🙂

        1. Yeah the leading edge was drying up but since looks like it’s a bit heavier south than north, it’s not a big deal but I’m up to 0.07 haha 🙂

          1. We are going through a very dry period, and it has been an extended period of drought, essentially. If it were March or April we would have fire danger like we had last spring. TK was right on the money about this. He got the temperatures a little wrong for January in his long-range forecast (I am really not expecting January to come in at normal when all is said and done, let alone below normal in terms of temps) , but he got the dry part 100% correct.

  36. Rain very steady here. Wundergroud still says 0.3. But all the WG sites have about the same amount thru Eastern ma. I sure wish it were more. We need it desperately.

    1. So true, Vicki. I enjoyed the rain this evening. Intentionally forgot my umbrella. I wanted to feel the rain on my head.

      1. You gave me a big smile.

        My grandson and I went out front and stood in the rain and tried to catch it on our tongues. So many of us here not only enjoy tracking weather but truly enjoy THE weather. If that makes sense.

  37. From the I coukdnt make this stuff up if I tried department …..

    Most of the Great Lakes region into the eastern half of the northern Plains have had two back to back days of > +20F temp anomolies. In those same locations, today’s low is running 25F to 30F above normal. At International Falls, which is close to a sharp cold front, the avg low is -5 F and their lowest temp today has been 32F. 37F above normal …yes, I’m shaking my head.

    Locally, I figure Saturday’s lowest temps locally will be about 20F above average and Sunday’s lowest temp closer to 25F above average. Its going to have to be frigid, for some time to give January a chance to average below normal, as by Tuesday, climo reporting stations are going to have mid monthly temperature avgs several degrees above average.

    1. Thanks, Tom, for the temperature data. Once again, Minnesota is going to have a lot of trouble with its scheduled winter lake festivals. Now that is really unusual. Two years in a row of not enough cold to support the festivals. This may change in the coming days as most of Minnesota is expected to be seasonally cold and this may last awhile there. Here, different story. I see the SE ridge taking shape again next week with temperatures easily making it back into the 40s by Sunday and Monday (MLK day).

      1. It must be strange. I’m sure ice fishing and the winter lake festivals must be very popular out there and I’d think the ice cover must be very thin and dangerous to be on.

      2. With respect to cold in a week or so …… I’m skeptical as well. NAO now looks neutral or not far from it at all ….. PNA looks fairly close to neutral and the Arctic Oscillation isnt terribly negative. So…..struggling to understand a pattern to be so amplified as to bring a huge arctic plunge.

        I wouldnt be surprised at all once we get to next Tuesday or Wednesday if the shorter term model projections of the approaching cold back off significantly. Instead of arctic or very cold, maybe a couple of cold days.

      1. There is little about weather I do not like but I’m not a fan of cold rain either. Like you I’m happy to see it though 🙂

    1. Thanks, Vicki! Very interesting stuff! Not only do I love the weather but I also love anything to do with astronomy. And like the weather, I have very limited knowledge re: astronomy but I enjoy reading the latest news.

      My opinion – I wish we had gone to the moon more often – by now, we should have had a colony up there as well as at least one landing on Mars. But, hey, it all comes down to the $$$.

      1. key words ptential and end of the month… I see a really lousy pattern forming with it being to warm or the jet stream is to far south.

  43. In my opinion, I think the models are getting it ……. Both seem to show a very sharp west to east temp gradient several days from now between arctic cold and cool airmasses and that gradient edged northward in the 0z runs. To beat a dead horse, I think this makes sense. With the 2 teleconnections and 1 oscillation current projections, how a big southward plunge of arctic air can occur seems counter-intuitive to those big atmospheric projections.

    1. Not including Nantucket, you had the warmest temperature of the MA reporting stations yesterday of 43. How does it feel to be in the hot spot?

      1. LOL ….. Beautiful. No snowcover left to chill the air.

        I was thinking the beach tomorrow, have to find the kids beach toys and then home in time to watch Pats game. Oh, the New England traditions of January…….beach days and football.

  44. We are 11.2 inches below normal for snow so far at Logan. Hopefully things pick up soon or my projection of 55.7 is going out the window!

  46. I need someone to announce the monthly snow prediction winner as we did last year…….. Longshot ??? 😉

      1. Computerized fantasy. 😉

        Actually something like that IS possible but things are going to have to come together just right.

        The PNA & NAO are not lining up just right.

        1. Yes noticed that when looking at the forecast for both is am. GFS backed off of next weekend’s cold too.

  48. Hmmm
    OZ Canadian:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=132&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=132&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    06Z GFS, same time, early on Thursday:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/06/gfs_namer_120_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    0Z Euro: Nothing:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=120

    And lets look way out there 16 Days:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/06/gfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    Well, I think there is a big football game tomorrow night? 😀

    Finally something cooking and it’s a Lakes Cutter! ha ha ha 😀 😀 😀

    2. Its 2F in Denver. I’d think advantage to the Ravens who can run the ball, while cold weather might slightly impact Manning’s passing game. And with that, he’ll probably pass for 500 yds and throw 4 TD passes.

      1. I’m Leaning towards the Broncos taking this game, although
        it “could” be close. I want to see Brady vs manning. 😀

          1. Yes, it is WILL be the Super Bowl. The real Super Bowl could be a let down compared to this potential game. 😀

  49. In Philly now. Rain last night and grey and drizzly now (grizzly). High of 56 today and high of 63 tomorrow. Driving back on Sun–gotta get home for the Pats. Nervous about the game.

      1. I’m with longshot…….well not in Philly but being nervous. When anyone says a game is a given I get really really nervous. And that’s all I’ve heard all week.

    1. Hmmmm. Seems to indicate uncertainty if I am reading correctly but in an honest way and I like that. The bottom line is we don’t know what will happen but we do know that we are warming – not just this year and last but for at least this century with the ever present exception or two of course.

  51. I’m not feeling it for any snow the entire Month of January! 😀

    I think the Canadian is in La La Land.

    Not sure I have ever witnessed that.

    2. I announced we are putting out snow boots back into the attic today where we eventually found them. Shhhhhh my plan is to fool Mother Nature but don’t tell her

    1. Really Tom. First the warmest temp yesterday and now your having sun today? I think we all need to come to Marshfield.

  53. It got brighter here for a few minutes but fog is back. I can see grass just starting to show on the lawns that were solid white yesterday. Houses with snow in roofs are down to about an average of 25% roof snow.

  54. I have updated the blog!

    OS – feel free to repost any links you recently posted to over there so people don’t miss them. 🙂

  55. I’m just glad they didn’t salt when it was 35 degrees out when it was raining, I thought for sure they would have to just say we salted for cautiousness but we all know it wasn’t getting below freezing, I’m happy about that, have a good day everyone, on our way to Patriot Place To eat and go to the pro shop 🙂

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