Say Bye To 60

449 Comments

7:04PM

60 degrees was reached in many areas Monday afternoon as the sun came out. This was 5 to 10 degrees warmer than I had anticipated for the region. Well, that’s gone. As discussed on the last entry, we are in the process of changing the pattern, but it is going to take all week. There are a couple change to the previous forecast coming up, otherwise the overall idea is largely unchanged.

The frontal boundary sitting near the coast Tuesday-Wednesday will ripple just a bit further northward than I thought previously. The first wave of low pressure will stay mostly offshore through early Tuesday but will be close enough to throw a period of rain and some sleet across RI and southeastern MA. The second, however, will come closer and throw its precipitation shield over southeastern New England Wednesday. This will be good for some accumulating snow, especially away from the immediate coast. It will not be a big storm, but it may have some impacts on travel. Milder air near the ocean should keep this system as mix to rain with no accumulation in these locations.

The cold front that I expected to come through without precipitation on Thursday may in fact carry some rain and snow showers with it. The cold shot for Thursday night and Friday is still on track. A slight temperature recovery over the weekend is still expected to be followed by the first in a series of Arctic blasts by the start of next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a period of rain and some mixed sleet/rain over southeastern MA and RI. Lows in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny – least sun Cape Cod, most sun north central MA/southern NH. Highs around 40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows around 30. Wind light NE.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy through mid afternoon with a period of snow, except mix/rain immediate coast, southeastern MA, and southern RI. Snow accumulation of nothing to a coating near the coast to 1-3 inches from the I-95 Belt north and west, highest amounts in the higher elevations. Breaking clouds west to east late. Highs in the 30s to around 40, mildest immediate coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow and rain showers. Low 26. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 31.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 13. High 38.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 19. High 38.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 23.

449 thoughts on “Say Bye To 60”

  1. Agree TK. Thank you:) Do you see any long term potential storms on the horizon beyond 1/19 despite all the artic air?

    1. its going to be interesting this one popped out of no where so why can others not but i think its going to be dry and cold as the jet sends the storms to far south.

    2. We have to watch the northern stream or disturbances around the PV that could sharpen it up briefly. I don’t see a whole lot of southern stream action.

        1. Ugh. But I have the feeling – based on nothing – that we get something in the large side before winter is over

  2. Now that is a depressing title. I said goodbye to 60 a few years ago and didnt like it then either :). Thanks TK !!!

    1. Yes ….. I hope the next blog title is not say goodbye to 40, as that is in the rearview mirror by some.

  3. 1 . bare ground no snow
    2 bare with patches of snow up to 2 inches ( charlie line) less than 50%
    3 bare spots with 50-70% snow cover
    4 mainly snow covered with maybe some bare spots in the woods 70-90%
    5 snow covered 90% to 100%

    My area is at a 1. no snow. but a 2 in northwestern section of town.
    this next system is going to be weak. with not that much water to work with in our area. only think areas outside of i95 will see up to 1 inch. as of right now.

  6. I don’t know why I waste my time responding to such assine comments as were made by Vicki in last posted article refering to snow plows with police riding in them . I have plowed snow in and for the Town of Belmont for many years and these comments are not only baseless but so far out of touch with reality that it is a disgrace to allow this site to attack those that work hard at doing a tough job under sometimes extreme weather conditions.This is a great informative weather blog . Keep up the good work

    1. I believe she was just recalling an example/story and not inferring anything about your job. Easy…

    2. Kirbet. My dad was on the Belmont police department. I grew up in Belmont. My mom was on school committee and a town meeting member. My brother was youngest town mm in the town. There was almost no one in the town who didnt know my family or me. If you want to question me do so but do not accuse me of making an comment that is not accurate. It my friend is a absolute fact As I said it was in 1969. It does not refer to you. One incident. That shows things happened in the past that also happen now. BTW many of the Belmont police did plowing for side jobs and I would often accompany them as they were friends. I have great respect for anyone who does any job well. There are always exceptions.

      1. Thanks WeatherWiz and Keith. You are both very kind. I think I inadvertently insulted which always bothers me.

        1. Well…even though I shouldn’t have called him Kirbutt I do think that he had no right attacking one of the nicest people out here. I look forward to reading all your posts VIcki 🙂

          1. Now it crying again and these are happy tears. Thank you. I can say the very same to you. Good heavens is there any other blog that exists like this one ?

            1. Actually John…I do look forward to your posts…you stick to your guns and I like that…most of the time 😉

              1. I sure do. I like to call me a straight shooter. I’m not some phony person behind the computer or in life. Not saying anybody here is.

          1. :). I think there is something good that comes from everything. How often do you post a few sentences about your parents and have a person know who they are. My mom and dad loved that town. It’s nice to know they left their footprints.

            And now ………back to the weather.

    1. :). Kirbet. I never intended to belittle anyone doing the job. And if that’s how it came across I apologize. But there were police in the plows. And it could have been 68. I just know I was in college and there were three storms on a row. Many were accused of holding their plows up so that the roads became a mess.

      How do I know you?

      1. And my comment was in response to Charlie’s when he said they didn’t plow 2 inches etc in the olden days. Stuff happens now. And stuff happened then.

    1. Truce without question. But since you know me only fair I know you. You are right they were great people. I miss them each and every day. My husband just asked why I’m crying :). I’m back in Belmont a lot. Lots of very special memories.

  11. NAM is running folks. From what I am reading on twitter most mets are saying things are trending colder.

    1. Uh uh. Not off the hook. If you don’t want to say how I know you here I’d be happy to post my email. But do stick around. You’ll find the very last thing I ever want to do is insult anyone. And you’ll find all people here to be as good as it gets. The one thing you may remember is Doris was tenacious as it came. I inherited that ;). Sooooooooo you knew them how?

  13. NAM looks colder for sure, just wondering how much precip ends up here, will post when we are in our zone.

    1. Dinner. We like a lot of the restaurants. We visited mt auburn last weekend as it was my moms 22 yr angel day then drove by our house and hers. We visit payson park for picnics. As I suspect you know it wouldn’t be a park except for my moms and Liz Norris’s hard work and most of the trees were planted in my moms memory Kirbet, my email is cablars@aol.com. May be better than “boring” everyone here. If I don’t answer you it means the email didnt come thru so let me know here

  19. Good thing there was a truce. I just got on the computer and luckily read all of the posts.
    I was about to post something that TK may not have liked……And I may have regretted.

    Oh well, weather….

    Here is the NAM total snowfall map for Wednesday. More than earlier runs, but
    nothing spectacular:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013011500&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054

    NAM not agreeing with 18Z GFS. Need to see 0Z GFS and of course the
    0Z Euro.

  20. Is it just me or does the PV on the 0Z NAM looking a bit further north? Possibly allowing that juice gathering to come up the coast more?

    1. Hadi define these numbers for where. Everything I heard for Boston was barely nothing, snow accumulation north of the city.

    1. Its oh so close. The PV wobbles east just in time to push that out. The NAM usually isnt very accurate in that range, but something to keep an eye on!

    2. Yes,

      Look at this 500MB Vorticity chart for 75 hours:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011500&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=075

      And at 84 hours, showing the affects of the PV. Definitely deteriorating.

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011500&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

      And for informational purposes, some nice reading on the 500MB chart:

      http://www.theweatherprediction.com/charts/500/basics/

  25. This is not a big system and I am giving it a 1 since I don’t expect snowfall to exceed 4 inches in SNE.

  27. I really have to move away from the coast! I would miss it in the summer though.

    And I agree with OS…glad there was a truce as I was about to get very unlady like! 🙂

    1. Thank you Sue and I have a plan. You move here in winter and ill take the coast. I am soooooo jealous that you are on the coast. Only problem is they keep drawing the line along the pike and I feel as if I’m in the middle of a tug of war

        1. Hmmm could be a win win for me then 🙂 :). Just look at old saltys newest post. Along the pike seems to be the in thing

  30. The exact position of that Polar Vortex as each shortwave pivots around it is going to play a huge role in how many snow chances we get over the next few weeks.

    IMO, we get a few shots of snow but they are light to moderate events. Fast movers and not enough time to develop into anything big. We’ll likely miss a few out to sea as well.

  31. How about a night cap? A good chuckle from our friends at NEWW:

    New England Weather Works
    THE LITTLE WAVE THAT COULD

    Latest guidance is suggesting the little wave for Wednesday riding North along the stalled cold front may be a bit more juiced than earlier progged, will up snow amounts to 4-8 inches in some locations and 6 inches in others, Winter Storm warnings and or advisories may be needed later this evening or tomorrow morning.

    What are these guys smoking? 😀 😀 😀

  33. With the NAO not being negative your not going to get a blockbuster storm. You could still get a light to moderate snowfall like we back on the last Saturday of 2012.

      1. Hey Mark… I live in Watertown. We got 6 inches from that storm and also had 6 inches from the storm the week after Sandy.

  34. Still liking the NWS snow map for the Wednesday storm with a widespread 2-4″ across the interior, 1-2″ inside 128, and <1" on the immediate coast. I think TK's totals are 1" too conservative but we'll see 🙂

  35. From NWS:

    WEDNESDAY… MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER N WITH MOISTURE AND PRECIP
    AS WAVE TRACKS S OF NEW ENG WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND RIGHT
    ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET PROVIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT. A
    WINTRY PRECIP EVENT WILL BE ONGOING ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME
    UNCERTAINTY WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES…ESPECIALLY NEAR THE S
    COAST. GFS IS A WARM OUTLIER AS IT HAS A STRONGER WAVE FURTHER N
    WHILE NAM/ECMWF/SREF/RGEM ARE COLDER AND SUPPORTIVE OF A MOSTLY
    SNOW EVENT. WE ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE COLDER SOLUTION BUT ALSO
    BLENDING IN THE GFS AS IT CANT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED AS THE
    EVENT IS STILL 48 HOURS AWAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT ALL SNOW ALONG AND
    N OF THE PIKE WITH SOME MIXING TO THE S…ESPECIALLY NEAR THE S
    COAST. HEAVIEST QPF IS FURTHER S IN THE MILDER AIR WITH AMOUNTS
    AROUND 0.50″ NEAR THE S COAST WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS NWD.
    SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS WITH THIS
    LIKELY BEING AN ADVSY EVENT. HOWEVER…THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOW
    FAR THE HEAVIER QPF GETS INTO THE COLD AIR AND WHERE THE AXIS OF
    HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE. WE DO THINK MOST OF SNE WILL SEE AN INCH OR
    2 OF SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE ISLANDS…BUT WITHIN THIS AREA THERE MAY
    BE A W-E AXIS WITH SNOW ACCUM UP TO 4″. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILE
    AND LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL FGEN THIS AXIS MAY END UP AROUND THE
    MASS PIKE…BUT AXIS COULD STILL END UP FURTHER N OR S.

        1. Thanks Mark. The radar is showing that sleet hitting you as maybe going a bit south and the east of us. Maybe

  36. Sleet is pelting against my window here in northern CT and quite a batch of precip coming towards us. Further north than I expected. Perhaps an omen for Wednesday?

          1. Good we need the rain!!! Its a little to dry. Hoping for snow wednesday but looks like more rain for quincy area… Blah

  38. Mark heres your answer…

    Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

    Models aren’t handling first wave of moisture well…looks wet south of the Pike tonight and early tomorrow…few sleet pellets too!

    1. Vicki,

      I posted a link above. You “may” want to bookmark it.
      It is pretty cool stuff about the 500MB vorticity chart that you
      see me post many times.

      😀

      1. Wow. Thank you for making sure I noticed. I have bookmarked but will also print for my notebook. Some really great diagrams.

  42. Interesting read above…………….. Glad to see it all worked out. 😉

    So, wave 1 wants to play a bit I see. Tweaked the discussion and forecast to reflect this. The trials and tribulations of a 12-hour forecast! 😛

  44. Vicki, glad everything worked out in the end. You really are a special person and we are lucky to have your participation on this blog. I look forward to reading all of your comments :).

    1. Thank you so very much. I am a bit wired and not ready to sleep so I just finished emailing my kids and my niece. I thought they’d love that after all of these years the names that came to kirbets mind were their grandparents

      And I always look forward to reading your posts. So many of us are just on the same wavelength. 😀

  45. OS agree the first wave was modeled much further south so let the fun begin. GFS is by the warmest solution whereas all other models are much colder.

  47. 0Z GFS looking more Juicy for Wednesday. Colder than 18Z, but warmer than
    the NAM. Following it now. 😀

      2. I work from home Wednesday too. Oh wait I work from home every day ;). Do you work from home on a regular basis ?

  50. SE ridge may be still playing with us…

    Wave #1: Further north with rain/sleet over SE New England tonight.
    Wave #2: Further north with rain more prominent over SE New England, snow further inland with higher totals due to more precip.
    Wave #3: Precip (mix/snow) tucked much closer to the South Coast Thursday night.

    This probably has no impact on the timing of the cold air masses in the days beyond.

  51. From the 0Z GFS. 500MB Vorticity chart at 60 Hours. Notice that robust
    Southern Stream energy!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_060_500_vort_ht.gif

    Now look at it at 78 Hours. Once again, the Polar Vortex are it for lunch!!
    And can the PV ever be seen on this chart!!!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_078_500_vort_ht.gif

    And finally at 87 Hours. POOF! The erosion of a potential storm is complete:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif

  52. Vicki, So very sorry and truly sad that you were put in such an unpleasant and awkward situation on the blog. I think you’re the best and always look forward to your posts and replies to my comments!!!

    1. Thank you VERY MUCH and you all just make me smile – well happy tears but that is a chronic problem for me. But I do think without intending I helped to create the problem and to me it was a great outcome. I’m glad to have Kirbet as part of our weather family.

  54. Its not my business what issue was discussed last night between Vicki and Kirbet, so I wont comment on that………….Vicki, I did want to say that you have always come across as extremely kind and thoughtful and that I always enjoy reading your comments.

      1. LOL …. Just one that illustrates why I continue to doubt long lasting cold (see below). I’ll buy into a few inches of snow for inland spots in this upcoming event. 🙂 Rain at my house, little or no accumulation at Logan. 🙂 🙂

    3. Thanks Tom. One thing I am – and I have my faults – is honest.

      Coastal it’s amazing how I can get myself into a mess without any effort at all. 🙂

  55. So, the 0z run of the EURO and this whole long lasting, arctic air intrusion thats coming ……..

    Lets see …. It shows mild this weekend, the next thrust of very cold air goes initially south through the midwest and a low seems to develop in the eastern Great Lakes on the leading edge of that cold push around Monday Night/Tues AM that turns the winds briefly southerly and then, at day 10, poof … the US is mild again.

    Meteorological winter is 45 days old and I believe 39 out of 45 days have seen temps above normal. Until the arctic cold is on top of us and in the SHORT run, models are showing it, I just wont buy into it coming.

    1. Tom am I correct that you and OS and Joshua – and I apologize for those I miss as I know there are some – are saying pretty much the same re the cold?

  57. Reading the NWS discussion out of Upton, NY the GFS looks to be the outlier with the warmer solution where the EURO and NAM have a colder solution.
    This is not a big system but the timing is not good as it will have an impact on the Wednesday morning commute especially in the interor.

  58. THE TRICKIEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR
    FROM BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE…INCLUDING COASTAL MA. MID LEVEL
    TEMPERATURES ARE UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT
    AMONG SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION…ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
    EASTERN MA COAST A SUBTLE SEA BREEZE FRONT WITH MARGINAL TEMPS COULD
    RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF RAIN. THAT WILL DEPEND ON
    MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME
    RANGE. FOR NOW…WE WENT WITH A SLOPPY INCH OR TWO IN THIS REGION
    BUT COULD END UP HIGHER OR BARELY ANYTHING DEPENDING ON MODEL
    TRENDS.

  63. I think March 2011 was the last time my area saw a snow even that produced 3.5″ or greater. That little one we had produced 2.5″. I feel like the shadowing effect is concentrated in my area.

  64. Thanks, TK.

    Vicki – turned on my computer this morning and read the above posts. I am glad all is settled. You know how I feel about you – although we have never met (I really wish someday we could!) you are the one of the sweetest and nicest people I know! 🙂

    I had a cousin who was a dentist who lived in Belmont many yrs. ago. He lived on Trapelo Rd. When he retired he moved to Wellfleet. He is gone now. But he was our family’s dentist for many yrs. I can still see his home in Belmont – his office was in his home.

    Weather-wise, tomorrow looks not to be a bad storm – just some trouble for commuters inland.

    1. Thank you rainshine and I feel exactly the same about you and would love to meet one of these days as well. I went to a dentist on trapelo road at some point growing up whose practice was in his home and am trying to remember the name. I believe he was just west of Cushing Square on the right as you headed to Waltham.

      It seems as if it is a long duration, not much accumulation for the amount of time, type of storm tomorrow. I’m not sure of the timing though so it may make for a bit of a tricky evening commute???

  65. Good morning all. Still mild out there, especially here along the coast.
    Hit the hay at 44 awoke to 38. High cirrus approaching, as well as low-mid clouds
    rolling in off of the ocean.

    Here is the 06Z GFS snow map. It hasn’t changed since the 18Z run of yesterday, or if so, very very little: (3 runs in succession)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013011506&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    850mb OC line very close to Boston area:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/06/gfs_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    Here is the 06Z NAM snowfall map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013011506&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    NAM is a bit colder than the GFS. 850MB 0C lines stays farther South:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/06/nam_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    So even with the NAM, coastal sections lose out again.

    So with both models, coastal sections clearly fighting boundary layer issues and with
    the GFS especially, some warmth aloft.

    Let’s see what the 12Z runs have to say.

    Have a great day all.

    1. Btw, the 0Z Euro is Colder still. BUT even that run depicts boundary layer issues along the coast. 😀

    2. Is the rain line a bit further west than expected. It’s hard for me to tell where the town/highways, etc are on these maps but it looked to be in closer to 95/128 than I expected.

      1. Vicki, at this point those are just a couple of model runs,
        06Z at that. Let’s see the 12Z runs and then fine tune the
        rain/snow line. It “may”, indeed, be a bit farther inland than the last one, but then again, it may not be. We’ll see.

        BTW, from the 0Z Euro, r/s line would be pretty much where
        it was last time.

  66. Rain/snow line will be quite similar to that of our last winter storm. Coastal areas inside 495 will wonder where the snow is while along 95 and west will see few to as much as several inches of snow.

    Still watch for a coastal storm around 1/19-1/21

    2. re: Coastal storm around 1/19-1/21.

      Not buying it, Unless we get a Westward wobble of the PV. IS that what
      you expect to happen? It’s the only way we can get that Southern energy to phase with the Northern stream.

      On Each model run, I continually see the Southern Stream energy
      get totally annihilated by the PV. See my post above from last evening
      where I posted 500MB charts showing exactly that.

      😀

  67. The NAM has a good handle on this storm. The NAM takes precedence over the GFS now that we are less than 24 hours away from the storm.

  68. Interesting from the HPC…

    NEW ENGLAND…

    AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
    THEN MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THE SNOW
    FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 1 SHOULD BE MORE
    LOCALIZED IN NATURE…BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND
    FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A BETTER
    RISK OF 4 INCHES AND EVEN A SLIGHT RISK OF 8 INCHES ACROSS PARTS
    OF NORTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 2.

  70. No snow in Boston from this next system. It will be too warm. Yes, there will be some flakes, but nothing will stick except perhaps some grassy surfaces. Metro west could see some accumulating snow, and the interior will see some. It will look like a mid to late March series of snow squalls. On to the now overhyped Arctic invasion coming. Matt Noyes – and I like Matt – was 90% confident that Boston would see windchills below 0 by Monday. We shall see, Matt. Personally, I’m not 90% confident of anything, so I’m not sure if a weather forecaster 7 days prior to an event should declare 90% confidence. I see that most (not all) models are already changing their tune. There will be more of that in the coming days, at least I think so. We may only get 3-4 days of slightly below normal temperatures in the Boston area next week before the milder air works its way back into the area. Just one example of how poorly the models are handling things is the forecast for this Saturday. Not exactly a long-range forecast, yet we’ve seen the temperatures climb from a forecasted high of 33 to now 44 in the spate of a few days. That 44 may actually be on the low side, folks. I’m now thinking 45 or higher is possible. Temps will tumble later in the weekend, but nothing remotely close to a true Arctic invasion is coming. I think teens at night are very much a possibility and probability in Boston, but that’s not serious cold, at least not in mid January. And once the SW flow gets going again, we can say goodbye to the brief cameo appearance of below-normal temperatures.

    1. Good read, Joshua – thanks. And I agree that 90% confidence in a 7 day forecast is questionable. I like the extended forecasts but believe it should always be clear that after 1-2 days the confidence level decreases steadily.

      1. Yes, indeed, Vicki. And no knock on Matt Noyes. His enthusiasm is infectious. I like his explanations, too. They are both intended at a broad audience of people who only want to know what’s going on in the weather department, and weather buffs like us. Moving forward, (Tom, others) and I could be totally wrong about next week and beyond. We will also be the first to admit it if that happens.

        Over in Europe, some wobbling going on in the forecasts. The cold has definitely settled in. Some snow in Holland and Belgium, with cold lingering even on the British Isles. Has not impacted Ireland yet, which suggests the high is not quite as strong as it sometimes can be. Regardless, the below normal cold that began last week should last through this Sunday. Question is what happens next. Some say the high will begin to retreat by Saturday/Sunday, which according to my inversion theory, would be good news for those of us here who like winter. Others think the cold will endure, which I do not think bodes well for prolonged cold here. Let’s see what happens. I am happy for my mad-about-skating Dutch friends who can finally skate on the shallow canals again. It’s been that cold in recent days, and sunny, too (which for the Dutch sun-worshippers, is a blessing; I wish them all the sun they can get cause there usually isn’t much during the bleak winter months).

    2. Josh I am thdinking Boston does get accumulation. You seem to be the only one thinking that. I love your postings. Just was sending you a nice reply but this texting on the run can be tough,lol. Do you think maybe your thoughts may change on Boston accumulation.

      1. Still not thinking Boston will get accumulation. Could be some slush on grassy surfaces and car windshields. I do think parts of `interior’ Boston if I can call it that (Roslindale, JP, Hyde Park) could get an inch or so. Even there I would not count on it. The cold air behind this system is just not that cold, and at the coast we’re essentially a battle ground between a relatively warm ocean and wind coming off the ocean and this cooler (but not really cold) air that is trying to penetrate the coastal plain. Boston will have a hard time even getting down to 32 this evening and overnight, in my view, and tomorrow temps should be in the middle 30s (not conducive to accumulating snow). Different story for the interior, though not much more than a few inches of snow in places like Worcester.

          1. Highly doubt snow removal will be necessary around the LMA. In fact, you will probably have to go down route 9 at least 4 miles (Chestnut Hill and west towards Newton and Wellesley) to see anything close to plowable snow. Lived in Brookline for several years and noted temp differences and snow depth differences between the border area between Brookline and Boston and Cleveland Circle/Chestnut Hill area.

        1. Yes, but I’m factoring in what happened last time
          and the STILL 45 Degree ocean out there.

          I still don’t see Logan getting 3 inches. Hadi and I “might”
          see 3 or more, but not Logan.

          This is going to be close.

          My educated guess is that the R/S line sets up a bit more N&W of where it did last time. 😀

          We shall see.

          1. Boston is to have a more northerly wind then easterly through the majority of the event. Wind speeds averaging 5mph and under.

      2. Old salty I believe down here where we both work will receive atleast two-3 inches. I hope it comes in earlier so the call comes quicker.

  72. Here is the 12Z NAM with the 850MB 0C line at its closest pass:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011512&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=035

    Very very close to the Boston area and much warmer than previous NAM runs.

    12Z NAM total precip:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/12/nam_namer_048_precip_p36.gif

    Up some more.

    12Z NAM total snowfall map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013011512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    Higher and higher! Here we go. Buckle your seat belts!

    😀 😀 😀

    1. I wouldn’t mind if this was a weekend…this sucks though as it’s all during the day. Getting to school, then to work, etc. will suck. Then at night having to clean up in the dark.

  73. I am think under 3 inches for areas at and near the coast. Inland areas I think were going to see a lot of 3 4 inch amounts maybe some isolated 5 inch reports. No a big system but the timing not good for the morning commute.

  74. sorry areas east of 95 will see a quick burst of snow to rain. nothing more than 1 inch areas inside of 495 will see 1-3 inches with snow mixing or changing to rain late morning early afternoon.
    outside of 495 3-6 inches of snow. with localized higher amounts higher amounts north central higher elevations and the berks up into southern vt and nh

  75. Anyone have any thoughts on snow for Wachusett area? Thinking about taking a “sick day” tomorrow. Is 6+” a possibility?

  76. One helpful thing against the R/S line going further west than the last storm is that there will be much, much less wind than that storm.

    Of course, with current temps in the upper 30s and dewpoints in the low-mid 20s, got to figure the wet bulb temp is somewhere btwn 28-32F, so that doesnt leave much room for any boundary layer warming.

    1. I’m think with less wind, the cold/warmer air will play against each other. Cold is heavier than warm air. I wonder if no wind exists and the precip comes down heavy enough to pull down the colder air above, will it displace the warm air closer to the coast?

      I use the word colder, relatively speaking.

        1. The NAM is trending closer to the GFS. Like I said yesterday, the GFS was biased too far west and the NAM was too dry with not much precip. Hence, a blend of the NAM and GFS yesterday was prudent. The NAM is juicier and warmer as I thought it would be but do not look for the NAM to trend any warmer. It’s right on track where I thought it would be. It has a great handle on this storm and since we are well inside of 24 hours prior to the event, the NAM now has become model of choice. Logan, along and the immediate coast line, south and east will see primarily a slushy accumulation. However, it will be an entirely different story just a few miles away from the coast. At least a few-several inches is likely in most locales.

    1. Hadi the city will see a few inches easily right down there through JP, Roxbury, WestRoxbur, dot down through Quincy.

  78. Got to watch for to see if any surprises happen with this system. There were some areas across SNE particulary across eastern parts of CT that got close to a foot of snow when the forecast was only for 3-6 inches. I am not saying the totals will be that high but you never know and an area could end up with slightly higher amounts than forecasted especially areas where good banding sets up.

  80. On JR’s blog for Ch 7 this morning and a huge pet peeve of mine with a lot of local mets…

    “*Most of the snow is west of Interstate 95—little if any snow is expected within a mile or 2 of the ocean (mostly rain in those locations).*”

    Well what about everyone in the middle?!? There’s more than a mile or 2 between I-95 and the ocean! 😡

    2. Write to him – I’d be surprised if he didn’t respond. I’ve talked to him on the phone before when they used to have spotters call in reports and you’d think he had all day to talk to you and he always seemed interested.

      1. most mets still do want people to call in its just that now there just a lack of people that do it. I did it

  82. The NAM is trending closer to the GFS. Like I said yesterday, the GFS was biased too far west and the NAM was too dry with not much precip. Hence, a blend of the NAM and GFS yesterday was prudent. The NAM is juicier and warmer as I thought it would be but do not look for the NAM to trend any warmer. It’s right on track where I thought it would be. It has a great handle on this storm and since we are well inside of 24 hours prior to the event, the NAM now has become model of choice. Logan, along and the immediate coast line, south and east will see primarily a slushy accumulation. However, it will be an entirely different story just a few miles away from the coast. At least a few-several inches is likely in most locales.

      1. I am ~12 miles inland and my feeling – gut – is that this won’t be a big thing for where we are.

      2. 10 miles west of boston brings you outside the I95 belt. Those areas will remain mostly all snow. Even areas outside of 5 miles will be mostly snow but it will be a wetter snow and will have a bit more difficulty accumulating. Within a few miles from the coastline will see mostly rain due to boundary layer issues. However, one thing to note. The northeast fetch will not be nearly as strong as the last winter storm thus the rain/snow line ‘should’ not penetrate very far inland.

    3. Slushy meaning how much. I am hoping for some overtime tonight. I’m in the Longwood area Roxbury/ Brookline not far from Fenway. How much there. Also what is the timeframe looking like. I had thought a few inches for this area?

      1. 1-3 inches of snow John for you before mixing issues ‘could’ occur. It will be a very wet, sloppy snow.

  83. I have said this before about the NAM that it over does QPF a lot of times so I always shave about an inch or two off. This model did the same thing with the thunderstorms this past summer and showed a lot more instability than the other models.

    1. That is exactly what happen w/ the last event. Downtown Boston was all rain, and Brighton was all snow. Hope to have all snow again in Brighton, and for John, too — but not as confident as his area may be too close to the coast.

      1. Last storm the longwood area had a nice hit, even with the rain before, the guys said it was tough. Looking for same outcome tonight.

  86. GFS brings a lot of warmth in…but again its the only one showing that solution. Again I think we end up very similar set up as last storm, but a further inland r/s line, but not by much.

      1. Rain is very short lived and quite light as most of the lift leaves the area tomorrow afternoon before dropping a few inches in many areas.

    1. That’s after most of the precip has fallen in the form of snow. When it tries to mix with or change to rain, the precip falls much lighter and is not able to bring down the cold air with it. A few inches would have already fallen most areas away from the coastline by then.

  91. That rain-snow line that the CMC demonstrates ‘may’ reach as far northwest as Interstate 495 during the afternoon but at the same time the precipitation will be coming to an end after most communities along the I95 corridor and to the west receives a few inches of snow. I do believe that some areas in the higher elevations of the Worcester hills will reach warning criteria snowfall because they could see 6 inches out of this.

    1. WBZ mentioned that…

      “That rain-snow line may reach as far northwest as Interstate 495 during the afternoon and at the same time the precipitation will be coming to an end. By the evening commute, there will just be a few drops and flakes leftover.”

    1. Surely the higher elevations of worcester county into southern NH will receive 4+ inches of snow. I think a few isolates locales there will see 6 inch amounts. Certainly nowhere around these parts and 6 inch amounts will be very isolated. It’s basically a very straight forward few inches away from the coast. The mix/rain, if it occurs at all inland, will occur once the storm begins to wind down and already made its mark.

  94. I agree with the NWS issuing winter weather advisories. I am not even calling it a storm since its not a huge event but like I said earlier the timing is not good for the morning commute tomorrow.

  95. The media outlets for most part are model huggers, its an easy way out if they are wrong bc they can blame the computers 🙂

      1. Its gotta be tough though. Sometimes there’s no model or scientific evidence or basis or even gut instinct to be able to forecast something. Theres sometimes a monkey wrench thrown in there last minute. Sometimes, its left up to mother nature.

  97. Later package should expand the winter weather advisories closer to I-95 from norfolk county north and west.

    1. The GFS is trending colder while the NAM is trending warmer. They should meet in the middle. I do not feel the R/S line penetrates as far inland as most do. And when it does mix/rain, most of the snow would have already fallen.

    2. Well consdering two days ago this was suppose to be a snow free week, I’d take that with a grain of salt for now. Interesting however.

  103. It sure feels like snow. I know temps are in the 40s but it has that raw, bone chilling feel with the snow cloud cover.

  104. A question. The town of Framingham has street sweepers out. Now maybe there is a good reason to do this the day before a storm. There is minimal sand along the side of the roads. No white salt residue on the roads. Any thoughts? Charlie, I thought of you and wondered if you’d asked them to clean the roads 😀

    1. They probably have some downtime. You would not believe all the sand and stuff that builds up. But Main reason is the temp is above freezing. Those sweepers shoot water out as well to hold down the dust.

      1. That’s the thing, there isn’t much sand. I’m not sure what department (DPW?) does this but wondered what the reason would be. I’ve never seen them earlier than end of March. Interesting. Thanks John.

        1. Vicki honest to god the gutters in the streets get bad. Each section of a town or city usually has a schedule to go by. They probably had time. It’s straight time not overtime.

  105. I think now when they say rain not snow in Boston plan on snow. And as I have been guessing there still is the possibility of snow for MLK weekend , ser above comments from others. One at a time. They mostly all said rain for Boston, not happening. Look for a wide spread two inches possible three in all sides of the city. That’s from here in Roxbury all the way to Quincy. Sorry Joshua but the city will stick. Max amounts five inches North/west of the city. Only thing too iron out is the timing. First I heard 4am tomorrow morning now I’m hearing by 9pm tonight. This will stick on roadways in Boston.

  108. Hmmm

    I think that the 12Z GFS is warmer than yesterday’s run.
    Here is the 850MB chart. Note where the 0C line is:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011512&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=033

    Here is the new GFS snowmap:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013011512&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    I do believe that is pushed farther N&W than yesterday’s 18Z, 0Z and today’s 06Z.

    I really don’t see snow on the coastal plain at all.

    Model Hugger? Perhaps, but this is 4 runs of the GFS that indicate warmth. 😀 😀

    We’ll know tomorrow.

    1. What I mean is How did the 2 streams phase like this? Previous runs
      had the PV beating the crap out of anything in the Southern stream.

      1. Euro has pashing as well, but depicts a clipper coming over us, then exploding in down East Maine near coast and NB.

        Canadian, has a true coastal develop down the coast and move up.

        But both models depict phasing of the Southern and Northern streams.

      1. The stations seem pretty consistent with a trace to 1″ Boston and down coast. 7 has no accumulation south of about scituate with the others having a bit down to cape. Other than 5 which has 3-5 in Worcester hills, they all have 2-4/5 in the majority of MA

    1. Hadi,

      Depends upon which model you look at. See above.
      Euro depicts clipper. CMC depicts true coastal.

      You clearly want the CMC solution. Euro not exciting for us. Perhaps for NB. 😀

  112. Personally I think tk has the right forecast, I think Logan gets little if any snow, boston itself may see a coating to maybe an inch, I lean closer to the coating but will c, anyone north and west of 128 and the mass pike get around 2-3 inches, anyone south and west around an inch, if your south and east of boston, expect little if any snow, hope everyone’s having a good day, # Bostonwillbesnowless 🙂

    2. Charlie I was just posting same above – all three major stations are in agreement with you. Of course it’s only 2:20 🙂

    1. JJ – what is the wind direction supposed to be? I think I saw someone post it will not be East as it was on 12/29

      1. I’m thinking a coating for Logan. Snow piles up quickly in the tune of a few inches from I-95 southwest, west and northwest. Inside I-95 1-3 inches. Coastline south and east, 0-coating.

      1. Old salty. Pleases tell me why you don’t agree with snow for this part of the city. I don’t get it, its cold enough.I

        1. Warmth at 5,000 feet or so. There probably will be “some” snow up front, but then there will be a fairly quick change to rain, wiping out whatever falls.

          I could be totally and completely wrong. Sure wouldn’t
          be the first time.

          Let’s see what the next runs have to say.
          18Z NAM out in about an hour or so.

          Really need to wait until the 0Z runs. NAM about 9:30PM and GFS about 11PM or thereabouts.

          😀 😀

          1. I dont agree. wide spread 2-3 inches covers all around the city of boston. The nam is king today and gfs has gone down. At least two for the city.

            1. Well if it is 2 or 3, it will get mostly washed away. We’ll see. Hope you make some extra $$$. 😀

      2. I am O.S. and I’m really not crazy about it but throwing it out there anyway.

        12z Nam has a decent amount of snow for Boston while GFS mostly mix and rain.

        Blended my call for Logan more toward GFS.

  116. I think Logan under an inch. You may see mixing as far out as 495, beyond that all snow. It will be one of those storms 10-15 miles from coast will end as a little drizzle when the heaviest of precip is over. Still a good slug of snow outside 495 (3-5inches).

  117. For the most part I agree with Alisonarod, I just believe at the end you will turn to drizzle between 128 and 495; but at that point most of precip will be over.

  118. Personally I think it starts a little earlier than anticipated, most think predawn hours I’m thinking between 10- midnight

  119. right now my area is at a 1 for snow cover which is bare ground.
    road conditions for tomorrow on a 1-5 scale. a level 2 which is minor inside of 128. Including i95 and rt 3. a level 3 outside of 128 including 128, rt 2 ,495 and the mass pike. expect delays. conditions will be a 2 tomorrow night as most will go below freezing and any moisture will turn into black ice.

  120. 4 to 8 from 495 NW
    3 to 6 from 95 to 495
    2 to 4 95 to the CCC
    Marshfield, Woburn and where ever Charlie is will be sunny in the upper 40’s.

    1. Those numbers are a bit high. Throw out the 4-8 and shift all the other numbers one slot to the west:)

      1. Arod – I have to stick to my guns on this one. I feel it will end up a little cooler than the models are predicting. Start time between 3 and 5am.

          1. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
            WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST
            WEDNESDAY.

            * LOCATIONS…VICKI’S HOUSE IN FRAMINGHAM.

            * HAZARD TYPES…HEAVY ROOF CRUSHING SNOW…REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND HAZARDOUS
            TRAVELING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY.

            * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 23 TO 26 INCHES.

            * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES…COULD APPROACH UP TO 4 INCH PER HOUR
            DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY.

            * TIMING…SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE ADVISORY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
            WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE WEDNESDAY
            MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
            ON WEDNESDAY.

            * TEMPERATURES…LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 10S TONIGHT…HIGHS
            ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.

    2. You have to be kidding? Those people at TWC have lost their minds!!

      CORPORATE BS!()*@(#*(!@*)#(*!@()*#()!*@()#*()!@*#()*!()@#*

  122. Saw this on another blog…talk about the opposite of what I think!

    “I think the snow potential is being vastly understated.

    Within a few miles from the shoreline, I think a foot is likely, and Worcester County could get 15-16 inches.

    I think there will be that much snow because much colder air than what is currently being forecast will be swept into this storm, and a “fluff factor” will result, upping snow totals.”

        1. I went there to check it out…….I know better than to go there and yet there I was….. I feel so very badly for the mets who take the time to create that blog.

    3. Fluff factor … Where is the real cold to support light and fluffy snow? Have not seen a light and fluffy storm around Boston for a long time, actually, and this includes the storms in January 2011, which were mostly on the heavy side. Light and fluffy snow does happen when it’s a very cold winter storm, you know, like the one in late December 1995 or January of 1996 when it was 15-20 degrees even in Boston and snowed for hours producing a lot of light and fluffy snow. Here, I am not talking about the blizzard of January 1996, but the storm before that blizzard. The last surprise storm to hit Massachusetts with lots of light and fluffy storm that I can remember was in January 1997 (widespread 6-12 inches of very fluffy snow because it was very cold that particular day in an otherwise mild winter). But, the ingredients were in place for light and fluffy snow; a truly potent Arctic front. I do not see that at all tomorrow.

      1. I don’t go to that blog very often but most of the names are familiar from the other BZ blogs. I don’t recognize the name of the person who posted that so wonder if it’s a spoof.

        1. Oh, I got spoofed or punked or whatever. That wouldn’t be a first. Thanks for letting me know, Vicki.

  123. Well the 18Z NAM pretty much holds ground, most precip comes before much of a changeover so who knows. Nowcasting time 🙂

    Charlie will have all reporting stations around him showing snow, but I would bet he reports heavy rain 🙂

  124. 18Z NAM is in. More of the same.

    Here is the snowfall map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013011518&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=039

    Here is the Northward push of the warmer air aloft:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011518&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=026

    And the 1000-500MB Thickness:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011518&var=PCPTHKPRS_1000-500mb&hour=026

    This spells a more RAIN event for all of SE SNE and a changeover/mix beyond 495.

    Again, it is the 18Z.

    I await the 0Z Runs, THEN it is NOWCASTING. 😀 😀

    1. OS. The changeover occurs far too late. You may be right about the changeover as fast west as 495, but most of the snow would have already fallen. Btw, the changeover occurs, most of the lift has left the area resulting in drizzle at the tail end of the storm. Don’t be fooled. Most of SNE receives 3+ inches of snow from I95 west while inside of I95 and especially the coast line sees mainly liquid. This will be quite similar to what occured a few weeks ago. A snowstorm just inland and a rainstorm along the coastline. There will be a sharp gradient.

      1. Not being fooled. I see that. I still think it will be farther
        inland than your current thinking.

        We shall see.

        1. We aren’t debating that it ‘could’ go further inland. The question becomes “when” will it go further inland. Btw, the snow mixes or changes to rain, the storm will be winding down;)

          1. Yes, and I am saying it will changeover earlier
            than you are, that is all. You are going strictly
            with the NAM. I believe with 4 consistent runs, the GFS cannot be discounted. Therefore, my contention that the changeover occurs earlier
            and thus less snow in Eastern sections to possibly None along the coast. 😀

            Also, I am factoring in the fact that the wave last evening tracked much farther to the North than
            anticipated. Therefore, it is not the boundary layer issue I fear so much, but rather temperatures at 5,000 feet or so. Also the 500-1000MB thickness is marginal at best.

            It certainly will be interesting to see what happens. I love this! 😀

            1. I’ve been saying along that eastern most sections will see very little snow. The disagreement is what will occur around the I-95 belt and to the west. I believe I-95 and west sees 3-5 inches of snow. You likely feel that the 3-5 inch amounts are west of I-495.

      1. I agree with that Coastal but do not concur with 8 inch amounts. Isolated 6 inch amounts in the highest elevations of the worcester hills up into southern NH.

          1. no one sees 8 inches though so 8 should not be included in the range. 6 inches will be the most this storm squeezes out.

  126. TWC named the storm because of the big time icing in the parts of the south that sound see much in the way of wintry precipitation. Some places could see 1/2- 3/4 inch of icing and that is a big deal no matter what part of the country that happens because ice accumulation like that could take down trees and power lines and lead to power outages.

  128. TWC should not be naming these storms. I sure hope this is a one-season “fad”. It’s a waste of time and all it does is confuse people. I can hear the arguments now: “Do you remember that big ice storm 2 winters ago?” “Yeah! That was Winter Storm Burrimar right?” “No, I’m pretty sure it was Abercrombie…” “No I am SURE it was Burrimar! Was that how you say it?” “I’m telling you. It was Abercrombie, you lugnut!” … Just forecast the weather, TWC.

  130. Its telling when on a northerly breeze, the temps are still in the upper 30s and low 40s. Country-wide, this particular cold airmass is now moderating …… Minneapolis is 28F, International Falls is 19F, both above normal.

    I’m glad to see the NWS forecast has none for snowfall at Logan. I think their 1-2 and 2-4 maybe need another 15-20 mile jog west and northwestward.

    On the 12z EURO, still looks like a relatively mild weekend. The EURO is still continuing its long range inconsistency in projecting the NAO and thus, its 12z run looks colder next week than the 0z run. We’ll see.

    2. Say it ain’t so, Tom – I’m just 24 miles from Logan…….I don’t want that teensy little snow amount out to here ………. 🙁

  131. Interesting Discussion from the NWC at Gray, ME. Although it is for an area
    to our North, I thought is was worthy of a look see:

    WHILE A QUICK LOOKS SHOWS A FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEM…THIS SYSTEM IS
    TRANSPORTING A FAIR AMT OF MOISTURE OUT OD THE GULF
    STATES…ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT REINFORCE THIS MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
    TO THE NE. HOWEVER…GIVEN STRONG FLOW AT 500MB…AND ESPECIALLY
    IN THE UPPER JET /200+ KTS/ IT WILL KICK OFF SOME DECENT MID-LVL
    THERMAL CIRCULATIONS AND LIFT. THIS ALL HINTS ABOUT THE
    POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF MOD OR BRIEFLY HVY SNOWS IN
    BANDING..

    1. Looks reasonable. I’d push the far SE area back to the N&W somewhat.
      Clearly, they are talking about a fairly rapid change to rain over Eastern
      and Southeastern sections. 😀

      We’ll know tomorrow. As JJ always says, watch out for surprises. 😀

        1. for what it’s worth – and that’s about a plug nickle – I agree too. That is mostly from listening to the discussions, trying to read the links posted and some guess tossed in for good measure.

          1. Oh and sorry John but I’m not thinking much along the coast – but am not convinced the warm ocean temps will play quite as big a part. I hope I’m wrong so you get some OT.

            1. I’m not sure if last post went through. Yes that’s good. Would have been nice if I had the truck. Thinking about buying one.

    1. Yes, I was just driving my daughter to CCD and I heard Todd on BZ and was surprised to hear 1-3 along the coast and 3-6, 128 to 495, with 6 in Worcester.

    2. 7 is about what they had when I posted earlier – they changed 2-5 to 3-5. BZ added the 4-6 just west of 495 which they had as 2-4 when I posted earlier. 5 has moved amounts a bit higher west of Worcester also.

  136. I think there is more QPF coming but less snow for I-95 and more for NW. This patterns pretty much blows!!!

  137. I will say this, whatever towns happen to end up in that transition zone of a 1-3 inch slushy, wet snow had better clean it up before it freezes solid for one day on Friday. Or just let it sit and Saturday and most of Sunday’s upper 30s to low-mid 40s will do away with it.

    1. You are right. But, I sincerely believe that Boston and the coast will not be getting snow. We are at 41 degrees right now. I doubt whether Boston even hits 34 tonight let alone 32. It’s just doesn’t make sense to think that this event would produce accumulating snow at the coast or even several miles inland. This is where some mets are not using common sense. I do think Vicki (39 degrees now in Framingham) gets some snow, albeit slushy. And the Worcester area (already at 36 or below) and points west and north could get a nice amount. It will be a storm that has marginally cold enough air, even inland. Again, it looks like a March storm, not a mid January one.

      I completely discount the models showing an Arctic intrusion of massive proportions next week. I really think they are out of their minds. Colder and some below normal temps, yes, finally. But nothing remotely Siberian.

      1. 37 here now. Once sun sets temp drops quickly. I had fully intended to have fire outside last night but was down from 62 to high 40s by time mac got home at 5:15. And slushy snow. Ugh…….or maybe not if it weighs down power lines 😉

        1. Joshua are you using wundeground? Garden in woods in framingham is the station I use. It’s less than a mile from my house and is right in line with my weather station. Temp dropped .3 in time it took me to post again

      2. Your sticking to your guns, I like that and its my style as well. But I could not disagree with you more. Everybody is upping and your still saying no snow for Boston, no way that happens. The phone Will ring by 3am and I’m in it. This is in no disrespect of course by any means.

  138. Both Harvey and Pete have 40F or a bit higher for Sat and Sun, Pete has mild temps Mon and Tues, but Harvey has 29F with night snow on Monday.

    Both have tomorrow’s high around 37F to 38F ….. Again, quite telling I think for a storm that wont have this huge NW wind pouring in behind it.

    1. It took Harvey and Pete too long to figure out this weekend would be in the 40s. I respect them as mets, but they had mid 30s in their forecast for the weekend very recently. All the temps on the forecasts will be creeping upwards, including next week’s. Monday will be cold (mid to upper 20s), but not super cold, and after that it’s a slow reversion to what we’ve been experiencing.

      1. I respectfully disagree for the long range, yes short range the cold was overdone, but later in the week and over the next month you will see below average temps.

  139. Tom again its hard to pin this temp thing down until we are in it, you can’t go back and forth with the EURO from run to run bc its inconsistent in the long range. So saying its gonna get cold or its not is really a guess at this point.

    1. True …. Although I would hope that I’ve come across as being skeptical of very cold air in the long range. In my post about an hour ago, I was trying to say that because the 12z EURO’s long range NAO indices were more negative this run, I thought it might explain why it looked colder next week. Then, I ended with we’ll see …. which translates to, I dont believe it. 🙂

      1. I posted earlier that you and OS and Joshua seem to be all skeptical of cold air in the long run. So you are definitely making that clear. Your reasoning seems sound to me. I’m also very interested to see how the transitions in Europe affect us.

  140. Again I do not think Arctic air is coming but well below average air is coming. I think the term “arctic” is way overused, bc its nearly impossible for us to get true arctic air here in SNE.

      1. Cause we are warming ;). See my link below. If its accurate and I am reading correctly it is where the cold air forms that determines arctic air

    1. Whdh is the only station that didnt increase.. It’ll be interesting to see if they hold steady or end up increasing

      1. I don’t think many see much above the 3-5 amount with the exception of the highest elevations. Just inside I-95 sees 1-3 and within 5 miles from the coast, up to one inch max. We’ll see. This is fun though:) Nice to have something to talk about.

      1. True ….. Watching Harvey has me nervous with regards to my no snow prediction at Logan. He seemed pretty sure that Boston would see some snow.

  144. I think the cold air is coming its staying power is what’s the question, I think Logan will get a trace of snow, Boston itself will receive an inch or less, but 2-3 inches north,west, and southwest, go beyond 495 and you will receive 4-5 maybe 6 inches, I do think all of the accumulating snow will fall between 6am-10am, also snow starts southwest around 11 pm to midnight and closer to 2ish north and east of boston, I think Boston down rt 3 gets very little, enjoy the event 🙂

    1. You’re pretty accurate except for timing. You’ll be in REM stages of sleep before the first flakes reach the ground, even in the southwest. Timing 3 a.m in the southwest and 5 a.m. in the east.

  145. ok so im thinking this storm looks alot warmer than i thought this morning.
    nothing south and east of boston.
    0-2 inches areas inside of 495 and east of i95. down into ct and rd. where an icing event could take place. expecially central ct. southern ct is rain.
    2-4 outside of 495 wet sticky snow
    4-6 inches for the higher terrain of interior southern new england up into souther nh and vt.
    have fun with the cement like snow. get it up even if you have a small amount so you do not have an ice rink on your driveway and pathways.

  146. Even though this is not going to be a large storm, we’re going to see some very rapid changes over distance from not much snow to snow that is needing a shovel to move.

  147. Here are the current January temp anomolies through Jan. 14th ….

    Logan : +5.5F. Hartford and Providence : both at +5.0F. Worcester : +6.3F.

    It may surprise some that today’s anomolies are running higher than these departures because the overnight lows are still well above normal.

    Since tomorrow will be halfway through the month, Logan for example would have to run about 5.5F below normal for the 2nd half of the month to finish with average temps. Since its avg. for the rest of the month is about 36/22F, then for the month to be normal, the last 15 days of the month will have to average 30.5F/16.5F to break even.

    Also, yesterday’s high was +24F above normal at Logan. Logan’s warmest avg high in mid July is 83F. Thus, if we were to experience the opposite, a July day at Logan would have to have a high of 59F.

    Climo data from Taunton NWS climate section.

  148. Temp to 32.6. Didnt take long. DP,from 32 to 23 in an hour. I’m watching the moon go from totally clear to fuzzy to in and out of cover.

  149. Down to 34 in Marblehead with a dew point of 24, right on the coastline…Just a few more degrees to get the ground temp better ready for snow to accumulate.

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