Small Sloppy Storm

441 Comments

7:49PM

A frontal boundary just southeast of New England will act as a running board for a wave of low pressure, which will move up and across extreme southeastern New England (center probably passing just south of Cape Cod) during Wednesday afternoon. This will send a shield of light to moderate precipitation across southeastern New England on Wednesday. Milder ocean air will become involved with this system especially since we are really not that deep into the cold air mass which is just trying to push into the region at this time.

Precipitation time-table and type: Expect the edge of the precipitation to be moving across the region from southwest to northeast during the overnight hours (midnight to 6AM). Snow will break out in most areas except mixed rain and snow over Cape Cod and the Islands. During the morning hours up through noon or shortly after will be when the steadiest precipitation occurs. This will be in the form of mix to mainly rain Cape Cod and Islands into southern RI and the South Shore of MA, but as you move inland mix will become snow and it may stay all snow or at least mostly snow mainly north of the Mass Pike and from just west of I-95 west and north. Enough mild air may finally reach into some of these areas during the afternoon for it to become too warm for snow, but by then the vast majority of the precipitation will have fallen and there will be only spotty mix/mist left. All precipitation will be over by early evening.

Snow Accumulation: Nothing over Cape Cod and the Islands, slushy coatings at most then melting in coastal RI and the MA South Shore, building rapidly up to 2-6 inches elsewhere with the highest amounts in the highest elevations of north central MA.

Beyond the Wednesday event…

Cold front slices through the region Thursday with nothing more than a rain or snow shower, but introduces a short-lived shot of cold air for Friday (a hint of things to come). Moderating temperatures Saturday into Sunday as the Polar Vortex wobbles about and pulls back slightly, allowing surface low pressure to cut northwest of New England. This low will drag an arctic cold front across New England Sunday, which may be accompanied by a few snow showers/squalls. This will introduce what is expected to be the first in a series of very cold blasts of air, the first arriving Sunday night (during the Patriots/Ravens game) through Monday (MLK Jr. Day). More of these will follow next week as a very cold pattern settles in.

Storminess next week? It remains to be seen how things will work out, but this looks like a largely cold/dry pattern coming. However, with pieces of energy rotating around a wobbly Polar Vortex, we cannot rule out a few threats of snow (watching Tuesday & Friday of next week as potential threat days, of course timing subject to change).

Reeling things back in, details for the next 7 days for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow/mix/rain (details above) developing southwest to northeast from around midnight to dawn. Lows from the upper 20s south central NH to lower 30s most other areas, some middle 30s Cape Cod. Wind near calm.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Snow north and west, mix/rain southeast (details above), steadiest in the morning, with a slight shift northwestward of the rain/snow line before precipitation tapers in the afternoon. For accumulations, see details above. Highs from around 32 north and west of Boston to the lower 40s Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing west to east before midnight then some clouds returning after midnight. Lows in the 20s to around 30, mildest Cape Cod. Wind shifting to W up to 10 MPH. Watch for icy spots on untreated surfaces!

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of passing rain or snow showers. Highs around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW by late day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 10. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill around zero at times.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 17. High 40.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 20. High 38 then falling late.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.

441 thoughts on “Small Sloppy Storm”

    1. I would put us in that range, yes. If we get under a moderate band for 2 hours in the morning, it will be near the upper end of the range. If the precip is a bit less organized, toward the lower end. I think we mix but near the end of the precip. Of course you are at one end of the city while I am nearly at the other… It will be interesting to see what happens between here and there.

  2. Yeah I up from Four Corners…strange as I am up a hill and even though it’s not a huge hill I always seem to get more snow. For example, there might be a dusting – 1inch at my house but at Four Corners, nothing to a trace. I am just glad I don’t need to roof rake by the sounds of the amounts…assuming it holds of course. My impression has been this might not end up being a big deal at all…

    1. I spend a great deal of time near the top of Mount Zion (by the TV towers) late night on weekends. I have seen some remarkable differences in snow totals from the top of that hill down to where Four Corners is.

      1. Mount Zion…hmmm…I should know where that is…I’ll ask my wife as she grew up in Woburn. I’ve lived here since 2001 but was a Medford transplant.

      2. Funny…my wife told me where Mount Zion is…HA…I am right there! Who knows maybe I’ve seen you a few times and never knew it.

        1. You probably have. I drive up and down Lexington Street and Waltham Street quite frequently. I am often cruising thru the McD’s drive thru picking up a Newman’s Own coffee (hot or iced depending on the weather). Sometimes I’m next door at the DD’s but usually just doing a quick pick up. 🙂

  3. Thanks TK

    Lets see what JP comes in with.

    TK any thoughts in next week, a lot of guidance see to be converging on a potential big storm? Any thoughts?

    1. We’ll be near a firing cannon a couple times, but I think both times the cannon ball lands out at sea. Something to watch in the vicinity of Tuesday and Friday. If something gets us, I’m thinking the Friday thing could actually end up being a Friday night / Saturday surprise. But that’s so far out there that anything can happen with it. We may end up looking at a flat wave flying eastward a few hundred miles south of us when all is said and done. The models won’t know what to do with that potential feature for a while.

  4. Intimidate North Shore, you could have just said Scott’s house 😉
    We’ll see what happens. In any case it will be nice to see the snow falling, been awhile.

  6. nEWw just posted “would not be surprised if “well they used the “b-word” I am new to models but as a teacher do an ok job with them, and the help from this blog I am learning by the day… But could this really a verifiable scenario?

    2. I saw that. Just their style they choose to use.

      Of course this far out (1 week) from that potential event, there are a host of scenarios that could play out. My aim is to try to rule out the least likely. Is the blizzard scenario one of the least likely? I say yes. There is enough uncertainty to incite the meteorologist to not completely let his guard down, but enough evidence to keep me from getting too nervous.

      1. Thanks guys I have been reading for a long time, but as a teacher I have a love for weather. I taught myself with some help how to read some models and lingo. Keep up the great blogging 🙂

  8. I feel as if I’m in limbo. Everyone says north of pike or south of pike. I’m on the pike. Kind of like that no mans land between just west of Boston and 95.

    Just kidding TK. I know I am at highest amt for south of here and lowest for north. Sure is a long period of snow with little to show for it

    1. Stand in the median and throw a lawn dart. Whichever side of mid point it lands on is the side you go with. 😉

  9. For what it’s worth, the Burlington WRF has mostly snow all the way to the coastline as the winds never really become onshore. Eventually changes to rain when precip lightens up. Biggest issue with this one will be the snow ratios as the 540 line will remain just north of the forecast area for most of the event.

    1. Well I’d say believe in the storms. You wake to snow and drive work in snow. I told you earlier accumulation where we work.

    2. Thanks, OS. Also, TK, thank you for the detailed forecast.

      It is down to 36 in Boston, cooler than I thought it would be at 9pm, but it doesn’t have a snow feel. It has a mix feel. I just ran my 3-mile jog. Not a rain feel, not a snow feel, but right in between. This is why I doubt whether we’ll really see accumulating snow in the city. Plus, the ground is very warm for mid January. I don’t think Boston has had frost in over a week.

      I do see that weather.com now has 46 for Saturday’s high. With the sun shining and a SW wind, we could reach 50. Monday through Wednesday do look cold. I highly doubt single digits in Boston at night. I’ll go with teens overnight on Monday and Tuesday. I am sticking to my guns about this cold air lasting much longer than 3 days, because I don’t think it will. I do not expect 50s to return soon, but I fully expect to see 40s soon after the cold dip or dive.

      Looking at the Dutch website, the real cold there – and it really has been quite cold for Holland with highs the past 4 to 5 days in the mid to upper 20s (normal high is 42 in Amsterdam and normal low is 34), even in the coastal cities – looks to retreat by late Saturday into Sunday. But this may be considered a strategic retreat as only a brief period of thaw will occur Sunday through Tuesday or Wednesday prior to the Scandinavian high reasserting itself by Wednesday of next week. This is a forecast with about a 60% confidence level, according to the knmi.nl site. Please let me know if you are all bored by my relaying Dutch weather information. I’m sure some of you are wondering why the heck this person is so obsessed with weather in Holland.

      1. No please continue. I just posted looking for you. Did you see the new information from the Mr old salty himself. What gives dude. Boston accumulates on roads and walkways. Again love your posts just not in agreement. I’ll probably be shoveling all morning.

      2. Keep the Dutch weather info coming! I am in your camp. Not a true believer on the cold coming in earnest and staying.

    1. Just keep telling yourself that 360ish days of the year everyone is envious that you are on the coast. If that doesn’t work come on over 😉

  13. Boston gets 2 in the longwood medical area. Tk I’m up at 4:45 for work. Do I have a shot on an earlier wake-up call. Thanks.

    2. Tom, c’mon now. Tell the whole story.

      True, 37, BUT the dew point is 22. That is extremely significant. 😀

      1. Yup. Wrong. I’m wrong again. Actually, I’m not wrong until it verifies, but sure looking like I was wrong or will be incorrect. 😀 😀 😀

      1. How much for the work area, what I called. It’s ok to be wrong it builds character. Tom reporting still warm at Logan. Where is josh on no way Boston gets snow, lol. It’s all good.

        1. I’m here. I’m still saying no measurable snow in the city. In fact, whatever slush there is on the windshields and grassy surfaces will be gone by noon.

        2. Johnnnnnnn from the old lady on the blog. Remember the word gracious. Check back to storm update on the dec 29 storm when you kept saying what went wrong. Everyone supported you. It’s what we do here :D. Whatever we get its all good and its all more than exciting learning everyone’s thoughts.

          And ill step off my soapbox now before the snow covers it or TK throws that dart at it 😉

      2. I’d say on the whole not very many. I’m not even remembering once but if you remember Dennis and I have a short term memory problem. So to be safe well go with wrong once 😉

  16. I think the slightest breeze off the ocean will result in ZERO snow for Boston proper. I “commute” to Brighton currently for work. It’ll be interesting to see what a difference a few miles makes from the south end to there.

      1. Such a shame too. I used to live in Southern California where the marine layer would occasionally ruin perfect days. Reminds me a lot of that!

        I love snow in the city. It makes if look so picturesque. Can’t wait till we actually get some!

        1. I’d like to spend a snowstorm in the city. It will be very interesting to see if there is a difference between the south end and Brighton.

  17. For fun, I googled wet bulb temperature calculator.

    On the first site, I plugged in Logan’s temp and RH (37F / 52 % RH) and it calculated 31.7F.

    On the second site, it asked for those two pieces of info and a third, the pressure. When I plugged in 30.27 inches, it calculated 31.82F.

    1. I’m sorry. I don’t know what that means for significance but am more than curious.

      30 here still 23 DP

      1. So, when there’s a difference btwn the air temp and the dew point, as there is tonight, the wet bulb temp is the theoretical temperature that the air temp and dewpoint will meet at after a while once precip falls into the airmass. I think thats the basic idea ………

          1. Most times, when precip is falling, they are very close, if not equal. When they are equal, there will either be fog, frost, drizzle or some type of precip, because when the 2 are equal, the relative humidity is 100%, ie, the air is fully saturated.

            Now, if you’ve ever seen a day where you can clearly see a cloud precipitating, but its not reaching the ground (virga), then I’m thinking that there’s a bigger separation in the temp and dewpoint and the precip is literally evaporating before hitting the ground. But, in doing so, it is bringing the temp and dewpoint somewhat closer and thats why it feels cooler if your under one of those virga events. The temp is falling and the dewpoint is rising. I think. 🙂 🙂

          2. I think I know what you mean and I think I’ve seen that but didnt know what it was. Thanks again Tom.

      1. I did go with high 20s (27 inches ???) for total seasonal snowfall, so on that end, while my no snowfall at Logan prediction will fail, I could use a couple 2 or 3 inches out of this storm for the seasonal snowfall prediction.

  20. I justed noticed that and the thinking is 2-3 inches of snow. Did not expect Boston to meet advisory criteria for the system. I am still think 1.4 inches of snow for Logan.

  22. Boston Logan, 10PM Obs:

    Temp=36
    Dew Point = 22

    Getting there. Wet bulb should be close to 29 or 30.

    I’m definitely thinking more coastal snow now.

    😀 😀 😀

    1. Great comment. Wouldn’t it be nice if they were heated. There is a road in Belmont that used to be. Have no idea if it still is

          1. I actually think the #’s I put out hold up pretty well. I went for very little or nothing from CC thru the South Shore, and a quick buildup to 1-3 just inland and 3-6 further inland and NW with highest amounts in the hills. Don’t see a need to change that really.

            NAM did the same thing on the storm that everybody got mostly rain in back a while ago. The only differences were the ocean was a touch warmer then, but also there was colder air just inland. There really is not a whole lot of cold air for this. Boston’s temp stays above freezing right through the event.

  26. Hmm… a certain weather outlet out there online is saying they expect Winter Storm Warnings soon for this storm, and heavy snow in Boston by 5AM.

    Also bringing a storm in on Friday and a potential all out blizzard with to-the-moon snow ratios next Tuesday.

    Some bold calls there. 🙂

      2. You mean this?

        New England Weather Works
        Liked · 3 hours ago

        Do not want to take the attention away from Wednesdays storm but
        NOT A FORECAST YET, BUT GETTING CONFIDENT

        I do want to touch on what we were talking about last week, it appears to us that Guidance is beginning to settle into this new pattern change.

        Looking ahead the potential is going to be there for an impressive coastal storm on Tuesday, at this time it looks like a significant system, the EURO and GFS are now on board, we did post an image last week shown below what are thinking was, it’s still early but we are laying odds this comes to fruition and are contemplating the best way to present the Graphics for this in the coming days.

        As to not be labeled a weather outlet that Hypes things, it’s more the excitement to bring you information we feel is worth nothing, it would not knock us off our feet to see a full blown Blizzard take shape on Tuesday
        Rolling up the coast, with the kind of cold air that will be in place, it could take the snow ratios to the Moon.

        Stay tuned as we detail this important storm that we believe will have the potential to blast the eastern Seaboard with an abundance of snow and wind with a good dose of Arctic Air for good measure.

            2. But remember the Cmc and the euro to an extent were much stronger than the GFS.

              But they are hype masters nonetheless.

              1. Yes, for sure. 😀

                I almost fell off my chair when I saw that graphic! Stunningly Funny!! That should win an award! The Woodsie or something?

  27. I was going to bring that up, man they go crazy.

    I did notice that the nam does bring the Friday storm awfully close.

    2. My brother-in-law and his family live in NC. The mention of flurries in the forecast usually shuts down the schools for the day.

  32. Todd G tweet

    @ToddWBZ: Wow..NAM and GFS gives Southern New England a very close shave with a developing Nor’easter on Thursday,,,way too close for comfort!!!

  33. You think the graphic before was funny, check the one they just posted. 🙂

    For Tuesday January 22.

  35. Well, the 0z GFS has the storm next Tuesday and with the very cold air in place, we would be looking at a light, fluffy snow everywhere. It’s not the monster NEWW is hyping but that run would be good for 5-10″ in eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT.

    That Friday system really bears watching. The 0z NAM and GFS have trended north and are a very close call with some heavier precip just off shore. With last night’s system and tomorrow’s system having trended quite a bit north than originally expected, that system Friday has the potential to surprise some people, especially on the Cape and Islands and perhaps further inland. Looks cold enough to support snow.

  39. And ……. its………. raining in Marshfield. Well, very eastern Marshfield, anyway. I wouldnt be surprised if its snowing a couple miles west out by Rte. 3.

  43. The 4 major climate reporting stations in southern New England had temp departures yesterday of +10F (3 of them) and the other at +9F. Data from Taunton NWS.

    Its the overnight lows and in spite of a nice snow for most, today will be well above normal again because of the lows being well above average.

  45. I had a good 1/2″ on the grass when I left for work a hour ago. In Norwood we have about a inch. The highways were starting to get snow covered around the edges and the on ramps were completely covered.

  46. BB (the weather BB Charlie 🙂 ) has next Monday at 30F…… low 40s tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday. He does have 29F and snow next Tuesday.

  47. Danielle Niles ‏@DanielleNECN

    Rain/snow line in Plymouth County, MA shifting east now. As precip picks up in intensity, I’m expecting a changeover to snow at the coast.

      2. Isn’t this a joke bc they say this everywhere, the other 3 places I’ve lived in my life those cultures used to say the same thing, just wait a min and the weather will change 🙂

  51. The models are trending north for the Fridays system. I believe this one and the rain we had the other night did the same. I wonder if this will continue.

  53. We have 34 degrees and light to moderate snow in East Bridgewater. Roads are sloppy but crews are out. Expecting conditions to improve once the sun rises. Flakes are getting bigger. Be safe everyone.

  54. Surprised by the intensity in Woburn…pouring snow. Shoveled a quick path for my wife and it was covered within seconds.

  55. Holy cow does the Cmc show a beast of a storm for next week. Very little support at this point from most other models. But the CMC did catch today’s storm before any others.

  57. Alreday noticing the back edge of the precipitation moving into the Hudson River Valley of NY. The commute is not going to be easy this morning and be careful shoveling since this is that what I like to call cement snow and a few weeks ago prior to the 12/29 storm we had that cement snow and I found it tough to move and I am 28 years old.
    Watching tomorrow night and Friday as that low pressure system seems too close for comfort.

  58. Very cool “commute” this morning …..

    My house : No accumulation with a rain/snow mix

    About .2 mile westbound on Rte. 139, it transitioned to all snow and there was a quick buildup to a coating.

    The next 1.5 miles westbound (up about 20 to 30 ft in elevation) and there’s moderate snow with about 1-1.5 inches of accumulation, the roads are a bit slushy and its a winter wonderland.

    I was wrong about no snow near the coastline, but to get my dig in 🙂 , these wet snow systems are a month too late. This should be happening in mid December. Have a good day all !!

  67. Thanks, TK.

    Wow – so many comments since last night! I tend to go to bed early so I guess I miss out on all the fun! 🙂

    In Sudbury we now have 3 inches of basically a wet snow but yet it seems kind of fluffy. It is snowing moderately now and it is flat calm outside. But very pretty outside for sure! And the temp. is 28 degrees.

    1. Ahh, but not so pretty for those out on the road. Haven’t worked in awhile so I tend to forget the bad situations in weather like this.

    1. I was incredibly shocked when I went out to walk the dogs a minute ago in the south end. I love the old under promise/over deliver!

  70. Could some of you met types give me your take on storms for next week? I saw a few comments above and listened to BB about storms, and I am not seeing what everyone else is seeing. Yes, I see a low here and there but I thought I heard BB say something about the possibility of a BIG Fri storm next week and I don’t see BIG. (My problem is that I have gone 2 weeks without a single glass of cabernet. I read models better under the influence of 1-2 glasses. :))

    1. I’ve been seeing something big for a couple of weeks now for next week. Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen but something will be out there to talk about. With the artic air colliding with the relative warm airmass we have in place over us right now, it’s very likely that there will be some storm to talk about. If it’s going to happen, next week is most likely.

  71. 3 inches of snow in Westwood so far and still snowing. I’m leaving forecast as is with the exception of having to bump totals up very slightly. The coast line, extreme southeast MA and the Cape if not already rain will be turning to rain. The rain/mix line will slowly progress north and west but by the time that line reaches just west of the I95 belt, most of the precip will be almost over. The damage will be done and most of the region will blanketed with 3-6 inches of snow with the exception of inside 95 where 1-3 inches will fall including Boston. Along the immediate coast line, extreme southeast MA and CC, expect a sloppy inch or less. Enjoy! 🙂

  72. Newton: Larger flakes now falling at moderate rate. Not sure if we are at 2″ but it’s heavy and wet for sure.

  73. Just under 3 inches here and flakes a bit wetter than they were. I’m going with rainshines description of fairly wet but fluffy which is perfect. I expected it to be wetter and may still see that. Certainly accumulated faster than the 12/29 storm.

    I’m thinking John is plowing but sadly not on OT 🙁

    Be safe everyone and as Tom said, I think December is a bit late to the party but may have finally arrived. Do we get to have a redo on Christmas as well 😉

    Be very safe everyone!

    1. Funny you say that about Christmas Vicki. This morning my five year old woke up and saw snow and asked if it was Christmas again. It was tough to deliver the sad news that it was not. 🙂

  74. Measured 2.6 inches in JP at 7:45 AM with temp around 32.
    Vis was only around 1 mile. Steady nice rate. Commute to work was no
    problem at all. Side roads slushy, main roads just wet.

    Haven’t looked at a models yet, just the radar. End of precip is fast approaching, but
    it looks like more is hanging back?? 😀

            1. On the loop I sent (which doesn’t show snow or ice) it looked like precip. area growing. Just put on TWC on tv and saw snow is almost over.

              1. looked as if it were growing to the northwest of Boston. I see what you mean. And it sure does look to be almost over.

    1. I stuck a yard stuck into the snow on top of my car. Just a hair over 2.5 inches.
      Did you use a limp ruler? 😀 😀 😀

  76. Both the 06Z NAM and 06Z GFS has the next system for Friday
    Dangerously close to us. Even so, throws some light snow all the way
    out to say 495 or so.

    Waiting for 12Z NAM shortly.

    Will post a link to the previous mentioned Canadian Bomb.

  77. I was very wrong. Next week I may have to eat another portion of crow. Old Salty’s post last night referencing the dew point (22 at the time) should have changed my mind on this one. In any case, it’s nice to see some snow. I do like winter. And let’s hope winter will indeed make a sustained come-back after this weekend’s thaw. If that happens, I’ll be happily devouring more crow!

    1. Hey Joshua,

      We all eat ample crow around here.
      I’m getting used to its taste.
      Welcome to the club. 😀 😀 😀

      1. Just for the sake of argument. Do we have to eat crow? I would like to propose we change that to something like duck.

        2. Yes, duck would taste good. But, I think I deserve crow after all my definitive statements that Boston would have no snow. It’s called hubris – great Greek word – and I hurled it at you all and the Gods came after me.

    2. I just ate mine. I figured this thing would fizzle…I had a downpour of snow for a while…easily 3-4″ by now…

  79. I am also watching the possible storm for Friday. The snow ratio’s will be much better for that one, which will help with the “fluff-factor”.

    1. Thats pretty darn close! Closer than a couple days ago which had the precip no further north than VA. That gives the Cape a couple inches of fluff

      1. It is fighting the Polar Vortex. If you look at the progression
        of the 500mb charts day by day, you will see it graphically.

        I’ve been showing this, the last couple of days.

        We need the PV to either wobble some to the West OR
        relax a bit and drift to the North. Else, not much chance
        it gets up here. Btw, if that were to happen, the system would
        be more intense than depicted above.

  81. I was very wrong about snow near the coast. Thats ok, it looks nice. I wonder if there’s any at my house ?

    Snow has pretty much stopped here.

    1. Stopped here too Tom and we are planning an eat Turkey event later for all of us who thought no snow near the coast.

          1. Yes off the roof. A few years ago in the Winter From Hell I never did and eventually got a roof leak. I have since moved, but now I have this constant fear of another issue…I raked the last time (~8″) but on a two story house it’s way easier not to.

            1. I used to get ice damns all of the time
              and it leaked into the house.

              Last time I had the roof done, I had
              them install copper sheeting that covered
              the 1st 10-15 feet from the gutter up.

              Never had a problem since. 😀

              1. Yeah funny my last house had no ice shield installed (similar to what you described). Now I have a hip roof which is good in a way as weight is even distributed across all sides, but sucks to rake as I have to rake 4 sides instead of 2.

              2. copper sheeting over or under the shingles OS? I have the barrier on my back, north facing, very, very large and not steep roof and the ice can form up 9-12 feet. I learned if I rake it, the dam will just form higher up and go beyond the barrier under the shingles.

            2. We have one area where two additions are joined that totally destroy our porch and some of the adjoining master BR two years ago with leaks. We had it fixed but it hasn’t been tested and I can’t imagine we will ever take the chance of not raking it. However, single story and easy 5 minute job.

              1. Yeah my first house was a ranch and I could roof rake it in minutes. Now I have a two story…I can just about clear the first 1-2 feet which I suppose is better than nothing. Big house, big problems right?

                1. I never rake the entire roof – have learned that is a mistake. It’s a ranch but 2300+ sq feet with one monster roof in the back so more roof area than a 2 story but much easier to reach except for the largest roof which is of course the one that causes problems.

    2. A couple of flakes remain here at the office.

      Pretty quick hitter, eh?

      Nice little event. No big deal, but certainly pretty.

      Moving on….

  85. Friday’s storm could clip the Cape and the Islands. Maybe Nantucket gets its private snowstorm. They don’t get much down there, so this may be their chance. Cape Cod and the Islands can be gorgeous in a snowstorm.

  86. It sure looks pretty down here in Plymouth with the snow on the trees. However, on the ground is a gross slushy mess. But since I wasn’t expect anything I am happy to have it at least look like a winter wonderland. 🙂

  88. Still too close for comfort with that Friday storm and then next Tuesday will see I am. I am happy right now with the 3 inches and it looks like winter again.

    1. Looks like the areas that were supposed to receive more, got less, and the areas that were supposed to get less, got more. Everyone is happy!

  91. Todd Gutner Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ
    Storm will be way offshore but ocean effect flakes all the way up the coast to Boston…Winter is back!

    Todd Gutner Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ
    Marching on…good chance of accumulating snow for The Cape late Thu night and Fri AM…ocean effect + storm grazing!

    1. I hope we all get into the action from that one. The trend north has been slow and steady and is a direct reaction to the continued delay in the cold air that was supposed to have come down by now. All it will take is a slight weakening or wobble of that PV and we get slammed. My guy feeling is we get more than just a few clouds and flurries here in eastern MA but not the brunt of it

    2. I’m not forecasting this, BUT if the winds turn just enough so that there
      is a component off of the water, with the cold air in place on Friday, Could we
      possibly be looking at an “Ocean Effect” snow event???? 😀 😀 😀

      I’m really jogging my memory banks here, but I do remember an event
      in the late 60s where there was a storm to the South that never did make it up
      here, but it was cold and the wind turned just enough, that we had a general
      4-8 inch “Ocean Effect” snow storm in all of Eastern MA. 😀 😀

      Wishful thinking probably, but something to watch. 😀

        1. Wow, talk about a sharp cutoff!

          Theres gonna be a battle ground going on there and we will be right on the edge

  95. It seems to me with a slight shift for Thurs night Friday more areas of SNE could get into some snowfall. Waiting on the 12z GFS and EURO for that threat along with the one early next week.

  98. Snow stopped here a while ago. It is beautiful…..snow on all trees, roofs, landscape backed by a winter gray sky. What’s not to love?

  99. TK, you’ll appreciate this from Washington state I believe…

    “Freezing weather with light snow flurries greeted about 200 climate activists gathered on the steps of the state Capitol noon Monday to demand the state Legislature get serious about climate change.”

  100. Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ
    Look at latest guidance suggests a sideswiping of light snow southeastern MA late tomorrow night and out of here early Friday.

  101. It would not take much to shift that storm for this Friday, look at this storm just two days from nothing to what we got.

          1. Ace,

            Be careful when using that snow map.

            You used “Total”, which would include snow
            from TODAY after 7AM.

            That is why i Selected 24 hours for the Friday.
            See my post for a real snow total.

  103. As I always say anytime there is low pressure on the east coast it needs to be watched. As pointed out just the slighest shift could may a big difference. The 12z runs and 0z runs will be interesting to see.

  104. OS I remember a storm two years just like this one coming up that was forecast on a similar track and about 12 hours prior it moved west and nailed us with a foot of snow.

    1. Yup, it HAS happened before, that is why it needs to be watched. One never
      knows when the PV decide to wobble. 😀

    2. Yes I remember that one. We were comparing the nam run to the actual radar and noticed that the precip was much further north than expected.

  108. WeatherWiz, I opened my roof rake from two years ago after the Dec storm and what do you know it is missing a part. Still waiting after two and a half weeks for the part to arrive. Couldn’t even rake if I wanted to.

        1. I had a roof rake like that I junked when I moved this Spring…I know that part I think. I now have the Avalance Rake (plastic with rollers) that works well.

          1. Nice. I didn’t experience any leaks two years ago, but having water in the basement before, don’t want any more in the house from the roof too.

              1. It came from the floor from the water table rising though. I would need to do French drains I think. sump pump wasn’t enough.

  109. I think we need to watch out as everyone as alluded to over the next ten days. The models may not be latching on to things just right right now because the PV keeps shifting with each run and makes all the difference in the world. There has been that moisture plume off the pacific for several days now and it just takes a little movement to jog it north as we saw with this one.

  111. The most I have received from one event was 3.5″ two years ago. Now all of the sudden we may get that on Friday. Nice little change if this does occur.

  112. Hmmm, tuesdays event looks like a non-event, at least on the 12Z GFS. The jet digs but not quite enough. Forms a weak storm but way OTS. Plenty of time for that one to change. On to the 12Z EURO!

  113. 4.5″ in Coventry, CT and now sitting at 30.5″ for the season. Well on our way to above normal snowfall here for the season – what a stark contrast to the coastal areas.

    The continued northward trend in the models with the Friday storm cannot be discounted, especially with what just happened with the last two events. If you are SE of a BOS-PVD-New London line, I think you are going to be shoveling and I would not be surprised to see 6″+ on the Cape and Islands. The center of the storm will be well SE of the benchmark but the precip shield will extend a significant distance NW of the storm center.

    1. Mark whats interesting here in CT we have snow surpluses both inland and at the shore where a lot of areas across the country have snowfall deficits. I believe were up to 19 inches for
      inland and close to 20 inches for the shore. Of course 8.3 of that total on the shore happened back on November 7th which
      was the biggest snowstorm on record for November for the shore.

      1. At my house, I received 9″ in November from the early season Noreaster and a late month elevation dependent storm. In December, we got 16″ between the three storms xmas week. Now the 4.5″ from this storm in Jan and we will probably be adding to that in the next couple weeks.

    2. Mark, what was your total last year? I seem to remember your area of CT getting a couple storms that produced more snow than forecasted. Seems to be the trend, coastal CT with the jackpot.

      1. Ace, we got 26″ total last season but 10″ of that was from the October storm. My location is fairly far inland (about 15 miles east of Hartford and we are at 700′ in elevation which helps)

  115. Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ

    Boston’s snowfall @ Logan Airport is 3.2″ which makes the seasonal total so far a whopping 7″!

  116. Marshfield’s wind is around to 060 degrees at a whopping 3 knots. Temp and dewpoint have jumped to back to 37F.

  117. We are getting there folks, I think the next month will be very interesting. Plenty of cold and potential chances. I know some are doubting the cold, but I think it will not be too cold but cold enough for multiple storms. Hang on bc it’s gonna get interesting.

  119. It is going to take the models at least a few more days to zero in on the position of the PV for next week, which will affect the strength and position of the Tuesday and Friday storms. I think we’ll get something next week (one or the other, but not both). Neither looks like a blockbuster to me, but it wouldn’t take much QPF at all to result in significant snow totals with the cold air in place and high snow ratios (i.e. it would only take 0.5″ QPF to give us 10″ of snow with a 20:1 ratio)

  123. Lets just look at the trends so far this year. Everything seems to come more north at the end. I know this time there are different variables to consider, but the trend is def there

  124. Interesting from the HPC

    USED THE 00Z/16 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES
    DAY 3, WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TOWARD THE ECENS MEAN THEREAFTER
    TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SYNOPTIC DETAIL ACROSS THE NATION.
    AS A WHOLE, THE PATTERN IS A DRY ONE FOR THE INTERIOR OF THE
    CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES, WITH CONTINENTAL POLAR AND ARCTIC AIR
    DOMINATING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE BIGGEST THREATS FOR
    SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD ARE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
    COAST DAY 6 AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST DAY 7. THE NEW ENGLAND
    COAST WILL BE VULNERABLE TO SNOW FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT SHOULD
    BEGIN TO DEEPEN UPON REACHING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM.

  125. I had not been up tring to get over this cold.which is over my allergies. I missed the snow but by the looks of it it must of came down a little heivier than expected… sadly it is a rain/freezing rain and sleet mix right now so i expect some melting of the snow we got. looks like we got about 3 or 4 inches. everything is covered.

  126. BB, who I think was caught off-guard by this next event, called for a few inches on Cape and Islands and just flurries in Boston. I really think from the reporting he was not very up-to-date.

    1. As I believe you mentioned earlier,with these sudden nortward trends we have seen lately, I wouldn’t totally rule out snow even up to Boston just yet.

      1. Tonight’s overnight runs will be key. If the northward trend continues like we have seen 24 hours out with recent storms, then I think we zero on even other areas than just the cape getting a good amount.

  128. It was good for Logan to come in with a respectable snow amount (3.2″) for a change. With the grand total so far this winter at 7.0″ and since this being mid-January, the record for the least snow in Boston of 9.0″ set in 1936-37 “should” remain intact. 🙂

    If snow events really start to get going between now and March, those who gave Vicki above normal amounts “might” still have a shot here. There can’t be too many warm-ups.

  130. Its been drizzling lightly here for over an hour and has now turned to sleet. Not a good combination on the roads with what is already there IMHO

    1. i think its going to stay that way. only a few snow showers for the cape and islands and i bet it would be ocean enhanced snow showers do to wind.

  134. Has anyone else noticed lately the EURO has not carried much weight in the forecasts? Is it becoming less reliable?

  135. Hi Brian very nice weather blog ,no idea how I have missed it up to now?
    Saw a link to your site on Woburn Patch today.
    I have a home weather station in Woburn , on the west Side.
    http://pauland.net
    I report rain amounts, but no snow amounts.
    Nice to “meet” you keep up the great work.

    Paul Anderson

    1. Hi Paul!

      I’ve actually seen your data site online before.

      I have been an observer for the state climatologist since 1987 and for the NWS’s River Forecast Center since the 1990s, as well as a Sky Warn Spotter for the NWS.

      I am a senior meteorologist specializing in agricultural and energy weather, but also general forecasting as well.

      Hope you find the blog informative!

  136. Raining with some sleet mixed in here. Temp 34.

    12Z Euro shows OTS for Friday and Tuesday. Not complete enough to know
    about next Friday.

    Canadian, OTS on Friday and now NOTHING for Tuesday.

    Those guys at NEWW are going to have Egg on their face. Wonder IF they will
    say anything? 😀 😀

        1. They are doing their best imitation of a politician as they have started their flip-flopping stage. 😀

  137. The 850 temps reached the I95 belt and a bit west of there as OS correctly forecasted. However, the damage has been done with many areas receiving a few inches of snow. Friday’s event appears to be a miss. We cannot count out next Tuesday. I still think something happens next week.

    1. Yes, but you also correctly pointed out that the bulk of the precipitation
      would fall as snow prior to the increase in 850mb temperatures. 😀

      btw, I not completely convinced that Friday is a miss. The NAM and the GFS, both, have been pretty decent with this frontal zone and the colder air moving in.

      So, as usual around here, we wait and see, while we check out the 18Z and then the 0Z runs as always. 😀

  138. Can’t hinge on each model run. These models are going to continuing struggling with the positioning of the PV and you are going to see storms appear and disappear, and the tracks varying over great distances. Still 6-10 days out on both threats next week.

    Euro has not been terrific and is the outlier here – I think the Friday storm tracks much closer, even if only a grazing. Haven’t checked – are its ensembles consistent with the operational run or closer to the GFS/NAM solution?

  140. Its not really going to cool off tonight. All of western NY is in the mid-upper 30s with a SW wind ahead of the cold front that will offer a cold Friday.

  142. I think someone alluded to this…will all this snow freeze up tonight in the Woburn area? I won’t be able to shovel until later tonight…not sure what I am up against.

    1. On a positive note we will only have to wait till the weekend for it to melt, on a side note I’m happy to see the 1st big snow event, my things broken but we got about 3 inches this am that gas mushed down to about an inch to an inch a half, hope all is well 🙂

  143. This weekends not gonna be all that bad with highs in the 40’s, Sun evening looks to cool down but I’ll take it 🙂

  145. I don’t see a miss for Friday. I see a grazing with most of the energy over the fish. Will wait and see what the 18z and 0z runs say. I am happy with the 3 inches today so if anything happens Friday it will be icing on the cake. I hope we get one of the storm threats next week.

  146. looking at the models so far many small systems (clippers) going from the plains down to the mid atlantic. out to sea. with many close calls.

  148. If we could get one of those clippers to come up the coast like we had back in January 2005 when that was a clipper system that went to the Mid Atlantic coast and came northward bring big time snow amounts to eastern parts of SNE.

  149. DONT DISCOUNT MODELS SO EARLY. THE PATTERN KEEPS SHOWING MISS THAN BANG. GIVE THEM A CHANCE. NO MISS FRIDAY.

          1. Far different indeed. Should we discount since its the 18Z?? Pleeeaseee, can we can we, pleeease?? 🙂

  151. 18Z NAM shows the PV in a perfect spot to crush all the storm’s hopes and dreams. But you are right john, no one model run will show what exactly will happen. The trend is our friend with this.

  153. Figures, I mention potential for snow on Friday, and the 18z NAM makes me look like a fool. We shall see what future runs bring.

    1. I will say this however. It’s only the 18z–poorly initialized and incomplete. Nevethless, I do agree that it’s a miss.

    2. Scott everyone here who has said something here and then had to rethink is eating a nice turkey dinner (rainshine thought it was better than crow). Hmmmmm I wonder if she meant we should go to her house 😉

      Either way you will never look like a fool. You never cease to impress me and I suspect everyone here !

    3. I agree with Vicki, Scott.

      And everyone is welcome to come to my house for turkey! 🙂 Please feel free to bring desserts – I like to bake and cook – so I’ll make the stuffing, gravy and vegs.! Hey, I’m getting hungry for turkey now!! 🙂 🙂

  154. Again, Friday will be a miss. Perhaps far outer cape gets grazed with a coating if anything.

    Next week looks to become active for us weather watchers. Not sure if anything will actually hit us but there are two chances–one early and one late in the week. There is more of a chance that one of those coastals will hit us than this friday’s non-event.

      1. John. I’ve been pretty spot on for the past two storms, which I might add, are the only storms we’ve had so far. Not sure what you’re looking at my friend;)

        1. You crack me up. I have not missed yet. We went down this road before you and I, remember you said no way for snow. If I’m wrong, well so be it. One of those storms hits next week. Please let it be a weekend storm. Snow removal on straight time sucks. These debates we have I like, as I like you. You know your weather, I just disagree from time to time.

          1. John. It’s all in good fun. Your predictions whether it be scientific or from the heart are welcome by all here:)

            1. I know that. There both, and gut as well. MLK weekend was just a gut guess. It always seems there is a storm every year around that weekend. I’m still going with light am snow for friday. I like tk have a feeling on next week. This is a guess that the one we have been wating hits next Tuesday or Friday night, please Friday.

          2. John you’ll be eating turkey with the rest of us. You need to read the blog I mentioned last night when you keep saying what went wrong.

  155. Hello Everyone,

    If you look at the Euro its a miss but has trended a bit closer to the coast. The 18z nam is a little concern that its shifted out to sea more but again isn’t all that reliable. Then the storm is close by and things will change this won’t be a complete miss for the coast. Have a good afternoon!

  160. Still a good slug of snow coming down right now through central NE and into ME. We are stuck in between that and a band of rain to the south. Surprised to see this.

    1. Interesting that the echos are moving due East. There is virtually NO
      Northward movement to it. No wonder Friday will miss.

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

      This is supposed to be the 500mb chart at 4PM????

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/18/nam_namer_003_500_vort_ht.gif

      WHY, then, are the echos moving West to East, instead of SW to NE?

      I don’t get that????

      1. OS, looking at the national radar, that system down in the SE, is that the friday storm? If it is, it looks like its connected to our storm from today. Unless im totally seeing that wrong.

        1. Here is the most recent surface map from TWC

          http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/currentweatherusnational/uscurrentweather_large.html

          Here is the projected 500MB chart for 4PM.

          http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_000_500_vort_ht.gif

          So, our Friday storm will come from something somewhere on that stationary front on the boundary of
          Mississippi and Alabama. Somewhere in that area, well actually it gets its act together a little East of there and it will move Northeastward towards the NC/VA coast.

          As depicted here:

          http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011618&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=018

          1. I think that the energy in the upper great lakes is what is going to send Friday’s storm OTS. That can still change though.

  161. I think tomorrow, watching the radar will be more important than watching each model run. We’ll need to watch to see where the precip and storm center are setting up and compare that to the model runs, etc.

    1. Radar will be useless Acemaster. The storm will look as if it’s moving right toward us per radar. However, at the last minute, as OS has pointed out, the northern jet will shunt the precip due east and OTC unfortunately. If people rely on the radar, it will appear as if SNE gets hit, but they will get burned in the end.

      1. Migration of 500MB chart to demonstrate the effects of the Polar Vortex…

        24Hours:

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011618&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=012

        30 hours:

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011618&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=030

        36 hours:

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011618&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=036

        42 hours

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011618&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=042

          1. Exactly, it will appear as if the storm is coming right toward us but at the last minute, it literally gets shoved out to sea. Hence, radar watching will not be convincing unless the precip is literally right on top of us–which it won’t be.

  162. The 18z NAM should be discounted for two reasons. One, it is outside of 36 hours from storm commencement. And two, it’s poorly initialized. Nevertheless, Boston won’t see a flake on Friday. Believe me. I hope I’m wrong. I’m as big a snow lover as it comes. But, Friday is a miss. I’m not so certain next week is a miss however.

  164. Matt talking trash over at NEWW and putting them on the defensive……nice!

    (that being said I do agree with them that the Cape has a decent chance of accumulating snow Friday)

        1. John,

          Scroll up at what Mark said. He mention accumulating snow for the CAPE–not Boston. I merely was making reference to the cape, not Boston.

  166. HI ALL!!!

    Busy day kept me away from the blog for much of it. (BTW that will be changing in the not-too-distant future.)

    A new blog update will be a work-in-progress shortly and be posted by mid evening.

    I think Cape Cod sees accumulating snow Thursday night but not TOO much.

    Tuesday’s threat is probably going to end up mostly OTS.

    It’s far away but I have a funny feeling about the system for January 25/26……. more on this later.

  168. Friday’s storm gave us a chance of possibly seeing snow on the coast. Of course it won’t come to fruition!!! At least we actually did get a little here today to make it look pretty. Just watched Todd and he is calling for a grazing. Perhaps next Friday will be the “big one”. Happy Hump Day everyone!!!

  169. Tom/ coastal 1-3 inches for here around dawn Friday morning, I need that truck. This information comes from Pete. Also said if jogs north Boston on the action as well, I think that will happen. I’m guessing some 6inch spots down here, maybe Marshfield as its closer to the water’s edge.

    1. That would be nice but my gut tells me that we see a few flurries on the South Shore and that’s about it. Time will tell.

          1. Me too. I’m wishing it your way for what that’s worth. I’m glad you had some today :). I was hoping it would at least get John some OT too

            1. I would have been just as happy sitting on your deck having tea and watching the snow in Framingham. 🙂

  170. Personally from what I see I think it’s to Far East, maybe plymouth southward get a few snowshowers,, I think the cold pushes it ots, what did Logan receive from this past snow event? Have a great evening

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