Next Storm’s A Cape Scrape

85 Comments

7:21PM

The messy midweek storm is about done with only lingering drizzle & rain over southeastern and eastern MA as well as RI and spotty mixed precipitation to the north and west, all set to wind down and end overnight. If you have slush and/or snow out there that has not been moved yet, it will be wise to have it moved tonight as it will freeze up overnight and even more-so tomorrow night as we see the a preview push of very cold air from an Arctic reservoir of air in Canada, otherwise known as the Polar Vortex. This will be dominating the weather pattern in the next week or so, with several shots of cold to very cold air. A milder interlude after Friday’s cold shot will take place Saturday into Sunday, but by later Sunday the first in a series of much colder shots of air will get here, just in time for the Patriots / Ravens NFL AFC Championship game at Foxboro!

In terms of snow threats, low pressure will be developing off the Mid Atlantic Coast and intensifying as it passes south of Cape Cod Thursday night through early Friday.  This looks like it will scrape Cape Cod with some accumulating snow but should largely be a miss for the majority of the region. Another storm offshore around next Tuesday looks like it will stay mainly out to sea at this time. Another threat looms later next week but is much too far away to really have any idea what may happen with that one.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog and a few periods of light snow & rain to start, then breaking clouds and eventual clearing west to east. Watch for the formation of icy spots on untreated surfaces. Lows 25-30. Wind light variable becoming W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine mixed with clouds. An isolated rain or snow shower over northern MA and southern NH. Highs 37-42. Wind W around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow with up to 1-3 inches possible over Cape Cod and the Islands and perhaps far southern RI, and a little light snow with under 1 inch near the Cape Cod Canal, with nothing to the north. Lows 20-25. Wind variable becoming NE for a while in southeastern MA and RI up to 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 43.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 28. High 40 midday then falling.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 21.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 11. High 22.

WEDNESDAY: Clearing. Low 1. High 16.

85 thoughts on “Next Storm’s A Cape Scrape”

  1. Thanks tk, it’s was nice to see a little snow but now the slow meltdown begins, have a good night 🙂

    1. For temps climbing just above freezing today, we lost quite a bit of snow, at least here in Easton. Got around 4″ and just got home from work and theres barely an inch.

        1. Same here…had probably 4″ or so on the west side…came home expecting the worse and a heaving coating was left in the driveway. Easy to pick up.

          1. We got about 3 inches, it’s down to an inch an a half, just came in and it hasn’t started freezing, snow is still slushy, I agree alot has melted though, earlier there was a heavy 3 inches on all the trees and it was nice and then poof it had all fallen, anyways going to bed goodnite 🙂

    1. Surprised he has snow all the way to NH for Friday…granted it’s minimal but certainly not OTS.

    2. Interesting Scott. Thank you.

      This is what I took from his Discussion:

      The weighting of all ensemble solutions is north – that is, more members are north than along or south of the current forecast track.

      Still need to keep an eye on this little bugger.
      😀

    1. I have been to every one, including the ones BEFORE they were even called the SNE Weather Conference. 🙂

      It could be a little cheaper, but it’s a great day!

    2. Highly recommend it !!! Presentations are of excellent quality ! And, there is an opportunity to meet the weather professionals from the media. Also, an opportunity to maybe meet people from this blog.

  8. Thank you TK, but you disappointed me. 😀

    You TEASED us re: your funny feeling about a system around the 25th or 26th, yet
    you didn’t mention one word in your blog update. 😀

    What’s up with that??? C’mon spill the beans. 😀

    2. LOL I knew you’d pick up on that. More later meant, later later… 😉

      But since you asked: I just have a feeling that it’s going to end up as a widespread measurable snow event. Nothing more I really can say yet. 🙂

      1. 😀 well ok, but you know we’ll be digging to see what you see or
        what could possibly lead to your thinking. 😀

        2. Hint # 1:

          http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=216&fixhh=1&hh=240

          Hint # 2:

          http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=228&fixhh=1&hh=240

          1/2 hint # 3:

          http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

          Hint #5:

          http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

          More coming after 0Z runs and tomorrow’s 12Z runs.
          And we’ll keep em coming till you spill the beans.

          Hint #6: You looked into your crystal ball and you saw that the PV is going to relax just enough to allow phasing
          and a storm to come up the coast and/or a clipper
          coming out to the coast south of us and turning up the coast. 😀 😀 😀

          1. Yes excellent reviews on that. Took one for a ride last Saturday, rides like a Cadillac. Big backseat as well for my son.

            1. I’m a Toyota fan but know a lot who use the F150 to haul their horses. War horse of an engine. If I were getting something along the lines you want, I’d get that. And that goes a long way since I’m not a ford fan

  14. 0Z NAM is cooking. Out to hr 34 and so far looks like same ole same ole.
    I see the complete erosion of the 500mb energy by the Polar Vortex, weakening
    the storm and forcing it S & E.

          2. Wonder if a cold northerly wind (falling through the 20s) could offer up enough of a temp differential with the mid 40s ocean to create a little ocean effect precip in Marshfield.

  15. Well, I saw 13F for next Wednesday from Harvey and TK’s got 16F. If that comes true, its more Turkey for me !!! 🙂

    1. For me, too. Turkey, duck, crow. Whatever. I’m looking forward to it if it happens. I really like it seriously cold, especially when I run. Nothing beats that. I realize I’m an outlier.

      1. Me as well if it happens, but I still have some belief that we will not see a long lasting outbreak and maybe a day to two of extreme and then back close to normal. We shall see.

  16. Why are you folks including Mr TK who is the founder of this blog bashing like little kids the competition….NEWW. You all need to criticize with professionalism. It really is getting old. It starts with you TK. I hope you post but you don’t have to. Ihave to admit you do have a good group and I enjoy you all. I also enjoy NEWW.

    1. You are absolutely right. I don’t think of them as competition though. I do think of them as just another outlet for weather, like my own blog. They just have their own style.

      Forecasts should speak for themselves. And a higher road should be taken.

      Please continue to enjoy the blog and thank you for your comment. 🙂

      1. He’s ok.

        There are a lot of readers that don’t typically post.

        I’m not going to worry about what other outlets say. I may or may not communicate with them, but I’m just going to let my own forecasts do the talking.

      1. I’ve been guilty myself of ‘making fun of’ things.

        Disagreeing with one’s presentation or idea is fine. But there’s a better way to go about it. That better way will be practiced.

        1. We are all guilty of being caught in the moment. We are human and It’s why we are all eating turkey at rainshines. It can apply to more than just a missed forecast. Ask Dennis and Kenny 😉

  17. Was the cmc the only model that showed the tues potential? I cant find any other guidance that has this feature at a reasonable shot of giving us any snow.

  19. Regarding the above comment by Jack. Please allow the opinion to stand. In thinking about this, maybe it’s easy sometimes to poke fun at something, but when it comes down to forecasting, I’m choosing to go about weather discussions among any fellow forecasters with civility. I want to grow this blog, not compromise it.

    It’s easy to get competitive. But the main objective is to inform, educate, and even protect. That is what will be done here.

    1. Nice TK. I love your response and it is because of you and that you respect the question that this blog is growing. As you know I just MAY have mentioned (not subtly because we know that isnt my middle name) not being in favor of discrediting another met no matter how much someone disagrees with the forecast.

      1. Thanks Vicki. I’ve actually gotten to know NEWW a bit. I’m not going to judge the person behind the letters based on whether I agree or disagree with a forecast they make or how far ahead they may look or what they post on their own site…

        When it comes down to it, it is their site, and one can choose to read what is there or not. The same would apply to my own blog. I just hope that what I produce here is of use and interest to many. 🙂

        1. TK one thing you NEVER need to question is the integrity and quality of this blog. Do remember the other day I said of all my faults telling untruths is not one. Nor do I give praise just to do so. There is a remarkable amount of respect here – for you and for each other.

          2. Adding that if it was neww that had the maps with targets and bombs they were looking for a reaction and we were laughing with them. I’m too tired to look to see who it was tho.

            1. I kinda like the targets and bombs, if you want me to be honest. 🙂

              I’m not sure I’d use the same graphics that far in advance myself, but again, if you wanna take a stab at something longer range, go for it. 🙂

  20. Jack you are right. I just have an issue with how they sensationalize the weather. They are on a public forum so people plan based on their forecast. I also think they get more wrong than right.

  21. With the snow and relative chill of the day, it was a little more like winter.

    And yet, today is going into the books with anomolies of +4F to +6F.

  22. I’m going to be extremely stubborn and say it wont be in the mid teens for highs next Wednesday.

    I think there’s two things that may prevent it. One I’m sure of, one is a guess.

    The guess : its still 6 full days away and somethings bound to change.

    The certainty : the sun is climbing higher in the sky. This Friday is 4 weeks past the solstice. By early next week, Boston’s gaining 2 mins of light per day and .3 degrees of solar angle per day. The paradox of extreme cold is that usually, it comes with sunshine. I’ll take my chances that the 10:30am to 12:30pm sun of mid, bordering on late January can have a bit of effect. It wont turn 13 or 16F into 35F, but it might get it towards or a little over 20F.

    1. You may be right, but there have been a whole lot of days in Boston’s history after January 20 that were in the teens. 🙂

      So we shall see!

      1. Yes. I have a weather book by, I think its David Ludlam, pretty decent monthly synopsis’.

        Anyhow, in the back there are all kinds of records for New England and I distinctly remember seeing recorded days in mid-February whose highs in Boston, were well below zero.

        I’ll have to try to dig that book out. Its around somewhere.

  23. I think it will end miler as well, that has been the tendency so far these last few weeks. Not hat 21-24 is mild! 🙂

  24. TWC just said they are leaning away from the GFS and more towards the NAM southern solution for the south snowfall tonight and tomorrow. Didn’t the NAM also show nothing here on Friday?

  25. The Patriots game looks like 30-35 degrees kickoff, and mid 20’s at games end, winds could be gusting close to 25-30mph, which will make it feel colder, will c,, Go Patriots!!

  26. looks like temps will actually be winter like next week. for everyone saying this is an artic blast .. As i look. the temperatures that we are going to get tomrrow is actually normal 😛 well for my area anyway here in Billerica until late next week when we go below normal 😀

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