Cold Preview

256 Comments

3:28AM

As a wave of low pressure sent snow over the top of southeastern New England during the night, dry air pushing down from the north has prevented the snow from reaching the ground in much of the region except  parts of Cape Cod and the Islands. After a brief shot of ocean-effect snow showers over the Outer Cape, any snow activity will push out to sea early today, leaving the region dry and much colder. A low pressure area pivoting around the southern edge of the Polar Vortex will pass north of New England, dragging milder air in with it Saturday into early Sunday, but a strong arctic cold front will pass through during the day Sunday, initiating a temperature fall which will be underway in earnest during the Patriots/Ravens game on Sunday evening. This will lead to about 4 days of very cold weather as arctic air dominates the region. A storm threat being watched for Monday night and Tuesday is increasingly looking like it will materialize too far out to sea to bring significant snow, but a period of snow especially in southeastern areas is possible. This system will serve to bring down even stronger wind and more intense cold during the middle of the week. Despite some model forecasts of a quick warm-up late in the week I am reluctant to buy into this and believe, though we may moderate, that the pattern will remain chilly, and we may even need to eye a potential winter storm of some type during the January 25-27 time-frame. Plenty of time to watch for this possibility.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow over Cape Cod and the Islands with up to an inch or  2 accumulation. A few snow flakes in the air toward Plymouth County but no accumulation. Lows drop to the 10s north to 20s south. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Any morning clouds and lingering snow over Cape Cod pushing out to sea, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-20.  Wind NW to W 10-15 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 40s. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with a passing rain or snow shower morning through early afternoon. Slight chance of a heavier snow squall. Partly cloudy to sunny rest of day. Highs 40-45 in the morning, falling through the 30s in the afternoon. Wind SW 15-25 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW. Foxboro MA outlook for the AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Ravens: Mostly clear, gusty NW wind, kick-off temperature in the upper 20s, end-of-game temperature in the lower 20s with wind chill closing in on zero at times.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Sunny. Low 6. High 21.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers. Low 3. High 20.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 1. High 17.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 20.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 4. High 27.

256 thoughts on “Cold Preview”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Well, good for Nantucket. I see a few obs of moderate snow, surrounded by more obs of light snow. Its time they got a chance for once. During most storms, how many times most areas will have snow and Nantucket will be 40F or higher with rain.

    1. Guess I should say that for Chatham, as well. Even a couple of S+’s in their obs as well.

      As best as I can tell from obs and looking outside, I dont think it snowed in Marshfield.

        1. Al Roker said NC has had more snow than Chicago this winter. Don’t know figures. And yay for Nantucket!!

  2. Waking up to a near average low this morning at Logan of 21 and an above average low at my house of 25 in North Attleboro. Lets see if the temp rises at all today. I recall some meta had today in the low to mid 20’s earlier in the week, but looks like we may be higher than that and closer to 30 today.

    1. A bitter blast, wouldn’t you say OS 😉

      Just kidding! You are right that it does feel like winter. 19.6 here and will be interesting to see what it reaches later in the day.

      1. 20 at my house. Should get close to 32 later today, Worse case
        upper 20s.

        Still, this is perfectly normal.

        You know, let me soap box normal.

        we hear mets talk about normal high being 36 etc etc.
        BS The average high is 36. Perfectly normal for the
        high to be 26 or even 16 or 46 or 56 for that matter.

        My gripe for the day.

        1. I like your soap box – room for two up there 😉

          That’s exactly I was kidding about and I totally agree. And one of the reasons I really, really dislike the term new normal.

      1. I saw that too, but the pendulum keeps swinging on the models both in terms of timing, track and intensity. We will be lucky to see model agreement even a week from now. In between now and then, we’ll see every model solution you can think of.

  9. First time this winter the air feels winter dry. Even when we had a couple very brief cold spells earlier the air still felt “marine” which was evident in heavy frost on my windshield every time it dipped below 32 at night. This morning, no frost. First time our air has truly come from Canada and it feels great!

  10. Dont worry folks, i know we are used to temps moderating during the day to more than forecast, but no one gets a sniff at 30 today 🙂

        1. It’d be a very tough adjustment for me but I would love to visit Australia. When my husband lived in South Africa he said that it never really seemed like Christmas and he prefers summer weather.

  17. From NWS, still a watcher

    THE WORK WEEK…
    MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ARCTIC PLUNGE.
    FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE ARCTIC AIR
    MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. LOOKS AS IF MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
    SEE THE COOLEST TEMPS EC BRING -25C AT 850 MB OVER THE ENTIRE
    AREA. EC ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW A COASTAL STORM THAT WILL MOVE
    SOUTH AND EAST OF ACK ON MON NIGHT/TUESDAY. WITH THE EC/EC
    ENSEMBLE/AND A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING THIS SYSTEM HAVE
    CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS/SE COASTAL MASS. STILL A
    LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH AS IT
    GETS CLOSER. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH WED AND INTO
    THURSDAY UNTIL A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

    1. 😀

      Agree.

      We’ll keep watching to see how it evolves. Let’s hope it does NOT
      trend towards a rain event.

      1. Btw,

        Not sure Tuesday is completely off the shelf just yet.
        It may very well be, but it still needs to be watched. 😀

  19. Thanks, TK.

    I believe that we will get something nxt. wknd. It seems to me that after a very cold spell and it gets milder we get a storm. Works the other way, too, I think. (big storm then gets very cold). There must be some meteorological reason for it – I could prob’ly guess but not sure.

  20. Latest Water Temp:

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Jan 18 2013, 8:50 am EST

    Water Temperature: 43.7 °F (6.5 °C)

    1. I wondered that too. Not sure about 40. That’s a lot of water!

      It needs to be calm and cold IMHO. Upwelling from storms and wind will keep it “warmer”

  22. It’s dangerous to look at guidance for temps in a cold spell like this and in the summer when they predict mid 90’s and it ends up 80’s. I think guidance always overdoes temps in winter during a cold spell and vice versa in summer.

  23. With 4 nights with lows in the teens or single digits might do the trick.

    Remember just last week temps were 45.7 so that’s two degrees without much cold.

    1. If it gets as cold as advertised, I don’t think that 40 is out of the question,
      but it might be more like 41 or 41.5. We’ll see and watch.

      1. I’m actually looking forward to watching that. We need something to watch after all.

        I’m thinking big picture on this. Meaning, if we can get a cold 4-6 weeks and the water temp gets down to the mid 30’s, that’ll help out for any potential nice storms in March.

  24. Most of UK getting blasted with snow. Not all of UK, ‘though. Parts of Scotland not that bad. England seems to be getting brunt of it.

    1. That’s what happens when Atlantic Lows bump up against a stubborn and cold Scandinavian High. Battle ground tends to be Northern England and not Southern, from what I remember when I lived in Europe. They can get walloped.

      By the way, I’m very happy for Nantucket. They had their private snowstorm. Good for them! As Tom said, Nantucket misses out on almost all of our snowstorms. April 1997 all rain. Even the blizzard of 78 produced rain with some snow on Nantucket.

      1. Thanks, Joshua for the info. I have some relatives in England so I like to keep up w/what’s going on over there.

        I, too, am happy for Nantucket. It must be a pretty sight, the snow along the beach, etc. ‘Though I have been to the beach many times in my life, I don’t recall being at the beach in the winter. Although my grandparents did live in Winthrop for a time so maybe I just can’t remember. Oh, well! Getting old! 🙂

        1. Its nice. Where I grew in Marshfield the beach was right up beside my house, a minute walk. Really nice beach. You pretty much have the beach to yourself with the exception of a few walkers. Having the beach all to yourself is extreamly tranquil, the peace of mind to just enjoy it however you want. Think about the smell, sound of the waves crashing, the seagulls singing away. Now that’s what I call some nice meditation.

          2. Thank you John! That is very beautifully written! Makes me want to go to the beach right now – really! 🙂

            1. Told my husband and he says too cold! 🙂

              He grew up in Hull. He has good memories of the people there but is not a beach lover, like I am. Meaning, I prefer a walk on the beach rather than just lying on the beach. You were indeed lucky to live where you did.

          3. Another good time for the beach was September and October. September even more. The summer crowd is gone and what was a full beach for the past few months is now empty and all yours, and still warm enough outside where you could go for a swim. My summer’s in Marshfield are some of the best memories I have.

            2. great memories John. I actually think I like the beach better in winter than summer but it’s close. We enjoyed last January there soooo much. Rainshine, like you I enjoy the walking but also sitting and watching. I’m not a sun sitter.

              It’s also a good time to rent – the price is about 2/3 for a month that you normally pay for a week in summer.

  25. 12Z NAM says NO for Tuesday. Still too much PV.
    We’ll see what 12Z Euro, Canadian and GFS have to say. 😀

  28. Was anyone other than I surprised that there were hikers on Washington yesterday? I had mentioned the avalanche risk not more than a couple of weeks ago with the varying temps up there.

    2. I was, Vicki. My husband and me used to do a lot of hiking – daytime hiking, nothing major. But I still have some knowledge about hiking, etc. We belonged to the AMC. I don’t know why people ignore safety warnings. Maybe it’s all the extreme competition stuff on tv.

      1. They were trying to raise money/awareness for the special warrior foundation. I admire that but am surprised by the manner they chose to do it. I believe they are all safe – clearly a good thing – but also think it had to put rescuers at risk too.

        1. I am glad they are all safe and it is for a good cause. But, like you, I wish they had taken a safer way to do it.

      1. Just a stab in the dark. I want to see how close I get. As far as more precision, it will happen at 1:55pm, although the wildcard will be; are temps going to rise before midnight?

  32. Now that the very cold air is in, it will be interesting to watch the next couple hours what the 4 week past solstice sun can or cannot do to the temperatures.

    On a technical note, when its early February and we look back on January’s data and no one can remember individual days, today will not look very cold because just after midnight, I think Boston was around 30F, Worcester in the mid 20s, so the recorded high temps will be somewhat deceiving.

  33. 12Z GFS…

    Very very close call for Tuesday, just brushing the Cape and Islands.

    A snow to rain to snow event for the 26th.

    Certainly, it is beginning to add up to something on or around the 26th. 😀

    2. It will, that is not the final solution. Look at how cold right before the storm. No way low travels that far north.

  34. normal today warm saturday and the front sunday night. normal for next week for once. storms misses us or just brushes the islands and the cape.

    1. No. The Average high for this date is 35 (according to Accuweather).
      Note that is average. It is perfectly NORMAL for the high to be 25.
      You really have to get into a statistical study and look at the standard
      deviation of that high temperature.

      I don’t know what it is. But let’s for argument sake, say the average high is 35 with a standard deviation of 5 degrees. Then about 68% the high would be between 30 and 40. 95% of the time between 25 and 45 and 97.5% of the time between 20 and 50. Then you can see that a high of 20 or 25 is actually
      perfectly normal.

      Sorry, it is a pet peeve of mine. Soap Box #2 for today.

      😀 😀 😀

  36. Mark Rosenthal was on WBZ radio overnight last night between midnight and 1:00 am with Morgan White. I posted my thoughts on TK’s previous blog early this morning and we had a brief discussion back and forth about it. 🙂

    Here is Mark’s website: http://www.weatherblast.com

  37. Curious to see if the EURO holds onto at least something for next weekend. Maybe this will be the storm that breaks its slump 🙂

  41. Joe is banking on storms blowing up and loosening the cold which might happen. I just don’t see how this happens next weekend. I also can’t buy into a solution that shows that storm coming this far north. I suspect you will see an adjustment south next week.

  43. Good read from Joe, TJ. I take that with a grain of salt though. Hes just reacting to the model runs from yesterday and today. Hes basically spitting them out verbatum, which isnt anything different from what we do on here. IF that happens, i wont be very happy. Bit its over 7 days away and we all know anything can happen between now and then.

  45. Models trended much further east for late next week storm. Could be awfully white around these parts by the start of next weekend.

      1. PV retreats just enough to allow secondary development to track near or over the BM. Still plenty of cold to keep storm supressed to our south and provide SNE with potential major snows.

    1. Trouble is …. it has already made it to 29F, which it was right after midnight. So, officially, thats the high. Thats the literal side of me. 🙂

      I do get what you are saying though and I agree.

      It is interesting that the full sun has been good for 5F so far since the temp bottomed out at 19F a few hours back.

    1. Getting there. But I liked the 0Z representation much better. 😀
      Still a long, long way to go 😀

      1. Depends on where it goes from there and how strong. Impossible to see in these crappy 24hr increments. Waiting for wundermap to finish up

    1. Well maybe it’s me. When I opened your link I didn’t see what I just posted,
      but it looks like everyone else saw it correctly.

      Now I see what you mean when 24 hours later it’s gone. My comment, however stands. Will see what Wundermap shows. I’ll post a link.

      1. That’s the problem with advancement in weather models. Not much sneaks up on us anymore. Instead, we have to sweat it out for a week!

  55. Great football weather, a little windy but I think with flacccos big high miracle like pass’s will hopefully be wounded ducks,, Go Patriots!!

  56. Looks like the arctic cold front moves through a bit later on Sunday. Wonder if the true cold air wont arrive until after the game is over ?

      1. When is the last time the JMA was correct? — or the NOGAPS for that matter although I find the NOGAPS more accurate than the japanese model. I can’t recall.

          1. Didn’t you hear? TWC has already named
            Tuesday’s storm: GODZILLA!!! 😀
            And next Friday’s: MOTHRA 😀

        2. Actually,

          I have been watching the JMA for more than a year now.
          In my opinion, and it is strictly mine, I feel that the
          JMA is FAR, FAR superior to the NOGAPS.

          IS it up to par with the Euro? No Way. Is it up to par with the GFS? Most of the time yes.

          Now, none of this means that it will be correct for Tuesday, but you asked. 😀

            1. I’d love for TK to jump in to add to the dry humor thread. I bet he’d dig deep on this one.

              European thank you.

  61. Pats 42-35. Worried about Pats secondary covering their receivers, etc. but believe/hope that Pats can outscore them. Ravens defense is not the elite defense it was in the past.

    1. That is more a reflection of the wind direction thanks to the orientation of H vs. L .. may be in line for some ocean-effect even if precip from the developing storm is far offshore.

        1. See just because the storm is a miss doesn’t mean it can’t snow as in indirect result of it. 😉 Of course you know that already. 🙂

          1. Yes, I have seen that before. Special set up though. 😀

            And even though the South shore is usually the bullseye for any ocean effect event, Boston can certainly get in on the fun. 😀

            As we get closer, we’ll have to open up a discussion about Lake err I mean ocean effect snow, including the conditions required and
            the different types/causes. 😀

            1. Even if that were to occur, I still don’t see much snow from that scenario. Also, the 18z NAM didn’t seem that close to me in my opinion. Sorry.

  63. QUESTION:

    IF a model has proven to be unreliable, WHY then does it continue to get run?
    What is the purpose? 😀

      1. Models like the JMA and NOGAPS are tools used mostly as adjunctives to the first line models. They are not first line models like the EURO and American models. If I had to put numbers to it, the EURO, NAM and GFS models provide us with approximately 90 percent of what we need to know, while the JMA and other models provide us with the remaining 10 percent of complimentary information.

  64. I am ready to say that it will be very, very cold the middle part of next week, with temps well, well below normal. Maybe Wednesday not getting to 20F. A solid 4 day stand from Monday thru Thursday of very cold weather. After that, we’ll see.

    Maybe Marshfield can get some snow on Tuesday ?

    1. Hey wait. Who was doubting we’d have a day that struggled to 20F when I put out a high in the upper teens the other day? 😉 Was that you or am I mistaken? 😛

    1. Remember in the Miami game how Belichek didnt kick the field goal because he saw in pregame how the wind coming through the open part of the stadium was causing that incredible right to left movement of the ball. As I recall, Miami did try their field goal and the ball missed badly to the left. I wonder if the open part of the stadium, where the foot walk crosses, is open looking to the west and northwest. That could be a huge factor.

      1. Yes, I do. Initially, I thought that BB was bonkers.
        Not so. Proof came when Miami tried. The place kicker
        started the ball well right and we watched in amazement as it
        kept moving left and ended up well left of the goal post. I have never seem that before.

        Now, if only Lester had a curve ball like that. 😀

        1. Indeed on Lester. Glad Farrell is the mgr. I think Lester will return to form with him around and sky is the limit for Buckholz. I like where the Sox are only because, for once, the expectations are understandably low and I think they will overacheive this season.

  67. Tom never doubted we would get cold :). Let’s see if we can get below zero at night in Boston. What do people think?

    1. Nah, doesn’t happen. Not at Logan. I suppose slight chance in
      Western and Southwester neighborhoods???? We’ll see.

    2. LOL …. I have no problem missing big on forecasts. Its been two straight years of cold is coming, cold is coming, cold is coming. And yet, over the last 2 winters of meteorological winter, comprised of 4 and 1/2 months, it has snowed a total of about 15 inches at Logan and probably 85% of the days have been above normal. So, that was my reason for doubting. Hey, my formal first name is Thomas, so, I’m especially allowed to be doubting. 🙂 🙂

      Now, if next weekend and beyond, we head back to climatalogical normal going forward, then I will feel alright in that there wont have been any long stretch, sustained very cold. But, yes, as I said above, its going to be very cold next week through at least Thursday.

      50F tomorrow ??? 🙂

    3. Yes to 0F or a little below at Logan, particularly Wed night, especially if there is some new fresh snowcover from Tuesday.

    2. I’m not even sure about the 1/25 date. The models seem to be different, at this point, in terms of timing, track, and intensity. This normal of course at this early stage. If a storm materializes, I doubt the models will agree until the last minute regardless if it cuts north or is BenchMark bomb or OTS. Models are worse than Congress when it comes to deciding.

      2. This will either be a BM storm, an OTS storm or something in between. The storm doesn’t make it too far north and west past the PV.

  71. I really hate the cold, I do not mind the snow at all esp right after it falls but the cold like below 20 kinda cold is useless to me and my family haha 🙂

  72. My friend, colleague, and former coworker, A.J. Burnett, will be doing the weekend morning show on Ch 5 in Boston for the next few weeks. Look for him there. 🙂

  73. Looking over the models showing something for next weekend, it looks like the main energy for that system doesnt arrive into the pac NW until wed. I think thats when we’ll have a much better idea what will happen. Unfortunately, theres a lot of model runs between now and then

      1. I agree. What does your gut tell you TK even though it’s impossible to predict this far out? Inside runner, BM or OTS storm?

              1. Way to far out to tell anything. The snow we got a few days ago came out of nowhere within 48 hours. We are a week away on this one. Might be warmer than you think.

  74. Per PB on WHDH:

    “Deep freeze expected next week. Long-duration stuff here, people. Got two storms on my radar: one close brush (maybe some more SE Mass. snow) and another big one (think cold, fluffy snow areawide) on Friday.”

  75. Well no one tell my daughter there might be a Storm. She had to cancel my granddaughters 4th birthday tomorrow because other daughters son is sick. She rescheduled for next weekend.

  78. Temp went from 18.7 at 7:30 to 19.4 at around 8pm and just now it went up to 19.7 so temps are rising 🙂

    1. SW wind out there now. I wonder how quickly it can erode this cold dry air. It might be important to watch for any future events. Will we be looking at a day tomorrow of colder than forecasted temps?

    1. The temps sure did climb quickly after midnight. In SE Mass, not only is there the relative mild air coming in from the west, but that strong SW wind is also delivering relative warmth off of the waters south of New England, which I believe also have water temps in the 40s.

    1. At this point, the Euro and GFS show more similarity for next weekend than I would have expected. Nothing in NE is a lock until the moment it happens.

    1. This is where the warm ocean temps could really HELP !! Could be a coastal and SE New England enhanced snowfall event. This is for late Monday, into Tuesday ??? Hmmm…. perhaps a 4 day weekend ?

      1. Most of that precip you see are indirect effects from a storm that is way out to sea creating ocean effect snow. That doesn’t happen to often and feel the precip is way overdone. Looks interesting however.

  88. Tom if it keeps trending closer watch out as it will not take much QPF to accumulate. Fluff factor would be in action.

  90. What would a day be without me commenting on the temps ? Probably a better day, right ?? 🙂 🙂 🙂

    I could see Monday in the mid-upper 20s. The arctic air doesnt truly surge in until the system passes by on Monday night/Tuesday morning.

    I think by Friday, the cold remains, but the deep freeze is gone with a return to the normal 30s for the following week of January 28 thru February 3rd.

    Hopefully we’ll be debating the cold AND the Super Bowl beginning this Monday morning. 🙂

    1. Don’t forget next year the Super Bowl next year is NYC in the new stadium. It may be a snow bowl or article bowl.

      1. Pats have to win it all this year and then make it back next year to the Super Bowl against Hadi’s Redskins with the chance to win 2 in a row. I’m sure all the Jets and Giants fans would just love that !!!

    1. I know, I’ll give it a rest for a while. Well, I’ll try. 🙂

      Tuesday, snow !!!! Tuesday, snow !!!! Tuesday, snow !!!!

  93. NWS discussion this morning is calling for a possible inverted trough Monday not and Tuesday with 1-2 inches of snow in the interior and 3-5 in the southeastern coastal plain.

      1. I was thinking just for NY’s “love” of the Pats, but then just remembered that the Redskins being there would irritate Giants fans even further. Perfect !!

  95. North I saw that as well, I think a lot depends on it being an inverted trough or does it materialize into a coastal storm. A lot of fun watching this play out over the weekend.

  97. If that second storm threat is going to happen I am hoping its late in the day Friday or Saturday since my mom and her husband have a flight to Aruba.

  98. The Alisonarod storm is still in the cards for late next week/weekend and appears slightly more likely than it did yseterday.

    1. And I just noticed that the true Alisonarod storm may occur on the exact date I predicted weeks ago if this inverted trough on Tuesday morning gets its act together.

  100. I know its not quite as warm but it feels and smells like an early to mid march morning. I have windows open and the air makes the house smell wonderful

  102. Just keep in mind anything Tuesday will have very high ratios so it doesn’t take much to get to 6 inches.

  104. Reviewing the comments from my last check-in here then on to the updated blog which has just been posted.

    O.S. if you are still there feel free to post those links on the new update!

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