Weekend Update #2 (Sunday Morning)

458 Comments

9:30AM

This is an update on the previous entry, adjustments needed for this update include an increase in the wind forecast for today and tonight, and a posting of forecast snowfall amounts for Monday night & Tuesday. Otherwise, there are no major changes, and this will all be updated again this evening with the posting of The Week Ahead.

Today / Tonight … The transition from very mild air (for January), with temperatures probably reaching 50 during the day, to arctic cold, with temperatures falling into the teens overnight. This will be announced by big winds (gusting as high as 45 to 50 MPH) shifting from WSW to WNW (not a huge shift but you’ll notice a huge difference in temperature between noon today and midnight tonight – up to a 30-degree drop and even a few more by the time the lows are reached early Monday morning. With a line of snow squalls moving into Vermont early this morning, including thunder, one would think we’d be seeing a heavy shower or thunderstorm (rain due to the mild air) ahead of this front some time today, but that activity is likely to weaken considerably and only a few showers may survive the trip across southern NH and eastern MA early or mid afternoon. There is even a more remote chance of an isolated snow shower coming along with a secondary trough line that has to push through here early this evening around the time of the kick off of the NFL AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens at Foxboro MA. Expect the temperature to be in the middle 40s during the afternoon tailgate, dropping to the middle 30s by kick off time, and the upper or even middle 20s by the end of the game. The big story will be the strong westerly winds which will gust beyond 40 MPH, playing havoc with tailgate activities (beware of flying paper and plastic cups and plates and maybe a few burger rolls!). The wind will also likely have an impact on the game itself as it swirls around the stadium.

Monday / Tuesday … The winds will have dropped off by Monday but the cold air will be in, not yet in full force (see Wednesday / Thursday), but enough that you will sure notice a big difference from what we had this weekend. Of more importance is a disturbance coming out of the Great Lakes region that is going to transfer its energy to a new low pressure area just south of New England, which will then strengthen as it tracks northeastward into the waters just east of New England. Even though this low track is close enough to throw snow into the region, in most cases it would be a light snowfall, but there are 3 things working to enhance the snowfall in some locations, especially closer to the eastern coastal areas of NH & MA and probably the southern coastal areas of MA & RI. These are 1) very cold temperatures which will lead to snow to water ratios on the order of 20 or more to 1, allowing very fluffy snow to pile up easily, 2) ocean enhancement where wind comes off the ocean water and picks up additional moisture (this would be most likely on the outer part of Cape Ann and across Cape Cod in areas exposed to a northerly wind), and 3) an inverted trough, or Norlun trough setup, in which an elongated or stretched out low pressure trough extends back from the main low pressure area, in this case into southeastern New England, and results in added convergence or instability in the atmosphere. NOTE that the forecast snowfall amounts below are trickier than usual with these factors in place, and can potentially bust quite easily, so please check back in the comments section below as the day and evening goes on for any changes before the full update later tonight. For the timing of the snow, though flakes may begin in some areas late Monday afternoon, the majority of the snow will fall late Monday night into Tuesday morning before tapering off in the afternoon and pulling away to the southeast.

Wednesday / Thursday … Still looking at a pure arctic outbreak, the coldest in 2 years. Not expecting any big record low temperatures though. A weak upper level disturbance may bring some clouds later Wednesday to early Thursday but dry weather is expected.

Friday / Saturday … Not a whole lot to add yet about the winter storm potential here. Starting to see hints that it may be a double-barrel system with a shot of snow Friday with one wave of low pressure, and another low moving up the coast or just offshore on Saturday, being a secondary hit or a close call. It’s still far away, so all I can say still is that there is the potential for another significant snowfall.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Sunshine & high clouds this morning. Variably cloudy this afternoon with a slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs around 50. Wind WSW to W 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a very slight chance of a passing snow shower early. Partly to mostly clear later. Lows 14-19. Wind W to WNW 15-30 MPH gusting over 40 MPH early, shifting to NW then slowly diminishing later.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Increasing clouds. A few light snow showers possible late. Highs 24-49. Wind light variable, mostly N to NNE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Widespread snow developing, with embedded heavier snow showers developing overnight especially coastal NH and eastern MA including Cape Cod. Lows 13-18. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with snow and snow showers in the morning, with a few areas bands of heavier snow very possible especially coastal NH and eastern MA – accumulation a general 2 to 6 inches in areas without enhancement and 6 to 12 inches in areas that see enhanced snowfall. Mostly cloudy with any snow and snow showers ending northwest to southeast in the afternoon. Highs 18-23. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH. Some blowing snow.

WEDNESDAY: AM sun / PM clouds. Low 0. High 15.

THURSDAY: AM clouds / PM sun. Low 3. High 20.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 25.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.

458 thoughts on “Weekend Update #2 (Sunday Morning)”

  1. Slightly off the record, it would not surprise me that parts of southern Maine, coastal NH, and northeastern MA go over a foot. High bust potential though. Risky forecast.

    1. How is that. I would think Boston would be right there in the high zone, and even more south like here in Pembroke, Marshfield , Hanover and plymouth.

  6. Happy for us to get back in the action. Don’t know if anybody saw this in the news last week, but there were 6-12 inches of snow in and around Jerusalem last week. Having spent many extended stretches there, I know the differences in weather a few miles can make is even more variable than here, but this is a once every 25 years occurrence…

    http://travel.cnn.com/jerusalem-snow-494176

  8. I think most eastern areas come in with close to a foot and some even more if nam holds which is a big if.

  12. Very curious how the GFS handles this bc the HPC in model discussion said to toss the nam out as it initialized poorly.

  13. For those of you who thought winter was over, you are sadly mistaken. Some places on Tuesday morning only receive a few inches while other locales just a few miles away receive well over a foot. Huge bust potential here but also potential that many locations receive far more than anticipated.

    Next weekend’s storm still appears to be on. This will be more of a widespread heavy snowfall. However, some towns pick up more on Tuesday than they will receive this weekend. Quite a unique pattern setting up. Winter is far from over.

  15. Winter is over. This will develop further off shore preventing accumulating snow. The end of the week storm will hit south of NYC. Step away from the pc or smart phones and enjoy this wonderful day.

    1. Coastal if thing’s pan out I think we could get a good hit down here. Your not seeing that. Have a good day. Hope your mom is doing better.

  18. This is a bit old, but still in interesting to say the least. From our friends at NEWW:

    New England Weather Works
    NOT A FORECAST JUST YET

    Ok in short here, this is the same system we showed the map with the Bomb Graphic on it, what we are looking at this evening is concerning to say the least. This is an extremely dynamic feature, not to toot our own horn but we never really felt this was off the table.

    What we expect is to see is this dynamic feature make it’s way to the Delmarva Peninsula, once it reaches that location it will ignite a strong coastal Gale center, this coastal Gale will begin to move slowly to the North to a position just off Nantucket Massachusetts.
    We want to look at a couple other things before hoisting an epic snow fall map titled under the B word, please stand by, Private messaging us will have to fall short this evening as the four of us are working around the clock on this to bring you an accurate forecast.

    We understand the potential magnitude of this system so please let us work this out, the page will be open all night to bring you the latest.

    Thank you

        1. When all is said and done, the Tuesday event may be significant for a very small percentage of the area, and not so much for everywhere else. The #’s I put out can bust badly one way or another.

          1. Or significant for none. 😀

            I don’t have a good vibe, but that may just be
            my pessimistic nature. 😀

            Besides, we have friends flying out of Logan at 7Am on Tuesday. As early as Friday night I alerted them to the possibility of the snow.
            I told them then that it could be significant, but that it also could be a miss or not all that much.

            So, perhaps, I am attempting to diminish this one. 😀

  21. I don’t think it’s trending either way, it’s just impossible to pin down. Its been NAM vs. GFS. OS you give up too easy on these storms 🙂

  22. From NWS at Taunton, a “Massive blend” 😀 😀 😀

    MODELS…THERE ARE THREE DIFFERENT CAMPS FOR THIS SOLUTION TO
    PLAY OUT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A INVERTED TROUGH/NORLUN
    TROUGH WILL SET UP SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
    NAM/SREF MODELS ARE MORE ROBUST AND GIVE THE REGION SIGNIFICANT
    SNOWFALL ACCUMS. THE UKMET/GFS ARE THE IN BETWEEN MODELS AS THE
    EC/CANADIAN ARE THE LESS ROBUST AND HAVE THE AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIP
    OFFSHORE. BECAUSE OF THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED WITH A
    MASSIVE BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM/EC TO BEGIN TO TREND THE
    FORECAST TO A PROPER SOLUTION. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE TROUGH AND
    HEAVIER AXIS CAN SHIFT IN ANY DIRECTION AT THE TIME.

  23. From NEWW a few minutes ago:

    New England Weather Works

    Here is the map, the areas highlighted in white could see well over 12+ inches of blowing and drifting snow and high winds, this is a high stakes forecast and much will depend on where the inverted trough focuses the moisture. The snow ratios will be high so it’s not going to take a lot to ramp up snow amounts.

    We really wish we could tell you where the trough will set up, but knowing that would mean we could pick the winning lottery number as well.

    http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/305032_516561418366673_1689688835_n.png

    Really now? Really? 😀 😀

    1. Follow UP:

      New England Weather Works
      It’s not a fact of it moving more North, it’s the inverted Trough that develops along the eastern sections, this will be a high moisture area because of the convergence taking place at the base of the trough. The ramped up snow is not because the low is closer to the coast, In terms you might understand a little better, think of this as a conveyor belt extending from the storm to the coast, as far west as that conveyor belt gets that is where the heavy snow will fall. So if that conveyor belt is east of your location you get nothing.

  24. Its just a question on how much snow we get tomorrw night and Tuesday and for those under the norlun/inverted trough you will do well with this event.

    1. I am less worried about the Pats than I am about the 49ers winner. Can’t stand their punk QB. First time in forever I saw a QB get an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty was last week when he spiked the ball on an opposing players head. No class that one…certainly not a leader.

      1. Try living next to a guy who never rakes his leaves. My whole property is covered worse than fall…leaves everywhere.

          1. Hate it…I worked hard to clean up…actually enjoyed it. Odd too as the guy is very VERY meticulous about his house. I thought for sure his leaves would be up before mine! Worse part is his leaves get in my driveway and clog my drainage grate outside the garage doors. I can’t clean them now as it’s too windy, but they will freeze on he ground tonight then it’s impossible for me to get them up.

        3. My next door neighbors do that, but most of the time the way the yards are oriented we don’t get their stuff blowing in here. And my brother (who lives in North Woburn) is not so lucky. He has a guy upwind of the most common direction who never cleans anything. He ends up with it all.

          1. You are lucky! Seems no matter where I live, I have the house where the wind blows everyone’s stuff on my yard regardless of direction. 🙁

  27. I’ve seen enough of these Norlun style setups to know not to completely discount them. This is the type of situation where, FOR EXAMPLE, Waltham could see 2 inches of snow and Gloucester could see a foot plus.

    1. We had a setup like that back in January 2011 in CT where from Danbury to Waterbury saw a foot plus in 5-6 hours which created problems for the pm commute that Friday and outside the band only an inch or two.

  28. Remember the trend. Looks like a miss, than bang. Snow for most tomorrow night, enough for the plows and schools cancellations.

    1. Daughter is hoping for school cancel tues. her son was home sick all last week and needs a couple more days and shed rather he not miss class time

  29. It could be OS I only think its a bust if its predicted. And I don’t see any bold predictions out there bc of the issues with this set up.

  30. I enjoy conversating about the weather, but I believe most of us receive an inch or less, this upcoming event will be more about what’s it gonna do than what it delivers,

    1. I have a funny feeling about this no storm, I think u havta play odds and I will receive not much here, will c

      1. I has the sense that you and I wouldn’t get most – more along the coast. However I was encouraged by TKs 6.8 Woburn.

          1. I know but I can dream. My take from the read is that it will be very difficult to mark off a large area on the map and use the typical 3-6 etc since two neighboring communities may vary greatly. All coupled with the uncertainty of the norlun trough. That’s what makes this so fascinating

  31. Charlie, there will be some snow that is strickly from the clipper before a secondary low forms south of us and before the norlun trough sets up. Even if ur area doesnt fall within any enhanced bands you will still see over an inch, probably around 3 or 4 just due to the high ratios.

  32. Maybe 1 to 2 hrs of warming left in eastern Mass ….. I see that Albany and western Mass are cooling.

    51F at Logan at 11 am ………

  33. Speaking of the current weather, this weekend has been beautiful. Spent yesterday and shortly today house hunting. I was worried about looking for houses in the middle of the winter but its been an enjoyable experience. Close to putting in an offer in North Attleboro! 🙂

      1. I just moved last April (second time I bought a house…well had a condo at one point so three I guess). Can be stressful but winter can be a great time!

  34. NWS, Upton NY discussion about weekend system:

    MODELS ARE SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR
    A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO END THE WEEK/START THE
    WEEKEND AS A RESULT. BUT BECAUSE THE ENERGY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
    IN THE BERING SEA AND NOT EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE WEST COAST
    TILL MIDWEEK THERE IS AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS
    AT THIS TIME. THIS IS BORNE OUT BY THE STILL WIDE RANGE OF MEDIUM
    RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS.

  35. Water temp. (it’s up again!)

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Jan 20 2013, 9:50 am EST
    Sun, 20 Jan 2013 09:50:00 -0500
    Temperature: 47.1 °F (8.4 °C)
    Dewpoint: 32.7 °F (0.4 °C)
    Wind: Southwest at 29.1 MPH (25.27 KT)
    Wind Chill: 38 F (3 C)
    MSL Pressure: 1002.5 mb
    Water Temperature: 44.6 °F (7.0 °C)
    Wave Height: 1.1 m (3.61 ft)
    Dominant Period: 4 sec
    Average Period: 3.7 sec
    Mean Wave Direction: Southwest (214 °)
    😀

    2. Thats crazy OS! I dont understand how a few days and nights of cold have little or no affect on the water temps but a couple above normal days have a big affect

      1. No, I think it is the annual Bean Party. You know where
        bags and bags of beans are thrown overboard in the vicinity of the buoy. Attracts fish and then when they eat the beans, well, you know what happens. The end result is it warms the surrounding waters. 😀

  36. The Boston Harbor water buoy is reporting a beautiful 44.6F. I may drive over to Rexhame and throw a few pots of boiling water in this afternoon :), in light of this type of event evolving Mon. night / Tuesday morning.

      1. For once, these above avg ocean temps could be to our advantage. I wonder if the models are programmed with the fact that the ocean temps are several degrees above normal or, if there solutions are based off of normal water temperatures.

        1. Several? Indeed. What would normal be now?
          Something 36 would be my guess.

          That would make in 10 Degrees F above Normal!!
          Incredible!

          I, too, wonder how much that is factored into the
          model prognostications? 😀

        1. Only speaking for Marshfield, I think, if a low were to track next Friday/Saturday as shown on the 12z GFS, then after some front end snow, my immediate area would be destined to go over to cold rain.

          Thus, I’m kind of hoping this early week event does as well as it possibly can.

  39. I’m color blind so it’s tough to read lol, but my 3 year old told me “our house is yellow” when I pointed where it was, merrimack valley over a foot? She then says “daddy’s eyes are broke he can’t see color?”

    1. Wow ….. from 11am to noon, places like Orange, Westfield and Albany continued to climb. Albany, had that line of clouds and showers move through during which time the temp dropped to 37F at 11am, but now at noon, by the obs, it looks like most of the sky cleared and the temp jumped back to its high so far of 43F.

      55F, 56F at Logan maybe around 2pm ? We’ll see.

  41. OS. Hmmmmm. Just like I said yesterday. The NAM is too robust and the GFS is too modest. It will be a blend of the NAM/GFS and many locations in eastern MA in varying degrees will see a significant snowfall Monday late nite/Tuesday morning period. Won’t take much snow to stack up.

    Bring on the alisonarod storms that I mentioned 3 weeks ago when most thought winter was over! 🙂

    1. You certainly may be correct.

      Something just does not feel right to me.

      I’d feel better if it looked like we would get some decent NE winds
      for enhancement. Right now, I don’t even see that.

      Let’s see what the 0Z runs have to say later. 😀

  45. I don’t agree with the AccuWeather map. I think a lot of areas in the eastern part of SNE could get a level 2 snowfall (snowfall between 5 to 10 inches)

    1. Like your thinking JJ. Maybe Elliott put that map together, he is usually conservative. Henry is getting his afternoon update ready with a foot plus on his map :)”.

  46. Tom, looks like we tied a high minimum last night with the 41 degree low at Logan, but it won’t last through the end of the day unfortunately with the artic front coming through….

  47. * Snow in London. The Dalton Minimum is increasing. Western Europe is going to snow a lot more and be a lot colder in the next several years. Wait for it…

    * In my opinion, for AccuWeather’s snow map to verify, the snow can’t last more than about 5 hours in eastern MA. I’m not in agreement with them, although I do acknowledge the possibility of this verifying if the inverted trough setup is maximized offshore.

    * Anyone notice the band of multi-level clouds moving in from the west northwest? This was that band of thundersnowsqualls in VT this morning. Futurecast was extremely accurate on the timing and orientation of this cloud deck moving into southeastern New England.

    1. Yes, I notice the clouds moving in from the west northwest. Almost looks like a summer sky w/potential thunderstorms – which there was exciting 🙂 weather in VT earlier!

  51. TK, thank you again for your detailed, excellent forecast. I am learning a lot for this site. I appreciate it.

    I will disagree with you on one thing. Although Western Europe is experiencing a rather intense cold snap right now, average winter temperatures throughout Western Europe have been climbing, especially during the past 15 years. And there really hasn’t been much snow in Western Europe in recent years. The 80s and early 90s (when I lived there) saw more snow and cold than current winters. Not a lot more, but it was generally colder and there were snow events.

    On the current cold spell across the pond, the thinking from yesterday has not changed much. Still very cold there, with some snow at times (mostly light stuff). That should continue a few more days, but should ease considerably across the British Isles by Tuesday and Wednesday, and further ease across Western Europe as the week progresses. The expectation there is for a pattern change that will entail a thaw for Western Europe (a back to normal so-to-speak) over the coming 2-5 days depending on where one is. Germany and parts of Scandinavia will be the hold-out Western European nations. But even there some thawing will begin by next weekend. Usually, once thaws happen – unlike our normal short-lived thaws (I do not at all consider this year’s `thaw’ to have been a normal thaw) – winter retreats big time. The Atlantic lows take over and the pattern change remains locked in place for weeks or perhaps even months. They use the phrase a “parade of Atlantic lows.” These lows look absolutely magnificient on satellite imagery. Not quite like hurricanes, but almost. They refer to the fall and winter lows as having a distinct “curl” where the `eye’ is, and the area that is impacted by each of these lows is astoundingly large. Also, they travel at ferocious speeds. And for those of you who fly to Europe you’ll notice that on a typical day the tail wind on your way to Europe (especially in winter) will make your flight there at least one hour and possibly as much as 90 minutes or more shorter than your return flight.

    What an unbelievably mild day so far. I know that cold is coming. I am sitting in my office and have noticed some changes in the last hour, but the fact that we got to 54 is just amazing. Also a little depressing to a winter nut like myself.

    2. I second TK’s comments. I enjoy reading so many posts on this blog and have learned so much from all of you!

    3. I agree w/North and TK. You always give such great information. Thank you! I actually am kind of enjoying this aft. weather. The sky is rather pretty in its own way and the wind is howling. Kind of exciting, in a minor way. It all of a sudden got dark – like a storm was coming. Looking forward to more snow for the winter – but I hate to admit, I love tracking thunderstorms so I am looking forward to spring and summer!

  52. Two questions: 1) For Tues, what are everyone’s thoughts for the Worcester area? 2) When the snow starts Mon night, will the snowfall rate ramp up slowly, or will it be a quick hitter?

    Out in Clinton today, high temp just about 51F, as of 1PM, has dropped down to just about 49F, with overcast.

    Thanks all!

  54. Stepping away from the blog for a couple hours to go celebrate my mom’s 81st birthday. This lady has the mind of a 40 year old, and maybe she’s slower than she used to be and has shrunk a few inches (she makes fun of herself, don’t worry), but she walks without help, and rather briskly, and on top of all that, she has been the best mother anybody could have hoped for!

    Her birthday is actually tomorrow, but the family is gathering downstairs in my parent’s place for a little party this afternoon before the football festivities begin. I’ll be back!

    1. Happy birthday to your Mom! We had my mother in law’s 80th last summer. She also is still so active, it is amazing.

      Heading to the cape in a little while for dinner with my parents and the game. Nice drive home around 10…I am sure it will be getting much colder by then!

    3. TK, enjoy celebrating this very special day with your mom and family! I’m sure your mom says the same about you – “He’s been the best son a mother could hope for!” Happy Birthday to your Mom!

  56. Alot of talk on twitter about the potential snow amount for monday and tuesday. I think alot of the mets will be holding their breath hoping this is not a bust. God I hope Joe Joyce map verifies I will be pumped!!!

    On another note if we do get 6-12 along the coast that will make temps even colder for the rest of the week correct?

  57. Here we go. NEWW at its best! 😀 😀 😀

    New England Weather Works
    ‎*** VERY LOW CONFIDENCE MAP WITH TUESDAYS STORM.***

    This is the first map for the Monday night Tuesday storm, it’s a very low confidence Map, let that be first understood, We have highlighted the area with Blizzard conditions, that means we feel confident that where these intense bands of snow set up, the conditions will be very heavy blowing snow reducing visibilities 1/4 mile or less. This is a very high bust forecast but we feel it’s time to at the very least get your attention, as we get closer to this event nowcasting will allow us to narrow down the wide area we have on the map.

    Will answer any question we can at this point but please remember we are running in a very low confident mode this afternoon.

    http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/428370_516603258362489_1055733677_n.png

      1. yeah and 8-12 is missing as well.

        Someone smoking something?? 😀 😀

        Notice is does say LOW CONFIDENCE!

        Then why bother posting it????????
        (not me, them)

        😀

  58. Just came in from a quick trip to Mission Church to pick up a Mass card.
    (no one close. A relative of a friend)

    The wind is absolutely Howling. I had to park a fair distance and walked.
    It will have a real impact on the big game today!!!!

    Pats win for sure. Reasons:

    1. Pats contain Ray Rice and the Ravens Running Game.
    2. Flacco will not be able to execute his long pass game
    3. Brady will hardly be affected at all and will bombard the Ravens with
    the short passing game complimented by Vareen and Woodhead out of
    the back field.

    GO PATS

  59. As I mentioned above, I watched Joe Joyce early this am and like TK he was talking to the “trickiness” of the situation. As I also said somewhere, it’s as though nowcasting has become more relevant over the last 6 months. Many times (not all the time) things just never quite seem to be as forecasted when it comes to track, precip am’ts or intensity. I feel the storms for this week are in that same bucket. Here it is — Sunday afternoon — and for good reasons we can’t tell if tomorrow night we’re going to get a dump of snow or see a bust.

  60. my prediction sadly i think the ravens are goin to win… sadly because of my mom and dad i will not be in my lucky seat. of course my parents decide to watch the game when they are in the afc championship and take my lucky seat. Every time that i have not sat in my lucky seat the pats have lost including the super bowl of last year and the 2007 superbowl. the regular season games i was either not at home or my dad took my seat. they are the definition of ban wagon fans.!!! if i could sit in my seat we would win. its still going to be close. I no this is superstitious. but still.

          1. I did vicki i even told them this and my mom took it serously and said were the adults we get the seats we want .. its dictator ship sadly

    2. Very Nice. Thank you for sharing.

      Someone smoking something?? 😀 😀

      Notice is does say LOW CONFIDENCE!

      Then why bother posting it????????
      (not me, them)

      😀

    3. I was reading that last night. Fantastic collection of photos. I know the storm was devastating for some people but what memories it brings back for me as a 10 year old with 3 weeks off of school and an unlimited supply of snow to use. And did we ever use it…

  63. I am thinking a 49ers Ravens Super Bowl. I hope I am wrong with the 49ers pick since being a Cowboys fan I don’t want to see the 49ers get back to the Super Bowl before us and win one.

    1. Again bite your tongue jj 🙂 how can u even be worried about the NFC, it’s all about the Red/White and Blue!! It’s one thing to think a teams gonna win like Matt but actually root, c’mon bud 🙂 Go Patriots!!!

    2. If your worried about dallas they ain’t gonna win anything for another 18 yrs with all do respect, have a great day jj 🙂

    3. i hope the ravens nor the 9ers get in. i want patriots vs falcons. though we would be in the white jerseys.

  65. That 1st Super Bowl win was a shocker against the Rams as the Pats were I believe a 14 point underdog. To me the championships your team is not suppose to win are the most special.

  66. Don’t be too confidant about pats all, Ravens are playing with emotion which can be a big factor. Brady and Belicheck need this win to prove that they can win post spygate etch… I think all pressure is on the Pats as 9 points favorite and home. I worry about Flacco going deep, but hoping the Pats pull it off.

        1. Spygate was a joke. Every team filmed at that point…it was part of the game people didn’t see. Mangini got a lot of flack from the whole NFL for ratting out. It’s like people being shocked when a politician takes a bribe…it’s part of what they do.

          1. It was all right to do up until 2007. Goddell made ruling you couldn’t and bellichick ignored it. Bottom line is you are right WW all did it but only PATS need to redeem.

            1. Haha when I went to Texas or anywhere I’m decked out in Patriots I mean from head to toe, I had people at malls yelling hey is Gronk playing or Brady is a living legend but it’s only the people that don’t know the ins and outs of football (jeaoulous) or they will believe that forever and that’s ok, haven’t ran into any of them

        2. The only time my SIL has smiled all day was when I told him your comment. If the rest of the world can’t handle talent I’m not responsible. 😉

    4. Ravens are done. Emotion doesn’t hide the fact that they lost 3 of their last 4 regular games, and even though they best the Broncos, they actually played very sloppy.

    5. Could care less about what people think about spygate, I think anyone that thinks spygate they always will, I’ve coached football granted at a different level for 23 yrs, before I continue I ask do u know football (schemes, routes, spy’s, defense?

  67. My SIL who lives and breathes football has to work inventory 6-2 tonight. At a sports buisiness. No TVs. No radios. He is in an understandably bad mood. Gotta love big buisiness. No sr managers working

  68. 18Z Nam is rolling along.

    I think the Wundermap is screwed up with their snow maps. I don’t even look
    at em anymore. Looking at surface and 850mb, nothing earth shattering for Tuesday.
    Perhaps an inch or 2, 3 tops. As far as Weekend, it has it running N&W of us,
    bringing snow to brief rain/sleet right back to snow. Long way off. 😀

  69. For fun, I went back on the BZ website and looked at videos from earlier in the week.

    On Tuesday, the high projections for this weekend were 44F and 38F.

    Two days later on Thursday, they didnt change much …… 45F and 38F.

    Looks like what goes into the books will be 49F and 54F.

    I’m pretty sure ch’s 5 and 7 were about the same, I just had an easier time locating the videos on ch 4’s website.

  70. I’m thinking six for Boston. As you head south down by me Plymouth county I am not going to be surprised seeing 12+. Start time by early evening and cranking really good predawn Tuesday. Holiday and overtime pay, nice.

        1. We have to talk about…………Look at both models towards the last week of January. Warmth returns…….well….at least thats the signal as of today.

      2. Man, you and I keep doing this, lol. I respectfully disagree. Going for a drive in the truck before it goes back to dealer in the morning.

  71. Weather model football predictions :

    NAM : 54 – 0 Pats

    EURO : 50-42 Pats

    GFS : 30-21 Kansas City Chiefs over the Carolina Panthers

      1. One man does not a football team make ;). Longshot. I’m nervous too – great teams. I don’t think there is a given. I do agree with Old Saltys logic especially the wind affecting the long shot which is a big part of the ravens game.

        Speaking of wind……where is it? It was much windier here earlier

    2. They are overrated…if Lewis wasn’t on that team and the media wasn’t obsessed with him there would be a lot less talk of any Ravens victory.

  76. You guys are way too confidant. Have some humble pie people you would earn a lot more respect that way. No wonder the rest on the nation hates the Patriots.

      2. Coastal many of us here were rooting for the red skins a couple of weeks ago cause they are Hadis team. I sorry they didnt get further. No Matter what they are all good teams when they get to this level and someone is sadly going home.

    3. Hadi have you noticed multiple people have said they are not confident. Also don’t you root for your team.

    4. Hadi, have you forgot about the Super Bowls we lost and the Red Sox 86 year drought. We are far to familiar with the ups and downs of sports. Humble Pie? Don’t you remember we lost the last two Super Bowls we were in and let’s not even begin to talk about the 2003 Sox. How’s that for humble pie!

      Oh and congrats too! Keep it up. I need to do it to.

      1. That’s the point you forget that you lost the last two Super Bowls. You guys are assuming the win and pretty easily against the Ravens.

        1. Again did you not notice many here are not assuming a thing? I’m not sure anyone is. It is confidence and not superiority. Im surprised you dont know everyone here well enough to see that

            1. You reading another blog :). Have fun. I’m going to leave this conversion because I want to look forward to the game. Hopefully we can have a fun discussion of the game as we did with the redskins.

  78. I’m just guessing here…….

    Because the arctic air doesnt fully charge in tomorrow, its almost like the low/disturbance/clipper is tracking a bit closer to the south coast because the better temp contrast is just west of New England……and in doing so, its inverted trof is also going to be situated further north.

    I am still optimistic for a few inches of snow from the disturbance itself passing nearby. I could see some snowshowers first coming up from the southwest off of Long Island Sound and Buzzards Bay and then hopefully some snow when the wind hopefully turns briefly north northeast.

  80. Agree with OS – the Mon night into Tuesday “storm” is a non-event for most of SNE. It was never really exciting me (mainly because we were never really in the game for more than an inch or two here in CT). I expect a general 1-3″ of fluffy snow across most of SNE with 2-4″ in eastern MA and along the south coast. Best chance of enhancement from the trough with 6″+ plus totals will be in coastal NH and southern ME (and perhaps far NE MA).

    Friday system still looks progressive with no blocking in place. In fact, the 12z Euro has the NAO neutral to positive Fri-Sat. That said, it still delivers a good 6-10″. Here are the 12z Euro projected snow totals through this Saturday.

    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=186575

    Note these totals include both storms and are calculated with an 8:1 ratio (in reality, we see closer to 12 or 15:1, so you can almost double them)

    1. Interesting, looks like a clipper on 1/24 (84 hrs) that has an increasing area of precip in upper Ohio Valley along a big time temperature gradient that extends eastward, just south of New England.

  82. Also, did anyone notice both the Euro and GFS have a lakes cutter and surge of warmth returning by middle of next week? Ugh!

  84. Yes Mark too soon due to the nature of the situation. We might not know what will happen until we are in it.

  85. best chance of 5 or more inches east of i95 expecially along the coast. wide spread 2-5 inches over the rest of the eastern half of mass . rodeisland and southern nh. with western half having less than 2 inches. this still some areas will see alot of snow others will not see accumulationg snow. models have moved the norlon trough further north up into nh and southern maine and i think that will continue which would make it more likly that their will just be a wide spread 2 to 4 inch amount possibilities.

  89. SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

    MAZ006-007-014>016-018-019-021>024-210515-
    /O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0001.130121T2200Z-130122T1700Z/
    WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA- EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA- NANTUCKET MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.LAWRENCE.GLOUCESTER.CAMBRIDGE.
    BOSTON.QUINCY.BROCKTON.PLYMOUTH.MATTAPOISETT.CHATHAM.
    FALMOUTH.PROVINCETOWN.VINEYARD HAVEN.NANTUCKET
    405 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

    WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

    THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

    * LOCATIONS.EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.INCLUDING CAPE COD & THE ISLANDS.

    * HAZARD TYPES.HEAVY SNOW.

    * ACCUMULATIONS.SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

    * TIMING.LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO TUES MORNING.

    * IMPACTS.POOR VISIBILITY & SLIPPERY TRAVEL ON UNTREATED SURFACES POSSIBLE FOR THE MON EVENING.& ESPECIALLY TUES MORNING.COMMUTES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE. A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD YIELD MORE SNOW. WHILE A TRACK FARTHER OFFSHORE WOULD RESULT IN LESS SNOW.ESPECIALLY INLAND.

    * WINDS.NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

    * TEMPS.IN THE LWR 20S.

      1. The telling thing is in the winds. How often does it snow 4-8 inches with a NORTHWEST wind ?

        Just saw ch. 7 has a brand new accumulation map.

    2. Here’s another pet peeve of mine.

      When they talk about heavy snow and then say 4-8 inches total,
      that’s a joke. During most of the event the snow is light to moderate at best.
      And if it is heavy it is only briefy so. Very rarely do we ever see an extended
      period of heavy snow. 😀 😀

      1. True …… I think I’m going to set my expectations at 2-4 inches, if we get more, thats gravy, if we get less, then there wont be too much disappointment.

  90. OS,

    This is a wait and see scenario. Its not the typical storm but very tricky to pinpoint anything. First models don’t pick up on these norlun troughs very often and will fluctuate like crazy. If you look at the gfs its had moisture just east of the coast for a couple of model runs now so I think that moisture hits the coastal areas and drops more than what they are predicting. However I believe the nam is overdone. I think we are going to have to start looking at different observations and less on the models. I agree with Tom if this system does travel further north like the previous storms have you can assume that the moisture maybe north of Boston. Let hoping for some snow in Boston and south shore.

  91. BB on WBZ at 5:30 pm.

    Wind gust of 55 mph in Brookline today.
    Dawn tomorrow=18 degrees.
    Tough to call tomorrow night based on where trough sets up.

    Bottom line=nobody knows about tomorrow night.

    1. Is there something your seeing that would indicate that the 18z run was NO good? NWS said the 12z NAM wasn’t any good because it initalized wrong so are all these models not spitting out the right info?

      1. I don’t think either one initialized right. The 18z especially had too many glaring differences to me. All it takes is a couple missing or bad data points and trouble results.

  97. I would just like to make a respectfull comment on some people here who think we will get nothing from this first storm, that’s just not going to happen. I’m seeing 3-6 for Boston possible higher. And down my way even more. Not sure what the thinking is but plan on many delays here. Old salty you seem to discount every storm and it happens. Again no disrespect at all, just my input. Now let’s go pats. Sf and ne would be awesome.

  98. It is entirely possible that parts of the coast/Cape Cod see more snow from the Tuesday event than they do from the end-of-week event.

    1. I suspect you agree with my post. Tuesdays storm will definitely be a producer. I could care less what the weekend does as we need to deal with the first one, this will be plowable, and that means more than three inches. Even if we got only three, let’s not be greedy as we all want snow. I really believe things are turning around for snow lovers. I’m not sure but it seems like MLK weekend likes snow. Last year for MLK night I was called in for snow. This system tomorrow night will affect us into a good portion of Tuesday, possibly till late afternoon or early evening. Tuesdays event is a done deal, its coming. Plan on a hell of a ride for am commute.

      1. Well, this time of winter is the start of the climatological snow peak.

        I agree that it will be something. As stated above, there is high bust potential, so I have opted to go with the 2-6 range and an area of 6+ over locations that see enhancement. It won’t take much QP to build up snow due to the high snow:water ratio. One thing that we won’t have is a whole lot of wind so the blowing snow factor will be less. I think the easiness of movement of the snow due to its light weight will lessen the impact on the commute. That, and the fact that having had a couple days to plan, many commuters will opt to work from home (that is, those that can do so).

        It is a pretty solid lock, despite the storm threats, the overall pattern is now entering a cold/dry phase. I see more of that in the 8-14 day period.

        1. Tk, so after these two events you are going back to the dry patern for a couple of weeks. If I may, and not holding you to it, what would you expect for snow around the Longwood area of Boston, and same question for Pembroke. Thanks.

    1. No, not at all. I don’t buy the Euro solution.

      If the late week storm is really 2 low centers and the first one is hauling right along, and the second one stays offshore, that is how it could come to be that some snow totals from that system are lower that Tuesday’s, assuming that the potential for Tuesday is maximized. All speculation really.

  100. Tk do you know when the SREF model comes out and does anyone have a link to it? I believe its a short range model?

    1. The SREF is run 4 times a day, at 03z, 09z, 15z, and 21z. It takes up to 5 hours for the output to be available (08z, 14z, 20z, and 02z). Once in a while it only takes 4 or 4 1/2 hours for the output to show up.

  102. I believe the storm over the weekend will produce a lot more snow than tomorrow for most areas. Tomorrow nights set up is just impossible to predict. It’s a wait and see.

    1. I will be on the edge of my seat down here on the coast waiting and seeing what transpires. Please don’t disappoint me again Mother Nature!

      1. Same here Sue!!! I’m looking forward to tomorrow night I’m hoping the trough sits right over the coast. GO Pats!

    2. It’s not a wait and see for storm number one. Plowable event for just about everyone, take that to the bank, done deal.

  103. 18z WRF has a 2″+ zone of QPF just to the NE of Cape Ann. This is going to be lots of fun! Too bad I’ll be watching from Lyndon State College, where it will be frigid.

    1. Thank you. It looks like quincy right on the edge of the .50inch of liquid would be a solid 6inchs. The 2″ seems to be just off shore near NH coastline I can see that coming further inland. This will be a fun storm to watch.

      1. Pats are in trouble. Ahead 13-7, Welker drops that ball that would have been a 1st down on around the Ravens 25, heading for a 2 score lead. Game has been all Baltimore since.

        I’m sorry, the Super Bowl drop and now that drop, he is not big game Wes.

  111. I know there is a lot of uncertainty over tomorrow’s snow but any idea when it might start in Woburn? I am working and hope to be home before it starts…thanks!

      1. Hi Philip… I thought from the beginning the biggest accumulations with this system would be the eastern parts of
        SNE. A lot of the snow melted here so it will be nice to get the ground whitened again.

        1. I don’t know JJ, I’m not expecting much here either. 1-2″ at best. I’m only 15 miles east of Hartford. Just not far enough east.

  126. TK, would you say at this early stage that Friday’s snow will be the typical mostly snow inland and the usual precip issues for the coast?

    1. No. At this stage I think we’ll be dealing with snow pretty much everywhere. Long way to go yet.

    1. Nope, Baltimore has been the better team, especially in the second half, and as you can see by my Facebook rant, another crucial drop by Wes Welker has dramatically changed a playoff game.

  129. Watching the Pats spit the bit at home is brutal. Hats off to the Ravens, I remember when we used to have a hard hitting defense vs. a high powered offense (first SB title).

    We had 2 turnovers vs the Rams simply by being the more physical/aggressive team.

    The Ravens are taking it to the Pats tonight.

    It would be nice to get a TD and close this to within a possession to make things interesting.

    1. The only thing I think Brady could do better was call the last timeout in the first half with 16 seconds to go. Possibly left 4 points off the board there.

    1. Agree, big storm let’s move on. One thing on the pats. I’ll still take bill,tom and Wes on the same team Anytime.

  137. Very tough game but I really had a funny feeling about this game, next yr they will win it all, will c, I’m just glad we got 3 Lombardys but ya can’t deny the success really since 96 with Bledsoe,, Go Patriots!!

    1. Well we agree. No one can take from the Pats or Brady. It was a tough game. As with every other team that went home, they all deserved to be there.

  138. Charlie it’s what you have done for me lately. It’s the NFL today which sucks.

    Doubt they win a Super Bowl next year Charlie.

  139. From New England Weather Works…

    I only hope a storm never comes up the coast as fast as Brady runs, would be an epic snowfall to say the least. Sorry pats it’s just not going to happen.

    1. I understand he is the the QB. I don’t think he can answer for welker dropping the ball or Ridley getting helmet to helmet causing a turnover. He is key but he is not the whole team. And interesting that the two best QBs in the league will not be in the SB

      1. Hadi you and I will not agree and I get you don’t like the pats so it probably doesn’t serve any purpose to discuss. Agreeing to disagree is the best solution IMHO I’m moving to weather and plan to stop batting my head against the wall.

            1. Damn good team. Vince just said it best. Look at our record every year were in it. Classy guy and he tipped his hat to the othet team. A true professional at his best.

          2. I do care John as I have lives here for 20 years but I am also objective and pay close attention to football. I am blinded for my skins just like everyone is blinded for their love to the Pats.

        3. I do like the Pats!! Where did I ever say I did not not. I have always maintained that inlove Brady and company ezcapt for BB. I am just objective unlike most bc I don’t have as much stake in the results.

  141. OK, Where is the Humble Pie being served? Need to be at the front of the line.

    Terribl1 Pats performance. Terrible!!

    Got hand it to the Ravens, they certainly outplayed the Pats.

    😀

    1. He’s still breaking records. Not bad for someone putting the time in Ugh. I need to move away. Night all

        1. No crowd involvement in the second half and special teams were absent too! If the crowd was in it more in the second half it could have helped!

          1. Exactly. Was it here or somewhere else I said the crowd needed to get engaged. Plus Brady needs receivers. Gronk our and welker not there either so to speak. Tough to throw and ball and catch it too ;).

      2. I think the Ravens flat out wanted it more and were the more aggressive/physical team. The Patriots used to make the Warner/Faulk Rams pay for every catch/run, the early Pats teams were built on a championship caliber defense. We have become the Rams or the old Colts – relying too much on the offense. The Giants/Ravens have our number on how to stop this offense. We need our defense to win a playoff game here or there ans they are just not up to the old Dynasty Pats.

  149. Leaving Falmouth after watching the game. Temp 36. Will be interesting to see how much it drops on the way home.

      1. It’s why I said I had a bad feeling about the game. I have from the getgo. Not to berate the PATS but because Baltimore is one of the few the pats do not intimidate and they wanted it. Either way the pats are my team and I support them fully win or lose. Go 49ers

        Wasn’t I going to sleep? Too wound up. I do not like night games.

  154. Tim Kelley on necn just mentioned that the range for coastal areas could be 5-15inchs of snow. From Cape Cod to Cape Ann and Maine Coast.

      1. Wow … a foot. That would be great John, I hope your right. But, I dont know. It could be that the west side of one community has several inches and the east side has half of that. I picture the radar looking like those strings of snow squalls you see in the Great Lakes lake effect snow bands rather than the whole area coverage we are more used to from mid latitude storms.

        1. I think the snow being so light and fluffy, It’s really going to stack up fast. I bet you have an extended day off. Went out this morning in the new truck driving around the old neighborhood, wow is haddads huge, looks like a big inn or something.

          1. It does, it looks great. I havent been yet, but understand they have added to the menu a bit. Glad to hear you are enjoying the new Ford F150.

            1. I am. I’m dropping it off at the dealer in the morning, that will be hard. There putting a special clearcoat on the exterior and scotch guarding the interior. Also putting in a remote starter. I had it on dealer plates because the long weekend. So I’ll pick it back up for good Tuesday night with everything completed. What a smooth ride and quiet as a mouse.

        1. Nope, but it isnt getting to the normal low of 22F either and since the high was 18F above avg, the overall anomaly for the day is going to be about +10F or a little more.

      2. There’s another boundary to pass by later.
        Besides the core of the cold doesn’t get in here until after the snow event. 🙂

  164. 0z GFS has about 0.25 QPF for tomorrow night/Tuesday in Boston. Could be good for 4 or 5″ at Logan with high snow ratios and some luck.

    John, no way Boston or anywhere in MA registers a foot.

  165. For a while there, the temps were dropping 3 to 4F per hour, but over the last couple of hours, it has been about 1F per hour. 30F at Logan at 11pm …… Depending on how fast the clouds come in tomorrow, either higher clouds from the west or lower clouds from the south-southwest, 30F or even 32F wont shock me at Logan around the noon to 2pm hour.

    1. Yup and then warmup city. Look at the high headed through the Ohio Valley and the return flow setting up through the western Great Lakes.

  167. From Matt Noyes…

    He believes that the snow will be heaviest on the maine coast. He believes the next set of model runs will show a trend towards more snow in maine.

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    Most likely outcome for Southern NewEng is Mon Night to Tuesday AM bursts of snow resulting in highly variable D-2″

  169. 0z GFS has the Friday storm taking a much southerly track with heaviest snow in NJ, LI, and MV/ACK. Delivers 0.25 – 0.50″ QPF south of the pike good for 5-8″ of fluffy snow. 2-5″ north of the Pike. Plenty cold enough for snow everywhere.

  170. I respectfully disagree. No way. Boston at the very least receives 6inches, more here and maybe more for parts of the cape.

  171. So, basically, late yesterday and today I mea culpa’d on winter coming and what we have is a chance at a snow event tomorrow night, a potential miss next weekend, two extremely cold days Wed and Thursday and then it starts to moderate late next weekend ???? I take everything back. I knew winter wasnt coming. LOL !!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Tom, I don’t think this weekend will be a miss. Euro and GFS will meet in the middle. I’m also not buying the mid week warmup and lakes cutter middle of next week. Remember the models were indicating that for this Thursday/Friday last week and that totally evaporated. Expect that storm next week to trend east, and even if there is a warmup, it will be briefer and less pronounced than what the models are showing now.

  172. It’s just not in the cards with the first storm. It will be just enough to white the ground for everyone but it is the second storm that holds more promise for widespread significant snow. I think the 0z GFS is too far south with that one and will come back north. Euro had trended in the opposite direction (further N&W) with the 12z run – will be interested to see what the 0z shows. Hopefully they meet somewhere in the middle.

  173. And the trend continues. 😀 😀 😀

    0Z GFS snow map for Tomorrow Night:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013012100&time=48&var=SNODI&hour=060

    It look so priomising at 30 HOurs;

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013012100&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=030

    But here’s why it doesn’t blow up and move closed to us:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013012100&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=030

    This is the best it does:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013012100&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=033

    Still looks like a Bust to me. Winter Storm Watch, Huh, I don’t think so. 😀 😀 😀

    We’ll see if there are any surprises. 😀

      1. OS,

        The gfs and canadian have issues with the norlun trough on the first storm so I’m not relying on them at all. For the 2nd storm I think the gfs is doing its usual thing flipping back and fourth.

        1. Perhaps.

          NAM seems to have a better handle on Norlun Trough, and even that model has backed off considerably on snow amounts. 😀 and backing off more with each successive run. So what is one to think?

          I sure don’t like these trends. I smell bust. 😀

  174. MJO going into phase 8, no thaw anytime soon.
    I really hope the weekend storm tracks as north as possible to allow some snow to reach Lyndon.

  176. Well, sure enough the GFS is trending south and east with the midweek storm next week (around 1/30). Temps moderate but it has backed off on the warm surge. That storm could be the one to watch. Southern stream system moving northeast with lots of moisture.

    1. Midweek storm around 1/30? Last I heard, we were looking at a monday/tuesday storm and then a weekend storm for the 1/26 – 1/27 timeframe.

      1. True, but now there is an additional system on the charts foraround the 30th. So far, long range charts has us in the Rain camp, but it is soooo far out there, we’re watching it for trends.

        1. Thanks OS. This is the first I have heard of it. I’ve been busy re-doing my kitchen. Painting walls, cabinets, ceiling, installing new floor, glass tile backslash and changing out the faucet. LOTS to do! 🙂

  178. Are we really that confident?

    1) How well do models handle Norlun troughs even in the short range? Not well.

    2) The GFS, going south? 5 days in advance? No big surprise there…

    Computer models: Guidance, not Gospel. 🙂

    1. 😀 😀

      Tk, sure. I understand what you are saying.

      Still not thinking much for tomorrow/Tuesday. 😀
      I figure that whatever trough, if one develops, will be N & E of
      our area. 😀

      Will be fun seeing exactly what happens.

    2. Question:

      If computer models don’t handle Norlun Troughs well, and I don’t doubt that for a second, then I am curious to know what triggers that idea for the Mets?
      Is it a hint of it with the isobar configuration on the model runs? What exactly is it? Curious.

      Many thanks

      😀

      1. They pick out the general idea for one, like the elongated shape. It’s when you get down to the details of just where, that they have trouble.

  179. Adding it all up:

    I don’t see much for tomorrow/Tuesday. Something like and inch or 2, 3 tops. Wonder WHEN NWS will take down the WSW????? 😀 😀 😀

    For next weekend. I still think that one looks promising. Still have to watch closely.

    😀

  180. 0Z Euro for 24 hours, 7PM Monday.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013012100&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=024

    Please note that the New system development is just off the Delmarva. 😀
    This would be farther South and West than the other models, allowing for more
    development before getting up here. BUT at 48 hours, it’s long gone. so whatever
    happens, will not last long.

    Now, if only the Wundermap would cooperate so I can see what happens between
    hour 24 and 48. 24 hour increments suck.

    This run certainly has my interest. Perhaps this first big surprise? Or NOT?
    We’ll see.

      1. Nah, I waited. Don’t know why. NOT Impressive at all.
        System rockets out of here WELL South of area. Hint of Norlun
        Trough extendsing N&W from system, but weak and short-lived. IF trough is stronger, more snow, but time is a big
        limiting factor even if it sets up just right.

        Sure not looking like much for tomorrow night/Tuesday.

        Did Matt Noyes have D-2 Inches? If so, that might
        be the magic number with perhaps slightly more near the coast.

        😀 🙂 😀

        1. I was just about to say that the Euro pops the low off the Delmarva in the exact same position that the GFS did and we know what happened with the GFS. They are pretty much in agreement. I still think a general 1-2″ with 2-4″ attainable in eastern sections. Maybe a bit more on the Cape.

  181. Why does the NWS bother giving an update at all when they change NOTHING.

    Here is latest:

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    1250 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

    Guess what, it is exactly the same as what they issued 3 hours ago. Why can’t an
    update really be an update. Makes me crazy! 😀 😀 😀

  182. I second OS questions about the difficulty in predicting these troughs. I remember the Norlun trough event that came through CT in early January 2011. Two days prior to that event, models were zeroing in on a solution the put the axis of heaviest snow across SW CT and then pivoted the snow band northeastward across the rest of the CT and into MA as it weakened. The huge 12-15″ snow totals that occurred in some areas near Waterbury and Danbury in 6 hours were more than expected but the models did zero in on the axis of heaviest snow and the movement of the band fairly well. They have been doing that here and the consensus is coastal ME stands the best chance to be influenced by this, if at all. There is bust potential up there but in SNE it seems very unlikely at this point that we see any significant snow from the trough.

  183. Barry Burbank at 5 am virtually saying nothing about amounts. He put up a snow map but said he couldn’t predict much — had 6+ for coastal areas but also said it could be a complete bust. Talked to the trough and kept saying it’s a tricky forecast.

  185. North shore and south shore have best potential for big snow. Boston is stuck in the middle. NWS has a good write up this morning. Pretty much only high res models can handle a forecast like this and that’s still dicey.

  188. Wednesday and Thursday’s arctic cold has arrived in Minnesota.

    International Falls, MN : -22F with a 10 knot breeze !

    Minneapolis, MN : -8F with a wind at 15 knots, gusting to 22.

    Nice ob this morning from Mt. Washington :

    -17F, wind west at 74 knots, wind chill : – 60F.

  189. I think north shore up to SNH end up with most show and more down towards cape. Boston ends up with very little.

  190. It’s nice to see all of us 15+ year meteorologists are in agreement on the difficulty the computers have with troughs of this type. 🙂

  193. HPC still has at least .50 QPF even into Boston with ratios of 20:1 still a good 10 inches just not sure how we get there in the city. Easily can see north shore and south shore get a foot+ under the right band.

    Btw I love Matt Noyes but I am disappointed in how he has been forecasting as of late.

  194. Curious to see what the intial surge of snow is as the storm develops that could be where some areas pick up most of their snow if they are not near the inverted trough.

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