The Week Ahead

382 Comments

7:31AM

This is the forecast portion only! Discussion will be posted this afternoon.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY – MLK JR DAY: Increasing clouds. A few light snow showers possible late. Highs 24-49. Wind light variable, mostly N to NNE under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Widespread snow developing, with embedded heavier snow showers developing overnight especially coastal NH and eastern MA including Cape Cod. Lows 13-18. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with snow and snow showers in the morning, with a few areas bands of heavier snow very possible especially coastal NH and eastern MA – accumulation a general 2 to 6 inches in areas without enhancement and 6 or more inches in areas that see enhanced snowfall. Mostly cloudy with any snow and snow showers ending northwest to southeast in the afternoon. Highs 18-23. Wind N to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH. Some blowing snow.

WEDNESDAY: AM sun / PM clouds. Low 0. High 15.

THURSDAY: AM clouds / PM sun. Low 3. High 20.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 25.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 27.

382 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. Hey North, the house we liked in NA was near Bob’s Market on the corner of Arnold and Sumner. It was beautiful inside, just the property was a little funky and not too crazy about the neighborhood. Saw another house in Easton that we equally liked, so just have to decide between the 2. Im leaning toward NA though 🙂

      1. Nice. That is a good location. The pond is there but not frozen yet for skating. Easy access to downtown and RT 1 too. Taxes have gone up a little bit this year. I think they are up to 12.83 or so per 1000. We love it here because we are central to so many things, but Easton is really nice too. i lived in Bridgewater when we first got married and liked that area as well. Good luck and let me know what happens.

        2. North I drive by u prolly once twice maybe three times a day, I have a brother off cypress and a brother near the school I went to in early 80’s amvet

  5. Thanks TK – just finished reading last night’s discussion. This is fun to follow —- as I type that I realize lately they all have been.

  6. Hadi,
    Even in places where they are not influenced greatly by the trough, those towns will still approach 3-6 inches of snow. Much more in a few locations to the south and many towns just to the north. But, I’ll take a few inches any day!

    Friday looks to be the true Alisonarod storm. A BM storm and certainly cold enough for all snow. Just wish it wasn’t so progressive. But still a widespread 6-12 inches not out of the question:)

    1. Alisonarod – I see you mentioned Friday – is that Friday night? I was thinking the thoughts were for Saturday. Daughter has to decide what to do about her 4 yr olds bday party on Saturday and will cancel if there is a question as several older folks will have a lengthy drive. Thank you!

      1. Vicki,
        They system seems to be progressive. It’s too early to pinpoint timing exactly, however, I still feel it will be a Friday day/night event and ending very early Saturday morning. I actually think Saturday turns out to be a pretty nice day:)

        1. Thank you – and ugh for a second commuter nightmare in the same week. She will have to keep an eye because it involves canceling cake, etc.

  8. According to BB this morning Friday’s storm looks to be a grazing. He didn’t give any official amounts, but just at the end of forecast he alluded to a 1-4 inch storm. It certainly was not an offical forecast.

  9. If the Weather Channel can name storms, I am going to coin my own meterogical convention that is more critical to the public.

    Tonight’s storm will drop snow in MetroWest that is SBF 0. SBF = snowman building factor and the scale runs 0 to 100 determined by the % likelihood you can build a snowman considering the depth of snow and how close to the melting point the snow is during the storm. For those into conflict vs peaceful endeavors, it may also double up as snowball building factor (as a snowman is effectively 3 larger snowballs combined).

  10. Alright so looking over the models this morning it looks like Mass will get some accumulating snow with more enhancement along the coast. The NAM is a little juicer than ooz runs and the gfs has been consistently placing the heaviest precip just off the coast. This will be fun to see how the radar looks later tonight. Anyone see an updated SREF or WRF? I believe those are the short term models.

  11. NAM is running so let’s see if it shows anything more important.

    BB said grazing? EURO shows a benchmark storm, he can’t be basing it on the GFS.

    BTW I posted this earlier I am disappointed in Matt Noyes forecasting as of late. Not sure what he has been seeing, but he has been off his game as of late.

    1. Hadi, yes BB alluded to a smaller 1-4 inch storm Friday. He did not use the term grazing but he mentioned it going south of the area.

  16. Does anybody ever wonder if we drive ourselves crazy with just “too much information?” It seems folks agonize over computer models and other guidence 5-10 days out only to, in the end, have the weather be what it will be anyway. I find the way weather is discussed and reported on both on blogs and in the mainstream media more interesting than the weather itself. Every winter there seems to be accusations of “hyping” when it comes to winter weather . In the age of social media, blogs & 24/7 news coverage of all events in micro detail I would seem that everything has to be “hyped.” With so many media sources competing for the same people’s attention only content that is more extreme than what preceded it gets noticed. Look at the flu stories a week ago. It wasn’t enough that there’s a “flu outbreak” it has to be about “how many deaths the “outbreak” is responsible for. The weather coverage is no different. In many ways it probably holds a more widespread interest since it effects
    Us all? In the end the “hype” exists to the extent its hype because we all pay attention to it. Just a few thoughts . I read this blog regularly – usually don’t have time to
    Add much but love the discussions 🙂

    1. You make many good points. People want to see extremes and if it is not being hyped it is not being watched by the masses. I use this blog for 90% of my weather updates. It is much more up to date then anything you watch on television.

    2. M.L. great comments. I’m not sure people want to see hype as much as those who manage the news think they want to. Here I think it is excitement more than hype and that’s why, as haterain said, it’s the first place I turn when I want to know what is happening. Plus I love the discussion and ins and outs of how it all comes together.

  17. Oh Boy…Looks like the NAM at 24hrs has precip all around Boston north and south but only about .25 so far in town

    1. TJ those are not bad numbers, .25 could translate to about 5 inches of snow with ratio’s of 20 to 1…

      1. This is true I kind of jump the gun. Waiting for Nam to go out a little further before posting any numbers again.

      1. I think the NAM is picking up on the fact the main clipper system will be a bit stronger as it slides to our south and i think this first surge of snow will surprise us as this will be more widespread.

  21. Remember…The NAM shows a widespread 3-6 inches of snow. What it isn’t picking up due to it’s lack of very high resolution is the dynamic mesoscale banding that will occur due to the inverted trough. It’s very difficult to forecast where the influences from the trough will set up which makes this forecast so difficult. Just know that 3-6 inches is a good bet widespread east of 495 with some locations ‘possibly’ picking up more more than that. It’s to the north and the south of Boston that the models seem to be hinting at but the lack of high resolution models for this feature just can’t provide the information that we’re looking for. It’s a nowcasting situation regarding such mesoscale features.

  24. Let’s watch and see where the coastal actually develops, key to how much front end snow happens. We should keep in mind most systems have been north and west where they were modeled.

  28. here’s a question for the group….

    does anyone know at what MB height is used to figure out snow ratios? Is it right at the surface?

    1. Im not 100% sure but I think it was Scott a while back who posted a link to an awesome site that dealt with ratios and %chance of certain ratios when u input certain criteria. I have the link saved at home but not at work 🙁

      1. Thanks A.M.

        I have a chart too but I always wondered if the temp used for calc’s was at the surface, 925 mb, 850 mb etc…

        Maybe TK can let us know at some point. Maybe I’ll google it too.

      2. I believe the entire column must be taken into account. When the column is cold throughout, the snow is very dry (less dense). Dry snow occurs when the temperatures throughout the column are well below freezing and the surface temperature is below freezing. This is why the snow-water equivalent will have ratios that could exceed 20:1. It won’t take much prep it at all to produce significant snow. This is why I’m forecasting 3-6 inches widespread with a few pockets well exceeding 6 inches in areas where mesoscale banding occurs that low/high resolution models are not picking up.

      1. That makes the most sense Hadi especially when sun angle and B.L. temps come into play as winter gets longer in the tooth.

  29. Going to be a fun system to track. I wish I where most of you live in SNE since you will get the most out of this. I am going to be lucky to get an inch. I am hoping Friday will be a lot more here.

  30. Not sure retrac,

    BTW RAP model does show the most snow from Boston south, based on that run some place should get close to 10 inches if not more, not a forecast by me but just verbatim

  32. Todd tweet

    @ToddWBZ: The entire coast needs to be on guard for 8+” because in the end the heavy zone could set up anywhere…these events can be explosive!

  33. What does this mean?

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan

    Explosive 🙂 @ToddWBZ off the charts vert velocity (UP) lifted dex 5, saturated, convergent wind, 5C H2O / -20C 4000′ pressure near 1000 mb

        1. Lots of lift, moist wind blowing across 5 degrees celcius (relatively warm ocean temp) with air temps at 4000 feet above the surface at -20 celcius spells potential explosive snow somewhere along eastern MA!

          1. Thanks for linguistics work A-Rod. I was getting there but backed off when I got an ice cream headache.

            Looking forward to seeing where the curl develops on the radar.

  35. Am I reading the ratios correctly? Even with a lot of snow, we still get very little water added into the ground to help with our deficit?

    1. Yes Vicki. If we were to receive 10 inches of snow, the water equivalent would 1/4 of an inch with a ratio of 20:1. There are two reasons for this. One, the snow is obviously less dense due to less water content in the snow (dry snow). And two, because when snow is less dense, there are small air pockets between each snow crystal thereby deceivingly increasing the snow depth. If air temps were around 32 degrees with a warmer column, that same 1/4 inch of water equivalent would make it difficult to produce 2-3 inches of snow.

          1. Haha – I got the 1/2 but appreciate the explanation and darn. I sure would like to see 10 inches of snow increase the water levels along with the fun!

        1. And that does not take into account the mesoscale banding that even the high resolution models won’t pick up. Where banding takes place, those totals could double at least!

  41. BB updated the BZ blog and nothing new for today from him.

    I am surprised that is down playing the Friday storm this early, very surprised by his thoughts on that storm.

  43. OK, here is something I simply cannot fathom.
    I read the Winter Weather Advisory from the NWS:

    * WINDS…WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

    * TEMPERATURES…IN THE LOWER 20S.

    * VISIBILITIES…ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

    Then how the Bleep do we get Ocean enhancement with a WEST WIND???
    Can someone answer that?

    How do we get a West wind out of this?

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_018_10m_wnd_precip.gif

    At the tail end?

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_024_10m_wnd_precip.gif

    Very confusing, indeed.

    1. That’s a big boo on the part of the NWS. You typically get westerlies from troughs. However with a low pressure system to our south and an inverted trough (easterlies) setting up, winds will be blowing from the ocean. It’s this northeasterly wind from both the primary low and the inverted trough that will be enhancing our snowfall along the coast.

  49. I know This is from NEWW, but this actually looks somewhat reasonable.
    Thoughts? This was posted about 15 minutes ago, so it is fresh.

    New England Weather Works

    Here is what we currently expect, the latest RAP is showing pressure falls along the NJ coast, this is indicative of a surface area of low pressure is about to get underway, we expect this low to head Just off Nantucket, as the low deepens it should throw an area of snow into CT and RI, after the low reaches Nantucket a significant area of heavy snow will set up, looks to us this is going to be Eastern Massachusetts up the NH and Maine coast, conditions are going to deteriorate quickly and travel will not be recommended.

    Should see the winter storm watches be changed to winter storm warnings soon.

    http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/46351_517225921633556_350787353_n.png

    http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/312307_517215528301262_354629736_n.png

  50. I wonder if there’s thundersnow potential tonight along the coast ?

    I am not looking forward to Wed or Thurs. Its in the mid 20s out and after the weekend, it already feels pretty cold !

      1. Ah, I’m over it already. Too much going on in the weather department. I thought the photo and captions were hilarious.
        😀

  52. From the NWS this morning

    IN THIS CASE…THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE PROBABLY UNDER DOING THE QPF IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A RESULT OF THEIR LOWER RESOLUTIONS.
    MEANWHILE…SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING POTENTIAL
    FOR LOCALIZED BANDING. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THEIR UNABLE TO LOCATE
    WITH ENOUGH ACCURACY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL SETUP.

  53. I’m not as confident as the NEWW that the surface low will be traveling that close to southern new england. Still looks as if its main effects with remain over the open waters. It’s the inverted trough that does most of the damage. If that surface low indeed is creeping closer to us, watch out! Double whammy!

    1. Radar Loop:

      http://www.intellicast.com/national/radar/current.aspx?region=hfd&animate=true

      Those are light echos, mostly virga.

      Here is the Nexrad Radar: This echo is probably real.

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    1. I remember the storm in February 2003 prior to The Presidents Day Storm where it was a similar forecast for snowfall but
      with those high ratios a lot of areas saw double digit snowfall totals.

  56. ok now i will not go crazy. yesterday did not go well.
    my whole week has not gone well. what ever it does it better snow to cheer me up and give me an extra day of winter break
    pats lost, because of 4 to 5 controversial calls including the ridly fumble when he was knocked out.. he was down on the ground when the ball went out. and there were also alot of others. but our offense did alot of uncharacteristic mistakes as well.

    but back to weather.
    4-8 inches around and east of i95 up into southern coastal maine
    2-4 inches for the rest of eastern massachusetts and central mass with some areas inside of 495 seeing up to 5 inches.
    0-2 inches of snow in northwestern sections of mass up into vt to central nh up through eastern half of maine.

    2. Nah. Too low. That would mean only 0.1-0.2 inches of melted precip would fall. Area wide will see an easy 0.2-o.4 of melted precip. Hence my thinking of at least 3-6 with potential for much more in areas under banding.

      1. Not buying the Canadian. It’s the NAM/GFS blend that I’m following. But again, none of the models will be able to pick up the scaling features.

      1. With a very cold column and surface temps in the 20’s, the ratios should be closer to 20:1 or slightly above that for the duration; hence, snow will pile up quickly.

    1. I’d be concerned if the latest NAM/GFS looked liked like that. Again, the models want to take the surface low too far out to sea to really hit us with a lot of snow. However, they are not picking up on scaled features that will occur in some places due to the inverted trough.

    1. Can you blame him Hadi…

      http://www.google.com/imgres?hl=en&client=firefox-a&hs=tyg&sa=X&tbo=d&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&channel=fflb&biw=1280&bih=920&tbm=isch&tbnid=R1XPDTIXgzc4eM:&imgrefurl=http://mashable.com/2012/10/02/peanuts-anniversary/&docid=O6zxUAxE-dQ-bM&imgurl=http://rack.1.mshcdn.com/media/ZgkyMDEyLzEyLzA0LzVhL2l0c3lvdXI2Mm5kLjVQOS5qcGcKcAl0aHVtYgk5NTB4NTM0IwplCWpwZw/c0d3245d/f22/it-s-your-62nd-anniversary-charlie-brown-498032b638.jpg&w=950&h=534&ei=d3f9UMPgNc-O0QH9n4CACw&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=415&sig=111435057427522145096&page=1&tbnh=139&tbnw=248&start=0&ndsp=33&ved=1t:429,r:8,s:0,i:174&tx=139&ty=54

  74. Nice week of weather shaping up. Ran this morning at 6am. Wonderful. Can’t beat it. Look forward to running Wednesday and Thursday morning. All we need is some snow.

    MattSouza, your prediction was accurate on the Ravens. I also thought he Ravens would win, but that it would be a very close game. I really wasn’t close at all. Big turning point was Welker’s dropped pass. Everything was downhill after that. I agree that a few calls were controversial, including the Ridley fumble (it is Ridley’s one drawback, and something Green-Ellis did not have). But, the calls were not responsible for the loss, the Patriots were. Brady was inaccurate on anything over 20 yards. Coaching staff did a poor job in time management and play-calling (why did they abandon the no-huddle offense?). I cannot stand the Ravens. Don’t like Lewis, Suggs, Flacco. Rice, Boldin, and Pitta are stand-out players and classier than the rest. Pollard is basically a criminal, a little like Rodney Harrison, Jack Tatum. In hockey, Matt Cooke comes to mind. Legal hits mostly, yes, but the intent is to hurt, maim, or worse. Disgusting in my view. It’s why I can’t really stomach football. I watch, cringe, endure endless breaks and commercials, and afterwards sit and wonder why the heck did I watch. I like the sport, and at the same time hate it.

    1. WSW should be expanded to include other counties to the west and southwest of boston including norfolk county. A bit suprised those locations aren’t already in a watch vs an advisory.

    2. And even these high res models can’t pick up the meso banding that could occur tomorrow morning. Higher than expected snow totals will occur for some.

    3. Bristol and Norfolk counties currently still sitting with WWA’s. Nada to the west into Worcester which i think gets maybe 2-3 inches which would warrant a WWA for those counties as well

      1. Big mistake not to have norfolk and middlesex in a WSW. Not to mention, with the blustery winds, snow will drift and further reduce visibilibies.

  76. What time is this thing starting. I already got called in for 6pm tonight. Looks like my amounts were spot on. Big hit for Plymouth county.

    1. My question also John – but more for this area – friend has to drive Wellesley to Worcester during commute and I’m wondering if that area will be ok. Also, did someone say this ends around 10 am?

      1. First flakes to occur during the early evening hours becomes steadier and heavier late at night and especially during the pre-dawn hours of tomorrow morning where the inverted trough sets up.

  77. It will take a few days as we live and die with the Patriots, some snow sure will help but this loss isn’t as bad as 2006 AFC championship loss to colts but we still take it tough, today i decked out for 1 last time today with Patriots, (shoes,socks,hat,shirt,jersey,,anyways have a good day 🙂 Go Patriots!! And yes Hadi remember me saying this Patriots will win superbowl next year, rg three will have somewhat of a sophomore slump like most good rookies, do u know why most rookies have a sophomore slump?

    2. As much as I love Brady, it’s looking less and less likely that he will win the big one again as his window continues to narrow. He is 8-8 in his last 16 playoff appearances and hasn’t won the superbowl in almost 9 years! He’s not getting any younger. It’s unfortunate but enjoy it while it lasts cuz once he’s gone, he’s gone.

      1. I could care less what his record is for half his career, he’s 17-7 all time and we didn’t have bruschi,Harrison,Dillion,Brown and the list can go on and on but anyways I blame last nights lost mostly on defense anyways ugh

  79. Only complaint about the weather is the rather short-lived nature of the cold and snow. I see the SE ridge reappearing, possibly by next week. Of course that is a week away.

  80. Fluffy snow is a blessing and a curse. Sure, it’s light, easy to move…and since it will be so cold won’t continually melt and refreeze on the roof. Hard part is snow blowing…that stuff usually comes right back in your face. Might be restricted to the shovel on this one.

      1. I didn’t realize that. With the really cold weather coming in for the week, this snow isn’t going anywhere.

  81. 12zNam has .422 qpf for Wrocester, .494 for Chatham and .298 for Boston.

    Bizarre difference between worcester and boston. Uplift in the hills maybe? I don’t know. Maybe I need to wipe my eyes and look again.

    1. Billerica is the 2 largest town in massachusetts. 11 largest non city population. the town ranges from an elevation of 97 feet by nuttings lake to 165 up at the church by the center.
      just that amount of feet can effect the amount and type of precipitation (somewhat)
      seen it happen several times.
      center is snow while other places are rain
      center is rain while other places are snow. it happens both ways.depending on wind

      1. That’s cool Matt.

        Similar out here. I’ve seen as much as a five degree difference between where I work at about elevation 550′ to home at 900′. It’s not unusual to see 10-20% difference in snowfall between where I work and home only about 5 miles away.

        1. Thanks for the post. Corresponds with my widespread 3-6 inch prediction. Again, some places get much, much more! I think the NAM/GFS models are the ones to follow for this event.

  83. If it’s one thing I’ve learned it’s that the models are all flawed…some worse than others…some almost nail it, some are out on another planet. So I am not surprised if each runs says something different. Someone on this thread delved into this “too much information” aspect of it.

    1. And in this case with the fine mesoscale banding features that could be setting up…not enough information from the models.

        1. I think that Norlun trough nails the northshore and misses the rest of the region unfortunately. The Northshore could see double digit snowfall totals. Southeast mass including CC could approach 6-10 inches as they are closest to the weak low and will have ocean enhancement. With the exception of the coastline who will also see more snow, the rest of the area should see more modest amounts.

  85. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    RT @weathernut27: The beginning of the inverted trough. 850mb heights starting to buldge inwards towards Canada now pic.twitter.com/5zBwcTEM

  86. Interesting, they changed the language for the WWA for Bristol Cty. Before it said 2-4″ with isolated 3-6″ amounts, now it just says 2-4

  88. At what point will they be able to forecast the location of the axis of heaviest snow with more confidence? Or will this truly be a case of looking out the window and realizing where it is

    1. North shore due to close proximity to the norlun trough and SS, cape and islands due to close proximity to storm. These are the two areas with the heaviest axit. Rest of area sees 3-6.

  90. Latest update from the NWS in Taunton

    A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS
    A NORLUN TROUGH SETS UP. THESE TROUGHS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR SIGNIFICANT
    BUSTS EVEN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THEY OFTEN
    RESULT IN VERY NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT ARE TOO MESOSCALE
    IN NATURE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE. THEN THE REST OF THE REGION IS
    JUST LEFT WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL.

    IN THIS CASE…THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE PROBABLY UNDER DOING THE QPF IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A RESULT OF THEIR LOWER RESOLUTIONS.
    MEANWHILE…SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING POTENTIAL
    FOR LOCALIZED BANDING. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THEIR UNABLE TO LOCATE
    WITH ENOUGH ACCURACY WHERE THESE BANDS WILL SETUP.

    AFTER LOOKING AT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THEY SEEM TO PIN
    TWO AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ONE AREA
    SEEMS TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
    ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A SECOND AREA THAT
    MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MA. NOW SOME
    MODELS HAVE THAT AREA REMAINING TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST OVER THE
    OCEAN…ITS JUST IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY AT THIS POINT BECAUSE ITS A
    MESOSCALE SITUATION. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST NAM MODEL RUNS SHOW VERY
    INTENSE SNOWGROWTH OF 40 TO 50 MICROBARS PER SECOND IN THESE
    BANDS…SO ITS CRUCIAL WHERE EXACTLY THEY SETUP.

    WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR NORTHEAST MA AND
    PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THESE GENERAL
    AREAS SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING A SWATH OF 4 TO 8
    INCHES OF SNOW. AGAIN THOUGH…IF THE BANDS SET UP JUST OFFSHORE OR
    TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY BE A FEW
    INCHES. THEREFORE…CONFIDENCE WAS CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
    UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE BOSTON TO
    PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR…WE ENDED UP GOING WITH A WINTER WEATHER
    ADVISORY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE IN
    BETWEEN THE TWO HEAVIER BANDS.

    AS FOR THE REST OF THE REGION…WERE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 3
    INCHES OF SNOW SO NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. ITS POSSIBLE LATER
    SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY…BUT
    THERE IS TIME TO DO THAT.

      2. I just noticed when they pointed out “IN THIS CASE…THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE PROBABLY UNDER DOING THE QPF IN
        ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A RESULT OF THEIR LOWER RESOLUTIONS.”
        Kind of makes me want to throw out the GFS’s QPF, possibly even the NAM’s QPF.

      1. OK, so that represents moisture in the atmosphere that is not reaching the ground? The sky in Norwood is screaming snow.

    1. That caveat is the fact that they know some places are going to get a lot more but because of the huge bust potential, they will just keep it at that. The METS or the models can accurately depict where these heavy snow bands will develop. It’s suspected that heavy snow bands will set up north of Boston while moderate snow bands set up over the SS and the cape, closer to the storm. Everyone else receives light snow in the order of 2-4 (in my opinion, 3-6). The METS are going to be very surprised with someone of the very high snow totals that some locations will experience.

  104. Update from NWS

    A WIDE SWATH OF SNOW IS DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING ACROSS NY/PA
    SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LVL WARM
    AND MOIST ISENTROPIC AND ENHANCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHRTWV
    DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC FLOW. ANTICIPATING THICKENING
    AND LOWERING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTN PD WITH INCREASING AREAL EXTENT
    OF SNOW WEST TO EAST. ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN
    THE DAY. SFC LOW PRES SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG S OF NEW
    ENGLAND BY DUSK.

  106. The ceiling is beginning to lower and thicken. Precip at first will arrive in the form of virga which will act to prepare the column for our snowstorm.

        1. So Bristol county suddenly is in a Winter Storm Watch??? Earlier, they were only in a WWA. Let me check on this.

            1. Still though, they are in the far northwest corner of Plymouth Cty so I dont think they will see max amounts. I agree, snow emergencies just arent what they used to be…

  109. Snow appears to be reaching the surface in NYC and far southwest CT. Nothing appears too organized as of yet.

  110. With forecasters forecasting 1 to 3 inches in Westborough, for some reason I have a hunch that we’re going to get around 5 inches. What would the timing be though on the storm?

  111. Thanks WBZ! My town went from 3-6 to 1-3″…I”ll take that. 🙂 There map is waaaay east now. Nothing more than 1-3″ west of Boston.

  112. The initial thumping of snow will be the most people get unless they get under one of the bands, so it that over performs then we can achieve the wide range of 3-6 inches .

  116. I think to sorta ease the a patriot loss I’ll take an evening ride in my 4 by 4 Tacoma later this evening when it’s snowing, love driving in snow covered back roads ,, Go Patriots!!

  118. From my Lyndon State days ……. I remember we were all amazed by an event in March of 91 or 92. It was along the Maine Coastline. I want to say in the Kennebunk area and it covered a very small area, where a small swirl formed over the area and absolutely dumped a very tiny area with amazing snow totals, in excess of 12 inches.

    I was reminded of this event when I saw Barry Burbank’s noon broadcast on video. He showed the projected radar of the next 24 hrs and around 7am tomorrow morning, a swirl in the precip just off the coast was evident.

    I really have no idea what to expect. Guess I’ll just see what transpires and report what I’m seeing down here.

      1. I’m not sure. I’m going to try to see if I can find an article or better yet, a study of this event online. If I can find it, I’ll post it.

  119. Snow is beginning to expand in coverage to our southwest. However, if I didn’t know better, I would think the storm would be over by midnight as there isn’t much behind this area. A weak surface low looks to develop to our south enhancing the precip over night but doesn’t get its act together once again until it’s too far east. We’re really counting on this so-called inverted trough to bring any meaningful snow. Without it, it’s a bust region wide.

  120. I stated last night and I’ll say it again, I think many are setting themselves up for a big disappointment with this storm. Most of SNE sees 1-3″ with portions of the MA coast at 3-6″. No one sees double digits and I think any areas at 6″+ will be very localized.
    Snow ratios are not going to be as high as some have been saying. 20:1 will not be realized, 15:1 at best.

    I hope I am wrong for many of you in eastern MA but just don’t think a big snow is in the cards this time around.

    That being said, even 4 or 5″ of snow would be the biggest snowstorm in 2 years for some (i.e. Tom and Coastal!)

    1. Mark,

      You may be right about snow amounts. But your snow-water equivalent ratio is off the mark. With most of the troposphere below zero and a surface temps in the 20’s overnight, ratios will easily exceed 15:1 if not 20:1. The snow will be more dry and less dense than you think.

    3. Yes. Since the start of the 2011 school year, we have not come close to even considering a snow cancellation. We have had 3 days and 1 teacher orientation cancelled ……. Due to tropical systems !! Irene, in September 2011 cancelled our teacher orientation and the first day of school and Sandy cancelled two days of school in October 2012.

    4. True, and with the way the past 2 years have gone, i wouldnt be surprised by some grace of God, ur area in CT ends up with more snow than anywhere else in NE

  122. I think logan comes in at 3.3 inches and some areas just north of the city in Cape Ann to coastal Maine come in with 10+ inches.

    South of Boston towards cape a general 3-6 and most place 3-4 inches.

      1. Yep 6+ for a much larger area and some areas might come close to 10 inches, again very good snow ratios. And we don’t have to rely on a freak set up to get decent snows.

      2. Although the last 24 hours of model runs have been further suppressed and less amplified. I hope BB isn’t onto something. It’s possible some locations pick up more snow tonight then on Friday although the snow should be more widespread. Just wish the storm were a tad stronger since it appears the storm will be racing along and not able to gather as much atlantic moisture as we’d like. Without the gulf feeding the storm we rely on the ocean so it will need to slow down in order to achieve that.

      1. It moves in from the southwest and hopefully becomes it enhanced from the north and east or it’s a bust!

      2. Since its not a uniform cloud cover, I can definitely make out different levels of cloud cover.

        The higher clouds have that almost west to east movement.

        But, the lower clouds, they aren’t the ocean stratus, maybe the are altocumulus (not sure), but they are definitely moving more south to north. Since their arrival, the sky went from milky sunshine to fairly dark and fully clouded over.

  125. Does anyone know if the Friday/Sat storm will be a Fri daytime storm now? Know its still a few days away though

  128. Alisonarod – regarding the snow ratios, the SREF puts out 15: 1 ratios at best. Not to mention we are sitting near 30. Granted the dewpoint is 4, but we are not going to realize 20:1. It’s cold but not that cold.

    1. The daytime temp is 30 now. However, the storm commences overnight where temps drop into the low to mid 20s. Not to mention dew points are extremely low resulting in a very dry low-density snow. Thus a 20:1 ratio will be reached easily. The SREF spits out 15:1 at the beginning of the storm but by the middle of the storm, the SREF puts out 20:1. We can agree to disagree:)

      1. Not to mention Mark, 20:1 ratios aren’t hard to reach. In artic cold where temps are in the teens, a snow-water equivalent can exceed 30:1!

  131. Light flurries have transitioned to moderate flurries here in Manchester, CT. For awhile I could count the number of flakes coming down but now I can’t keep up 🙂

        1. Your very knowledgeable with meteorology but I’m sure healthcare is more rewarding in different ways.

          1. Thanks coastal. I’ve learned a lot from many of you over the years. Healthcare is very rewarding. I’m a PA and own a couple of urgent care facilities. It’s nice to touch so many people’s lives on a day to day basis.

  133. Hi all!

    Have to clear out 200+ spam messages. Yay! 😛

    A couple things first:
    * No significant changes. I’ll try to detail accumulation a little more than the 2-6 / 6+ I have up.
    * (WeatherWiz): The models all have at least one significant flaw. I just think the Euro has the least.
    * The short range models DO NOT handle Norlun set ups very well. If you know how to use (or not use) the model, it can be to your advantage when trying to forecast these things (and it’s still not an easy task).
    * The Euro, as expected, has slowed the timing of the late-week system to where I figured it would put it. Let’s see if that holds.

    Be back in a while!

  136. Outer cape is 8-10 and most of the coastal areas are 6 inches.

    Based on TK comment I am betting he think totals will be higher than what the NWS was showing earlier 🙂

      1. Makes sense that only the north shore and the south shore receive warnings. The NWS is not confident that the rest of the area will receive warning criteria snow amounts although some within the advisory very well could. Playing it conservatively…It’s nowcasting time.

  138. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=march%2021%2C%201992%20maine%20snowstorm&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDYQxQEwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fviewer%3Fa%3Dv%26q%3Dcache%3A54GaRk__YGIJ%3Awww.weatheranswer.com%2Fpublic%2FNORLUN2.pdf%2Bmarch%2B21%2C%2B1992%2Bmaine%2Bsnowstorm%26hl%3Den%26gl%3Dus%26pid%3Dbl%26srcid%3DADGEEShgM-22yzON4svHKcgwSj7DrAgaIPE87A-Uqbz8irlv5IXmm5xa1ZZ2p8lqhTkp35P1oRZc6wuqkzIXqskjb_vQ6z2uluFbXuZGFCs5cWI1frBLjoMKF8xCl1ewDFBH0zJCztKD%26sig%3DAHIEtbQOpMBYdxynUEYOnF6nCPNe9qr99w&ei=wqr9UI2rB–Q0QGo2YDABg&usg=AFQjCNHL7a4JZYe81G1hj5yynxpyQs1ymg&bvm=bv.41248874,d.dmQ

    The first couple paragraphs on page #1 can give you an idea of what norlun troughs are capable of. Paper by Weir Lundstedt?

  140. There was a good reason I changed my initial 6-12 on the coast to 6+. Needed to leave the top end open until things started to get more clear.

    I like 2-4 northern RI, 4-6 southern RI, 2-4 in the 495 belt of MA to south central NH, 4-8 most of eastern MA, 8-12 Cape Cod, Cape Ann, and up thru eastern Essex County and NH coast, with an isolated 12-15 inch amount.

    1. Wow TK! That surprises me. What makes you think that 4-8 inches aren’t a bit overdone in the advisory area?

      1. We have 1-2 inches by 11PM or midnight, most of it falls after midnight around dawn, and the accumulation is mostly over by 8 or 9, if not a bit before.

      1. I agree TK regarding the ratio. Mark seems to think ratios will barely be 15:1. Does he see something that we don’t?

      2. surprised to see flurries already with such a spread between dp and temp TK? Is it L.L. moisture with SW wind?

        1. It isn’t as dry just overhead as it is right at the surface. The very cold and dry air is shallow.

  142. Current Taunton Nexrad. Anytime now!

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    Here is the Li, NY Nexrad: (Yellow showing up already!)

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

      1. 15Z SREF snowmaps

        12 hour total at 21 hours:

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013012115/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f024.gif

        at 24 hours:

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013012115/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f024.gif

        at 27 Hours:

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013012115/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f027.gif

        at 30 Hours:

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013012115/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f030.gif

        Some one is going to hit the jackpot! 😀 😀 😀

          1. Those ratios have to be off. That shows the Cape in the 5:1 – 10:1 ratio. With the qpf liquid amounts, the snowfall amounts predicted dont match up.

            1. Of course it is! And CC would have to be above freezing to achieve 5:1 ratios! The SREF is off the mark on the ratios which will further surprise people with higher totals.

  145. Light coating now on sidewalks and cars in Manchester, CT.

    Alisonarod – my presumption on the snow ratios was based on the SREF output which did not appear to ever get to 20:1. You may very well be right, and if TK agrees then you probably are.

    I think we should all mark this day on our calendars – it is the first snow event in history where TK is on the liberal end of the projected snow totals. Did NEWW just hire him??

  146. In both the March 1992 Maine norlun trough event and Outer Cape Cod’s Feb 1993 norlun trough event, the areas affected received 12-20 inches of snow in a period of 6-8 hours. Wonder if they had the anomolously mild ocean to work with in those events ?

    1. Good point and most likely not. If this really sets up, some areas will get
      pummeled. We shall see.

      What concerns me, is that the snow is getting fairly heavy quickly in response
      to cyclogenesis to our South. This in combination with a Norlun??????

      Well, who knows.

      1. I’m not sure. 🙂 Plenty happy to see it snowing in Hartford and starting up in Worcester. Feel like this is all bonus snow right now.

  147. Edge of precip in NYC. Looks as if it’s about to end there already and it just started! That concerns me. TK?

    1. This storm does NOT concern NYC. It is inconsequential to our event.
      Development is mostly off shore East of NYC. Response should mostly
      be in our area. We shall see.

  148. Its filling in. The energy is hitting the ocean and just creating precip (this is called something but im not 100% on terms) but its growing over the ocean and throwing it into SNE. Heavy band over LI right now too

    1. notice how that band over L.I. is moving from SE to NW ever so slightly.

      Atmosphere starting to twist a bit.

    2. Note the precip over the great lakes moving west to east. The precip to our south is moving more east than north so far. Let’s see what happens as the storm gathers strength off the atlantic.

      1. For me, early development is really cool. I like what appears to be an early band setting up SW to NE roughly from Greewich Ct. right up to Worcester. Looking forward to seeing how and where this evolves

      1. I dropped at of dealer this morning so they can do there thing. Get back tomorrow night for good. Will test 4×4 for next storm.

  151. The edge of the precip near NYC is not a concern regarding the forecast. We have a low redeveloping and an inverted trough that will be responsible for the snow in the WHW forecast area.

    1. A few days ago TK this surface low was going to travel too far south and east of the area to give us a direct hit. It was the trough that was going to be responsible for the snow. Is this low that is redeveloping tracking closer to SNE? If yes, is this why we could see higher totals in addition to NORLUN?

      1. The closer low track adds a bit, but it’s really just being able to pinpoint the trough and then taking into account the ratio.

      1. 6 should be ok. This snow will be so dry it will just blow to the side of the road for the first couple hours.

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