Not So Fast (Snow Update)

39 Comments

11:14PM

I am beginning to hate the phrase “high bust potential” but I am glad I used it, because a shift of just a number of miles in the development of things means a big change in snow amounts for the ongoing (or not too ongoing) event. Instead of getting into the details of why things are going the way they are, we’ll just outline the newly expected snow amounts, nothing that there is a jackpot area of over 4 inches in southern RI which occurred Monday evening.

There will indeed be a trough development but the latest info suggests it will be just a little further offshore, keeping the heaviest snow out over the water and only brushing the remainder of eastern MA and only giving a moderate (at most) amount to coastal northeastern MA to NH. The dusting to inch or so that has fallen in areas from just west of Boston westward is about it. The few to several inches that have occurred over southeastern MA may be added to a little more, especially over Cape Cod where the new expected amount is 3-6 inches. There is still uncertainty from  Boston northward along the coast, and especially from Cape Ann to NH Seacoast where a 3-6 inch burst is still possible overnight and early Tuesday.

The remainder of the discussion is unchanged from the previous post…

Midweek Arctic cold: Still expecting a nice dose of pure Arctic air for Wednesday & Thursday. A weak disturbance will pass south of the region and bring nothing more than a period of high and middle clouds early Thursday, otherwise it will be dry and very cold.

Late week storm threat: Yes it’s still there. And it’s still too early to provide details, but my best guess is that it will be a Friday night / Saturday threat (still some timing issues to be worked out), and threaten the region with a significant snowfall. A few snow showers may linger Sunday depending on the speed of an upper level trough moving through the region. It will be cold, regardless, right through the weekend, though not as cold as at midweek.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Areas of snow, favoring coastal MA and NH. See updated amounts above. Lows 14-19. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy to partly sunny. Any snow mainly coastal areas north of Boston tapering off, with some additional snow showers crossing Cape Cod. Highs 20-25. Wind NE to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 0-5 except 5-10 urban centers and Cape Cod. Wind NW to W 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH. Wind chill below 0 at times.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: AM clouds / PM sun. Low 2. High 20.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 10. High 27.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 12. High 27.

39 thoughts on “Not So Fast (Snow Update)”

    1. YW Charlie. And my joke about you in the elevator on the preview post is just that, a joke. Thanks for your regular comments on the blog. 🙂

      1. haha I enjoy the fiesty but professional jokes and enjoy the blog, thanks again, about an inch, not expecting much more until Sat when I think alot of us could see 4+ inches, goodnight

    1. It’s over John for our areas, got about an inch maybe just under, no shovels needed, sun shines enough it will melt it, have a good night 😉

  5. Thanks TK !

    My guess is about 1.25 inches. Still flurries flying and looks like some returns east of Providence and west of Marshfield by a couple of miles. We’ll see if anything comes of that.

    1. Figures tom, a dud. You got more than where I am at work. I was hoping you got an extended day. Well you still can, cough, cough.

  8. It started snowing lightly in Lynn at 620 pm and stopped two hours later. Grand total? About a HALF INCH… Life goes on… 😉

  10. Thanks TK. Looked out the window at 3:30 and saw filtered stars. Figured the unpredictable had happened and it had gone east Anyone reading anywhere would know it was a tough one to call and did indeed have a high bust potential On to Friday :).

  13. I’m guessing central and northern Mass, from Worcester, points east dont have much more than a thick dusting to 1/2 inch on the ground …. which may sublimate once the sun comes out or when the very cold air arrives. I wonder if the bare ground or relatively bare ground may allow the bright sun of Wednesday and Thursday to cause the high temps to be a couple degrees higher than the models are forecasting. Either way, still very cold.

    Hoping for not the monster storm on the EURO. In that intensity and thus with that wind, my area would never stay all snow for the whole storm.

    Interesting timing, starting integers (particularly negative) today and will be working with negative numbers the next week or two.

  15. Lets hope the king is the king.

    We all knew last nights storm was hit and miss chance. Not a classic set up.

  16. Wxrisk.com
    ‎***ALERT*** ALERT**** 0Z ECMWF model goes WOOF!!! And for eastern new england WOOF WOOF… the new euro is IDENTICAL to the 12z EURO from monday and the 12z euro ensembles. in this time frame from 72 to 168 hours is where the ECMWF excels.

    The model…not ME.. Increases the amount of liquid thus LOW produces.more snow..The model takes the LOW from SE KY or northeast atn TO NC COAST then ne off of eastern va to se Mass by saturday am. This travck drops a large area of 4to 8 inches of snow over eastern half of KY.. All of va allof MD DEL the southern half of PA all of NJ NYC..into ne PA se ny and central new england. Hells bells even 4″ into hampton roads…

    Much of se ky and WVA sees 8 to 12″ as does all of eastern new england.. With 12″+ over boston

  17. As I said yesterday after last winter I will take any snow with these systems. An inch here to whiten the ground and make it look like winter and with the cold temperatures it will be staying the rest of the week.

  19. I think Friday/Saturday’s Storm will sail south of us with little impact.
    Pitchers and catchers report soon and I saw some green patches in my lawn this weekend.

    Spring is right around the corner!!!!

  21. That would be great if that run of the EURO verifies. Right now and this could change its looking more and more like will have snow late Friday into Saturday. The question is how much???

  22. An obvious problem that we’ve been facing is the lack of blocking is making these storms either weak, very fast, develop too late and all three.

    Makes me a little nervous for this weekend.

  23. Good morning all!

    I re-blogged again, just to make myself feel better. 😉

    Just posted it…

    Have a great day!

  24. I really wish we could just fast forward to maybe late June so that football season starts, I can’t wait 4 months ugh!! It won’t be long, did anyone know the Patriots are the 5th most valuable franchise in the world and in 2013 Forbes est’s the franchise to move up to the 4th most valuable franchise in the world, it was an article, can’t wait till Aug Go Patriots!! I want football back!!

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