Has Anyone Seen My Norlun Trough?

470 Comments

7:21AM

Has anybody seen my Norlun trough? Oh there it is! Sitting offshore, NOT doing what I expected it was going to do. Well, it is doing it, just not WHERE I expected. Oh well, chalk up another forecast bust and move on, right? That’s all I can do here, folks. So here we go.

This one is short and sweet, and a little bitter…cold that is. A few snow showers today as reinforcing arctic cold moves in and hangs around through the middle of the week. The coldest days will be Wednesday and Thursday.

A winter storm threat looms for the end of the week, something we’ve been seeing in the cards for a while. At this still-early stage it looks like low pressure will make a run up just off the East Coast late Friday and Saturday bringing the chance of significant snow to the area. It should be gone by Sunday which would be a cold day. A moderation in temperature may take place by the start of next week, probably temporary, as the longer term pattern still looks colder.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Highs 24-29. Wind W 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low around 0 inland to 5-10 urban centers and Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 15-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-5. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 14-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 8. High 25.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow to flurries. Low 18. High 26.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 11. High 27.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 17. High 35.

470 thoughts on “Has Anyone Seen My Norlun Trough?”

  3. TK, thank you for the update. As I said in a previous post, Barry Burbank stated 6-12″ for the weekend if things hold as they are now. Unusual for Barry to give an amount this early on.

  4. I LOVE IT – great post TK – still laughing.

    Still about 1/2 inch in Framingham but a lovely morning!

    2. whoa – not so fast my friend……isn’t the true alisonarod storm in the wings?? Yesterday was intended by mom nature to be a distraction – a tease – a test – with the full intention of creating doubt. Don’t let her get to you. Now it’s buckle down to the real storm time 😉

      1. No really. The “true” Alisonarod storm would have been last
        night/today. If anyone would like to stretch that to Friday, fine with me. 😀

        1. shhhhhhh – we are pep talking here 😉 I may not know nearly as much about weather as you all do but I can be a one woman cheering section!!

          And if all else fails – the more at rainshines for turkey the better!! If I didn’t know better I’d think you are all angling for a place at the table 😆

          1. All are welcome! 🙂 Just let me know when so I can preheat the oven!!

            Today is Tues. We still have many more models and assumptions to go through yet. I think it was Barry last evening that said last night’s storm would be difficult to predict – almost like summer thunderstorms.

  6. As a former poker player, I’d say our Aces just got busted! 😀

    I wish I stuck to my guns yesterday. I was saying bust all day Sunday, but
    then yesterday, it looked like a certainty and I got sucked back in again. 😀

    Last evening we had to take a drive down to Braintree. The roads were fine as they
    were salted. No problems at all. Returned about 9:30 PM and as I got out of the car and looked up, not only was the moon shining through the clouds, but Jupiter as well! I knew then it was ALL over. 😀

    Oh well, now there is Friday. Let’s see what we get.

    Carry on.

    1. Sorry OS – in my books you saw mom nature’s test and rose to the occasion!! As any true man will do, you let her think she had you fooled at the end when in fact you didn’t.

      Phew……I’m all pep talked out but I have to say that with each and every storm/system, the reading here gets better and better and I learn more and more. It’s a win all around I’d say!

      1. 😀 I think we all have learned much and continue to do so.

        I think we should call this last event the case of the
        “Nolun Trough”. 😀

  8. Am I in the Twilight Zone??????

    Just looked at the 06 GFS. Is it out to lunch? All it has for Friday is a
    Wimpy clipper system weakly redeveloping down the coast and passing
    A bit too far off shore (much like last night). ??? Huh? What up?

    0Z Euro basically shows a bomb:

    http://home.comcast.net/~dhinchli/pwpimages/EURO%282%29.jpg

    0Z Canadian on board with a nice system:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=102&fixhh=1&hh=096

  10. So the euro paints 12″ to 18″ for eastern mass Fri/Sat. I doubt it! I am sure something will happen to prevent this: no blocking, flat jet so on and so on. When models are offering this 5 to 6 days out and continue in day 3 to 4 it worries me. Look for the euro to change its tune that closer resembles the GFS this afternoon.

  12. Now just because last night did not work out let’s not start doubting ourselves. We get more right than wrong:)

    GFS will come around to the EURO and CMC solutions just not to that extreme.

      1. From NWS:

        THE ECMWF IS MOST
        AMPLIFIED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AND HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
        TRACKING NEAR CAPE COD WHICH WOULD BRING A BLOCKBUSTER SNOWSTORM
        TO SNE WITH MIX/CHANGE TO RAIN IMMEDIATE COAST. THE GFS IS LEAST
        AMPLIFIED AND MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH WEAKER LOW TRACKING NEAR THE
        BENCHMARK WITH RESULT BEING ONLY A LIGHT SNOW EVENT. THE EVENTUAL
        OUTCOME WILL LIKELY FALL IN BETWEEN THESE 2 SOLUTIONS WHICH ECMWF
        ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS SHOWING A MODEST STORM TRACKING NEAR THE
        BENCHMARK…STRONGER THAN GFS BUT WEAKER THAN OP ECMWF

  14. From NWS in Upton, NY
    MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
    CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A MODERATE SNOWFALL EVENT AT THE END OF THE WEEK
    AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPS SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
    PHASES WITH NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LAST
    SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES TAKE THE LOW FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEYS EAST
    ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRI…TO SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRI
    NIGHT. 00Z GEFS AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
    AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THIS TRACK. INVESTIGATING THE GEFS
    MEMBERS…MOST OF THE VARIANCE FROM THE MEAN APPEARS TO BE IN
    TIMING/INTENSITY OF THE LOW AND NOT AS MUCH OF A TRACK ISSUE.

  15. Gosh I hate to say this but the last couple times the EURO showed a solution like this at this timeframe, the thing ended up going poof. I know everyone keeps saying this is the sweet spot for the EURO’s timeframe, but theres really been nothing sweet about the EURO lately. Not saying I trust the GFS either, but given the current set up, i could easily see the GFS solution verifying. Hope I’m wrong!

  16. TK, thank you for your forecast. No criticism from me. Norlun’s are difficult to forecast. Moreover, you and others pointed out the bust potential along with the very weak low associated with the `storm.’ Notwithstanding my concern about the warm-up next week, I’ll take this week’s weather anytime. I don’t even mind if it doesn’t snow. It’s cold, fresh, insects are dead, sky is beautiful.

    Anticipated thaw in Western Europe is about to occur. Transition day number one, today. Should be back to 40s , light rain, and wind on a daily basis by the end of the week. Some are even forecasting 50s.

  17. I highly doubt the GFS is correct in this set up. I doubt the EURO is correct either. Split the middle and that’s what we get, a nice snowstorm. Not a blockbuster but not a dud either.

    1. 😀 Anything is possible at this point. They way things are going, this thing
      goes OTS or poof or a lakes cutter…. 😀

  18. I really wish we could just fast forward to maybe late June so that football season starts, I can’t wait 4 months ugh!! It won’t be long, did anyone know the Patriots are the 5th most valuable franchise in the world and in 2013 Forbes est’s the franchise to move up to the 4th most valuable franchise in the world, it was an article, can’t wait till Aug Go Patriots!! I want football back!!

  23. Would be a nice change if this storm is a slam dunk 2-3 days out with all variables decided so we can just relax and wait for it to arrive. Its fun looking over each model run and deliberating but its also exhausting 🙂

  25. I just saw it on TWC the GFS give a 1-3 inch snowfall but the EURO gives a nice 6-12 inch snowfall from D.C. to Boston with 12 plus Boston north to Portland along the coast.
    My gut tells me a 2-4 3-6 inch snowfall right now.

  28. Vicki….if there is a rain/snow line with this next storm it looks like tea will have to be at your place. 🙂

    1. hahahaha – at this point I’m finding myself looking out the window and being excited about a half inch. I am reading this discussion and feeling a sense of deja vu……….poof.

      1. That’s probably going a bit too far, however, I really think
        you are onto something with this next system. Mid Atlantic
        snowstorm, but not for us. 😀 😀

  31. First of all, the NAM at 84 hours isn’t all that reliable and it still does throw snow up into our area. Not sure how much just yet because at 84 hours it just begins to snow here. I won’t get nervous until the Euro and Canadian jump off the bandwagon. Someimes you guys are more negative than sox fans were before we won the World Series. Think Snow!

  32. 12Z NAM = )*(!@*(#$^!@&^#$&*!%^@&*$%$!%*%@$*&%

    If you look at the 500MB, 300MB and 200MB, it has OTS written all
    over it. Sure perhaps a Northern Fringe grazing. 😀

    Let’s see what the rest of the 12Z Guidance has to say. As Hadi correctly points out
    this is the NAM at 84 hours. NAM best at 48-60 hours in. 😀

    1. From Our Friends at NEWW:

      we want to make mention that even though all guidance is looking like a go, there could be some changes, these changes come in the form of a strong Arctic High pressure ridge, it is entirely possible the placement of this ridge could shunt the next approaching system to the east as well, but more on that later.

      Now there’s a switch. With all of their sensationalism, they’ll probably be
      correct with this one! 😀

      I am really beginning to smell BUST for Friday/Saturday. I really AM.
      Hope I am wrong.

        1. What do you mean again? My initial feelings on that last
          system were spot on. I am just telling you how I feel.
          Certainly, you don’t have to agree. 😀

          Let see what shakes out.

              1. I agree. OS tends to be a bit of a model hugger but I still love him. Let’s try to look at all of the overall features and piece this thing together.

                1. Model hugger, eh?

                  Never used to be. Hey, I just respond to whatever moves me. If a specific run moves me in anyway, I respond and post as such.

                  If you would like to call it model hugging, so be it.

                  😀

  34. looking at the NAM it want to blow up off the coast and if that’s the case its not going OTS. It will only go OTS if it’s weak and flat and at 84 that is not the case.

    Everyone needs to keep a level head and jump on each run either way. Let’s analyze the runs rather than jump on one run.

  35. The pendulum swings back and forth with most models until they get enough close in data to stick with a track. Nothing new.

  37. After licking my wounds, I’m off to the next storm. Just have to keep our heads up high and not let one bust discourage us from trying to accurately predict our next event.

    And with that, our next event is going to be a big one. There looks as if there will be just enough digging and amplification of the southern jet to merge it with northern stream energy from the north. Given the strength of the PV, I’m not expecting a blockbuster for the ages. However, I certainly am not buying into the NAM which is known only for it’s short term forecast. Look for a blend between the EC and GFS with more emphasis on the EC which also sees support from the Canadian models. I do not feel the storm becomes as amplified as the EC suggests bringing well over a foot in the Boston area and heavy snow to mix/rain along the CC. The PV is far too strong to allow that to happen. However, I also do not feel that the storm will be as flat or as weak as the GFS suggests. Both possibilities can happen as we all have learned time and time again. I’m placing more emphasis on the EC. It has had its eyes set on this storm for a long time now. And yes OS, if I may, I’d like to stretch the alisonarod storm to Friday. It’s only 4 days off from my original prediction 3 weeks ago! And, we didn’t come too far from a nice snow event last night. I’m calling for a widespread 6-12 inches from the late afternoon Friday-Saturday morning time period. Does anyone else want to hop aboard the snow train?

    1. Guys, put this storm behind you and be productive at work today. NYC to receive one inch but DC area will make out nicely.

  38. Wow, the 12z GFS is even worse. Cold and dry. It’s setting up a pretty consistent run trend now.

    Let’s see what the King has to say this afternoon.

        1. Again, OS, don’t hug the models too much. You know that the NAM does not match up with the other long term models. Recall the NAM being the juiciest 84 hours prior to this last event and how did that work out?

      2. Yes on the snow train, bc you can’t buy the NAM. Unless of course the EURO or CMC cave then we have a trend.

    1. Which is why I’m not buying it. There has been two camps regarding this next storm:

      1) The GFS consistently has been flat, suppressed, weaker, dry and colder

      2) The EC has been more amplified, stronger, jucier and warmer

      Many of us are going to side with option #1 just because things did not work out last night. What we have to remember is that last night’s event was far more complex than this upcoming weekend event. In order to receive our snow, we had to rely on the development, strength and placement of an inverted trough. The inverted trough did indeed occur but a mere 60 miles to our east which made all of the difference in the world. However, this weekend’s storm is more a common setup, albeit, a lot can go wrong. Will the two streams merge, when will they merge, where will they merge, will the PV retreat some, too much or not at all. I’m in the camp of #2. Last night we had a surface low redevelop just south of us despite the strong PV. And if the redeveloping low hadn’t been so weak or had it strengthened much faster, we would have had many inches of snow. The next event will be different as it will be much stronger, much sooner and has the makings of a substantial BM storm. I’ll still not in the camp of a blockbuster, nevertheless, appreciable snowfall looks more likely than a suppressed and weaker system. That’s just my opinion. Take it for what it’s worth:)

    1. We know we hate the GFS because it’s so crazy but it seems to be setting up some run to run consistency with this now which concerns me because the GFS isn’t supposed to be consistent. It’s supposed to be off by 500-1000 miles from run to run even inside of five days.

  41. I think the bigger question is, which model is doing a better job handling the overall pattern. I do remember TK saying a few times the EURO does a good job with that but the placement of surface features has been suspect as of late

    1. Seems like after it accurately predicted Sandy, it went on a several month victory tour and forgot how to predict the weather

  42. The GFS will come around. Remember with Sandy the EURO had about a week prior to the event and the GFS had a fish storm until about 2-3 days prior to the event. The EURO also nailed Irene and the autumn Noreaster. I know its been off for a little while but I think it will eventually straighten itself out.

      1. And even if today’s EC shows a suppressed system, I’m not going to jump on every single model. We need to establish a pattern. The GFS has been consistent and should not be discounted. However, the EC has been consistent as well. Many of us are hanging our hats because of what happened last night. We cannot let our emotions get in the way of forecasting. If got hit hard with snow last night, I’m not sure OS would be discounting the EC as much as he his today:)

        1. How can I be discounting the Euro if I haven’t even seen it yet. The Fish storm reference above was a joke in response to JJ. 😀 😀

          I’ll see what it has to say, then I’ll respond. 😀

          Just not getting a good vibe, is all.

        2. I’m on board. Perfect set-up for more overtime..not sure why you give up so easily old salty. As I told you before looks like a miss and than whamo. Come on man give it a chance.

  43. Thank you all for your insight and knowledge. I would rather be prepared for a big storm and get nothing than hear nothing and get clobbered. I look forward to the next system and all your forecasts and predictions. To tell the truth I don’t even watch the Mets anymore. Thanks TK for getting this started. Best wishes to one and all.

  44. As I said earlier I think were going to get something from this on the order of 2-4 3-6 inch snowfall. This is a progressive system but even with progressive systems you could still get a good dumping of snow as was the case back on the 29th of December when parts of eastern CT got close to a foot of snow.

  47. Hey, wait a second 🙂 🙂 (I’m having fun here, dont take me seriously !!)

    Late last week, when the EURO was showing an inside runner for this coming Friday, a couple of folks CORRECTLY reminded me that the GFS has been better of late than the EURO. I even painfully admitted the EURO’s tough stretch. So, now its back to the EURO, eh ? LOL !!! 🙂

    Again, having some fun. In the EURO I still trust.

    1. Just a 50 mile shift west and we get clocked with that run. Way too soon to nail down track. A lot can change.

  53. If I am looking at the satellite correctly and please correct me if I am wrong but the system is not even on land and models have a tough time when a system is not on land yet.

  54. WOW!! People have become a little bitter today….Its a storm guys we have plenty of time to watch thats half the fun. Nobody knows if its going out to sea or coming up the seaboard not even the models thats why their going back and fourth.

    1. Yeah, I think we’re all a little edgy today. I’m one of those people who hates the cold but loves snow. If it’s going to be cold, it had better snow or I’m a real crank.

  55. Piece number one of the storm is just coming into the west coast later today and overnight. We will see what the runs have to say at 12Z tomorrow and I am sure we might have better consensus by then, once some sampling has occured.

  56. TJ I agree we all need to take a deep breath and remember analog to years past. BDB was supposed to be out to sea 48 hours before and we know what happened.

    Yesterday’s was modeled to dump snow and look what happened.

    1. Can you stand this stuff.

      Maybe I should just try and get some work done! (I’m too much of a weather freak – no discipline)

    2. Hadi,

      I’m in the camp that the storm will not go OTS. However, the UKIE hardly makes me excited. If that was the EURO, I’d be smiling:)

      1. I totally agree!! I am just pointing out that not everything is screaming OTS so people don’t jump off the ledge 🙂

  58. From BB

    “…it should track northeastward to deliver us a classic snowstorm. It has far more potential than last night’s trough because it should be a widespread event of several inches to a foot or so of snow. There could be some rain involved on parts of the Cape. It is really to premature to be confident of specifics but right now it appears that the storm will max out Saturday morning with the heaviest snow and strong winds. With 4 days to go before its arrival, there will likely be some zigging and zagging as usual so this solution/prediction cannot be etched in stone just yet.”

    The most important message here is that models will continue to diverge until we get closer to the event. A lot can happen in 80 hours.

    1. Would be room for concern if the EURO joined the OTS camp but certainly wouldn’t throw in the towel. I’ve done that before and got burned. However, if the EURO continued to show OTS consistently over the next 36 hours, it certainly would appear as if it would be a miss. I’m just not there yet. In less than 2 hours we shall see.

  61. It’s the GFS, NAM (if you want to count that this far out) and the CMC VS. EC, UKIE and UKMET. Who wins?

  62. I will be the first to say OTS if the EURO starts trending that way, but the sampling is not involved yet. So patience is the key.

      1. He and Andersen are the best over there as I’ve put out there before IMHO.

        Whether he’s right or wrong this time won’t change the fact that he’s one to take seriously, again IMHO.

  65. Travelling to New Jersey tomorrow morning, back Friday evening… Anyone want to take a shot at when something might hit down there, and chances of getting out of Newark on friday night?

    Its possible I could bump flights back to thursday night…. but not optimal… Just trying to decide when I need to decide….

    Tom

  67. The biggest issue with our current set up is the NAO not being negative.

    I think HM hinted about this today.

  68. BTW I still think we can get a big storm without a negative NAO, I just think HM never does so he banks on that only.

    1. You could still get a good dump of snow even if the NAO is positive. You won’t get those 12-18 12-24 inch amounts since the storm will be progressive with a positve NAO but you could still get a 4-8 5-10 6-12 inch snowfall.

  69. From Brett Anderson:

    My feeling at this point is that we may be seeing the typical error of the GFS several days out that shows the energy quickly racing out into the Atlantic. I suspect we will see a gradual correction north and west over the next few days. On the other hand, the ECMWF may be a bit too far north and west, especially with all this cold air in front of it. I lean closer, but not all the way to the ECMWF idea with the potential for a significant snow from the Middle Atlantic coast up into eastern New England and then Nova Scotia/PEI and perhaps southern/eastern New Brunswick.

  70. I said yesterday this was going out to sea. BB track record has been tarnished the last 24 hours and I can’t believe he threw out snow totals already.

    Forget about the storm and get some work done. The economy needs you!

    1. This miserable economy can kiss my a** coastal. It hasn’t needed me for five years now.

      I’ll be there for it when it shows me a little more love. More model hugging in the meantime! 🙂

    2. I am glad I was not a patient of alisonarod’s yesterday. I could see myself have chest pains in the waiting room while arod is in the next room over checking the latest SREF plumes on his smartphone…. 🙂

      2. Seriously right – patient thinks he’s squinting over their echocardiogram all the while it’s a plot of the latest model run.

        2. You’ve been at the bar with Charlie, haven’t you Coastal. It’s 1:30 in the afternoon for God’s sake! It’s too early for bourbon!

          ….ok, it’s never too early for bourbon.

    2. Wow! That looks decent.

      I guess we (I) can’t throw in the towel just yet. 😀

      Ok, I’m in at least until the 0Z Euro run. 😀

      1. No O.S. – you stay right where you were. Keep the other side of the bed warm for us. We might be over there yet.

        1. I’m trying to be real. Can’t discount the Euro.
          Factoring in what Brett Anderson had to say, and
          one has to be cautious. This event still could happen.
          Still could also go OTS. Right now I’m cautiously on the snow train. Could change later.

          I’ll have additional comments when/if I am moved to do so. 😀

  73. sometimes i feel like if we mention a storm it turns out that its a nothin or much less. and i beleive the friday/saturday storm will be a light event for southeast areas/cape and islands

  74. Tweet from from Matt Noyes who did pretty much nail yesterday’s event

    @MattNoyesNECN: Undoubtedly, trend this winter has been to strengthen storms quickly, argues for substantial Southern NewEng snow Fri

  75. 12z Euro pretty much depicts what Brett and the NWS are saying as well – what will happen is something in between the Oz Euro’s perfect storm and the OTS scenario, but leaning a bit closer to the Euro solution. GFS has that typical bias sending flat waves out too quickly and then it trends more amplified and closer to the coast as the event nears. I disagree with the above posts that the GFS has been consistent. It hasn’t – as late as the 18z yesterday, it showed a hit to all of SNE. The model has been unstable with the overall pattern. NAM as well holds little value at this timeframe.

    I still feel we have a good shot at widespread 6″+ from this system regardless of what the 12z models today and even the 0z runs tonight depict. We are still 3+ days out and the energy responsible for this storm hasnt even reached the west coast and does not have good sample data yet. We’re not going to have any definitive answers today!

  76. Yeah but….Matt also mentioned is the storm mature when it hits NE or just starting to develop thats the real question.

    1. True I omitted that tweet on purpose 🙂 Don’t want any 911 calls about yelling about the EURO or GFS

    2. If the surface low truly does develop further south of the Carolina coast as the Euro has been depicting, then it will have more time to get its act together before it gets here.

  80. Is this one of the times that GFS has a storm about 6-7 days out and then lost it during like 4 or 5 days and get back on track when it is 48-72 hours before the storm?

  81. Let’s hope scorpius 🙂 I always feel its not great in the medium range. I guess we shall see.

    I am happy to hear Brett and Joe somewhat on board.

  82. That’s my guess scorpius. But we’ll have a much better handle on this by tomorrow night. The shortwave responsible for this storm will be coming on shore tomorrow and the models will start initializing with that additional data. Then they should begin to better converge on strength and track.

  83. It is funny BB yesterday mentioned a grazing with 1-4 inches for Friday. Then someone said today he was saying 6-12. I am thinking he will wish he had stayed with his initial call. I believe this one is going to be another moderate snow producer for the Cape and the Islands. It may be time to move down there. I think NW of 495 will be shut out, again. Don’t worry by the end of next week we will be talking about Great Lake Cutters. I guess my frustration is starting to come out.

  84. Hi All-I have been traveling and busy with work and anytime I would try to post something would come up. Hope all are well.

    12z ECMWF delivers about .25 Boston to Worcester. More to the south about .5 on the Cape and less to the north and west about .20 Lawrence and .15. Hartford to Springfield.

    I will be back later (hopefully) with some thoughts. I really don’t have a well-formed opinion at this time.

  85. Not much QPF for sure. Again I think the sampling is an issue that we can’t figure out until tomorrow. We can continue to watch what might unfold.

    I do think the ridge out west is amplifying well which should help us out.

  86. I think the ECMWF numbers will come down just a little more but they look somewhat reasonable. I think this will be a 1-2 inch north of Boston; 2-4 south of Pike, and maybe 4-6 on Cape and Islands. Obviously that is very early projections, but I think this will sail a little south.

  88. When the low moves onshore as people have been saying then will start to get a better handle. I don’t see a blockbuster here nor do I see a miss at the moment. I see a light to perhaps moderate snowfall but leaning more towards the light snowfall at the moment.

  89. If you live north of the pike u will get less snow, from Boston to Providence south and east will receive the most from this, personally I think if you live north of pike u may get a little more than u did last night, have a good day everyone

  90. Wiiiiiidddddeeeee rriiiggghhhtttt!!! Still early but Providence area east stands the best chance of snow,, almost 2 3rds done with meteorgical winter, in just 3 weeks daylight will be 45 min’s longer

    1. Hey, there is some really cool stuff there, including snow amounts
      for various time frames. I like it.

  93. Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ (1 hour ago)
    Potential still exists for that Friday night/Saturday morning snowstorm…its magnitude remains indeterminate at the present time.

    1. I think Barry is getting desperate also. Can’t blame him — can’t blame any of us. One more potential storms goes poof and I think we will all be batting our heads against the wall.

  94. southern ct rd and coastal southeast mass, cape and islands have the best shot at the higher amounts probably greater than 4 inches. winter storm criteria while every where else south of the pike advisory level. just looking at trends the storm looks further south and or weaker

  95. honestly it is really early but i think a light snow event in genral with southern ct, rd and southeast mass will see a moderate snowfall a low end warning criteria
    2-4 inches across areas south of the pike with 4-8 inches across southern rd,ct and southeast mass out onto the cape and islands. Trend in models are further out to sea and or weaker

      1. Ok, it looks like a little clipper comes by early, before the main one. Here is the 18Z at 1AM Saturday morning:

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013012218&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

        It is in a great position to move up the coast, except for one
        thing: 500MB winds SUCK!

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013012218&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

        So does the 300mb:
        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013012218&var=GRDHGT_300mb&hour=084

        And likewise 200Mb:

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013012218&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

        I know, I know, this is the 18Z NAM, however, this does not
        paint a rosy picture.

        With these upper winds, I don’t see HOW it can go anywhere, but OTS. Unless there is a miracle turning of those winds.

        1. From our friends at NEWW:

          New England Weather Works
          EURO IS A BIT DRY AND FURTHER SOUTH

          Once again we are faced with a new challenge, as we posted last evening showing are true colors and graciously admitting a defeat we mentioned that the Friday Storm was not as etched in stone as many were thinking, going over the latest guidance the EURO is a bit further south with the low and much dryer with it’s QPF. The potential for this to be shunted further East and off the coast remains very possible. Will take a slow approach with this and call for the potential for Light snow only at this time, but strongly caution that important ingredients are not there yet to call this a home run.

          1. Hey,

            If these guys aren’t pushing a big snowstorm, what do you think?

            I look to normal outlets to see what is expected, then check out these guys to see what “could”
            happen.
            😀

      2. Will grant you this OS. Today’s runs surely aren’t as favorable as they were yesterday. Even the EC is further to the east giving SNE a glancing blow. I still need to see more consistency from the EC. If it continues to trend east, then obviously the show is over. I still think it will be a blend of the EURO/GFS. Look for the GFS over the next 36 hours to begin its northwest trend while the EURO’s eastward progresses halts.

        1. Yes, I will certainly be looking for that as per Brett
          Anderson, however, I’m not holding my Breath.
          Upper flow just not looking favorable. We’ll see.
          There is certainly time for a change. All is not lost
          yet, it’s just trending badly at the moment. 😀

  98. It is January 22 and Boston has received 7.4″ of snow so far this winter. We are 1.9″ below last years totals and with no snow in site and a warming trend next week it would be safe to say, Times a Ticking!

    The last time my house received a snowfall at or greater than 3.5″ was February 1, 2011. So it has been 720 days since the last plow-able event. In between we experienced two tropical systems.

    1. The cumulus clouds sitting east out over the ocean this morning were both beautiful and depressing. These clouds arent like the ones out there now. They were fairly tall for winter cumulus and all I could think of was what was going on underneath them….

      Just drove by the ocean and there is still a line of clouds out there, some of which you can see the snowshowers falling from. But again, nothing like the ones I saw around 6:50 am this morning.

      1. Whales do appreciate a snowstorm, you know. When they surface it’s not just for air, they want to see snow.

  103. BTW I believe it gets very cold again as we go into February. Maybe a mild shot next next but very short lived. Plenty of chances of storms coming. IMHO

  104. I think Matt’s mom sitting in his lucky seat has just thrown EVERYTHING off, not just the Patriots. 🙂 We may never see snow again.

      1. I’m serious if it were me I would have taken that seat bc I love the Patriots,, can’t wait till July!!! Go Patriots!!

  106. Whatever happens at least we are experiencing a relatively decent winter. Even the Cape has gotten snow! I don’t care much for the extremely cold weather – however, with snow on the ground and the potential for more snow, that’s ok with me. But come the middle of March or so, I will start to be daydreaming of spring and summer. My gut feeling on the coming wknd.? All I can say is that whatever it does it will be snow, not rain!

  107. You can take the JMA, NOGAPS and the UKIE and toss them out the window. They cannot solely be relied upon. Rather, their guidance are used as adjuncts at best.

    1. I think so, because they received 3.9 inches last Thursday, I think it was Thursday, I’m certain of the 3.9 and then they got 5.0 last night.

  117. PB on WHDH says the potential is there for a half a foot of snow but not thinking the storm will be as juicy as advertised yesterday, hence, he removed his one foot idea.

  118. According to Henry Margusity the “Rapid Refresh Model” predicted accurately the non event with the Norlun trough. He said that the model only goes to 15 hrs. but its accuracy history is spot on. It showed practically no snow in the areas (us) that were forecasted to receive by the other models.

    Can anyone show me what site this model is located?

    TK…is this a model that you would be willing to use on a regular basis even though it doesn’t go out very far according to HM? What are your thoughts on its accuracy?

    1. Wow, they are getting bold. Looks like a widespread 4-6″ with 6″+ in portions of RI and SE MA. Looks reasonable at the moment based on GEFS and ECMWF.

  120. From Taunton:

    22/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
    IDEA OF ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 22/12Z
    ECMWF HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN ITS 22/00Z
    CYCLE…BUT NOT QUITE AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE 22/12Z GFS. CURRENT
    THINKING IS THE 22/12Z GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS DEPICTION
    OF THIS STORM GIVEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT. WHAT IS ALSO DISCONCERTING…IT THE 22/12Z GEFS MEAN 500 MB TROUGH AGREES MORE WITH THE TIMING
    PROVIDED BY THE VARIOUS INTERNATIONAL MODELS. FAVORED A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 22/12Z ECMWF FOR NOW.

    Brunt of storm progged right now for Friday night.

  123. On TWC, I laughed when the headline about “Deadly Storm Jove” changed to something like “Messy Morning Commute Possible”

    Now:
    “Deadly Cold Affects Millions”
    Do you think that next year they will start naming cold days?

      3. I have been around for a while, but haven’t written anything lately. I do enjoy reading the activity here very much.

        I guess I’m mostly a meteorological spectator!

        1. Well its nice to see you posting. I’d be a spectator too if I could keep my thoughts to myself. I am not well disciplined ;). You didnt by chance retire from a business in Watertown did you? I knew an S Clarke there.

          1. Thanks Vicki.

            No, that’s not me. Actually, the name Stephen Clarke is a very long-running joke in my family and not my real name.

            I live in Lunenburg. I think that I am one of the “Westerners” among this group.

    1. Nitey Nite A.R.

      Hopefully the ooz runs are kind to us overnight or we’ll generally be a crankier bunch tomorrow for sure.

  125. Hahahahaha TK when you said “This one is short and sweet, and a little bitter…cold that is.” I laughed so hard hahahaha

  126. The CPC has the brief warmup then going back to normal temps as TK says above but also shows a rain event.

    TK, do you agree with the latter as well?

  127. went on a little buoy tour.

    Interestingly, the one near the benchmark went up .2f in the past 24 hours. Most of the others in our neighborhood are the same or lower by a few tenths except for the one on the south side of Nantucket which was almost a degree lower I think.

    Water is still pretty warm. Let’s see what the next couple of weeks does.

    1. The sun is moving around 16 miles more northerly in latitude each day now and increasing ever so slightly.

    1. Believe me, I’ll be as much of curmudgeon tomorrow if this thing doesn’t look better.

      I’m concerned for O.S. 🙂

      Can you do a wellness check Hadi since you’re the closest. 🙂

      2. I’m not worried about OS. So far everyone is telling him to ignore the models and I think he has a real grasp of how to read into them so I’m worried no one is listening 😀

    1. Enhance by elevation there. I think they are at 1,000 feet or so if I’m not mistaken. I was mistaken, 660 feet. Perhaps in that location, it’s just enough?
      😀

    1. We all ought to hook up for a beer or something sometime or whatever.

      I’m sure we hillbillies out in Worcester County can at least find our way to Natick or somewhere in between.

  135. Retrac. 😀 😀 😀

    I’m fine. I’m beginning to think that coastal and I are on an island by ourselves. 😀

    Canadian – Miss
    NAM – Miss
    GFS – Miss

    Ukie – Hit
    Euro – semi hit
    JMA – Hit
    Nogaps – semi hit

    I’m in the MISS camp. Sorry all.

    1. My daughter watched the news tonight, not sure of the station, but she
      told us that the met said NO SNOW Friday/Sat as it is going out to sea. 😀

    2. No I’m on the island too but have to check with husband to make sure that’s ok :). Even Charlie is calling for snow……that is the one thing that makes be hesitate.

    3. Just sit right back and you’ll hear a tale, the tale of a ……….

      Ok, I’m shipwrecked on the island too !

    4. So the 3 models that perform the most poorly at that range are saying miss. Of course the NOGAPS is saying semi-hit, which worries me that it really will be a big miss. 😛

    2. Tues for framingham too and it is a really nice evening. One where you can breathe deeply and not choke

      1. It is Monday for me, but today due to holiday. What annoys me is that trash is picked up betweeen 7-9 am but recycling picikup can range anytme between 2-5 pm….ugh! Today it was a little after 2 pm, but that is the exception, it is usually more like 3 pm and later. >:-(

  138. OS I am leaning for a miss but IMHO too soon to be in one camp or another. If by this time tomorrow we have no progress than I will throw in the towel.

    I am watching what happens when the storm enters the pacific and see some sampling. Also watching the northern stream and its interaction. Also I agree with the NWS about the high placement over the North Atlantic, shouldn’t allow the ato to scoot out to sea. All still undecided IMHO.

    1. Hey hope you are correct.

      Been a tough Winter forecastingwise.

      Running out for awhile. Will check back in around 10ish, if anyone is still up.
      Lot’s of earlybird retirees on this blog. 😀 😀 waiting for those 0Z runs of NAM and then GFS. 😀

  140. I can’t believe Feb is next week and like what someone stated earlier,, time is ticking, I am in the camp of near to above normal temps and average snow in Feb and I think March will be above normal temps with below normal snow,

  141. Hello Everyone,

    4 Days out and people are throwing in the towel? Come on guys you know better than that. Don’t do anything until we are 24hrs out. Also most storms this year have trended farther north than models have predicted so we got a ways to go.

  142. Total snowfall to date in Wrentham is 14.4 inches, they say on average wrentham receives 43 inches per year, will c

  144. I am not throwing the towel in, but by this time tomorrow we need to see some guidance suggesting at least a close pass.

    1. Yes. I think this caramel flavored DD coffee for the Keurig is pretty good, but I prefer regular just a bit more. 🙂

      Oh you mean the weather??? Let me think…

  148. Glad you’re ok O.S. ! 🙂 These misses are driving us all crazy!

    NAM time…….

    I’m almost afraid to look. As if there’s a real boogeyman in the closet.

  150. No, no ……. Lots going on !

    Two tropical systems affecting Australia. One paralleling its northwestern coast and the other, somehow maintaining its strength while spinning just inland on the northeastern coast. I believe this storm was written about today on accuweather.

    Yet another day where the US radar is virtually blank. When that Feb/early March sun returns to the parched Plains, watch how fast that part of the US warms up. Who knows, maybe that could lead to a trof-ridge-trof spring setup ??

    Plenty out there to track and follow. Worst case scenario, Nantucket becomes the snow capital of southern New England this year.

  151. Even if we miss in Friday, Feb looks to be below average temps. If I am correct isn’t Feb our snowiest month? Tom?

  153. I don’t know if this is true, but it seems like the biggest snows in SNE happen in the single digits of February…

  157. Things up to the 30hr mark on the NAM I notice.

    Up to that point, the biggest temperature contrast runs from the Great Lakes southeastward through the mid-atlantic. When I see that, I kind of visualize the storm track following that contrast, which is fairly far south.

    Look at some precip at least making it near or onto the west coast of the US. Mabe an indication that the western ridge is starting to break down, which may indicate the eastern trof is not going to sharpen up.

    Finally, follow the lows east of us. None of them seem to dart up into Nova Scotia, they seem to head more east northeast out into the ocean.

    By this, I think the later panels will show a surpressed system. Just a guess. 🙂

      1. Yes, the coldest is about Jan 21-22 and the warmest about July 21-22. Its 6 months of uphill, on average :), beginning tomorrow.

  162. The energy coming into California looked a lot stronger on this run – maybe a result of the better data? Not sure if it will translate into anything better here on the east coast but worth noting.

  164. No sooner tweet from Matt Noyes comes in

    @MattNoyesNECN: After reviewing additional data this eve…my confidence increases on a substantial snow hit Fri Night Southern NewEng

  165. Another tweet

    @MattNoyesNECN: A closer track would mean possible coastal mix issues…enhanced coastal front w/heavy snow just inland

    2. i will take that . just keep the mix on the coast and i be happy. big snow big snow for central middlesex. just clobber my area for once.

  170. Total snow for Logan so far as of Jan. 22, 2012 = 7.6″

    Total snow for Logan so far as of Jan. 22, 2013 = 7.4″

    Yes TK, we are well on our way to much more snow compared to last winter. 😉

  171. The additional data must be the NAM run. He must have another source of getting the model results more quickly. Notice some people on the Accuweather forum post images of model results more quickly as well.

  172. Well, looking back at the 12z, the northern part (low, clipper, whatever)…. was progged to be in central Minnesota, whereas on this 0z run, its further north up by International Falls, MN.

  173. nEWW also posting that they have received new data” which says closer track and a “graphic” to come shortly

  175. @MattNoyesNECN: I’m just kidding Woods Hill Weather Crew. This storm is sailing harmlessly south of New England. You should listen to Coastal. He is whicked smaht!

  182. No way Matt Noyes is using a nam run at 84 hours. Pretty much junk
    IMHO. I remember BB saying never to use nam unless within 48 hrs.

  183. Then what could the additional data be? He has received something that supports his thinking he posted earlier today that this will eventually track closer.

  184. I agree anyone would be foolish using the NAM in the 80 hour range to base a decision, and clearly he is not as the nAM is flat as a pancake.

  185. Happy model watching all. Hope the GFS gives some support for his thinking.

    You know, ESPN has a show called OTL (outside the lines). Perhaps we can all work together to fund a new reality TV show called OTS.

    Good night !

  187. Good night Hadi. Not expecting much from the 0z GFS but I do believe the models will trend closer to the coast tomorrow once the Pacific energy comes ashore.

    1. I was saying that earlier today. Way too early to throw in the towel on this one. I thinking a light to moderate snowfall.

      1. I agree but it could be more. That strong high over the North Atlantic is going to turn this thing closer to the coast in the end. Question is how close.

  188. Am I alone now? Hey the 0Z NAM is no Good, however, at 84 hours shows yet another
    clipper approaching. Upper winds depicted as SUCKY to support any meaningful
    coastal development. I sure would like to know what new information is out there?????
    😀

    1. No, I’m still here. Got some work to catch up on so I’ll be up for the GFS. Don’t really think this run is going to tell us much though. Tomorrow is the real Judgement Day…

      1. Suppose. I’m still thinking miss. There has been some
        consistency. We shall see.

        I don’t like those progged upper winds. 😀

      1. I’m thinking that as usual we’ll see TMI, i.e., 3000 model runs that will give a variety of solutions that will tug at the emotions of the vulnerable, when in fact all they are are computer-drawn simulations of the atmosphere set in motion from a set of initial conditions and have really no better chance of being right as they do of being completely wrong. The shift in the NAM at 00z should be enough to drill that point solidly home. 🙂

        There is a storm threat at the end of the week, and it is too early to figure out the details. That’s about it. 🙂

  191. OS you should like this.

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    Technical: I am expecting the 00Z or 12Z ECMWF to be even more robust than last night’s was. My guess. We’ll see.

    By the way CHEER UP!!!

    1. TJ, Thanks for that. Actually I am having fun with this. As much as I would
      like to see it snow, it will do what it will do. As they say, there will be weather, whether we like it or not. 😀

      We shall see if there are changes. I’m not feeling it right now.

      😀

  192. So with Last night’s/This mornings “NOLUN TROUGH” adventure, what should
    we name the Friday System? “BomboCessation”, “Bombapocalypse”, “Bomb-o-Nada”,
    “Bomb-o-Naught”,or maybe “bomb-o-diddly-squat”. 😀

      1. Speaking of that…what the bleep did they do with
        “DANGEROUS STORM JOVE”????

        What bleeping morons they are!()*!()@*#(*!@(#*)(!@*#(*!@*
        😀 😀 😀

  196. 0Z GFS is cranking. Out to hour 24. What will we see? What will we see?
    I’m predicting same ole, same ole, but wouldn’t mind being surprised. 😀

  197. I’m not on board with Matt noyes though he is very good, I think tommorrow morning things will be clearer as we get closer to 48hrs from 1st flakes

  199. Just in from NEWW. I think they’ve been smoking with Noyes!!! 😀 😀 😀

    New England Weather Works
    20 minutes ago
    This is the evening map, we have moved the percentage up from the last post, we are working on detailing the next map for coastal locations where a potential Mix may come into play.

    http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/74964_518133231542825_1568993425_n.png

    OK then, can anyone tell me what NEWW and Matt Noyes are seeing?
    TK? Any thoughts?

    Many thanks

    😀

    2. Soap Box Time.

      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
      1011 PM EST TUE JAN 22 2013…

      OVERVIEW…
      22/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
      IDEA OF ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 22/12Z
      ECMWF HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN ITS 22/00Z
      CYCLE…BUT NOT QUITE AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE 22/12Z GFS.

      This is INSANITY. 10:11 PM and they are talking about 12Z guidance.
      Well OK, I suppose, but 0Z Guidance from the night before?

      How about incorporating the 0Z NAM and the 18Z Nam and GFS into the discussion, even if they don’t like the runs.

      Gimmie NEW information not recycled HASH.

      Gimmie a break NWS. 😀

  200. Still here too OS. Last night’s storm was the little one that couldn’t. This Friday will be the little one that could.

    1. Or the BIG one that couldn’t! 😀
      But I have to say, that map of Matt Noyes sure looks ominous.
      What if that actually happened? WOW!

      1. Awesome storm just needs to be like 20 miles further west. I’m right at the coast and don’t want any rain or mix all heavy snow!

  207. It’s all about trends…

    …and these computer models catching on to what is known will happen.

    The atmosphere knows what it’s doing. 🙂

    I’ve had a feeling about January 25-27 for over a week. Something is up.

      1. I just know there is a chance of something. The GFS means nothing to me. How often does it prove itself reliable? 🙂

            1. Harvey seems to be thinking more OTS, but says possibility still there. Seems like he is biting on the GFS.

  208. Amen! I am with you. Also liking this new non-conservative forecasting style, even if it did go up in flames yesterday 🙂

  209. Any idea what all this “new data” coming in is that Noyes and NEWW are referencing?? There certainly haven’t been any model trends going in the right direction today. Euro and CMC backed off, GFS and NAM have been flat. unless they are looking at something different?

    Regardless, the trends tomorrow is what is going to matter.

    1. I haven’t done much model exploring tonight, so I’m not sure what they were looking at. I was involved in a large stand-up freezer defrost project. 😉

      Best time to store the food outside in boxes. 🙂

      1. That sounds almost as enjoyable as my experience yesterday trying to dethaw our clogged ice maker with a hair dryer!

  210. OS, if you are still there – your NWS post from earlier was from the 5PM update. Long range discussions are only updated in the 4-5PM and 4-5AM discussions. They just update the short term discussions in the intermediate posts.

  211. Tonight Todd Gutner was not really willing to forecast this storm. Gave an overview of the situation but didn’t take a chance at what might happen.

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