The Week Ahead (Update)

360 Comments

This is largely the same post as the previous one, but edited to update for time periods, add a threat of some freezing rain to Monday evening, and lower Tuesday’s temperatures a bit. A few minor changes are made in the discussion below……………………………..

12:43AM

An active week of weather leads off with a warm front moving into the region Monday, the mild air behind it overrunning the cold air in place, resulting in a period of snow and mixed precipitation developing from southwest to northeast during the day Monday lasting into the evening. Though snow amounts will be generally light (mostly under 3 inches), some slippery travel is possible for the Monday afternoon / evening commute and for a few more hours into the night, especially across interior RI up through eastern MA into southern NH. Some freezing rain may take place along the changeover line mainly south and west of Boston during the evening hours, so be aware that a coating of glaze may take place in some areas.

The warm front responsible for the wintry precipitation Monday will slog slowly northward during Tuesday, which will become slightly milder from south to north. The front’s movement will be very slow, so the mild air is going to struggle to reach areas north of the Mass Pike. I’m not expecting much additional precipitation on Tuesday at this point, but with the front not too far away, it’s always possible a few areas of light rain and drizzle (as it will be milder aloft) may occur. So expect clouds to rule more than anything. If a few areas of rain/drizzle take place, they would be most likely to occur during the early nighttime hours.

By Wednesday, as a strong cold front approaches from the west but doesn’t quite make it into the region during the day, expect a stronger push of warmer air from the south and southwest. It’s not impossible that some areas may approach or reach 60, and much of the day should be rain-free, as it looks like the cold front’s timing would bring most of the wet weather, possibly a ribbon of heavy rain including thunderstorms, through from west to east during the evening and nighttime hours.

The cold front should be moving offshore during Thursday, which will transition back to colder weather via a strong west wind and possibly a few lingering rain or snow showers.

The first 3 days of February (Friday-Sunday) look cold and there is a shot of a winter weather event in there as well. There are far too many variations on medium range computer guidance to even attempt any detail here yet, but will make a best-guess for now and then fine-tune as it gets closer.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, RI)…

MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow developing from west to east during the afternoon through dusk except mixed snow/rain South Coast and rain on the Islands. Highs 30-35 except some upper 30s on the Islands. Wind light variable eventually becoming SE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, sleet, and some freezing rain, especially south and west of Boston, with liquid rain outer Cape Cod through the Islands, all ending from west to east around midnight. Snow accumulation in mix areas of less than 1 inch, 1-2 inches elsewhere. Temperatures rising slowly through the 30s. Wind light SE shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle and light rain at times mainly northern MA and southern NH, especially late day/evening. Highs 35-45 north to south. Wind light S.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A line of showers and possible thunderstorms west to east at night. Low 40. High 60.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Temperatures falling through the 50s overnight and the 40s during the day to the 30s at night.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 29.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 18. High 31.

360 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (Update)”

  3. Thanks TK.

    Dawson, Canada : -58F. Houston, TX : 70F, dewpoint of 64F

    I sure hope the precip today and Wednesday in total can amount to something higher than .5, because it is desperately needed. I know winter can sometimes mask dryness, but we need rain or snow soon.

  4. Thanks TK.
    I see Boston is now included in the winter weather advisory. Slippery seems to be the word of the day especially for the pm commute. This is not a big system but the timing stinks. Only expecting level 1 snowfall with this system.

    1. Yes jj. I was waiting for that to happen. Boston is looking like 3inches easily. Some 4inch spots will not surprise me.

  5. If you work in the city try to leave early if you can as 2-3 inches will make it tough. I’m thinking 3 for parts of Boston atleast, this will definitely be more than a coating for the city.

  6. Good morning, great winter day yesterday, sunny and cold, not too windy in the afternoon – I got outside with the kids and dog to play in the front yard.

    We still have a light coating of snow w/bare spots, looking forward to a bit of snow before temperatures moderate for the week.

    Drive safe tonight if you are on the road.

      2. Coastal 1-3 is the call for the city. I’m guessing around .2.5 or 3inches. The four probably north of Boston. Guessing maybe sloppy inch if that down our way.

  8. I agree with the 1-2 inches. Some elevated areas of SNE might be able to squeeze out a 3 3.5 inch amount. Its the light glaze on top of the snow that could be problematic.
    We go from tracking wintry precipitation to rainfall, gusty winds, and embedded thunderstorms for Wednesday night. An ever changing week of weather to say the least.

  9. Does everyone old enough remember where they were 27 years ago today ? (I think today is the anniversary of the Space Shuttle Challenger tragedy).

    1. i beleive it is today, i was not around then but i had a project about it in 6 grade if im remembering correctly

    2. We had just returned from a visit to my OB. I was pregnant with my youngest. I turned on the TV to watch and remember standing in the family room unsure of what I was seeing then calling to mac that something wasn’t right. I have goosebumps even today remembering the tragedy

    3. I was in 6th grade…our guidance counsler got on the loud speaker and told the school what happened. He was crying and it turned out he was related to Christia McAuliffe.

    4. I was 15 at the time. Watched it happen live on TV in disbelief.

      Think about it now and again. Thanks for reminding us Tom.

    5. I should add that I was in high school and the word spread fast across campus and I recall heading to a TV in the student rec hall to watch in disbelief.

    1. yes it was the longest streatch.. i like it this way in winter. i wsh there were more of these kinds of weeks.

  12. 2-4 inches north of the mass pike. highest amounts higher terrain of central mass and interior northeast mass( up to .2 to .25 ice acreation expecially western sections)( snow stays longer in interior northeast mass, higher elevations of central mass so this will cut the ice acreations down a little.) i would take snow over ice any day
    0-2 inches south of the pike ice acreations up . .2 of an inch north of the ct and rd boarder south of the mass pike.
    snow starts around 1-3pm then it starts to mix with sleet,freezing rain and snow from southwest to northeast.
    snow to rain southeast massachusetts rd and areas of southern ct.( coastal areas)
    changes to an icy mix of freezing rain /sleet and some snow mixing in across all of southern new england by around 10pm
    its going to be a bad evening commute and possibly a bad morning commute
    im giving a 3 on my 5 point road condition scale for areas north and west of boston down to sw into northern rd and ct. a 2 across southeast mass.
    morning commute a 2.5 across areas north and west of boston north of the mass pike.
    im expecting some 2 hour delays as freezing drizzle could still be falling by day break.

  13. I think sleet/freezing rain and rain hold down any accumulations esp for Boston points south and east but what do I know, I’m thinking an inch or less in Boston with sleet and rain holding down accumulations, well north and west hit jackpot,, places in southern nh get brunt, have a good day everyone, won’t be home till 3

  14. I’m attending a class this evening on the Boston waterfront, and then walking to Haymarket Station (through the North End) between 8 and 9 pm. Anyone willing to predict what conditions will be like there this evening? Thanks!

    1. Me too Amy, except in Southborough at 6:00 for me. Something tells me I might be worse off than where you’ll be at your time if I had to predict.

    1. You’re right OS. Looks like an inch or less with an isolated 2 inch amount. I wish I lived in central new england for this one.

  16. You were all discussing the Challenger disaster. I have a story to tell, if you don’t mind me sharing.

    If you remember, it was very cold at that time, including down in Florida at
    the launch site. I believe it was in the 20s down there.

    We were watching the 11PM news and after viewing the weather broadcast and the
    previous story about the Challenger launch, my wife told me that she KNEW that
    something bad was going to happen. She told me that it was too cold for the launch and something would fail. She wanted me to call someone. I told her no way and that
    we would have the FBI at our door in a heartbeat.

    She was in absolute shock the next day when the disaster occurred. It was unbelievable. As we all know, the “O” rings failed. It probably was due to the cold.

    Anyway, hope you all didn’t mind.

    1. Wow OS – I have goosebumps as large as golf balls. What an amazing story and what mixed emotions your wife must have had – not that there was one thing she could have done. Thank you for sharing.

      1. It absolutely freaked her out. Btw, she seems to have some sort of 6th sense, as she has done this type of thing about a dozen times. I won’t get into it all, but it is pretty amazing.

        1. OS – my mom had the same sense which is part of the reason I think I responded as strongly to your post as I did. I’d love to hear about your wife’s at some point when we are quiet here.

  17. Re: Ground Hog Day Storm

    A storm, if any, looks to be delayed a bit. So far, most action is progged to be OTS.
    Still plenty of time for changes and the models to get a better handle on things.

    0Z Euro shows quite a system North and East of us. Can’t track it down with Wundermap this morning as it seems to stop at around 105 hours. Oh well.

    Something is brewing, that’s for sure. It just may end up off shore????

    1. I understand, but seriously, I expected a bit more than what is showing
      on the radar. Pretty pathetic Winter so far and we’re at the doorsteps of
      February. 😀

      2. OS – exact same thoughts I was having – if it were not for the timing, this would be a total ho-hum and sadly it’s all we have to be excited about

    2. So is the weekend storm off. Remember though don’t be fooled. We have seen these storms appear to be heading ots only to reappear And give us accumulation.

      1. You want accumulations for the weekend storm, no can do.

        For today, right now it’s looking like an inch at best. 😀
        “Could” change, but that’s all it looks like now.

      2. I don’t know John – considering we have had pitiful accumulation so far I’d say that we see them appear and disappear – period

    1. Exactly, thanks for bringing that up. Because that’s what’s been happening here. Write it off than hey where did that come from. It’s been going that way with the storms, I bet we get something from it.

  21. Wundermap finally had the 0Z Euro out far enough.
    Ground Hog Day storm, depicted as OTS. Really gets going Off shore
    after it passes our Latitude. We’ll see if 12Z run shows any changes. 😀

  23. Groundhog day storm phases way too late once north and east of our latitude. I don’t see anything impressive at all during that time period. This winter surely has been yet another dissappointment. Patterns are important and we’re not in a pattern at all.

  24. Storm after storm we continue to get an inch or less of snow. I’d rather it not snow at all in that case. We have only had one storm worth talking about around Christmas time and that was it.

  25. Thanks, TK.

    I am still not giving up that sometime in Feb./March we are going to get at least one big snowstorm – prob’ly more towards March than Feb. Just my gut feeling. And I just can’t see 60 degrees on Weds. unless sun comes out.

    Regarding the Challenger disaster, whenever I think about it I get a very heavy, sad feeling in my stomach. Very sad. What also is depressing is that there appears to be a decrease in any progress in space exploration and discovery. All about the $$.

    I prob’ly should make my own blog re: the situation in this country, world, etc. Poor quality of food, etc. along w/high prices . . . naaa, not worth it. What will be will be. Enough said! Let’s enjoy the little snow we will get tonight and keep safe if out!

        1. hahahaha – rainshine – I think you need to start that blog – OS and I will keep it going indefinitely 🙂

          1. Thanks, Vicki, OS – I don’t know if I have the guts to do it. I prob’ly would be very popular and unpopular at the same time! If I could change things, I might do it. But for the time being, I will stay in the background and just complain now and then. Maybe someday I will when I’m not such a coward! 🙂

  26. I will never forget the day of the Challenger disaster. I was a graduate student writing software part-time for a small company on the West Coast. The company had worked on the layout and design of the space shuttle interiors. They dealt with the “human factors” such as ergonomics, comfort and psychological well-being. Many of the employees had close relationships with the astronauts.

    This was a terrible day to say the least.

  27. What’s the latest on today for my area (north of Boston ~15 miles)? Sounds like it’s fizzling out or no?

          1. I agree with Vicki. It’s a non-storm both figurative and literally. It’s not even a storm that will be responsible for our snow/sleet/rain. It’s a warm front pushing through creating warm advection snow as the warm air overrides the cold dome in place. As the warm front pushes through, warm air will scout out the cold air at the surface and snow will change to freezing rain/drizzle. Not a storm–just warm air advection precip.

  28. I concur with Tom’s comment above on the need for rain or snow. We need precipitation of any kind at this point. If the pattern holds and we see lots more OTS storms, grazings, or prolonged periods of dry and sunny, we will have major brush fires in March and April. Perhaps worse than last year’s. Of course, the mid section of the country is in even worse shape, and more important in terms of the nation’s food supply and economy.

      1. Not yet. Patterns can change. The remarkable thing is how little is happening this year across the country in terms of precipitation. With the exception of parts of Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. The year they decide to name winter storms is the year that almost every winter storm has been lame.

    2. Joshua I wholeheartedly agree. Sadly when we have the snow at the very cold temps there is not enough liquid included. I know you’ve heard me mention that my husband’s friend in Kansas said they are 12 feet below normal. That sounds extreme and I haven’t checked it out but I don’t know you make up that without severe flooding.

      1. I thought the same thing DS, except don’t count on the snow part of your sentence too much unless we’re talking an occasional 1-3 inch heavy dusting.

  30. Its not just rain with that cold front but gusty winds and possibly a rumble of the thunder. I would not be surprised if wind advisories are posted with that system.

    3. warning ….. warning…. If you did not heed the warnings and shop yesterday, the bread and milk aisles at your local market are empty!

      1. John,

        There is a legend at the bottom. Simply match the color on the map with the color on the legend to determine the map’s
        projected snow amounts.

        Again, the GFS map posted above calls for about an inch
        or perhaps 2 inches for Boston. 😀

        1. Im learning the maps thats why I asked. Why do you keep posting the snow amounts if nothing has changed. most mets going with two for boston.

  32. Slick roads ahead this week: Everyone please drive with caution. Obviously this afternoon and evening will be treacherous in some areas. But, Thursday evening may wind up being slick, too. Thursday evening, we’ll have the combination of dropping temperatures after some soaking rain showers (which may change to snow showers as the front passes through). This can make for bad road conditions as well.

    1. Yes, we certainly need to keep an eye out for that.

      My guess is, however, that temperature will NOT fall fast enough
      to give us a problem. None-the-less, it needs to be monitored. 😀

  33. I think we r gonna be very suprised that the changeover to snizzle and sleet alot sooner, Boston I believe will see 1-2 hrs of wet snow then change to a snizzle sleet then plain rain,

    1. I know the upper levels will be warmer, but ground temps are still stinkin’ cold!

      Would love to see rain much more than I would like to see a silly inch of snow though. Get the salt off !!

  35. After today’s “storm”, I think we will be a foot under normal snowfall totals. I highly doubt that we will make up that amount. I suppose there could be a limited snow event between the 3rd and the 6th. But I really don’t see much on the horizon. Someone tell me I’m wrong and tell me what day there will be a blockbuster!

  37. Snowing in Woonsocket a bit sooner than expected. Perhaps we can squeeze out a whole 1/2 inch more than expected! LOL

    2. Only a few flakes now – if that – and the radar seems to show snow over us – just not falling I guess

      1. Radar is showing lots of holes in the snow. Most of the steady snow is up in central new england and down to our south. Of course we are in the middle where there seems to be a lot of dry air for the snow to overcome. Snowing lightly in Woonsocket where I work.

  39. Just came in from being outside at lunch. STILL can clearly see the disk of the SUN
    shining through that tremendously thick Overcast. 😀

    However, thought I felt the first flake on my face. Looking out the window, don’t
    see anything yet. 😀

    1. From NWS:

      1210 PM UPDATE…

      SNOW WAS RAPIDLY OVER SPREADING WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT AS OF
      NOON. EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
      FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OPTED TO EXPAND THE
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY RIGHT TO CAPE COD GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY
      AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LOW DEWPOINTS. THERE COULD EVEN BE A TOUCH OF
      LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR A TIME IN THIS REGION FOR A FEW
      HOURS THIS EVENING

  40. Extreme western MA extending into southwest CT is seeing steady snow as well as upstate NY. Light disorganized snow is pushing into our area. Nothing organized behind it.

  41. First small flakes in Woburn…seems to have stopped now but it is the beginning I am sure. Have the generator, bread, eggs, and milk on standby…and my shotgun for looters…HAHA.

  44. The dry air is winning out. It looks like it has been snowing all morning in Manchester, NH, but we have not seen anything but a couple flakes and the sun is shining through the clouds. We can’t buy snow this winter. No way are we going to see 2-4inches that the local station up here is calling for.

  46. Not sure how this should last until midnight??? Looking at the radar it’s moving right along…like in and out in 4-6 hours…

  50. Snowing here for about an hr, seems like the salt from last storm on main roads r working great, main roads just wet but back roads have a dusting on it, temp is 32 degrees

    1. I can see the main road at the end of our street, Charlie. It doesn’t have salt – as you know we had our street sweepers out – but it is clear. It would be the traffic that’s keeping it clear IMHO since it doesn’t have any treatment on it.

  52. Snow picking up in intensity and covering the ground. However, note that dry slot already entering western and central MA and moving this way. Beyond that dry slot comes warm air aloft which will result a quick change to sleet/Fr. rain and then rain. Quick half inch and most areas and then liquid.

    1. OS – what does that mean? Is that all we get ? Or is it a hole and the precip to the north and west over NY (Albany) will head here? Either way – it is one big hole.

        1. I can’t even see an inch out of what’s left —- wow. I really hate for our TV mets to be wrong again. It seems to me that hole couldn’t be predicted – or am I wrong – and they are taking a huge hit. Reading the online comments, I actually think people are starting to blame them for the lack of snow. Although to be fair, they said 1-3. People just don’t see the 1 🙁

  56. As noted above, dry slot moving in through central mass. Another hour or two of snow and then it’s all over. Precip will then be falling very lightly and with lack of evaporational cooling, precip will most likely be in the form of snizzle/sleet/freezing rain and then rain. Accumulating snow ends by 4:30 pm eastern sections at the latest.

    1. Are you kidding me, it’s snowing so hard here, I can’t see the building next door. 😀 😀 😀 ha ha ha ha ha ha

      1. i just said that it is snowing really hard not seeing much and its making “snow fog” but none of it is accumulating

    2. I’ve been watching that. Perhaps it will expand. I was think most would
      pass North of us. Need to watch for any Southward progression of this. 😀

      1. I think it gets here but by the time it does, warm air will begin to win over so the snow will be short lived.

  65. First flakes around Woburn were around 2:15PM but right after 3PM it got steady and the visibility dropped off. I wouldn’t qualify it as “moderate” but it’s really close to being that. Ground instantly covered. Yes, there is a break in the action heading rapidly across central and southern MA with more behind it. The meaningful stuff will all be done before midnight. With some luck it will stay cold enough that we never flip to freezing rain in the Boston area and northward. Areas to the southwest may have to deal with some icing later. We’ll keep an eye on it.

  66. I have to say, intensity has certainly picked up considerably. It now actually looks like
    it is snowing out. Vis down to a mile or so. Cars covered with snow. Streets and sidewalks just wet due to the tremendous amounts of wasted salt already there. 😀

  67. Back edge at 495, it is rapidly moving east, then occasional snizzle, sleet and rain for some, most less than an inch, hope all is well,

      1. TK, by the time the second batch gets in here, temps at the surface would have warmed sufficient enough to shut off the accumulating snow. Perhaps mixed showers of snow/sleet/rain.

        1. The second batch will beat the warm air – it’s moving at nearly 100 MPH in strong mid level winds.

        1. The second batch forming in NY state that is moving eastward into western MA will not pack the same punch as this first batch. It looks fairly disorganized. Will see:)

  68. Thar she blows folks. Snow is out of here for some within 15 minutes and for the rest of us in eastern mass within 30-40 minutes. We may pick up a few scattered snow showers on the back end before changing to rain showers this evening. So in summary, it would have snowed for a total of 90 minutes with most locations picking up yet another coating. Once again, the METS were way off.

  69. It’s also important to keep this in mind: Existing precipitation is not the ONLY precipitation. This is a warm front. Overrunning is taking place. New precipitation is forming from warm air being lifted over the cold air. Weather is not a block floating in water, it’s fluid moving within fluid. Textbook meteorology going on here.

    1. Safe to say accumulating snow ends for eastern mass after this first batch exits the coast. Warm air in the mid-levels take over changing snow over to mix and then rain if a second batch were to arrive as you say.

  70. Sometimes it’s just so obvious when looking at the radar and I’m not sure why the METS ignore it despite what the computer models tell them.

      1. Either that or we just all really suck… And it’s time to hand it over to the non mets who can do it 100% better. 😀

  73. What I said was this:

    There is other precipitation generating. It’s not a solid entity.

    Almost 1/2 inch at Woburn so far.

  74. Not excited about snow that doesn’t stick around. Even when I was a kid and we had a southeaster that first produced several inches of snow and then all rain, I wasn’t thrilled about the snow. What I am happy about is any form of precipitation. Several batches expected this week. The ground needs it. The cars need it. The ecosystem needs it.

  76. Vis Here was Briefly down to 3/4 mile or less, now back up to about 1 mile or so.

    It does now look like we’ll get back into some decent precip again. 😀

  77. Snow has let up in intensity, prolly around a quarter to maybe half inch in wrentham, I expect periods of wet snow sleet and rain and some freezing rain further inland, all roads r clear 🙂

    1. And while snow is filling in, the back edge of this second batch is already pushing through western MA.

  84. Snow already changing to a mix at least above the surface over the Bershires. Snow/mix line progressing east along with back edge of precip. Not sure what TK is seeing but he’s the expert. 😀

    1. Yeah my bad…it turned to sleet not straight rain…even now it looks like it’s doing nothing until you get closer to the window.

  86. north billerica trainstation 23 snow coating
    northwest billerica snow coating
    nuttings lake26 snow 1/2 inch
    center 29 sleet 1/2 inch
    my house 21 snow/sleet ( pinhurst west) coating
    east billerica 28 sleet coating
    the advantage of having freinds that is as fasinated with weather as i am and have their own weather stations as well.
    We did this in 2011 maybe this will bring that kind of winter back to us this second half of winter 😉

  87. I’m not generally in the habit of verifying a forecast before the event really takes place.

    You all know very well that I’m the first to admit a busted forecast.

    Maybe others, not so much. But over 20+ years of using a degree I worked very hard to obtain, I’ve learned how to take failures with successes, believe me.

    This forecast won’t work out perfectly, but it won’t fall flat on its face either.

    In the paraphrased words of Charlie, have a nice day. 😀

      1. I’m constantly wrong but with all due respect to TK, the forecast was not right on the money at all IMHO. Back edge moving through springfield. Most places end up under an inch and snow shuts off before 6 pm followed by patchy snow/mix/rain showers overnight. Forecast was a bit of a bust unfortunately 😀

        1. You that tough with all of your patients?

          From above TK states: “Snow accumulation in mix areas of less than 1 inch, 1-2 inches elsewhere. ”

          Looks pretty damn good to me. 😀

          1. OS. I’m going to be judged how I treat my patients if I disagree with one’s forecast? Let’s be serious. And, it’s okay to disagree with TK every once in a while. You don’t have to suck up to him 😀

            1. You’re pretty tough. All I’m saying. 😀

              Not sucking up either. He’ll be the first to tell you that I disagree many times.

              1. I also think TKs comment was right on the money and its still snowing. It’s what I said earlier. TK said 1-3. We are closing in on 1 here. Spot on

                That’s all she said

      2. Well, gotta get to around 1 inch. I had 1-3, then trimmed back to 1-2 for Metro Boston. There will be less than 1 inch from the immediate city southward through SE MA and CC and RI as well. Maybe some 3ish amounts MA/NH border into southern NH.

        I’m also started to doubt we ever change to freezing rain just NW of Boston. Cold air is locked and deep enough that the warm air aloft may be only enough to send rain drops into cold air enough to freeze it all the way to sleet later. In fact, I don’t think areas near and north of Route 2 go above 34 degrees until late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.

        Our buddy Scott noted that up where he is in VT that the forecast high in the 20s today fell flat and it’s barely over 10 right now.

  88. Things are about to temporarily go downhill really quickly just NW of Boston then into the city itself. Quick 1/2 inch+ of snow coming between now and 6PM – possibly mixed with some ice pellets.

      1. I know. Things can get pretty nasty over there in the mountain ranges of west Woburn!!! 😛

        1. Funny though…is it just me or does Woburn always seem to be on the line of these storms? Man, snow is POURING down now…hard.

  89. Still snowing here – light but steady – main roads here are clear and I just spoke to my husband who is driving Route 30 from Watertown to Framingham and the main roads all along that route are clear. Temp holding at 29 here but wunderground has 25.6 a mile from here. I am typically much closer to their reading so not sure what’s up.

  91. Snow just picked up here – moderate. Radar filled in very nicely with light to moderate snow over southeastern MA heading down toward Plymouth. Should be good for a fast 1/2 inch there as well.

  92. Quick burst of snow coming. Back edge approaching Worcester. I was under the impression that this was going to be a longer duration event of several more hours–not two short bursts of snow.

    1. I would say more like very low probability as storm looks to phase and energize too far east of our latitude.

  96. Both Euro & GFS can’t figure out what to do with pieces of energy around the base of the trough for the Feb 1-3 period. It’ll take a couple more days for that to happen.

    Still carrying a “chance of snow” for Saturday. That’s really all that can be known at this point.

    Beyond that, models are even more confused. GFS wants to bring an anniversary snow for February 6, while the Euro wants to bring a batch of pure Arctic frigidness across New England.

  97. Under 1/2 mile vis. at Woburn in moderate snow. Over 1/2 inch – closing in on the lower limit of the 1-2 inch range here. Main roads are snowcovered and traffic is moving slowly on them.

      1. The last of this batch. There is another one upstream… Forming in the same place and the same way as the one over us now.

        1. What can we expect from additional accumulation? Would it be a waste of time to cleanup my driveway around 7pm?

          1. Most of the moderate snow confined over Boston and stretching just to the west. Most other areas come in an inch or less. I see another disturbance forming over upstate NY. Most of the energy likely to stay just to the north of the area and will be less organized. At the same time, warmer air will be eroding away the cold air.

          2. It will probably be snow or mixed snow/sleet around 7PM. That would be the 3rd batch, and yes I do believe it will cover at least the northern half of MA including Woburn.

  98. All snow in Uxbridge. About the same as here. SIL shoveled about 30 minutes ago and everything is covered again.

  99. north billerica train station snow 25
    northwest billerica light snow24
    nuttings lake light snow temp 25
    center snow20
    my house ( pinhurst west) light snow 22
    east billerica snow 27
    period of sleet mixing in but it changed back to all snow about 10 minutes after i posted the conditions.

  100. second batch of ny state moves basically west to east with some of that mix bag of mix moving across areas north of the pike expecially north of rt out through northeast mass?

  101. 0.3 inch snow changed to freezing rain in Bristol RI (observation from a friend/meteorologist). If we wanna verify things early, I’m verifying in that area so far. 😉

  102. You know you’re a WoodsHill Weather addict when, as you’re slipping and sliding all over Storrow Drive you find yourself screaming, “WHERE THE #*^% IS JOHN WHEN YOU NEED HIM!!!!”

  103. im upgrading my road condition scale to a 3.5 for all areas but the cape for tonight. untreated roads will be dangerious and treated roads will be bad as well. my raod is slushed covered and probably has ice under it. Take it slow out there

  104. just went from worcester to southborough. 290 in worcester pretty much sucks. 495 and rte. 9 mostly just wet and slow.

  105. About a 1/2 to 3/4 inch in Marshfield, with some sleet mixed in at the very end.

    Was out in it with my daughter, it was fun !

    Ok, 8 days below normal, a few mini snow events. I’m done 🙂 C’mon Wednesday !!

  107. That third batch that TK spoke of looks to continue to remain mainly north of our area as far as organized snow. There could be scattered showers of snow/mix giving away to little or no additional accumulation.

  109. Analyzing the radar, most places are done with accumulating snow. Most places end up under an inch and most of our snow was over by 6:15. You could see it on the radar several hours ago that things weren’t going to verify and that most snow totals wouldn’t verify. We’re having the worst luck in terms of snowfall so far this winter 🙁

  110. The TV mets have Sunday as the day for the next potential snow event! 🙂

    TK, do you concur a post-Groundhog day storm instead as well?

    2. Most likely. One started talking it up a little today but everything is moving so quickly, it seems like it won’t be much. It would nice if we could get one nice one. Sigh!

    3. It’s the same energy I’m eyeing and posting as Saturday. Still believe late Saturday to early Sunday for whatever takes place, but still a long way to go.

  111. The way this winter is going your probably right with it going out to sea and precipitating over the fish.

  112. What happened to this third batch of snow/sleet that was supposed to hit Woburn/northern MA that TK spoke of?

    Btw, sleeting in Woonsocket 😀

    1. I think periods of snow,sleet and rain will continue through the night and as we get to sunrise temps will be going above freezing, I think a little additional coating to some minor ice accretion can be expected through am, I think tk will have an updated blog soon, just a hunch 🙂 hope all is well 🙂

  113. Thanks TK….you didn’t let me down with that snow band you promised. It did put down about 1/2 inch as you thought.

        1. The under 1 inch amounts are mostly in the area that I forecast them to be under 1 inch.

          Can’t speak for any of the TV guys.

  115. Turns out I don’t even need a 3rd band or anything else to verify the forecast amounts. They pretty much are already right there.

      1. It did materialize. It’s in southern NH now. Just not as extensive as the first 2.

        Just saw the snow reports out of NWS. The amounts have fallen within the expected range pretty much everywhere. Roads are improving around here now which is a good thing.

        The lack of precip also limits the chance of icing. Also a good thing.

        The mets did a good job with this system.

    2. It’s right here TK also. And looks booooo- tee-fulllll. I was just standing outside enjoying not only the view but the smell of winter and snow. Sure does make you feel as if you are on top of the world 🙂

  116. For the WHW forecast area, I had 1-2 for Middlesex, eastern Worcester, and Essex Counties. Most of the reports from these 2 counties fall right around 1 to 1.6 inches (though Essex has been quiet). I forecast 1 inch or less from Suffolk county southward. Boston has reported 0.8 inch. Plymouth has about 1/2 inch.

    1. Just shoveled walk and took out trash.
      Had about 3/4 inch on walk and 1 inch on Grass.

      Got doused with a heavy sleet/snow shower.
      It was weird with big sleet pellets coming down with 50% nice fluffy snow in between. 😀

      Despite what others might say, I think TK’s forecast was spot on. 😀

          1. I love it ….. Don’t know anyone but you, my SIL and me who’d be out without a coat. I’m smiling just thinking about how great this weather feels

    2. As advertised. Thank you and I’m sorry about the migraine but as OS says CONGRATULATIONS on quitting smoking. If you want encouragement just head here. Well done!

    3. Sorry to hear you weren’t feeling well Hadi and you were certainly missed here. Keep up the good work with the no smoking….I know first hand just how hard it is to quit.

  118. Thanks feeling much better tonight!! I have quit for 4 months and I feel great. The migraine was unreal I ended up at the ER bc I could not take it anymore.

    A nice 12+ storm would be helpful.

  119. It is beginning to freezing rain, got about half inch in wrentham, temp up to 30.6 degrees, all roads r clear around here per local police, not a big deal 🙂

  121. Steady light rain here too. I’m a bit concerned for morning commute. Is current thinking that it’ll end in time to treat roads? Many are bare and we are still holding around 27 here.

  124. TK,

    Just got in from shoveling. Deceving now…a lot more than I thought and it took my a while to move it. Your prediction for me was right on.

    1. Her also. Husband and SIL made decision to leave coating of snow on paved surfaces rather than have black ice. Daughter being pregnant makes me very nervous for falls.

  125. It’s only 28 degrees in Brighton. Looks like the freezing temps are going to hold on longer than thought.

    1. I was trying to say that earlier.

      It’s 27 in Woburn. We have a mix of snow and snow grains falling at the moment. Mixed with sleet for a little while. Roads have re-whitened and are slick all over again.

    2. I believe those temps should stay below freezing overnight through sunrise then slowly warming into the mid-upper 30’s for the afternoon. I would say considering there is a warm front nearby, very unusual for Boston to experience this. Most times the warm air would have long since busted through by now.

  128. 29.8 in North Attleboro freezing rain, 29.4 in wrentham Freezing rain both about got a half inch 🙂 eyes on next Sunday 🙂

    1. Well I’m happy someone gets the jackpot. Is it a bit sad when I think 3 inches is the jackpot. Enjoy Scott and hope you get a whole lot more 🙂

  131. Exit 34 in Westford on 495 shut down due to accidents and numerous spin-outs according to Matt Noyes. I guess the existing salt on the roads wasn’t enough to keep them just wet. 😉

    1. No doubt we will be hearing about more incidents during the 11 o’clock news. I guess the lesson for crews is to keep salting no matter how much was already on the roads days before. Friday night on my way home from work the cab driver still had to slow down in spite of tons of salt already on the street.

      1. As most said last night the existing salt was either melted or blown away. Useless in any case. I am still worried about morning commute

  132. Thought I was going home, back at work. Just had a significant sleet storm move through, all is covered. Looks like I’m here for the night.

        1. I think many of us said its hard to believe a few inches is an event. And it is. And a good portion I believe was in jest You are absolutely correct that TK didn’t.

  134. Logan is now finally ahead of last year’s total snowfall to date…8.3″ vs. 7.8″. 🙂

    Of course it could still go higher with any additional snow/sleet overnight.

    *9.0″ = 1936-37
    *107.6″ = 1995-96

    2. I think the 9 inches for the least snowiest winter on record will stand. I think I am going to be way off on my prediction of 37.4 inches for Boston this winter. I am thinking somewhere in the 15-25 inch range.

  135. I am somewhat surprised though that a chemical has yet to be invented that works as well (if not better) than salt and is still safe for the environment.

  136. The problem with the roads are the pavement temps. Out in Worc. Area, as of 6:20, they were around 19°. The roads are freezing from the bottom up. Makes for a tough situation if the crews are not scraping off the snow and just trying to melt it with salt.

    1. Nice! I saw this the other day. Amazing. It wouldn’t be hard for something prehistoric to still be thriving down in the depths of the ocean.

      1. who knows what lives down there. people still think big foot is around and lochness monster. lochness monster has a better chance of actually being true do to the ocean depths

  139. The precipitation event has behaved very much as advertised. Cold pavements and air making for slick conditions. Snow amounts may have come in a little lower than forecast in parts of the region, but you’re talking about a few hundreths of an inch in melted precipitation being the result of that.

    I think many people worry too much about actual snow amounts, when 1/2 inch to an inch here and there really doesn’t make much difference in impact in many cases. A system like this one isn’t so much about snow amounts, but timing of precipitation and impact on roads, etc.

    1. Agreed TK…I didn’t like the newscasters calling this event a “storm” which probably only scares some people unecessarily. It seems lately every time any kind of accumulating snow is considered a STORM! by these TV news departments regardless of the timing.

    2. TK I agree. It would have been non news except the timing at rush hour and icing potential gave it legs. I’m happy the icing held until most were home. As far as how it was forecast, if you look at what it was (1-2) and what was forecast (1-3), well that pretty much is a given.

  141. north billerica train station : light snow /freezing drizzle
    northwest billerica : light snow fog 24
    nuttings lake :freezing drizzle/fog 28
    center: freezing drizzle 30
    my house (pinehurst) sleet/freezing drizzle 26
    east billerica :freezing drizzle /fog 24
    last reports from my friends

  143. Just trying to make a few points. No ‘shoving anything in faces’ etc. I don’t do that, except in a joking manner sometimes.

    Thanks everybody for reading and sharing your comments and opinions. Some of us may disagree on how things go but we’re all friends here which is the most important thing.

    Stay safe everybody!

    I am working on a blog update now but it may not get posted til a bit after midnight in which case most of you will find it in the morning.

  144. Half inch in North Attleboro and three quarters of an inch in wrentham, Boston ended up with about an inch, temps r ever so slightly rising maybe a degree every 2-3 hrs, anyways have a good night and looking forward to what the models say tommorrow as I think alot more details will be told, temp 30.5 in Wrentham, night 🙂

    2. That’s a classic noreaster O.S.

      Troubles me that it’s showing it so early.

      G.H.D. starting to show up again a little.

      I’m quite jaded now so it’ll be a tough sell until it’s going through my snowblower.

  146. This should be an interesting 24 hrs. Surface winds are temporarily light north, with snowcover and chilly temps, it’ll be cool today and yet, its in the mid 50s in Chicago and in the mid 60s in St. Louis. Again, interesting to watch where the warm air surges into versus where it struggles to scour out all of the chill.

  147. For those interested in following the southern hemisphere tropics, there is a strong hurricane(typhoon ?) just east of Madagascar. I think that landmass takes big hits from tropical cyclones.

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