A Slip-Up, Then A Trip Up

151 Comments

7:25AM

First a slippery morning today as temperatures have stayed below freezing in most areas of southeastern New England except Cape Cod and the Islands where it has made it into the middle 30s with a few areas of spotty light rain and drizzle there. Elsewhere, spotty light snow, frozen drizzle (tiny ice pellets) and freezing drizzle (liquid drizzle freezing on surfaces) has been occurring and will continue through dawn. This will continue to make untreated surfaces slippery, so use caution if outside into the mid morning hours. By late morning onward, temperatures in most locations should rise above freezing, though they may stay close to the freezing mark over some interior valleys. Precipitation will be over in all locations though by the middle of the morning and the balance of the day will be precipitation-free. However, as the warm front responsible for the unsettled weather finally begins a push northward, some additional light rain/drizzle may develop Tuesday evening, and there may be a few pockets of freezing rain/drizzle over interior valleys. But finally the warm air will win out, and the temperature will take a trip up – all the way into the 50s to around 60 by Wednesday. A band of rain showers and possible thunderstorms will mark the end of the very brief warm up Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning from west to east across the region, as the first of 2 cold fronts moves through. Windy and drier weather will arrive during the day Thursday but it will not get too cold right away. A sharper cold front will arrive Thursday night or Friday morning and introduce a shot of much colder weather for the end of the week. I’m still watching the weekend period to see if any additional storminess forms nearby, bringing some snow.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THROUGH MID MORNING: Overcast with spotty  light snow, frozen drizzle, and freezing drizzle except liquid drizzle/very light rain Cape Cod & the Islands. Cloudy thereafter. Temperatures 30-35. Wind light variable.

LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON: Cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind light E-SE.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain and drizzle with some freezing rain/drizzle possible far northwest of  Boston. Lows 32-38 early then temperatures rising into the 40s overnight. Wind light SE shifting to S and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 55-60. Wind SSW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a band of rain showers and possible thunderstorms moving across the region west to east. Some heavy rain possible. Lows 50-55. Wind SW 15-25 MPH gusting 35-50 MPH shifting to W overnight.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Rain showers possible in southeastern MA in the morning. Temperatures falling slowly through the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM snow. Low 18. High 28.

SUNDAY: AM snow. PM clearing. Low 18. High 28.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 32.

151 thoughts on “A Slip-Up, Then A Trip Up”

  1. Thanks TK, I’m curious to your thoughts on this:
    I’ve been watching the NAM runs of late and it seems as though it wants it to snow on the back edge of the cold front on Thursday. I know this model in particular seems to overstate precip on the back end, but it has a decent amount of precip leftover after both the surface and mid-level temps drop below the 540 line. Here’s a quick link to the 6z on the nam. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&cycle=06&image=nam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_057_1000_500_thick.gif
    06z GFS also shows a monster storm for next wed
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_183_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    1. Actually, one has to be careful with that. That precip painted on that chart
      is typically for the past 6 hours, therefore, it doesn’t necessarily mean that
      is what is falling for the time the chart is designated. I checked the NAM
      snow fall map and it is indicating ZILCH for that time frame.

      To check the NAM and GFS snowfall you can go to this site:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

      So if you double check those maps with the precipitation chart, you will
      see whether or not snow is expected. 😀

  2. Thank you TK

    What a mess in Australia – in addition to all else, now they are experiencing severe flooding and and I saw some pictures of 10 feet of sea foam.

    1. Saw that on WBZ this morning. What a mess! Joe J. had funny name for it, but can’t remember what it was 🙂

      1. Did you see the video of the car driving out of the sea foam? People were standing right in front of it and didn’t even know the car was there until it emerged. Eerie sight.

  3. We ended up with just over 3″ of fluffy snow in Groveland, MA from last nights event and it was 24.6 degrees this morning at 6am

  4. Good morning all.

    Woke up to 28 degrees and was somewhat surprised as at 11 PM Todd clearly stated that temperatures would rise above freezing in Boston. Oh well.

    Shoveled walk again this morning removing 1/8-1/4 inch of sleet, or so I thought.
    Got to the car and saw a glaze on all of the side windows. Took forever to scrape
    that off. Probably close to 1/10 inch of glaze and another 1/4 to 1/2 inch of crap on
    the rest of the car.

    Car thermometer was reading 27 on the way to work.

    Have a great day all.

  5. Still at work from 7am yesterday morning. What a tough storm, it just did not want to go away here in Boston where I work. I have never seen sleet/ice. Come down the way I saw it come down last night. It was after that sleet storm we needed the plows.

  6. Looking at the models for 2/2 and 2/6. All over the place.
    I reserve any comments till later. Pointless right now.

    If 12Z GFS still has the storm for the 6th, then we’ll talk. 😀

    Enjoy.

  7. Fantasy storm for next week but fun to look at. The weekend I think will be snow showers that remind us it is still winter. I hope I am wrong with that.
    Of greater concern tomorrow is the possiblity of some heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and non severe thunderstorms.
    Thunderstorm Index at a 1 since should the thunderstorms fire they will not reach severe levels. I see there are high wind watches posted for some coastal areas and I would expected more areas of SNE to come under some sort of wind advisory as we head through the day.

  10. I might be wrong but it seems we’ve been in a parade-of-storm pattern for a while, even though we’ve missed or have only been grazed by them. Any timeframe when the pattern settles down?

      1. Reminds me of the 2010 winter when we got slammed but instead of misses we got hits….seems we have 1-2 threats a week, same as then.

          1. Yeah true. For me, last nights was the most I’ve gotten since the 8″ in December. Annoying too…I shoveled it last night only to wake up to more. I’d rather get one big lump that ends then constant stop-and-go snow.

  11. I’m going to keep talking smack about that storm on the GFS in the hopes that it gets mad enough to prove me wrong. Shhhhhhhhh…..don’t tell it about my true motive…

    😉

  13. This is what I have for snow totals to date this season – am I missing something?

    11/7/12 0.1
    11/8/12 0.3
    12/1/13 0.5
    12/25/13 0.2
    12/27/13 0.1
    12/29/13 2.2
    12/30/13 0.4
    1/16/13 3.20
    1/21/13 0.4
    1/25/13 0.1
    1/28/13 1.00
    Total 8.5

  16. The echoes in the southern Plains at 9am in the morning already look pretty impressive. Wonder if the areas east are going to see some further destabilizing sunshine thru early afternoon ?

    1. I feel your pain. I’ll be carpooling from Millis into Boston for that game, then back out again, THEN driving to Beverly and back to attend a friend’s Super Bowl party. Given all that, I’m expecting 2 feet of snow with a late changeover to freezing rain. And possibly some dense fog thrown in for good measure. 😉

  20. Terry Eliasen ‏@TerryWBZ

    With 1.0″ of snow last night Boston now at 8.5″ for the season, normal to date would be 22″…Worcester 1.5″ last night, 33.5″ season (+1″)

  21. Been below freezing in Boston since the Ravens won the AFC Championship. That’s a fairly long stretch. Won’t see that again this winter, at least I doubt it.

    1. hmmmm – is there a connection there 😕

      My son said he didn’t have any problems on roads in Boston but the car was literally frozen solid.

    1. Yes, but I’m fearful it goes mostly OTS.
      500MB and 300MB winds look good, however, 200MB winds are more
      from the West, thus propelling all the stuff underneath it more to the East. 😀

      Let’s see how off I am. probably a lot. 😀 😀

        1. However, that is still 6 days away, so anything can
          happen. We have a Watcher, that’s for sure!! 😀 😀

    1. Amen to that. Really close with plenty of time to move closer. Really juicy.
      That’s what we’ve been waiting for. 😀 Let’s see if the 12Z Euro and Canadian
      are on board.

  27. Hi Everyone,

    I got a question. Isn’t it better for any drought that we get snow opposed to rain? If the ground is frozen and it rains an 1″ plus tomorrow won’t it just run off and not sink in? So even though we record an 1″ of liquid it’s not correct because it justs not going be absorbed by the ground.

    1. Not sure it matters. I suppose it depends upon how the snow gets melted.

      Even with run off from the rain, it will eventually find its way to streams, rivers, ponds and lakes.

      I’m sure it makes a difference in farming with how much moisture gets into
      the soil itself. Not so much with our water supply.

      I’m sure Tk would have better input. 😀

    1. Here ya go:

      BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
      (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
      Last Updated: Jan 29 2013, 10:50 am EST
      Tue, 29 Jan 2013 10:50:00 -0500
      Temperature: 32.2 °F (0.1 °C)
      Dewpoint: 29.5 °F (-1.4 °C)
      Wind: North at 11.2 MPH (9.72 KT)
      Wind Chill: 23 F (-5 C)
      MSL Pressure: 1021.6 mb
      Water Temperature: 42.1 °F (5.6 °C)
      Wave Height: 0.6 m (1.97 ft)
      Dominant Period: 5 sec
      Average Period: 3.4 sec
      Mean Wave Direction: North (18 °)

  30. It looks like +NAO for the forseeable future. I know there have been those here including TK who have stated that it is still possible for snowstorms with a +NAO but I am still not particularly hopeful. 🙁

    I might be more convinced if someone here can show some snowstorms in the past during a +NAO phase…Thanks in advance.

    1. wow – GREAT links – thanks – they are now in my weather folder for review a bit later and for reference

        1. 1. February 17-18, 2003 27.5 inches
          2. February 6-7, 1978 27.1 inches
          3. February 24-27, 1969 26.3 inches
          4. March 31-April 1, 1997 25.4 inches
          5. January 22-23, 2005 22.5 inches
          6. January 20-21, 1978 21.4 inches
          7. March 3-5, 1960 19.8 inches
          8. February 16-17, 1958 19.4 inches
          9. February 8-10, 1994 18.7 inches
          10. January 7-8, 1996 18.2 inches
          10. December 20-22, 1975 18.2 inches
          10. December 26-27, 2010 18.2 inches

  37. ok…so when looking at Hadi’s research I see ten storms over 18″ in Worcester between 1958 and 1997. That’s one every 3.9 years.

    Looks like we are waaaaaaaay overdue for one over 18″………like 11 years overdue.

    Oversimplified?

    1. retrac, Worcester got over 20″ of snow with the 1/12/11 storm so perhaps you actually have to wait till 2015 for the next one 🙂

  40. 12z Euro does not agree with the GFS on the 2/6 storm potential, however it does have the NAO tanking in that time period and beyond which is a positive sign…

      1. Upon closer examination with the weather underground maps, it shows an initial storm passes to our south and OTS on Friday night/Saturday. However it does show a second weak storm moving up the coast with some snow on super bowl sunday. Tough to tell what it is showing for accumulations – the wunderground snow tool shows zilch but I have found that not to be accurate. It appears plenty cold enough for all snow.

  41. 12z GGEM has the Superbowl Sunday “storm” as well. So it looks like we actually have some model consensus between the GFS, Euro, and GGEM on a light snow event for Sunday. Probably good for a widespread 1-3″ or 2-4″ event but it bears watching – could be a bit more if it intensifies more rapidly.

  42. I hope it will be a post Super Bowl storm since my mom is flying back home from Aruba on Sunday.
    1.8 inches of snow yesterday that will go down the drain with the rainfall expected tomorrow. For an easy winter here in CT we have snow surpluses for both inland and the shore.

  44. even though people are to route for the side of their conferance. i totally just lost all my sympothy and do not give any respect to ray lewis and the other line backer. they both took steroids

    1. I was already rooting for San Fran in this game. The only thing I like about the Ravens is their name and their road uniform. 😉

  46. With this stubborn low level cold air persisted and 1-2 inch snow we had yesterday, are we still going to get mid and upper 50s along BOS-PVD corridor? Seems like cold air is pretty stubborn and it is only 34 in BOS right now…

  48. Luckily for the southern Plains, I guess the dynamics aloft (particularly the cold air aloft) have not quite caught up to the cold front, which looks like it has thus far tempered a true severe outbreak.

    I will say that I’m surprised there’s not some kind of thunderstorm warning out for just west of Chicago as it looks like there’s a nasty bow echo on the radar.

    1. Also, so many midwest tracking lows this winter that have so little snow on the northwest side of the track. Very, very strange.

  49. The cold did hang in there well today, as it should have.

    Yes, its been cold, the ground is frozen solid and there’s snow cover, but that warm air is going to charge in tomorrow.

    The warm air is already above us, west of us, south of us and with a decent low going west of us, it will win, however temporary its stay.

    A little snowfall on Super Bowl Sunday would be great !

  50. Temperatures will rise through the night and be in the low 40’s by sunrise, I think it snows a little on Sunday with most around 2 maybe 3 inches, be back later 🙂

    1. Great, more time away from the family. Getting old fast for me. Nights like last night take a toll on me. Luckily they let us leave early today, came home and took an hour nap, I’m beat. I’m still in aw after seeing that sleet come down the way it did. We had the property spotless, and thought the storm was done. Than it just kept going and going. Last night was the toughest storm to date that we dealt with this winter. Sometimes its the little storm’s that do that. So what is it looking like a few inches Sunday, any time frame.

      1. It’s still early in my opinion but a decent shot at a little snow Sunday, my best guess at this point would be 1-3 but again it’s early so don’t hold me to it just yet,

  53. Any thoughts on timing of the rain on Wednesday evening? My class gets out at around 8, and I have some walking to do to get to the train.

    Thanks!

      1. Temps r on the rise 33.7 for a while and up to 33.9, I’m thinking it will be around 40 deg at 6-7am

  54. Been busy and not around. Waiting for 0Z GFS.

    For fun here are some snow amounts from the 18Z GFS:

    For Sunday 2/3:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013012918&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=129

    2-3 inches

    For Feb 5/6:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013012918&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=180

    10-11 inches

    Only if, Eh? This is a number of runs, and yes it is 18Z. 06Z had a biggies, but 12Z backed off quite a bit, now the 18Z has a sizable storm. We’ll see about the 0Z run. 😀

    1. Another song came to mind………..”You may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one. …”

      Only, if is correct!

  56. What if I slip and then trip? 😉 hahaha

    I am looking forward to the weather tomorrow 🙂 And even the rain 🙂

  59. Lets hope the cold frontal rains dont dwindle down to a thin line that drops .25 in or less and that a widespread .5 in or more occur.

    Saw tornado warnings earlier this morning east of Nashville, TN. Must be horribly scary to sense that a tornado may be near by in the dark of night.

  60. Good morning!

    Updated blog!

    I have a medical test this morning (routine, nothing wrong) and will be unable to drive the rest of the day so I’ll be sitting in my den most of the remainder of the day and evening watching radar and checking models (basically weather-geeking from home).

    See you on the new blog around midday. 🙂

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