One Warmer One

7:22AM

We get a one-day-stand of warmer air today ahead of a strong cold front in southern New England. Too bad it isn’t one of those fair-weather days. A damp and foggy start in much of the region, no sunshine save for a few bonus breaks in the clouds this afternoon, and a ribbon of moderate to heavy rain showers and thunderstorms tonight will all be part of it. In addition, wind is going to become an issue later today through early Thursday with a strong southerly wind develop ahead of the front, shifting to west with its passage. A high wind watch has been posted for much of the area and has already been upgraded to a high wind warning for southeastern MA and RI. The showers and storms will be triggered by the cold front moving in from the west, which will also serve as a running board for an additional area of rain for eastern sections into Thursday morning. The cold air behind the front will not get in fast enough to cause any issues with rain turning to mix or snow. A secondary boundary coming through on Friday will bring some snow showers and the much colder air for the weekend into early next week. In addition, a couple more disturbances moving around the base of a low pressure trough returning to the Northeast will trigger the development of a couple more storms, which will bring snow chances to the region Saturday night & Sunday as well as Monday night & Tuesday (timing may change a little bit especially on the Tuesday event).

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog this morning. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers this afternoon. Highs in the 50s, may touch 60 in a few locations. Wind S under 10 MPH to start, increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by the end of the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers before 9PM then a more solid band of rain showers and possible thunderstorms moving west to east across the region during the remainder of the night. Some heavy rain is likely. Temperatures holding in the 50s. Wind S increasing to 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain lingering over eastern MA, eastern NH, and RI into mid morning otherwise a clearing trend west to east, reaching eastern areas in the afternoon. Temperatures falling into and through the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 18. High 29.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 18. High 29.

TUESDAY:  Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

236 thoughts on “One Warmer One”

  1. looks like 2 light snow events one saturday night through sunday night
    the other monday night and tuesday

  2. Thanks TK.
    Thanfully if we do get thunderstorms here they will be non severe unlike other parts of the country affected by severe weather with this storm system. With the gusty winds along with the rain I would not be surprised if there are some power outages.
    Looks like winter attempts a comeback late week into early next week with the chance for some very light snow events.

    1. Im not sure it left. The snow coming up will be the third week in a row with snow. If I’m right since October this will be like our 6th snow event. And before someone goes and says what is an event/ any amount of accumulation snow is an event. Were definitely in a snow pattern for sure. I do believe we get one or two biggies before were done. I’m figuring six more weeks and thing’s start changing drastically, this will take us to the third week in March. Can it snow after that, absolutely it can but to me the chances go down, way down.

      1. I agree there is a difference, 1 snowstorm and we’ve actually had 8 or 9 snow events, alot have been dustings though

  3. Thanks, Tk, and good luck with your test.

    Looks like an early taste of spring later today and tonight. Very chilly and damp right now. It would be nice if we got a few sunny breaks later on – if we do, I don’t think they will amount to much. Wild weather in the Mid-West and South – I think a little early for that.

  4. Good morning All.

    Many thanks TK and best of luck with your test this morning.
    Hope all is well.

    Waiting on the 12Z runs. The models have been a flip-flop-a-palooza.

    The GFS went from a significant coastal storm to a clipper to next to nothing.

    Not sure what to make of it all.

    Right now, doesn’t look like anything significant. Perhaps an inch or 2 both on
    Sunday and Tuesday give or take.

    Perhaps a surprise will develop. We will watch regardless. 😀

    Have a good one.

  5. NWS watch/warning map is very colorful this morning. Radar looks impressive too – precip. from north – south in one long line.

    1. In my opinion, no.

      See TK’s forecast and explanations above.

      First shot of colder air does not have a sharp enough drop off in temperature
      to cause a flash freeze. So with the active wind and drying air mass with only
      slowly falling temperatures, this situation is avoided.

  6. Two shots of snow. Will one of them materialize into a large coastal gale? The way this winter has been going, very unlikely. However, I like the fact that we seem to have something to discuss each week. Both events look light to perhaps moderate, but at the same time, the storms bomb out well east of our area before it’s able to throw significant snow back in new england. Let’s hope things change. There is plenty of time. TK has been calling for a groundhog day storm for a while now so let’s see how it plays out.

  7. From NWS at Taunton:

    SUN…SHORT WAVE TROF WITH BAGGINESS IN SFC PRES FIELD DEPICTED BY
    MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS A TAD MORE QPF…THE ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS A SOMEWHAT SHARPER SHORT WAVE TROF WITH A NEGATIVE TILT HINT.

    What does this mean?

    1. “Bagginess” 😀

      I have NEVER seen that in a meteorological context before.

      Is this to mean some sort of elongated surface low????

      I like the Negative Tilt hint from the Euro. Hmmm…. 😀

      1. Surely the negative tilt hint points to greater amplification allowing for coastal development earlier than progged. Hmmmm.

  8. The cold air dome was tenacious. I don’t think it ever got above 33 in Boston (morning forecast was for 39) yesterday, and the day before I think 29 was the high (morning forecast was 34). Today appears to shape up similarly as it’s 45 right now. Could it get to the upper 50s? Sure, but I’m not counting on it. Once the cold front moves in tomorrow night, things get a little interesting the coming week or so. Not nearly as cold as it was. But, some decent snow chances coming our way. Hadi and others may be proven right all along: February could indeed turn out to be our snowiest and most wintry month.

  9. Thanks TK and good luck with your test. Looking forward to your analysis of the models this afternoon. Can you please manipulate the models to show a “big daddy” storm? We so deserve it after these little nuisance “events”.

        1. Yes,
          But this is the DGEX and it’s an extension of the NAM.
          We already don’t like the NAM at 84 hours, this thing
          takes the NAM and extends it to 192 hours. 😀

          And on top of that, it is a 06Z run without complete
          data.

          OH well. That’s why I put it in the For What It’s Worth Department.

          However, it still shows what “could” happen. 😀

  10. Quick Western Europe update: The thaw came in with a vengeance 4-5 days ago. Temps went from the 20s to 45-50 and have stayed that way. In fact, temps will be above normal the coming week or so. Lots of light rain and wind, as those Lows that passed south of us pick up speed and sail across the Northern Atlantic at ferocious speeds, becoming mainly wind storms (gales) with spitting rain. There may be a cool down in a week’s time, but only a few nighttime frosts and a few wintry mix events as the wind shifts to a North/Northwesterly before reverting to its Southwesterly norm. My guess is their winter has pretty much come and gone. The first spring flowers usually pop up in Holland in late February everywhere: snow drops, crocus flowers.

    1. I have a questions for you. My son has had a double ear infection for 3 weeks. He has been on 4 different medications with no ease in his discomfort. He has had a temperature which continued to rise and fall. Highest temp was 104.5 under arm and 103.7 the other way. His doctor has set up an appointment for Mass Eye and Ear tomorrow. What could be causing this? I heard someone mention ear tubes? What is involved with that? We are feeling very defeated at the moment. Between the two kids we have been up for 2 hours in the middle of the night for the last 3 weeks.

      1. Coastal,

        I’m Sure Alisonarod will answer your questions on this.

        I can tell you that both of our children had this exact same
        problem as youngsters and both of them required tubes
        in both ears to alleviate the infections (Otitis media).
        The tubes were a pain in the butt to deal with when washing their hair and no swimming allowed without special ear plugs, but other than that, the procedure worked and there were no
        complications.

        There is little danger at all, other than the usual Anesthesia.

        Best of luck.

        1. Hi Coastal,

          Without examining your lil one it’s difficult to assess. Did he have a middle ear infection as in (otitis media)? Was it an outer ear infection as in (otitis externa)? I would want to make sure there are no other underlying causes. Let me know the names of all the antibiotics that he has been on and I will see if there is a better alternative. If your son has had only a couple of ear infections over a long period of time, ear tubes won’t be necessary. However, if he continues to get ear infections offer, a myringotomy (ear tubes) would be indicated. The issue with children as that the inner ear tubes anatomy is typically horizontal, thus not allowing for fluid to drain properly and resulting in frequent infections. As the child grows into an adult, the inner ear canal becomes more vertical, promoting better drainage and resulting in far fewer infections. This is why adults don’t ‘often’ can ear infections–at least not as often as children. So, simply put, it’s your child’s anatomy that causes the frequent infections. The solution to this problem would indeed be ear tubes to promote better drainage. The procedure is quick and simple although he will be placed under general anesthesia. The tubes will then fall out on their own after about a year or so and infections will become much less frequent. If any other questions, please don’t hesitate to ask. I hope he feels better.

          1. I do not have a list of the medicine he has received. At work now. He is 1 1/2 yo and has had 3 ear infections already. My daughter who is 2 1/2 has had one.

            1. I’ll have to add my two cents – nothing new. I had regular ear infections – all three of my kids did as well. Our son, however, went from amox to keflex (I seem to remember) with his first and second and then had tubes (Children’s) He continued to have ear infections but they would at least have an end. Our youngest had something like 20 ear infections before she was one – first at 10 days – but never had tubes b/c antibiotics cleared them. Both eventually were given antibiotics prophylactically.

          2. My son had the tubes at 18 months and was blowing bubbles out of one of his ears in the pool at four – they didn’t seem to want to fall out and he thought he was a hoot.

        1. Yes Vicki. Some tubes can take a few years to fall out. That is actually a good thing. The longer the tubes remain in the inner ear, the better as it will continue to promote drainage. In most cases, tubes do the trick, however, they do not prevent ear infections indefinitely. Ear infections still can occur but much less frequent and much less intense. Hope this helps Coastal!

      2. your son could also have “water wax” when you have deep ear canals like myself water gets stuck in the ear, the water mixes in with the wax and builds up and have a crackling sound when you push under the ear or sneeze or cough. sometimes leading to infection beleive me i had one it killed for a month and i had a fever. Hint why i use clear ear plugs when im going to go under water or taking a shower soap getting into the ear also might of caused it.

  11. NWS from Upton NY about Sunday snow event.
    A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
    NIGHT WITH SUPPORT ALOFT GIVEN BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
    MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS WILL YIELD MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW
    SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH COULD YIELD SOME LIGHT
    SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TOTAL ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES.

      1. Right now and this could change since its Wednesday but it has the feel right now of a 1-3 inch snow event maybe
        2-4 for Super Bowl Sunday. Hopefully we get something.

    1. Good. Give us your take on Sundays event. Looks plowable right now. Feel better. Any timing on the storm as well would be great so I can start
      Planning my short weekend, damn.

    2. Relax TK – the only good part of procedures is that you feel so relaxed afterwards —– that and you must be waited on 😉

        1. Much of the same. As per usual, both storms will coat us with snow. It’s the theme of the winter. Ugh!

          1. Rain Coast?? Have to disagree Charlie. I’m loving the fact that’s a long duration event. This one has HUGE potential. It’s amazing to only pick up 1-3 inches out of this. Perhaps it’s intermittent very light snow that the model is depicting. With a slow moving storm, this one could get exciting.

        1. Also the NAO forecasts for later next week are starting to trend negative, which would support a slower mover.

  12. Yes as noted above, current guidance points to 2 disorganized systems struggling to get their acts together when they are nearby. I don’t think p-type will be much of an issue. Cold enough for snow. But plowable vs. just brushable-treatable is a question. I’ll venture to say most areas Sunday come in under 3 inches (early unofficial call).

    1. Thank you for your input.

      Perhaps the 12Z Euro sees things a bit differently? Probably not. We’ll see.

  13. It is a coat-storm winter for sure.

    I still say we have one biggie waiting in the wings, when things come together just right. 🙂

  14. Quite a disparity driving around my area this morning. The cold air at the surface has been extremely difficult to scour out in certain areas. It was 39 with dense fog and snowcover when I left my house in Coventry, CT this morning, then warmed to 50 by the time I drove 9 miles west to work in Manchester. Then I drive north 15 miles for a mtg near Bradley airport and the temp dropped to 35 with dense fog and snow cover. Now I see BDL has just warmed 15 degrees in the past 2 hours and is up to 50.

    The cold air has been very difficult to dislodge, but once those south winds mix down to the surface, boy it sure warms up in a hurry.

  15. Sorry made a comment above that said rain coast snow inland was not for Sun, it was for the following storm

  16. Some interesting observations this hour:

    62 degrees in Massena, NY up near the Canadian border!
    40 degrees atop Mt Washington with south winds gusting to 101 mph.

    Those are the wind speeds that are above usat 6000 ft right now and it’s only going to increase as the day progresses. Would not be surprised to see some power outages later as some of those strong winds mix down to the surface in heavy rain or T-storms.

    1. Wow – that’s some breeze!!

      Did someone say Power Outages……………you have my undivided attention. Framingham?

      1. If you are “lucky” 🙂
        What is your elevation? The higher up you are, the more wild it is going to be later.

    2. I should add that Mt Washington has already broken the record high for today (previous record high was 38 set in 1947) and the temp is still climbing.

  17. Coastal, we never had the good fortune of having children so I cannot give any advice. But my thoughts are with you and your family.

  18. High Wind Warnings up for a good chunk of SNE. If you are in an area that typically loses power with high winds I would be ready for it.

    1. usually never loose power but alot of crap comes up from the marshland behind my house. all ready a small breeze forming

  19. Hi Hadi,

    Thanks for the NAO history link from yesterday! I have just now been able to read posts let alone post anything since I have been busy with work. In the future I will try not to get too discouraged at a +NAO during the winter months, but it’s not going to be easy. 😀

    If I am not mistaken, doesn’t a -NAO in the summer means HHH?…UGH! 🙁

    1. Hi Philip…. I remember reading a blog by Joe Lundberg on AccuWeather and he was saying a negative NAO in the summer
      translates to a lot of heat in the east. An opposite of the winter when in a setup like that we have colder and if the storm track
      in the right spot big time snows.

  20. Was just out. My car thermometer was reading 57. Pretty nice. Not too windy yet.

    btw, 12Z Euro looks a bit interesting for This Sunday. Still waiting for Wundermap
    to see where it goes after 99 Hours. 500MB chart is impressive, most especially
    when compared to the GFS 500MB chart for the same time period. 😀

    Still don’t like 200MB winds, which tells me that it will probably pass just a wee
    bit outside, then absolutely blow up towards the Maritimes. 😀

    1. 15Z on Sunday, has a low about 50-100 mile due East of Viginia Beach, VA.
      500MB winds are SSW and strong. With lousy 200MB winds (WSW), I fear
      it passes just a little bit too far East.

  21. some wind once and a while but the fog is still around town. expecially the center down to nutings lake( mainly western sections.

  22. I think rain begins in western sections around 10-11pm and in Boston right about midnight, 57.7 degrees

  23. Not much cooking on the 12z Euro. The Sunday storm looks more amplified, but also too far out to sea to do anything more than brush us. Bears watching though as it is a close call.

    Tuesday storm looks weak as well. And to add salt to the wound, the NAO forecast which had been looking more negative next week is now projected to be more or less neutral after 2/4.

    1. Unfortunately both storms look to coat us at best. I don’t even get excited anymore until there is positive consistency amongst the models to indicate significant snow. It’s just the way the winter is going.

  24. The wind gusts here are ferocious. I dont care what the Marshfield ob says, the top floor in our school shook on one gust and on the way home at a red light, my car was shaking. I’m guessing a few gusts to or over 40.

    While I dont want to see the severe weather, this warm air is wonderful. Just love being able to go outside without a jacket and I dont get instantly cold, etc.

    I only hope for a few mild days, I’d be happy with 45F to 50F during school break in two and a half weeks.

          1. It is….. I have noticed that 6:45am is the time, in that, if you try to get to rte 3 by then, its pretty quick up rte 139. After that time, then from Roche Bros to exit 12 can take some time just to get to rte 3.

  25. Glimpses of sun in Sudbury w/breaking clouds. Wind started gusting about 1/2 hr. ago. Winds gusting to approx. 25 mph. This morning our backyard, surrounded by trees was covered w/snow. Now it’s totally bare, save for the scattered snowbanks. I guess rain later will take care of that.

  26. Upper 50s indeed. I was wrong again. If anyone relies on my forecasting they’d be in lots of trouble. TK, you were right again about the warm air winning out big time. I think 60 is possible in places that see the sun.

  27. Man we seem to get a lot of these high wind events this year…is it me or are there more than usual? Hate the wind…feels likem my house is going to uproot from the foundation. That and my neighbors leaves…damn…I just cleaned them a few days ago.

  28. Nope…the darn wind always blows toward my house. I don’t mind the lawn at this point…it’s my driveway. With rain coming I need my exterior garage door grate free of debris to channel out the water or it comes in the garage. This darn wind keep pulling all the leaves over it. I can’t fight the battle unless I stay out there all night and remove leaves. Sucks to know I am getting water.

    1. my back yard gets slammed with wind,rain, stuff comming up from the marshland etc. Including the smell in early spring sometimes wind carries thid disgusting smell into the back yar.

              1. I you had a riding mower that picked them up, you could pretend you we’re being a good neighbor and take a run through their yard when they are not home 🙂

  29. 18Z GFS, 500mb chart has significantly MORE digging than on the 12Z Run for Sunday.
    Don’t know how it will translate for the event. 😀

        1. Neither event plowable unfortunately…the usual salt should probably do. By my mental count Boston has only needed to plow streets once so far this winter, and even that only met the “bare” requirements…LOL. 😉

          1. Actually thats wrong. They were plowing Monday night in the Longwood medical area. That sleet that came in did a nice little job. We did not need heavy equipment until after that as well. We were heading home around 9:00 and than bang that front came roaring in. We were actually in our vehicles and had to turn around.

            1. John I would have to say they may plow directly around the hospitals for obvious reasons but since that is a minuscule part of the state it isn’t a plowable event except for at children’s. my son said they treated the roads on the Brighton Brookline line but not a plow to be found. None here either None in wellesley, Weston, Uxbridge.

              1. You make it seem like I’m making it up. The city of Boston was plowing. After that heavy bout of sleet came in everything was covered, the roads were all slop. In Brookline were we also have property it was the same thing. Like I said before I have never seen sleet come down like that, it was downpouring sleet/ snow. Just reporting the facts.

                1. John of you read I said it is understandable that you plow around the hospitals. That would indicate I not only didnt question it but understood why. I can tell you that my son said no plows were out in Brighton which is Boston nor between where he works – museum of science area – and his home – Cleveland circle. He said the roads were well treated and passable but the cars were frozen solid. Ill repeat – there has to be treatment around the hospitals so I get that

                2. John my son is responsible for moving an average of 200 people around both in and out of Boston every day. That’s why I asked him how it went. One of the key ingredients for him is the road conditions.

                1. What were they plowing in Boston, do they not salt? Boston didn’t even get an inch of snow, anyways just think now all the money wasted and now it’s all gone, I do feel like they can revamp the plowing and salting rules bc not saying u John but there needs to be some regulations, I was talking to a guy that sands rt 44 in Middleboro and he told me they had him sitting there for 4 hrs doing nothing,, he was upset, then told him after 4 hrs of sitting on side of road to just go home they were all set, granted he says he gets paid but said there getting 60 bucks an hr from state, u figure it out

          2. My son said the exact same thing Philip when I asked. He hasn’t had any trouble on the roads either and he’s out for work and play from 6 am until heaven knows what time :). Or he’s out running.

  30. Logan was 1.8 and Worcester 2.0 degrees above normal for the month going into today. Looks like we will still end the month above normal.

  31. And of course, on the climate side, a classic double high whammy is setting up for midnight tonight. If its 60 ish around midnight, thats the high for today and tomorrow.

    I’m kind of glad tomorrow’s the last day of January. Its been a quick month, but weatherwise, its been a looooooooooong month. Above normal, then freezing cold, barely any precip. Blah……….

    Give me one large Feb snowstorm, some spring preview days and the quickly returning light of February, and I can get some energy back that I tend to lack this time of mid-winter.

    1. north billerica station: 56f, 10mph
      east billerica 58f ,13mph
      north west billerica55f 10mph
      nuttings lake 60f 18mph
      center 61f 20mph
      pinehurst ( my house) 58f, winds 15mph measured a gust of 31
      so 10-20mph with gusts upto 38mph winds around my hill town of billerica and it hit 60 for the first time since november.. I just went out its actually nice out. the wind is a warm wind and does not really create wind chill

      1. Absolutely Vicki. You better pray it is after the boys go to sleep though because losing power for them is fun for about two and a half minutes and then they are bored. 🙂

  32. Just talked to my SIL in Atlanta. She said there is still a line southwest of her with tornado warnings attached. Maybe heading to SC. It’s 56 and 58 here. :). They are expecting a big temp drop to below freezing.

      1. I hope they are okay Vicki. It’s exciting to us but I’m sure very scary for the folks down there.

  33. I wonder, if the rain holds off, if it could get towards 62 or 63F at Logan around midnight before it rains and/or cools off.

    1. If my phone is right its 61 here in Pembroke, the wind is roaring and not to really get cranking till around 2am.

  34. Alisonarod,

    Quick question…well opinion. We have some fevers going around the house (101-103 degrees). My wife is all about the Tylenol to control the temps. My thought is unless they are uncomfortable, forgo the Tylenol and let the body do it’s thing. That is, Tylenol works against what the body want to do by lowering the temperature. I assume there is no right or wrong here…

    1. I’m not Alisonarod but asked my daughter. Grandson just got over bronchitis and sinus infection. She said a child is considered to have a fever over 100.4. Over that her pediatrician recommends Tylenol or Motrin. She prefers Advil. But she said every parent knows best. Her son can have a fever and be acting fine so she is less apt to treat. If he is acting sick or lethargic, she will treat.

      1. Pretty much daughter seems to be saying what you are. Am keeping you all in my thoughts. It’s a tough winter

  35. I was referring to what the city of Boston and the town of Brookline were out doing. We dont seem to agree on plowing, even though it is in my line of work. I could care less what the city of Boston does as it has no bearing on us. I guess we can agree to disagree but this is fact. As I said befoe the contractors have a job that they were hired to do. If its not done right lives could be at stake.

    1. John that’s what I said. We are saying the same thing You and the contractors were plowing around your areas and I get the contractors are doing what they are hired to do and totally agree with the why they are. It is just not what is happening in the majority of the city….city plows not contractors. Which brings us back to my request that we define plowable event. To me it is far too lose a term to apply to a storm

      1. There’s alot of plow truck operators not u John but they screw the state, I see it with my own eyes and have talked to actually plow drivers

        1. Charlie the city was plowing all the slop that fell after nine when that sleet came through.everything was freezing on contact. Brookline and around us had 1.5 to two inches of frozen snow/ sleet. It was a very tough storm to work. Ice is bad. You can only salt so much.

            1. I was just stating what the city of Boston was doing. The streets were slop and it was freezing. I kind of feel like you guys don’t believe me, but I swear its the truth. Before 9:00pm all I saw was salting including us. We had the equipment out but did not need it. It was after 9:00 that things got ugly. The storm sucked we were out all night cleaning it up. Before 9:00 we had everything salted and spotless and did not again need equipment till after that front came through. I think tk called it the third front.

                1. It is, whatever. I’m sick of explaining something that people don’t even do here. Well there is two others here that do. Have a good night all. Let’s hope the models agree on some Sunday snow.

  36. Pouring here now. Looks like we have a separate piece of activity from sw to ne from se CT to the north shore of MA.

    TK, is this with the low level jet?

      1. I love happy days. Heyyyyyy. I’m also a sap for leave it to beaver and facts of life and MASH is an all time favorite.

  37. Low level jet is helping fire shower lines that mix the stronger gusts down. It’s almost like a decaying tropical cyclone behaves.

  38. Winds have relaxed back to the highest in last hr is 21mph, it has started raining in western ct,ma, and NYC, I thought it would have been a little earlier but appears around midnight is when it starts, hope all is well, goodnight, Sunday looks minor thinking 1-3 inches again still early 🙂

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