Big Blow Then Down We Go

278 Comments

11:28PM

From the National Weather Service: High Wind Warning for the entirety of southeastern New England through mid morning Thursday. Wind gusts of 45 to 65 MPH may result in some damage and power outages. Winds will be coming from the south to southwest through about dawn Thursday, then southwest to west during the day Thursday. Strongest wind gusts will occur in coastal areas and higher elevations.

Along with strong winds, showers and possible thunderstorms will be increasing across the region overnight through early Thursday morning, with some downpours possible.

All of this will be the result of a strong cold front moving west to east across the region. This front separates Spring-like air over the East Coast from advancing very cold air from Canada and the north central US. The wet weather will be moving out and clearing moving in from the west Thursday afternoon as temperatures fall, but a secondary boundary crossing the region from northwest to southeast on Friday will introduce even colder air, which will be hanging around into next week. A series of disturbances will bring some snow chances to the region as well.

Sorting it out with the forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Showers becoming more numerous moving southwest to northeast. Chance of thunderstorms after 3AM. Some heavy downpours. Temperatures holding near 60 then falling into the 50s. Wind S to SW 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH except 25-35 MPH with gusts 45-65 MPH higher elevations and coastal areas. Isolated wind gusts to 70 MPH possible especially South Coast and highest elevations.

THURSDAY: Showers and thunderstorms ending west to east in the morning followed by clearing west to east in the afternoon. Temperatures falling into the 40s. Wind SW to W 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH in the morning, gradually slackening during the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible mostly west of Boston. Lows 22-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Wind chill in the teens.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible especially north and west of Boston. Highs 33-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 14. High 28.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 28.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 12. High 30.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 30.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 27.

278 thoughts on “Big Blow Then Down We Go”

    1. Been feeling this possibility for some time now. Pegged it as something to watch in the Friday-Sunday period several days ago because it’s impossible to get specific that far out. Now it’s starting to come into focus a bit more.

    2. Over the next 8-10 days, there are a number of snow chances. As for this Sunday, it seems like the snow possibility is 1) looking a little more real and 2) a little more intense. But we live in NE so who knows.

  2. Harvey mentioned at 11 that he thought we were going to get more than a light snow on Sunday, too. It’s currently 1:20am and temps have risen 3 degrees since midnight – from 56 to the current 59. Strongly thinking of opening my window – it felt downright tropical all day! TK, in your forecast, you mentioned the possibility of isolated snow showers tonight and Friday night. Do you think they might happen in the Westford/Chelmsford area? Although I enjoyed today, I do love snow 😀

    1. We’ll be looking for a few “fingers” of snow showers that stream this way from the Great Lakes. To be honest, I’m not sure if they will survive over the mountains, but sometimes in the cold air advection with strong west winds, a few do indeed make it, so I put the isolated in the forecast. I think this can happen any time from about 9PM Thursday night right through Friday evening. Most places will see nothing, but maybe you’ll get lucky up in that area and see some flakes flying about in the chilly wind.

      We’re alike in the fact that we both enjoy the weather of Wednesday and the snow. I love the contrast, and the change.

      As much as I love snow, I don’t need constant cold and lots of big snowstorms to make me happy. Sure I love them too, but I just like watching all the things happen and how they change.

      1. Me too – I’m too excited listening to the wind and rain, and watching the radar to sleep! I opened my window – made it to 60 here in Chelmsville 🙂

  3. Thank you TK

    I’ve been awake since 2:00ish listening to the wind. It has the pulsing locomotive sound of TS winds. Not as strong but same feeling. I can ony imagine what it’s like near the coast. Some rain is just starting – at least rain I can hear

  4. I like what I’m seeing on the 06z gfs….A snowstorm for sunday night into monday? 06z gfs is looking juicier at 90hrs entire run not complete yet.

  7. Cant we just have rain within a mini hurricane to go with it? House feels like it is being torn apart.

  9. Yeah its definitely windier than Sandy. We have had some pretty strong gusts tonight. Not much rain though which we desperately need. Hopefully we get some snow on sunday. I have got to try to get back to bed. Been up since 1am. Going to be a long day. Catch up with everyone later this morning.

  12. Latest Blue Hill ob : South wind at 45 knots, gusting to 60 with a max gust at 67 knots.

    I think its multiply by 1.1 to get miles per hour. Healthy tropical storm force, with an occasional gust to hurricane force.

    1. Ignoring Blue Hill, which is elevated, comparing Cape Cods winds to other areas winds, they seem a bit less intense. I wonder if thats because the Cape is a bit cooler with S winds off of the ocean and thus, a bit more stable, allowing for less mixing.

  13. On my way into work this morning and saw two vans get blown into my lane. I drive a Tundra and was getting tossed around. I saw several tree’s down in Hanover and Rockland. Our power went out between 1:30 and 2:00am. I know this because my kids were both up! Finally got back to sleep then my alarm clock went off at 4am and the power was still out so I hit snooze. Seven minutes later when the alarm went off, we had power.

  15. Little sleep the past few nights as kids are sick…finally mostly slept through the night last night but wind and rain kept me up. Need sleep…

        1. Hope you and your wife stay well and hope your daughter is better. Wow – there is a lot of stuff going on around! I guess it’s the time of yr.

      2. Hope you and your wife stay well, Tom! I take it your kids have been sick? If so, hope they are better soon.

    2. Hope your kids get better soon, WeatherWiz. Hope you and your wife stay well and hope you can catch up on your sleep!

  16. Providence, RI at +2.2 ft and Fall River, MA at +1.8 ft storm surge, with tide coming in. Looks like high tide is maybe 3 hrs away.

  18. We may have s decent storm on Sunday. First shot at a sizable storm, I’ll use the word sizable instead of plowable, lol.

  21. I saw that North exciting.

    Now for Sunday it’s a GFS vs. euro right now as the 00z and 6z GFS are much closer vs. 00z euro.

    1. Big opportunity hadi. Lets see if we can get a good one here. Not the best day for a storm on superbowl Sunday. Booze, driving and snow don’t mix. That is for those stupid enough to drive.

    2. Storm may be a little more intense (slower) than models originally advertised. Maybe not a big producer but perhaps a little more than we thought.

  22. Amazing morning out there, for me, so far, this is the storm of the cold season.

    Briefly, in extreme heavy rain, I’d have to say the visibility was under 1/4 mile.

  23. strongest winds occured mainly south of boston. and areas south of the mass pike reports of 80 mph wind gusts.
    sundays storm look weak with only light snow
    tuesday storm is worth watching

    1. Sunday may be a little more than we think. Not huge but a chance for a couple of inches. Then a Tues-Weds event and maybe one for next weekend.

  24. The wind forecast is verifying but geez I should said “isolated gusts above hurricane force” .. 😉

    1. Yeah it was bad! Funny unless it’s just a lull they literally just turned off 10 minutes or so ago. Nothing.

  25. Wild morning. The worst is about over ‘cept for the Cape.

    I’ll be mobile for several hours – try to check in if I can.

    Be back mid afternoon otherwise.

    Have a great day all!

  26. Wow…so happy…not one leaf in my driveway…I have no idea why as there are plenty on the border but for some reason the wind didn’t move them. So my garage drainage grate worked fine!

  27. Wind really roared all night – I noticed it especially between 4 a.m. and 6:30 a.m. I can’t remember the wind that strong in a long time. Worse than Sandy, maybe like Irene. About 1/2 hr. ago the wind suddenly calmed way down. Our lights dimmed at around 11:00 last night very briefly. Some mets. were saying that at this time of yr., it’s a little unusual for a cold front to be this strong. This stuff does happen, ‘though. What sometimes concerns me is the frequency of the unusual weather. Time will tell.

      1. Me too! I was thinking of that listening to the wind earlier! Now that would have been something! 🙂

  28. What a night. We have stuff from the deck all over our yard. Haven’t looked out front yet.

    For Sunday…….if we can’t cheer the PATS I’d say we deserve to cheer a storm that is sizable.

  30. Good morning all.

    Survived the “Big” wind with only one trash barrel being blown over. No loss of power.

    Been watching the evolution of the Sunday event. I thought I would show
    4 GFS snow maps from Yesterday’s 12 through today’s 06 Z:

    Yesterday 12Z
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013013012&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=102
    Yesterday 18Z
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013013018&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=102
    Today’s 0Z
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013013100&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=108
    Today’s 6Z:
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013013106&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=108

    If it changes much more, the bulk of the snow will be North and East. 😀

      1. John,

        For the immediate Boston Area, you are correct. Somewhat more
        to the North and East.

        Looking at the trend here, it looks like it wants to develop more
        and more to the North with each run. If this trend continues, most snow will be in Maine with not much at all in our area. 😀

        Need to keep an eye on this one.

        1. I can’t tell how far west that pocket of heavier snow extends – just past 495 or maybe (hopefully) 95?

            1. I’m with you, Matt! We need a GOOD storm – plowable, with snow that sticks around for a while!

      1. I don’t think so. Looked at Ch. 5 doppler radar which shows storms, lightning, etc. Can’t seem to find those options on Ch. 4. But it looks like some strong winds may be accompanying some rain heading towards Lowell area.

      1. It would – espec. while we have this temp. mild air mass. Went out for a brief walk earlier – just to enjoy mild temps. before winter comes back!

      2. Thought we would have last night (early this morning) when the rain started about 2am in the 2:30-5am hours, but nope 🙁 I even watched out the window for lightning!

  32. OS, with the trend going north, are we now looking at precip issues south of Boston? Is that the reason for more snow N and W?

    1. Ace,

      In my opinion, still no issues with precip type. Just most of energy/moisture
      would be to the North. So far it is just an observed trend. It’s Thursday and
      we’re discussing a Sunday to Monday event. Still time. BUT I don’t like the trend. 😀

      1. Hmmm, thanks OS. Sorry, been out of the game for a bit so havent checked guidance in a while. Seems like a small window of opportunity for this system to develop and a small area of heaviest snowfall potential much like the norlun trough “event” recently. Hopefully this time we have better results.

      2. I like this trend we are seeing!

        The trend this winter of pushing a storm further north so we get hit and then as we get closer to the event it pushed far south so we get the 1-3″ coatings this year. So if its already showing heavier precip to the north of us on the runs now we may expect that to slip into our area on the model run early Saturday.

    1. Meaning Boston, can’t be Charlie. No rain with this one. Look for the runs to support this, more so tomorrow’s run. It is early and may have been premature for me to give a number but thats how it looked this morning, for Boston that is with 3-6 more. I’m comfortable making a gut call that she starts turning and gives us a shot at a moderate snow event, long duration. I’m not putting to much stock in what the computer says now. The models famous this winter for changing there minds.

      1. I had heard that but thanks Charlie – there is usually a list of wind speed per city/town but I don’t know where to find it

  35. I think this storm has rain for the 95 corridor and snow well inland, I wasn’t Looking at the wrong day haha, have a nice day, I think storm is gonna be a little to strong and bring in a easterly wind, that how I saw it yesterday and that’s how I see it today 🙂

    1. Wachusett has had a tough year so far. They have missed out on the snow events up in far northern NE and the ones closer to the south coast. My aunt and uncle get season tix there every year and have only gone a total of 10 times in the past 2 years. This year has been ok, but very icy as man-made snow can often get packed. They are seriously considering not getting them anymore 🙁

  38. Nearly 70,000 cl&p customers are without power in CT this morning. 25% of my town is out and schools are closed here today. Quite a wild night!

    1. That means were getting nailed. The storm would be Sunday, the models will be changing there tune. They probably will go back and forth. There is a good possibility here folks.

      1. i would say that if Neww or weather channal don’t say big storm comming, when one of them say it watch it go poof. if they do not then it will be big 😉

      2. John its irresponsible for you to say that with any degree of certainty. You hope it snows, you wish it snows and leave it at that.

        1. Actually I was looking at the models coastal. Must of been reading it right if old salt agreed. Why is it coastal that your always coming on here starting crap with somebody, I believe I’m always respectfully towards you, please do the same. I’ve worked hard on learning the maps. Was going by what I saw and gut feeling. Have a nice day.

            1. You know what I mean. You have been rude to me as well as others here, not mentioning name’s. You dont like what somebody says and you act out on them. I’m not taking crap from you period. Everyone else here gets along, you do the same. I don’t like posting a post like this, but I’m telling you I’m done. You have been rude to me on and off for two years. If you don’t like what I say Just ignore it and we wont have any problems. I now hope we can move past this. The information I was looking at was the nam, if I read it right.

      1. Here is the Ukmet for Sunday Evening: (Off Shore)

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=096

        Canadian for Sunday Evening: (Pretty Pathetic!)

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=096&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=096&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

        Euro for Sunday Evening:

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=096

        GFS for Sunday Eve:

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_090_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

        That about sizes up the situation. Take your pick.
        😀

        1. 😀

          We’ll probably get something, although it “may” end up
          as another “Coat” system. 😀

  40. Raining and very windy in Sudbury now. Temp. is 55 degrees. It got dark but now a bit brighter. Sky kind of pretty – brighter off to northwest. Whoa – we just got big gust of wind, wish I had a weather station! Gust prob’ly 55 mph or so. I really do love when the weather changes fast! 🙂

    1. I think TK said something similar re: liking the changes in the weather. Didn’t mean to steal your “thunder” TK! 🙂

    2. If you look at the 0Z and 6Z GFS on wundermaps, the precip type option shows rain for the coastal plain. I know the map is kinda crude but it does show rain. Also shows the 850mb temps cold enough to support snow, but the surface temp does not. That might be what he’s seeing.

      1. Ace,

        Those options on the Wundermap have been f’d up for awhile now. I don’t even look at them. Just look at the MSLP and the 850mb.

        😀

  45. will echo tjammer – wind blown rain doesn’t begin to describe – wind has really picked up again. As rainshine said – sky is very interesting – goes from dark to light

  47. Sun is starting to shine in Plymouth. It was certainly a wild night. Thanfully we never lost power though.

  48. The Plot Thickens.

    Here is today’s 12Z NAM at 84 hours (Sunday Evening)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013013112&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

    Here is the 500MB chart to go with it. Notice the Digging going on here.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013013112&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    Here is the NAM snow map. (obviously not the entire event at all.)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013013112&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    I know it’s the NAM at 84 hours, but it looks like it wants to make this a moderate
    to “perhaps” heavy snow event.

    Oh and to answer the rain/snow question, here are the 2M temps.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013013112&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    It ain’t gonna rain.

  50. Starting to clear a bit – see slivers of blue – temp dropped from 56 to 44.4 – had recent wind gust of 41

  51. It is 40.8 degrees in Sudbury – according to Willow Hill School on my husband’s Weather Bug. Opened window – big change. Back to winter! Now let’s get some snow to make these cold temps. worthwhile! Off to do some errands. May post later – have a good day everyone!

  52. I am liking the NAM thus far, although as we all know it can be suspect this far out. With that said, I’ll take the NAM over any of the other models so far this winter. Something is brewing, I just hope we can finally get a storm worthy of a Weather Channel naming!

    1. I with you on that. Now we need to see the rest of the 12Z runs.
      It certainly is getting interesting, but it could still end up OTS like all
      of the rest of them. 😀

    1. snifffff – no I didn’t. I think that’s why I didn’t sleep all night. I kept waiting and hoping and didn’t want to miss it 🙁

          2. Hate to say it, but maybe Charlie was right, maybe there is some rain along the coast, or at least some sleet or very wet snow which would cut down on the totals?

            2. I see mostly about .5 inch along the coast
              except .5 to .75 way down South shore
              and perhaps Up to an inch way out on the Cape. So, perhaps some rain/mix far South shore and Cape and Islands. 😀

  57. 12z gfs looks like a 1″ of liquid on the coast. But it looks like it is a little closer to develop and Maine gets crushed.

  59. The GFS is just catching up with the NAM…I feel good about this, don’t see any rain with this one.

  60. I have a good feeling too. If it can develop a bit sooner, we would be in for at least a moderate snowfall.

  62. I gotta say, i like the trend, not only bc its trending more snow, but bc its been a gradual trend. If the GFS has nothing one run and then the next it was showing a blockbuster, then id be more skeptical. This has been a slowly progressing trend which is good to see and offers more weight IMO. I just hope the other models catch on so the NWS doesnt discount this.

  63. And to think guys I was being irresponsible, looks like what I was saying. Old salty as I was saying earlier rain probably will not be an issue in Boston, maybe not even Plymouth county once you hit the canal maybe. As I was saying earlier before I have a good feeling on this one.

    1. You have no foundation to your hocus pocus predictions. Your predictions lack foundation and credibility and are only based on wishing and wanting.

        1. Take care coastal. I dealt with guys like you before, you just can’t be wrong. It’s funny how my hocus pocus just matches exactly what the nam is saying, the same nam that I told you I saw this morning that I told you I was learning how to read. Take care, I give up.

          1. John…just remember we are 3 days out so a lot could change. I wouldn’t consider it a “nailed” forecast just yet.

  64. Those temps would not bring rain to Boston maybe outer cape. I do like trend as well. I wish the EURO was more on board, but it’s had it’s issues in the short range.

    1. I agree Hadi. The EURO has not been great in this time frame. My guess is the 12Z doesnt offer anything different from what its been spitting out lately

  65. Sitting in car. Rain squall ending. Sun pops out briefly. Rare rainbow appears in the NNW sky. 10:07AM. A CD full of music from TWC’s Weatherscan composed by my friend Trammell Starks playing. Magic moment.

  67. Hello everyone I hope everyone is having a splendid day
    I am continuing to watch the guidance and different discussions and I’m still leaning towards a mix along the coast, the Boston to Providence corridor should remain snow,, yes I said snow, east and south r gonna have mixing issues if not a plain rain on cape, I’m still leaning towards under 3 inches but thought yesterday it would be closer to an inch but today I’m leaning closer to 3 inches for the Sunday timeframe,, a lot of details need to be ironed out as its still a ways away, be back later 🙂

      1. And as of now, not much snow at that, however, look how
        the Sunday event has evolved. Perhaps the 5th/6th situation
        will evolve as well????

  68. 12Z Canadian all over the place for Sunday/Mondy. Spits out some qpf, but does not
    show any organized system like GFS.

    On the other hand, it shows a nice organized system for the 5th/6th with decent
    qpf.

    Will post later.
    😀

    1. 12Z Canadian Sunday Evening:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=096

      12Z Canadian Tuesday AM:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=108&fixhh=1&hh=132

      12Z Canadian Tuesday Evening:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

    1. Hadi,

      Looked at the Euro with the 24 Hour increments.
      At one point it is down the coast, and on the next frame it is
      in the Maritimes as a bomb 24 hrs. later. Waiting for Wundermap to see where
      it is in between. I “Suspect” a bit closer to the coast than the 0Z run,
      but it is very difficult to tell.

      1. Most definitely a “trend” to snow. Doesn’t mean it will come to
        fruition. 😀

        Now onto to the 2 18Z runs and of course ALL of the 0Z runs. 😀

            1. I’m trying Hadi but the atmosphere just seems to have a channel cut in it OTS.

              That image O.S. posted looks identical to so many others I swear he posted a model run from last week or the week before or the week before that…..

              I wish I had a little more of your positive metaphysics attitude, it might help me in other areas of my life!

  71. A solid 1-3 inches for most areas is in the cards for Sunday. Not buying into the more robust GFS. This will be a grazing. As for the event next week, more of the same. Storm phases too far to our east to give southern new england significant snow. Unfortunately, it appears down east Maine will fair better than us from both events.

  72. I wouldn’t even bother stressing over models until late Friday/Saturday morning. Every run has it either OTS or a jucier hit, then they reverse on the next run. Agree with alisonarod if I had to guess.

    1. That really was something last night wasn’t it. My kids’ snowman was the size of a grapefruit at 6:00 this morning.

      All I’ve got left is about 4″ on one side of my driveway.

      I drove by Wachusett this morning to check out the damage. There was so much water coming down the slopes they could have passed for a fish ladder. They’ve got some work ahead of them.

      1. And that’s pretty far inland, come closer to Boston and u can’t find any leftover snowman, it’s completely gone here

      2. Up where u live u average 15 inches more of snow than Boston, 50 miles wnw and 20 miles north of Worcester, that’s New England country 🙂

  75. Re-thinking the impact of the systems upcoming…

    Late Saturday night / Sunday: Light to POSSIBLY moderate snowfall, but leaning light for now.

    Tuesday: Miss.

    End of next week: Potential coastal storm.

    I like the pattern becoming more snowy with time as we move thru Feb into March. Spring will be late-arriving in 2013.

    That does not change the fact that the OVERALL precipitation pattern is dry and will continue to be so for the long term, even tho I expect more precip. events in the next 6 to 8 weeks.

    2. Thanks TK – I am hoping for March to come in like the proverbial lion and go out like a lamb. We’d have the best of both worlds while at the beach!! In the end, we will love whatever comes our way !

        1. It was one of the reasons we planned our get away for March – we thought it would be tons of fun to have Easter at the beach!

  76. 18Z NAM really digging nicely at 500mb. 😀
    Even so, looks like most of the action will be off shore.
    Waiting for run to complete.

    1. Here’s the 18Z NAM at 84 hours:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013013118&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

      total snowfall map to that point: (event still going on)

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013013118&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

      So that would equate to “about” 2 or 3 inches up to this point with it still
      coming down. So probably ends up a 2-4 or 3-5 inch event “should” this
      model run verify AND we know it is the 18Z NAM. 😀

      1. Hey,

        Call me nuts, but doesn’t that surface representation
        Smack of the proverbial “Norlun Trough”???? 😀

        1. JMA JP35 Model Forecast for Sunday AM:

          http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif

          JMA JP35 Model Forecast for Monday AM:

          http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif

          I know it is the JMA, but for kicks I present it.
          If you take the coastal developing down the coast
          on the first map and then compare a path of how
          it “might” have gotten to where it is on the 2nd map,
          I would argue that is past “near’ the benchmark.

          Of course it could go out more and curl back up, but with the winds aloft, don’t think so. 😀

  77. The sky is awesome here NW of Boston. Cold air cumulus/stratocumulus with snow virga, and the sun behind it. I just took a great photo. One of my favorite winter sky looks.

    1. My grandson just came running into the room to tell me to come look at the sky………..budding met???

      1. I gotta get my photo site up and running so I can post them here. Only on FB at the moment. 😉

        1. Very easy to post a photo from facebook.
          Click on it and view the properties. You should be
          able to see an address that ends in .jpg. Copy and past it here. Viola.

          😀

            1. Awesome. I couldn’t get that to work before but now I think I know why.

              Oh you guys are in trouble now with my photos.. 😛

            3. That picture is glorious, OS – when was it taken? I can’t wait to see pictures, I love them!

  78. Updated discussion from Taunton regarding Sunday storm. They are not buying the 12z GFS OR Euro. They note the lack of blocking and all teleconnections being positive. Thus, they expect progressive, moisture starved systems…

    WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC TRENDS OUTLINED IN THE OVERVIEW ABOVE…AM
    LEANING AWAY FROM THE 31.12Z GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW. WILL BE INTERESTED
    IN THE 01.00Z RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS CONTINUING AGREEMENT OF A
    QUICKLY MATURING SURFACE LOW. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE 31.0Z ECMWF.

    FEEL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH AN ELONGATED/DOUBLE-BARREL
    SURFACE LOW SETUP…WHILE MODERATE SNOW WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN AND
    SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
    FAVORABLE LIFT AND BETTER MOISTURE FETCH /SOME RAIN AND SNOW ISSUES
    MAY IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/.
    CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS…SNOW MAY HAVE A
    FLUFFINESS FACTOR TO IT…SO WHILE A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
    EXPECTED REGION- WIDE…LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /ADVISORY LEVEL/
    ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

  81. Look at the write up from Grey NWS office

    CONFIDENCE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING FOR THE SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH
    THROUGH THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NEW GFS AND EURO
    GUIDANCE BOTH FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN A
    CLASSIC COASTAL LOW TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY
    MORNING. WITH THE LOW OFF SHORE… THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING THE
    RETURN OF SNOW TO THE REGION. WHILE THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHAPING
    UP.. THE QPF AND THUS SNOWFALL STILL HAS A LARGE SPREAD. THE EURO
    IS MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH 3-5 IN OF SNOW INTO PWM WHILE THE GFS
    HAS MUCH MORE MOISTURE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARNING EVENT. AS
    WITH MOST COASTAL SYSTEMS, THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME STILL FOR A
    RIGHT TURN OUT TO SEA, AND WITH THE INITIATING SHORT WAVE JUST
    BARELY ONSHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA, HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
    TOWARDS A NICE SNOW EVENT BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS AND WINDS SLIGHTLY
    FROM GFS GUIDANCE. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL
    IN QUESTION, GALE WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS AS THERE
    IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS TO REACH AT LEAST GALE, WITH
    STORM FORCE WINDS STILL A CONSIDERATION AS WELL.

    1. Hadi, As I said, down east Maine will fair better than we will. The trough digs a little too late to give southern new england appreciable snow and phases to our north and east thus favoring Maine for heavier snow.

    1. It’s not the best shot of the rainbow because it literally lasted about 30 seconds and my phone was being wonky about opening the camera.

    1. Don’t worry Vicki. We have to come out the other side to go back in again later this year. 🙂

        1. No no. I’m not looking forward. I thought the time went too fast. Pahhhhleeezzee. I’d happily make every day 48 hours.

          Seriously my point was badly made but it seems as is when I get older the time is gone before I can blink.

  84. It’s a New England winter sky now….grey sky, dark grey clouds with the even darker bare tree limbs in the forefront. This is the kind of day that just makes me smile…..well every day makes me smile but some just wider than others

  85. http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/221839_10151497474387265_934563416_n.jpg

    This shot isn’t the best either, because I took it at a red light. But my caption for it is “At the intersection of Washington Street & Cloud Street in Woburn MA” … The cloud street is visible on the right of the photo. I wish I’d had a chance to get a more straight on shot of the 2 main cloud streets that were out there this afternoon for about 2 hours. They were impressive.

  86. light snow event on sunday.. im sticking to what i said earlier.
    just snow showers for the tuesday system.

    1. What is snow virga. I thought it was snow not falling but have no idea why. How do you know its not just a dark cloud?

      1. Snow virga is the same as virga caused by rain. It’s precipitation falling from the cloud but not reaching the ground.

        When the cloud was a little further out there, I could see the shaft of snow coming out of the base but completely disappearing about half way to the ground. The radar at the time in the same area showed a very light snow shower which based on echo strength was not reaching the ground.

      1. Longshot. Didnt you want to take over the announcement for the monthly announcement of who is closest in snow total?

        1. I went from last year’s winner to a “longshot” for this year. I need one dumpster to come along. Please, if you don’t mind, post the list along with the actual Logan total thru Jan. Thaks.

          1. I will be happy to in the morning once computer is up and running. As always don’t hesitate to remind me Want a hint for the name of the person to announce 😆

        2. I know its not me. But tk seems to think February Will be snowy as do I. All we need is a few big ones to get those numbers to rise. I don’t however agree with the late spring, I think its early. We defiantly seem to be in a snow groove. Neither Harvey or Pete would throw out a number for Sunday. Pete seemed to be a tad hesitant on Sunday, maybe it was me. I’m going to read his blog now.

  88. Pete is tossing 3-5 in his head but won’t put it to print yet. I was saying 3-6 earlier. Eastern sections to get brunt. Also said needs to wait to ser how close it comes. North may get robbed this go around.

    2. Thinking it might end up further offshore. Only basing this on what we have seen this winter thus far. Seems when the cold has arrived, it has come with a trof position that has kept activity south and east of us, while the very cold air has poured in. Maybe it will be different this time. 🙂

        1. Guess on my part – not Toms. BTW south shore folks they seem to have caught the arsonist in your area. Thankfully

          1. Yes, great news. Father and stepson, nice family. It’s definitely them as they were at the scene in Marshfield and also GPS tracked them to last nights fire. These scumbags light the fire and get off watching the fire appreatis arrive and put out the fire. Someone could have been killed. I know firefighters and also know one in Marshfield. There was a suspicious fire in humarock where a Marshfield firefighter got seriously hurt. One for the good guys.

            1. There were two in Humarock that were arson. I was a bit nervous about being there as I’m sure many who own the summer homes are and everyone else in the southeast

  89. It’s interesting, normally there’s focus on storm surge, but in the winter with a howling west wind, some of the water is literally blown out of Long Island Sound. Thus, there is an advisory for the sound for lower than normal water levels. Sure enough, checking the tide gauge in a place such as Bridgeport, CT, it’s running about 1.5 to 2 ft BELOW the expected level.

  91. im saying less than 3 inches across eastern sections of mass mainly near i95 and east. less than an inch else where.

    1. I can say with high certainty that it will snow early Sun morning, if I had to put a percentage number beside each accumulating number it would be 1 inch=30% 2 inch=45% 3 inch=25%, will c

      1. Im hearing Sunday afternoon, I would prefer morning so I can be home for the game. Harvey said really quick mover.

  93. I dont think I can convey how happy I am that January ends tonight. At Boston’s latitude, there’s 10 hrs of sunlight starting tomorrow. 4 weeks from tomorrow is March 1st…….. during February, there will be a nearly 10 degree increase of the solar angle, baseball’s spring training begins, there’s a lot more light by month’s end at both ends of the day and yet, lots of snow and cold are still very possible. Everyone’s weather wishes have a chance to be met this month.

    1. Works for me minus the snow. I’m sick of it already. This will be the third weekend in a row that were waiting for a storm, I’m ready to move forward. My son kicks me out the door for the snow. He says dad Disney. Although the other night he really missed me. He was all excited when I told him the other night I was heading home soon, than I had to call back to say I had to stay.

      1. Yes, that must have been tough to have to turn around. Interesting, I didnt realize there was a pattern of snow on the weekends.

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